Table 5. Target intra-cluster development scenario in the Altai Republic 
Indicators

Table 5. Target intra-cluster development scenario in the Altai Republic
Indicators
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Maral deer
population,
thousand head
56,2
58,6
61,2
62,5
63,9
65,2
66,6
67,9
Gross output of
raw antlers, tonnes
91,8
96,3
103,2
92,5
88,9
84,6
86,2
92,3
Production of
preserved antlers,
tonnes
67,0
69,8
72,8
74,4
76,1
77,6
79,3
80,9
Returns from maral
deer production
sales, mn. rub.
708,5 806,3 905,3 990,2
1087,3
1181,4
1274,7
1369,8
Production cost,
mn rub.
270,0 285,8 313,8 341,8
369,9
397,9
425,9
453,9
Deductions in the
budget of the
Republic, mn. rub.
127,5 145,1 163,0 178,2
195,7
212,7
229,4
246,6
Net profit from
maral deer
production sales,
mn. rub.
210,9 275,4 328,6 345,1
361,7
371,9
399,3
401,9
A.V. Glotko, I.N. Sycheva, A.N. Dunets, A.L. Poltarykhin, P.V. Zhuravlev, A.A. Tubalets
11
Table 6. Target extra-cluster development scenario for the Altai Republic
Target prediction
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Cattle population
269,6
273,9
357,4
367,2
376,9
386,7
396,5
406,3
Gross meat
production, thousand
tonnes*
33,5
34,4
44,6
45,9
47,1
48,3
49,5
50,7
Gross milk
production, thousand
tonnes
86,9
85,9
112,4
111,1
109,8
108,4
107,1
119,4
Returns from industry
sales, mn. rub.
328,0
356,1
464,6
477,3
546,6
560,8
574,9
589,1
Cost of production,
mn. rub.
222,9
241,9
245,7
249,5
282,5
286,8
291,0
295,3
Deductions in the
budget of the
Republic, mn. rub.
16,7
17,1
27,8
28,6
32,7
33,6
34,4
35,3
Net profit from cattle
production sales, mn.
rub.
26,3
28,5
54,1
54,9
58,2
61,1
62,2
65,0
4. Results
To assess the planned effect of the development of integration units in the agro-
industrial complex of the Altai Republic, we will perform a comparative analysis of
the scenarios for the development of clusters provided in the third stage of the
methodology in this study (Table 7).
Table 7. Comparative analysis of the ‘business-as-usual’ and target scenarios for
the development of branches of the agro-industrial complex of the Altai Republic
Indicators
Business-as-
usual scenario
Target scenario
Deviation
of target
from
business-
as-usual
scenario,
2025, %
2025
by
2015,
%
2025
2025
by
2015,
%
Intra-cluster
Maral deer population, thousand
heads
57,7
107,2%
67,9
126,2%
117,7%
Gross output of raw antlers, tonnes
69,2
78,8%
92,3
105,1%
133,4%
Production of preserved antlers,
tonnes
62,2
136,7%
80,9
177,7%
130,1%
Returns from maral deer
production sales, mn. rub.
1057
251,5%
1369,8
325,8%
129,6%
Production cost, mn rub.
602,8
248,9%
453,9
189,4%
74,0%
Deductions into the budget of the
Republic, mn. rub.
172,4
227,7%
246,6
325,8%
105,7%
Development of Integration Processes in the Agro-Industrial Complex of the Russian Regions
12
Net profit from maral deer
production sales, mn. rub.
233,3
241,2%
401,9
415,0%
172,1%
Cattle population
299,6
118,4%
406,3
160,4%
135,6%
Gross meat production, thousand
tonnes*
40,3
130,9%
50,7
164,9%
125,8%
Gross milk production, thousand
tonnes
79,8
89,1%
119,4
133,1%
149,6%
Returns from industry sales, mn.
rub.
434,5
185,9%
589,1
252,0%
135,6%
Cost of production, mn. rub.
369,4
185,7%
295,3
148,6%
79,9%
Deductions into the budget of the
Republic, mn. rub.
21,9
184,0%
35,3
296,5%
161,2%
Net profit from cattle production
sales, mn. rub.
32,8
175,1%
65,0
347,6%
198,2%
The target development scenario is the most preferable for the branches of maral
breeding and cattle breeding. As a result of the development of an intra-cluster,
deductions to the budget of the Altai Republic in 2025 will exceed the amount of
deductions in 2015 by 225%, maral deer livestock will increase by 26.2% by 2025,
and profit growth will be 315%. The formation of an extra-cluster by 2025 also
implies the growth of all base indicators of the industry: cattle livestock by 60.4%,
profits by 247.6%, and deductions to the regional budget by 196%. Thus, the
measures proposed within the framework of the development of the agro-industrial
complex of the Altai Republic are effective, because they lead to the implementation
of a more attractive scenario from the economic point of view.
5. Conclusions
1. It is revealed that in current economic conditions the agro-industrial cluster is the
most promising form of integration structure contributing to the sustainable
development of the national agro-industrial complex. The advantage of the cluster
form of integration is its innovative nature in providing for the systemic synergistic
interaction of economic entities, as well as government bodies, and scientific and
educational institutions.
2. A methodology has been developed for assessing extra- and intra-integration
structures consisting of three levels of assessment of the economy of the agro-
industrial sector: the regional level, the economic sector level, and the enterprise
level. To assess the industry (level 2) from the point of view of prospects for
development of integration, a methodology has been developed based on the
compilation of the integration decision-making matrix. The matrix describes the
integration opportunities in the agro-industrial sector of the region in terms of
growth and production efficiency. The matrix is based on a system of indicators: the
coefficient of localization of the industry, and the potential for growth in production
in the industry of the region, defined as the sum of the resource, investment,
A.V. Glotko, I.N. Sycheva, A.N. Dunets, A.L. Poltarykhin, P.V. Zhuravlev, A.A. Tubalets
13
marketing, and personnel potential of the agricultural sector. The third level of
enterprise evaluation is supplemented by a calculation of the synergistic effect of
integration based on the effect of scaling. The proprietary methodology was tested
on the materials of the Altai Republic.
3. As a result of testing the three-level assessment of the prospects for agro-
industrial integration, it has been determined that the livestock industry has the
maximum potential for creating large integrated structures in the Altai Republic. The
need for creating cluster structures as a form of integration units in the livestock
industries of the Altai Republic has been substantiated.
4. The study offers ‘business-as-usual’ and target scenarios for the development of
the agro-industrial complex of the Altai Republic until 2025. The effectiveness of
the proposed measures is reflected in the target scenario for the development of the
agro-industrial complex of the Republic, according to which the formation of intra-
clusters and extra-clusters in 2025 will lead to an increase in total profits of
enterprises in the livestock industries under analysis by 451 million rubles and
budget allocations by 194.3 million rubles.
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