FOSS4G 2011 Denver Attendance Projections

=Attendance Projections=
My best "guesstimate" based on looking at each of the top 20 countries resulted in a three tiers:
* Low: 426
* Mid: 839
* High: 1431 (capped at 1200)
"Accurate" attendance projections are extremely important to the early success of a conference the size of FOSS4G. 
+ Past FOSS4G data	 	 	 	 	 	
Year 	Country 	Local	CAN	USA	Other	Total
2006 	Switzerland 	156 	37 	52 	320 	565
2007 	Canada 	253 	253	265	203 	721
2008 	South Africa	321 	17 	31 	178 	547
2009 	Australia 	218 	24 	28 	166 	436
2010 	Spain 	??? 	???	???	??? 	???
*Overall, FOSS4G is a highly "local" event with at least 57% of attendees from the host region and 25% of attendees from the host country.
==Brain Storming==
===Guesstimate===
The formula (below) doesn't seem to be working out. The identified variables have no correlation to the number of attendees. The best solution would be, on a country-by-country basis, try to guess how many would come.
This table gives some "best guesstimates" on a per-country basis with justification. Note that the host country attendance (including the US for 2007) has been changed to the average of the other years. 
Country 	Population	2006	2007	2008	2009	Average	Pessimist	Optimist	Guess	Notes
USA 	307212123 	52 	37 	31 	28 	37 	265 	800 	500 	265 attended '07 in Canada.
CANADA 	33487208 	37 	26 	17 	24 	26 	26 	250 	125 	253 attended '07
SOUTH AFRICA 	49052489 	2 	5 	3 	2 	3 	2 	10 	5 	Need to carry energy from '08
AUSTRALIA 	21262641 	4 	4 	2 	3 	3.25 	2 	10 	5 	Similar to SA, carry energy
ITALY 	58126212 	54 	21 	17 	12 	26 	12 	25 	18 	France, Italy & Germany are strong supporters. How can we increase attendance?
FRANCE 	64057792 	43 	18 	16 	9 	21.5 	10 	20 	15 	
JAPAN 	127078679 	8 	11 	7 	15 	10.25 	8 	25 	18 	Japan is same distance as Europe with large tech population.
GERMANY 	82329758 	50 	11 	11 	13 	21.25 	11 	20 	15 	
SOUTH KOREA 	48508972 	0 	11 	0 	17 	7 	10 	25 	20 	SK is like Japan only hungrier
UNITED KINGDOM	61113205 	20 	15 	9 	6 	12.5 	10 	25 	15 	Why is UK so under-represented?
SWITZERLAND 	7604467 	10.3	11 	17 	3 	10.3 	10 	20 	12 	
SPAIN 	40525002 	16 	12 	12 	4 	11 	12 	30 	12 	Should carry energy from 2010
NEW ZEALAND 	4213418 	0 	3 	1 	25 	7.25 	1 	15 	2 	Definite Kiwi interest. Need to bolster
NETHERLANDS 	16715999 	16 	12 	0 	8 	9 	8 	20 	10 	Why doesn't Dutch like SA?
NORWAY 	4660539 	8 	6 	10 	4 	7 	4 	15 	7 	
BELGIUM 	10414336 	10 	5 	10 	6 	7.75 	5 	10 	6 	
SWEDEN 	9059651 	3 	4 	9 	7 	5.75 	4 	12 	6 	
BRAZIL 	198739269 	5 	4 	5 	4 	4.5 	4 	30 	12 	Brazil is another hungry hot spot
AUSTRIA 	8210281 	4 	5 	5 	2 	4 	4 	6 	5 	
NAMIBIA 	2108665 	0 	2 	8 	0 	2.5 	0 	4 	2 	
INDONESIA 	240271522 	1 	3 	3 	3 	2.5 	1 	3 	2 	
ROMANIA 	22215421 	1 	2 	6 	1 	2.5 	1 	4 	2 	
CZECH REPUBLIC	10211904 	9 	4 	2 	1 	4 	2 	6 	4 	
PORTUGAL 	10707924 	3 	2 	2 	2 	2.25 	2 	3 	2 	
FINLAND 	5250275 	8 	3 	2 	0 	3.25 	2 	5 	3 	
POLAND 	38482919 	1 	2 	3 	0 	1.5 	1 	3 	2 	
CHINA 	1338612968	0 	3 	0 	2 	1.25 	0 	25 	10 	China is big on Geospatial
NEW CALEDONIA 	227436 	0 	0 	0 	4 	1 	0 	4 	2 	
TAIWAN 	22974347 	2 	1 	1 	1 	1.25 	1 	6 	2 	
MEXICO 	111211789 	2 	3 	0 	0 	1.25 	2 	30 	10 	Mexico is very close and hungry
Totals 	 	 	 	 	 	 	418 	1431 	839 	
===Survey===
An alternate method would be to use a short survey that is widely publicized. This could generate good numbers for the FOSS4G community but would miss the non-community members.
===Formula===
A = ((P * I) / (D)) * 1/E
====Where====
* A = number of attendees from a country
* P = population of a country
** Seems to be too many contradictions, e.g., Switzerland is consistently over-represented and Japan under-represented.
* I = Industrialization
** GDP of the country
** HDI may be a better measure... but...
*** Top 10 countries by average attendance (except South Africa) have high GDI
*** Top 20 adds Namibia and Brazil with "lower" HDI
*** 90% of attendees come from high-HDI nations, cannot account for variation
* D = Travel Cost Distance from country
** Proxy - air travel distance from largest city to destination (except hosts) using TravelMath
** Price of airfare in local currency?
** Effort in getting VISA?
* E = Some unknown general economic factor
** FOSS4G 2009 realized very low numbers due to the economic crisis
** DJIA?
Will this work for States within the USA?
Assumes consistency across countries
* Is there some factor for USA/CAN?
===Correlating Factors===
*Economic Crisis
====By Country====
*Population
*Industrialization
**GDP as proxy
*Distance
**Local vs. Distant
**What is "local"?
*Number of Code Contributors
**Which projects?
*Should most countries be "ignored"?
**"Top 10" countries provide 75% of attendees
**"Top 20" countries provide 90% of attendees
**"Top 30" countries provide 95% of attendees
*Calculate for the Top 10 and extrapolate as 75%
====By Region====
*Distance
*Industrialization
*Oddly, Europe
=Attendee Profiles=
There is no one profile that fits all attendees. This is the nature of FOSS. Most significantly, the "heart and soul" of FOSS are the contributors who often are people who are "financially challenged". Here are some common traits:
1. Technically sophisticated
 a. Event needs WiFi everywhere
 b. Power outlets are good - people will be using laptops in plenaries
2. Generally like caffeine and beer
==Profiles==
===Low-income Contributor===
This person may be a student, come from a developing nation, or just be under-employed. She will be paying out of pocket for the conference. She will not stay at the conference hotel and may even be interested in a hostel or "couch-surfing". She will use public transportation or borrow a bicycle (highlight the new Denver bike share program). Despite her low income, she will come armed with at least one laptop and a smart phone. She will use the conference WiFi and power outlets heavily.
 a. Low conference fee with extras being optional
 b. Very low cost accommodation options
 c. Heavy use of wifi and power
 d. More likely to lead a workshop than attend one.
===FOSS Professional===
This person may be a consultant applying FOSS for customers or work for a large company integrating FOSS into the company's systems. Consultants will be paying out of pocket (as consultants always do) and others will have their employer either pay for or reimburse costs. She may likely stay at the conference hotel to increase networking opportunities. If she doesn't stay at the conference hotel, she will stay at a nearby hotel. She will come to workshops with a laptop but may only carry a smart phone to presentations. She will rely on public transportation or cabs. Most US government employees fall in this category. Many of these people like to self-identify with the "Low-income Contributor" as there is a certain romance to being heavily involved in contributing to FOSS.
 a. Will pay for extras, especially if the conference fee is low.
 b. Likely stay at conference hotel if the rates are good
 c. Likely to attend many workshops
===Business Leader===
This person will be in upper management or an officer of a company. The company may be an established utility or a tech startup. Her time is more valuable than the cost of the conference. She will stay at the conference hotel but will likely only stay for a one or two days. She will rely on taxis rather than public transportation. May have a laptop but more likely will use a smart phone or a tablet with 3G rather than depending on WiFi.
 a. May appreciate an "everything" registration option.
 b. Will stay at the conference hotel
 c. May attend a workshop or two but won't want to choose until she is here.
===Colorado Front Ranger===
This person is from the local area and may fit one of the above profiles. Her company may give her one or two days off to attend workshops or key presentations but may not pay for registration. She will not stay in a hotel and will either drive or use public transportation each day to reach the event. She will have a laptop and a smart phone and will use WiFi and power. May attend one social event but not all.
 a. Would appreciate single-day registrations
 b. Will not stay at the conference hotel (or any hotel)
 c. Will likely attend many workshops - and may skip the rest of the conference.
==Percent Makeup==
Profile 	Percent	Low	Mid	High
Low-income Contributor	15% 	62 	126	180
FOSS Professional 	30% 	124	252	360
Business Leader 	5% 	31 	63 	90
Colorado Front Ranger 	50% 	213	420	600
Totals 	100% 	426	839	1200
=Venue=
One of the biggest decisions is what venue to hold the conference. Venues with larger capacities have a higher per-attendee cost. If we can come up with a reasonable range of number of attendees, we can make a better decision about the venue. The availability of a particular venue can also impact dates.
In Denver, there are several prospective venues:
*Colorado Convention Center
** Largest space: 5000 people
** Near light rail
*Denver Sheraton
** Largest space: 3000 people
** Near light rail
*Denver Tech Center Marriott
** Largest space: 1500 people
** Near light rail
*Denver Tech Center Hyatt Regency
** Largest space: 1350 people
** Near light rail
*Denver Rennaissance
** Largest space: 1200 people 
** Not near light rail
*Sheraton Denver West 
** Largest space: 750 people
** New light rail station won't be operational until 2013
*Inverness Hotel and Conference Center
** Largest space: 600 people
** Near light rail
=Sponsorship=
Sponsors (and exhibitors) like to know how many people they are reaching by investing in the conference.
Category:FOSS4G2011