Does the conflict between Israel and Iran hold the potential to reshape the global political and economic landscape? This is not a question to be taken lightly. The escalating tension between these two nations has far reaching implications with the potential to send shockwaves through the global political and economic arenas. We're not just talking about localized skirmishes. These are events that could fuel soaring oil prices, trigger market volatility, and even risk a global recession. The situation is akin to a high stakes game of chess, with each move being watched and analysed by players around the world. The stakes are high, and the world watches with baited breath. The roots of this conflict run deep, with key events marking its progression. We journey back to the summer of 2022, when the simmering tensions between the United States and Iran began to bubble over. Indirect talks aimed at restoring the 2015 nuclear deal came to a halt in Doha Qatar, with no significant progress made. Iran was inching closer to the amount of enriched uranium required for a nuclear bomb, which strained their cooperation with the United Nations nuclear watchdog. This lack of progress hinted at a prolonged diplomatic stalemate, threatening regional stability. The year 2023 brought with it an uncontained war between Israel and Hamas. This conflict had severe implications, not just on a political level but economically as well. Analysts warned of soaring oil prices, with the potential to reach a staggering $150 a barrel. Market volatility was predicted to skyrocket, potentially leading to a mild global recession. This war resulted in over 4,100 deaths, and had the potential to escalate into a larger conflict, impacting the global economy and further straining relations with Iran. As the conflict wore on, the potential for the United States and Iran to become more directly involved, became a grim possibility. Predictions of a 70% increase in oil prices circulated, threatening a significant drop in global GDP growth, inflation spikes, and disruptions to supply chains. It was a tense time with the world on the edge of its seat, watching the events unfold. As we journey through this timeline, we see a series of key events, each escalating the tension between Israel and Iran. Each event, from failed diplomatic talks to an uncontained war, has added fuel to an already raging fire. As we've seen, the situation has been escalating, with each event adding fuel to the already raging fire. The potential repercussions of this conflict are far reaching and significant. Let's delve deeper. Imagine a world where the bubbling tension escalates, leading to soaring oil prices. This isn't a dystopian fiction but a potential reality. Greg Daco, the chief economist at EY, warns of a severe scenario where oil prices could reach a staggering $150 a barrel. But the effects wouldn't stop there. This surge in oil prices could trigger a domino effect, causing market volatility to skyrocket. The world could be thrust into a mild global recession, a concept that might seem abstract until we break it down. We're talking about a 1.4% drop in global real GDP growth and a $2 trillion loss in the world economy. And what about the everyday person? Well, financial conditions could tighten, with stocks potentially falling by 20%. The dollar in your pocket could strengthen by 10%, affecting purchasing power. Central banks may need to respond to this inflationary shock by easing policy faster but not necessarily cutting rates to zero. Former US Treasury Secretary Stephen Manushin also weighs in, emphasizing the need for the US to increase domestic oil production to mitigate these potential economic impacts. Challenges exist, however, including low reserves and conflicting priorities with the push for green energy. The potential fallout of this conflict could be felt worldwide, affecting economies and people far beyond the borders of Israel and Iran. The world's response to this conflict will be crucial in determining its outcome. In the face of escalating tensions and potential for a larger scale conflict, the need for effective diplomatic efforts cannot be overstated. The European Union, for instance, has stepped up to the plate, facilitating talks between the involved parties in a bid to quell the rising storm. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the United States, too, has been deeply involved, indirectly negotiating with Iran to restore the nuclear deal. These talks, although currently without progress, are a testament to the importance of diplomatic channels in such precarious situations. Beyond these key players, other global powers are also playing their part, contributing to the collective effort to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control. The global response, as it unfolds, signifies a collective understanding that dialogue rather than conflict should shape the course of international relations. Yet this does not negate the challenges that lie ahead. The lack of progress in talks, changing regional dynamics, and ongoing geopolitical factors continue to complicate the situation. As the world grapples with this volatile situation, the question remains, can diplomacy prevail over conflict?