Ra'ayin canjin yanayi

Canjin yanayi shine matakai na halitta wanda ke tasiri ga yawan yanayin zafi na duniya zai karu don adadin iskar gas. Bayanan da suka dace suna kara yawan dumamar duniya yayin da mummunan ra'ayi ke rage shi. : Feedbacks yana tasiri duka adadin iskar gas a cikin yanayi da kuma adadin canjin zafin jiki da ke faruwa a cikin martani. Duk da yake hayaki shine tilasta wanda ke haifar da canjin yanayi, ra'ayoyin sun haɗu don sarrafa Yanayin yanayi ga wannan tilasta.:5 11 

Duk da yake jimlar ra'ayoyin ba ta da kyau, tana zama mara kyau yayin da hayakin gas ke ci gaba. Wannan yana nufin cewa dumama yana da jinkiri fiye da yadda zai kasance ba tare da ra'ayoyi ba, amma wannan dumama zai hanzarta idan hayaki ya ci gaba a matakan yanzu: 95-96 Net feedbacks za su kasance marasa kyau galibi saboda karuwar radiation na zafi yayin da duniya ke dumi, wanda shine tasirin da ya ninka sau da yawa fiye da kowane ra'ayi na musamman.: 96 Dangane da haka, canjin yanayi na mutum kadai ba zai iya haifar da tasirin greenhouse ba.

Za'a iya raba ra'ayoyi zuwa ra'ayoyin jiki da ra'ayoyyar halitta. Bayanan jiki sun haɗa da raguwar haskakawa (daga raguwar dusar ƙanƙara da rufe kankara) da karuwar tururin ruwa a cikin yanayi. Rashin ruwa ba kawai iskar gas ce mai karfi ba, har ma yana tasiri ga abubuwan da ke tattare da su a cikin rarraba girgije da yanayin zafi a cikin yanayi. Abubuwan da ke tattare da halittu galibi suna da alaƙa da canje-canje ga adadin da shuke-shuke ke tara  a matsayin wani ɓangare na sake zagayowar carbon: Tsarin carbon yana shan fiye da rabin hayaki na CO2 a kowace shekara a cikin shuke-shuke da teku: A cikin dogon lokaci za a rage kashi yayin da sinks na carbon suka zama saturated kuma mafi girman yanayin zafi yana haifar da sakamako kamar fari da gobarar daji. IPCC (2021). "Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. p. 40. ISBN 978-92-9169-158-6.: 20 

Ana kimanta ƙarfin ra'ayoyi da dangantaka ta hanyar tsarin yanayi na duniya, tare da kimantawarsu da aka daidaita akan bayanan lura a duk lokacin da ya yiwu.CO="true" id="mwdg" typeof="mw:Transclusion">CO&quot;},&quot;last3&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Coppola&quot;},&quot;first3&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Erika&quot;},&quot;last4&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Jones&quot;},&quot;first4&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Richard G.&quot;},&quot;last5&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Krinner&quot;},&quot;first5&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Gerhard&quot;},&quot;year&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;2021&quot;},&quot;title&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Technical Summary&quot;},&quot;url&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf&quot;},&quot;journal&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change&quot;},&quot;publisher&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, US&quot;},&quot;pages&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;35–144&quot;},&quot;doi&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;10.1017/9781009157896.009&quot;},&quot;archive-url&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;https://web.archive.org/web/20220721021347/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf&quot;},&quot;archive-date&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;21 July 2022&quot;}},&quot;i&quot;:0}}]}\" data-ve-no-generated-contents=\"true\" id=\"mwBK8\">&nbsp;</span><cite about=\"#mwt39\" class=\"citation report cs1\" id=\"CITEREFAriasBellouinCoppolaJones2021\" data-ve-ignore=\"true\">Arias, Paola A.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Coppola, Erika; Jones, Richard G.; Krinner, Gerhard (2021). <a class=\"external text\" href=\"https://web.archive.org/web/20220721021347/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf\" id=\"mwBLA\" rel=\"mw:ExtLink nofollow\">Technical Summary</a> <span class=\"cs1-format\" id=\"mwBLE\">(PDF)</span>. <i id=\"mwBLI\">Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i> (Report). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, US. pp.<span id=\"mwBLM\" typeof=\"mw:Entity\">&nbsp;</span><span class=\"nowrap\" id=\"mwBLQ\">35–</span>144. <a class=\"mw-redirect cx-link\" data-linkid=\"438\" href=\"./Doi_(identifier)\" id=\"mwBLU\" rel=\"mw:WikiLink\" title=\"Doi (identifier)\">doi</a>:<a class=\"external text\" href=\"https://doi.org/10.1017%2F9781009157896.009\" id=\"mwBLY\" rel=\"mw:ExtLink nofollow\">10.1017/9781009157896.009</a>. Archived from <a class=\"external text\" href=\"https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf\" id=\"mwBLc\" rel=\"mw:ExtLink nofollow\">the original</a> <span class=\"cs1-format\" id=\"mwBLg\">(PDF)</span> on 21 July 2022.</cite>"}}' id="cite_ref-IPCC_AR6_WG1_TS_4-3" rel="dc:references" typeof="mw:Extension/ref">[1] : Wasu ra'ayoyi da sauri suna tasiri ga yanayin yanayi, yayin da martani daga kankara ya fito a cikin ƙarni da yawa. : Feedbacks na iya haifar da bambance-bambance na yanki, kamar Ƙarfafawa na polar wanda ya haifar da feedbacks wanda ya haɗa da rage dusar ƙanƙara da rufe kankara. Duk da yake ana fahimtar alaƙar asali sosai, rashin tabbas na ra'ayoyi ya wanzu a wasu yankuna, musamman game da ra'ayoyin girgije. Rashin tabbas na sake zagayowar carbon yana motsawa ne ta hanyar manyan kudade inda CO2 ke shawo kan shuke-shuke kuma an sake shi lokacin da biomass ya ƙone ko ya lalace. Misali, narkewar permafrost yana samar da CO2 da hayakin methane a hanyoyin da suke da wuyar tsarawa. : Yanayin canjin yanayi suna amfani da samfuran don kimanta yadda Duniya za ta amsa ga hayakin gas a tsawon lokaci, gami da yadda abubuwan da za su canza yayin da duniya ke dumi.

 Ma'anar da ƙamus 
Amsar Planck ita ce ƙarin abubuwa masu zafi da ke fitarwa yayin da suke samun dumi. Ko amsar Planck ra'ayi ne na canjin yanayi ya dogara da mahallin. A cikin kimiyyar yanayi ana iya bi da martani na Planck a matsayin wani bangare na warming wanda ya bambanta da radiative feedbacks da carbon sake zagayowar feedbacks. Koyaya, an haɗa martani na Planck yayin lissafin Yanayin yanayi. : 95–96 

Ra'ayi wanda ke kara canjin farko ana kiransa kyakkyawan ra'ayi  yayin da ra'ayi wanda ya ragewa canjin farko ake kira ra'ayi mara kyau. Canjin yanayi yana cikin yanayin dumamar yanayi, don haka kyakkyawan ra'ayi yana inganta dumamar yanayi kuma mummunan ra'ayi ya rage shi. Sunayen ra'ayi mai kyau ko mara kyau ba ya nuna cewa ra'ayi yana da kyau ko maraƙi.

Canjin farko wanda ke haifar da ra'ayi na iya tilastawa daga waje, ko kuma yana iya tasowa ta hanyar canjin yanayi na ciki. :">: 2222  Tilasta waje yana nufin "wani wakili mai tilasta a waje da tsarin yanayi wanda ke haifar da canji a cikin tsarin yanayi" : wanda zai iya tura tsarin yanayi a cikin hanyar dumama ko sanyaya. Matsalar waje na iya haifar da mutum (alal misali, hayakin gas ko canjin amfani da ƙasa) ko na halitta (alal misali، fashewar dutsen wuta).  : 2229 

 Bayani na jiki 

 Amsar Planck (marasa kyau) 
Amsar Planck ita ce "mafi mahimmancin ra'ayi a cikin tsarin yanayi". : 19 Yayin da zafin jiki na jikin baƙar fata ke ƙaruwa, fitarwa da radiation na infrared yana ƙaruwa tare da iko na huɗu na cikakkiyar zafin jiki bisa ga Dokar Stefan-Boltzmann. Wannan yana ƙara adadin radiation mai fita zuwa sararin samaniya yayin da Duniya ke dumi.Yang, Zong-Liang. "Chapter 2: The global energy balance" (PDF). University of Texas. Retrieved 2010-02-15. Amsa ne mai karfi kuma wani lokacin ana kiransa "amsawar ba tare da ciyarwa ba" saboda yana da wani abu mai zurfi na tsarin thermodynamic lokacin da aka yi la'akari da shi kawai aikin zafin jiki. Kodayake Duniya tana da tasiri mai tasiri ƙasa da hadin kai, radiation na jikin baƙar fata yana fitowa a matsayin adadi mai rarraba yayin binciken rikice-rikice ga radiation na duniya.

Planck "feedback" ko Amsar Planck shine kwatankwacin amsawar radiative da aka samu daga nazarin abubuwan lura masu amfani ko Tsarin yanayi na duniya (GCMs). An kiyasta ƙarfin da ake tsammani daga ma'aunin Stefan-Boltzmann kamar -4σT3 = -3.8 W / m2/K (watts a kowace murabba'in mita a kowace digiri na dumama). Lissafi daga aikace-aikacen GCM wani lokacin ya samar da raguwar ƙarfi, kamar yadda ya haifar da manyan kaddarorin stratosphere da irin waɗannan kayan tarihi da aka gano daga baya kamar yadda ba su cikin irin waɗannan samfuran ba.    

Yawancin kaddarorin "mai launin toka" na Duniya waɗanda ke tasiri ga radiation mai fita yawanci ana zaton za su kewaye su da sauran abubuwan da ke cikin ra'ayoyin GCM, kuma a rarraba su daidai da wani tsari na tilasta-feedback na tsarin yanayi.See Appendices A and B for a more detailed review of this and similar formulations Da kyau ƙarfin amsawar Planck da aka samu daga GCMs, ma'auni na kai tsaye, da ƙididdigar jikin baƙar fata za su ci gaba da haɗuwa yayin da hanyoyin bincike ke ci gaba da balaga.Cronin, Timothy W.; Dutta, Ishir (17 July 2023). "How Well Do We Understand the Planck Feedback". Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 15 (7): 1–19. Bibcode:2023JAMES..1503729C. doi:10.1029/2023MS003729.

 Bayani na tururi na ruwa (mai kyau) 
A cewar Dangantakar Clausius-Clapeyron, matsin tururi ya fi girma a cikin yanayi mai dumi, don haka jimlar tururi na ruwa zai karu yayin da yanayi ya yi zafi. Wani lokaci ana kiransa takamaiman ra'ayi na zafi, : saboda yanayin zafi (RH) yana kasancewa kusan koyaushe a kan tekuna, amma yana raguwa a kan ƙasa.  Wannan yana faruwa ne saboda ƙasa tana fuskantar saurin dumama fiye da teku, kuma an lura da raguwar RH bayan shekara ta 2000. : 86 

Tunda tururin ruwa iskar gas ce, karuwar abun ciki na tururin ruwa yana sa yanayi ya kara dumi, wanda ke ba da damar yanayi ya riƙe ƙarin tururin ruwa. Don haka, an kafa madauki mai kyau, wanda ke ci gaba har sai mummunan ra'ayoyin ya kawo tsarin zuwa daidaituwa.2&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Storelvmo&quot;},&quot;first2&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;T.&quot;},&quot;last3&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Armour&quot;},&quot;first3&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;K.&quot;},&quot;last4&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Collins&quot;},&quot;first4&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;W.&quot;},&quot;last5&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Dufresne&quot;},&quot;first5&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;J.-L.&quot;},&quot;last6&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Frame&quot;},&quot;first6&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;D.&quot;},&quot;last7&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Lunt&quot;},&quot;first7&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;D.J.&quot;},&quot;last8&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Mauritsen&quot;},&quot;first8&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;T.&quot;},&quot;last9&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Watanabe&quot;},&quot;first9&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;M.&quot;},&quot;last10&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Wild&quot;},&quot;first10&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;M.&quot;},&quot;last11&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Zhang&quot;},&quot;first11&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;H.&quot;},&quot;date&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;2&quot;},&quot;editor-last&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Masson-Delmotte&quot;},&quot;editor-first&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;V.&quot;},&quot;editor2-last&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Zhai&quot;},&quot;editor2-first&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;P.&quot;},&quot;editor3-last&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Pirani&quot;},&quot;editor3-first&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;A.&quot;},&quot;editor4-last&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Connors&quot;},&quot;editor4-first&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;S. L.&quot;},&quot;editor5-last&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Péan&quot;},&quot;editor5-first&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;C.&quot;},&quot;editor6-last&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Berger&quot;},&quot;editor6-first&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;S.&quot;},&quot;editor7-last&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Caud&quot;},&quot;editor7-first&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;N.&quot;},&quot;editor8-last&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Chen&quot;},&quot;editor8-first&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Y.&quot;},&quot;editor9-last&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Goldfarb&quot;},&quot;editor9-first&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;L.&quot;},&quot;title&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Chapter 7: The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity&quot;},&quot;url&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter07.pdf&quot;},&quot;journal&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change&quot;},&quot;publisher&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, US&quot;},&quot;pages&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;923–1054&quot;},&quot;doi&quot;:{&quot;wt&quot;:&quot;10.1017/9781009157896.009&quot;}},&quot;i&quot;:0}}]}\" data-ve-no-generated-contents=\"true\" id=\"mwBPk\">&nbsp;</span><cite about=\"#mwt42\" class=\"citation report cs1\" id=\"CITEREFForsterStorelvmoArmourCollins2021\" data-ve-ignore=\"true\">Forster, P.; Storelvmo, T.; Armour, K.; Collins, W.; Dufresne, J.-L.; Frame, D.; Lunt, D.J.; Mauritsen, T.; Watanabe, M.; Wild, M.; Zhang, H. (2021). Masson-Delmotte, V.; Zhai, P.; Pirani, A.; Connors, S. L.; Péan, C.; Berger, S.; Caud, N.; Chen, Y.; Goldfarb, L. (eds.). <a class=\"external text\" href=\"https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter07.pdf\" id=\"mwBPo\" rel=\"mw:ExtLink nofollow\">Chapter 7: The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity</a> <span class=\"cs1-format\" id=\"mwBPs\">(PDF)</span>. <i id=\"mwBPw\">Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i> (Report). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, US. pp.<span id=\"mwBP0\" typeof=\"mw:Entity\">&nbsp;</span><span class=\"nowrap\" id=\"mwBP4\">923–</span>1054. <a class=\"mw-redirect cx-link\" data-linkid=\"442\" href=\"./Doi_(identifier)\" id=\"mwBP8\" rel=\"mw:WikiLink\" title=\"Doi (identifier)\">doi</a>:<a class=\"external text\" href=\"https://doi.org/10.1017%2F9781009157896.009\" id=\"mwBQA\" rel=\"mw:ExtLink nofollow\">10.1017/9781009157896.009</a>.</cite>"}}" id="cite_ref-IPCC_AR6_WG1_CH7_7-3" rel="dc:references" typeof="mw:Extension/ref">[./Climate_change_feedbacks#cite_note-IPCC_AR6_WG1_CH7-7 [1]] : An gano karuwar tururin ruwa na yanayi daga tauraron dan adam, kuma lissafi bisa ga waɗannan abubuwan lura ya sanya wannan ƙarfin ra'ayi a 1.85 ± 0.32 m2/K. Wannan yayi kama da ƙididdigar samfurin, wanda ke 1.77 ± 0.20 m2/K :">: 969  Ko dai darajar ta ninka sau biyu dumama wanda in ba haka ba zai faru daga CO2 yana ƙaruwa shi kaɗai.  Kamar yadda yake tare da sauran abubuwan da aka samu na zahiri, an riga an lissafa wannan a cikin tsinkayen dumama a ƙarƙashin Yanayin canjin yanayi.Scott Johnson (September 17, 2019). "2°C is not known to be a "point of no return", as Jonathan Franzen claims". Science Feedback. Climate Feedback. Retrieved September 16, 2024.

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