Guguwar Ernest

Guguwar Tropical mai tsanani Ernest na ɗaya daga cikin guguwa biyu masu tsanani a cikin 2004-05 Kudancin Yammacin Tekun Indiya. Rashin jituwa na takwas na wurare masu zafi na kakar, Ernest ya samo asali ne daga wani yanki na tsawa a tsakiyar Tekun Indiya. Da farko ya koma kudu maso yamma, ya kara karfi a cikin Tropical Storm Ernest a ranar 20 ga Janairu yayin da yake motsawa cikin Mozambique Channel. Bayan ya buga Mayotte, guguwar ta yi sauri don isa iskar 165 km / h (105 mph 10 minti iska) daga yammacin gabar tekun Madagascar. Ernest ya raunana dan kadan kafin ya buge yankin kudu maso yammacin wannan ƙasar a ranar 23 ga Janairu, wanda ya haifar da ambaliyar ruwa da iska mai ƙarfi. Kashegari guguwar ta zama extratropical kafin ta ɓace a ranar 25 ga Janairu

A Mayotte, Ernest ya samar da iska mai ƙarfi na 98 km / h (61 mph). Guguwar ta jawo danshi daga Malawi, wanda ya haifar da yanayin bushewa na kwana tara. Bayan 'yan kwanaki bayan Ernest ya buge Madagascar, Guguwar Tropical Felapi ta shafi wannan yankin kuma ta haifar da ambaliyar ruwa. Sakamakon hadari ya kashe mutane 78 kuma ya bar sama da 32,000 marasa gida. Yaduwar lalacewar amfanin gona ya haifar da zanga-zangar abinci, kodayake Shirin Abinci na Duniya ya samar da shinkafa na gaggawa ga mazauna da abin ya shafa.   

 Tarihin yanayi 
Wani yanki na convection ya ci gaba a ranar 16 ga Janairu zuwa yammacin Diego Garcia,  kuma a wannan rana Météo-France (MF) ya rarraba tsarin a matsayin Tropical Disturbance 08 .  Tsarin ya ci gaba da tsawa a kan yaduwar da ke tasowa, wanda ke cikin wani yanki mai rauni zuwa matsakaiciyar iska. Ya ci gaba da fitarwa kuma a hankali ya shirya, wanda ya sa Cibiyar Gargadi ta Hadari (JTWC) ta ba da faɗakarwar fashewar guguwa ta wurare masu zafi a ranar 17 ga Janairu. A wannan rana, MF ta dakatar da ba da shawara bayan tsarin ya dakatar da ci gabanta na ɗan lokaci. Rikicin ya ci gaba da motsi zuwa yamma- kudu maso yamma, kuma a ranar 19 ga Janairu ya fara karuwa. A wannan rana, JTWC ta rarraba shi a matsayin Tropical Cyclone 12S zuwa arewacin gabar arewacin Madagascar. Bayan ci gaba da ci gaba, MF ta inganta tsarin zuwa Tropical Storm Ernest a ranar 20 ga Janairu.

Bayan ya sami matsayin guguwa mai zafi, Ernest ya shiga Tashar Mozambique kuma ya juya zuwa tudun maso yamma. Ya samo asali ne a bangarorin da suka bambanta da guguwar, kuma ido a hankali ya zama bayyananne.Gary Padgett (2005). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary January 2005". Retrieved 2012-08-13. Yayinda yake ƙarfafawa, Ernest ya koma Mayotte kuma ya wuce kudu maso gabashin Comoros. A ƙarshen ranar 20 ga Janairu, guguwar ta yi saurin karuwa a kan Ruwa mai dumi a cikin guguwa mai zafi - daidai da guguwar 120 km / h (75 mph). A wannan lokacin, Ernest ya juya zuwa kudu, tare da gefen yammacin tudu. A ranar 22 ga watan Janairu, MF ta inganta guguwar zuwa guguwa mai karfi tare da iskar sama ta 165 km / h (105 mph 10 minti iska) lokacin da yake kusa da gabar yammacin Madagascar. A kusan lokaci guda, JTWC ta kiyasta Ernest ya kai iskar sama ta 185 km / h (115 mph 1 minti ya ci gaba). 

Yayinda yake a mafi girman ƙarfi, Ernest ƙaramin guguwa ne tare da guguwa da ke da nisan kilomita 130 (80 mi) daga waje daga idon da aka bayyana sosai.Gary Padgett (2005). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary January 2005". Retrieved 2012-08-13. Bayan ci gaba da iska mai ƙarfi na kimanin awanni 12, guguwar ta fara raunana yayin da ta juya zuwa kudu maso gales. A ranar 23 ga watan Janairu, Ernest ya fadi a kudu maso yammacin Madagascar a Itampolo,  tare da iskõki da aka kiyasta a 130 km / h (80 mph). Guguwar ta hanzarta zuwa kudu maso gabas a fadin tsibirin kuma da sauri ta raunana cikin guguwa mai zafi. A ƙarshen ranar 23 ga watan Janairu, JTWC ta ba da shawara ta ƙarshe bayan Ernest ya fara canzawa zuwa guguwa mai zafi. Da sassafe washegari, MF ta ayyana Ernest extratropical, kuma ta ci gaba da bin diddigin har sai guguwar ta ɓace a ranar 25 ga Janairu a kudancin Tekun Indiya.

 Tasirin da sakamakonsa 
Guguwar ta fara aukuwa Mayotte, ta shafi tsibirin tare da guguwa mai karfi na kimanin sa'o'i shida. Iska mai ɗorewa ya kai 78 km / h (48 mph), kuma iska mai ƙarfi ya kai 98 km / h (61 mph). Gary Padgett (2005). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary January 2005". Retrieved 2012-08-13. Tasirin a tsibirin bai yi yawa ba. Guguwar Ernest ta kai tsaye ta shafi Malawi, wanda ke cikin ƙasa a kudu maso gabashin Afirka. Yaduwar guguwar ta cire danshi daga kasar kuma ta hana duk wani ruwan sama daga faruwa a kudancin kasar a cikin kwanaki tara.    

A kudancin Madagascar, guguwar ta haifar da iska mai ƙarfi da ruwan sama mai yawa. Mafi yawan ruwan sama ya kasance jimlar sa'o'i 24 na   in), kuma mafi girman iska ya kasance  km / h (110 , duka biyu an lura da su a Toliara. Yawancin masunta a yankin ba su san yadda guguwar ta ke gabatowa ba, kuma da yawa dag sun mutu a sakamakon haka. Kimanin kwanaki biyar bayan guguwar Ernest ta buge Madagascar, guguwar Tropical Felapi ta buge wannan yanki, ta haifar da ƙarin ambaliyar ruwa. Sakamakon Ernest da Felapi sun kashe mutane 39, sun ji rauni 104, kuma sun bar mutane 214 sun ɓace har zuwa ranar 25 ga Fabrairu, 2005.  Daga baya, an kammala adadin wadanda suka mutu a 78 a cikin Bayanan Bala'i na Duniya. Guguwar ta lalata gine-gine 5,792, kuma akwai mutane 32,191 da suka rasa gida. Ambaliyar ta lalata kimanin kadada 4,483 (11,078 kadada) na gonakin amfanin gona a kudancin Madagascar.       

Sassan kasar sun fuskanci karancin shinkafa saboda lalacewar amfanin gona daga Ernest, da kuma daga Cyclone Gafilo a shekarar da ta gabata. Wannan ya haifar da karuwar farashi, wanda ya haifar da zanga-zangar tituna.[1] A sakamakon haka, Shirin Abinci na Duniya ya samar da tan 45 na shinkafa ga mazauna da abin ya shafa, kodayake ambaliyar ruwa ta ci gaba ta katse aikin agaji. Gabaɗaya, lalacewar daga Ernest da Felapi sun kasance ƙasa da na Gafilo a cikin shekarar da ta gabata.[2] Cibiyar Gaggawa ta Kasa ta Madagascar ta tura ma'aikata don yin bincike da ceto da kuma samar da ruwa ga wadanda guguwar ta shafa

 Dubi kuma 

 Yanayi na shekara ta 2005
 Guguwa mai zafi a cikin 2005
 Cyclone Dikeledi (2025) - ya ɗauki irin wannan hanya

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