The Singularity Is Neare

Littafin "The Singleality Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology" littafi ne da ba na almara ba wanda aka buga a shekarar 2005 game da basirar wucin gadi da makomar ɗan adam ta hannun mai ƙirƙira kuma mai hangen nesa Ray Kurzweil . An fitar da wani littafi na gaba, The Singleality Is Nearer, a ranar 25 ga Yuni, 2024. 

Littafin ya gina ne bisa ra'ayoyin da aka gabatar a littattafan Kurzweil na baya, The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990) da The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999). A cikin littafin, Kurzweil ya rungumi kalmar " singularity ", wadda Vernor Vinge ya shahara da ita a cikin rubutunsa na 1993 mai suna "The Coming Technology Singlelarity." 

Kurzweil ya bayyana Dokarsa ta Haɓaka Dawowa, wadda ke hasashen ƙaruwar fasaha kamar kwamfutoci, ilimin halittar jiki, fasahar nanotechnology, robotics da kuma fasahar wucin gadi . Da zarar an cimma daidaito, Kurzweil ya ce basirar injina za ta fi ƙarfi fiye da duk wata dabarar ɗan adam da aka haɗa. Bambancin kuma shine wurin da hankali na injina da mutane za su haɗu; Kurzweil ya annabta wannan ranar: "Na sanya ranar Singularity - wanda ke wakiltar babban canji mai rikitarwa a cikin iyawar ɗan adam - a matsayin 2045". 

 Abubuwan da ke ciki 

 Ci gaban magana 
Kurzweil ya kwatanta juyin halitta a kowane lokaci a matsayin ci gaba ta cikin shekaru shida, kowannensu yana ginawa akan wanda ya gabata. Ya ce shekaru hudu da suka faru zuwa yanzu sune Physics da Chemistry, Biology da DNA, Kwakwalwa, da Fasaha . Kurzweil ya annabta cewa muƙamin zai yi daidai da zamani na gaba, Haɗakar Fasahar Dan Adam da Hankali na Dan Adam . Bayan muƙamin, ya ce zamanin ƙarshe zai faru, Duniya Ta Farka . 

Kurzweil ya bayyana cewa ci gaban juyin halitta yana da matuƙar amfani saboda kyakkyawan ra'ayi ; ana amfani da sakamakon mataki ɗaya don ƙirƙirar mataki na gaba. Ci gaban jujjuyawar abu ne mai ruɗi, kusan ba shi da tabbas a farko har sai ya kai ga abin da Kurzweil ya kira "gwiwa a cikin lanƙwasa" sannan ya tashi kusan a tsaye.  A gaskiya Kurzweil ya yi imanin cewa ci gaban juyin halitta yana da matuƙar amfani saboda ana amfani da ƙarin albarkatu don tsarin nasara. A matsayin misali na ci gaban jujjuyawar abu, Kurzweil ya ambaci kasuwancin guntu na kwamfuta. Jimillar kasafin kuɗi ga masana'antar gaba ɗaya yana ƙaruwa akan lokaci, tunda 'ya'yan ci gaban ƙari sun sa ya zama jari mai kyau; a halin yanzu ƙarin kasafin kuɗi yana ƙara samar da ƙarin ƙirƙira wanda ke sa masana'antar ta girma da sauri, ta yadda ya zama misali na ci gaban jujjuyawar abu biyu. 

Kurzweil yana umurtan ci gaban juyin halitta ya yi kama da santsi, amma a zahiri an raba shi zuwa siffofi, takamaiman hanyoyin magance matsaloli. Kowane tsari yana farawa da ci gaba a hankali, yana ginawa zuwa girma cikin sauri, sannan ya daidaita. Yayin da tsari ɗaya ya rage, matsin lamba yana ƙaruwa don nemo ko haɓaka sabon tsari. Don haka abin da ya yi kama da lanƙwasa mai santsi guda ɗaya hakika jerin ƙananan lanƙwasa S ne.  Misali, Kurzweil ya lura cewa lokacin da bututun injinan iska suka daina yin sauri, transistors masu rahusa suka shahara kuma suka ci gaba da ci gaban gabaɗaya. 

Kurzweil ya kira wannan ci gaban da ake samu a matsayin dokar hanzarta dawowa, kuma ya yi imanin cewa ya shafi fasahohi da dama da ɗan adam ya ƙirƙira kamar ƙwaƙwalwar kwamfuta, transistors, microprocessors, jerin DNA, ajiyar maganadisu, adadin masu masaukin Intanet, zirga-zirgar Intanet, raguwar girman na'urori, da ambato da haƙƙin mallaka na nanotech.  Kurzweil ya kawo misalai biyu na tarihi na ci gaban da ake samu a fannin nanotech: Aikin Halittar Dan Adam da ci gaban Intanet .  Kurzweil ya yi iƙirarin cewa tattalin arzikin duniya gaba ɗaya yana ƙaruwa sosai, kodayake ci gaba da bunƙasa na ɗan gajeren lokaci suna ɓoye wannan yanayin. 

 Ƙarfin lissafi 
alt=Plot showing Moore's law|thumb|Dokar Moore
Babban ginshiki a cikin hujjar Kurzweil shine cewa don isa ga keɓantaccen abu, ƙarfin lissafi yana da matsala kamar sauran abubuwa kamar ingancin algorithms da fahimtar kwakwalwar ɗan adam. Dokar Moore ta annabta cewa ƙarfin da'irori masu haɗawa yana ƙaruwa sosai, amma ba har abada ba. Kurzweil yana jin cewa ƙaruwar ƙarfin da'irori masu haɗawa zai ragu nan da shekarar 2020.  Yana jin kwarin gwiwa cewa sabon tsari zai fara a wannan lokacin don ci gaba da ci gaban da aka annabta ta hanyar dokarsa ta hanzarta dawowa. Kurzweil ya bayyana siffofi huɗu na lissafi waɗanda suka zo kafin da'irori masu haɗawa: electromechanical, relay, vacuum tube, da transistors.  Ba a san abin da fasaha za ta bi da'irori masu haɗawa, don zama tsari na shida ba, amma Kurzweil ya yi imanin cewa nanotubes sune mafi yuwuwar madadin tsakanin damammaki da dama:na'urorin nanotube da na'urorin nanotube, na'urorin kwamfuta na kwayoyin halitta, haɗa kai a cikin da'irorin nanotube, tsarin halittu masu kwaikwayon taron da'ira, na'urorin kwamfuta da DNA, na'urorin spintronics (na'urorin kwamfuta da juyawar electrons), na'urorin kwamfuta da haske, da na'urorin kwamfuta na kwantum . Tunda Kurzweil ya yi imanin cewa ƙarfin lissafi zai ci gaba da ƙaruwa sosai tsawon lokaci bayan Dokar Moore ta ƙare, daga ƙarshe zai yi gogayya da ƙarfin kwamfuta na ɗan adam. Kurzweil ya duba kiyasi daban-daban na yawan ƙarfin kwamfuta a cikin kwakwalwa kuma ya daidaita akan lissafin 10 16 a kowace daƙiƙa da kuma 10 13 na ƙwaƙwalwa. Ya rubuta cewa $1,000 za ta sayi ƙarfin kwamfuta daidai da kwakwalwa ɗaya "daga kusan 2020"  yayin da nan da 2045, farkon singlerity, ya ce adadin kuɗi zai sayi iko sau biliyan ɗaya fiye da duk kwakwalwar ɗan adam da aka haɗa a yau.  Kurzweil ya yarda cewa yanayin ƙaruwar ƙarfin kwamfuta zai kai iyaka daga ƙarshe, amma ya ƙididdige wannan iyaka zuwa tiriliyan sau fiye da abin da ake buƙata don singlerity. 

 Kwakwalwa 
alt=Plot showing the exponential growth of computing|left|thumb|Ci gaban fasaha na kwamfuta
Kurzweil ya lura cewa ƙarfin lissafi kaɗai ba zai haifar da basirar wucin gadi ba. Ya yi iƙirarin cewa hanya mafi kyau ta gina basirar injina ita ce ta fara fahimtar basirar ɗan adam. Mataki na farko shine a yi hoton kwakwalwa, a leƙa ciki. Kurzweil ya yi iƙirarin cewa fasahar daukar hoto kamar PET da fMRI suna ƙaruwa sosai a ƙuduri  yayin da yake hasashen cewa za a sami ƙarin cikakkun bayanai a cikin 2020s lokacin da zai yiwu a duba kwakwalwa daga ciki ta amfani da nanobots.  Da zarar an san tsarin jiki da bayanan haɗin kai, Kurzweil ya ce masu bincike za su samar da samfuran aiki na sassan ƙananan ƙwayoyin halitta da synapses har zuwa dukkan sassan kwakwalwa.  Kwakwalwar ɗan adam "tsari ne mai rikitarwa na tsarin rikitarwa, amma ba ya wakiltar matakin rikitarwa fiye da abin da muka riga muka iya sarrafawa". 

Bayan aikin injiniyan kwakwalwa na baya domin fahimtar da kuma kwaikwayon sa, Kurzweil ya gabatar da ra'ayin "lodawa" takamaiman kwakwalwa tare da kowace hanyar tunani, don a gabatar da ita a kan "ƙaƙƙarfan tsarin lissafi mai ƙarfi". Ya rubuta cewa tsarin ƙira na gabaɗaya yana buƙatar lissafi 10 16 a kowace daƙiƙa da kuma 10 13 na ƙwaƙwalwa, amma sai ya bayyana cewa lodawa yana buƙatar ƙarin bayani, wataƙila har zuwa 10 19 cps da 10 18 bit. Kurzweil ya ce fasahar yin wannan za ta kasance nan da 2040.  Maimakon yin scanning nan take da canzawa zuwa siffar dijital, Kurzweil yana jin cewa mutane za su iya fuskantar sauyawa a hankali yayin da ake ƙara sassan kwakwalwarsu da dashen jijiyoyi, suna ƙara yawan hankalinsu na rashin ilimin halitta a hankali akan lokaci. 

Kurzweil ya yi imanin cewa babu "wani gwaji na zahiri da zai iya tantance" kasancewar sani.  Saboda haka, ya ce basirar da ba ta ilimin halitta ba za ta yi iƙirarin cewa tana da sani da kuma "cikakkiyar irin abubuwan da mutane ke da'awar ji da ruhi da suke da'awar yi";  yana jin cewa za a yarda da irin waɗannan da'awar gabaɗaya.

 Tsarin Halittar Jini, nanotechnology da kuma robotics (AI) 
Kurzweil ya ce juyin juya hali a fannin kwayoyin halitta, fasahar nano da kuma fasahar robotics za su kawo farkon bambancin.  Kurzweil yana jin cewa da isasshen fasahar kwayoyin halitta ya kamata a kiyaye jiki har abada, yana maido da tsufa yayin da yake warkar da cutar kansa, cututtukan zuciya da sauran cututtuka.  Yawancin wannan zai yiwu ne godiya ga fasahar nano, juyin juya hali na biyu, wanda ya ƙunshi kwayar halitta ta hanyar gina ƙwayoyin halitta na kayan aiki waɗanda kansu za su iya "sake gina duniyar zahiri".  A ƙarshe, juyin juya halin a cikin fasahar robotics zai zama ci gaban AI mai ƙarfi, wanda aka ayyana a matsayin injuna waɗanda ke da hankali na matakin ɗan adam ko sama da haka.  Wannan ci gaba zai zama mafi mahimmanci na ƙarni, "wanda zai iya kwatantawa da mahimmancin ci gaban ilimin halittu da kansa". 

Kurzweil ya yarda cewa kowace fasaha tana ɗauke da haɗarin amfani da miyagun ƙwayoyi ko cin zarafi, daga ƙwayoyin cuta da nanobots zuwa na'urorin AI marasa iko. Ya yi imanin cewa kawai hanyar da za a bi ita ce a saka hannun jari a fasahar kariya, misali ta hanyar ba da damar sabbin kwayoyin halitta da magunguna, sa ido kan ƙwayoyin cuta masu haɗari, da kuma ƙirƙirar ƙuntatawa kan wasu fasahohi. Dangane da basirar wucin gadi, Kurzweil yana jin cewa mafi kyawun kariya ita ce ƙara "ƙimar 'yanci, haƙuri, da girmama ilimi da bambancin ra'ayi" a cikin al'umma, saboda "hankali mara ilimin halitta zai kasance a cikin al'ummarmu kuma zai nuna dabi'unmu".

 Bambancin 
alt=Plot showing the countdown the singularity|thumb|Ƙidaya zuwa ga muƙamin
Kurzweil ya tabo tarihin ra'ayin singlerity, yana mai da hankali kan John von Neumann a shekarun 1950 da IJ Good a shekarun 1960. Ya kwatanta singlerity ɗinsa da na lissafi ko na ilmin taurari. Duk da cewa ra'ayoyinsa na singlerity ba su da iyaka a zahiri, ya ce yana kama da haka daga kowane mahangar da ba ta da iyaka. 

A lokacin da ake magana a kan muƙamin, Kurzweil ya annabta cewa "rayuwar ɗan adam za ta canza ba tare da wata matsala ba"  kuma cewa mutane za su wuce "iyakokin jikinmu da kwakwalwarmu".  Ya duba fiye da muƙamin don ya ce "hankali da zai fito zai ci gaba da wakiltar wayewar ɗan adam." Bugu da ƙari, yana jin cewa "injunan nan gaba za su kasance kamar ɗan adam, koda kuwa ba na halitta ba ne". 

Kurzweil ya yi iƙirarin cewa da zarar basirar da ba ta ilimin halittu ba ta mamaye yanayin rayuwar ɗan adam, yanayin rayuwar ɗan adam zai canza sosai:  za a sami sauye-sauye masu mahimmanci a yadda mutane ke koyo, aiki da wasa.  Kurzweil ya hango nanobots waɗanda ke ba mutane damar cin duk abin da suke so yayin da suke da sirara da ƙoshin lafiya, samar da kuzari mai yawa, yaƙi da cututtuka ko ciwon daji, maye gurbin gabobi da haɓaka kwakwalwarsu. Daga ƙarshe jikin mutane zai ƙunshi ƙarin abubuwa da yawa har za su iya canza "bayyanuwar jiki a duk lokacin da suka ga dama". 

Kurzweil ya ce dokar hanzarta dawowa ta nuna cewa da zarar wayewa ta haɓaka fasahar injiniya ta asali, sai ƙarnuka kaɗan kafin su cimma duk abin da aka tsara a cikin littafin, a lokacin ne za ta fara faɗaɗawa waje, ta cika duniya da hankali. Tunda mutane ba su sami wata shaida ta wasu wayewa ba, Kurzweil ya yi imanin cewa mutane su kaɗai ne a cikin sararin samaniya. Don haka Kurzweil ya kammala da cewa ƙaddarar ɗan adam ce ta yin cikawa, ta hanyar haɗa dukkan abubuwa da kuzari a cikin wannan tsari.  

Dangane da asalin mutum a lokacin waɗannan canje-canje masu ƙarfi, Kurzweil ya ba da shawarar cewa mutane suna tunanin kansu a matsayin wani tsari mai tasowa maimakon takamaiman tarin ƙwayoyin halitta. Kurzweil ya ce juyin halitta yana motsawa zuwa "mafi girman rikitarwa, mafi girman kyan gani, mafi girman ilimi, mafi girman hankali, mafi girman kyau, mafi girman kerawa, da manyan matakai na halaye masu zurfi kamar ƙauna".  Ya ce waɗannan halaye, a iyaka, galibi ana amfani da su don bayyana Allah. Wannan yana nufin, ya ci gaba, cewa juyin halitta yana motsawa zuwa ga fahimtar Allah kuma cewa sauyawa daga tushen halittu a zahiri aiki ne na ruhaniya. 

 Hasashen 
Kurzweil bai haɗa da ainihin jadawalin da aka rubuta na baya da na gaba ba, kamar yadda ya yi a cikin Age of Intelligent Machines da The Age of Spiritual Machines, duk da haka har yanzu yana yin hasashe na musamman da yawa. Kurzweil ya rubuta cewa nan da shekarar 2010, babban kwamfuta zai sami ƙarfin lissafi don yin koyi da hankali na ɗan adam  kuma "kimanin 2020" wannan ƙarfin zai kasance "kan dala dubu ɗaya".  Bayan wannan muhimmin mataki, yana tsammanin na'urar daukar hoton kwakwalwar ɗan adam za ta ba da gudummawa ga ingantaccen samfurin hankali na ɗan adam "daga tsakiyar 2020s".  Waɗannan abubuwa biyu za su ƙare da kwamfutoci waɗanda za su iya cin jarrabawar Turing nan da 2029.  Nan da farkon 2030s, adadin lissafin da ba na halitta ba zai wuce "ikon dukkan hankali na ɗan adam na halitta".  A ƙarshe, haɓakar ƙarfin kwamfuta zai haifar da bambanci. Kurzweil ya bayyana ranar a sarari: "Na sanya ranar Singularity - wanda ke wakiltar babban sauyi mai rikitarwa a cikin ikon ɗan adam - a matsayin 2045". 

 Liyafar maraba 

 Bincike 
Sukar da aka saba yi wa littafin ta shafi "kuskuren girma na musamman". Misali, a shekarar 1969, mutane sun sauka a kan wata . Idan aka yi la'akari da girman girma daga can, za a yi tsammanin manyan sansanonin wata da kuma ayyukan da aka yi a duniyoyi masu nisa. Madadin haka, bincike ya tsaya cak ko ma ya koma baya bayan haka. Paul Davies ya rubuta "babban batun game da girman girma na musamman shine cewa ba ya daɗewa"  sau da yawa saboda ƙarancin albarkatu. A gefe guda kuma, an nuna cewa saurin duniya har zuwa kwanan nan ya biyo bayan wani tsari mai tsauri maimakon na musamman. 

Theodore Modis ya ce "babu wani abu a cikin yanayi da ke bin 

Duk da cewa wasu masu suka suna korafin cewa dokar hanzarta dawowa ba doka ce ta yanayi ba Davies, Paul (23 March 2006). "When computers take over" (PDF). Nature. 440 (7083): 421–422. Bibcode:2006Natur.440..421D. doi:10.1038/440421a. S2CID 4319656. Retrieved 15 February 2013. wasu kuma suna tambayar dalilan addini ko tasirin keɓancewar Kurzweil. An kwatanta ginawa zuwa ga keɓancewar da yanayin ƙarshen zamani na Yahudanci da Kirista. Beam ya kira shi "hangen nesa na Buck Rogers na zato na Fyaucewa ta Kirista".  John Gray ya ce "keɓancewar tana maimaita tatsuniyoyi na ƙarshen zamani inda tarihi zai katse ta hanyar wani abu mai canza duniya". 

Sau da yawa ana tattauna yanayin tsauraran hasashe na Kurzweil. Anthony Doerr ya ce kafin ka "yi watsi da shi a matsayin sha'awar fasaha" ka yi la'akari da cewa "kowace rana layin da ke tsakanin abin da yake na ɗan adam da abin da ba na ɗan adam ba yana ƙara ɓatar da hankali". Ya lissafa fasahar zamani, a cikin 2006, kamar kwamfutocin da ke saukar da jiragen sama masu ƙarfi ko kuma magungunan haihuwa a cikin vitro kuma ya tambaya ko dashen kwakwalwa da ke shiga intanet ko robot a cikin jininmu da gaske ba abin yarda ba ne. 

Dangane da aikin injiniyan kwakwalwa na baya, masanin kimiyyar jijiyoyi David J. Linden ya rubuta cewa "Kurzweil yana haɗa tattara bayanan halittu da fahimtar halittu". Yana jin cewa tattara bayanai na iya ƙaruwa sosai, amma fahimta tana ƙaruwa ne kawai a layi ɗaya. Misali, saurin da farashin jerin kwayoyin halitta suma suna inganta sosai, amma fahimtarmu game da kwayoyin halitta tana ƙaruwa a hankali. Dangane da nanobots, Linden ya yi imanin cewa sararin da ake da shi a cikin kwakwalwa don kewayawa ƙanana ne kawai. Ya yarda cewa wata rana mutane za su fahimci kwakwalwa gaba ɗaya, sai dai ba a kan jadawalin tatsuniyar Kurzweil ba.

 Sharhi 
Paul Davies ya rubuta a cikin Nature cewa The Singularity is Near wani "wani abu ne mai ban sha'awa wanda ke kewaye da yuwuwar fasaha" yayin da yake gargadin cewa "hasashe mai ban sha'awa yana da daɗi a karanta, amma yana buƙatar a sha shi da gishiri mai yawa." Davies, Paul (23 March 2006). "When computers take over" (PDF). Nature. 440 (7083): 421–422. Bibcode:2006Natur.440..421D. doi:10.1038/440421a. S2CID 4319656. Retrieved 15 February 2013.

Anthony Doerr a cikin littafin The Boston Globe ya rubuta "Littafin Kurzweil abin mamaki ne, mai wayo, kuma mai jan hankali. Yana rubuta jimloli masu tsabta na tsari, ya haɗa da tattaunawa mai ban dariya da haruffa a nan gaba da baya, kuma yana amfani da jadawali waɗanda kusan koyaushe ake iya samu."  yayin da abokin aikinsa Alex Beam ya nuna cewa "An tarbi masu ra'ayin rashin ra'ayi da shakku mai ƙarfi".  Janet Maslin a cikin littafin The New York Times ta rubuta " The Singlelarity Is Near yana da ban mamaki a cikin sararin samaniya da jarumtaka", amma ta ce "yawancin tunaninsa yana kama da na sama." Ta lura cewa ya fi mai da hankali kan sakamako mai kyau maimakon haɗarin. 

 Al'adar da ta shahara 
Mawakin Amurka Prince ya rubuta wata waƙa mai suna 2045: Radical Man bisa ga ka'idar singularity, bayan ya ji bitar littafin Kurzweil kan shirin Infowars na makirci. An nuna waƙar a cikin waƙar Spike Jonze mai suna Bamboozled .

 Daidaita fina-finai 
A shekara ta 2006, Barry Ptolemy da kamfanin shirya fina-finai nasa Ptolemaic Productions sun ba da lasisin haƙƙin mallakar littafin The Singularity Is Near from Kurzweil. Wannan littafin ya ba Ptolemy kwarin gwiwa, inda ya shirya fim ɗin Transcendent Man, wanda ya jawo hankali sosai ga littafin.

Kurzweil shi ma ya jagoranci shirya fina-finansa, wanda aka shirya tare da haɗin gwiwar Terasem ; The Singularity is Near ya haɗu da hirarraki na tarihi da labarin almara na kimiyya wanda ya shafi juyin halittarsa na robot Ramona zuwa fasaha ta wucin gadi . An nuna fim ɗin a bikin fina-finai na duniya, bikin fina-finai na Woodstock, bikin fina-finai na duniya na Warsaw, bikin fina-finai na San Antonio a 2010 da kuma bikin fina-finai na San Francisco Indie a 2011, an fitar da fim ɗin gabaɗaya a ranar 20 ga Yuli, 2012.  Ana samunsa akan DVD ko saukar da dijital.  

 Fassarori 

 奇点迫近[奇点临近]. Mai Fassara: Zhenhua Dong.
 Yaren mutanen Holland: De singulariteit nabij ne
 Faransanci: L'humanité 2.0
 Hungarian: A szingularitás küszöbén
 Italiyanci: La singolarità è vicina
 Yaren Koriya: 특이점이 온다
 Mutanen Espanya: La Singularidad está cerca
 Jamusanci: Menschheit 2.0. Die Singularität naht
 Baturke: İnsanlık 2.0: Tekilliğe Doğru Biyolojisini Aşan İnsan
 Yaren mutanen Poland: Nadchodzi Osobliwość
 Ibrananci: Kineret הסינגולריות מתקרבת 2012

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