CSDMS 2013 annual meeting poster Celso Ferreira

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<FONT style="FONT-SIZE:10pt" color="#ffffff">Presentation provided during CSDMS annual meeting 2013</font>
=Implications of land-cover changes caused by sea-level rise on hurricane storm surge damage=
Celso Ferreira, George Mason University Fairfax Virginia, United States. cferrei3@gmu.edu
Abstract:
Hurricanes are one of the most costly natural disasters impacting US coastal areas. Recent studies point towards an increase in damages caused by hurricanes, resulting from sea-level rise (SLR), possible hurricane intensification due to a warmer climate and increasing coastal populations. The SLR is one of the most significant factors of climate change that will impact coastal areas. Besides geometrical changes in coastal bays (i.e., deeper water depth and larger surface area), SLR is also expected to have substantial impacts on the patterns and process of coastal wetlands, thereby affecting surge generation and propagation inside the bays. We analyzed the impacts of SLR on hurricane storm surges, structural building damage, and population and businesses affected for coastal bays located on the Texas central coast. To evaluate the effects of SLR on surges, we considered its impacts on changes in land cover and bay geometry caused by SLR. The analyses were conducted using the hydrodynamic model ADCIRC and a wind and pressure field model (PBL) representing the physical properties of historical hurricane Bret and hypothetical storms. The effects of land cover change were represented within ADCIRC by the changes in the frictional drag at the sea bottom and changes in momentum transfer from the wind to the water column caused by vegetation losses. Simulations were performed using a high-resolution unstructured numerical mesh to study surge response in communities along the coastal bays of Texas. First, we evaluated the impacts of land cover changes due to SLR on the surge response. Second, we evaluated the impacts of neglecting land cover changes due to SLR on the surge response. Finally, we evaluated the overall effect of SLR on the mean maximum surge and the consequent extent of the flooded areas. 
Although the overall impacts of SLR on surge (i.e.: water elevation above mean water level) are highly dependent on storm conditions and specific locations within the study area, we showed that the mean maximum surge (spatial average within each bay) increases with SLR. The overall mean maximum surge within the study area increased on average approximately 0.1 m (SLR of 0.5 m) and 0.7 m (SLR of 2.0 m). Simulations neglecting land cover changes due to SLR did significantly underestimate the expected structural damage for buildings. This difference increased with SLR and was affected by the storm meteorological conditions. Stronger and faster storms were associated with higher underestimation. Although considering land cover changes resulted in an overall damage increase, for SLR below 0.5 m, this increase was almost negligible. As a result, the land cover changes arising from SLR are important for damage estimation considering SLR scenarios over at least 0.5 m. For example, when considering a SLR of 0.6 m, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (2007) high emission scenario, we demonstrated a 10% increase in building structural damage. The assimilation of land cover changes is especially important when calculating expected damages from high SLR scenarios. If a SLR of 2.0 m is assumed, a 35% increase in the expected structural damage to buildings is estimated. In summary, the changes in coastal bay geometry and land cover caused by SLR play an important role in the resulting surge response. The variability of the surge response is also greatly affected by location and the characteristics of the storm.
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