Future History II: 2050s

Future History Based From FutureTimeline.net (2024 Revision)
= 2050 =
== Humanity is at a crossroads ==
The world of 2050 is a world of contrasts and paradoxes. On the one hand, science and technology have continued to advance in response to emerging crises, challenges and opportunities. This has created radical transformations in genetics, nanotechnology, biotechnology and related fields. On the other hand, many of these same technologies have been so disruptive that it has led to a more frightening, unpredictable and chaotic world than ever before. Humanity is now at a crossroads that will determine its future path for centuries to come – survival or destruction, prosperity or collapse.
Some of the most cherished political, economic and social structures have been turned on their heads. In a sense, capitalism remains the dominant economic model, but is now evolving drastically in response to ecological impacts,* resource scarcity,* demographic trends,* technology* and a host of other factors.* The endless consumer culture that was prevalent throughout the first world has all but collapsed, replaced by a societal need to conserve.* Though there are still many wealthy people around, money is concentrated in a shrinking upper class. By 2050, "traditional" free market capitalism is largely viewed as a broken system.***
As more and more wealth trickles upwards to the hyper-rich elite, there is a growing consensus that money itself – the profit motive – is a major obstacle to future progress, and a new driving force may be required for civilisation to flourish. Debates are raging on what reforms to make in order to adapt societies to this rapidly changing world. People everywhere sense that a great transition is approaching, the likes of which has never been seen before in all of human history.* It is clear that some new global paradigm will appear; but it is still unclear what this will be.
Decades of stagflation have produced a fragmented, chaotic and perpetually sluggish global economy. Nearly half of the world's nations have "junk" credit ratings, effectively making them bankrupt.* US national debt has now reached almost 400% of GDP,* far exceeding even the levels seen during World War II. China and India, though surpassing the US in overall GDP,* have also stagnated.
In the face of economic catastrophe, international politics has faced enormous challenges. Although the number of democratic countries has risen significantly over the years,* many have turned inward, cutting off foreign relations. Revolutions, wars and failed states have produced a strikingly different geopolitical map than seen at the beginning of the century. To repair and maintain the fabric of society, an increasing number of regions have abandoned their national currencies in favour of interest-free, non-fiat, non-inflationary local ones.* Decentralised cash systems such as the Bitcoin* and other electronic alternatives have also exploded in use.
Social systems are under extraordinary stress today. The younger generations are increasingly resentful towards the elderly – seeing them as the cause of many problems, and a drain on capital as the ratio of workers to seniors continues to fall.** The rich and poor have continued to grow apart, now that upward social mobility has become next to impossible. Massive protests outside corporate HQs and gated communities are a daily reality on the news. Global warming has created almost 150 million climate refugees: a sixfold increase compared to 2010.* The influx of people to foreign lands has put a further strain on economies. Resentment towards migrants has produced an upsurge in nationalism with many isolationist parties sweeping government elections. To maintain order and stability, martial law and military occupation is a feature of many cities around the globe. Radical new political parties and movements have emerged, advocating the overthrow of the reigning system.
Recycling and waste management – for decades neglected by many countries* – are among the issues now taking centre stage.* New regulations and market pressures have forced corporations to move away from the model of planned obsolescence** and mass production, to one of conservation and responsibility. Most firms no longer sell entirely new models of their products when technological advances are made. Instead, replacement components and upgrades form the bulk of profits, with items made of universally interchangeable parts. In a world of increasing resource conflicts, "doing more with less" has become an essential mantra.* A system is also employed whereby customers return products at the end of their life cycle, to be used as materials for the next generation. In some of the worst-hit countries, mandatory resource dumps are organised, in which citizens are obligated to recycle any unnecessary possessions. Naturally such systems are highly controversial and intrusive.
Meanwhile, the widespread use of robots,* automation,* 3D printing* and other technology has rendered obsolete many traditional human roles. Though industries have made vast improvements in speed and efficiency, it has come at the expense of a declining labour force. Consequently, overall government revenues have seen a net reduction.
Radical Islam and its resentment of the West continue to produce new Jihadists. In addition, underground groups ranging from those angry at the first world's neglect, to anarcho-primitivists, have sprung up. By 2050, at least one terrorist nuclear attack on a major world city has been conducted by one of these groups. Large amounts of nuclear material had been missing from Russia since the 1990s and some inevitably fell into the wrong hands.* Being orders of magnitude greater than 9/11, the effects of this attack leave a deep psychological scar on many people alive today, fuelling much paranoia and suspicion between nations.
Despite this turmoil, progress has been achieved in cooperating on certain key issues, such as global warming. Carbon emissions have fallen substantially compared with 1990 levels,* thanks to a global carbon tax* and the widespread deployment of solar, wind and wave power,* together with 4th generation nuclear.* Fossil fuel reserves were declining in any case.** Fusion power is also becoming available now* and is being adopted by some of the leading nations. Orbital solar is another emerging industry.* Energy efficiency and conservation have provided further reductions in CO2 output.
However, carbon emissions from earlier decades remain locked into the system. This delayed reaction will continue to affect weather patterns and climate stability,* as will the ongoing destruction of the Earth's rainforests, some of which are transitioning from carbon sinks to carbon sources. Sea levels have risen over a foot by now* and are beginning to affect much of the world's coastal real estate. Large-scale carbon capture and sequestration** appears to be humanity's last and only hope of reversing these trends.
== Nearly half of the Amazon rainforest has been deforested ==
Lack of enforcement in the so-called protected areas has resulted in the Amazon undergoing a catastrophic decline. Though army troops were sent into regions of illegal deforestation, their numbers were simply too small, and the Amazon too vast, to have sufficient impact. Political corruption also played a role in undermining protection efforts. Droughts caused by global warming have further contributed to the decline, with many areas of jungle being turned into parched scrubland. By 2050, nearly 2.7 million sq km have been deforested.*
As a result, over 30 billion tons of carbon have been added to the atmosphere. Although clean energy sources are offsetting this, they can't save the countless species of plant and animal life dependent on the rainforest for survival. Substantial amounts of biodiversity have been lost. Desperate efforts are being made by non-profit organisations to obtain DNA samples, in the hope of resurrecting these species at some point in the future.
== Wildfires have tripled in some regions ==
Rising global temperatures are creating drier conditions for vegetation – producing larger and more frequent wildfires. In North America, the geographic area typically burned has increased by an average of 50%. Worst hit are the forests of the Pacific Northwest and the Rocky Mountains, which have seen a tripling of areas affected.*
With so much extra burning, air quality and visibility in the western United States is being significantly altered. There has been a 40% rise in organic carbon aerosols and other smoke particles. These irritate the lungs, but are especially dangerous to people who have trouble breathing as a result of asthma and other chronic conditions. Southern Europe is also badly affected – especially Greece, which has been ravaged in recent decades.*
These wildfires are triggering positive feedback loops. As more and more carbon is liberated from burning material and released into the atmosphere, this is further accelerating the pace of global warming.
== Traditional wine industries have been severely altered by climate change ==
By 2050, many of the world's most famous wine-producing areas have been rendered unsuitable for traditional grape growing and winemaking, with climate change having severely impacted land use, agricultural production and species ranges. The area suitable for wine production has declined by almost 85 per cent in some regions. California, Mexico, the eastern USA, Southern Europe, South Africa and Australia are particularly affected.**
In response to the crisis, many traditional vineyards have shifted to higher elevations with cooler conditions – putting pressure on upland ecosystems, as water and vegetation are converted for human use. Others have made use of genetic engineering, or indoor growing methods such as vertical farming. Geoengineering efforts are also getting underway, but have yet to be successful on a global basis.*
Although many regions have been devastated, others have actually benefited. This is particularly noticeable in the Rocky Mountains near the Canadian-US border, the westernmost parts of Russia, and Europe which has seen a massive shift northward in the areas suitable.
== Fish body size has declined by nearly a quarter ==
By far the greatest impact from global warming has been in the seas and oceans,* where changes in heat content, oxygen levels and other biogeochemical properties have devastated marine ecosystems. Globally, the average body size of fish has declined by up to 24 per cent compared with 2000.* About half of this shrinkage has come from changes in distribution and abundance, the remainder from changes in physiology. The tropics have been the worst affected regions.
== Hi-tech, intelligent buildings are revolutionising the urban landscape ==
In the first half of the 21st century, a soaring urban population posed serious problems for the environment, health and infrastructure of many cities. In newly industrialised nations especially, urban centres became polluted, overcrowded and chronically inefficient. Throughout the world, metropolitan areas grew to unprecedented sizes – putting huge and increasing pressure on city planners to adapt.*
Amid worsening climate change and resource depletion, urban regions were forced to either evolve, or die off. Countless cities failed to make this transition in time, and went the way of Detroit, many being abandoned and left to decay, or subject to intense military control and martial law. In those that survived, a new generation of buildings and infrastructure emerged based on these rapidly changing social and environmental needs.*
Among the most important trends in modern architecture has been self-sufficiency. By 2050, environmental and resource degradation have become so obvious and huge, it has triggered a radical rethink of production and consumption by citizens. As such, many modern skyscrapers now come complete with the internalised creation of food, water and other resources. Farms often comprise multiple floors of a tower – regardless of its purpose – while rain, mist and condensation are constantly trapped and stored. Advanced 3D printers are available locally on site to manufacture everything from household furniture, to personal transportation, to replacement parts for the building itself. Energy is typically provided by photovoltaics and wind turbines. These are often integrated seamlessly into the building design, so as not to harm the aesthetic appeal. Solar power, for instance, can be collected by window panes or special photovoltaic paints applied to outside surfaces.* The efficiencies for solar have been improving steadily for decades.*
Nature features heavily in these structures. Many towers incorporate parks and sky gardens, helping to increase the overall biodiversity of a city, with numerous bird and small animal species finding homes and nesting places. Careful environmental controls ensure that these creatures are protected while not becoming a nuisance for human residents. The outside of buildings are often covered with vegetation, or special membranes, designed to filter pollutants and capture CO2.* Government regulations now require a large percentage of buildings to be fitted in this way, making it a dominant style of architecture today. The artificial parts of this outer layer can also adjust to wind conditions, temperatures, moisture levels and sunlight in order to produce optimal thermal comfort for the human and animal occupants. Algae bio-fuel cells adorning the facade can also absorb CO2 while acting as an additional source of electricity.*
Buildings are integrated into the city around them in a number of ways. Fuel restrictions and other factors have led to increasingly socialised transportation. The bottom floors of most towers have dedicated public car share (AI controlled) and bike share facilities, while bus and other mass transit stations are often built into the structures themselves. Pedestrian sky-walkways feature heavily in most modern cities, improving access and permeability of the urban realm, while shielding walkers from the elements. If ornamented with foliage, they can also function as elevated parks and gardens.
Buildings are making cities more comfortable and inviting in various other ways. By tightly controlling a tower's reflectivity, heat absorption and heat balance, for example, planners can significantly reduce the temperatures associated with urban heat island effects. This comes at a time when temperatures in less developed cities are soaring from the combined effects of climate change and urbanisation.*
The average modern building in 2050 is seamlessly integrated into a city's power supply, acting as another node in a city-wide smart grid. Nearly all buildings are able to transmit locally produced energy back into the system. Wireless electricity transfer is also common, with energy beamed invisibly between buildings, which eliminates the need for unsightly poles and cables. AI systems within each building direct its total power consumption, adjusting according to the varying needs of occupants and taking into account even the most minor of details.
Overall, this new smart infrastructure is helping to drastically improve the nature of urban living. Cities following this model are becoming far more liveable, clean, efficient and modernised. Though many regions have collapsed into chaos, others are now leading the way in providing a more sustainable path for humanity.
== Smaller, safer, hi-tech automobiles ==
Increased living costs, lifestyle changes and environmental factors have resulted in smaller, more energy-efficient cars that are usually rented on demand rather than owned. More people than ever before are choosing to live and work alone, while the number of children per couple has also declined, which is reducing the demand for larger and more expensive vehicles.
Practically all cars in the developed world are now self-driving* and either hybrid or pure electric, while traffic flow and other road management issues are handled by advanced networks of AI. The resulting fall in congestion has boosted economies by billions of dollars. Air pollution has also declined greatly.
The inherent safety of being controlled by machine intelligence, rather than human hands, allows for greater speed of travel. An increasing number of countries are removing the speed limits on highways. Even when crashes do occur, which is extremely rare, built-in safety features and tougher materials (e.g. carbon nanotubes) mean that fatalities are becoming virtually non-existent.
== Major advances in air travel comfort ==
Commercial airliners of 2050 are safer, quieter and cleaner than those of earlier decades. The vast majority are based on some form of renewable energy. Additionally, travel times have greatly improved. Hypersonic engines have seen further development, aided by the rapid growth of artificial intelligence and the resulting advances in computer-automated design evolution. It is now possible to reach anywhere on the planet in under 2.5 hours.
The interiors of most planes are breathtakingly luxurious compared to those of earlier decades. New materials have enabled the use of transparent walls and ceilings, flooding the fuselage with natural light. Seating areas are beautifully spacious and filled with a range of interactive technology.
When flights are running below full capacity, any unneeded seats are automatically shuffled to the rear, collapsed and hidden from view. The remaining seats are redistributed, rearranging themselves to offer everyone the maximum possible legroom. These seats can also morph to perfectly fit passengers' bodies. They can re-energise travellers with vitamin and antioxidant-enriched air, mood lighting, aromatherapy and acupressure treatments.* In the mid-section of the plane is a hi-tech zone offering a range of activities from virtual golf, to conference facilities and bar/lounge settings.
== Recreational marijuana is legal in the majority of countries ==
In the late 20th and early 21st century, a number of countries began to relax their policies on cannabis. This marked the beginning of a worldwide shift in public and governmental attitudes towards the plant. Factors driving this trend included the historic and ongoing failures of prohibition, improvements in education and scientific research into the drug, greater recognition of the economic and other benefits it could provide, as well as changing voter demographics and a more relaxed approach favoured by younger generations.
During the 2010s, an estimated 3 to 5% of the global population consumed cannabis for medical or recreational purposes, making it by far the most widely used illicit substance. Among all psychoactive drugs, it ranked behind only tobacco and alcohol in popularity.
Although illegal at the federal level, individual states of the United States began to implement their own policy reforms. California had been the first state to legalise medical use of cannabis when voters approved Proposition 215, which passed with 55.6% of the vote in 1996. Many other states followed with decriminalisation and medical legalisation in the late 1990s and 2000s.
Recreational legalisation began in 2012, with Colorado and Washington becoming the first two states allowing cannabis for non-medical uses. A total of 18 states, two territories, and the District of Columbia passed such laws over the next 10 years, with decriminalisation in another 13 states and one territory. By the end of the decade, the United States accounted for 90% of the $10 billion global trade in legal cannabis.
Outside the United States, other major developments occurred during this time. In 2013, Uruguay became the first country to legalise the cultivation, sale, distribution, and consumption of marijuana. By 2022, a total of six countries had legalised recreational use – Canada, Georgia, Malta, Mexico, South Africa, and Uruguay, plus the aforementioned states and territories of the United States, as well as the Australian Capital Territory in Australia.
Contrary to popular belief, recreational marijuana in the Netherlands did not extend to full legality at this time, with consumption and sale instead being tolerated only in licensed coffeeshops alongside the decriminalisation of personal possession.
As the 2020s progressed, the market for medical cannabis saw an eight-fold expansion, from $6.8 billion in 2020, to $53.9 billion by 2030. A majority of the world's countries had legalised the drug for medical uses by 2028.
Recreational legalisation proved to be a more gradual process, however. Only five countries allowed non-medical use by 2020. Although this figure rose to around 25 by 2030 (including the United States legalising at the federal level), it remained far below the 100+ countries allowing medical use.
Following Mexico in 2021, other countries in Latin America moved to relax their policies too – Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela. About a quarter of countries in Europe reformed their cannabis policies during this decade, mainly in the west of the continent. Australia and New Zealand followed the same trend as their antipodean counterparts. In Africa, somewhat faster changes occurred, led by South Africa, Ghana, Lesotho, Sierra Leone, and Zimbabwe, driven in large part by the "green rush" of economic opportunities.*
The Middle East and most of Asia progressed at a slower rate. Thailand had legalised medical use in 2018 and began moving to full legalisation, while India already maintained a de facto legalisation and tolerance in certain regions. But legalisation at the federal level remained a distant prospect for India. Elsewhere in Asia and the Middle East, many nations held strongly opposing views towards cannabis. Malaysia, for example, imposed a mandatory death penalty for convicted drug traffickers, legally defined as individuals possessing more than 200 g (7 oz) of cannabis. In Japan, public opinion polls showed that less than 15% of people thought the drug should be legally available.
By 2040, the number of countries allowing non-medical use of cannabis had reached 60, with attitudes shifting in many more parts of Europe, as well as Africa and Latin America. Opposition remained strong in the Middle East and Asia, however, despite some progress with decriminalisation and medical use. For a majority of the world's countries to legalise recreational cannabis, it would take until 2050.*
== Continent-wide "supergrids" provide much of the world's energy needs ==
The need for reliable, clean, cost-effective energy has led to the creation of electrical "supergrids" across much of the world. These allow nations to share power from abundant green sources and distribute it to those regions most in need. By cooperating in this way, it is possible to greatly reduce waste and to optimise power supplies on a continent-wide scale, at all times of the year.
For instance, winter gales in the North Sea can provide a surplus of wind power, which is complemented by the summer winds of Morocco and Egypt. Meanwhile, solar panels in northern Africa generate three times the electricity compared with the same panels in northern Europe, due to much greater intensity of sunlight. Up to 100 GW of power is being supplied from Africa to Europe in this way.* Similar large-scale infrastructure is now in place throughout America, Asia and other parts of the world.
Long distance transmission technology has seen major advances over the decades. Each country is connected to the grid using high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission, instead of traditional alternating current (AC) lines. This results in far greater efficiency, since DC lines have much lower electrical losses over long distances.
== China completes the largest water diversion project in history ==
The South-North Water Transfer Project – proposed almost a century ago* – is finally completed in China this year* at a cost of over $60 billion.* This becomes the largest project of its kind ever undertaken, stretching thousands of kilometres across the country.
Its main purpose is to divert water from the southern region of China to the dryer north. It is hoped that this will spur economic growth and stability in the more populous northern area, where the per capita share of regional water has declined to near-crisis levels. It consists of an extensive system of tunnels, dams, reservoirs and canals, all connecting and diverting water from China's largest rivers – including the Yangtze, Yellow and Hai River. At its peak capacity, the entire system can move nearly 45 billion cubic metres of water annually.
First proposed by Mao Zedong in 1952, the project was officially approved in 2002. The first stage of construction, the 717 mile (1,155 km) long eastern route, was completed in 2013. This begins near the mouth of the Yangtze, crosses through the Yellow River and ends at the Beijing-Tianjin Metropolitan area within the Bohai Economic Rim. This brings much-needed water to one of the largest and most high density conurbations in the world. Along with the construction of new tunnels and pumping stations, the Grand Canal was upgraded in order to accommodate the increased flow of water.* Adding to this is the central route, completed in 2014. This brings water from the Danjiangkou and Three Gorges reservoirs, as well as the Han River, north to Beijing and its neighbouring provinces. This totals 787 miles (1,267 km) in length and by 2030 was diverting over 13 billion cubic metres of water annually. The third and final stage to be completed is the 310 mile (500 km) western route. This involved working on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau – from 3,000–5,000m above sea level – and posed major engineering and climatic challenges. This route diverts water from the headwaters of the Yangtze to the parched eastern plateaus.
Like the Three Gorges Dam before it, the South-North Water Transfer Project receives heavy criticism.* In addition to environmental damage through mining, construction and pollution, there are worries about the increased potential of floods in certain areas and droughts in others. Also of concern are the hundreds of thousands of people displaced from their homes during construction. Meanwhile, other diversion projects in the south have provoked conflicts with neighbouring countries.*
Many doubted that China had enough water to begin with to make the project worthwhile. Indeed, by the 2050s, southern China itself is beginning to feel the effects of melting Himalayan glaciers and drying conditions. As a result, the water diversion project rarely operates at full capacity, primarily acting as a way to evenly distribute water around China, easing tensions between the inland and coastal regions. While of some benefit to China now, in the coming years, even projects of this magnitude will be insufficient to prevent serious water shortages.* Longer term, only desalination will be able to save the country.
= 2051 =
== The U.S. population reaches 400 million ==
By the early 2050s, the population of the United States has reached 400 million.* This follows earlier milestones in 1915 (100 million), 1968 (200 million) and 2007 (300 million). In terms of world rankings, the country remains unchanged from the previous hundred years, in third place behind China and India. However, its share of the global population has decreased from 6.3% in 1950, to 4.6% in 2000 and 3.9% now.
The U.S. in 2051 is more racially and ethnically diverse than ever, white people having declined in number and become a minority.* Those of Hispanic origin have nearly doubled since 2015 and continue to be the fastest growing ethnicity. Black, Asian and other minority groups have also increased, though at a much slower rate than Hispanics.*
The average U.S. citizen is also older, with a far larger percentage of people now aged 65 or above. Even the youngest Gen X-ers are now in their 70s, while the youngest Millennials have entered middle age. The number of centenarians (people aged 100 or over) has risen more than four-fold, from 85,000 in 2015 to 380,000 in 2051.* Alongside a jobs crisis, resulting from automation and technological unemployment, this has put a huge burden on the working-age population – necessitating major reforms in taxation and social welfare. After a number of failed attempts, a form of universal basic income (UBI) has now finally been adopted by most states, though the U.S. was late in this process compared to most other nations in the developed world.
America remains a majority Christian nation, but has seen a nearly 10% increase in those unaffiliated with any organised religion. The Muslim population has increased too, but remains a small segment overall.* In addition, new religions and cults have formed, often based on worship of AI, the 'Singularity' or certain technological niches. Recent advances in mainstream brain-computer interfaces, nanotechnology-based drugs and/or virtual reality have made it easier for leaders to manipulate vulnerable followers, a fact brought into sharper focus by a related government scandal around this time.
As in the rest of the world, urbanisation has continued to increase, with more and more people living in cities. Across the country, enormous "megaregions" have now emerged, producing metropolitan areas that often overlap and stretch across several states.* The biggest of these – Great Lakes – has grown by over 28%, from a population of around 55.5 million in 2010, to more than 71.2 million. The Northeast (encompassing Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C.) has expanded by over 35%, from 52.3 million in 2010 to 70.8 million now. California has seen even faster growth of between 50% (north) and 61% (south) – but remains split into these distinct halves. If combined, the two megaregions would now have a total population of 60.5 million people.
Most of these megaregions are now linked by high-speed rail, which includes a number of 'hyperloop' routes, breaking down geographical barriers and enabling people to commute from longer distances than in earlier decades. However, America still lacks the kind of extensive networks enjoyed by the likes of Europe and East Asia.
Despite many advances in technology, the U.S. remains a deeply divided country, riven with social and economic problems. The level of income inequality, already a serious concern at the start of the century, has widened even more, as the rate of return on capital continues to exceed the rate of economic growth over the long term.* The first trillionaires have begun to appear in Forbes and other rich lists.* This ever-increasing concentration of wealth in the hands of the upper 1% has further eroded the middle class. Alongside a perpetual cycle of left-right parties offering the same false promises, little has fundamentally changed in American politics. A general apathy has maintained low election turnouts, now averaging just 40% or so (compared with 50% at the start of the 21st century and 60% during the mid-20th).
Recent decades have seen an intensification of the phenomenon known as "truth decay": an increasing disagreement about facts.* This trend has been driven by ongoing polarisation (both political and demographic), as well as the Internet, social media, virtual reality and other technologies, which have accelerated the spread of disinformation. Fake video scenes, for example – indistinguishable from real life, and even made interactive through strong AI – are now so cheap, accessible and easily produced that it has eroded the trust in formerly respected sources of factual information, blurring the line between opinion and fact. All of these trends are further harming civil discourse, causing disengagement and alienation, political paralysis and uncertainty. Americans are routinely bombarded with information overload, often highly personalised and tailored to their individual circumstances in ways that would appear unsettling and surreal to observers from earlier decades. More and more people feel disillusioned by what they see as a hyper-commercialised, intrusive, manipulative society.
With oil, gas and coal no longer playing a significant role in the U.S. economy, the lobbying power of fossil fuel companies has essentially disappeared. However, new lobbyists have taken their place – such as biotech and robotics companies, seeking to change regulations and monopolise their industries. The explosion of genetic upgrades, implants, beauty treatments and other personal tech has become yet another driver of inequality.
The impact of these various trends has been felt most strongly in the southern 'Bible Belt' states. These are hampered by debt and poor economic growth, exacerbated by worsening environmental conditions.* Many people are now flocking to the north, which is more politically stable. Some of those already living in the north are moving into Canada, which has even better long-term prospects. The U.S. population, as a whole, continues to increase for the rest of the century, though at a slower rate than before.
== An interstellar radio message arrives at Gliese 777 ==
The Yevpatoria RT-70, located at the Center for Deep Space Communications in Ukraine, was among the largest radio telescopes in the world, with a 70m antenna diameter. On 1st July 1999, it beamed a noise-resistant message named "Cosmic Call 1" into space. This was sent towards Gliese 777, a yellow subgiant star, 52 light-years away in the constellation of Cygnus. At least two extrasolar planets were known to be present in this system. In April 2051, the message arrives at its destination, for any potential alien civilisations to hear and decode it.
== Britain holds its centennial national exhibition ==
A centennial national exhibition is held in the UK, in keeping with the precedent set by the Great Exhibition of 1851* and the 1951 Festival of Britain.* The opening ceremony is attended by King William V, now aged 69.
== UK vehicle plates run out of numbers ==
The UK first introduced vehicle number plates on 1st January 1904, as part of the Motor Car Act. This law required all motor vehicles to be entered on an official vehicle register, and to carry alphanumeric plates. The government passed the Act in order that vehicles could be easily traced in the event of an accident, contravention of the law or any other incident.
The original system had a one or two-letter county code, followed by a sequence number between 1 and 9,999, e.g., AH72. The available codes began to run out after a few decades, necessitating a new system in 1932. This placed a serial letter before the code, but had sequence numbers run only to 999. Another new scheme emerged in 1963, maintaining three letters but with a fourth as an age identifier at the end, e.g. an "A" suffix for 1963, "B" for 1964, etc. A lack of combinations led to the Prefix system beginning in 1983, which simply moved the age identifier to the start, e.g., A21 BCD.
The UK introduced a fifth system on 1st September 2001. This consisted of two letters identifying the region of registration, two numbers denoting the age (changing twice a year), and three random letters, e.g., BD51 SMR.
For plates issued between March and August, the age identifier would be the last two digits of the year (e.g., '21' for 2021). For plates issued between September and February of the following year, the age identifier would be the last two digits of the year plus 50 (e.g., '71' for plates issued between September 2021 and February 2022). These combinations finally run out during 2051,* requiring the introduction of a sixth vehicle registration system.
== The Suburban Rail Loop is operational in Melbourne ==
The Suburban Rail Loop is Australia's largest ever transport project. It consists of a 90 km (56 mi) line running through suburban Melbourne and surrounding the central business district (CBD). The loop is designed to help commuters connect easily to major suburban hubs and amenities such as hospitals, shopping centres, universities, and the airport. The service connects almost all existing railway lines via one new route through middle suburbs, thus removing the necessity to travel into the city and out again as per the older hub and spoke rail network.
The line connects the existing station at Cheltenham with other existing stations at Clayton, Glen Waverley, Box Hill, Heidelberg, Reservoir, Fawkner, Broadmeadows, Sunshine and Werribee. It also links to new stations, built in areas that were long promised rail connections, including Monash University, Burwood, Doncaster, Bundoora and Melbourne Airport.
The Suburban Rail Loop was first proposed in August 2018 at a cost of AU$50 billion and received strong public support. Like many government projects, however, it inevitably went over budget.* Construction started by 2022, with sections progressively opening. By the early 2050s, the full line is operational and handling 400,000 passengers a day – relieving pressure on existing city-bound trains, while also taking 200,000 vehicles off congested roads.**
== Launch of the X-ray Great Observatory ==
The X-ray Great Observatory is the third and final project in a trio of long-term, next-generation space telescopes developed by NASA. It follows the earlier Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) and Far-Infrared (FIR) Great Observatory launched in 2041 and 2047, respectively. Its completion means that astronomers now have broad coverage of the electromagnetic spectrum in a way that resembles the revolutionary leap in capabilities offered by the Hubble, Spitzer and Chandra space telescopes.
An earlier concept, the Lynx X-ray Observatory,* had been proposed during the 2020 Astronomy and Astrophysics Decadal Survey. Elements of that design would later appear in a finalised version, known as the X-ray Great Observatory. Following 30 years of research and development,* the spacecraft is now a reality and in operation at the L2 Sun-Earth Lagrange point, around 1.5 million km from Earth.
The X-ray Great Observatory is by far the most powerful telescope of its kind ever built, enabling orders of magnitude improvements. It provides a 100-fold increase in sensitivity, 800 times the survey speed, and 16 times the field of view compared with NASA's previous flagship X-ray space telescope, Chandra. Alongside its mirror assembly (containing 12 concentric meta-shells, vs. 8 for Chandra) are three state-of-the-art instruments – a High Definition X-ray Imager, Microcalorimeter, and Grating Spectrometer.*
Gas hotter than a few hundred thousand Kelvin shines brightest in X-rays. The main areas of study are therefore black hole accretion physics, the large-scale structure of the Universe, galaxy formation and evolution, and stellar life cycles. Some of the earliest known black holes are observed, and matter falling onto these objects is detectable in exquisite detail. Data from these interactions can provide clues as to why supermassive black holes in the very early Universe grew to more than a billion solar masses in such a brief period of time. New insights are also provided into Sagittarius A* at the centre of our own Milky Way galaxy.
Many previously hidden neutron stars are revealed by the observatory's extreme sensitivity. Its microcalorimeter can also generate 3D maps of dozens of supernova remnants, including those in the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds, the largest of the satellite dwarf galaxies orbiting the Milky Way.
Studies of exoplanets are also possible. The observatory can detect X-ray emissions as markers of young stars in active star-forming regions, study stellar coronae in detail, and determine the impact of stellar X-ray and extreme ultraviolet flux and winds on the habitability of planetary systems.
Hyper-sharp images are possible thanks to a new optics design, which can maintain sub-arcsecond spatial resolution out to ten arcminutes. While Chandra required almost nine days to photograph a supernova remnant, the X-ray Great observatory can produce even sharper and more stunning images, over a much larger field of view, in just a few hours. Like the other New Great Observatories, it remains in service until the 2070s.*
= 2052 =
== The biggest supermoon of the 21st century ==
A so-called "supermoon" occurs when a full moon coincides with a lunar perigee – the closest approach of the Moon in its elliptical orbit around Earth. Such events produce the largest apparent size of the lunar disk as seen from Earth, making it appear 15% larger and 30% brighter than during apogee (its most distant point from Earth). This provides great opportunities for astronomers and photographers. Particularly dramatic supermoons occur when a full moon and lunar perigee also happen when Earth is at perihelion (its closest point to the Sun for the year).
On the morning of 14th November 2016, the distance between the centre of the Moon and Earth was 221,524 miles (356,509 km), the closest they had been together during a full moon since 1948. The Moon would not appear this large again until 25th November 2034. The closest supermoon of the century occurs on 6th December 2052.* Notable supermoons are also observed in 2070, 2088 and 2098.
= 2053 =
== Genetically engineered "designer babies" for the rich ==
The ability to manipulate DNA has come a long way since its discovery in 1953. A century on, wealthy parents now have the option of creating "perfect" babies in the laboratory. This is done by picking and choosing their best hereditary traits. Gender, height, skin, hair and eye colour – along with hundreds of other characteristics – can be programmed into the embryo prior to birth. The embryo is then grown in an artificial uterus.* The most advanced (and controversial) techniques involve manipulating the brain to improve the child's intelligence, behaviour and personality. Many conservative and religious groups decry what they see as the commercialisation of the human body.
== Australia becomes the first country to eliminate cervical cancer ==
Cervical cancer is a cancer arising from the cervix, the lower part of the uterus in the human female reproductive system. The first known description of the illness was made by the Greek physician, Hippocrates, in 400 BCE. However, it was not formally identified as a sexually transmitted disease until 1834 and surgical treatments were not available until 1898. By the early 1900s, it was the biggest cancer killer of women in some countries including the USA.
In 1943, the Pap test was first generalised as a procedure, enabling doctors to detect cellular abnormalities that might be cancerous and begin treatment before they could spread. Over the following decades, the test was credited with driving down cervical cancer death rates in much of the developed world.
A link between human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer was identified in the 1970s when German virologist, Harald zur Hausen, demonstrated the presence of HPV DNA in cervical cancer cells and genital warts. However, it was not until the mid-1990s that the primary role of HPV in the development of cervical cancer was definitively confirmed. Subsequently, HPV was identified in 99.7% of cervical cancer specimens worldwide. Zur Hausen's breakthrough in medical science was important enough to earn him the Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine in 2008.
In the mid-1980s, an HPV vaccine was developed, in parallel, by Georgetown University Medical Center, the University of Rochester, the University of Queensland in Australia, and the U.S. National Cancer Institute. In 2006, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the first preventive HPV vaccine, under the trade name Gardasil. This was 99% effective in protecting against the most common strains of HPV that caused cancer in women. Other versions of the vaccine became available in subsequent years, protecting against various strains.
While progress was being made in richer countries, cervical cancer remained a significant problem globally. During the early 21st century, it was both the fourth most common cancer and fourth most common cause of death from cancer in women. In 2012, an estimated 528,000 cases were reported and 266,000 deaths – about 8% of the total cases and total deaths from cancer. About 70% of cervical cancers occurred in developing countries and it was a leading cause of cancer death for women in low-income nations.
Australia was among the countries at the forefront of the fight against cervical cancer. In 2007, its government began a school-based vaccine program that virtually eliminated new infections of HPV for those who were immunised as young teenagers. In 2008, the Australian Cervical Cancer Foundation (ACCF) was founded with a goal to promote women's health "by eliminating cervical cancer and enabling treatment for women with cervical cancer and related health issues in Australia and in developing countries." Ian Frazer, co-inventor of the Gardasil vaccine, was a scientific advisor to the ACCF. The country had also developed a world-class screening program that was 100% effective at preventing cervical cancer for women who fully committed to it. A new vaccine was introduced in 2018 to target more virus strains of HPV that caused cancer.
In the 2010s, less than 1,000 cases of cervical cancer were being reported in Australia each year. This figure, alongside the mortality rate, continued to fall, reaching negligible numbers in subsequent decades. By the early 2050s, cervical cancer has been essentially eliminated in Australia – the first country to achieve this milestone – thanks to the combination of highly effective screening and vaccination programs.**
Following the example of Australia, universal testing and immunisation programs are now ubiquitous in the developed and most of the developing world, providing hope that the illness can be eliminated globally by the end of the century.
= 2054 =
== Mission to interstellar object 'Oumuamua ==
Discovered in 2017, 'Oumuamua became the first known interstellar object to be detected passing through the Solar System. Studies of the trajectory placed it some 33 million km (21 million mi; 0.22 AU) from Earth, and already heading away from the Sun. Astronomers noted its unusual shape – like that of a cigar – measuring somewhere between 100 and 1,000 metres in length. It had a red colour and lacked any sort of coma.
Its high speed, relative to the Sun, proved to be key in determining an extrasolar origin, although the exact planetary system it had travelled from, and the duration of its long excursion remained unknown. Future extrapolations of 'Oumuamua's path showed it would never be captured into a solar orbit, so would eventually leave the Solar System and continue into interstellar space.
A small number of astronomers suggested that 'Oumuamua could be a product of alien technology, based on six anomalous properties that made it unusual and unlike any comets or asteroids seen before. However, the scientific evidence in support of this hypothesis proved to be weak. In 2019, astronomers discovered a second interstellar object, called 2I/Borisov.*
The Initiative for Interstellar Studies (i4is) revealed Project Lyra,* a set of mission concepts for reaching 'Oumuamua, as well as 2I/Borisov, and other yet to be discovered interstellar objects. Early proposed methods involved using near-term technologies for a solar Oberth manoeuvre (SOM), taking a probe close to the Sun and relying on its radiation pressure to obtain a very high velocity, with a light sail.
However, an alternative proposal later emerged for a "Jupiter Oberth manoeuvre" (JOM), which calculations showed would be even more efficient at generating the high speeds needed to catch up with such a distant object. Using the gas giant for a reverse gravitational assist would also reduce the spacecraft's mass, as a heat shield would not be necessary. Researchers found that a JOM could shave more than 10 AU off the journey length, while also providing more time to observe the object during a probe's closest approach. It would fly past at 18 km/s (64,800 km/h; 40,265 mph), rather than 30 km/s (108,000 km/h; 67,108 mph) for a spacecraft relying on a SOM.*
These advantages – and the rare opportunity to explore such a unique object – gave Project Lyra credibility with space agencies and private interests, enabling it to attract funding and progress onto the next research and development phases. After passing through the selection process, mission planners took advantage of a launch window in 2028.
The probe swings by Venus (2028), before heading back to Earth (2029), performing a deep space manoeuvre at 2.2 AU in 2030, returning to Earth (2031) and then heading to Jupiter (2032), where it accelerates towards 'Oumuamua. After a total journey time of 26 years, it arrives in 2054,* having covered a distance of more than 200 AU, or about quadruple the aphelion of Pluto. This mission provides the first ever close-range study of material from beyond the Solar System, generating major scientific returns. It also helps to resolve the earlier questions that arose, such as its system of origin. By now, a few other long-range missions are underway as humanity continues to extend its reach and capabilities in space.
== Rainfall intensity has increased by 20% ==
As the world warms, the increased evaporation is putting greater amounts of water vapour into the atmosphere. Rainfall intensity rises by 7% for each degree of additional warming.* With temperatures approaching 3°C (5.4°F) above the 20th century average, the most extreme rainfall events are now 20% more intense than before. Dramatic increases in surface runoff, peak river flows and flash flooding are being experienced around the world – exacerbating soil erosion and putting huge pressure on drainage and sewage systems. This additional rainfall is a particular problem in the tropics and poor regions with insufficient infrastructure or flood defences.
= 2055 =
== Spaceflight has taken a leap forward ==
Environmental catastrophes, overpopulation, war and other crises have made humanity painfully aware of the limitations on its home planet. Many now believe that exploring and settling space could be a way to alleviate some of Earth's immediate problems. As a result of this, spaceflight has advanced considerably since the beginning of the century. National governments are able to participate to a certain extent, but huge levels of debt and economic stagnation have left the bulk of the effort to private enterprises and wealthy individuals.
The cost of launching material into space has declined considerably by now.* Advances in materials technology, greatly improved fuel efficiency for rockets* and the proliferation of single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft* have all contributed to this fall in prices. Automated design evolution, facilitated through artificial intelligence networks (enabling rapid synthesis of optimal design requirements) has also played a role. This is allowing much greater frequency of flights, as well as heavier payloads.
One result of this has been a rapid growth in space tourism, with journeys available to even middle-income citizens. For the super-rich, even excursions to the Moon's surface are now possible. Lunar bases, already established in previous decades, have been expanded. In addition to room for tourists, new scientific modules have been added with greenhouses, ice harvesting stations for water, and solar arrays built from lunar regolith. Corporate interests are now looking to exploit the Moon commercially. Though human presence is still confined to the poles, a number of prospecting missions are underway in preparation for mining operations.* Other long-term plans include solar power stations capable of beaming energy directly to Earth. In the more distant future, these may expand to completely encircle the Moon.*
Asteroid mining has now evolved into a huge industry, with major firms competing in the business.** Thanks to progress in rocket technology and robotics, countless rendezvous with near-Earth and main belt asteroids have been conducted. A wide range of metals and minerals – including gold, platinum, nickel, iron, zinc, antimony, copper, cobalt and phosphorus – are being recovered.* Some of these materials became so rare on Earth that demand made them exceedingly valuable. This drove accelerated exploration. Swarms of automated probes are now involved in prospecting and mining on a constant basis.
Most asteroids are processed in situ, as opposed to Earth orbit, due to fears of an accidental impact. For now, manoeuvring larger asteroids is seen as expensive and unnecessary in any case. Water-rich asteroids are particularly useful as the constituent hydrogen and oxygen can be turned into rocket fuel. As part of the commercialisation of space, numerous fuel depots are in place around the Earth-Moon system and Lagrange points. These are further reducing the cost of spaceflight, with most ships only required to carry enough fuel to get into orbit. Longer and more complex missions are possible with supplies available en route.*
Asteroid mining has proven to be one of the great confirmations of people's hopes for outer space. A single rock just a mile or so in diameter may yield more platinum group metals than has ever been mined on Earth, and more fuel than every rocket launch in history.* The resources now being added to the global economy are helping to meet demand in many areas. However, significant portions of raw materials are being diverted to off-planet projects including the construction of new space stations. As a result, various non-profit groups have sprung up, aiming to ensure that poorer nations can benefit from space, not just the countries and rich individuals that can afford to go. The lucrative nature of this business and its growing influence on Earth has led to the passing of major new regulations, antitrust and monopoly laws.*
Ongoing conflicts around the world have spurred military powers to new heights. Developed nations are now turning to space to gain the advantage in next generation warfare.* The USA is prolific in this regard. In earlier decades, international treaties prevented the militarisation of space. However, some of the more powerful nations have moved projects forward in secret. In any case, the volatile and rapidly evolving political climate has led to new agreements being introduced.
A whole new dimension to war is emerging, in parallel with the commercialisation of space. The USA, for example, has established a comprehensive network of spy satellites, each equipped with a wide array of sensors able to observe people and objects on the ground with astounding resolution and detail. AI controls this system, automatically tracking known persons of interest and monitoring for suspicious activity. If enemy actions on the ground cannot be rationalised by the AI, government and military personnel are notified of it. Now controlling the most advanced and intelligent surveillance system in the world, America has regained some of its lost influence on the world stage.
Naturally, other countries object to what they see as a potential for abuse of power. Alongside the spy satellites are manned space stations, placed strategically in geosynchronous orbit. These act as command centres, able to view battles from above in real time while giving directions to forces on the ground. Notably, they allow the military to organise and deploy squadrons of autonomous aircraft and robots. They also ensure that there are repair crews constantly on call, in the event of spy satellites or other craft malfunctioning. In today's hi-tech, fast-moving wars, communication and information are of unparalleled importance. These stations act as intelligence centres of sorts, and as such become prized targets for enemy forces. Knowing this, no expense is spared when it comes to advanced shielding and warning systems.
The first space-based weapons systems are also in place. Most incorporate traditional missile capabilities, but other, more experimental systems are being utilised. One such weapon is an orbital kinetic bombardment platform operated by the US.* This consists of two satellites in parallel orbits. The first provides a target and communication function, taking instructions from the ground on potential enemies. The second satellite is armed with several 20-foot long, specially reinforced tungsten rods, each complete with tail fins and an internal guidance computer. Upon instruction, a rod is released over a ground target and begins to fall. Using nothing but gravity and pure force, these missiles can impact with the power of a tactical nuclear warhead – only without the deadly fallout. Almost no bunker is safe, as the weapon lands with utterly devastating force, penetrating deep underground. Several problems needed to be overcome before this system was operational, such as the cost of lifting the materials into space and creating rods of sufficient strength to withstand the energies involved. Years of experimentation have finally yielded a metal alloy tough enough to be used. This project – the ultimate in bunker busting technology – is highly secretive and only tested in the deserts of the American southwest.
Orbital solar power, since its introduction nearly 15 years ago, has grown considerably.** Various new stations are now in place, able to provide continuous power to Earth. In addition to commercial power production, orbital solar has been found to have military applications. Modern armies no longer require a fixed source of power, with energy beamed down to even the most remote locations. Naturally, these solar power systems, as well as much of the other activity in space, increase the danger of space junk. However, genuine solutions are now finally appearing that can eliminate such debris once and for all. One option is the use of ground-based lasers, which move larger pieces into decaying orbits to eventually burn in the atmosphere,* while massive aerogel nets guided by satellites can sweep up the finer particles in orbit.*
AI and robotics have played a major role in opening up space.* Automated construction of spaceships and supplies is another area of reduced expense, while AI is used by asteroid mining companies to operate their wide range of robotic explorers and miners. In general, the increasingly complex and chaotic network of spacecraft now in place has necessitated the use of strong AI to coordinate operations. Many jobs previously filled by humans have now been given over exclusively to robots and computer programs. Spaceships are almost never piloted by human hands, with everything from docking to refueling to landing completely automated. Naturally, many passengers view this level of AI control with trepidation, cultural fears still being a part of space travel.* Farther away from Earth, numerous robotic probes, each equipped with their own AI, are exploring the planets, moons and asteroids of the outer Solar System. These are yielding unprecedented amounts of empirical data about the nature of these bodies and the early history of the Solar System.
Space-based telescopes have seen phenomenal improvements over the decades. Exponential progress has led to telescopic power increasing by a factor of over 100,000.* Thanks to this astounding rate of advancement, it is now possible to view extrasolar planets in close detail.
The number of known planets beyond our Solar System – about 800 in 2012 – has grown to 13 million by 2055.* Thousands of these bodies have been observed in the habitable "Goldilocks" zones of their respective star systems, including a number of Earth-like planets with liquid water oceans and active hydrological cycles. The possibility of finding alien life expands greatly during this time, as does the hope of achieving contact with intelligent civilisations. Despite the huge progress in this field, however, humans have still barely scratched the surface of the Milky Way.*
Recent progress has been achieved with antimatter propulsion – making human travel to the outer Solar System a real possibility in the coming years.* A permanent base on Mars is in the late planning stages, set to be established by a consortium of national governments and corporate interests. Longer-term projects are now being considered, with international talks being held over the future construction of a space elevator, to be located on the equator. Corporations are also looking to the massive, untapped wealth of the gas giants and outer Solar System as an eventual goal. By all accounts, private interests are driving a new era of space exploration.* Rapid progress in science and technology, combined with surging demand for resources, imply that humanity is well on its way to becoming a space-faring civilization.***
== The vast majority of countries have achieved democracy ==
The on-going spread of information – aided by mobile telecommunications, social media and other technology – continues to nurture democracy. The vast majority of countries now have free and fair elections.*
However, this general upward trend has begun to plateau in recent decades. Climate change is now having a significant impact on regional stability, particularly in Africa and the Middle East, where concerns over scarcity of resources have created conditions allowing dictators and authoritarian governments to make a comeback.
In any case, a number of cultures are simply more compatible with monarchies, theocracies and autocracies at the present time. These parochial nations will remain undemocratic for some time to come.
== Global population is reaching a plateau ==
The global population is stabilising at between 9 and 10 billion.* Most of the recent growth has occurred in the developing world. However, better education along with improved access to contraception, family planning and other birth control methods is now markedly reducing the number of children per couple. Information technology has played a major role in boosting literacy levels and spreading knowledge to the world's poor.
The global population is also getting older, putting a huge strain on government welfare systems and employment. More than a fifth of the planet is aged over 60 now* – and with so many breakthroughs in medicine, this trend will only continue.
More than two-thirds of people live in urban areas by this time,* compared with 50% in 2010,* and there are vast, sprawling megacities in all corners of the globe. In the very densest parts of the world, the tallest skyscrapers reach thousands of metres in height, are occupied by millions of people, and are effectively cities in their own right with self-sufficient energy and food production. Many residents within these towers spend almost their whole lives in these buildings, with little need or want to venture outside.
The population of the USA has reached nearly 450 million now (up from 309 million in 2010), with Hispanics doubling their share of the population to 30% and Asians going from 5% to 9%. Non-Hispanic whites have become a minority, with their share dropping to below 45%.* They made up 85% of the population in 1960. Due to climate change, living standards have been highest in the northern states, which have better access to water and are generally more stable. California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas have seen huge declines in wealth and influence.
Despite recent advances in energy, food production and other technology, there are still widespread conflicts around the globe – due to a rapidly worsening environment, coupled with a host of socio-political issues as the world struggles to adopt a more sustainable economic paradigm. Huge shantytowns have formed in some countries, with millions of people displaced. The worst-affected regions are so destitute that they have been reclassified as "fourth world" countries.* Desperate attempts are now underway to sequester carbon from the atmosphere in the hope of reversing the effects of global warming.
= 2056 =
== Japan's population falls below 100 million ==
For most of the 20th century, Japan experienced high population growth. The post-war miracle saw its booming economy catapulted into second place behind only the USA by the 1980s. This period of rapid expansion ended with the bursting of the asset price bubble in 1991. A so-called "Lost Decade" followed and persisted into the 21st century. Japan experienced stagnation both financially and demographically.
By 2010, the country's population had peaked at 128 million and begun a gradual, inexorable decline. Several factors contributed to this long-term trend that would define Japan's place in the world for decades to come.
Firstly, Japan's fertility rate had been falling for many years, and during the early 21st century became one of the lowest in the world. The average number of children born per woman stood at just 1.34 by 2020, well below the replacement level of 2.1.
Japan also had one of the highest life expectancies in the world, and as a result, a rapidly aging population. The proportion of elderly people aged 65 and above continued to rise, while the number of young people of reproductive age decreased. In some isolated rural areas, this demographic change became so damaging that entire communities disappeared.
Economic and social factors played a role too. High education and employment opportunities for women, urbanisation, and changes in family values led to a decrease in marriage rates and a delay in childbirth. Additionally, Japan had historically followed restrictive immigration policies, which limited the number of foreigners entering the country to work and live.
These factors presented significant challenges for Japan's economy, social welfare system, and future prospects. By 2040, the country had reached an annual loss of nearly 750,000 people. By 2056, its total population has fallen below 100 million, a level last seen in the 1960s.*
Despite some attempts at policy changes – including relaxed immigration rules – this overall trend continues for the rest of the century, with Japan struggling to achieve a "managed decline" as it deals with the inevitability of its situation and a waning influence on the world stage. Among the solutions being introduced is greater use of robots to keep the wheels of society turning. Japan's love for and experience of robotics (perhaps more than any other country) and its already well-established industry is helpful in this regard, mitigating some of the impacts it would otherwise have felt.
= 2057 =
== Collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) ==
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), part of the global thermohaline circulation (THC), is a large system of ocean currents. Driven by differences in temperature and salinity, it acts as a conveyor belt, bringing warm surface water from the tropics to the north, which then sinks to greater depths as colder and heavier salt water before returning south.
Throughout modern history, the AMOC had been a vital component of the global climate system. It maintained stable temperatures, giving Western Europe – including Britain with its latitude of around 55°N – relatively mild winters. It regulated rainfall patterns, such as the monsoons in West Africa, and supported marine ecosystems by distributing nutrients and oxygen.
During a period known as the Younger Dryas, which occurred circa 12,900 to 11,700 years BP, the AMOC experienced a weakening. Freshwater released from the melting of North American ice sheets, as well as the Greenland ice sheet and others, contributed to a reduction in salinity and density of the surface waters in the North Atlantic. The resulting disruption to ocean currents led to a slowdown of the AMOC, which caused Europe and North America to become much colder, by as much as 10°C (18°F) in some regions. Primarily affecting the Northern Hemisphere, this event lasted for 1,200 years and impacted early human populations, altering habitats and food availability.
During the modern era, scientists began to observe a similar weakening of the AMOC, this time caused by human-induced climate change, particularly the increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet.
The "fingerprint" of the AMOC's changing status could be traced back to the 1850s, when sea surface temperature anomalies first began to emerge within the subpolar gyre, although these deviations only became obvious much later. As the 20th century progressed, researchers detected more early-warning signals in water temperature and current data, such as increased variance (indicating a loss of resilience in the system) and autocorrelation (a critical slowing down).
By 2015, a large temperature anomaly – known in scientific circles as the "cold blob" – could be seen forming to the south of Greenland, where freshwater poured from land into the ocean.*
By the early 2020s, the AMOC had slowed by 15% compared to the mid-20th century,* its slowest point for at least 1,600 years,* and seemed to be trending towards a collapse at some point in the future. Researchers found its decline to be approximately 0.5 sverdrups (a million cubic metres per second, the standard unit for ocean circulation) per year, 10 times as fast as predicted by earlier climate models.
Indeed, previous studies by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found little or no risk of the AMOC undergoing a collapse before 2100. Following the appearance of the cold blob, however, subsequent research concluded that the IPCC had underestimated this potential.* One notable study in 2023 predicted with 95% confidence that such an event would occur at some point between 2025 and 2095, with a most likely date of 2057.*
Anomalies of temperature and current within the subpolar gyre continued into the 2030s and beyond. This AMOC fingerprint now indicated a severe loss of resilience in the system, with increasingly wild variations, in contrast to the stable and higher-frequency oscillations of the 19th and early 20th centuries.
Abrupt and non-linear changes began to emerge in the 2050s, portending a catastrophe in the near future. Today, in 2057, a complete shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is underway.*
The slowdown and collapse of the AMOC is one of the biggest, most devastating climate tipping points of the 21st century. Not only does it radically alter the climate of northwest Europe, it also disrupts many interlinked systems around the world.*
Although the global average temperature rise has recently surpassed 2°C,* a somewhat paradoxical development is occurring in some countries. Due to the loss of heat from the tropics – formerly delivered by the AMOC – parts of Britain and Scandinavia are now seeing exceptionally cold winters, far more reminiscent of the same latitudes in Canada, with temperatures plunging by several degrees Celsius.* The same reduction in warmth is seen in the high Arctic north of the Canadian Archipelago, as well as Greenland. In Western European countries, such as France, Germany, and Switzerland, the drop in temperature is less dramatic but still substantial at between 2 and 3°C (3.6–5.4°F). This change offsets much of the trend in global warming, although the benefit is relatively minor in the context of the many other aspects of climate change. Eastern Canada, meanwhile, is cooled by 1 to 2°C (1.8–3.6°F).
While some northerly parts of the planet are cooling, the Southern Hemisphere is now seeing increased heat. Latin America and the West African coast are being devastated by catastrophic additional warming of 2 to 3°C (3.6–5.4°F). Alongside this, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has been shifted from just north of the equator to just south, resulting in double the usual precipitation at regions near 15° S latitude. At the same degree latitude north, precipitation levels have now decreased.
Due to the interconnectedness of climate systems, the collapsing AMOC has many ripple effects, extending to other parts of the world. Its variations can worsen the monsoons of India as well as West Africa, for example, and influence the atmospheric conditions contributing to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the eastern tropical Pacific. There are even downstream effects on regions as distant as the Antarctic, where shifts in ocean salinity and heat distribution carried from the north can potentially impact sea ice extent and the stability of ice shelves.
Since it can no longer be transported to the Arctic Circle, warm water is now "piling up" in vast volumes along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States, contributing to a step change in sea level rise. New York and other cities on the coast are now preparing major flood defences. Conversely, the southern tips of South America and Australia are seeing a slight reduction in sea levels.
The British Isles – consisting of England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Ireland, and nearly 200 smaller inhabited islands – are among the regions most seriously affected by the collapsing of the AMOC. Formerly a haven of relative stability, this part of the world is now undergoing significant political, economic and social disruption, with a semi-permanent state of emergency caused by extreme cold weather. Due to government cutbacks, the United Kingdom has fallen decades behind its target for home insulation* and energy efficiency, leaving it poorly prepared. To avoid thousands of excess deaths each winter, the use of "warm banks" is expanded for poorer and vulnerable groups, in public spaces such as community centres, churches, libraries, and art galleries.*
The impacts on food availability are less severe than they might have been in earlier decades, thanks to diversification and a rapid scaling up of alternative sources of production. This includes precision fermentation, cultured meats, hydroponics, and other indoor techniques. However, much of the world still relies on traditional crop growing and livestock farming, now under severe strain from climate change. Many overseas food products are therefore becoming unaffordable or subject to protectionism, as exporting nations struggle to feed their own people.
The United Kingdom and Ireland – which last had self-sufficiency in domestically-made food in the early 1800s – are now having to consider a reintroduction of food rationing for the first time since the early 1950s. In London, the River Thames is often completely frozen over for several weeks in winter, for the first time since 1814. This event had previously occurred during a period known as the Little Ice Age.*
The impacts of the AMOC's collapse go beyond just climatic changes. Human migration patterns are dramatically altered. As people from affected regions seek more hospitable climates or escape collapsing economies, Europe in particular faces an unprecedented influx of refugees. This mass movement is among the biggest challenges of the late 2050s.
== Smart clothing is a trillion-dollar industry ==
"Smart" clothing and electronic textiles (or e-textiles) came to public attention in the opening years of the 21st century, with various items of apparel being demonstrated at the research and development stage, or as early consumer products. This form of wearable technology offered the potential to enhance a user's everyday experiences in ways that traditional fabrics could not.
Initially targeted primarily at health and fitness enthusiasts, smart clothing gradually expanded into other areas – including medicine and patient monitoring, fashion, entertainment and gaming/virtual reality, workplace applications and military uses.
It could generally be divided into two main categories: aesthetic and performance enhancing. Aesthetic examples included fabrics that lit up and fabrics able to change colour. Some of these fabrics gathered energy from the environment by harnessing vibrations, sound, or heat. Others worked by embedding the fabric with electronics to power it. Performance enhancing textiles, intended for use in athletic, extreme sports, and military applications, included fabrics designed to regulate body temperature, reduce wind resistance, and control muscle vibration.
Additionally, companies began to develop smart fabrics to guard against extreme environmental hazards, such as radiation and the effects of space travel. Innovations also included drug-releasing textiles, as well as fabrics for the health and beauty industry with moisturiser, perfume, and anti-aging properties.
The first generation of smart apparel had relatively modest capabilities – attaching a sensor to a garment or shoe, for example. The second generation had more advanced products with sensor(s) embedded within the garment. In subsequent generations, the garment itself became a sensor. A growing number of companies began to create flexible, stretchable, waterproof electronics with hydrophobic coatings able to repel water. Not only could these survive a laundry cycle or inclement weather, they also had wireless power inputs, without the need for any batteries.*
Progress with sensor technology, new materials, artificial intelligence (AI), motion tracking and haptics led to increasingly sophisticated products that increased the functionality and consumer appeal of smart clothing. While it remained a small fraction of the overall clothing market, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% enabled smart clothing to gain ever more market share.*** This allowed it to expand into a multi-billion-dollar industry in the 2020s and reach an inflection point during the 2040s.
By the late 2050s, smart clothing has become a trillion-dollar industry and continues to see faster growth compared to traditional clothing. Almost everyone in the developed world now has at least one item of smart clothing. The technology is now so cheap that the developing world is catching up too, much like smartphones became ubiquitous globally in the 2010s. Some of the most common and popular items include garments able to continuously monitor a heart rate, breathing, and other vital signs, alerting a hospital or medical professional to the first hint of trouble and ensuring a wearer gets the care they need. Longer term conditions can also be monitored from data on the strength and geometry of movements, for example.
Other clothes feature embedded photovoltaics, serving as wearable power supplies. This is especially useful for camping trips or other excursions. In a world of higher temperatures due to climate change, smart clothing can also provide cooling capabilities.
Meanwhile, scientists in the field can touch samples and obtain genetic sequences in a matter of seconds, while forensic teams can investigate crime scenes and improve the gathering of evidence, using smart gloves.
The world of fashion is also transformed, with garments able to quickly change appearance and texture, depending on a wearer's preference. Some of the more advanced clothes even incorporate video or holographic displays, providing opportunities for striking designs. In addition to gaudy catwalk creations, this also includes subtler and less showy versions, such as on-person buttons, wrist interfaces, holographic watches and so on. Smart clothing is also used in retail, catering, entertainment and other venues – to generate name badges, for example, or change the appearance of a uniform.
Seemingly endless applications are now possible, thanks to ongoing advances in technology. Smart clothing has grown from being a small and niche segment of the market in earlier decades, to a common part of many apparel and footwear ranges in the 2050s. By the 2070s, the majority of clothing will be smart, as the world becomes ever more saturated with biometric and other data.
== Handheld MRI scanners ==
The ability to scan, analyse and diagnose the body has taken a huge leap forward by now. Hi-res, 3D imaging of internal structures and brain activity is now possible using real-time video, rather than static photos. This can be accomplished with devices no bigger than a camera or tablet.* In the late 20th and early 21st century, these machines were so bulky that they filled whole rooms.* Scans typically required half an hour or longer to create. They were also expensive: upwards of a million dollars for a state-of-the-art
A new generation of machines began to evolve, based on supersensitive atomic magnetometers, detecting the tiniest magnetic fields. These replaced the enormous doughnut-shaped magnets used in the past. By the late 2050s, MRI scans have become as quick and easy as taking a photograph, with a hundredfold decrease in cost.* This is allowing healthcare programs in developing countries to benefit particularly.
= 2058 =
== The Beatles' music catalogue enters the public domain ==
Copyright law has remained largely unchanged since 2019. Accordingly, the Beatles' songs from 1962 are entered into the public domain, 96 years after the band's first single.*
== A radio telescope is built on the Moon* ==
By 2058, a radio telescope measuring hundreds of metres wide is being developed on the Moon's far side. This provides a stable platform with slow rotation rate (0.5 arcsec/sec), beyond the interference of Earth's atmosphere and cluttered radio background. It can produce astronomical images with a clarity unmatched by any observatory on Earth or in space. Individual stars, billions of light years away, can be seen assembling into the first galaxies. The telescope is situated within an impact crater. Both it and the surrounding infrastructure are built using material gathered from the Moon itself – drastically reducing costs.*
= 2059 =
== The end of the oil age ==
For most of the 20th century, prospectors discovered far more oil than industrial societies could consume. This was an era of cheap and plentiful energy that saw huge growth in the world's economy and population. By 1970, however, a major slowdown in discoveries was observed. This continued into the 21st century and the industry now faced competition from renewables. By the late 2050s, the end of the 200-year oil age is being witnessed, as the final dregs of economically viable reserves are extracted.* Plastics and other oil-based products have been replaced by alternatives, such as bioplastics.
== Mars has a permanent human presence by now ==
By the end of this decade, a permanent team of scientists is present on Mars.** This comprises a highly international mix of people. The first civilian tourist has also arrived. Travel to Mars is now cheaper and faster thanks to new forms of propulsion, cutting journey times from six months to just a few weeks.*
The base will soon be expanded with additional facilities providing more energy, food production and recycling systems, along with mining equipment and other tools.* Vehicles are being supplied too, improving the astronauts' mobility and enabling them to roam hundreds of miles. More sophisticated long term bases are now being planned to accomodate larger teams of scientists, as well as corporate interests.
The habitat modules are constructed partially underground, giving protection from the Sun's ultraviolet glare. Radiation-absorbing materials based on advanced nanotechnology are used in spacesuits, as well as on the exterior of the vehicles. These same materials have filters to block even the tiniest particles of dust, providing long term protection against the environment outside.
All of the above is providing the critical mass needed for self-sufficiency. Operations will soon be conducted entirely independent of Earth. In the coming years, the first children will be born on Mars.
== Future History II ==
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