Finding Voter Groups

Finding Voter Groups for Political Campaigns .
Bob Blaemire- President of Blaemire Communications.
Transcribed from the American University Campaign School
Seminars broadcast on C-Span on 1-1-04.
(Even if the LPPa isn't able to use all of these
sophisticated tools, we should at least be familiar with
them in general. If your campaign manages to ID 100
supporters and call them near election day, that's a start.)
Voter files are computerized lists of voters. Win by
persuading a majority, but how? You must communicate with
the voters. The communication must be relevant to them.
Strangers have a limited ability to persuade each other
unless they have some information about the other person.
If we meet at a baseball game, then baseball is our common
frame of reference.
Analyze the voter file, and figure out how to frame your
message. Who will we frame our message to? Also who are
we not going to communicate with? We need a different
(though compatable) message for each voter target. Pick the
message that stands the best chance of being persuasive with
that group. We are dealing in probabilities, not
certainties. We need to make accurate assumptions, such as
assuming that seniors care about social security.
Pick out the target groups, decide what we want to
accomplish with them (persuasion or GOTV), Pick out the type
of voter contact (phone, mail, precinct walking, media,
etc). Decide what message to send that target group. Most
of what we learn in politics is by screwing up.
Voter file may contain birthdate, party , reg date, race (in
the south mostly), voter history. It varies by state. Get
gender from first name and is 90% accurate. Get ethnicity
from surname directories. Shaquille O'Neill is not Irish,
though. Many voters change their voter orientation over the
years, but don't change parties. They deal with dozens of
counties within a state, all have different data and
formats. They suppliment the voter file with commercial
data. Gender, race, age are the most important variables.
Voter History- Voting is habit forming. If they have voted
before, they are likely to vote again.
If you ID some supporters who aren't likely to vote, then
you must do GOTV right before the election to get them to
the polls. If there are more than one voter in a
household, you only make one call per Household. ONly send
one piece of mail. Make sure an apt building isn't listed
as a really big household.
They make voter lists in to precinct walking lists. They put
phone numbers int the file. Also change of address. Voter
files must be continually updated. Remove people who have
moved away. Rural areas with RD#1 addresses must be
standardized. Take out deceased people. They don't purge
the voter rolls as much since the Motor Voter Act went into
effect. Take them off the list if over 80 yrs old and they
have no phone number.
Don't waste time contacting dead people or nonvoters. Can
only get phone numbers for 60-70% of voters. Politicians
can call people on the do not call list. UNlisted numbers
and cellphones make it hard to contact many people via
phone. A phone bank will have an average disconnect rate of
17%. They hang up. If 2 phones in a household, the 2nd one
is usually for a minor.
The Senator who championed the '[no call list]' did not make
any phone calls during his campaign. He sent a lot of
letters, though. Also the party did GOTV for everyone.
Some occupations in the voter file matter more than others,
doctors, teachers, lawyers, retirees. Sometimes the voter
files are incomplete when it comes to occupation. Only 700
veterans listed in Ohio's voter file. Homeowners vs.
renters have different views.
Once you select the voter target, how do you get them to pay
attention? People must see an ad several times before it
sinks in. One piece of mail is not a direct mail campaign.
Time line and budget will determine how much voter contact
is done, and when. Many campaigns have no plan written
down. If it isn't written down, then it is not a plan.
For direct mail, you need time to write it, to print it, to
mail it, for it to be delivered. So plan that last mailing
of the campaign a month early. Campaign firms are booked
solid at the end of the election season. Set a sensible
time line.
Some campaigns use volunteers for direct mail and for their
computer needs. Hire them if you can afford it. With
volunteers, if the one volunteer who knows how to use the
computer program isn't available, then you are stuck.
Vendors are more efficient because they do this stuff all
the time. If you use volunteers, make sure that there is
more than one in-house person who can do it.
Email is best for fundraising and to build volunteer lists.
Let them opt in. Jessie Ventura got 3,000 volunteers
through his web site. They all voted in every straw poll in
the state. He won all the unofficial straw polls.
Web-based voter files are the next step. You pay for
access, get a password. But people make mistakes in what
they ask for.
Arizona 4th district candidate had $5,000 for direct
mailing. He targeted non-Republican women. Wanted mail
piece, followed by phone banks. Had $5,000 budget. 50
cents per letter. Wanted to send 5,000 letters and spend
the rest on phone banks. How to pare down the voter
universe to fit your budget?
Dist had 18,627 nonGOP female voters
had 8,552 nonGOP female voters who voted in the past 2
elections.
had 5,736 nonGOP female voters who live in a precinct with a
democratic performance of 35-55. (the percentage who
typically vote). They skip the districts where no one
votes, and the one where everyone votes.
So, 5,736 x .50 per letter = $2,585 to mail letters to these
voters.
Only 4,119 of them had phone info. So they made 4,119 phone
calls at 65 cents apiece.
Remember that your campaign is not that unique. There have
been many campaigns in the US that are similar to yours.
Use info to find groups of voters. Communicate with them
relevantly. All this stuff makes a difference in a close
race. In a landslide, it won't really matter if you pick up
4 points here and there.
Voters take cues from many places. TV radio,internet, mail,
friends, phones, family, ads, comedy shows.