CSDMS 2016 annual meeting poster MatthewBilskie

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<FONT style="FONT-SIZE:10pt" color="#ffffff">Presentation provided during SEN - CSDMS annual meeting 2016</font>
=Flood inundation modeling in a changing climate=
Matthew Bilskie, Louisiana State University Baton Rouge Louisiana, United States. matt.bilskie@gmail.comScott Hagen, Louisiana State University Baton Rouge Louisiana, United States. shagen@lsu.eduDavina Passeri, US Geological Survey St. Petersburg Florida, United States. dpasseri@usgs.govKarim Alizad, University of Central Florida Orlando Florida, United States. kalizad@knights.ucf.eduStephen Medeiros, University of Central Florida Orlando Florida, United States. stephen.medeiros@ucf.eduJennifer Irish, Virginia Tech Blacksburg Virginia, United States. jirish@vt.edu
Abstract:
Coastal regions around the world are susceptible to a variety of natural disasters that can cause devastating flooding. It is anticipated that the exposure of coastal cities to more frequent flooding will increase due to the effects of climate change, and in particular sea level rise (SLR). A novel framework was developed to generate a suite of physics-based storm surge models that include projections of coastal floodplain dynamics under climate change scenarios: shoreline erosion/accretion, dune morphology, salt marsh migration, and population dynamics [Bilskie et al., 2014; Passeri et al., 2014; Passeri et al., 2015].
First, the storm surge inundation model was extensively validated for present-day conditions with respect to astronomic tides and hindcasts of Hurricane Ivan (2004), Dennis (2005), Katrina (2005), and Isaac (2012). The model was then modified to characterize the potential future outlook of the landscape for four climate change scenarios for the year 2100 (B1, B2, A1B, and A2). Each climate change scenario was linked to a sea level rise of 0.2 m, 0.5 m, 1.2 m, and 2.0 m from Parris et al. [ 2012]. The adapted model was used to simulate hurricane storm surge conditions for each climate scenario using a diverse suite of tropical cyclones. The collection of results shows the intensification of inundation area, depth of flooding, and the vulnerability of the coast to potential future climate conditions. The methodology developed herein to assess coastal flooding under climate change can be performed across any low-gradient coastal region worldwide, and results provide awareness of areas vulnerable to extreme inundation in the future.
References
*Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri (2014), Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 927-934.
*Parris, A., et al. (2012), Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate AssessmentRep., 37 pp.
*Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, M. V. Bilskie, and S. C. Medeiros (2014), On the significance of incorporating shoreline changes for evaluating coastal hydrodynamics under sea level rise scenarios, Natural Hazards, 1599-1617.
*Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, M. V. Bilskie, K. Alizad, and D. Wang (2015), The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low gradient coastal landscapes: a review, Earth's Future, 3.
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