2021 Virginia gubernatorial election

The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election happened on November 2, 2021, to elect the next governor of Virginia. Incumbent Governor Ralph Northam is unable to run, as the Constitution of Virginia does not allow terms to be served in a row.

The Democratic Party chose previous Governor Terry McAuliffe, and the Republican Party chose Glenn Youngkin. Teacher Princess Blanding ran under the new Liberation Party.

In the general election on November 2, Republican Glenn Youngkin won the election over Democrat and former Governor Terry McAuliffe, making him the first Republican to win a statewide election in Virginia since 2009.

Democratic primary election
Candidates
Chosen
Terry McAuliffe, previous governor of Virginia (2014-2018).

Lost in primary election
Jennifer Carroll Foy, previous state delegate for the 2nd house district (2018-2020).
Lee J. Carter, state delegate for the 50th house district.
Justin Fairfax, Lieutenant governor of Virginia.
Jennifer McClellan, state senator for the 9th senate district, previous state delegate for the 71st district (2006-2017).

Withdrew
Mark Herring, attorney general of Virginia and previous state senator for the 33rd district (2006-2014).

Polling
Graph

 Source Date(s) Participants Possible %of error Jennifer LeeCarter JustinFairfax TerryMcAuliffe JenniferMcClellan Other UndecidedRoanoke CollegeMay 24 – June 1, 2021637 (LV)± 3.9%11%1%5%49%9%0%24%Christopher Newport UniversityApril 11–20, 2021806 (LV)± 3.9%5%1%8%47%6%2%31%Public Policy Polling (D)April 12–13, 2021526 (LV)± 4.3%8%4%7%42%8%–29%Christopher Newport UniversityJanuary 31 – February 14, 2021488 (RV)± 4.9%4%1%12%26%4%0%54%YouGov Blue (D)February 6–11, 2021235 (RV)± 7.4%7%6%6%43%8%0%30%Global Strategy Group (D)January 12–20, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%7%–14%42%6%–30%Expedition Strategies (D)December 2020– (LV)–5%–16%32%8%–38%

Results

Republican convention election
A convention is a different way to choose a person for an election. This Republican convention used a method of voting called instant-runoff voting to choose a person for the general election.

The Republican Party of Virginia chose a convention on December 5, 2020 with a vote. The vote was 41 to 28. This decision started debates internally. At first, state senator Amanda Chase was going to run as an independent, but decided to run in the convention.

Candidates
Chosen at convention
Glenn Youngkin, former co-CEO of The Carlyle Group.

Lost at convention
Amanda Chase, state senator for the 11th senate district.
Kirk Cox, state delegate for the 66th house district, and previous Speaker of Virginia House of Delegates (2018-2020).
Sergio de la Peña, previous U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Western Hemisphere Affairs.
Peter Doran, previous CEO.
Octavia Johnson, previous sheriff of Roanoke City (2006-2013).
Pete Snyder, previous candidate for Lieutenant Governor of Virginia in 2013.

Polling
Graph

Without convention polling

Primary polling
 Source Date(s) Participants Possible %of error AmandaChase KirkCox Sergio PeterDoran OctaviaJohnson PeteSnyder GlennYoungkin Other UndecidedChange Research (D)May 5–6, 2021605 (LV)± 4.4%29%7%2%0%1%13%25%–25%Public Policy Polling (D)April 2021695 (LV)± 3.7%22%7%3%1%0%16%21%–30%Christopher Newport UniversityJanuary 31 – February 14, 2021370 (RV)± 5.6%17%10%––––3%–55%YouGov Blue (D)February 6–11, 2021170 (RV)± 8.6%24%7%1%––13%5%0%54%

Convention polling
 Source Date(s) Participants Possible %of error AmandaChase KirkCox PeteSnyder GlennYoungkin Other UndecidedThe Trafalgar Group (R)April 29 – May 3, 20213,896 (LV)± 1.6%10%10%26%38%13%3%

 Results 
                         Virginia GOP Convention, Governor Nominee                
                         Candidate
                 Round 1
                 Round 2
                 Round 3
                 Round 4
                 Round 5
                 Round 6
                             Votes
                 %
                 Votes
                 %
                 Votes
                 %
                 Votes
                 %
                 Votes
                 %
                 Votes
                 %

                          4131.80
                          32.9%
                          4140.55
                          33.0%
                          4148.91
                          33.0%
                          4331.93
                          34.5%
                          5311.43
                          42.3%
                          6869.22
                          54.7%

                          3241.61
                          25.8%
                          3243.84
                          25.8%
                          3249.71
                          25.9%
                          3502.91
                          27.9%
                          4078.25
                          32.5%
                          5684.78
                          45.3%

                          2605.89
                          20.8%
                          2611.54
                          20.8%
                          2619.83
                          20.9%
                          2859.39
                          22.8%
                          3164.32
                          25.2%
             colspan=2 style="text-align:center;" 

                          1693.58
                          13.5%
                          1698.13
                          13.5%
                          1705.90
                          13.6%
                          1859.77
                          14.8%
             colspan=4 style="text-align:center;" 

                          805.35
                          6.4%
                          812.44
                          6.5%
                          829.65
                          6.6%
             colspan=6 style="text-align:center;" 

                          42.28
                          0.3%
                          47.50
                          0.4%
             colspan=8 style="text-align:center;" 

                          33.48
                          0.3%
             colspan=10 style="text-align:center;" 


General election
Predictions
Aggregate polls
Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated TerryMcAuliffe (D) GlennYoungkin (R) Other/UndecidedMarginReal Clear PoliticsOctober 20–31, 2021November 1, 202146.8%48.5%4.8%Youngkin +1.7%FiveThirtyEight August 1 – November 1, 2021November 1, 202147.0%47.9%5.1%Youngkin +1.0%Average46.9%48.2%5.0%Youngkin +1.4%

Polling

 Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TerryMcAuliffe (D) GlennYoungkin (R) Princess Other UndecidedResearch Co.October 31 – November 1, 2021450 (LV)± 4.6%47%48%2%–3%Targoz Market ResearchOctober 26 – November 1, 2021747 (LV)± 3.6%50%47%––3%The Trafalgar Group (R)October 29–31, 20211,081 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%–2%2%InsiderAdvantage (R) October 27–30, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%45%47%2%–6%Echelon Insights October 27–29, 2021611 (LV)± 4.0%46%49%2%–4%Roanoke College October 14–28, 2021571 (LV)± 4.7%48%47%1%0%4%Fox NewsOctober 24–27, 20211,212 (RV)± 2.5%47%48%–2%3%1,015 (LV)± 3.0%45%53%–1%1%Washington Post/Schar School October 20–26, 20211,107 (RV)± 3.5%47%44%3%2%3%49%45%–3%4%918 (LV)± 4.0%49%48%1%0%2%49%48%–0%2%Christopher Newport UniversityOctober 17–25, 2021944 (LV)± 3.5%49%48%1%–1%Suffolk UniversityOctober 21–24, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%46%45%2%–7%Emerson CollegeOctober 22–23, 2021875 (LV)± 3.2%48%48%1%–3%co/efficient (R)October 20–21, 2021785 (LV)± 3.5%43%47%5%–5%Cygnal (R)October 19–21, 2021816 (LV)± 3.4%48%48%1%–3%KAConsulting LLC (R)October 18–21, 2021661 (LV)± 3.8%41%43%–1%15%Virginia Commonwealth UniversityOctober 9–21, 2021722 (LV)± 6.4%41%38%–10%11%Monmouth UniversityOctober 16–19, 20211,005 (RV)± 3.1%46%46%–2%7%1,005 (LV)45%48%–––1,005 (LV)48%45%–––Data for Progress (D)October 4–15, 20211,589 (LV)± 2.0%50%45%–2%3%The Trafalgar Group (R)October 11–13, 20211,095 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%–1%3%Fox NewsOctober 10–13, 20211,004 (RV)± 3.0%52%41%–2%5%726 (LV)± 3.5%51%46%–1%2%Schoen Cooperman Research (D)October 9–12, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%47%43%–0%10%YouGov/CBS NewsOctober 4–11, 20211,040 (LV)± 4.1%50%47%–2%0%Christopher Newport UniversitySeptember 27 – October 6, 2021802 (LV)± 4.2%49%45%1%–5%Emerson CollegeOctober 1–3, 2021620 (LV)± 3.9%49%48%–1%2%Fox NewsSeptember 26–29, 2021901 (RV)± 3.0%48%44%–1%7%Roanoke CollegeSeptember 12–26, 2021603 (LV)± 4.6%48%41%1%1%9%Monmouth UniversitySeptember 22–26, 2021801 (RV)± 3.5%48%43%–2%8%801 (LV)48%45%–––801 (LV)50%43%–––Global Strategy Group (D) September 16–20, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%48%45%––7%KAConsulting LLC (R)September 17–19, 2021700 (LV)± 3.7%46%42%–1%10%Public Policy Polling (D)September 17–18, 2021875 (V)± 3.3%45%42%––13%Virginia Commonwealth University September 7–15, 2021731 (LV)± 6.9%43%34%–10%13%Emerson CollegeSeptember 13–14, 2021778 (LV)± 3.4%49%45%–2%5%University of Mary WashingtonSeptember 7–13, 20211,000 (A)± 3.1%43%38%2%6%11%885 (RV)± 3.3%46%41%2%––528 (LV)± 4.1%43%48%2%2%6%Washington Post/Schar School September 7–13, 2021907 (RV)± 4.0%49%43%–3%4%728 (LV)± 4.5%50%47%–1%2%WPA Intelligence (R)August 30 – September 2, 2021734 (LV)± 3.6%46%48%3%–4%48%48%––4%The Trafalgar Group (R)August 26–29, 20211,074 (LV)± 3.0%47%46%–2%5%Monmouth UniversityAugust 24–29, 2021802 (RV)± 3.5%47%42%–2%9%802 (LV)47%45%–––802 (LV)49%42%–––Christopher Newport UniversityAugust 15–23, 2021800 (LV)± 3.6%50%41%3%–6%Change Research (D)August 17–21, 20211,653 (LV)± 3.6%49%43%3%–5%Change Research (D)August 14–18, 20211,334 (LV)± 2.7%47%44%––9%Roanoke CollegeAugust 3–17, 2021558 (LV)± 4.2%46%38%2%1%13%Virginia Commonwealth UniversityAugust 4–15, 2021770 (RV)± 5.4%40%37%–15%9%~747 (LV)± 5.5%40%37%–14%9%co/efficient (R)August 8–9, 20211,200 (LV)± 2.8%47%45%––8%WPA Intelligence (R)August 3–5, 2021734 (LV)± 3.6%50%43%3%–4%51%45%––4%co/efficient (R)July 25–27, 2021762 (LV)± 3.5%45%40%2%–13%The Trafalgar Group (R)July 8–10, 20211,104 (LV)± 2.9%47%45%–4%4%Spry Strategies (R) July 6–9, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%46%41%–2%10%JMC Analytics and Polling (R)June 9–12, 2021550 (LV)± 4.2%46%42%––12%WPA Intelligence (R)June 2–6, 2021506 (LV)± 4.4%48%46%––5%

Results



Related pages
2025 Virginia gubernatorial election

Notes

References

Category:November 2021 events
Category:2021 elections in the United States
Category:Virginia elections
Category:Gubernatorial elections in the United States
Category:2020s in Virginia