Secular (Statistics)

The term “secular decline” refers to a long-term trend of decrease or downturn that is not influenced by short-term fluctuations or cycles. The word “secular” in this context means “long term” or “over a long period.” It is often used in economics and finance to describe a persistent downward trend in an industry or economy that unfolds over many years or even decades.
The origin of the term “secular decline” can be traced back to the broader concept of “secular trends,” which encompass both growth and decline over extended periods. These trends are driven by fundamental shifts in factors such as consumer behavior, technology, or demographics. For example, the U.S. tobacco industry has been cited as an industry experiencing secular decline due to the decreasing popularity of cigarette smoking over the past few decades12.
The term “secular stagnation” is related and was coined by economist Alvin Hansen in the 1930s during the Great Depression. It refers to a state of little or no economic growth, where the economy is essentially stagnant34. The concept was later revived by economist Lawrence Summers.DingyTable431.
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== Media ==
* Are ‘flow of ideas’ and ‘research productivity’ in secular decline? - ScienceDirect
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Growth; Projection; Movement; Comparison; Statistical Comparison
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