rrenaud/dominionstats — pull request #18 by rspeer (2011-11-27 02:55:14+00:00)
Title: Experimental leaderboard

I'd be interested in calculating TrueSkill for players (and, in the process, openings) using this code. It includes time-based decay toward 25 in "sigma". It also multiplies beta by 3, increasing it from 4.16 to 12.5, based on my conclusion that DougZ must have done something similar after he put up his code. Without this, everyone's skill is in the 15-30 range.

It seems my copy of the game database is far from complete. It doesn't contain any Hinterlands games, even though I've updated the code and run the update_loop; more notably, it only contains 876901 games total, which is less than a quarter of the number of recorded games. Running this on the real database may be enlightening.