Kwarewar tsinkaya

A fannonin tsinkaya da tsinkaya, ƙwarewar tsinkaya ko ƙwarewar hasashen shine kowane ma'auni na daidaito da / ko matakin haɗin tsinkaya zuwa lura ko kimanta ainihin darajar abin da ake hasashen (a hukumance, tsinkaya); ana iya ƙididdige shi azaman ƙwarewar ƙwarewa.

A cikin ilimin yanayi, musamman a cikin Hasashen yanayi, ƙwarewa tana auna fifiko na hasashen a kan tushen tarihi mai sauƙi na abubuwan da suka gabata. Hanyar hasashen iri ɗaya na iya haifar da ƙwarewa daban-daban a wurare daban-daban, ko ma a wuri ɗaya don yanayi daban-daban (misali, yanayin bazara na iya haifar wa yanayin gida mara kyau, yayin da sanyi na hunturu na iya haɗawa da iskar polar). Sau da yawa ana gabatar da ƙwarewar hasashen yanayi a cikin nau'ikan taswirar ƙasa.

Kwarewar tsinkaya don tsinkaye guda ɗaya (watau, jerin lokaci na adadi mai yawa) ana wakiltar su ne dangane da ma'auni kamar daidaituwa, kuskuren ma'aunin ma'aikatar, ma'anar cikakkiyar kuskure, kuskurin ma'aini, son zuciya, da Brier score, da sauransu. Ana amfani da ƙididdigar da ke da alaƙa da manufar entropy a cikin ka'idar bayanai.

Ana iya amfani da kalmar 'ƙwarewar hasashen' a matsayin inganci, a wannan yanayin zai iya komawa ga aikin hasashen bisa ga ma'auni ɗaya ko kuma aikin hasashen gaba ɗaya bisa ga maɓallan da yawa.

 Metrics 
Sakamakon ƙwarewar hasashen mai yiwuwa na iya amfani da ma'auni kamar Ranked Probabilistic Skill Score (RPSS) ko Ci gaba RPSS (CRPSS), da sauransu. Matsakaicin ƙwarewa irin su False Alarm Ratio (FAR), da Probability of Detection (POD), da Critical Success Index (CSI), da Equitable Threat Score (ETS) suma suna da dacewa ga wasu aikace-aikacen hasashen. Sau da yawa ana nuna ƙwarewa, amma ba kawai ba, a matsayin wakilcin dangi wanda ke kwatanta aikin wani tsinkaya na tsinkaya da na nassi, tsinkaya mai ma'ana - tsari da ake kira 'Skill Score'.

Ya kamata a yi ƙididdigar ƙwarewar hasashen da ƙididdigari a kan babban samfurin nau'ikan hasashen-bincike don zama mai ƙarfi. Misali na tsinkaya don tsinkaya guda ɗaya (misali, zafin jiki a wuri ɗaya, ko ƙimar hannun jari ɗaya) yawanci ya haɗa da tsinkaya da aka yi a lokuta daban-daban. Hakanan samfurin zai iya tara nau'ikan hasashen-bincike a fadin sararin samaniya, don hasashen da aka yi a ranar guda, kamar yadda yake a cikin hasashen yanayin da aka tabbatar a wurare da yawa.

 Misali ƙididdigar ƙwarewa 
Misali na ƙididdigar ƙwarewa wanda ke amfani da ma'aunin kuskuren 'Ma'auni na Squared Error (MSE) ' kuma an ba da ƙwarewar ƙwarewa a cikin teburin da ke ƙasa. A wannan yanayin, cikakkiyar tsinkaya tana haifar da ƙwarewar tsinkaya ta sifili, da ƙimar ƙwarewar 1.0. Hasashen da ke da ƙwarewa daidai da hasashen tunani zai sami ƙwarewar ƙwarewa na 0.0, kuma hasashen da ba shi da ƙwarewar da aka yi amfani da shi fiye da hasashen bincike zai sami ƙimar ƙwarewar mara iyaka.[1][2]
Kwarewar ƙwarewa: Kuskuren murabba'i (MSE) Sakamakon ƙwarewar da aka haɗa (SS) 

 Ƙarin karantawa 
Za'a iya samun ma'aunin tsinkaye a cikin albarkatun da aka buga da na kan layi. Kyakkyawan farawa shine shafukan yanar gizo na Ofishin Kula da Yanayi na Australiya akan tabbatarwa a WWRP / WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research . 

Wani sanannen littafi da kuma bayanin da ke tattauna ƙwarewar hasashen shine Hanyoyin kididdiga a cikin Kimiyya ta Yanayi.

 Dubi kuma 

 Calibration (ƙididdiga) 
 Brier Skill Score (a cikin Brier score) 
 Hoton Taylor

 Manazarta