Guguwar Eloise

Tropical Cyclone Eloise ita ce guguwa mafi karfi a wurare masu zafi da ta shafi kasar Mozambique tun lokacin Cyclone Kenneth a cikin 2019 kuma ta biyu daga cikin guguwa uku a jere don tasiri Mozambique a cikin 2020-21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season. Rashin lafiya na wurare masu zafi na bakwai, guguwa ta biyar da kuma guguwa na biyu na wurare masu wurare masu zafi, ana iya gano asalin Eloise zuwa rikici a tsakiyar yankin Kudu maso Yammacin Tekun Indiya wanda ya zama mummunan yanayi a ranar 16 ga Janairu, kuma ya karfafa cikin guguwa mai zafi a ranar 17 ga Janairu. Kashegari, guguwar ta shiga yanayi mafi kyau, kuma nan da nan ta kara karfi zuwa guguwa mai tsanani a ranar 18 ga Janairu. A ƙarshen ranar 19 ga Janairu, Eloise ya sauka a arewacin Madagascar a matsayin guguwa mai matsakaici, wanda ya kawo ruwan sama mai yawa da ambaliyar ruwa. Guguwar ta ratsa Madagascar kuma ta shiga Tashar Mozambique a farkon sa'o'i na 21 ga Janairu. Bayan ya koma kudu maso yammacin Mozambique Channel na ƙarin kwanaki 2, Eloise ya ƙarfafa cikin guguwa mai kama da Category 1, saboda ƙananan iska da Yanayin zafi na teku. Da farko a ranar 23 ga watan Janairu, Eloise ya kai kololuwa a matsayin guguwa mai kama da Guguwa ta wurare masu zafi a kan sikelin Saffir-Simpson yayin da cibiyar guguwar ta fara motsawa a bakin teku a Mozambique. Ba da daɗewa ba, Eloise ya sauka a arewacin Beira, Mozambique, kafin ya raunana cikin sauri. Daga baya, Eloise ya raunana cikin raguwa a kan ƙasa a ranar 25 ga Janairu, ya ɓace ba da daɗewa ba. 

Shirye-shiryen guguwar da ke ci gaba sun faru a Madagascar kafin Eloise ya fadi da kuma wasu ƙasashen Afirka da yawa. Ga Madagascar, an bayar da gargadi da faɗakarwa yayin da guguwar ta kusanci arewacin Madagascar. Ga Mozambique, an sanya manyan faɗakarwa ga sassan tsakiya na ƙasar. Masu ba da agaji sun shirya don amsawa bayan guguwar ta wuce. Har ila yau, tashar jiragen ruwa ta Beira ta rufe kusan awanni 40, kuma an ba da iyakantaccen kayan gaggawa ba tare da abinci ba. Iyalai da yawa sun sami mafaka a cikin alfarwa a cibiyoyin masauki, kuma sun karɓi kayan abinci, tsabta, da kariya ta COVID-19. Jami'ai a Zimbabwe sun yi gargadi game da kwarin da ambaliyar ruwa, wanda zai iya haifar da lalacewar ababen more rayuwa. Ana sa ran larduna da yawa na arewacin Afirka ta Kudu za su fuskanci ruwan sama mai tsanani, wanda ya haifar da gargadi mai tsanani a gare su. An sanya ƙungiyoyin kula da bala'i a cikin faɗakarwa kafin guguwar.

Babban ambaliyar ruwa ta faru a ko'ina cikin tsakiyar Mozambique, tare da yankuna da yawa da ke ambaliya saboda ci gaba da ruwan sama mai tsanani makonni kafin Eloise ta fadi. Fiye da mutane 100,000 ne suka rasa muhallinsu kuma madatsun ruwa suna cikin wani wuri. Infrastructure ya sami mummunar rauni. Kimanin mutane 100,000 ne aka kwashe su a ranar 23 ga watan Janairu, kodayake ana sa ran adadin zai karu zuwa 400,000. Ambaliyar ruwa da lalacewa ba su da tsorata. Gidajen da ba su da ƙarfi da aka kafa don guguwar sun lalace ko kuma sun lalace. Beira ya cika da ambaliyar ruwa, kuma tasirin ya kasance daidai da na Cyclone Idai, kodayake ba su da tsanani sosai. Gidajen gona ma sun lalace. An aika da ƙungiyoyi don tantance lalacewar da gyara shi. An tabbatar da mutuwar mutane 27, tare da daya a Madagascar, 11 a Mozambique, uku a Zimbabwe, 10 a Afirka ta Kudu, da biyu a Eswatini. Ƙarin mutane goma sha ɗaya a halin yanzu sun ɓace. Lalacewar yanzu daga guguwar an kiyasta dala miliyan 90 (2021 USD) a Kudancin Afirka. 

 Tarihin yanayi 
A ranar 14 ga watan Janairu, wani yanki na yanayin damuwa ya samo asali a tsakiyar Tekun Indiya ta Kudu zuwa gabas na wani tsarin kuma a hankali ya shirya yayin da yake motsawa zuwa yamma. A ranar 16 ga watan Janairu, tsarin ya shirya cikin mummunan yanayi. Tare da kasancewar ci gaba mai zurfi, tsarin ya karfafa cikin Moderate Tropical Storm Eloise a ranar 17 ga Janairu. Da farko, Eloise ya yi ƙoƙari ya kara ƙarfafawa daga kasancewar iska mai ƙarfi na gabas da iska mai bushe, wanda ya sa aikin tsawa na Eloise ya koma yamma. Duk da kasancewar wannan shear da iska mai bushewa ta tsakiya, Eloise ya ci gaba da karuwa, tare da kunshe da shi a cikin fasalin ido da fitarwa yana ƙara bayyanawa, yana nuna karuwar Eloise a cikin guguwa mai zafi a ranar 19 ga Janairu, yayin da yake tafiya zuwa yamma zuwa Madagascar.
Wannan yanayin karuwa bai daɗe ba, yayin da Eloise ya yi karamin juyawa zuwa arewa sannan ya sauka a Antalaha, Madagascar, yayin da yake raunana zuwa guguwa mai matsakaici, saboda hulɗar ƙasa tare da duwatsun Madagascar. Kashegari, Eloise ya raunana zuwa mummunan yanayi na wurare masu zafi saboda hulɗar ƙasa, tare da zurfin convection a kan tsakiya ya lalace duk da cewa ya ci gaba da yin wuta a kan arewacin semicircle.

A ranar 20 ga watan Janairu, Eloise ta fito cikin Tashar Mozambique, inda Eloise ta fara sannu a hankali sake karfafawa, tare da ruwa mai dumi, yanayin da ke da danshi, karamin shear, amma raunin matakin sama wanda ke taimakawa ga jinkirin karfafa guguwar. Koyaya, wasu haɗuwa na sama sun hana convection daga haɓaka da sauri, kodayake duk sauran dalilai sun kasance masu kyau. Ba da daɗewa ba, haɗuwa ta sama ta fara raguwa, ta ba da damar tsarin ya fara ƙarfafawa cikin sauri. A ranar 21 ga watan Janairu, fitowar Eloise ta zama mai ƙarfi, kodayake ƙarfinta yana da iyaka, saboda hulɗar ƙasa a arewacin guguwar, yana da iskõki mafi ƙarfi a kudu maso gabas kuma yana riƙe da iskõkin da suka raunana a wasu wurare. Duk da ci gaba da hulɗar ƙasa, Eloise ya ƙarfafa, tare da inganta fitowar igiya da siffofin banding da ke kunshe da ƙaramin ido.

A ranar 22 ga watan Janairu, Eloise ta inganta sosai a cikin tsari yayin da ta koma kudu maso yamma a fadin Mozambique Channel. Daga baya a wannan rana, Eloise ya karfafa cikin guguwa mai zafi mai kama da Category 1 a kan Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHWS), yayin da yake kusa da bakin tekun Mozambique, saboda yanayin da ya dace a yankin. Da farko a ranar 23 ga watan Janairu, Eloise ya kara karfafawa kuma ya kai kololuwa a matsayin guguwa mai zafi mai kama da Category 2, tare da iska mai ƙarfi na minti 10 na  km / h (95 , iska mai ƙarfi ta minti 1 na  km / h (105 , da kuma matsakaicin matsin lamba na tsakiya na  , yayin da guguwar ta fara motsawa zuwa gabar. Ba da daɗewa ba, Eloise ya sauka a arewacin Beira, Mozambique, a irin wannan ƙarfin. Bayan faɗuwa, Eloise ya lalace cikin sauri, tare da guguwar ta raunana cikin guguwa mai matsakaici a cikin awanni 12 kuma ido ya ɓace gaba ɗaya. Yayin da guguwar ta ci gaba da shiga cikin ƙasa, Eloise ta raunana cikin sauri, saboda hulɗa tare da ƙasa mai tsawo da iska mai bushe. Daga baya a wannan rana, Eloise ya raunana cikin mummunan yanayi yayin da yake ci gaba da shiga cikin ƙasa. A ranar 25 ga watan Janairu, Eloise ya lalace ya zama raguwa, kuma MFR ta ba da shawara ta ƙarshe game da tsarin, tare da guguwar ta ɓace ba da daɗewa ba.

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