Central Asia s Vast Biofuel Opportunity

The recent discoveries of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have distorted key oil forecasts under intense U.S. pressure is, if real (and whistleblowers seldom step forward to advance their professions), a slow-burning thermonuclear surge on future global oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressing the IEA to underplay the rate of decrease from existing oil fields while overplaying the possibilities of finding brand-new reserves have the prospective to toss governments' long-term preparation into chaos.Whatever the truth, rising long term global demands appear certain to outstrip production in the next decade, especially given the high and increasing costs of establishing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's offshore Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in financial investments before their very first barrels of oil are produced.In such a circumstance, additives and alternatives such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and rising rates drive this innovation to the leading edge, one of the richest possible production locations has been absolutely overlooked by investors already - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the area is poised to become a major gamer in the production of biofuels if adequate foreign financial investment can be acquired. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is manufactured largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mainly distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is a native plant, Camelina sativa. Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have actually seen their economies boom due to the fact that of record-high energy rates, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as a rising producer of natural gas.Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and relatively little hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have mostly hindered their ability to cash in on increasing global energy needs up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain mostly dependent for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, but their increased need to generate winter season electricity has caused autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn significantly affecting the agriculture of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.What these three downstream nations do have however is a Soviet-era legacy of agricultural production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was largely directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has actually become a significant producer of wheat. Based upon my discussions with Central Asian government authorities, given the thirsty needs of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have terrific appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser degree Astana for those hardy financiers going to bank on the future, specifically as a plant native to the area has currently shown itself in trials.Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is drawing in increased clinical interest for its oleaginous qualities, with numerous European and American business already investigating how to produce it in industrial amounts for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines carried out a historical test flight utilizing camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the very first Asian carrier to experiment with flying on fuel originated from sustainable feedstocks throughout a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the conclusion of a 12-month examination of camelina's operational efficiency ability and prospective business practicality.As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to suggest it. It has a high oil content low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and immune to spring freezing, requires less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of particular interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's significant wheat exporter. Another benefit of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre planted with camelina can produce as much as 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A lot (1000 kg) of camelina will consist of 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can extract 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is wasted as after processing, the plant's particles can be utilized for animals silage. Camelina silage has a particularly appealing concentration of omega-3 fatty acids that make it an especially great livestock feed prospect that is recently getting recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and competes well versus weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be an ideal low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."Camelina, a branch of the mustard household, is native to both Europe and Central Asia and barely a brand-new crop on the scene: archaeological evidence indicates it has actually been cultivated in Europe for a minimum of 3 centuries to produce both grease and animal fodder.Field trials of production in Montana, presently the center of U.S. research study, revealed a wide variety of results of 330-1,700 pounds of seed per acre, with oil content varying in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been determined to be in the 6-8 pound per acre variety, as the seeds' little size of 400,000 seeds per lb can develop issues in germination to accomplish an optimum plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.Camelina's potential could enable Uzbekistan to start breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has warped the country's efforts at agrarian reform given that achieving self-reliance in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government identified that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing textile market. The process was accelerated under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also bought by Moscow to plant cotton, Uzbekistan in specific was singled out to produce "white gold."By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had become self-sufficient in cotton; 5 decades later it had actually become a major exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, focused in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.Try as it might to diversify, in the lack of options Tashkent remains wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million tons annually, which brings in more than $1 billion while making up approximately 60 percent of the nation's hard cash earnings.Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet federal government's regulations for Central Asian cotton production largely bankrupted the region's scarcest resource, water. Cotton uses about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet organizers to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the region's two main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into inefficient irrigation canals, resulting in the dramatic shrinking of the rivers' last destination, the Aral Sea. The Aral, as soon as the world's fourth-largest inland sea with a location of 26,000 square miles, has shrunk to one-quarter its initial size in one of the 20th century's worst ecological catastrophes.And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University just recently described camelina's organization model to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would bring in $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would gather $230."Central Asia has the land, the farms, the watering facilities and a modest wage scale in comparison to America or Europe - all that's missing out on is the foreign investment. U.S. investors have the money and access to the know-how of America's land grant universities. What is particular is that biofuel's market share will grow over time; less specific is who will gain the benefits of establishing it as a feasible issue in Central Asia.If the current past is anything to pass it is not likely to be American and European investors, fixated as they are on Caspian oil and gas.But while the Japanese flight experiments suggest Asian interest, American financiers have the scholastic competence, if they want to follow the Silk Road into establishing a brand-new market. Certainly anything that decreases water usage and pesticides, diversifies crop production and improves the lot of their agrarian population will get most mindful factor to consider from Central Asia's governments, and farming and grease processing plants are not just much less expensive than pipelines, they can be developed quicker.And jatropha curcas's biofuel capacity? Another story for another time.