The Three South Caucasus nations, since their restored independence in 1991, have formed an important region for global geopolitics. With its own instability and being at the crossroads of three major and emerging powers, the countries are subject to a great deal of foreign involvement in their borders, as they also try to maintain their own sovereignty. With this in mind, why are the Caucasus states so important, and who, if anyone, will become dominant in the region? To give some context, here's a brutally simplified history of the Caucasus. Historically, the Caucasus states have had their own independent regimes, though they're always looming the shadow of greater powers in the region. Even back in antiquity, Armenia saw itself caught between the Persian and Roman empires. In more recent times, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan's sovereignty had been challenged by the Russian, Ottoman, and Persian empires. During the early to mid-1800s, the Russian Empire was able to secure its foothold in the region, stamping out most of its competitors. This security was briefly disrupted during the Russian Revolution and Civil War, or the Caucasus states once again regained their sovereignty in 1918, but only very briefly as Red Army forces were able to stabilize the region under their control by 1922. There was a ton going on there during this period, and it really deserves a video of its own. Anyways, the Transcoctations Socialist Federative Soviet Republic officially became an entity within the Soviet Union in 1922, though only lasted until 1936, when each of the modern Caucasus countries were given their own Soviet Socialist Republics. They once again achieved independence in 1991, though this independence has been racked by war and instability. As I explained in an earlier video, Georgia has been facing trouble with the independence movements of Akhazia and South Asisha, with both movements receiving support from Russia, straining relations between it and Georgia. However, the most drawn-out conflict in the region is that between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Nagorno-Karabakh, an autonomous Armenian majority region of Azerbaijan, has seen the brunt of this conflict, with major periods of conflicts happening between 1992 and 1994 and in 2020, where Armenian forces lost much of their gains in the prior war. Relations between the three countries are complicated in the modern day. The most easily understandable relationship in the region is that between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which is one of great enmity. Georgia has generally better relations with Azerbaijan, though it doesn't necessarily have bad relations with Armenia, but in essence, Georgia is far too occupied with its own internal issues to get too involved with the Armenia as a Vajan dispute. What is clear is that the three Caucasian nations have far better relations with countries outside of the region than within it. Azerbaijan's closest partner is its brother nation, Turkey, and it also has good relations with Ukraine and more distantly the US. Armenia mostly harbors good relations with Russia, who they generally see as protectors from Azerbaijan. However, in 2020, this was not necessarily the cases I will get into later, though they also were on good terms with Iran and other Eurasian Union and CSTO members. Georgia's closest partner is Ukraine. As the countries face similar internal and external issues, they also have good relations with the EU and the US. These external forces will play an important role in the region's politics, having a secure energy source is important for a country to thrive, and Azerbaijan has a great abundance of crude oil that it can send across its borders to earn a buck or two, and secure these energy interests of another nation. Turkey has already capitalized off of this with a pipeline running from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey, being in operation since 2006. The avoiding of Armenia from this pipeline can be clearly seen. I've also explained the growing influence of Turkey in another one of my videos, so I suggest you watch that one too. Russia, despite not having sovereign control over the Caucasus nations, still holds a deal of soft power there. Georgia's foreign policies in deadlock, as if it does something against Russia's interests they can use occupied Abkazia and South of C-Shirts to push a harder line in Georgia. Russia also has a considerable leverage over Armenia and Azerbaijan, brokering a ceasefire between the two countries, and currently their peacekeeping forces are deployed in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. They did not overtly support Armenia during this war, as part of the current strain ties between the countries, starting in 2018 when Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan took office after a wave of protests. Though Russia and Turkey are the main contenders in the Caucasus currently, Iran can also work to grow its influence there too. In the event that relations get worse between Armenia and Russia, Iran has and can prove itself to be a viable partner to Armenia. Azerbaijan and Iran could also have a potentially strong partnership due to their proximity and shared culture. The territory of Armenia and Azerbaijan were previously under Iranian control for centuries, and most recently under the Kajar dynasty, and through diplomacy and soft power, Iran has the possibility to return these countries to its sphere. Switching to a demographic view, we can see that Georgia and Armenia are in a similar predicament to the Baltic states, with a low fertility rate, high immigration following the collapse of the Soviet Union and aging populations. Also like the Baltics, the population decline has relatively stabilized in recent years, especially in Armenia, which is seeing a unique influx of ethnic Armenians returning to the Motherland. Azerbaijan, in the other hand, has demographic trends more similar to the Central Asian states, with steadily growing populations low immigration after the Soviet collapse in a relatively young population, though Azerbaijan's fertility rate has recently fallen below replacement levels. Georgia and Armenia are the countries that have to worry about their demographics the most, as the slowly falling populations along with their aging could lead to economic and security concerns that come with having a small, young and working population. It is encouraging to see however that the population decline has been halted, at least for now, especially for Armenia, as Armenians are returning to the country. In conclusion, the Caucasus nations find themselves at the crossroads of several emerging powers trying to gain influence, but the people of these nations don't seem to be going away anytime soon, as they have prevailed for thousands of years, either under a wide array of empires or in their own independent states. Thank you all for watching, be sure to like, subscribe and share this video with all of your friends. Let's get to 5,000 subscribers by September, so please share my content with everyone you know. 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