Alternative learning curve models
Subtitle: an analysis of forecast error
By: O. Douglas Moses
Contributors: Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Dept. of Systems Management
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School; Available from National Technical Information Service
Published: 1994
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif; Springfield, Va
Language: eng
Number of pages: 33
Subjects: FORECASTING; LEARNING CURVES; ERROR ANALYSIS; COST  MODELS
Other titles: NPS-AS-94-001.
Description: Numerous learning curve models have been offered in the literature and used in practice.      This paper selects five learning curve models which differ with respect to the pattern of      learning assumed to exist, and investigates the forecast accuracy of the varying models      under varying circumstances. The broad objectives are to identify conditions which may      affect model accuracy, documenting the manner in which forecast errors for each model      depend on those conditions, and suggest which of the five models may be more or less      accurate under a given set of conditions. Tests are conducted using annual cost and      quantity data from a large sample of major aerospace weapon system programs. Learning      curve, Cost progress model, Cost estimation, Forecasting accuracy.
Notes: Title from cover.

"NPS-AS-94-001."

"January 1994."

AD A278 801.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 31)

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