tricycle/predictionbook — Issue #16: Add more guidance for new users
Author: ivankozik
Created: 2011-11-18 07:25:08+00:00
State: open

A little bit of help could mention:

* How to write a good, precise, easy-to-judge prediction
* Why people make personal predictions (more short-term predictions = faster to calibrate). Personal predictions are bewildering some new users.
* How to multiply probabilities, add independent probabilities, do a Bayesian update
* Links to LW articles about PredictionBook
* Other relevant links to LW
* Links to info about conjunction fallacy
* How to think through many future possibilities; perhaps some internal dialogue from a predictor could be written down.