Another Future

== Timeline ==
=== Background ===
By the early 2020s, the world, which had been relatively stable for at least several decades, began to gradually plunge into the largest political and economic crisis since the Cold War. Due to climate disasters and natural disasters that have become more frequent due to global warming, the influx of refugees from Africa and Latin America to Europe and the United States has not only not stopped, but has also increased significantly. In Europe, this led to the rise to power of extreme right-wing nationalists in many countries, which resulted in the closure of borders and isolation of European states from each other. Due to the continued influx of migrants, armed clashes broke out on the outskirts of Europe, and the Mediterranean turned into a deeply militarized region, continuously patrolled by warships of the Italian, Greek and Turkish naval forces in order to curb illegal migration.
In the United States, the confrontation between Democrats and Republicans, due to the increasing radicalization of the policies of President Donald Trump, has de facto turned into a confrontation between the extreme left and the extreme right. Moreover, interethnic and interracial conflicts related to the confrontation between white Americans and African Americans have significantly worsened. As a result, instability reached such proportions that many experts characterized it as a "sluggish civil war." Such events led to a decrease in the influence of the United States in the world - in an effort to solve internal problems, the country gradually returned to an isolationist policy.
In Russia, since 2014, the "stagnation" has been steadily flowing into a new political and economic crisis caused, on the one hand, by sanctions against Russia that continued to operate in connection with the annexation of Crimea and support for the rebel movement in the Donbass.
=== Russia ===
In Russia, in January 2020, the government was unexpectedly changed, and President Putin announced the upcoming amendments to the constitution. It was decided not to hold a referendum on this issue, however, in order to simulate a democratic procedure, the so-called "popular vote" was scheduled for April 22, 2020. The amendments themselves seemed strange to many - if the majority of the population supported populist measures in the form of inclusion in the basic law of social guarantees (already prescribed in federal laws), protection of traditional family values and a ban on officials and deputies having foreign citizenship or a residence permit, then the mention of God in the constitution, permission for the Constitutional Court to ignore international the law and, especially, the zeroing of presidential terms proposed by Valentina Tereshkova caused a dispute in society. The idea of a "state-forming people", by which the Russian people were meant, caused some confusion in the national republics.
Opposition movements, parties and politicians took a different attitude to voting: among them there were supporters of voting "for" and "against" (Left Front, Open Russia, Yabloko), adhering to the idea of boycotting the vote (Alexei Navalny, PARNAS) or choosing a wait-and-see position (the Communist Party, which supported social amendments, but criticizing the law as a whole). Subsequently, the Communist Party also called for a boycott of the vote. In February and March 2020, opposition forces held several rallies against the amendments. Also, in March, several Ingushetia teips sent open letters to Vladimir Putin, announcing a boycott of the upcoming vote.
However, an unforeseen situation intervened in the situation - on December 31, 2019, China announced the presence of an epidemic of a new coronavirus infection in the country. Due to strict quarantine measures and rapid response, by the end of March, the situation in the country was normalized, but the infection was spread outside China and led to the spread of the pandemic to the rest of the world, and the country's economy lost around $ 143 billion. Strict measures were also put in order in Japan, where the emergency regime was canceled in May (not counting the largest cities - for example, Tokyo). Some countries, like Belarus and Sweden, on the contrary, have practically abandoned quarantine measures.
Countries such as Spain, Italy and the United States have been seriously affected by the virus. In Italy, after the introduction of strict quarantine, a number of store robberies even took place in March 2020. Far-right forces also held anti-quarantine protests in the United States, Spain, Poland, and Ukraine. In Russia, on April 20, a similar rally was held in Vladikavkaz and organized by the semi-sectarian organization "citizens of the USSR", but many other local residents joined them, the demonstrators were dispersed by riot police. In the conditions of Putin's virtually complete self-removal from business, the influence of the mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, who implemented particularly strict quarantine measures in Moscow, has increased. However, confidence in the authorities has seriously fallen against the background of increasing economic problems caused by both quarantine and falling prices for hydrocarbons.
However, in the United States, the protests were not limited to the discontent of the far-right - for example, the murder of an African-American George Floyd by police caused riots, initially staged under the slogan "Black lives matter", but also caused by the sagging economy due to the epidemic and cuts in medical costs. Since everything turned into mass pogroms of shops, Trump managed to expose the situation in his favor, as well as accuse the Democrats on the ground of slowing down the process of suppressing the rebels. Also, military helicopters were used against the protesters in Washington (although no fire was opened on them - it was just a scare tactic). The governments of Russia and Zimbabwe were accused of organizing the protests, as well as anti-fascist organizations were banned.
On May 13, 2020, the heads of the Arkhangelsk region and the NAO announced the beginning of the process of unification of the regions, which caused protests in Naryan-Mar, supported not only by the indigenous population, who are afraid of blurring their identity, but also by many Russians, who fear the loss of "northern benefits" and the distribution of oil and gas revenues in favor of the poorer Arkhangelsk region. Even some local "United Russia" took part in the protests.
In the summer of 2020, the situation was relatively normalized in most countries, but at the cost of a severe economic downturn. Taking the situation under control allowed, for example, to hold a Victory parade in Russia and a popular vote on amendments, at which the majority voted "yes", but the turnout was lower than expected, and in order to prevent the return of a severe pandemic, masks and other protective equipment were distributed to the voters. The protests that took place after the announcement of the results were violently dispersed under the pretext of an epidemiological situation, some activists were detained.
In Europe, where unemployment has seriously increased due to the consequences of the pandemic, the authority of left-wing radical and right-wing populist parties has seriously increased. Meanwhile, while most of the world's governments were distracted from the situation in the Middle East, Turkey occupied northern Syria, clearing out Kurdish separatists and inflicting a heavy defeat on government forces. The Russian government was able to respond only with a note of protest and the termination of some trade agreements/ In August 2020, Alexander Lukashenko he tried to be re-elected for a new term but a series of protests and uprisings began in Belarus, which turned into a revolution, as a result of which Alexander Lukashenko was overthrown and fled to Russia. A provisional government was created, led by the leader of the protests Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.
In 2021, the next elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation were held. The growing economic crisis showed people that it was time to change the system. In addition, many former small business owners and their employees who lost their well-being during the pandemic were dissatisfied. As a result, the position of the Communist Party in parliament has strengthened, as well as deputies from the Prilepinsky party "For Truth" and "Yabloka" were elected. The suppression of protests against falsification was combined with another decision - Prime Minister Mishustin, who had recently lost his popularity, "asked" the president for his resignation and was replaced by Sobyanin, who regained authority during the epidemic. A "young technocrat" Gleb Nikitin was also introduced into the government. Sobyanin managed to establish contacts with both the security forces and systemic liberals. It would seem that while maintaining the majority for United Russia, the threats to the regime managed to pass and, as it seemed to the elites, the protests were extinguished, but all hopes ended in October 2022, after Vladimir Putin's death from a heart attack.
The impetus for the revolution was also Russia's recognition of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics and the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24. At first, the majority of Russians supported the war, but as a result international isolation and sanctions and unemployment (due to the departure of many foreign companies) Putin's rating has been greatly reduced. In addition, the president's health has deteriorated sharply. On October 13, he had a stroke. He suddenly became ill and was urgently sent to the Kremlin hospital. He died while still in the ambulance. The cause was a stroke. Those close to the elite expressed grief, while ordinary Russians waited in horror - what would happen next?
Acting President Sergei Sobyanin understood that it was unacceptable to further escalate the situation, so he decided to win the early elections as honestly as possible, simultaneously playing the "liberalization" card. So, one of the first decisions was the pardon of Nikolai Platoshkin and Sergei Furgal, and the latter's case was reviewed by the prosecutor's office and called fabricated as part of the undercover struggle of local elites.
Taking advantage of the situation, the opposition called on Russians to take to the streets, thereby finally overthrow the power of the United Russia. On October 18, rallies of no more than 500 people were held in some cities of Russia. On 19 october, the Communist Party and Leftist Forces held a rally of 10,000 people in Moscow, everything went extremely calm and without incident. For a whole month everything was relatively quiet. On October 20, rallies organized by liberal and leftist forces and the opposition against amendments to the constitution and the current government gathered up to 500 thousand people across the country. The protests were violently dispersed, 10 people were killed, hundreds were injured. The violent footage that went online only provoked people more, especially those who lost business and well-being during the pandemic, 600,000 thousand people took to the streets of Moscow on October 23, 350 thousand people in St. Petersburg, in other major cities of Russia from 30 to 50 thousand, the protest was declared indefinite, and the main slogan was: "It's now or never." There were the first clashes of the most radical protesters with the Rosgvardiya and the riot police. A tent camp was set up, by November 1 there were fewer and fewer people and the authorities decided to disperse by force up to the use of firearms, 1,500 people were killed by protesters and 450 by law enforcement agencies, after that pogroms began throughout the country, seizures of weapons depots, many security forces began to side with the people, riots They took place from October to November, which surpassed the Ukrainian Euromaidan in their brutality, many opposition leaders at that time, including Navalny and Katz, were in jail, as well as many opposition deputies of regional parliaments. On the air of federal channels, films were being played: anatomy of protest, about color revolutions, etc., but the most cruel thing was when armed men broke into the studio on November 6 and killed the presenter D.Kiselyov, and also called not to stay at home, but to take part in the overthrow of Putinism. On November 8, some opposition governors and mayors like Avksentieva and Konovalov openly declared the transition of their regions to the side of the people,.and they also called on the law enforcement agencies to do the same.
Because of the signs of victory of the protesters, Chechnya and Dagestan declared their independence. Many regions were under the control of the opposition, there was already confidence in breaking the regime, on December 6 the storming of the Kremlin began. Sergei Sobyanin, realizing that he did not want to rot in prison for the remaining years or be killed like Kiselyov, called the PRC with a request to grant him Political asylum. Immediately under the supervision of the FSO staff, he was evacuated under the underground tunnels, and on November 7, at 2 a.m. Moscow time, he flies to Beijing. The Kremlin was captured, the victory of the revolution was reported on all channels, and during the week there were mass celebrations throughout the country.We also had to put Moscow and the C-Pb in order, which were a deplorable sight. All political prisoners and opposition leaders were released. Arrests and escapes from the country of former regime figures began. In total, 4,000 to 6,000 thousand people died in the revolution, a monument to those who died for the freedom of Russia was erected on Manezhnaya Square, similar monuments were in other cities. The beginning of an era of unstable times in Russia, which lasted six months before the presidential and parliamentary elections. The revolution in Russia gave a transition to a real democracy, and not an imitation one, which was announced to it in 1991. It also became the end of the semi-authoritarian regime, which, according to historians, lasted since 2000, or even earlier since 1996 or 1993.
By the decision of the coordinating council of the opposition, Yevgeny Roizman became acting president. An ultimatum was immediately announced to Chechnya and Dagestan to lay down their arms and return to Russia within a day , or SOMEONE will begin to restore constitutional order. The ultimatum was rejected. On December 12, the KTO began, in a month, thanks to the modern army, the territorial integrity of Russia was restored compared to the 90s. Makhachkala was taken on December 20, and Grozny on December 25. At the same time, it was decided to return Crimea and Sevastopol to Ukraine and their annexation in March 2014 was recognized as occupation. In the Kaliningrad region, supporters of the separation of the region from Russia have sharply increased. On December 26, a referendum was held on the future fate of the region. 57% voted for joining Lithuania, 43% voted for reunification with Germany, and from January 1, 2023, the Kaliningrad Region became the 11th Konigsberg County.
The drafting of a new constitution based on the draft Constitution of 1993 has begun.The 2020 Constitution has been declared illegitimate. The new constitution introduced that the number of deputies increases from 450 to 850, it is forbidden for one deputy to hold a seat in the State Duma for more than 8 years, each deputy is elected individually, not by party, 10 deputies for each region. The presidential term returns to 4 years for 2 terms no more than for the whole life. Judges are elected by the people, and the judicial system does not depend on anyone. Governors, as well as mayors with heads of settlements, are elected exclusively by the people. A referendum was held on February 13, 2023, where 56% of Russians voted for the new changes. Amendments were made separately.
On March 5, the first free presidential elections in the history of Russia were held. A record number of candidates were admitted to them, the main ones were Alexei Navalny from Russia of the Future, Nikolai Rybakov from Yabloko, Sardana Avksentieva from New People, Natalia Pelevina from PARNAS, Dmitry Gudkov from Civil Initiative. Leonid Slutsky from the LDPR and Boris Titov from the Party of Growth also received insignificant results.
In the second round, Navalny won 35% of the votes, Avksentiev 25%, Rybakov 20%, Pelevin 13%, Gudkov 10%. The second round was held on March 19. Navalny scored 54% in it, Avksentieva scored 46%.
The inauguration took place on April 3, where Alexey Anatolyevich said that you are my employers, and I am your hired manager, which has gone down in history.
Elections to the State Duma were held on March 12. Russia of the Future won 135 seats in the Duma, Yabloko - 130 seats, PARNAS - 115 seats, the Party of Growth - 110 seats, the Civil Initiative - 110 seats, the Libertarian Party of Russia - 100, the Greens - 90 seats, the LDPR - 80 seats. Communists were not allowed to participate in the elections, so during the elections to the State Duma, the liberals successfully campaigned that the period 1917-1991 in the history of Russia (except for the period of the Great Patriotic War and Perestroika) was a period of tyranny (in particular, victims of repression (especially the repressions of 1937-1938) were rehabilitated, the struggle with the church was condemned, and The Bolsheviks were recognized as state criminals. And already on April 1, 2023, the Decommunization of Russia began.
Local elections of governors, mayors, heads of villages and regional deputies were held on March 20. The beginning of a new Democratic Russia.
===Revolution in Belarus===
The almost complete disregard of the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncompetitive 2020 elections weakened the authority of the authorities in Belarus, which followed the weakening of economic ties with the "bloody Lukashenka dictatorship" led to a significant strengthening of opposition parties.
On August 9, 2020, immediately after the vote, mass protests began throughout Belarus, including the cities of Minsk, Baranovichi, Brest, Vitebsk, Gomel, Grodno, Mogilev, Molodechno, Orsha, Pinsk. The reason was the suspicion of falsification of the election results in favor of the incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko. There were clashes between protesters and the police, who used tear gas, stun grenades, water cannons and rubber bullets, which, in her opinion, was justified by violations of public order by the demonstrators; at the same time, there were victims among the security forces. In response, the authorities carried out a punitive operation with mass beatings, destruction of property and detentions, including civilians, children, journalists, and doctors. There were evidences of bullying and torture of people after detentions. As a result, as of August 15, two people were killed, more than two hundred were injured, about a hundred, according to relatives, were missing.
On August 11, strikes began at Belarusian enterprises with demands to stop torture against detainees, bring the perpetrators to justice, and hold fair elections. The most massive protest actions took place on August 16, according to various estimates, from 100 thousand to 500 thousand people gathered in the center of Minsk alone.
However, attempts of harsh measures to suppress the protesters led to the gradual extinction of the protest. New sanctions have been imposed against the government of Alexander Lukashenko. Finding himself in a difficult situation, the president of the country decides to resign, and he himself fled to Russia. On September 1, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya was announced as Acting President of Belarus. A provisional government was formed, headed by the First Deputy chairman of the Rada of the Belarusian People's Republic, Sergei Naumchik. The National Assembly merged with the Rada of the Belarusian People's Republic into the Rada of the Republic of Belarus.
Elections to the Rada (December 13, 2020)
| bgcolor="660033" |
| United Civil Party
| Nikolay Kozlov
| 38,4%
| 
|-
| bgcolor="#8B4513" |
| BPF Party
| Grigory Kostusev
| 22,74%
| 
|-
| bgcolor="#ab82ff" |
| "Belarusian Social-Democratic Gramada"
| Sergey Cherechen
| 16,12%
| 
|-
| bgcolor="#000080" |
| "Belarusian Christian Democracy"
| Pavel Severinets
| 7,2%
| 
|-
| bgcolor="#AA0000" |
| "Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Gramada)"
| Tatiana Korotkevich
| 11,13%
| 
|-
| bgcolor="009933" |
| Belarusian Green Party
| Yuri Shulgan
| 4,41%
| 
===Turkish Gambit (2022)===
While Russia was gripped by revolutionary upheavals, Turkish President Erdogan, with the support of the United States, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel, decided to conduct a "blitzkrieg" in Syria. The leadership of NATO and its allied countries managed to organize a full-scale invasion of Syria. Damascus, seemingly already rebuilt with Russian-Iranian participation, was hit by missile strikes with depleted uranium, resulting in the death of Bashar al-Assad.
The IDF forces occupied the neutral zone of the Golan Heights, and Turkey occupied the rest of Syria, where a moderate Islamist regime was established. However, Kurdish separatists and supporters of Bashar al-Assad made themselves felt as irregular formations for several more years.
Even before the start of the Russian revolution, the Turkish military managed to conduct a military operation "Hand of Allah" in Libya, restoring the control of the Saraj government over the whole country and turning Libya into its puppet, which caused discontent in the UAE, Egypt and France, but was supported by Joe Biden. These two events led to the strengthening of Erdogan's opponents in Turkey.
Category:Another Future