2026 United States Senate elections (Hairy Woodchuck)

The 2026 United States Senate elections were very pivotal in many ways. To start, there were 7 retirements from incumbents, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, which was a number much higher than average. Turnout for this midterm was extremely high. After the 2024 Presidential election where President Joe Biden redefeated Donald Trump in a huge landslide, the 2026 midterm elections were actually considered to be favorable for Democrats. 
Things went wrong for Republican from the start. In many states, a large crowd of squabbling moderates allowed for rightwing extremists to shore up their support and win the nomination. This was the case in Georgia, a state that was considered to be in play for Republicans until fascist Marjorie Taylor Greene got the nomination, after which incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff pulled away in the polls and there was no longer any doubt he would be reelected. The same happened in New Mexico and Colorado, 2 states where early on it was believed that Republicans may have had chances but squandered those opportunities when Lauren Boebert won the Republican primary in Colorado and Claire Chase did so in neighboring New Mexico. 
However, the worst case of this was in Illinois, where another crowded primary allowed Nazi supporter Art Jones to win the nomination. Many prominent Republicans refused to condemn Jones- in fact, many chose to endorse him, basically saying "While Mr. Jones's beliefs are wrong, I have no choice but to support him because America cannot become a socialist country". This is largely what caused the downfall of Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, with Cheri Beasley surging past him in the polls after Tillis made an equivalent statement to the one above. Democrats pulled off an even more impressive defeat in South Carolina, where Senator Lindsey Graham's endorsement of Jones was only the tip of the iceberg; Graham also was embroiled in a major corruption scandal involving Russian money and he also voted against many popular pieces of legislation signed into law by President Biden. Ultimately, all this cost him his seat.
Nonetheless, Republicans were able to run some strong candidates. In Texas, for example, Congressman Tony Gonzales narrowly edged out former HUD Secretary Julian Castro, as Gonzales was able to appeal to enough moderate voters in the suburbs. In Michigan, incumbent Senator Gary Peters was in hot water over several campaign finance violations, and the very moderate Peter Meijer was able to defeat the weakened Senator Peters. This was the only seat flipped for Republicans. In addition, despite Democrat success in formerly red states, veteran moderate Republican Senator Susan Collins was able to narrowly win reelection in Maine. Collins' success largely was because she had broken with her party on many issues. 
The biggest upset of the night occurred in Iowa when J.D. Scholten ousted incumbent Senator Joni Ernst, who was widely expected to win reelection. Scholten relied on massive in-person campaigning in every single county in the state. In addition, Democrats started a youth movement in the state which targeted millennial voters and urged them to break with their conservative parents and vote Democratic. Ernst, meanwhile, didn't hold any campaign events and spent much of the campaign season on Fox News where she repeatedly called her opponent a "socialist." The resulting Democratic victory enabled Democrats to gain 4 seats in the Senate.
State 	Prediction 	Democrat 	Total 	Republican 	Total 	Result 	Summary
Alabama 	Safe Republican 	Terri Sewell 	33.07% 	Tommy Tuberville (i) 	65.73%	Incumbent reelected, Republican hold 	Incumbent Tommy Tuberville easily won reelection in deep-red Alabama.
Alaska 	Likely Republican 	Forrest Dunbar 	44.9% 	Dan Sullivan (i) 	50.97%	Incumbent reelected, Republican hold 	Democrats considered this to be a competitive race and invested quite a bit of money here, but incumbent Dan Sullivan was able to win reelection by 6 points.
Arkansas 	Safe Republican 	Joyce Elliott 	8.42% 	Tom Cotton (i) 	90.28%	Incumbent reelected, Republican hold.	Winning over 95% of white voters, Tom Cotton's lopsided 82 point margin of victory was the largest victory for any Republican running against any Democrat for the Senate in American history.
Colorado 	Safe Democrat 	John Hickenlooper (i) 	71.89% 	Lauren Boebert 	24.19%	Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold 	In what was already considered to be an uncompetitive race in solidly blue Colorado, the Colorado GOP essentially committed suicide by nominating fascist extremist Lauren Boebert who had narrowly won reelection to her House seat in 2022 in what was considered to be suspicious circumstances. By running for Senate, all of her crimes regarding campaign finance violations in addition to crimes relating to her failing restaurant were brought to light. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy eventually had to fold to public pressure and demanded that she resign. Her refusal to do so caused her to sink even lower in the polls. In the end, incumbent Senator John Hickenlooper defeated her by nearly 50 points and won nearly every county in the state.
Delaware 	Safe Democrat 	Chris Coons (i) 	61.44% 	Lauren Witzke 	35.28%	Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold 	Fascist, racist, drug addict, and flat-Earther Lauren Witzke tried her luck for a second time against Senator Chris Coons. This time, she fared even worse than she did in 2020. Senator Coons won all 3 of Delaware's counties; Witzke had managed to win Sussex County in 2020.
Georgia 	Safe Democrat 	Jon Ossoff (i) 	55.18% 	Marjorie Taylor Greene 	41.39%	Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold 	This was considered to be a very close race early on and a potential flip for Republicans. However, when fascist Marjorie Taylor Greene beat out a crowded field of squabbling moderate Republicans in the primary, Senator Jon Ossoff took a double digit lead in the polls. He ended up winning by close to 15 points.
Idaho (open) 	Safe Republican 	James Vandermaas 	36.01% 	Russ Fulcher 	62.28%	Incumbent retired, Republican hold 	Republican Congressman Russ Fulcher easily held the open seat that was vacated by the retiring Senator Jim Risch.
Illinois (open) 	Safe Democrat 	Lauren Underwood 	75.33% 	Art Jones 	23.19%	Incumbent retired, Democratic hold 	Longtime Senator Dick Durbin announced his retirement in 2025. Congresswoman Lauren Underwood easily received the Democratic nomination. As was the case in Colorado, a crowded field of moderate Republicans allowed the pro-Trump Nazi Art Jones to get the Republican nomination. Illinoisans were outraged and many demanded a redo of the primaries; even a handful of high-profile Republicans supported this. However, no such redo could be done, and most people then came to realize that there was zero chance Jones could win in what was already a deep blue state. Underwood won by nearly 50 points and won all but 2 of Illinois' counties.
Iowa 	Lean Republican 	J.D. Scholten 	50.42% 	Joni Ernst (i) 	48.87%	Incumbent defeated, Democratic gain 	Despite a large fundraising advantage and a modest lead in the polls for Senator Joni Ernst, J.D. Scholten managed to defeat her in a large upset. Analysts attributed this to Scholten's 99 county campaign and many youth voters breaking with their conservative families and voting for him.
Kansas 	Likely Republican 	Sharice Davids 	45.27% 	Roger Marshall (i) 	53.94%	Incumbent reelected, Republican hold 	Democrats had high hopes about this race, as Congresswoman Sharice Davids had a large fundraising advantage and had visited almost every part of the state. At the end, incumbent Senator Roger Marshall won reelection, but only by single digits.
Kentucky (open) 	Safe Republican 	Charles Booker 	42.82% 	Daniel Cameron 	55.17%	Incumbent retired, Republican hold 	After losing to Senator Rand Paul in 2022, Charles Booker decided to try his luck again, running for the open seat vacated by the retiring Mitch McConnell. Although he ran a spirited campaign and visited every county in the state, he still lost to Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Cameron thus became the first African American to ever be elected to the Senate in Kentucky.
Louisiana 	Safe Republican 	Troy Carter, Cedric Richmond	26.35%, 11.87%	Bill Cassidy (i) 	59.96%	Incumbent reelected, Republican hold 	Knowing that there was no chance to beat incumbent Senator Bill Cassidy, Congressmen Troy Carter and Cedric Richmond ran campaigns to "raise awareness."
Maine 	Tilt Republican 	Zak Ringelstein 	43.61% 	Susan Collins (i) 	44.26%	Incumbent reelected, Republican hold 	Longtime moderate stalwart Susan Collins was very narrowly reelected in what ended up being the most expensive race in the country. She defeated progressive Democrat Zak Ringelstein, who had previously lost to Senator Angus King back in 2018.
Massachusetts (open)	Safe Democrat 	Ayanna Pressley 	68.21% 	Rayla Campbell 	30.77%	Incumbent retired, Democratic hold 	Progressive Democrat Ayanna Pressley easily absorbed the open seat left by the retiring Ed Markey.
Michigan 	Lean Republican (flip)	Gary Peters (i) 	45.92 	Peter Meijer 	50.82%	Incumbent defeated, Republican gain 	Incumbent Democrat Gary Peters was embroiled in a campaign finance scandal, which enabled the very moderate Peter Meijer to defeat him in this closely watched race.
Minnesota 	Safe Democrat 	Tina Smith (i) 	55.6% 	Jim Hagedorn 	41.49%	Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold 	Republicans viewed this race as a potential pickup opportunity, but Jim Hagedorn turned out to be a very poor candidate. The majority of Minnesotans thought that he was too conservative and out-of-step with the state. Senator Tina Smith won reelection by close to 15 points.
Mississippi 	Likely Republican 	Lataisha Jackson 	44.23% 	Cindy Hyde-Smith (i) 	53.66%	Incumbent reelected, Republican hold 	Although turnout from African Americans was historically high because of Democratic candidate Lataisha Jackson, incumbent Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith won reelection by close to 10 points.
Montana 	Likely Republican 	Kathleen Williams 	45.17% 	Steve Daines (i) 	52.89%	Incumbent reelected, Republican hold 	Although Kathleen Williams put up a very hard fight, incumbent Senator Steve Daines won reelection by close to 8 points, a margin slightly lower than his 10 point victory in 2020.
New Hampshire (open)	Likely Democrat 	Chris Pappas 	53.54% 	Don Bolduc 	45.08%	Incumbent retired, Democratic hold 	After planning on running for reelection, Senator Jeanne Shaheen decided to retire due to health concerns. This was viewed as a huge opportunity for Republicans to flip a seat, but the Democratic candidate, Congressman Chris Pappas, took a large lead in the polls when pro-Trump Don Bolduc got the nomination. Pappas won by 8 points, a very sizable margin considering this was an open seat in a purple state.
New Jersey 	Safe Democrat 	Cory Booker (i) 	62.75% 	Thomas Kean Jr. 	36.49%	Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold 	Although his father was once a popular governor in New Jersey, Thomas Kean Jr was no match for the polarization in the solidly blue state. Senator Cory Booker won reelection by close to 30 points.
New Mexico 	Safe Democrat 	Ben Ray Lujan (i) 	59.61% 	Claire Chase 	35.97%	Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold 	Republicans initially had high hopes about this race, as they fielded several formidable candidates. However, fascist Claire Chase won the primary in a major upset, after which the race was considered to be safe for Senator Ben Ray Lujan.
North Carolina 	Likely Democrat (flip)	Cheri Beasley 	53.74% 	Thom Tillis (i) 	44.19%	Incumbent defeated, Democratic gain 	Senator Thom Tillis's refusal to denounce Art Jones endorse Lauren Underwood in the Illinois Senate race ended up costing him most of his support from independent voters. Cheri Beasley defeated him by nearly 10 points; her victory also was attributed to her success at turning out African Americans.
Oklahoma (open) 	Safe Republican 	Mary Brannon 	32.62% 	Stephanie Bice 	65.8% 	Incumbent retired, Republican hold 	Stephanie Bice became the first woman ever to be elected Senator in Oklahoma, succeeding the retiring Jim Inhofe.
Oregon 	Safe Democrat 	Jeff Merkley (i) 	61.27% 	Mike Nearman 	35.01%	Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold 	Fascist Mike Nearman lost by 26 points to Senator Jeff Merkley.
Rhode Island 	Safe Democratic 	Jack Reed 	70.33% 	Allan Fung 	27.89%	Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold 	Allan Fung tried his political luck for a third time after twice running for governor and losing in the state. However, he was no match for Senator Jack Reed. who won by over 40 points.
South Carolina 	Tilt Democrat (flip) 	Seth Rose 	51.39% 	Lindsay Graham (i) 	47.62%	Incumbent defeated, Democratic gain 	Senator Lindsay Graham was under multiple federal investigations for money-laundering, bribery, and other charges. This made him extremely unpopular in his state but the race was still considered to be competitive because South Carolina's partisan leanings. In the end, Graham lost reelection by close to 4 points.
South Dakota 	Safe Republican 	Troy Heinert 	33.82% 	Mike Rounds (i) 	64.23%	Incumbent reelected, Republican hold 	Senator Mike Rounds won reelection by over 30 points in this uneventful race.
Tennessee 	Safe Republican 	Christopher Hale 	34.14% 	Bill Hagerty (i) 	65.03%	Incumbent reelected, Republican hold 	Senator Bill Hagerty was reelected to a second term by over 30 points. Support for Hagerty exceeded 90% in nearly 20 Tennessee counties.
Texas (open) 	Tossup 	Julian Castro 	48.69% 	Tony Gonzales 	50.25%	Incumbent retired, Republican hold 	Senator John Cornyn's retirement gave Democrats a potentially huge pickup opportunity. Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro took an early lead in the polls, but Congressman Tony Gonzales later caught up and the race was considered to be a pure tossup. In the end, Gonzales won by about 1.5 points. His victory was attributed to campaigning as a centrist Republican, which helped him in suburban areas.
Virginia 	Safe Democrat 	Mark Warner (i) 	58.46% 	Morgan Griffith 	39.87%	Incumbent reelected, Democratic hold 	A purple state no longer, Senator Mark Warner won reelection by nearly 20 points in Virginia.
West Virginia 	Safe Republican 	Paula Jean Swearingen 	30.99% 	Shelley Moore Capito (i)	67.76%	Incumbent reelected, Republican hold 	Senator Shelley Moore Capito won reelection in a landslide, although she narrowly lost 2 counties in the state.
Wyoming 	Safe Republican 	Lynette Grey Bull 	29.04% 	Cynthia Lummis (i) 	68.53%	Incumbent reelected, Republican hold 	Senator Cynthia Lummis won a second term by close to 40 points, typical of Wyoming.
Category:Politics
Category:Hairy Woodchuck's Scenario