Halin yanayi na ɗan lokaci

Amsawar sauyin yanayi na ɗan lokaci ga yawan hayaki na carbon dioxide (TCRE) shine rabo na canjin zafin jiki na duniya a kowace ɗayan carbon dioxide (CO2) da aka fitar.

Kamar yadda CO 2 da aka fitar na iya zama a cikin sararin samaniya na dubban shekaru, wannan amsa shine adadin da yawan zafin jiki na duniya ya canza ta kowace adadin adadin carbon dioxide da ayyukan ɗan adam ke fitarwa zuwa cikin yanayi.   Matthews, H.D.; Zickfeld, K.; Knutti, R.; Allen, M.R. (January 12, 2018). "Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets". Environmental Research Letters. 13: 010201. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c9. Masana kimiyya sun yarda cewa zafin jiki na duniya yana canzawa a layi daya ba tare da la'akari da hanyar da aka bi don kaiwa kololuwar tarawar CO 2 ba.    Wannan yana nufin cewa don takamaiman adadin tarin CO 2 watsi, ana iya sa ran canjin yanayin zafi da aka sani a duniya (a cikin kewayon rashin tabbas), wanda ke nuna cewa riƙe canjin yanayin zafin duniya zuwa ƙasa da ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun iskar CO 2, yana haifar da ra'ayin kasafin kuɗin carbon .   

 Ƙididdiga 

 Tsarin 
Za'a iya lissafin TCRE bisa ga tsari don rabo na canjin zafin jiki zuwa yawan hayakin carbon (wanda aka auna a matsayin CO2), wanda shine carbon da ya rage a cikin yanayi bayan lissafin tushen da suka dace da sinks.Matthews, H.D.; Gillett, N.P.; Stott, P.A; Zickfeld, K (June 11, 2009). "The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions". Nature. 459 (7248): 829–832. doi:10.1038/nature08047. PMID 19516338. S2CID 4423773. A matsayin ma'auni na canjin carbon na yanayi, TCRE yana daidaita yadda yanayin yake da hankali ga carbon dioxide don tsara darajar da ke canza yanayin zafi (° C) ga kowane tiriliyan ton na carbon da aka fitar (Tt C).Allen, M.R.; Frame, D.J.; Huntingford, C.; Lowe, J.A.; Meinshausen, M.; Meinshausen, N. (April 30, 2009). "Warming caused by cumulative emissions towards the trillionth tonne". Nature. 458 (7242): 1163–1166. doi:10.1038/nature08019. PMID 19407800. S2CID 7459207. Ana wakiltar wannan ta hanyar tsari mai zuwa:

Matthews, H.D.; Gillett, N.P.; Stott, P.A; Zickfeld, K (June 11, 2009). "The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions". Nature. 459 (7248): 829–832. doi:10.1038/nature08047. PMID 19516338. S2CID 4423773.

 Misali 
An tsara TCRE ta amfani da nau'ikan yanayi waɗanda ke yin kwaikwayon iskar carbon ta hanyar haɓaka iskar CO 2 da 1% a kowace shekara daga matakan masana'antu na farko har sai an ninka maida hankali na CO 2 a cikin yanayi sau biyu (2 x CO 2 ) ko sau huɗu (4 x CO 2 ).     Tun da waɗannan gwaje-gwajen duk sun fara ne daga farkon yanayin yanayi na CO 2 (a kusa da 285 ppm  ), sau biyu da sau hudu suna faruwa a 70 da 140 shekaru bi da bi. Ma'auni daban-daban na ƙirar ƙira na TCRE sun haɗa da: riƙe CO 2 watsi akai-akai bayan ninka sau huɗu;  yin ƙirar ƙira mara kyau bayan ninki biyu ko sau huɗu;  dakatar da fitar da hayaki bayan sau biyu da ci gaba da samfurin har zuwa shekaru 10,000;  ko gudanar da tsawaita yanayin yanayin RCP da kimanta canjin zafin jiki ta kowace yawan hayaki a babban adadin CO 2 . 

 Amsar Yankin 
Kodayake matsakaicin zafin jiki na duniya ga hayaki mai yawa kusan layi ne, wannan martani ba daidai ba ne a duk faɗin duniya. Matthews, H.D.; Zickfeld, K.; Knutti, R.; Allen, M.R. (January 12, 2018). "Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets". Environmental Research Letters. 13: 010201. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c9. Leduc, M.; Matthews, H.D.; de Elia, R. (January 4, 2016). "Regional estimates of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions". Nature Climate Change. 6 (5): 474–478. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2913. Lissafi na Leduc et al., (2016) na tsarin yanayin ƙasa na amsawar zafin jiki (TCRE na yanki, ko RTCRE) ya nuna dabi'u na canjin zafin jiki a kan yankunan teku na equatorial da na wurare masu zafi da kuma manyan dabi'u masu canjin zabin jiki sama da 4 ° C / Tt C a cikin Arctic. Hakazalika, suna nuna bambancin amsawar zafin jiki tsakanin ƙasa da teku, wanda galibi saboda teku tana shan yawancin zafi.

 Amsawar ruwan sama na yanki 
Ba kamar amsawar zafin jiki na yanki ba, canjin ruwan sama na yanki zuwa yawan hayaki yana da kyau ko mara kyau, dangane da wurin.Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon (2017). "Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO 2 emissions". Environmental Research Letters. 12 (7): 075002. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa6eb0. ISSN 1748-9326. Partanen et al., (2017) sun nuna amsa mai kyau a cikin Arctic tare da amsa mara kyau (ma'ana rage hazo) a wasu sassan Kudancin Afirka, Ostiraliya, Arewa da Kudancin Amurka.

 Kudin carbon 
TCRE da aka lura da lissafin layi yana haifar da ra'ayin kasafin kudi na carbon Kasafin kudin carbon shine "mafi girman adadin adadin iskar carbon dioxide (CO2) na duniya wanda zai haifar da iyakance dumamar duniya zuwa matakin da aka ba shi tare da yiwuwar da aka ba, la'akari da tasirin wasu masu tilasta yanayin mutum".

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