Thank you very much for having me here today. I'm going to talk about Australia's energy transition, decarbonising Australia's energy and the tipping point where we are currently at. This first slide was put together by Professor Leslie Hughes. In our lifetimes, we may well see significant warming towards the end of it, but it's our kids and our grandchildren who will be saddled with the decisions that we make today. Fortunately, since 2012, when this was put together, we've had the Paris Climate Agreement, and we've had a change in – significant changes in policy, which means it's unlikely that we're going to see the top of these red bands, we're towards the lower end of these red bands now, but we're a long way from the blue. So how are we going in Australia? Well, our energy transition is accelerating. Coal peaked in around 2008. Experts believe that the crossover will happen sometime around 2025-26. We've done this mainly through wind and solar. One of the projects that came out of the Energy Transition Hub, which I'm a member of at Melbourne University, one of those projects is called Open NEM, which allows anybody to log into a system for free and have a look at how our energy system is evolving. Rightly down to the five-minute scale, zooming all the way out to the 22 years now since the National Electricity Market was formed. To have a look at how the mix of energy has been changing, how it changes in different ways in different states, we're in the process now of adding an emissions overlay to that, so you can see how emissions and emissions intensity are changing. And we've recently, I guess, rebuilt the core of the system so we can pull in data from other countries. So expect that over the coming year or so. We're Open NEM will allow you to look at the energy transition happening. In other countries of interest. Now it's been four years this month since Alan Finkel, who was chief scientist, laid down his independent review, nicknamed the Finkel review. One of the outcomes of that review was a direction to AEMO to put together an integrated system plan every two years. And this, for the very first time, painted a long-term picture of where our electricity system would go. Using a number of scenarios, the most aggressive of which was the step change scenario. So that is assuming there's commitment to reduce emissions and a large amount of wind and solar to do so. Under the Finkel review, the four different scenarios showed that coal would leave our system at a fairly rapid pace. Just three years later, the integrated system plan was updated to show a much more aggressive view. And when that report is updated again next year, we'll see that coal line even steeper still. Here's a representation of the integrated system plan's step change scenario. To the left, we have the progress over the last 12 years. And to the right, we have the step change scenario. Under the step change scenario, coal comes out. That's the black line. We have hydro chugging along the blue line. Wind and solar are the champions here taking up the majority of the generation task. And then a thin line of orange being gas. So gas stays around, but playing a smaller but still significant role in balancing the grid. Now with all this wind and solar coming to the system, we still have a big role for dispatchable generation. The dotted red line is the dispatchable generation. As we go forward, we have an increase in the variable renewables above the line. But we have a constant or near constant amount of dispatchable generation helping us keep the lights on. What we're doing though is replacing this dispatchable fossil generation with dispatchable storage and clean generation. So how are we going? Where we're moving faster than Finkel ever expected. This is the chart from his report on rooftop solar. Solar on rooftops is a standout in Australia. We have the highest adoption of rooftop solar per capita or anywhere on the planet. The Australia is extremely lucky to have an amazing renewable energy source. A lot really is owed to the renewable energy target which is put in place by the Howard government in 2001. Extended by the Rudd government in 2010, I believe, which set a target 20% by 2020 renewable target. We ended up actually 27% by the end of last year. But that provided a mechanism in which the sector could finance projects and rapidly come down the cost curve. So timing was good in Australia. Some countries, Germany, Canada went harder earlier with renewables and they cost them a lot more. We benefited from them. They were the first movers. They helped bring renewables down. We grabbed those opportunities with our excellent resources. We are installing rooftop solar faster than any country in the world. It just makes economic sense in Australia. People aren't doing it because they want to save the environment. They're doing it because it just makes economic sense. So how are we doing with so much happening in our energy transition? Well, compared to other countries and other regions, not very well at all. Looking at this chart recently put together by the Australia Institute. Just looking at the energy sector, Australia has actually increased our emissions since 2005. Whereas countries like the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union have managed to sustain reduced emissions. How have we done this when our electricity emissions have fallen so sharply? It's because they're being overwhelmed by changes in other sectors. So looking at this chart here, we see that stationary energy, which is the energy we use to heat our homes and businesses and water and some processes. Those emissions have been increasing. Our transport emissions have been increasing. And a category called fugitive emissions, which are the emissions from when we extract gas and process gas. And when we extract coal, the methane and carbon emissions that are released from our fossil fuel extraction. So it's not just electricity where we need to reduce emissions. It's across the whole economy. So electricity is the largest of our sectors, about 33% of emissions in Australia come from that sector. And it is falling. But now we have to look at the other sectors, the direct combustion or stationary energy. Transport and the fugitives are the largest sectors that need most of our focus right now. We do have solutions in agriculture and waste. But the technologies we have most at hand are in those sectors that I've marked here in red. It's a simple plan, really, from here. Electrify everything and move to 100% renewables. Well, electricity emissions have been falling and impressively so. They've been completely wiped out by increases in other sectors. Transport and fugitive emissions are the standouts. Our vehicle emission standards are well behind every G20 country, well behind China. We have a really poor track record on emissions controls in vehicles. And as the general population in Australia has grown and people have moved to larger cars and cars with the world's weakest emission standards. We've seen our transport emissions on the rise. Now there's a quote from Bill McKibben who says that there are no silver bullets with addressing climate change or emissions reductions. There's only silver buckshot. We really have to work across all the sectors of the economy and all the activities within those sectors. There are many such plans to do so. One of which, which I'm going to highlight today, is climate works decarbonisation futures plan, which builds on some 2015 work updated in 2020. They've built plans for the transport industry, buildings, electricity and agricultural sector. Here's a summary of all those sectors put together and three different scenarios. And they call two degrees deploys, two degrees innovate and 1.5 degree all in. These have a significantly reduced emissions in 2030, much reduced in 2050, not zero, relying on carbon forestry, so re-vegetating significant parts of the country in order to give us zero or in this case negative emissions. A key development in order to reduce our emissions will be what is known as sector coupling. So integrating our energy system, that framework of electrify everything, integrating our system so that as we are generating large amounts of renewable energy, some of it's feeding into the grid and directly feeding processes, some of it's feeding into hydrogen electrolyzers and feeding hydrogen grid, which may go into other industries or transport or even in the export field. My own group at Melbourne University, the Climate Energy College, has been a lead player in the Energy Transition Hub, an Australian German program. One of the reports that we're most proud of, this work that found with a 400% renewable grid in Australia, that means powering ourselves and three times as much energy being exported overseas. We find, as you can see on this chart, that as we move from 100% renewables to 400, the system costs of integrating that much renewables and storage fall, such that our energy cost in the country will be lower. So as Australia becomes a clean energy superpower, the cost of energy in Australia falls. So we are making great progress in one sector, the electricity sector. But it is being overwhelmed by our lack of progress, in fact, our backsliding in other sectors. Australia is currently failing on emissions reductions. We are not on a trajectory to meet our Paris commitments in 2030, and even then those commitments were very weak. We have to get moving in other sectors, in transportation, in stationary energy, and that's going to take coordination between the states and the federal government. And we need to find a way to get the federal government to take these matters seriously and start us on this journey. We know how to do it. We've got drawers and shelves full of plans. We just need to have the political will to get on to do it. And that probably means changing the composition who sits in our parliament.