Learning curve and rate adjustment models
Subtitle: comparative prediction accuracy under varying conditions
By: O. Douglas Moses
Contributors: Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Dept. of Administrative Sciences
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School; Available from National Technical Information Service
Published: 1990
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif; Springfield, Va
Language: eng
Number of pages: 34
Subjects: COST ANALYSIS; ACCURACY
Other titles: NPS-AS-91-001.
Description: Learning curve models have gained widespread acceptance as a technique for analyzing and      forecasting the cost of items produced from a repetitive process. Considerable research has      investigated augmenting the traditional learning curve model with the addition of a production      rate variable, creating a rate adjustment model. This study compares the predictive accuracy      of the learning curve and rate adjustment models. A simulation methodology is used to vary      conditions along seven dimensions. Forecast errors are analyzed and compared under the      various simulated conditions using ANOVA. Overall results indicate that neither model      dominates; each is more accurate under some conditions. Conditions under which each      model tends to result in lower forecast errors are identified and discussed. Keywords:      Learning curves, Cost estimates, Cost models, Cost analysis, Production rate, Predictions,      Forecasting. (RWJ)
Notes: Cover title.

"NPS-AS-91-001."

"November 1990."

AD A230 075.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 32-34)

aq/aq cc:9116 03/27/97.