Paper: Stevens (1994)

== Summary ==
Intro mentions that this paper is basically an extension of the Paper: Bane & Ellwood (1986) analysis from 1970-1981 to 1970-1987, plus two extra contributions:
# Examines changes over time in exit rates
# Explores the frequency of multiple spells of poverty
=== I. Data and Methodology ===
* data from PSID 1968-1988 waves
* Exclude persons poor in the initial year of the survey
* Did not exclude one-year spells that resulted from income changes of less than half the needs standard (since cutoff is arbitrary).
=== II. Exit Rates from Poverty Spells ===
She finds baseline poverty rates are very similar to Paper: Bane & Ellwood (1986) if replicating exactly. When not excluding these one year spells as mentioned above, she finds 1970-1987 exit rates of 0.53 for year 1, 0.36 for year 2, and less than 0.2 after 5 years.
Also: analysis on time trend vs. cycle, and looking into why such a time trend is significant for women but not for men. She mentions that there were only very small changes over time in the distributions of beginning and ending events among female-headed households, making it an unlikely explanation for this difference.
=== III. Multiple Spells ===
One way to assess the importance of repeated spells of poverty is to examine the duration of subsequent nonpoverty spells. In the same manner as for poverty spells, exit rates were calculated (year 1: 0.27, year 2: 0.16, year 3: 0.11, year 4: 0.09, ...). Using these to calculate the share of poor-exiters that remain above the poverty line, more than half of them will return to poverty within five years. Repeated spells are especially common for those who come from longer poverty spells. Among those exiting a poverty spell of at least five years, fewer than one-third remain above the poverty line for the next five years.
=== IV. Conclusion ===