Zaben tarayya na Jamus na 2025

An gudanar da Zaben tarayya a Jamus a ranar 23 ga Fabrairu 2025 don zabar mambobi 630 na Bundestag Na 21, daga 736 a 2021 saboda sauye-sauye a rarraba kujerun. Zaben 2025 ya faru ne watanni bakwai kafin jadawalin saboda rushewar Haɗin gwiwar Scholz ta 2024. Bayan asarar mafi rinjaye, shugaban majalisa ya kira kuma da gangan ya rasa amincewa, wanda ya ba da damar amincewa da sabon zabe daga shugaban. Zaben 2025 shine zaben gaggawa na huɗu a tarihin Jamus bayan yakin, kuma na farko tun shekara ta 2005.

Jam'iyyun adawa guda uku sun kara kuri'unsu a zaben, idan aka kwatanta da zaben tarayya da ya gabata a shekarar 2021. Kungiyar CDU / CSU mai ra'ayin mazan jiya ta zama babbar kungiya a Bundestag, tare da kashi 28.5% na kuri'un. Kodayake wannan sakamakon ya kasance ƙasa da kuri'un 41.5% da Angela Merkel ta samu a 2013 kuma ta biyu zuwa mafi muni tun 1949, ya sanya su don jagorantar sabuwar gwamnati. Kungiyar Alternative for Germany (AfD) mai tsattsauran ra'ayi tare da kashi 20.8% ya ninka rabonsa kuma ya sami sakamako mafi kyau a zaben Jamus na kasa, yana motsawa zuwa matsayi na biyu, ba tare da wata jam'iyya da ke son yin aiki tare da su ba. Jam'iyyar Socialist Left, da ta yi zabe a kasa da 5% har zuwa Janairu 2025, ta inganta sosai a cikin 'yan makonni zuwa 9%. A gefe guda, Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), wani yanki mai tsattsauran ra'ayi daga Hagu, ya fadi a cikin kuri'un, kuma a kashi 4.98% ya kasa shiga Bundestag.

Jam'iyyun uku na tsohuwar "Traffic light coalition" duk sun rasa goyon baya. Jam'iyyar Social Democratic Party (SPD) ta tsakiya ta rasa kashi tara kuma ta sauka zuwa matsayi na uku tare da kashi 16.4 cikin dari, sakamakon su mafi muni tun 1887. Sauran matasan su, The Green, suma sun ragu daga 15% zuwa 12%, har yanzu sakamako na biyu mafi kyau. Jam'iyyar Free Democratic Party (FDP), wacce tashi daga gwamnati ta hanzarta zaben, ta rubuta mafi munin sakamakon tarihi tare da kashi 4.3%, kuma ta rasa dukkan wakilci a Bundestag, kamar yadda ya faru a baya a shekarar 2013. 

Kungiyar Masu Zabe ta Kudancin Schleswig (SSW), wacce a matsayin jam'iyya da ke wakiltar 'yan tsiraru na Danish a Schleswig-Holstein ba ta da iyaka daga ƙofar 5%, ta riƙe kujerar su guda ɗaya tare da jimlar kuri'u 76,138 (0.15%). Adadin masu jefa kuri'a ya kai 82.5%, karuwar kashi shida daga 2021, kuma mafi girma tun lokacin da Jamus ta sake haɗuwa. A ranar 9 ga Afrilu 2025, CDU / CSU da SPD sun sami yarjejeniyar hadin gwiwa mai mulki.  

Majalisar dokokin Jamus ta zabi Friedrich Merz a matsayin shugaban majalisa a ranar 6 ga Mayu 2025. Tun da farko a wannan rana, Merz ya kasa tabbatar da shi a matsayin shugaban majalisa a zagaye na farko na jefa kuri'a, don haka ya buƙaci zagaye na biyu - halin da ba a taɓa gani ba a tarihin Jamus bayan yakin.

 Tarihi 

 Ranar da aka ba shi 
daga]-linkid="456" href="./Basic_Law_for_the_Federal_Republic_of_Germany" id="mwZQ" rel="mw:WikiLink" title="Basic Law for the Federal Republic of Germany">Dokar asali ta Jamus da Dokar Zabe ta Tarayya [de] sun ba da cewa dole ne a gudanar da zabubbukan tarayya a ranar Lahadi ko hutu na kasa  ba kafin 46 ba kuma ba daga baya ba bayan watanni 48 bayan zaman farko na Bundestag sai dai idan an rushe Bundestag a baya. Bundestag na 20 da ke zaune ya gudanar da zamansa na farko a ranar 26 ga Oktoba 2021. Saboda haka, za a gudanar da zabe na yau da kullun na gaba a ranar Lahadi tsakanin 31 ga Agusta 2025 da 26 ga Oktoba 2025. A watan Agustan 2024, Majalisar Tarayya da farko ta ba da shawarar 28 ga Satumba 2025 a matsayin ranar zabe, wanda Shugaba Frank-Walter Steinmeier ya amince da shi.

 Zaben gaggawa 
Za a iya gudanar da Zaben Tarayya a baya idan shugaban kasa ya rushe Bundestag kuma ya shirya zaben gaggawa. Za su iya yin hakan ne kawai a karkashin yanayi biyu da Dokar Tushen ta bayyana:

 Bayan zaben tarayya ko wani gurbi a ofishin shugaban kasa, idan Bundestag ya kasa zabar shugaban kasa tare da mafi rinjaye na mambobinsa a rana ta 15 bayan kuri'a ta farko, shugaban kasa yana da 'yanci ko dai ya nada dan takarar da ya sami kuri'u da yawa a matsayin shugaban kasa ko kuma ya rushe Bundestag (bisa ga Mataki na 63, Sashe na 4).
 Idan shugaban kasa ya gabatar da amincewa wanda ya kasa, za su iya neman shugaban kasa ya rushe Bundestag. Shugaban kasa na iya ba da ko ƙin buƙatar shugaban kasa (bisa ga Mataki na 68).

A lokuta biyu, za a gudanar da zaben tarayya a ranar Lahadi ko hutu na kasa ba tare da kwanaki 60 ba bayan rushewar. 

Bayan Rikicin gwamnati, Olaf Scholz ya kori shugaban FDP Christian Lindner daga Gwamnati mai mulki a ranar 6 ga Nuwamba 2024, wanda ya haifar da rushewar hadin gwiwar hasken zirga-zirga kuma ya bar gwamnati ba tare da rinjaye ba. A wannan rana, Shugaba Scholz ya ba da sanarwar cewa zai gabatar da amincewa don gudanar da zaben gaggawa; an fara shirya wannan ne don Janairu 2025 don zaben Maris amma an gabatar da shi bayan matsin lamba daga 'yan adawa.

Scholz ya gabatar da amincewa ga Bundestag a ranar 11 ga Disamba 2024, wanda aka kawo ga kuri'a a ranar 16 ga Disamba. [1] Wannan motsi ya buƙaci mafi rinjaye na kuri'u 367 don wucewa. Ba a cimma wannan ba, tare da kuri'u 207 na gaskiya, 394 babu kuri'u, 116 da suka ƙi, da 16 da ba su da ko ba su jefa kuri'a.[2] Daga cikin mambobin da suka halarci taron kuma suka jefa kuri'a, ƙungiyar SPD ta kada kuri'a don amincewa, yayin da duk kungiyoyin adawa ban da mambobi uku daga AfD suka kada kuri'ar adawa da amincewa. Dukkanin mambobin Green sun guje wa tabbatar da cewa motsi zai kasa ba tare da jefa kuri'a a kan hadin gwiwar ta ba.[3]

Bayan gazawar kuri'ar, Scholz ya tafi Fadar Bellevue don saduwa da Shugaba Steinmeier kuma ya ba da shawarar rushewa. Jam'iyyun da ke mulki da CDU / CSU sun amince cewa 23 ga Fabrairu 2025 ya zama ranar da za a gudanar da zaben gaggawa. Ba a tilasta wa shugaban kasa ya ba da rushewa ba, kuma Dokar Tushen ta ba shi damar yanke shawara na kwanaki 21. Shugaban kasa kuma yana da ikon saita ranar zabe, kodayake ya amince da shawarar jam'iyyun. Steinmeier ya fara tattaunawa da dukkan shugabannin jam'iyya, saboda yana da aikin tsarin mulki don sanin ko akwai yiwuwar rinjaye a cikin Bundestag na yanzu. A ranar 20 ga watan Disamba, ofishin Steinmeier ya fitar da wata sanarwa da ta tabbatar da cewa an kammala tattaunawar kuma babu yiwuwar rinjaye.   Steinmeier a hukumance ya rushe Bundestag a ranar 27 ga Disamba, a lokaci guda ya sa ranar zaben a ranar 23 ga Fabrairu.

 Tsarin zabe 
alt=Skewed view of an elementary school with orange sign "Stimmbezirk 18"|thumb|Wata makaranta a Jamus da aka yi amfani da ita a matsayin tashar zabe don zaben 2025
Jamus tana da tsarin zaɓe na mambobi masu yawa, wanda ke ba da izinin wakilci na abubuwan da suka shafi gida (makilai guda 299) da kuma yawan kuri'un da aka bayar a matakin jam'iyya. Masu jefa kuri'a suna da kuri'u biyu: na farko ga wakilin mazabar mutum, kuma na biyu ga jerin jam'iyyun.

 Zabe na farko 
A cikin kuri'un farko, masu jefa kuri'a sun nuna zaɓin dan takara guda ɗaya don wakiltar mazabar su. Ana lissafin sakamakon ne akan hanyar farko da ta wuce, watau dan takarar da ya sami mafi yawan kuri'u ana ɗaukarsa mai nasara. Kafin zaben 2025, an zabi wanda ya ci nasara a kowane mazabar ta atomatik zuwa Bundestag. 

 Zabe na biyu 
zabe na biyu shine mafi mahimmanci kamar yadda zabar jam'iyya, mafi mahimmanci jerin sunayen za ~ en na jihar, yana ba da gudummawa ga rabon shahararrun ƙasa kuma yana da mahimmanci don ƙayyade abubuwan da ke cikin Bundestag. Adadin kuri'u na biyu kuma yana ƙayyade rabon kujerun da aka ba jihar, yayin da kujerun leken da wata jam'iyya ta samu ana rarraba su daidai da kowane jerin jihohin ta.

Don shiga cikin rarraba kujeru daidai, jam'iyya dole ne ta sami kashi biyar cikin dari na kuri'un na biyu a duk fadin kasar ko kuma ta lashe mazabu uku ta hanyar kuri'un farko don wuce Ƙofar zaɓe. Jam'iyyun da ke wakiltar 'yan tsiraru da aka amince da su da ke fafatawa da zaben tarayya, a halin yanzu SSW ne kawai, an cire su daga ƙofar 5%, amma har yanzu dole ne su sami damar zama daidai, don samun wakilci.

 Manazarta 

Rukuni:Shafuka masu fassarorin da ba'a duba ba