Due to climatic change, the number of high impact weather events is globally increasing. The European Commission aims at increasing the preparedness and protection of both citizens and enterprises to such events. The market potential of such services in public administrations is limited. Extending the scope to self -preparedness and self -protection is both promising and challenging. A novel approach for innovation management and strategic planning based on scenario -technique has been developed, applied and validated within four case studies of the European H2020 project ANYWHERE. The new approach combines fundamental domain knowledge, out -of-the-box thinking and agile scenario technique. Targeting both new innovative services as well as add-ons for established service frameworks was identified as key success factor of innovation in the difficult market of self -preparedness and self -protection services for citizens and enterprises. Keywords: scenario -technique, self -protection, self -preparedness, disaster management, security market, high -impact weather events, weather forecast, impact assessment This paper was presented at The ISPIM Innovation Conference – Innovating in Times of Crisis, 7-10 June 202 0. Event Proceedings: LUT Scientific and Expertise Publications : ISBN 978-952-335-466-1 2 1 Introduction Flash floods, thunderstorms and droughts are examples of extreme weather events c aused by climatic change . Both the number as well as the impact of such events is globally increasing. The responsibility of p reparedness and protection is shared among public authorities on the one side and citizens and enterprises on the other side . Ther efore, The European Commission aims at increasing the level of preparedness through various initiatives. New innovative concepts and products usually target public protection and disaster relief organizations (PPDR). The market potential of such services in public administrations is limited. Extending the scope to self -preparedness and self -protection is both promising and challenging: The market for citizen or enterprise solutions is potentially larger, but lacks willingness to pay. Investments for risk reduction regarding personal health or business continuity are often neglected as long as risks are not ta ngible (Paton and Johnston, 2001) , and governmental organizations are seen responsible for risk mitigation regarding natural hazards. The European H2020 project team of A NYWHERE developed a platform for impact assessment and decision support based on weather nowcasting and forecasting. Marking a paradigm shift regarding situational awareness from data analysis towards impact assessment, the platform offers broad potential also for innovative services for self -preparedness and self -protection. A novel approach for innovation management and strategic planning based on scenario - technique has been developed, applied and validated within four case studies: schools, food logistic s, camp sites and electricity providers. The benefit of scenario -technique was proven in these four case studies. An additional case study with regards to generating product ideas for the automotive industries was performed with a German automotive supplie r. Result s from the project are summarized with the intention to share good practices of innovation management and strategic planning from the four case studies. On the one hand, potential dissemination of project results shall be fostered and potential in novators shall be addressed. On the other hand, a perspective on widening innovation potentials from a limited and regulated market to a broad variety of associated markets is outlined . The innovation fields of (self-)preparedness and (self -) protection in particular and of sustainable products in general are used as examples. The paper at hand is structured as follows: Chapter 2 introduces challenges with regard to the specific domain of interest. Chapter 3 provides an insight into the European funded project ANYWHERE and specific ambitions targeting self -preparedness and self - protection. Chapter 4 contributes the new approach enabled by Scenario -Techni que. Chapter 5 presents related work to prepare for conclusion s on strategic planning and innovation manag ement in chapter 6. 2 The market of services and tools for self -preparedness and self -protection The terms “self -preparedness” and “self -protection” indicate tasks and activities of indivi - duals and organisations. They are performed with the goal to protec t health (in case of individuals) and business (in case of organisations). In general, protection means to avoid any impact caused by actual hazards in a given situation. In contrast to that , preparedness means to anticipate potential hazards and to prepar e countermeasures in advance. When it comes to large -scale and/or long -lasting disasters, t he differentiation between preparedness and protection is fuzzy due to time and geographic dimensions. While for some regions protection might be necessary already, neighboured regions might still be in a state of raising preparedness levels. For instance, in case of droughts there might be regions with dry forests that have to protect themselves while others still prepare without activating protection measures yet. N onetheless, the terms are significant regarding responsibilities (Venier and Capone, 20 19): While PPDR organisations are in charge of protection, every - one needs to take actions in preparedness phase. Services an d tools to support self -preparedness and self -protection can be distinguished on a generic layer into a) those which are specifically dedicated to this domain and b) which are incorporate such functionalities into a broader field of application. The first category is clearly part of the so called “security mark et” (Gruchmann et al. , 2014) , while the second one is spread across various types of software systems. Dedicated services and tools for self-preparedness and self-protection can be sub -categorized into those provided or sponsored by public institutions, those that are driven by formal obligations and those that are driven by economic interests. For instance, the German Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaste r Assistance (BBK) offers a warning app called NINA to inform everyone about risks of natural hazards1. The app informs about official warnings as well as support regarding measures to self -prepare and self -protect. It is part of the services of BBK provid ed directly to citizens and enterprises. As an example for the second sub - category, critical infrastructures have to operate surveillance resp. monitoring systems to ensure immediate recognition of abnormal events. This obligation implies the generation of a specific market for software providers in the field of crisis management. The third sub - category results from economic considerations recognising safety as an economic value. Nonetheless, in these cases safety competes with various other values like com fort an ease - of-use. Therefore, in these cases there is a tendency to integrate and offer functionality within broader platforms and services . Thus, markets of enterprise and private applications have to be distinguished. For enterprises, applications supp ort business continuity and management of corresponding plans. This covers both compliance with obligations and reduction of economic loss. For instance, fleet management of trucks depends on accurate scheduling of travel durations. Thus, reducing the impa ct of extreme weather events helps to keep contracts and to satisfy customer demands. For citizens, applications support well - being and health. Examples spread from simple apps presenting travel advice including weather information to private cars that inc orporate safety functions. 3 Th e ANYWHERE p roject The ANYWHERE project was funded by the European Commission as an Innovation Action from 2016 until 2019. The goal was to design a platform that targets all aforementioned stakeholders: Within its main focus , the project created a platform to support decisions of PPDR organisations anticipating the impact of extreme weather events and coordinating countermeasures. At the same time, the project was driven by the intention to combine increased safety with the c reation of market opportunities in the field of self -preparedness and self -protection. 1 URL https://www.bbk.bund.de/DE/NINA/Warn -App_NINA_node.html (web page only available in German) This paper was presented at The ISPIM Innovation Conference – Innovating in Times of Crisis, 7-10 June 202 0. Event Proceedings: LUT Scientific and Expertise Publications : ISBN 978-952-335-466-1 4 The backbone of the ANYWHERE platform is built by weather models and according services. Input from hundreds of data providers as well as nowcasting and forecasting providers are integrated by the so called Multi -Hazard Early Warning System (MH -EWS) (van Lanen et al. , 2019) . Figure 1 presents MH -EWS as the “mainframe” of the entire platform. It provides various types of services to PPDR applications (called A4EU) as well as third party integrations for different domains. Eight pilot installations of A4EU were realised within the project, for instance, in Catalunya, Liguria and Corsica. The adaptation to local need and the integration of local data sources are key elements of ANYWHERE services within the ANYWHERE eco -system. PPDR applications already include functionality to p repare and send warnings to the public through legacy systems. In addition, MH -EWS services are applicable for self -preparedness applications. Citizens or enterprises can use impact assessments directly without waiting for public warnings. The interrelatio ns were tested by role -playing games (Terti et al. , 2019) . Figure 1 Overview of the ANYWHERE platform (Source: ANYWHERE consortium) . The paper at hand focuses on innovation in self -preparedness and self-protection: How to overcome the hurdles of this specific market based on MH -EWS services? Figure 2 shows the ANYWHERE approach: In continuous alignment with PPDR stakeholders and procedures, literature was analysed to identify requirements and constra ints for dedicated self-preparedness tools as well as integrated functionality (cf. chapter 2). Guidelines and recommendations are used to open up a Common Information Space facilitating cooperation and alignment amongst stakeholders. Utilising this space as an information resource, creativity techniques were applied to open up a broad field of potential applications. Three are marked by red colour: for a Catalan association of campsite operators, a system was provided to operate response to the European Fl oods Directive; for a Finnish transmission grid operator, a system to schedule response capacities in case of thunderstorms was created; for Italian and Spanish flood logistics companies, fleet management was extended by an assessment of snow and flood imp acts on traffic conditions. A fourth case is presented in chapter 4 focusing on automotive industries. An engineering supplier considers the adoption of MH -EWS services into a platform for autonomous driving. Both technical and market potentials have to be investigated. Figure 2 Stakeholders and services/tools in self -preparedness and self -protection . 4 Amplified i nnovation by agile Scenario -Technique Within the ANYWHERE project, a novel approach for innovation management and strategic planning was developed. The approach is a consistency -based approach towards scenario -technique based on the procedural model for agile scenario -technique by Graessler and Scholle (Graessler et al. , 2019; Gräßler et al. , 2017) . The foundations werederived from the procedural mod el of Reibnitz (Reibnitz, 1992) . The Procedural Model for agile Strateg ic Planning is shown in figure 3 . Figure 3 : Procedural model for agile scenario -technique (Gräßler et al. , 2017; Graessler et al. , 2019) Task AnalysisInfluence AnalysisDerivation of Projections 12 3 Consistency Assessment4 Scenario Development5 Derivation of Consequences6 Transfer of Implications7ISDMMandatory Transitions Optional Transitions This paper was presented at The ISPIM Innovation Conference – Innovating in Times of Crisis, 7-10 June 202 0. Event Proceedings: LUT Scientific and Expertise Publications : ISBN 978-952-335-466-1 6 By applying the seven process steps, users are enabled to efficiently generate market scenario for various applications. As a method of foresight, the scenarios are the most consistent future rather than the most probable as in methods of forecast (Fink et al. , 2000) . The procedural model f or agile scenario -technique is combined with the Integra ted Scenario Data Model (ISDM) proposed by Graessler and Pottebaum (Pottebaum and Gräßler, 2016) . Within the ISDM, all relevant data such as influence factors, their projections and underlying statistics as well as generic tasks and selection rules for certain process steps within the procedural model are stored. By combining both, the procedural and the data model, the agility of the scenario process can be enhanced, the communicative function of scenarios can be increased and the required effort for scenario generation can be reduced significantly (Graessler et al. , 2020) . The input is particularly generated by