DVH Chpt 14

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==Davion Heir (BattleTech CYOA)Chapter 14==
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===State of the Inner Sphere 3014===
Hilton Head, Terra
Sol System, ComStar
3rd December, 3014
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For the eyes of the Primus and First Circuit only.
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Capellan Confederation
The recent invasion has been an absolutely crippling blow to House Liao and the Capellan Confederation. Unless something is done, the Capellan Confederation will be relegated from a major power to a minor power akin to the Taurian Concordat, Magistracy of Canopus and the Outworlds Alliance.
 
Between the initial invasions and the following consolidation invasions, the Confederation lost twenty-seven worlds to the Federated Suns and thirty-one worlds to the Free Worlds League. Beyond the loss of almost sixty worlds, House Liao has lost the majority of its military production to its neighbors along with its current capital and its ancestral home. While it retains its only JumpShip yards, two of its three DropShip yards and several ASF production lines, the Confederation has lost all of its major tank production and only retains its small BattleMech production site on Capella, which can only produce around a company of Vindicators BattleMechs annually.
This is nowhere near enough to provide the CCAF, which has lost over two thousand BattleMechs to destruction on the battlefield, being captured or from mercenaries defecting to one of the invading militarizes, with a sufficient amount of BattleMechs. The CCAF is dangerously weak right now and the only reason that the Confederation isn’t in danger of being outright destroyed is due to House Davion’s preference to strike at House Kurita rather than finishing off its other neighbour.
 
Another danger to its continued survival is the fact that the Capellan Confederation has been cut into three by the follow up invasions by the FWLM, the Duchy of Andurien and the Capellan March. Consolidations around Styk by the FWLM have seen the remaining worlds of the Tikonov commonality cut off from the rest of the Confederation. With no CCAF BattleMech units remaining in the Tikonov Commonality after the surviving regiments were pulled back to Capella and Sarna, some of the local governments have begun to seek favourable terms for integrating into either the Free Worlds League or the Federated Suns. Many more are likely to follow suit in the year while the few that retain loyalty to House Liao will be unable to withstand any attempt at conquest by the FWLM or AFFS.
Any worlds further rimward than Grand Base or Betelgeuse have also been cut off from the rest of the Capellan Confederation. Unlike with the Tikonov Commonality, the CCAF still has BattleMech forces down there, all of which are untouched by the recent fighting. Unfortunately, fully half of these are mercenary units and it is a matter of debate as to how loyal they will remain to House Liao or if the new Chancellor shall focus her limited resources on the territory around Sarna and Capella.
Additionally, it is likely that many of these worlds will attempt to become independent, either on their own or as a new minor state. Colonel Archibald McCarron of McCarron’s Armoured Cavalry has already declared independence from the Capellan Confederation and has formed an independent power with Menke and Mitchel, one he is seeking to expand to neighboring Capellan worlds. Additionally, the Taurian Concordat is undergoing serious consideration of taking a bite out of the Confederation before the Davions can claim those worlds. Hurik has opened negotiations to join the neighboring minor power known as the Aurigan Coalition while the worlds of Ward and Larsha may follow suit depending on what their stationed CCAF units decide. There is also the possibility that the Magistracy of Canopus may attempt to conquer some Capellan worlds given the temperament of the current Magestrix, no matter how unwise such a course of action would be for them.
 
Given her father’s attempt to defend everything, it is likely that Chancellor Candace Liao will abandon the cut-off portions of the Capellan Confederation. Learning from the mistakes of Maximilian Liao, she will be focusing on keeping what she can reasonably protect and then waiting for opportunities to restore the glory of House Liao in the future.
 
As to what the Blessed Order should do, there are a variety of options, but the first and foremost thing is that we must act now to stem the ongoing collapse of the Capellan Confederation if that is what we desire for Blake’s Vision. Should that be the Blessed Order’s course of action, the Confederation requires new BattleMech production most of all so it can replace both its current losses and any future losses that it sustains.
 
While the relatively simple and cheap to make Bug ‘Mechs may be an easy option, the CCAF will require something heavier than twenty ton Light BattleMechs.I have a variety of options prepared, but my preferred option is to have Skobel MechWorks set up a new Mackie production line on either Capella or Sarna. The venerable design is a reliable and well-understood design that should be viable for House Liao to build whilst being an effective foe to face on the battlefield.
 
Furthermore, ROM should consider providing discreet assistance to any resistance movements on the conquered worlds. While the chances of their success are low, doing so would tie up more of the resources of the Federated Suns and Free Worlds League and may provide opportunities for restoration of the Capellan Confederation should House Liao recover from its current state.
 
As a final note, we should be concerned about what path Chancellor Candace Liao chooses to take. During her father’s reign, she had been known according to ROM to secretly harbour a desire to improve relationships with House Davion should reasonable terms be agreed upon. While the devastating invasion that First Prince Victoria Davion did may temper this aspiration of the Chancellor, the character of the First Prince makes it likely that the two women may come to an acceptable accommodation for both parties.
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Free Worlds League
It is undeniable that the Free Worlds League has profited from its invasion of the Capellan Confederation. With the conquest of thirty-one worlds in mere months, including the Capellan capital of Sian, Captain-General Janos Marik has cemented himself as one of the Free Worlds Leagues’ greatest leaders and his political prowess is once again on the rise. While it is unknown what the Captain-General will do next, the League will almost certainly continue to take bites out of the Confederation while the Lyran Commonwealth and Federated Suns are busy dealing with the Draconis Combine. Furthermore, as mentioned in the above section, several worlds in the Capellan Confederation are seeking to peacefully defect to the League.
While in terms of military industry the Free World League might have emerged second place to the Federated Suns, its spoils are nothing to scoff at. The Wasp production on Sian produces three scores of the BattleMech on average while the Transgressor production line will provide the FWLM with a solid dogfighter frame. Nanking produces only a small number of BattleMechs, but it makes up for its low numbers with a greater output of total tonnage with its Riflemans and Wolverines. Styk is the most desirable military production site with around a battalion’s worth of Crusaders being built each year along with just under a company each of Wasps, Stingers, and Locusts are also produced annually. The world of Betelgeuse is also a boon as while no BattleMechs are constructed there, it is the location of plentiful Assault-weight tanks with the Behemoth, Demolisher, and Schrek PPC Carrier all being produced on Betelgeuse.
Unfortunately for the Blessed Order, there are limited ways to hinder the rising star that is the Free Worlds League right now. The current plans to cause a civil war between House Marik and its allies against the Principality of Regulus and the Duchy of Andurien must be put on hold as the massively successful invasion of the Capellan Confederation has left the Captain-General politically unassailable for the time-being. While discreet support can continue to be given to Regulus and Andurien, nothing is likely to come of it for the foreseeable future.
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Federated Suns
First Prince Victoria Davion is one of the greatest threats to the Blessed Order and while her actions speak charitably for her character as a person, they threaten to undo ComStar’s work over the succession wars. A relatively unknown if capable war hero in the AFFS, the sudden and unexpected deaths of both her older brothers have seen Victoria Davion thrust into the throne of the Federated Suns.
 
Within less than a year of claiming her position, Victoria Davion has forged a tentative peace and a semi-alliance between her own nation, the Lyran Commonwealth and Free Worlds League, an unprecedented and monumental act in the Succession Wars. Said semi-alliance was translated into the invasion of the Capellan Confederation, which has only cemented Victoria Davion’s status as one of the greatest First Princes and a major threat to Blake’s Vision.
 
In the invasion, the Federated Suns took less worlds than the Free Worlds League, but it has undeniably profited more from it. Tikonov was the greatest BattleMech production site of the Confederation with around forty Thunderbolts and fifty Vindicators produced every year. While both are capable designs that have served House Liao well, the situation is further worsened by the capture of St. Ives, which produces a variety of ASFs designs. The AFFS has captured more Capellan aerospace production on Texlos, a producer of Lightnings, and on Ares, which in addition to producing around a company of Locusts and Stingers each, also produces the valuable Overlord and Union Classes DropShips.
 
Additional CCAF military production conquered by the Federated Suns includes the Stinger production on Grand Base by Duke Hasek-Davion with over fifty of the Light BattleMech being built annually. Furthermore the Brutus Assault Tank factory on Epsilon Eridani and the DropShip repair facility at Necromo have both been captured by the AFFS.
Following the initial wave of invasions, the AFFS has further weakened House Liao. Tigress and Laurel’s Legion peacefully joined the Federated Suns in exchange for favorable terms and avoiding a destructive and unwinnable invasion. New Hessen was also captured and in a stroke of the First Prince’s diplomatic prowess, Hampton’s Hessens have broken contract with the CCAF in exchange for retaining their homeworld and special privileges. Furthermore, the follow up invasions around Ares have left both Capella and Sarna within striking distance of the AFFS. While any invasions of those worlds are unlikely right now, it is a threat that the CCAF must honour now and in the future. 
 
While First Prince Victoria Davion is a great threat to the Blessed Order and Blake’s Vision, there are limited ways to strike at her. Between the support of House Sandoval, her actions to support the Outback and her successful invasion of the Capellan Confederation, the First Prince is internally secure from political threats and unrest within the Federated Suns. Even the ambitious Duke Hasek-Davion is kept in check by the First Prince holding proof of his attempt to assassinate her.
 
Without internal strife to exploit, the Blessed Order must either resort to interdiction or otherwise directly acting against the Federated Suns or by supporting its enemies, the Capellan Confederation, the Draconis Combine and the Taurian Concordat. 
 
On one final note, I wish to state that given the background of the First Prince and her current track record, I believe there is a non-zero chance of her making successful diplomatic overtures with the Taurians. Her unconventional background gives the First Prince common ground with the Taurians and Victoria Davion opening up neutral or friendly relations with the Calderons is no more impossible than the Solaris Accords or the recent crippling of House Liao.
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Lyran Commonwealth
Most of what there is to say about the Lyran Commonwealth isn’t about what they have done, but what they are going to do. With the invasion of the Capellan Confederation, the AFFS and LCAF will be looking to launch a similar joint invasion of the Draconis Combine. While House Kurita is in a far better position to resist, it is currently unlikely to withstand being focused upon by both the AFFS and LCAF at the same time.
 
Fortunately, the Archon is facing internal dissent. Her cousin Frederick Steiner desires her throne, Free Skye wants their independence and the Brotherhood of Cincinnatus wishes to remove Katrina Steiner and undo her diplomatic actions. Supporting these groups would be an easy and discreet way to cause trouble and disruption for the Archon and the Solaris Accords.
Arranging a reasonable excuse to interdict would help cripple any invasions of the Combine, giving us more opportunities to strengthen the Combine enough to avoid House Kurita suffering a crippling defeat like House Liao. Ideally, none of the dissent groups should be framed for the interdiction so they can use it as ammunition against the Archon.
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Draconis Combine
Preventing the Draconis Combine from being broken like the Capellan Confederation should be one of the Blessed Order’s highest priority. While House Kurita is in a better position than House Liao was, its current state isn’t enough to withstand both the AFFS and LCAF focusing the majority of their resources against the Combine.
 
With the LCAF amassing on its border, the DCMS has had a limited ability to take advantage of the AFFS prioritising the Capellan Confederation. While several raids have been launched to varying degrees of success, no serious invasion has been attempted. At the current rate of progress, the AFFS will recover from any damage done much faster than the DCMS by taking advantage of the spoils from the Confederation.
 
House Kurita intends to have Gorton, Kinsley, and Thorpe Enterprises open additional Panther factories within the next two decades. It may be possible to help speed this up though I will note that additional Light-weight BattleMechs will not be sufficient as a solution. Getting the DCMS domestic production of a Medium-weight BattleMech would help fill a gap in their current formations.
 
Another measure would be giving them some downgraded BattleMechs that the Blessed Order has in storage. While I understand that they are being held in reserve as an emergency measure, the Blessed Order has vast stockpiles and quite frankly some of them aren’t very good. Arranging for House Kurita to find some of the less than desirable BattleMechs that ComStar retains would be an effective way to boost the DCMS as like all Successor States, the Draconis Combine has more MechWarriors than BattleMechs.
 
An additional possibility would be having the Coordinator make use of Hanse Davion. While the 2nd Sword of Light captured the former First Prince back at Halstead Station, the Coordinator has been keeping his capture and continued survival a secret. Despite ROM not being able to identify the reasoning for this, revealing his existence could cause upset amongst the Federated Suns as the AFFS would be strongly obligated to rescue him and the continued survival of her predecessor could undermine Victoria Davion’s legitimacy as the current First Prince.
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==Author's Chapter Notes==
;Word from the Author: And here is the second half of the ComStar report. As can be seen, things are on the up for the Suns, Commonwealth and League and going badly for the Cappies, Dracs and ComStar. Unfortunately for Victoria, ComStar is making plans to even the playing field a bit.Meanwhile the next update will be the beginning of the final part of the story with a surprise perspective.Sort of edit: As a post NaNoWriMo note, I have mixed feelings about having Hanse survive. I thought it was a good twist at the time, but looking back, I’m worried that I put too many twists into the story.
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