The end of large current account deficits, 1970-2002
Subtitle: are there lessons for the United States?
By: Sebastian Edwards.
Contributors: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Series: NBER working paper series ;; working paper 11669; Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) ;; working paper no. 11669.
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research
Published: 2005
Place of publication: Cambridge, MA
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Subjects: Budget deficits -- United States.; Balance of payments -- United States.; Investments, Foreign -- United States.; United States -- Economic conditions -- 20th century.
Description: "The future of the U.S. current account--and thus of the U.S. dollar--depend on whether foreign investors will continue to add U.S. assets to their investment portfolios.  However, even under optimistic scenarios, the U.S. current account deficit is likely to go through a significant reversal at some point in time.  This adjustment may be as large of 4% to 5% of GDP.  In order to have an idea of the possible consequences of this type of adjustment, I have analyzed the international evidence on current account reversals using both non-parametric techniques as well as panel regressions.  The results from this empirical investigation indicate that major current account reversals have tended to result in large declines in GDP growth.  I also analyze the large U.S. current account adjustment of 1987-1991"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Notes: Includes bibliographical references.
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Mode of access: World Wide Web.