In the past I've made two videos about the growth of Turkish influence in the Middle Eastern spear, and my predictions on which countries will fall into their fold. I also made a video about the growing geopolitical standoff between Russia and China, with Central Asia being a major point of contention. Now it is time to combine these two concepts and look into how Turkey is trying to expand its influence into Central Asia, and whether their attempts are feasible or not. First let's have a bit of context. The five modern-day countries of Central Asia are Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Though mostly being ruled by local dynasties previously, the Russian Empire expanded its territory into Central Asia in the 1800s, having direct rule over the region until 1991. Despite not directly controlling the five countries in the present day, Russia still has a considerable amount of influence there, especially in handling the affairs that concern the geographically unstable borders around the Fragana Valley, something Russia itself orchestrated. Russia also leads the collective security treaty organization, which includes many Central Asian countries. Aside from Russia, China is also gaining a lot of influence in Central Asia, especially in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. These economies are very small and weak, leading them to be easy victims into China's debt trap foreign policy strategy, which calls for it to fund projects in foreign countries in the hopes that those countries will pay them back eventually for their assistance, except that China knows it's not getting the money back. These countries' economies are so small that it's not a great loss for China to pay for these things, but at the same time these countries are so economically trapped in their debt to China that they fall deep into the sphere of their influence. This process is already being facilitated to a degree in Uzbekistan as well, than not to the extent of the other two Central Asian states. There is a third player trying to gain influence into Central Asia too. Turkey makes itself a viable partner to many of the Central Asian states due to a shared Turkic heritage. There is already a council that reflects this wish to unite the Turkic people, the Turkic council. Starting in 2009, the idea was that of Kazakhstan President Norsultan Nasrbaev, who sought to increase cooperation between Turkic states. Today, there are five members, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Turk Ministan is not part of this alliance due to its neutral stance in global politics, and Tajikistan is not a Turkic country, nor does it have good relations with its Turkic neighbors. However, the level of cooperation between two Turkic countries in particular is questionable, namely the relations between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. This is something I will get into later. If Turkey is to establish its presence in Central Asia, it must start with countries that are closer to it. When you are in a country where 1% of the population is very rich off of your country's gas reserves, while you and the other 99% live in pre-industrial conditions. And there is a country with a very similar language and customs where citizens are much freer and much more prosperous, that also happens to be growing in influence, joining that country's power train seems pretty legit. This is the current relationship between Turkmenistan and Turkey. However, a regime change would need to be facilitated before Turkey could really pull the country completely into its orbit. Turkey has a great economic partnership with Turkmenistan already, the country is still very closed off to the rest of the world. If Turkey had the opportunity to use its influence to instill some sort of regime change, or aid some revolution in the country should have happened, I see no reason why they wouldn't take advantage of this. Turkmenistan has a mere 6 million people on a land that contains an estimated 10% of the world's natural gas reserves, and also serves as a gateway for Turkey to expand its influence elsewhere in Central Asia. Turkey should try to focus on watching for a crack in the door into Turkmenistan, and once it occurs, slide right in and pull the country into its orbit. If you watch my video on Turkmenistan, you will see how the country is important to global politics, and why having it on Turkey's side will be very beneficial for them. Whose beckistan would be another country that Turkey can easily facilitate a good relationship with, and establish its influence there. Why? Don't they have a good partnership with Russia and China? Well, it's more because of their other neighbors that I predict whose beckistan would ideally choose to ally with Turkey. Kurdistan and Tajikistan, countries which have been deeply integrated into the Chinese fold, pose a greater threat to his beckistan than one would think. As I said earlier, both countries are rather poor and rely on natural energy sources to keep their power running. Thing is, these countries don't have the gas resources of the lowland nations. However, they do have rivers that originate in their borders, which they can use to maximize hydro power if they were to build hydroelectric dams to do so. They have proposed these projects, and this poses a huge problem for Uzbekistan, a country that relies on these rivers for its cotton agriculture, one of its largest exports. In a region of the world that is already getting drier, a reduction in water supply from these rivers would be very damaging to the Uzbek economy. Uzbekistan is already in a huge geographic predicament anyway. As the Fragana Valley, its most fertile and populous area, is greatly separated from the rest of the country by mountains, and the flatlands that would otherwise connect you to the rest of the country are actually into Tajikistan. With all these geographic issues, and with China aiding both of Uzbekistan's enemies, this is the perfect opportunity for Turkey to step in, to aid its fellow Turkic brother nation. Though Kyrgyzstan is technically a Turkic country, and part of the Turkic council, it is politically distant to Turkey, and has allied itself with Russia, a great rival to the country. So seeking influence in Uzbekistan that the expensive Kyrgyzstan and the grand scheme of things is not an extreme geopolitical move, but actually one very beneficial for both countries. Uzbekistan has already threatened military action against the two mountainous countries if they are going through with their dams, and having Turkey as a backup would not only be great for Uzbekistan, but also for Turkey's global security interests. This too would give Turkey a window into the Chinese political sphere, and stunt their expansion should Turkey be successful in getting Uzbekistan to its side. I have touched on Turkey's other main rival in the region, Russia. With Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan essentially part of the Chinese fold, and Uzbekistan becoming more distant from Russia, their last real line of defense in Central Asia is Kazakhstan, the country that is also trying to become more distant from Russian influence. The longtime president of Kazakhstan, Nazarbayev, sought to extend ties to other Turkic countries, including Turkey, with whom they have created a strong economic and political partnership. Unlike the other two countries I have mentioned, however, I don't see any major destabilizing event being very possible in the near future where Kazakhstan, so Turkey cannot take advantage of the country militarily. Despite this, Turkey can continue its investments in Kazakhstan's industry and increase energy cooperation while proving itself to be a better partner to Kazakhstan than Russia or China are. Kazakhstan really could just end up being like Thailand or Singapore, though, by playing the major regional powers off of each other while maintaining sovereignty. This is the country that I'm least sure of Turkey expanding its influence into, though I do believe the countries will continue their friendly relations. However, I do see Kazakhstan as one way or another being both part of the Russo-Turkish geopolitical standoff, as well as the Sino-Turkish standoff. Central Asia is another region that the world, and especially Turkey, should be paying close attention to. The effects of the regional geographic climate, as well as the competition for resources, will be very important for Turkey to analyze and act accordingly if it wants to secure itself as a global power. Thank you all for watching, be sure to like, subscribe and share this video with all of your friends. Let's get to 5,000 subscribers by September, so please share my content with everyone you know. If this can be achieved, expect even better content from this channel. Come take a look at my new Patreon and Discord server and I'll see you guys next time.