The signal and the noise
Subtitle: The art and science of prediction
Publisher: Penguin Books
Published: 2012
Place of publication: London, UK
Language: eng
Format: Hardcover
Number of pages: 544
ISBN-13: 9781846147524
Copyright date: 2012
Description: Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we often fail to foresee hugely significant events. In The Signal and the Noise , the New York Times' political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of prediction, revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball. In his quest to distinguish the true signal from a universe of noisy data, Silver visits hundreds of expert forecasters, in fields ranging from the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to terrorism. What lies behind their success? And why do so many predictions still fail? By analysing the rare prescient forecasts, and applying a more quantitative lens to everyday life, Silver distils the essential lessons of prediction. We live in an increasingly data-driven world, but it is harder than ever to detect the true patterns amid the noise of information. In this dazzling insider's tour of the world of forecasting, Silver reveals how we can all develop better foresight in our everyday lives.
Table of contents: label: Introduction
title: 1; label: 1. A catastrophic failure of prediction
title: 19; label: 2. Are you smarter than a television pundit?
title: 47; label: 3. All I care about is W's and L's
title: 74; label: 4. For years you've been telling us that rain is green
title: 108; label: 5. Desperately seeking signal
title: 142; label: 6. How to drown in three feet of water
title: 176; label: 7. Role models
title: 204; label: 8. Less and less and less wrong
title: 232; label: 9. Rage against the machines
title: 262; label: 10. The poker bubble
title: 294; label: 11. If you can't beat 'em...
title: 329; label: 12. A climate of healthy skepticism
title: 370; label: 13. What you don't know can hurt you
title: 412; label: Conclusion
title: 446; label: Acknowledgments
title: 455; label: Notes
title: 459; label: Index
title: 515