1.0.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1 The idea of these blog posts is to introduce people to some historic books and reports which I think should be more widely read. To start I'd thought I'd pick a book that for years has been vilified or deliberately ignored any discussion of its content is shrouded in controversy it's the 1972 book the Limits to Growth. My version is a second revised edition from 1974 100 pays are a little more beaten up when I bought it second hand as I refer to it quite a bit in debates. Paul Erlich's The Population Bomb had launched a debate about humans and the environment. Problem was that book is based on pretty poor data. To resolve that lack of evidence, a group of scientists decided to create a properly research model to look at humanity's effects on their finite environment. At this time, systems science, computer models and computer based projection were a very new thing, relatively to learn the stuff by politicians or the public. This new application of mathematics had arisen out of Cold War strategic planning, applying it to global ecological issues was, though, a revolutionary idea. The group outlined its work on page 27. The model we have constructed is, like every other model, imperfect, oversimplified and unfinished. We are well aware of its shortcomings, but we believe this isn't most used for model now available for dealing with problems. As the book goes to great lengths to explain, rather than linear projection, the modeling core-perrated feedback loops. This means that on each iteration of the model, the change in values depends upon recent, not the initial conditions. A functional diagram of the model is shown on pages 110 and 111. The basic issue here is, exponential growth, which is the basis of the human economy, isn't linear. As humans, we used the tongue-in, pounding away a constant rate. Industrial growth increases with time. If a quantity grows at 2% per year, it will double every 35 years. Increase at a 5% per year, and it will double every 14 years. Those involved in research, the Nella and Dennis Modos, Yorgan Randers and William Berens, could not have possibly anticipated the nastiness of the response to their work. In many ways, it prefigured the response to the climate change debate a decade later. The report sent right-wing lobbyists into an apoplexy, and was attacked until the arrival of Agenda 21-20 years later, which gave them a new target to vilify. Though the book showed various options for future growth, I'm going to focus on the standard run, shown in Figure 35. The standard run predicted that, in the middle of the first half of the 21st century, human activity would reach peak and then decline. These results are called Malfusion at the time, a label that is often used today. It was dismissed by the economic lobby. They had come to believe that growth was inexhaustible and would continue forever. This is a modern, ideological reversal of the situation foreseen by the founders of modern economics, Adam Smith and John Stuart Mill, who believed that one day growth would end. As the book comments, Mill for Sawers steady state arising when everyone had as much as they could buy. Smith for Sawers slowly declined as resources were exhausted. The reason why the book is so significant is that, after 50 years, it is the most successful economic projection ever made. Recent research, using the latest data, has shown the results of the standard run to be incredibly accurate. One recent study commented, the empirical data showed a relatively close fit for most of the variables. Another that, as shown, the observed historical data for 1972-2000, most closely matched as simulated results of the standard run for almost all the outputs reported. This scenario results in a global collapse before the middle of this century. The implications of the model are summed up on page 198 of the book. We firmly believe that warnings this book contains are amply justified and that the aims and actions of our present civilization can only aggravate the problems of tomorrow. More significantly, in framing their conclusions, they predated the decolonialization debate today. As the same point 9 in page 198, we unequivocally support the contention that a break imposed on world demographic and economic growth spirals must not lead to a freezing of the status quo of economic development of the world's nations. Is such a proposal were advanced by the rich nations? It will be taken as a final act of neocolonialism. Following the 1972 edition, various updates were published by members of the group. If you want to revisit the text, whilst the origin is truly astounding in its foresight, these later versions are easier to get hold of. Next year's the 50th anniversary of Limits to Growth. Once again, figures in the media, assuming they decide to cover it at all, will most likely do so dismissively. The most curious fact is that the mainstream environmental movement dare not even talk about it in public, some even try to close down such discussions because they are perceived as negative. The Limits to Growth is an example of the human capacity to measure and project ecological impacts. More importantly, the response to it demonstrates the human capacity to ignore bad news by telling noble lies to the public but most importantly to ourselves. Currently, all evidence indicates the prognosis of the Limits to Growth is still unwinding as predicted. Evidently, our societies are unable to deal with that because it has become addicted to growth from material affluence. And like any addict, they will dismiss any message which contradicts that lifestyle.