Bellwether

A bellwether is something that is an indicator of trends. The term is used in economics, law and politics.

In politics
In politics, a bellwether seat is a seat that is generally won by the party that forms government.

Australia
Australian psephologist Antony Green, who reports live election results for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), classified 11 federal seats as bellwether seats for the 2016 federal election: Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Macarthur, Page and Robertson in New South Wales; Forde, Herbert, Leichhardt and Petrie in Queensland; and Makin in South Australia.https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2016/guide/bellwethers Other seats sometimes considered bellwether seats include Corangamite in Victoria; Longman in Queensland; Hasluck in Western Australia; Hindmarsh in South Australia; Bass and Braddon in Tasmania; and Solomon in the Northern Territory. However, many of these seats would no longer be considered bellwether seats; in 2022, when the Coalition lost power to the Labor Party, the Coalition retained the seats of Bass, Braddon, Forde, Herbert, Leichhardt, Lindsay, Longman, Page and Petrie, while Labor already held the seats of Corangamite, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Hindmarsh, Macarthur, Makin and Solomon, with Labor only gaining two of the mentioned seats from the Coalition (i.e Hasluck and Robertson).

The state seats of Camden, Monaro and Penrith in New South Wales; and Bentleigh, Carrum, Frankston and Mordialloc in Victoria (often called the four "sandbelt" seats);https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/28/east-west-link-and-sand-belt-seats-the-big-battles-in-last-victorian-election-push Barron River and Mundingburra in Queensland; and Albany, Geraldton, Joondalup, Southern River and Swan Hills in Western Australia; are often considered bellwether seats.

References

Category:Politics