Faculty forecast and planning model for the Naval Postgraduate School
By: by Brian K. Shipman
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School; Available from National Technical Information Service
Published: 1997
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif; Springfield, Va
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Number of pages: 92
Description: This thesis develops a model for the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) to forecast future tenure-track faculty size and distribution. It enables decision makers to analyze the effects of tenure and retirement policies as well as determine recruitment levels to achieve and maintain a desired number of faculty members. The model estimates faculty retention characteristics, or continuation rates based upon the length of federal service (LFS) associated with historic loss data. These continuation rates are applied to a cross- sectional faculty profile to predict faculty legacies, i.e. the number of faculty who will continue service at NPS. Results show that faculty levels can be predicted with relative certainty out to a two year horizon. Additionally, the results show how salary increases in the early 1990's induced a delay in faculty retirements. We also present an embellishment to the model which incorporates age at loss as well as LFS to forecast only retirements. The forecasts from this model are not as conclusive as those obtained from the original.
Notes: Thesis advisor(s): Kneale T. Marshall.

"March 1997."

Thesis (M.S. in Operations Research)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 1997.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 31-33).

"Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited."

Also available in print.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

System requriements: Adobe Acrobat reader.