2024 United States Senate Elections (The Nyberg Scenario)

The 2024 United States Senate Elections were held on November 5, 2024.
== Senate Leaders ==
=== Winning Party leaders ===
Winning Party leaders are leaders that held or won at least one seat in this class, or that had at least one Senate seat and were at least once the majority party or minority party in the Senate. There are three parties which met this requirement - the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, and the newly formed Populist Party.
The Senate Democratic Caucus reelected Chuck Schumer leader.
The Senate Republican Conference reelected Mitch McConnell leader. Challenger Rick Scott received 10 votes.
The Populist party, a party formed on September 5, 2023, did not have a member of the United States Senate, however it had convinced the Governor of Tennessee, Bill Lee, to switch parties. Two people ran for leader of the newly formed Populist Party Senatorial Committee - US Representative Mike Gallagher, who had recently switched parties, and Governor Lee. It elected Lee as its Interim Leader, which would be replaced if at least one senator switched parties or after the 2024 election cycle.
=== Smaller Party Leaders ===
The Libertarian National Committee re-elected Angela McArdle leader.
The Green National Committee re-elected their seven leaders:
Ahmed Eltouny, Christopher Stella, Rei Stone-Grover, Garret Wasserman, Margaret Elisabeth, Tamar Yager, Anita Rios.
== Populist Party ==
The Populist Party was since its founding shown as a potential boon for third parties, especially by publications which covered them. It had done things third parties rarely did in a single election cycle - created a super PACs, a congressional committee, a senatorial committee, a governor's association, gotten a fair amount of media attention (especially from conservative media), debated down (with Libertarian presidential candidate Jacob Hornberger), participated in a CPD-sponsored debate, and gotten real money into its efforts (it was financed by billionaires Warren Stephens, Stephen Schwartzman, Ronald Lauder, Linda McMahon, and Peter Thiel).
The Populist Party's strategy was to run candidates for partisan offices, while making a deal with the party which was usually disadvantaged to not run a candidate and endorse theirs instead. This year, the Populists focused on removing Senate Republicans in four red or red-leaning states - Nebraska, Tennessee, Utah, and Texas.
On September 25, 2023, the Populist Party announced their four senatorial candidates - Representative Adrian Smith (Nebraska's special election), former Representative Dan Lipinski (Tennessee), Representative Henry Cuellar (Texas), and former Representative Ben McAdams (Utah). Before switching parties, Smith was a Republican and Lipinski, Cuellar, and McAdams were Democrats. 
On September 26, 2023, the first Populist Party-affiiliated Super PAC, Stand Up For The People PAC, was created.
On September 27, 2023, the Fight For Our Values PAC, which supported anti-abortion candidates and supported three of the four candidates in the Populist slate, was created.
== Arizona ==
== California ==
== Connecticut ==
== Delaware ==
== Florida ==
== Hawaii ==
== Indiana ==
== Maine ==
== Maryland ==
== Massachussetts ==
== Minnesota ==
== Mississippi ==
== Missouri ==
== Montana ==
== Nebraska (regular) ==
== Nebraska (special) ==
== Nevada ==
== New Jersey ==
== New Mexico ==
== New York ==
== North Dakota ==
== Ohio ==
== Pennsylvania ==
== Rhode Island ==
== Tennessee ==
== Texas ==
== Utah ==
Populist nominee Ben McAdams, which was also supported by the Democratic Party, defeated incumbent Republican Mitt Romney. McAdams won Summit and Grand counties, which had also been won by 2018 Democratic nominee Jenny Wilson, and flipped Salt Lake, San Juan, Cache, Weber, and Utah counties.
=== Endorsements ===
==== Ben McAdams (Populist/Democratic) ====
==== US Presidents ====
* Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (Republican)
==== US Senators ====
* Bob Casey Jr., US Senator from Pennsylvania (Democratic)
* Joe Manchin, US Senator from West Virginia (Democratic)
* Rick Santorum, former US Senator from Pennsylvania (Republican)
* Mike Lee, US Senator from Utah (Republican)
* Ben Nelson, former US Senator from Nebraska (Democratic)
==== Governors and Lieutenant Governors ====
* Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Governor of Arkansas (Republican)
* Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas (Republican)
* Kim Reynolds, Governor of Iowa (Republican)
* John Bel Edwards, former Governor of Louisiana
* Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota (Republican)
* Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota (Republican)
* Bill Lee, Governor of Tennessee
* Greg Abbott, Governor of Texas (Republican)
* Greg Gianforte, Governor of Montana (Republican)
* Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia (Republican)
* Henry McMaster, Governor of South Carolina (Republican)
* Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor of Texas (Republican)
* Pamela Evette, Lieutenant Governor of South Carolina (Republican)
==== US Representatives ====
* Grace Meng, US Representative for New York's 6th district (Democratic)
* Chris Stewart, former US Representative for Utah's 2nd district (Republican)
* Burgess Owens, US Representative for Utah's 4th district (Republican)
* Jim Matheson, former US Representative for Utah's 4th district (Democratic)
* Abigail Spanberger, US Representative for Virginia's 7th district (Democratic)
* Mike Gallagher, US Representative from Wisconsin's 8th district
==== Local politicians and individuals ====
* Luz Escamilla, Minority Leader and Member of the Utah State Senate (Democratic)
* Jenny Wilson, Mayor of Salt Lake County and Democratic nominee for US Senate in 2018
* Christopher Peterson, Democratic nominee for Governor of Utah in 2020
* Brian King, Utah State Representative and former Minority Leader (Democratic)
* Trent Staggs, Mayor of Riverton and Republican candidate for US Senate in 2024
* Angela Romero, Minority Leader and member of the Utah House of Representatives (Democratic)
* Karen Mayne, former Minority Leader and Member of the Utah Senate (Democratic)
* Kael Weston, Democratic nominee for Utah's 2nd congressional district in 2020
* Chris Biesinger, Republican candidate for Utah's 4th congressional district in 2020
* Peter Sonski, American Solidarity Party 2024 Presidential nominee
* Andrew Yang, entrepreneur and founder of Venture for America (Independent, Forward)
* Wayne Messam, Mayor of Miramar, Florida (Democratic)
*
==== Organizations ====
* United Automobile Workers
* Latinos for America First
* Students for Life
* Utah AFL-CIO
* Democrats for Life of America
* Fight for our Values PAC, a PAC founded by former Congressman Collin Peterson supporting anti-abortion and DSA-challenged Democrats, including anti-abortion Republicans and third-party candidates
* Winning Path PAC, an organization founded by former Wyoming House Minority Leader Patrick Goggles supporting winnable Democratic challengers and incumbents in red states
* Stand With Our Teachers PAC, an organization founded by Wyoming House Minority Leader Cathy Connolly supporting Democratic statewide and congressional challengers which can win and incumbents
* League of Conservation Voters
* Sierra Club
* United Mine Workers
* National Education Association
* The Stand For Life PAC, an organization founded by Mayra Rodriguez which supports anti-abortion congressional and statewide candidates
* American Solidarity Party, a minor pro-life political party
* Susan B. Anthony List
* American Conservative Union
* The American Solidarity PAC, a PAC started by American Solidarity Party 2020 presidential nominee Brian Carroll supporting American and state Solidarity Party-endorsed candidates
* Reform Party, a minor political party in the United States
=== Mitt Romney (Republican) ===
==== US Senators ====
* Susan Collins, US Senator from Maine
* Evan Bayh, former US Senator from Indiana (Democratic)
==== Governors and Lieutenant Governors ====
* Phil Scott, Governor of Vermont (Populist)
* Charlie Baker, former Governor of Massachusetts
* Spencer Cox, Governor of Utah
* Kathryn Polito, former Lieutenant Governor of Massachussetts
==== US Representatives ====
* David Valadao, US Representative from California's 23rd congressional district
* Thomas Kean Jr., US Representative from New Jersey's 7th congressional district
==== Organizations ====
* Wish List
==== Newspapers ====
* Salt Lake Tribune
== Vermont ==
== Virginia ==
== West Virginia ==
In one of the most shocking upsets of the cycle, Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin defeated Republican nominee Jim Justice. Political analysts attributed this to the "Jim can't pay his bills" campaign caused by a lawsuit against Justice's coal companies where his lawyers said he couldn't pay his bills. Former Republican Representative David McKinley, a Manchin supporter, stated in speeches that Justice was "irresponsible", "harms our coal mining industry", "a lawbreaker", and "a person West Virginians cannot trust", along with the comment that "someone who cannot even pay his own bills should not be West Virginia's next senator". Republican groups also spent much less than Democratic groups after Justice won the Republican primary, thinking that Justice would easily win the general election thanks to Manchin's crumbling approval ratings.
== Wisconsin ==
== Wyoming ==
Incumbent Republican John Barrasso defeated Democrat Mary Throne, however it was closer than expected. Throne unexpectedly won Laramie County, which Barasso has won in every one of his previous races. She also won Teton and Albany counties, counties which 2018 nominee Gary Trauner also won. Throne also outperformed previous Democratic nominees for this seat in the rural counties. This led to some Democratic downballot gains, which probably led to the defeat of Republican state representative Bill Henderson in District 41. 
Category:The Nyberg Scenario