What do consumers believe about future gasoline prices?
By: Soren T. Anderson, Ryan Kellogg, James M. Sallee
Contributors: Kellogg, Ryan; Sallee, James M.; National Bureau of Economic Research
Series: NBER working paper series -- working paper 16974; Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) -- working paper no. 16974.
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research
Published: 2011
Place of publication: Cambridge, MA
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Description: "An NBER digest for this paper is available.Researchers estimating the demand for energy-using durable goods must specify consumers' beliefs about future energy prices.  Policy-relevant inference hinges on this specification, yet there is little direct evidence on the nature of consumer beliefs.  We provide such evidence by analyzing two decades of data on gasoline price expectations from the Michigan Survey of Consumers.  We find that average consumer beliefs are indistinguishable from a no-change forecast.  This finding has important implications for the literature on consumer valuation of energy efficiency, and it implies that researchers are likely justified in assuming a no-change forecast, as is common practice"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Notes: Title from PDF file as viewed on 6/30/2011.

Includes bibliographical references.

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