to zerohedge.com for lease the commercial real estate apocalypse and photos See day we're gonna get into some graphics here at early 2017 We first reported a bearish trade emerged Which quickly gained popularity in the investment community and was dubbed the next big short at the time only a few bearish funds We're positioned for a retail apocalypse that could spur a wave of defaults fast forward to today Coronavirus outbreak and the ensuing lockdown is essentially Frozen the commercial real estate market buildings that were once used for restaurants offices hotels Spaws and or anything else this classified non-essential F-seem Soaring vacancies And just as an aside with the story we brought you yesterday quick reminder New York City is going to be especially hurt from this Economically and they are going to be eating a lot of crow when the numbers come out in the next few months and the perspective makes it Obviously the shutdown was unnecessary the cure was worse than the disease New York City man had in the most expensive retail and commercial space in the world is going to just be Is seen such a evil this is single Handily andedly sending the commercial property market into chaos as vacancy sort Tremendous downward pressure is being put on almost every asset class tied to commercial real estate the latest TREP remittance data compiled by Morgan Stanley showed a quarter of all commercial mortgage-backed securities CNBS could be on the verge of default CNBS delinquency surge To a new high in April as lockdowns continued so Have you a pull of that first graphic there CJ exhibit three delinquent loans versus historic Delinquent rate delinquent seat rates the number of those loans As seen a huge spike here and This is just you know something that has been trending since if you look the bottom left of this chart is October 2012 going up to Where we are today In 2020 so going now to the next graphic This is by the way this this one we this is now commercial capitulation Need some explanation right and I love they they have on the right side of this graphic CJ He can just zoom in a little bit there Rona Rona look at that drop off here So for more color on the collapse mcm-ct.com create a sub-thread showing the economic devastation down here in the lighthouse point to Delray Beach area on a main Commercial slash travel route. It appears MCM recently drove up and down a stretch of highway in South Florida In area of great well then said three months ago one could count for lease signs on this whole route on a few hands Which now appears to have significantly multiplied during lockdown. So here's that graphic you if you scroll up again Or scroll down a little more than to that CJ We can just go over that so here they're going down here pictures of many probably most of the four lease signs as of yesterday Remember there used to be very few just months ago each one of these comes with tragedy before it in my opinion Needs a very credit worthy new tenant willing to make a big slash long-term commitment So that just wow look at this is boom boom and yeah, this is just overwhelming So the tweet rebuilding credit creditworthiness from these Aborted slash terminated or in solvents here related lease and business blows will take years The only way this could have been prevented was if the government righted a national bank a national backstop directly Before these signs appeared now again to zoom out to the bigger picture here first In you know the recovery for this taking years This is very much tied to the force unemployment crisis and it's gonna make it a lot worse as libertarians a lot of us are tempted to Excuse me, you know sneer at the economically illiterate, which is you know all of us before we educated ourselves Because they don't teach economics and government schools obviously not in middle school high school In the curricula there or in any way that will allow you to engage and understand what's happening here No civics classes anymore and there are a lot of people who are in the category of the economically ignorant who see this and go oh yeah eat the rich through the employers and it's like Those are the people that that was how you got jobs and what this Economic manipulation represents is a concentration of economic and political power This is a ripoff. This is how these economic manipulations these planned crashes have always been throughout the history of the occurrences When the markets have been subject to this kind of massive manipulation think about it for just a second If everybody is made desperate for just a short period of time all of these buildings go up for lease eventually They get default on the loans people sell their properties people right now selling land selling assets Even in the vehicle market use vehicles you can see people just desperate if you're out of work You have spare vehicle. Well guess what now you're selling that vehicle guess what so is everybody else Who's buying Who's buying? The people who are profiting off this crisis You've heard the quote from Thomas Jefferson I am afraid that if we allow our money to be controlled by a Central bank where they are able to manipulate inflation in deflation We will find ourselves in a generation or two waking up homeless on the continent our forefathers conquered Now yes, I'm butchering the quote and yes There are plenty of Eurocentric biases within that statement, but the main point remains clear We are about to wake up homeless This is the crisis that Jefferson predicted would come with any central bank. That is their mechanism of Passing out money right now. What do they give us money for $1200? They look good for us. We got another $1200 check on the ways that can be enough to buy These properties This real estate all those cars on the market even just like I I can talk in the at the bigger abstract level and talk about commercial Real estate and talk about the properties that we are going to see bought up the Companies that are going to be bought up the consolidation of power and wealth that is happening and all this and it's a bit abstract but just the car example guess what you and all your bartender servers, super friends are now out of work and you're all trying to sell your cars to each other Your $1200 checks are not going to do it Prices are going to plummet for everything that is not Truly essential immediately survival simple food water building energy things like that right cell phone bills Castling Outer repairs Everything outside of that prices are plummeting right now and What this story reveals is so important in the real estate market is that in commercial real estate You might again if you resent the rich you might be tempted to see the entrepreneurs In so many of these businesses suffering saying ah yes, screw the boss man Right, this is the adverse of the man down with the man no What this represents is a consolidation of power where your employers are losing out bankers and major corporations are winning and we are all getting screwed over