Bayanan Kaya

Asalin Kaya shine asalin lissafi wanda ke nuna cewa za'a iya bayyana jimlar matakin fitarwa na iskar gas mai guba a matsayin samfurin abubuwa huɗu: yawan mutane, GDP ga kowane mutum, ƙarfin makamashi (kowace ɗayan GDP), da ƙarfin carbon (kayan fitarwa a kowace ɗayan makamashi da aka cinye). Yana da wani nau'i na musamman na I = daidaitattun PAT  wanda ke da alaƙa da abubuwan da ke ƙayyade matakin Tasirin ɗan adam akan yanayi. Kodayake sharuɗɗan da ke cikin asalin Kaya za su soke a ka'idar, yana da amfani a aikace don lissafin hayaki dangane da bayanan da ke samuwa, wato yawan jama'a, GDP ga kowane mutum, makamashi ga kowane ɗayan GDP, da hayaki ga kowane ɗayan makamashi. Bugu da ƙari, yana nuna abubuwan da ke cikin tattalin arzikin duniya wanda mutum zai iya aiki don rage hayaki, musamman ƙarfin makamashi a kowace raka'a GDP da hayaki a kowace raka-kamashi.

 Bayani na gaba ɗaya 
Masanin tattalin arzikin makamashi na Japan Yoichi Kaya ne ya kirkiro asalin Kaya. Wannan shi ne batun littafinsa Environment, Energy, and Economy: strategies for sustainability co-authored tare da Keiichi Yokobori a matsayin fitarwa na Taron kan Muhalli na Duniya, Makamashi, da Ci gaban Tattalin Arziki (1993: Tokyo, Japan).   Bambancin Paul R. Ehrlich & John Holdren's I = ATP formula wanda ke bayyana abubuwan da ke haifar da tasirin muhalli.

Ana bayyana asalin Kaya a cikin wannan hanyar:



Inda:

 F shine iskar CO  na duniya daga tushen ɗan adam
 P shine yawan jama'ar duniya
 G shine GDP na duniya
 E shine amfani da makamashi na duniya 

Kuma:

 G / P shine GDP na kowane mutum
 E / G shine ƙarfin makamashi na GDP
 F / E shine Ƙarfin fitarwa na makamashi

 Halin Yanzu da Tsinkaye na gaba 
1) P: Yawan jama'a na duniya 

Ci gaban yawan jama'a na duniya ya kasance abin da ke faruwa a zamanin zamani, wanda aka tsara ta hanyar sauye-sauyen yawan jama'aa, ci gaban tattalin arziki, da sauye-shiryen zamantakewa. Dangane da Majalisar Dinkin Duniya Duniya Duniya Population Prospects 2024, yawan jama'ar duniya ya wuce biliyan 8 a 2022, wanda ya haifar da yawan haihuwa a yankuna masu tasowa da ingantaccen kiwon lafiya da yanayin rayuwa.

A cikin karni na 20, yawan mutanen duniya ya karu da yawa saboda raguwar yawan mace-mace da ci gaban kiwon lafiya. Koyaya, a cikin 'yan shekarun da suka gabata, yawan ci gaban ya ragu yayin da yawan haihuwa ya ragu a sassa da yawa na duniya. Ayyukan Majalisar Dinkin Duniya cewa yawan jama'ar duniya za su ci gaba da ƙaruwa, sun kai biliyan 9 nan da shekara ta 2040, ana sa ran karuwar yawan jama'a za ta kai kusan biliyan 10.3 a tsakiyar shekarun 2080, bayan haka za ta ragu a hankali zuwa kusan biliyan 10,2 nan da shekara, kuma birni yana hanzarta, tare da sama da 70% na mutanen da ake sa ran zama a cikin birane nan da shekara de 2050, wanda ke haifar da amfani da makamashi mafi girma, musamman a yankuna masu tasowa kamar Indiya, China, da Indonesia.

Tsarin ci gaban jama'a ya bambanta sosai a fadin yankuna.United Nations; Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2024). "World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results". World Population Prospects 2024. Ana sa ran Afirka ta kudu da Sahara za ta kai fiye da rabin karuwar yawan jama'a a duniya har zuwa 2054, saboda ci gaba da yawan haihuwa da ci gaba a kiwon lafiya. Na gaba, Asiya, musamman Indiya da China, za su sami ci gaba mai jinkiri, tare da China ta riga ta kai kololuwa a cikin yawan jama'a a 2024 kuma ana sa ran raguwa a cikin shekarun da ke zuwa. A ƙarshe, Turai da Arewacin Amurka suna fuskantar raguwar yawan jama'a ko raguwa, tare da tsufa da yawan haihuwa a ƙasa da matakan maye gurbin.

2) G/P: GDP PER CAPITA 

GDP na duniya ga kowane mutum ya kasance a kan hanyar da ta dace, yana nuna fadada tattalin arziki a duk ƙasashe masu tasowa da masu tasowa. Koyaya, ba a rarraba wannan ci gaban daidai ba. Kasashe masu samun kudin shiga sun sami raguwar ci gaban mutum, yayin da kasashe masu samun kudaden shiga da masu tasowa ke ci gaba da rufe gibin. Dangane da tsinkaya, GDP na duniya na kowane mutum ana sa ran ya kai kusan $ 24,499 nan da shekara ta 2050, karuwa mai yawa daga $ 16,176 a cikin 2019 . 

Duk da wannan ci gaban gaba ɗaya, bambance-bambance masu yawa za su ci gaba a duk yankuna. Kasashe masu samun kudin shiga, wadanda ke da matsakaicin GDP na mutum na $ 48,913 a cikin 2019, ana sa ran ganin wannan adadi ya karu zuwa $ 62,269 nan da shekara ta 2050. A halin yanzu, ana sa ran ƙasashe masu matsakaicin matsakaicin kuɗin shiga za su sami karuwar dangi, tare da GDP na kowane mutum yana hawa daga $ 7,012 a cikin 2019 zuwa $ 14,743 ta hanyar 2050 . Kenny, Charles; Gehan, Zack (2023). "Scenarios for future global growth to 2050". Center for Global Development. 634.

Ana sa ran tattalin arzikin da ke tasowa kamar China da Indiya za su taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen tsara yanayin tattalin arziki na gaba. GDP na kowane mutum na kasar Sin, wanda ya tsaya a $ 13,988 a cikin 2019, an yi hasashen zai karu zuwa $ 32,266 nan da 2050, kodayake a matsakaiciyar saurin idan aka kwatanta da shekarun da suka gabata. Hakazalika, GDP na Indiya, yayin da yake ƙasa da na China, ana sa ran zai tashi a hankali, ya kai kusan $ 15,431 nan da shekara ta 2050.

A ƙarshen ƙarancin bakan, ƙasashe masu ƙarancin kuɗi suna ci gaba da fuskantar manyan ƙalubalen ci gaba. GDP din su na kowane mutum ana sa ran zai karu daga $ 1,940 a cikin 2019 zuwa $ 4,800 nan da 2050, yana nuna karuwar kashi mai karfi amma har yanzu yana barin su da nisa a bayan kasashe masu arziki. Afirka, musamman, za ta ga ci gaban tattalin arziki mara daidaituwa, tare da hasashen GDP na kowane mutum daga $ 5,347 zuwa $ 13,306 dangane da yanayin tattalin arziki.

Abubuwa da yawa za su tsara yanayin GDP na kowane mutum a cikin shekarun da suka gabata.Kenny, Charles; Gehan, Zack (2023). "Scenarios for future global growth to 2050". Center for Global Development. 634. Ana sa ran ci gaban fasaha, ingantaccen makamashi, da ci gaban ababen more rayuwa don tallafawa fadada tattalin arziki yayin rage amfani da albarkatu. Koyaya, rashin tabbas na siyasa, sauye-sauyen yawan jama'a, da canjin yanayi za su gabatar da haɗarin da zai iya jinkirta ci gaban dogon lokaci. Tattalin arzikin da ya ci gaba zai iya fuskantar kalubale da suka shafi tsufa da raguwar yawan aiki, yayin da matasa a cikin kasuwannin da ke tasowa na iya amfana daga rabon jama'a, wanda ke haifar da ci gaba mafi girma a waɗannan yankuna.

Duk da yake GDP na duniya ga kowane mutum ana sa ran ci gaba da ƙaruwa, saurin haɗuwa da tattalin arziki tsakanin kasashe masu tasowa da masu tasowa zai dogara da yanke shawara na manufofi, saka hannun jari a cikin babban birnin ɗan adam, da kuma ikon gwamnatoci don kewaya ƙalubalen tattalin arziki na tsarin. Kodayake ana sa ran gibin samun kudin shiga tsakanin kasashe zai ragu, rashin daidaito na tattalin arziki zai kasance babban batun a tattaunawar tattalin arziki ta duniya a cikin karni na 21.

3) E/G: Ƙarfin makamashi na GDP 

Ƙarfin makamashi na GDP, wanda aka bayyana a matsayin adadin makamashi da aka cinye a kowane ɗayan fitar da tattalin arziki, yana aiki a matsayin maɓallin ma'auni don kimanta ingancin makamashi le kiyayewa. A cikin shekarun da suka gabata, ƙarfin makamashi na duniya ya ragu gabaɗaya, yana nuna ci gaba a cikin ingantaccen makamashi, ci gaban fasaha, da sauye-sauyen tsari a cikin tattalin arziki. Koyaya, yawan raguwa ya bambanta sosai a tsakanin yankuna da masana'antu.

A halin yanzu, tattalin arzikin da suka ci gaba, kamar Japan da kasashen Turai, suna nuna ƙarancin ƙarfin makamashi saboda fasahar adana makamashi, manufofi masu tsauri, da kuma sauyawa zuwa masana'antun da ba su da makamashi. Sabanin haka, kasashe masu tasowa, gami da China da Indiya, har yanzu suna da ƙarfin makamashi mai ƙarfi, galibi saboda tsarin masana'antu da dogaro da bangarorin da ke da makamashi. Lokacin da aka auna ta amfani da farashin musayar kasuwa (MER), ƙarfin makamashi na China ya ninka sau 6.2 fiye da na Japan, yayin da Indiya ta ninka sau 4.5. Koyaya, lokacin da aka daidaita don sayen ƙarfin ƙarfi (PPP), ƙarfin makamashi na China ya ragu zuwa sau 1.3 na Japan, kuma saukowar Indiya zuwa sau 0.7 na matakin Japan, yana kwatanta tasirin hanyoyin auna tattalin arziki akan kwatancen ƙarfin makamasha. 

Dubi gaba, ana sa ran ƙarfin makamashi na duniya zai ci gaba da raguwa, wanda ke haifar da sababbin fasahohi, ingantaccen ƙa'idodin ingancin makamashi, da sauyawa zuwa tattalin arzikin da ke da tushe. Ana sa ran tattalin arzikin da suka ci gaba za su ci gaba da raguwa saboda ci gaba a cikin fasahar adana makamashi da karuwar karɓar hanyoyin samar da makamashi mai sabuntawa. A halin yanzu, kasashe masu tasowa za su fuskanci raguwa a hankali a cikin ƙarfin makamashi yayin da suke inganta masana'antu da aiwatar da manufofin makamashi masu tsauri.Suehiro, Shigeru. "Energy intensity of GDP as an index of energy conservation". Institute of Energy Economics Japan Report.

4) F/E: Ƙarfin fitarwa na Makamashi 

Ƙarfin fitar da carbon na makamashi, wanda aka bayyana a matsayin adadin CO2 da aka fitar da kowane ɗayan makamashi da aka cinye, yana da mahimmanci wajen kimanta tasirin muhalli na samar da makamashi. A cikin shekarun da suka gabata, hayakin CO2 da ke da alaƙa da makamashi na duniya ya karu sosai, ya karu da kashi 87% daga tan biliyan 18.0 a 1978 zuwa tan biliyan 33.7 a 2018. Koyaya, ƙarfin carbon na samar da makamashi na duniya ya ragu da 13%, daga 66.3 kg CO2/GJ a 1978 zuwa 58.0 kg CO2/J a 2018. Wannan raguwa an danganta shi da karuwar amfani da makamashi mai sabuntawa da makamashin nukiliya a cikin makamashi na duniya.

Duk da wannan raguwar ƙarfin carbon, burbushin burbushin har yanzu suna mamaye bangaren makamashi na duniya. Ya zuwa 2018, kashi 85% na jimlar amfani da makamashi na farko har yanzu ana rufe shi da kwal, mai, da iskar gas, raguwa ne kawai da kashi 7% daga 1978. Ci gaba da man fetur a cikin makamashi na makamashi yana ci gaba da fitar da matakan hayaki na carbon.

Bambance-bambance na yanki a cikin ƙarfin carbon suma sananne ne. Tattalin arzikin da ya ci gaba, kamar na Turai da Arewacin Amurka, sun rage ƙarfin carbon da yawa saboda tsauraran manufofin yanayi, ci gaban fasaha, da kuma sauyawa zuwa hanyoyin samar da makamashi. Sabanin haka, kasashe masu tasowa kamar China da Indiya har yanzu suna dogaro da kwal da sauran hanyoyin samar da makamashi masu yawa, wanda ke haifar da ƙarfin carbon mafi girma a kowane ɗayan makamashi da aka samar.

Dubi gaba, ana sa ran ƙarfin carbon na makamashi zai ci gaba da raguwa, amma yawan raguwa zai dogara da yanke shawara na manufofi, ci gaban fasaha, da ƙarfin kasuwa. Dangane da tsinkaye uku na Majalisar Makamashi ta Duniya (Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony, da Hard Rock), rabon burbushin burbushin halittu a cikin jimlar amfani da makamashi na farko zai ragu zuwa tsakanin 50% da 70% nan da 2060. A lokaci guda, ana sa ran rabon sabuntawa zai tashi daga 14% a 2015 zuwa tsakanin 22% da 37% a 2060 .

A cikin yanayin Jazz na zamani, tsarin da ke motsawa a kasuwa yana haifar da saurin kirkire-kirkire na fasaha, tare da ci gaban makamashi mai sabuntawa wanda ke rage dogaro da man fetur. An gabatar da farashin carbon a hankali, wanda ke haifar da raguwa a matsakaici a cikin ƙarfin carbon. Labarin Unfinished Symphony ya yi la'akari da sauye-sauyen da gwamnati ke jagoranta, yana jaddada hadin gwiwar kasa da kasa, farashi mai tsananin carbon, da kuma karɓar fasahar carbon mai ƙarancin carbon, wanda ke haifar da raguwa mafi sauri a cikin ƙarfin carbon. Labarin Hard Rock yana nuna duniya mai raguwa tare da haɗin gwiwar yanayi, inda burbushin burbushin halittu suka kasance masu rinjaye, kuma raguwar ƙarfin carbon ya fi jinkiri saboda manufofin kariya da rashin ƙarfafawa ga fasahar tsabta.T. Kober, H.-W. Schiffer. "Global energy perspectives to 2060 – WEC's World Energy Scenarios 2019". Energy Strategy Reviews. 31 (100523). doi:10.1016/j.esr.2020.100523.

 Amfani a cikin rahotanni na IPCC 
Asalin Kaya yana taka muhimmiyar rawa a ci gaban abubuwan da ke faruwa a nan gaba a cikin Rahoton Musamman na IPCC akan Yanayin Emissions. abubuwan da suka faru sun tsara yanayin da aka ɗauka don ci gaban gaba na gaba na kowane ɗayan abubuwan da aka shigar guda huɗu. Ana samun tsinkaye na ci gaban jama'a da kansu daga binciken yawan jama'a; GDP na kowane mutum yana samuwa daga kididdigar tattalin arziki da tattalin arziki; Hakanan don ƙarfin makamashi da matakan fitarwa. Shirin fitar da carbon na iya fitar da sake zagayowar carbon da tsarin yanayi don hango hasashen CO2 na gaba da dumama duniya.Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Swart, Rob, eds. (2000). "Chapter 3: Scenario Driving Forces, 3.1. Introduction". IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.

 Manazarta 

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