Ubhubhane

Ubhubhane igama lesizulu elisho into ebubhisayo, umashayabhuqe wesifo, lichaza ukuqubuka kwesifo esithelelanayo esesihambe amazwe ahlukene nezindawo ezahlukene. Ukubhebhetheka ngokushesha kwesifo ebantwini abaningi abasendaweni eyodwa esikhathini esifishane kubizwa ngobhubhane lwendawana.Principles of Epidemiology, Third Edition (PDF). Atlanta, Georgia: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2012. Bese kuba khona isifo esithelele abantu abayisibalo esaziwayo, lolu akulona ubhubhane. Isifo esithelelanayo esinesibalo abathelelekile abaziwayo esifana nomkhuhlane wokushintsha kwezikhathi zonyaka azibalwa kubhubhane ngoba zivela ngesikhathi esisodwa ezindaweni ezahlukene emhlabeni kunokuthi zibhebhetheke emhlabeni wonke.

 Incazelo nezigaba 
Ubhubhane isifo esithelelanayo esiqala ezweni elilodwa sibhebhetheke kwamanye amazwe.Porta, Miquel, ed. (2008). Dictionary of Epidemiology. Oxford University Press. p. 179. ISBN 978-0-19-531449-6. Retrieved 14 September 2012. Ukuze isifo kuzothiwa siwubhubhane, kufanele kube isifo esibhebhetheke emazweni amaningi futhi kube isifo esithelelanayo/ Umzekelo; isifo somdlavuza sibulala abantu abaningi emhlabeni kodwa akuthiwa ubhubhane ngoba asithelelani.A. M., Dumar (2009). Swine Flu: What You Need to Know. Wildside Press LLC. p. 7. ISBN 978-1434458322.

Isigaba sokuqala senzeka lapho okuqala khona ukutholakala kwabantu abanesifo. Uma kungenziwa isibonelo nge-COVID-19, kungashiwo isikhathi la okwakusagula khona abantu abayidlanzana.

Isigaba sesibili ilapho okubonakala khona isifo emphakathini.Wiles S. The three phases of Covid-19 and how we can make it manageable. TheSpinoff. Available at: https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/09-03-2020/the-three-phases-of-covid-19-and-how-we-can-make-it-manageable. Accessed on 10 April 2020 Ilapho okubonakala khona ukuthelelana kwabantu kuphinde kulokhu kutheleleka abasha.

Isigaba sesithathu ilapho ukubhebhetheka kwesifo sekuthotshisiwe noma kungasekho muntu othelelekayo.

 Ukuphatheka 
Ziningi izinto amazwe angazenza uma kuqubuka ubhubhane. Ngo 2005 isigungu sezempilo umhlaba wonke i-World Health Organisation(WHO) yasungula indlela yokumelana nezifo emazweni onke i-International Health Regulations(IHR), lokhu kwakwenzelwa ukuvikela, nokuphathwa kwezifo ezingahle zithutheleke kwamanye amazwe.See: https://www.who.int/ihr/publications/9789241580496/en ngaphezu kwalokho i-WHO yenze uhlelo lwecebo lokumelana nobhubhane oluyimikhuhlane. Lolu hlelo lwashicilelwa ngo-1999 okokuqala lase luphinda lubhekwa futhi ngo-2005 nango-2009.ibid Izinhlelo eziningi ezazibekelwe ukubhekana ne-COVID-19 zadalula kwi-IHR yango-2005 nasekuzilungiseleleni kwe-WHO.

Sekube nezinkulumo ngezindlela okumele zisetshenziwe ezizosiza amazwe akwazi ukuthola iziguli eziningi zisuka nje ngaphambi kokuzibeka zodwa bese ziyalashwa, lezo zindlela (ukuhlola, ukwelapha, ukulandelela)The 3 T’s model: Hitting the nail on the head, The Jordan times, April 2020 http://www.jordantimes.com/opinion/mohammad-majed-abufaraj/3-ts-model-hitting-nail-head.. Emveni kwalokho kube sekulandelelwa bonke abantu abake bahlangana nalo ogulayo, bese nabo bebekwa bodwa. Lendlela yokwenza idunyiswe indlela ebasebenzele ngayo emazweni okubalwa kuwo i-South Korea neSingapore, yizo lezi zizwe zaqala ukulungiselela into efana nalena emfeni kobhubhane lwe-SARS.World Health Organisation March press briefing on Coronavirus , Reuters, 2020https://www.pscp.tv/w/1OdJrqYMXMXGX?t=49m58s

Ukuqhelelana nomphakathi enye yezindlela okuhloswe ukwehliswa ukuthelelana ngokuvimba ukuthi abantu bengasondelani ukuze kwehliswe amathuba okuthelelana ngezifo ezithelelanayo. Umphathi we-WHO uDkt Michael J Ryan, ekhuluma nabezindaba kuNdasa(Mashi) ka-2019, uthe ukuziqhelelanisa nomphakathi indlela yesikhashana okungehliswa ukubhebhetheka kwaleli gciwane iphinde isuse umthwalo kwabezempilo, kodwa ngeke iliqede leli gciwane. Kubiza imali eningi ukwenza lokhu futhi kumele kwenziwe kanye neminye imizamo."WHO HIV/AIDS Data and Statistics". Retrieved 12 April 2020

 Ubhubhane lwamanje 

 Isandulela ngculazi nengculazi 

 Indaba ephelele: Epidemiology of HIV/AIDS 
Yize i-WHO isebenzisa igama elichaza ubhubhane lwendawo uma ichaza isandulela ngculazi. Kusukela ngo-2018, balinganiiselwa kumamiliyoni angu-37.9 abantu abanesandulela ngculazi emhlabeni.Fact Sheet" (PDF). UNAIDS.org. 2018. Retrieved 12 December 2019. kufe abantu abalinganiselwa ku-770 000, bebulawa ingculazi ngo-2018."UN AIDS DATA2019". UNAIDS.org. 2019. Retrieved 5 December 2019. Okwamanje i- Sub-Saharan Africa iyona ndawo enabantu abaningi abathelelekayo. Ngo-2018 bebelinganiselwa emaphesentini angu-61 abathelelekile kulendawo. 

 Amagciwane ohlobo lwekhorona 
Amagciwane ohlobo lwekhorona angamagcciwane awumndeni omkhulu wamagciwane abanga ukugula okusuka emkhuhlaneni omncane kuya ezifeni ezinamandla ezifana ne-Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) ne-Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). Uhlobo olusha lwalamagciwane i-(SARS-COV-2) idala i-COVID-19.McArdleColumnistBioBioFollowFollowColumnist, Megan McArdle closeMegan. "Opinion | When a danger is growing exponentially, everything looks fine until it doesn't". Washington Post. Retrieved 15 March 2020.  Ezinye izinhlobo zalamagciwane zisusuka ezilwaneni zingene ebantwini. Uphenyo olujulile luthole ukuthi i-SARS-COV yangena ebantwini ngamakati, bese kuthi i-MERS-CoV yangena ebantwini ngamakameli. Khukhona ezinye izinhlobo zalamagciwane ezingakangeni ebantwini ezisabhebhetheka ezilwaneni kuphela."WHO Statement Regarding Cluster of Pneumonia Cases in Wuhan, China". WHO. 31 December 2019. Retrieved 12 March 2020.COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU), accessed April 23rd 2020: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6   

Uhlobo olusha lwegciwane lwekhorona oluquuke e- Wuhan, esifundazweni sase-Hubei, eShayina ngoZibandlela (Disemba) ka-2019 seludale uhlobo olusha lwesifo esidala kube nzima ukuphefumula lesi sifo i-COVID-19. Isigugu sesikhungo semfundo ephakeme i-Johns Hopkins, sithe i-COVID-19 ihlasele amazwe angu-200, amazwe ahlaselekee kakhulu kubalwa kuwo i- United States, i-central China, i-western Europe ne Iran"Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (Live statistics)". Worldometer. 2020. Retrieved 3 April 2020.. Mhla zingu-11 KuNdasa(Mashi) 2020, isigungu sezempilo umhlaba wonke i-WHO ibike ukuthi i-COVID-19 ubhubhane"WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19—11 March 2020". WHO. 11 March 2020. Retrieved 12 March 2020."Coronavirus confirmed as pandemic". BBC News. 11 March 2020. Retrieved 11 March 2020.. Kusukela mhla zingu-23 kuMbasa(Ephreli) 2020, isibala sabantu abathelelwe i-COVID-19 besifika kumamiliyoni angu-2.63 emhlabeni wonke, esabashonile besingu-184,249 bese isibalo sabantu abasindile besimi ku-722,055."Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic". Worldometer.

 Uqubuko olubonakalayo 

 Umalaleveva 
Umalaleveva usabalele ezindaweni ezinesifuthefuthe noma ezishisayo, kubalwa kuzo ingxeye yamazwe aseMelika, i-Asia ne-Afrika. Unyaka nonyaka kunabantu abalinganiselwa ku-350 kuya ku 500 wamamiliyoni abathola umalaleveva."Malaria Facts". Archived from the original on 29 December 2012. Retrieved 7 September 2017. Ukungazweli imishayanguzo sekuthanda ukuba inkinga ekwelapheni umalaleveva esikhathini samanje ngoba lesi sehlo sesithanda ukuba yinto ejwayelekile, ngaphandle kwe-artemisinins White, NJ (April 2004). "Antimalarial drug resistance". J. Clin. Invest. 113 (8): 1084–1092. doi:10.1172/JCI21682. PMC 385418. PMID 15085184. Umalaleveva wake wayisifo esivamile e-Yurophu naseNyakatho neMelika, lapho ongasabonwa khona.[xxiii] Umalaleveva kungenzeka ukuthi waba nomthelela ekuwiseni umbuso wamaRoma.Vector- and Rodent-Borne Diseases in Europe and North America. Norman G. Gratz. World Health Organization, Geneva.DNA clues to malaria in ancient Rome. BBC News. 20 February 2001. Lesi sifo saduma ngokuba “imfiva yaseRoma”"Malaria and Rome" Archived 11 May 2011 at the Wayback Machine. Robert Sallares. ABC.net.au. 29 January 2003. isifo segazi i-Plasmodium falciparum saba inkinga enkulu kwababethumba amazwe nakubantu bendawo ngesikhathi ifika eMelika kanye nokudayiswa kwezigqila."The Changing World of Pacific Northwest Indians". Center for the Study of the Pacific Northwest, University of Washington.

 Umkhuhlane wase-Spain 
Umkhuhlane wase-Spain (1918 kuya ku 1920) wathelela abantu abangama miliyoni angu-500 emhlabeni wonke jikelele,[xxvii] lapho kubalwa nabantu baseziqhingini zase-Pacific nasezwenikazi leqhwa i-Arctic, wabulala abantu abalinganiselwa kuma miliyoni angu-20 kuya kwangu-100.Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (January 2006). "1918 Influenza: the mother of all pandemics". Emerging Infectious Diseases. 12 (1): 15–22. doi:10.3201/eid1201.050979. PMC 3291398. PMID 16494711. Archived from the original on 1 October 2009. Retrieved 7 September 2017.Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (January 2006). "1918 Influenza: the mother of all pandemics". Emerging Infectious Diseases. 12 (1): 15–22. doi:10.3201/eid1201.050979. PMC 3291398. PMID 16494711. Archived from the original on 1 October 2009. Retrieved 7 September 2017."Historical Estimates of World Population". Archived from the original on 9 July 2012. Retrieved 29 March 2013. Esikhathinii esiningi uma kuqubuka imikhukhlane ivamise ukubulala abantwana nazaguga, bese kuthi laba abaphakathi nendawo basinde. Kodwa umkhuhlane wase-Spainn waubulala kakhulu abantu abasha.Gagnon A, Miller MS, Hallman SA, Bourbeau R, Herring DA, Earn DJ, Madrenas J (2013). "Age-Specific Mortality During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Unravelling the Mystery of High Young Adult Mortality". PLOS One. 8 (8): e69586. Bibcode:2013PLoSO...869586G. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0069586. PMC 3734171. PMID 23940526. Umkhuhlane wase-Spain wabulala abantu abaningi ukudlula impi yomhlaba yokuqala i-World War I yona eyathu ngamaviki angu-25 yabulala abantu abadlula abantu abalulawa ingculazi eminyakeni engu-25."The 1918 Influenza Pandemic". virus.stanford.edu.Spanish flu facts by Channel 4 News Ukuhamba ngamaqembu amakhulu kwamasosha kwadala kulempi kwadala ukuthi ukutheleleka kubhebheheke ngokushesha, ukutheleleka kalula kwamasosha kwadalwa ingcindezi yomqondo, ukungadli kahle nokudutshulwa ngamabhomu.Qureshi, Adnan I. (2016). Ebola Virus Disease: From Origin to Outbreak. Academic Press. p. 42. ISBN 978-0128042427. Ukuthuthukiswa kwezokuthutha kwadala ukuthi kube lula ukuthi amasosha nabanye bebhebhethekise lesi sifo.Spanish flu strikes during World War I, 14 January 2010

 Izinkathazo ngamagciwane azayo 

 Amagciwane angabulaleki 
Indaba egcwele: Antibiotic resistance

Amagciwane angabulaleki uma ehlaselwa ngesibulala magciwane abizwa ngokuthi “amagciwane anamandlakakhulu”. Lawa magciwane angadala ukuthi kulookhu kubuya izifo esezithotshisiwe.Researchers sound the alarm: the multidrug resistance of the plague bacillus could spread Archived 14 October 2007 at the Wayback Machine. Pasteur.fr Isibonelo, lapho khona isifo sofuba singayizweli imishayanguzo ejwayele ukusetshenziswa kudala inkinga enkulu kubalaphi. Isibalo sabantu abathola lesi sifo sofuba esibizwa nge- multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) sibalwa kuhhafu wemiliyoni emhlabeni wonke unyaka nonyaka.Health ministers to accelerate efforts against drug-resistant TB. World Health Organization. Amazwe anezibalo eziphezulu zaloluhlobo lofuba iShayina neNdiya.Bill Gates joins Chinese government in tackling TB 'timebomb'. Guardian.co.uk. 1 April 2009 Isigungu sezempilo umhlaba wonke i-WHO ibika ukuthi abantu abatheleleka ngalesi sifo emahlabeni wonke balinganiselwa kumamiliyoni angu-50, amaphesentu angu-79 kulabo bantu anamagciwane ahlula izibulala magciwane ezimbili noma ezintathu kuyaphezulu. Ngonyaka kaa-2005 kubikwe ukuthi abathola i-MDR TB babengu-124 eMelika. Isifo sofuba esingalapheki ngemishayanguzo eminingi i-XDR TB yatholakala ezwenikazi lase-Afrika ngo-2006, kwase kutholakala ukuthi isemazweni angu-49 okubalwa kuwo iMelika. i-WHO ilinganisela ukuthi abantu abatheleleka nge XDR-TB bangu-40 000 ngonyaka.Tuberculosis: A new pandemic?. CNN.com

Eminyakeni engu-20 eyedlule amagciwane ajwayelekile okubalwa kuwo i-Staphylococcus aureus, Serratia marcescens ne-Enterococcus, asenamandla ukudlula izibulala magciwane ezithize ezifana ne-vancomycin nezinye ezifana neaminoglycosides kanye ne-cephalosporins. Amagciwane angabulaleki angumthelela omkhulu wokutheleleka kwabahlengikazi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukutheleleka okudalwa i-methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) ebantwini abayimiqemane sekuvamile.

 Izimfiva ezi-hemorrhagic 
Izimfiva ezi-hemorrhagic izifo eziyingozi ezithelelanayo. Izibonelo kubalwa kuzo i-Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, Rift Valley fever, Marburg virus disease ne Bolivian hemorrhagic fever. Lezi zifo zinamathuba okuthi zingaba ubhubhane.Fears of Ebola pandemic if violent attacks continue in DR Congo". Al-Jazeera. 23 May 2019. Into eyenza ukuthi zingabhebhetheku ngokushesha ukuthi zithelelana ngokuthi ube seduze kakhulu nomuntu ezimphethe, futhi lowo muntu uhlala isikhathi esifishane bese eyashona noma agule kakhulu. Lesi sikhathi esifishane sisiza abanhlengi ukuthi basheshe bamuvalele yedwa ogulayo bese engakwazi ukuthelela abanye.

 Zika virus Igciwane iZika 
Indaba ephelele: 2015–16 Zika virus epidemic, Zika virus, and Zika fever

Ukuqubuke kwegciwane iZika kwaqala ngo-2015 laba mandla kakhulu ekuqaleni kuka-2016, lapho okwase kunesibaloo esidlulile ku-1.5 wama miliyoni amazweni adlulile kwayishumi nambili emazweeni aseMelika. Inhlangano yezempilo umhlaba wonke(WHO) yakhipha isexwayiso esithi iZika kugenzeka ibhebhetheke umhlaba wonke uma ingakhalinywa."Zika virus could become 'explosive pandemic'". bbc.co.uk. 28 January 2016.

 References