Shirin Kimiyya na Canjin Yanayi

Shirin Kimiyya na Canjin yanayi (CCSP) shine shirin da ke da alhakin daidaitawa da haɗa bincike kan dumamar yanayi ta hukumomin gwamnatin Amurka daga Fabrairu 2002 zuwa Yuni 2009. Zuwa ƙarshen wannan lokacin, CCSP ta ba da rahotanni guda 21 na kimanta yanayi waɗanda suka magance abubuwan lura da yanayi, canje-canje a cikin yanayi, canjin yanayi da ake tsammani, tasirin da daidaitawa, da batutuwan kula da haɗari. Ba da daɗewa ba bayan Shugaba Obama ya hau mulki, an canza sunan shirin zuwa Shirin Binciken Canjin Duniya na Amurka (USGCRP) wanda kuma shine sunan shirin kafin 2002. Duk da haka, Gwamnatin Obama gabaɗaya ta rungumi samfuran CCSP a matsayin kimiyya mai kyau wanda ke ba da tushe ga manufofin yanayi. Saboda an bayar da waɗannan rahotanni galibi bayan Rahoton Bincike na huɗu na Kwamitin Intergovernmental kan Canjin Yanayi (IPCC), kuma a wasu lokuta an mayar da hankali musamman ga Amurka, ana kallon su a cikin Amurka kamar suna da muhimmancin da amincin kimiyya wanda ya dace da kimantawar IPCC na 'yan shekarun farko na Gwamnatin Obama.

 Kayayyakin 
Abubuwan da aka samo daga CCSP sune shirin dabarun ta da 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAP), biyar daga cikinsu an sake su a ranar 16 ga Janairu, 2009, ranar kasuwanci ta ƙarshe ta Gwamnatin Bush.  Shirin dabarun CCSP na 2003  ya bayyana manufofi biyar:

 Bayar da ilimin yanayin duniya da na yanzu, gami da bambancin yanayi na halitta, da inganta fahimtar abubuwan da ke haifar da canje-canjen da aka lura (duba Bincike da abubuwan da ke tattare da canjin yanayi),
 Inganta fahimtar dakarun da ke kawo Canje-canje a cikin yanayi duniya da tsarin da suka danganci (duba Canje-canje a yanayin) 
 Rage rashin tabbas a cikin tsinkaye game da yadda yanayin duniya da tsarin muhalli zasu iya canzawa a nan gaba (duba Tsinkaya na yanayi) 
 Fahimtar hankali da daidaitawa na tsarin halitta daban-daban da sarrafawa ga yanayi da canje-canje na duniya da ke tattare da shi (duba Tasiri da daidaitawa) 
 Bincika amfani da kuma gano iyakokin ilimin juyin halitta don sarrafa haɗari da damar da suka shafi canjin yanayi da canji (duba Amfani da bayanai don sarrafa haɗari) 

Shirin ya kuma ba da shawarar 21 SAP, kowannensu an tsara shi don tallafawa ɗayan waɗannan manufofi biyar. An sabunta shirin a cikin shekara ta 2008.  Sashe masu zuwa suna tattauna SAP, an haɗa su bisa ga yankuna biyar.

 Bincike da abubuwan da ke haifar da canjin yanayi 
Binciken kimantawa guda uku na SAP game da canjin yanayi da kuma ikonmu na tabbatar da abubuwan da ke haifar da waɗannan canje-canje.

 Yanayin zafin jiki a cikin ƙananan yanayi (SAP 1.1) 
NOAA ta fitar da na farko na rahotanni 21 na CCSP Synthesis and Assessment a watan Mayu na shekara ta 2006, mai taken Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences.  Rahoton ya gano kuma ya gyara kurakurai a cikin ma'aunin zafin jiki na tauraron dan adam da sauran abubuwan lura da zafin jiki, wanda ya kara amincewar kimiyya a ƙarshen cewa ƙananan yanayi yana dumama a kan sikelin duniya: "Babu sauran bambance-bambance a cikin yawan karuwar zafin jiki a duniya idan aka kwatanta da matakan da suka fi girma a cikin yanayi, "in ji rahoton, "a iya bayyana alamu da aka lura da canji a cikin shekaru 50 da suka gabata ta hanyar hanyoyin halitta kadai". Rahoton ya kuma ce "duk bayanan yanayi na yanzu yanzu suna nuna matsakaicin dumama na duniya wanda yayi kama da dumama na farfajiyar. Duk da yake waɗannan bayanan sun dace da sakamakon daga samfuran yanayi a sikelin duniya, bambance-bambance a cikin wurare masu zafi sun kasance don warwarewa. See Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States."

 Arctic da sauran manyan yankuna (SAP 1.2) 
A ranar 16 ga watan Janairun shekara ta 2009 (ranar kasuwanci ta ƙarshe ta Gwamnatin Bush), USGS ta saki Canjin Yanayi da Canji na baya a cikin Arctic da kuma High Latitudes .  A cewar sanarwar manema labarai ta USGS, rahoton ya nuna cewa:For example, see Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act: Technical Support Document 2009. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Washington, DC (December)

 Kwanan nan Arctic yana dumama da sauri kamar yadda ya taɓa gargadi a duk tarihin yanayin Arctic da ya gabata.
 Rashin kankara na teku a lokacin bazara a cikin 'yan shekarun da suka gabata ba sabon abu ba ne idan aka kwatanta da 'yan dubban shekaru da suka gabata. Canje-canje a cikin yanayin duniya kadai zai kara yawan kankara na teku.
 Ci gaba da dumama akalla 2 zuwa 7 °C zai iya narke dukkan kankara na Greenland, wanda zai kara matakin teku da mita da yawa. 
 Abubuwan da suka gabata sun gaya mana cewa lokacin da aka ƙetare ƙofofi a cikin tsarin yanayi, canjin yanayi na iya zama babba kuma da sauri sosai. Babu wanda ya san ko ayyukan ɗan adam za su haifar da irin waɗannan abubuwan a cikin shekarun da suka gabata da ƙarni masu zuwa.

 Bayyana abubuwan da ke haifar da canjin yanayi da aka lura (SAP 1.3) 
NOAA ta fitar da Re-Analyses of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for attribution of causes of observed canji  a watan Disamba na shekara ta 2008. A cewar rahoton, daga 1951 zuwa 2006 matsakaicin zafin jiki na shekara-shekara na Arewacin Amurka ya karu da 1.6 ° Fahrenheit, tare da kusan dukkanin dumi tun daga 1970. A wannan lokacin, matsakaicin zafin jiki ya yi zafi kusan 3.6 ° F a kan Alaska, Yukon Territories, Alberta, da Saskatchewan, amma babu wani gagarumin zafi da ya faru a kudancin Amurka ko gabashin Kanada. Fiye da rabin dumama na Arewacin Amurka mai yiwuwa ne (fiye da kashi 66 cikin dari) ya haifar da aikin ɗan adam.

 Manazarta