Climate change affects every aspect of life, damaging food systems, displacing millions, shaping the future of conflict. Climate change is a story of extremes, increasing temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, weather extremes becoming everyday weather. The majority of climate security risks today revolve around water distress. Climate change will continue to affect the availability of natural resources around the world. While some regions will likely see their water supply drop under probable CO2 emission scenarios, other parts will likely get more water over coming decades. But these changes will often manifest in extreme ways, such as prolonged dry seasons followed by erratic and intense precipitation. How do these changes affect marginalized communities and shape conflict dynamics? An extreme climate leads to extremely harsh living conditions. Across this a hell, changing rainfall patterns have increased competition among farmers and herders over fertile soil, contributing to increased violence between the two groups, such as the deadly 2018 clashes in Nigeria. Across the horn, more frequent and intense weather events, droughts and floods alike cause massive displacement and instability, like the 2020 floods in South Sudan that displaced people and helped fuel violence in equatoria. Across the world, governments and non-state actors like Gihari's and gangs also use climate change strategically from Aja Bap exploiting people's anger at the state's failure to bolster their ranks in influence in Somalia, two gangs in Mexico providing services in the aftermath of disasters in a bit to win support. Climate change is clearly a threat, but under the right circumstances it can provide an opening for cooperation between conflict parties. We identify these risks and opportunities by blending field insight with climate science in state of the art quantitative methods using satellite imagery, climate forecasting data, and spatial analysis. Visit crisisgroup.org slash climate to learn more.