Teori puncak Hubbert

Puncak teori Hubbert, juga dikenal dengan puncak minyak adalah sebuah teori berpengaruh mengenai pengambilan dan penghabisan jangka-panjang dari minyak bumi konvensional (dan bahan bakar fosil lainnya). Teori ini dinamakan atas seorang geofisikawan Amerika M. King Hubbert, yang menciptakan sebuah model dari persediaan yang diketahui, dan mengusulkan sebuah teori. Pada 1956, Hubbert mempresentasikan sebuah paper  pada rapat American Petroleum Institute di mana ia memperkirakan produksi minyak di Amerika Serikat akan memuncak pada 1965 dan 1970. Dan produksi minyak Amerika memang memuncak pada 1971 , dan telah berkurang sejak saat itu.

Hubbert mengusulkan bahwa perhitungan yang sama dapat diterapkan kekeadaan lainnya, seperti puncak produksi minyak dunia. Beberapa perkiraan untuk puncak produksi dunia telah dibuat oleh Hubbert dan lainnya, dengan beberapa tanggal tersebut sudah lewat pada masa lampau. Hal ini telah menimbulkan kritikan dari metode tersebut dan perkiraan yang dibuat dengan menggunakan metode tersebut.

Teori puncak Hubbert merupakan subjek dari diskusi yang berkelanjutan karena efek potensial dari produksi minyak yang rendah, dan karena debat yang terus berlanjut dari aspek kebijakan energi.

 Lihat pula 
 Abiogenic petroleum origin
 Krisis energi
 Ghawar Field
 Teori Olduvai
 Krisis energi 1973
 Krisis energi 1979
 1990 spike in the price of oil
 Peningkatan harga minyak 2004 dan 2005
 Ehrlich-Simon bet
 OPEC
 Peaknik
 Mati listrik
 Konservasi energi
 Pengembangan energi
 Energi terbaharui
 Tar sands
 Petrodollar

 Referensi 
 "Feature on United States oil production." (November, 2002) ASPO Newsletter #23 .
 Bentley, R.W. (2002). Global oil & gas depletion: an overview.  Energy Policy 30, 189–205
 Greene, D.L. & J.L. Hopson. (2003). Running Out of and Into Oil: Analyzing Global Depletion and Transition Through 2050 ORNL/TM-2003/259, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, Octobe
 Economists Challenge Causal Link Between Oil Shocks And Recessions (August 30, 2004). Middle East Economic Survey VOL. XLVII No 35
 Hubbert, M. King. (1956) Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels.  Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7-8-9, 1956.
 Maugeri, Leonardo (2004). Oil: Never Cry Wolf--Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over. Science 304, 1114-1115

 Bacaan lebih lanjut dan diskusi 
 Michael Ruppert, Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil, New Society Publishers, 2004, ISBN 0-86571-540-8
 M. King Hubbert, "Energy from Fossil Fuels", Science, vol. 109, pp. 103–109, February 4, 1949
 Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage , Princeton University Press, 2003, ISBN 0-691-11625-3
 Colin J. Campbell, The Coming Oil Crisis, Multi-Science Publishing Co. Ltd., 2004, ISBN 0-906522-11-0
 Richard Heinberg, The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies , New Society Publishers, 2003, ISBN 0-86571-482-7
 David Goodstein, Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil, W.W. Norton & Company, 2004, ISBN 0-393-05857-3
 Stephen Leeb and Donna Leeb, The Oil Factor: How Oil Controls the Economy and Your Financial Future , Warner Books, 2004, ISBN 0-446-53317-3
 Amory B. Lovins, E. Kyle Datta, Odd-Even Bustnes, Jonathan G. Koomey, Nathan J. Glasgow,  Winning the Oil Endgame: Innovation for Profits, Jobs, and Security , Rocky Mountain Institute, 2004, ISBN 1-881071-10-3
 Jeremy Rifkin, The Hydrogen Economy: After Oil, Clean Energy From a Fuel-Cell-Driven Global Hydrogen Web , Blackwell Publishers, 2002, ISBN 0-7456-3042-1
 Paul Roberts, The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World, Houghton Mifflin, 2004, ISBN 0-618-23977-4
 Paul Roberts, Last Stop Gas, Harper's Magazine, August 2004, pp. 71–72
 Documentary film The End of Suburbia
 Dismissal of the Claims of a Biological Connection for Natural Petroleum. 
 Howard James Kunstler The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century, Atlantic Monthly Press, 2005, ISBN 0-87113-888-3
 Matthew R. Simmons, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, Wiley, 2005, ISBN 0-471-73876-X

Film
 The Oilcrash , 2006

Pranala luar
 Peak Oil NZ 
 Peak Oil News 
 Peak Oil Wiki
 Big Picture TV Free video clip of petroleum geologist Colin Campbell discussing peak oil
 Energy Bulletin  - Peak oil related news stories
 Peak oil forum
 Dwindling Supply vs. Abundant Oil: A Timely Debate - General Session of the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2004
 New Peak Oil Website  - online videos, articles and statistics.
 Peak Oil reading list - Books, articles, web sites and more
 Energy news and views 
 Dry Dipstick  - A Peak Oil metadirectory
 Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), founded by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.
 The Bioregional Revolution -Organization promoting sustainability and bioregionalism in response to peak oil.

Advokasi teori Hubbert dan riset
 ASPO, Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
 ASPO Ireland  Dr Colin Campbell's Office
 ODAC, Oil Depletion Analysis Centre independent, UK education charity
 Peak Oil NZ 
 PowerSwitch.org.uk - Raising awareness of Britain's Energy Future
 Chevron's Peak Oil Website 
 PeakOilAction  people working together to raise awareness of oil depletion, prepare for post petroleum age
 International Peak Oil Awareness Meetup meet others in your area on 2nd Wednesday of month
 Peak oil and Technocracy 
 Oilcrash.com 
 Hubbert Peak of Oil Production 
 Energy Crisis/Shortage, English, German
 Culture Change, promotes lifestyle change as a reponse to the Hubbert peak
 Ecological Basis for Great Change
 Life After The Oil Crash
 Wolf at the Door 
 Die Off
 Planet for Life
 From the Wilderness
 Before The Wells Run Dry - Analysis about the oil situation from Feasta.org, an Irish website
 Facts on the inevitable world-wide energy transition.
 biography of Dr Hubbert ,
 Post Carbon Institute
 The End of Suburbia
 Global Public Media
 Global Public Media: Video & Sound interviews
 Sign the Oil Peak and Decline Declaration!
 M. King Hubbert Center for Petroleum Supply Studies
 OilEmpire.US: 9/11 and Peak Oil
 Evaluating Peak Oil scenarios - will we use the remaining oil for solar panels or fighter planes? 
 Permatopia.com - a graceful end to cheap oil
 Alt-E - Virtual watering hole for Alaskans groping their way into a future characterized by increasing high-quality primary-energy-source scarcity, i.e., a "bottleneck" future.
 Peak Oil Aware Shop - Strong, clear graphics to raise awareness of peak oil, printed t-shirts, stickers, buttons etc

Laporan/essays/lectures
 The unsustainability of full employment and cheap energy
 UK Survival in the 21st Century
 Review: Oil-based technology and economy - prospects for the future  The Danish Board of Technology (Teknologi-radet)
 M. King Hubbert on the Nature of Growth 
 Peakoil conference 19-20 October 2004 
 graph showing oil production in lower 48 US states following Hubbert's predictions 
 Peak Oil presentation by Dr. Campbell, TU Clausthal 
 Rep. Prof. Roscoe Bartlett's hour long Peak Oil presentation to (an empty) U.S. House of Representatives
 An Introduction to Peak Oil by Jim Bliss 
 Oil: Burnt Out?  theWatt.com article

Artikel
 "The End of Cheap Oil", Colin Campbell & Jean Laherrère on Peak Oil  Scientific American article
 Is the world's oil running out fast? BBC news article
 Oil: Is the end at hand? CNN article
 The end of oil is closer than you think The Guardian article
 The End of Oil? MIT Technology Review article
 David Goodstein on Peak Oil MSNBC news article
 How long will the world's oil last? MSNBC news article
 The End of Cheap Oil National Geographic article
 Will The End of Oil Mean The End of America?  Common Dreams NewsCenter article
 Top Saudi Says Kingdom Has Plenty of Oil "261 billion barrels in reserve..."

Forum/Blog/halaman diskusi
 Peak Oil News Blog 
 Peak Energy Blog (bg)
 mobjectivist Blog
 Resource Insights Blog
 Peak Energy Blog (mg)
 James Howard Kunstler
 Yahoo Group: Running on Empty
 The Oil Drum
 Ontic - PowerLess NZ
 Peakoil.com.
 Peak Oil Optimist
 How much peak-oil is being talked about  
 Flavor8: Energy Crisis News 
 The Energy Blog
 Alternate Energy Blogspot.
 theWatt Energy News and Discussion 
 ACT Peak Oil Discussion Group

Kritikan teori Hubbert
 Pemex's oil estimates double:  Mexican Oil company's estimate of reserves doubled.
 Peak Oil -- NOT!  - Directory page addresses the theory in circulation that oil is not solely of organic origin, but that there may be another, inexhaustible mode of origin from deeper in the crust, involving magma.
 Will We Run Out of Energy? by Mark Brandly
 Top Saudi Says Kingdom Has Plenty of Oil "261 billion barrels in reserve..."
 Why Peak Oil will be a non-event.
 The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers)
 The end of the age of oil? 
 Known Saudi Arabian Oil Reserves Tripled
 Peak production in the news again 
 International Energy Agency press release
 Oil shale back in the picture
 Dismissal of the Claims of a Biological Connection for Natural Petroleum. 
 Sustainable Oil?  (5-25-04 WorldNet Daily)
 More Evidence for Sustainable Oil (7-10-04 rense.com)
 Abiogenic Gas Debate 11:2002 (EXPLORER)
 Unconventional Ideas About Unconventional Gas (Society of Petroleum Engineers)
 Oil recovery technology, Nexial Institute (NEXIT), Dr. James H. L. Lawler Integrated system promising virtual total recovery, in excess of 95%
 Texas Research Institute Promises a Way Out of the Energy Crisis 
 Peak Oil Debunked
 Lee Raymond of Exxon Mobile believes oil supplies will rise

Kategori:Teori ekonomi
Kategori:Minyak
Kategori:Futurologi

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