Tsarin kimantawa na hadin gwiwa

Integrated assessment modeling (IAM) ko Integrated Modeling (IM)  kalma ce da aka yi amfani da ita don wani nau'in ƙirar kimiyya wanda ke ƙoƙarin haɗa manyan fasalulluka na al'umma da tattalin arziki tare da biosphere da yanayi a cikin tsarin ƙira ɗaya. Manufar ƙididdigar ƙididdiga ita ce ta karɓi ƙididdigatattun manufofi, yawanci a cikin mahallin canjin yanayi  kodayake kuma a wasu fannoni na ci gaban ɗan adam da zamantakewa.  Duk da yake daki-daki da girman hadin gwiwar horo ya bambanta sosai ga kowane samfurin, duk tsarin kimantawa na yanayi ya haɗa da matakai na tattalin arziki da kuma matakai da ke samar da iskar gas. Sauran samfuran kimantawa sun haɗa da wasu fannoni na ci gaban ɗan adam kamar ilimi, kiwon lafiya, ababen more rayuwa, da kuma shugabanci. 

Wadannan samfurori an haɗa su ne saboda sun mamaye fannoni masu yawa na ilimi, gami da tattalin arziki da kimiyyar yanayi da kuma ƙarin samfuran da suka fi dacewa da Tsarin makamashi, canjin amfani da ƙasa, noma, ababen more rayuwa, rikici, shugabanci, fasaha, ilimi, da kiwon lafiya. Kalmar kimantawa ta fito ne daga amfani da waɗannan samfuran don samar da bayanai don amsa tambayoyin manufofi. Don ƙididdige waɗannan nazarin kimantawa, ana amfani da samfuran lambobi. Tsarin kimantawa na hadin gwiwa ba ya samar da tsinkaya don nan gaba amma yana kimanta abin da yanayin zai yiwu

Akwai nau'ikan nau'ikan ƙididdigar ƙididdiga daban-daban. Ɗaya daga cikin rarrabuwa ya bambanta tsakanin samfuran farko waɗanda ke ƙididdige hanyoyin ci gaba na gaba ko abubuwan da suka faru kuma suna ba da cikakken bayani, bayanan bangarori game da matakai masu rikitarwa da aka tsara. A nan ana kiransu samfuran tsari. Abu na biyu, akwai samfuran da ke tara farashin canjin yanayi da Rage canjin yanayi don samun kimantawa na jimlar farashin canjin sauyin yanayi. Rarrabawar ta biyu tana nuna bambanci tsakanin samfuran da ke nuna alamun da aka tabbatar (ta hanyar lissafin tattalin arziki), ko samfuran da suka ƙayyade (duniya) mafita mafi kyau na tattalin arziki daga hangen nesa na mai tsara zamantakewa, yana ɗaukar (ƙananan) daidaito na tattalin arziki.

 Tsarin tsari 
Kwamitin Intergovernmental kan Canjin Yanayi (IPCC) ya dogara da tsarin kimantawa na tsarin (PB-IAM ) don ƙididdige yanayin ragewa.  An yi amfani da su don bincika hanyoyi daban-daban don zama a cikin manufofin manufofin yanayi kamar 1.5 ° C da aka amince da shi a Yarjejeniyar Paris. Bugu da ƙari, waɗannan samfuran sun goyi bayan bincike ciki har da kimanta manufofin makamashi  da kuma kwaikwayon hanyoyin zamantakewar tattalin arziki.   Shahararrun tsarin ƙira sun haɗa da IMAGE,  MESSAGEix,  AIM / GCE,  GCAM,  REMIND-MAGPIE,  da WITCH-GLOBIOM. Duk da yake waɗannan abubuwan suna da alaƙa da manufofi, ya kamata a yi fassarar abubuwan da suka faru da hankali. 

Misalai marasa daidaituwa sun haɗa da  waɗanda suka dogara da daidaitattun tattalin arziki da tattalin arzikin juyin halitta (kamar E3ME),  da samfuran wakili (kamar DSK-model).  Wadannan samfuran yawanci ba sa ɗaukar wakilai masu ma'ana da wakilci, ko daidaitawar kasuwa a cikin dogon lokaci.

 Ƙara ƙididdigar ƙididdiga 
Misalai na kimantawa masu amfani sune manyan kayan aiki don lissafin farashin zamantakewa na carbon, ko kuma farashin zamantakewa mai iyaka na fitar da tan daya na carbon (a matsayin carbon dioxide) cikin yanayi a kowane lokaci. Misali, DICE,  PAGE,  da FUND  model an yi amfani da su ta hanyar US Interagency Working Group don lissafin farashin zamantakewar carbon kuma an yi amfani dashi don nazarin tasirin tsari.

Ana aiwatar da wannan nau'in samfurin don gano jimlar farashin tasirin yanayi, wanda galibi ana ɗaukarsa mummunan waje ba tare da kasuwannin al'ada ba. Don gyara irin wannan gazawar kasuwa, alal misali ta hanyar amfani da harajin carbon, ana buƙatar farashin hayaki. Koyaya, ƙididdigar farashin zamantakewar carbon ba su da tabbas sosai  kuma za su kasance haka don makomar gaba.  An yi jayayya cewa "bincike na IAM game da Manufofin yanayi ya haifar da fahimtar ilimi da daidaito wanda ba daidai ba ne, kuma zai iya yaudarar masu tsara manufofi suyi tunanin cewa hasashen da samfuran suka samar suna da wani nau'in halattaccen kimiyya". Duk da haka, an yi jayayya cewa ƙoƙarin lissafin farashin zamantakewar carbon yana da amfani don samun fahimta game da tasirin wasu matakai akan tasirin yanayi, da kuma fahimtar ɗayan mahimman hadin gwiwar kasa da kasa a cikin shugabancin yarjejeniyar yanayi.

Ba a yi amfani da samfuran kimantawa na hadin gwiwa kawai don tantance yanayin muhalli ko wuraren da suka shafi canjin yanayi ba. An kuma yi amfani da su don nazarin alamu na rikice-rikice, Manufofin Ci Gaban Ci Gaban,  abubuwan da ke faruwa a duk faɗin yankin a Afirka,  da kuma tsaro na abinci.

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