108290-wildstar-population-ncsoft-2nd-quarter-2014-earnings-report

Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4
== Content ==
			
NCSoft's second quarter earnings report is up on their website. It shows WIldstar's sales at about $27 million USD after converting from KRW (South Korea Won). If you assume an average box price of $60, with the folks paying for the deluxe canceled out by the folks who got a 20% discount on the box, that's a little over 455 k subs at launch, if I did my math right. (If I didn't, I know some kind soul will correct me.) 
Anyone want to speculate on what the retention rate of those buyers has been? One in two, one in five, one in ten still playing? We finally have some hard population numbers -- do they support the idea that WIldstar is fine pop-wise, or in trouble? 
 
My take: if I did the math right, these numbers aren't too good. Some folks have been suggesting Wildstar is meant to be a "niche hardcore" game like EVE Online, but EVE has 500k subs currently and has been holding steady at that level for a long time. Wildstar started with not quite that many, and has of course lost a lot of early subbers, as MMOs typically do right after launch.  So do we think there are currently around 230 k players? (One in two still subbed?) 100k? (One in five still subbed?) or 45k (One in ten still subbed?)  And what would those various numbers mean for the future of the game?  	
----
			This thread is sure to get entertaining a little later on.	
----
			You need to count CREDD sales in there as well.	
----
			Rentention rate doesn't matter too much when they have enough whales buying credd.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
NCSoft's second quarter earnings report is up on their website. It shows WIldstar's sales at about $27 million USD after converting from KRW (South Korea Won). If you assume an average box price of $60, with the folks paying for the deluxe canceled out by the folks who got a 20% discount on the box, that's a little over 455 k subs at launch, if I did my math right. (If I didn't, I know some kind soul will correct me.) 
Anyone want to speculate on what the retention rate of those buyers has been? One in two, one in five, one in ten still playing? We finally have some hard population numbers -- do they support the idea that WIldstar is fine pop-wise, or in trouble? 
 
My take: if I did the math right, these numbers aren't too good. Some folks have been suggesting Wildstar is meant to be a "niche hardcore" game like EVE Online, but EVE has 500k subs currently and has been holding steady at that level for a long time. Wildstar started with not quite that many, and has of course lost a lot of early subbers, as MMOs typically do right after launch.  So do we think there are currently around 230 k players? (One in two still subbed?) 100k? (One in five still subbed?) or 45k (One in ten still subbed?)  And what would those various numbers mean for the future of the game?  
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
 
Marketing expense also rose due to increased marketing campaigns for Wildstar
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
To use EvE as an example, they started out at 25K subs and grew to 500K over the years.  The next 6-12 months will tell if we're playing the next EvE or Tabula Rasa.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
To use EvE as an example, they started out at 25K subs and grew to 500K over the years.  The next 6-12 months will tell if we're playing the next EvE or Tabula Rasa.
----
			Could be an advantage later because most players probably didn't know about wildstar. Advertise later when majority of the tedious content is gone.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
NCSoft's second quarter earnings report is up on their website. It shows WIldstar's sales at about $27 million USD after converting from KRW (South Korea Won). If you assume an average box price of $60, with the folks paying for the deluxe canceled out by the folks who got a 20% discount on the box, that's a little over 455 k subs at launch, if I did my math right. (If I didn't, I know some kind soul will correct me.) 
Anyone want to speculate on what the retention rate of those buyers has been? One in two, one in five, one in ten still playing? We finally have some hard population numbers -- do they support the idea that WIldstar is fine pop-wise, or in trouble? 
 
My take: if I did the math right, these numbers aren't too good. Some folks have been suggesting Wildstar is meant to be a "niche hardcore" game like EVE Online, but EVE has 500k subs currently and has been holding steady at that level for a long time. Wildstar started with not quite that many, and has of course lost a lot of early subbers, as MMOs typically do right after launch.  So do we think there are currently around 230 k players? (One in two still subbed?) 100k? (One in five still subbed?) or 45k (One in ten still subbed?)  And what would those various numbers mean for the future of the game?  
----
			
 and now that  the doom says have  hard evidence to call wildstar a  flop ( and lets be clear just selling  at the rate of  an "AAA release"   would merit  close to duoble those revenue values) the forums  are going to get really really fun for the  next 3  months
 
 
/cast flameward
/cast doomGuard
/cast barrier
/cast troll ward	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
 
 
The game probably has about a 50% retention rate, maybe higher or lower by 5%, but half is normal.  If your math comes correct, that puts subs at 225k?  Better than I thought they were doing (I thought they'd settle in somewhere between 100-200k at first and grow.
----
			
You add to the mix. 190 guilds that complete 1/6 GA for both NA/EU.
Assume average there are 30 rosters each guild. meaning only around 5900 ppl.
Times it with 2x to get 0/6 GA guilds, so around 11800 ppl who could raid now? Those are professional/skilled players that dedicate to the game so they prolly surely subs.
 
Beside those who reach end game, there are some ppl doing housing, some ppl still dungeoning, some ppl still leveling, but from the look of the Hub city in Widow, it is quite deserted, and i dont think there are much outside the raiding guilds.
 
Some CREED in some server are dirt cheap, so i'm not sure how to calculate the actual subscription from these info either. Some people can play with CREED all months long without the need of playing subs because they played the market right.
 
Carbine should have tell the press by now if the subscription they get is great. By the fact that they silenced about this means there might be population/subscription drops.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
 and now that  the doom says have  hard evidence to call wildstar a  flop ( and lets be clear just selling  at the rate of  an "AAA release"   would merit  close to duoble those revenue values) the forums  are going to get really really fun for the  next 3  months
 
 
/cast flameward
/cast doomGuard
/cast barrier
/cast troll ward
----
			 just for the record eve has an abysmal attachment rates, they just have really managed to attach people to spending  more money per honest human customer.  But  CCP also how to get people to try the game and convert to members	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
 
 
/cast flameward
/cast doomGuard
/cast barrier
/cast troll ward
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I am going to call it now as Tabula Rasa
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
 
 Guh!
Ack!
*clink*
You Miss! troll ward resisted by 100%
 
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Even though I'd have to agree, I can't help but think, "poor Tabula Rasa"... still think I'm one of a small handful that actually loved the hell out of that game, lol.
 
 
WAIT!!! ...don't forget to roll the super-die... if you get a 4 you get a successful counter-attack! :D
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I really enjoyed Tabula Rasa for the short time it was around too. (it basically taught Rift how to Rift and the combat was fun).
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Carbine should have tell the press by now if the subscription they get is great. By the fact that they silenced about this means there might be population/subscription drops.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Hm, I feel that's optimistic. I suspect it's more like a one in four or even one in five retention rate, so 25% to 20%. It really doesn't look to me like Wildstar still has half the players it had at launch.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
What marketing?!  Seriously, other than a few website advertisements such as full-page ads on MMORPG.com and others, I have yet to see any MAJOR marketing for Wildstar that has even attempted to get an inkling of interest from passer-bys.  
 
Where's the commercials?
Where's the "Free Trial" disc on Gamestop counters?
Where's the actor/actress stating that play this game as XX class doing some space cowboy stuff?
 
 
The assumption that spent more than $10,000 on advertisement max would be laughable.   They invest all the time, resources, and effort into a new IP in the West and bank on it's success, but totally fail on propertly selling the product!  Why is that?!
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I don't know how they didn't think to get people from Firefly or Star Wars to do commercials.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
For a second, I was sitting there thinking, "Dude, I see ads for Wildstar all the time; what are people talking about?"
 
Then I realized that was Google ads... spitting Wildstar ads at me because I post about Wildstar on Facebook.
 
It's going to be a while before everyone knows what this game is.
----
			
It seems to be a secret rule that publishers agreed with:
 
You have a new game of a new IP that could be the next big thing? It has no shop with real money? That is focused on impulse purchase? It has a nice uncommon style? It uses a gameplay that requires some training? It has no day-one DLC? It's made by a little and relatively unknown studio? The returns are mostly positive?
 
Excellent, then, we won't take any risk with it! Nuke the marketing department and reallocate the money to the marketing of our big names!	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I saw ads on Twitch for about 3 days before head start, and that was it. That's the ONLY advertising I've ever seen for the game.
----
			I love the "Jurasic Park" version of WoW the environment is, the combat is decent, the dungeon queues blow, and even only at level 40, Malgrave is a ghost town (no pun intended). I don't want to dis the game I want it to do well, but if I'm going to pay $60 for the game and $180 in sub fees for the year, I want to know if I'm investing my time and money in an MMO or am I just going to be playing solo? So the real question is, where did NCSoft fail? And why wouldn't I invest my time and money in a successful game that actually feels like an MMO (high server pop vs ghost town)?	
----
			
Well, that should make it clear to even the most stalwart of supporters. At that rate the game has not even covered the costs to develop it. If they have higher than a 25% retention rate it would be shocking based on the numerous "this server is empty" posts.
 
The reason it has been so quiet from the devs is it is likely NCSoft is deciding whether it's worthwhile to F2P it or whether it would be better just to sunset it and cut losses (large live content teams are expensive to operate). In the past they've done it to games like Auto assault, Tabula Rasa and more. Unlike Eve which was a pure grassroots effort this will likely not be given the shot to recover.
 
For those that think it is a marketing issues, it is nothing of the sort, otherwise servers would be packed with the players they had at launch and it would be growing vs. shrinking drastically. You don't lose existing players to poor marketing. Right now there is no reason to justify further marketing spend on something that is burning money to keep running and creating live content for. 
 
As for the free trials, again it's irrelevant, people are "welcomed" to mostly empty servers and one of the worst new player/tutorial experiences in a major MMO. This was harped on in the beta forums a lot pre launch, but the devs were under the impression people would suffer through the poor experience to witness the "greatness" of the game. While this is true if you dropped money on the box this isn't true if you entered for free. You have about 5-10 minutes to "catch" someone.
 
In the off chance NCSoft gives them more time/funds, the paradigm shift they'd need to make to turn this around would be truly epic and there are absolutely no signs of that kind of focus/understanding/capability on the team's part.
 
I wish it had turned out different Wildstar had so much potential.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I love the "Jurasic Park" version of WoW the environment is, the combat is decent, the dungeon queues blow, and even only at level 40, Malgrave is a ghost town (no pun intended). I don't want to dis the game I want it to do well, but if I'm going to pay $60 for the game and $180 in sub fees for the year, I want to know if I'm investing my time and money in an MMO or am I just going to be playing solo? So the real question is, where did NCSoft fail? And why wouldn't I invest my time and money in a successful game that actually feels like an MMO (high server pop vs ghost town)?
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
For a second, I was sitting there thinking, "Dude, I see ads for Wildstar all the time; what are people talking about?"
 
Then I realized that was Google ads... spitting Wildstar ads at me because I post about Wildstar on Facebook.
 
It's going to be a while before everyone knows what this game is.
----
			I got my advertisement from YouTube and we seem to have a lot of blazzard moles in the forums.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Tabula Rasa was actually a really good game that I enjoyed playing a lot.
 
today its too bad it wasnt still around.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
We really do need a FPS MMO with skills magic and such. 
----
			Those numbers....not so good. 	
----
			Well Tabula Rasa is dead becaseu not enough subs.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
What marketing?!  Seriously, other than a few website advertisements such as full-page ads on MMORPG.com and others, I have yet to see any MAJOR marketing for Wildstar that has even attempted to get an inkling of interest from passer-bys.  
 
Where's the commercials?
Where's the "Free Trial" disc on Gamestop counters?
Where's the actor/actress stating that play this game as XX class doing some space cowboy stuff?
 
 
The assumption that spent more than $10,000 on advertisement max would be laughable.   They invest all the time, resources, and effort into a new IP in the West and bank on it's success, but totally fail on propertly selling the product!  Why is that?!
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
We really do need a FPS MMO with skills magic and such. 
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
We really do need A FPS MMO with skills magic and such.
----
			New IP, New Studio. Meaning they had no Fanbase from past games. 500k For this is pretty good. It will only grow as it is an amazing game. Again, Any game that has come always brakes records and then dies, but games that go stealth and grow slowly survive longer and become bigger as time goes by. Mmo's that grow slowly are better investments that games that have huge profits and then die suddenly.	
----
			
I literally have never seen an ad for this game. An acquaintance I competed with on the AH in WoW told me about this game the day the head start started, if not for that I would of never heard of this because I don't window shop at game stores and have yet to see an ad anywhere.
Quite brilliant on my competitors part to remove me from the games market. When I seen this was space themed and had telegraphs similar to GW2 I doubled down by canceling my WoW sub then reset my phone to wipe the authenticator so it'll be a pain in the ass to turn the account back on.
So please advertise soon.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Well Tabula Rasa is dead becaseu not enough subs.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
And don't forget the stung NC Soft pulled. You know... drafting up a closure document and then forging TR's creator's signature, and then closing the game at their whim. They were sued for 25 million. and lost. 
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I literally have never seen an ad for this game. An acquaintance i competed with on the AH in WoW told me about this game the day the head start started, if not for that I would of never heard of this game because I don't window shop at game stores and have yet to see an ad anywhere. Quite brilliant on my competitors part to remove me from the games market, When I seen this was space themed and had telegraphs similar to GW2 I doubled down by canceling my WoW sub then reset my phone to wipe the authenticator so it'll be a pain in the ass to turn the account back on.
So please advertise soon.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
New IP, New Studio. Meaning they had no Fanbase from past games. 500k For this is pretty good. It will only grow as it is an amazing game. Again, Any game that has come always brakes records and then dies, but games that go stealth and grow slowly survive longer and become bigger as time goes by. Mmo's that grow slowly are better investments that games that have huge profits and then die suddenly.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
You say 500k is good but how many of those players are still around? This game is not growing slowly if you had not noticed it's the complete opposite
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
 
 
You say 500k is good but how many of those players are still around? This game is not growing slowly if you had not noticed it's the complete opposite 
----
			
On Archon we've actually noticed an influx of new players in the low level areas.
I've been told this is because of free trials being handed out?
In any case our server, which was completely dead some weeks ago, is now slightly less dead. Here's hoping they all stay until lvl 50 and join us for the endgame.	
----
			
The free trial is comming soon, you can see that in the Wildstar launcher. They didnt do any advertising for the game, and it had around 500k players at launch, isnt that good?
 
Theres a lot of players who didnt resub right away because theres imbalances and bugs to fix, but theres a lot of them active in the forums waiting for the content they would like to come back.
 
If the devs can keep up with new content drops every months, and keep fixing stuff as fast as they are doing, Wildstar will live for a long time.
 
And BTW any other MMOs that Devs doing two hours streams per week to keep us informed? I dont think so, and the Devs are great, they are like ur friend, not like buisnessmans if you know what im saying.	
----
			
They DID do advertising for the game, I don't know why people keep denying that.
 
In the week around launch, every single Twitch stream I opened to watch some Dota played the 30s Nexus trailer.	
----
			RIP WS 2014-2014	
----
			They did a lot of advertisement. Streamers were playing this game A LOT. Then suddenly it faded out, just like server population in most realms. Even PERGO is looking like a ghost town sometimes, but population is still healthy. The economy, not so.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
 
 
And BTW any other MMOs that Devs doing two hours streams per week to keep us informed? I dont think so, and the Devs are great, they are like ur friend, not like buisnessmans if you know what im saying.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
since you asked. yes.
RIft for one does livestreams all the time. the devs, the class leads, even the games producer post on the forums and respond to players
 
@Maytree, agree with your guesstimates.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Ah, now I know why RIFT went f2p. No, seriously RIFT was an awesome game but they managed to *cupcake*it up as well. So what?
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
your post makes no sense, the guy asked if other games did regular livestreams to keep people informed. yes they do, I named just one of them.
----
			If you want to make comparisons to other mmo's growth models, you should at least look up at what number EVE started out with and it was 500K, it wasn't a third from 500K to give you a hint.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
And don't forget the stunt NC Soft pulled. You know... drafting up a closure document and then forging TR's creator's signature, and then closing the game at their whim. They were sued for 25 million. and lost. 
----
			
Does the addon site give any hint to how many players in total subbed?
 
I saw 1 download total for around 990k 	
----
			
Gah, yeah those numbers don't look so great.
 
Now, if all those box sales had kept playing, things would definitely be fine. But considering the massive dropoff? 
I was worried before, now I am wiping nervous sweat.  :unsure:
 
 
 
{| class="blockquote"
Does the addon site give any hint to how many players in total subbed?
 
I saw 1 download total for around 990k 
 
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
They did a lot of advertisement. Streamers were playing this game A LOT. Then suddenly it faded out, just like server population in most realms. Even PERGO is looking like a ghost town sometimes, but population is still healthy. The economy, not so.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Tabula Rasa was actually a really good game that I enjoyed playing a lot.
 
today its too bad it wasnt still around.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
NCSoft's second quarter earnings report is up on their website. It shows WIldstar's sales at about $27 million USD after converting from KRW (South Korea Won). If you assume an average box price of $60, with the folks paying for the deluxe canceled out by the folks who got a 20% discount on the box, that's a little over 455 k subs at launch, if I did my math right. (If I didn't, I know some kind soul will correct me.) 
Anyone want to speculate on what the retention rate of those buyers has been? One in two, one in five, one in ten still playing? We finally have some hard population numbers -- do they support the idea that WIldstar is fine pop-wise, or in trouble? 
 
My take: if I did the math right, these numbers aren't too good. Some folks have been suggesting Wildstar is meant to be a "niche hardcore" game like EVE Online, but EVE has 500k subs currently and has been holding steady at that level for a long time. Wildstar started with not quite that many, and has of course lost a lot of early subbers, as MMOs typically do right after launch.  So do we think there are currently around 230 k players? (One in two still subbed?) 100k? (One in five still subbed?) or 45k (One in ten still subbed?)  And what would those various numbers mean for the future of the game?
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
455k would be spectacular.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
NCSoft's second quarter earnings report is up on their website. It shows WIldstar's sales at about $27 million USD after converting from KRW (South Korea Won). If you assume an average box price of $60, with the folks paying for the deluxe canceled out by the folks who got a 20% discount on the box, that's a little over 455 k subs at launch, if I did my math right. (If I didn't, I know some kind soul will correct me.) 
Anyone want to speculate on what the retention rate of those buyers has been? One in two, one in five, one in ten still playing? We finally have some hard population numbers -- do they support the idea that WIldstar is fine pop-wise, or in trouble? 
 
My take: if I did the math right, these numbers aren't too good. Some folks have been suggesting Wildstar is meant to be a "niche hardcore" game like EVE Online, but EVE has 500k subs currently and has been holding steady at that level for a long time. Wildstar started with not quite that many, and has of course lost a lot of early subbers, as MMOs typically do right after launch.  So do we think there are currently around 230 k players? (One in two still subbed?) 100k? (One in five still subbed?) or 45k (One in ten still subbed?)  And what would those various numbers mean for the future of the game?  
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Does the addon site give any hint to how many players in total subbed?
 
I saw 1 download total for around 990k 
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Why exactly does everyone think these numbers are bad?
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
If they kept the majority of them.
 
Which didn't happen. It just didn't. Sorry, I wish it wasn't so.
----
			And remember that's only revenue through June 30th. Just 27 days of launch time.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
And remember that's only revenue through June 30th. Just 27 days of launch time.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Which is a shame, because it showed all the months of pre-orders and everyone who bought the game, but didn't wait another 5 days to show retention into 1st paying month.
----
			Games Dead... Move along now people... nothing to see here.. :ph34r:	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Games Dead... Move along now people... nothing to see here..
 
 :ph34r:
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Which is a shame, because it showed all the months of pre-orders and everyone who bought the game, but didn't wait another 5 days to show retention into 1st paying month.
----
			One thing to remember about the $27 million. Do you think 100% of the $60 people paid went to NC Soft? Do you think retailers make no money? some resellers were giving 20% off the retail price, and they still were making money off the sale. One can assume the retailer is taking at least $20 of every $60.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
If you want to make comparisons to other mmo's growth models, you should at least look up at what number EVE started out with and it was 500K, it wasn't a third from 500K to give you a hint.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
One thing to remember about the $27 million. Do you think 100% of the $60 people paid went to NC Soft? Do you think retailers make no money? some resellers were giving 20% off the retail price, and they still were making money off the sale. One can assume the retailer is taking at least $20 of every $60.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
 
My take: if I did the math right, these numbers aren't too good. Some folks have been suggesting Wildstar is meant to be a "niche hardcore" game like EVE Online, but EVE has 500k subs currently and has been holding steady at that level for a long time. 
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
One thing to remember about the $27 million. Do you think 100% of the $60 people paid went to NC Soft? Do you think retailers make no money? some resellers were giving 20% off the retail price, and they still were making money off the sale. One can assume the retailer is taking at least $20 of every $60.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
This came from NCSoft's quarterly earnings, so that was only the money that went to NCSoft.  That doesn't count anything going to other retailers.
----
			
Developers usually receive around 10% of the total sale price, so in this case of each sold 60$ copy, Carbine receives 6$ if it goes of the normal distribution chain.
Publishers take around 20-25% of direct sales.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I am going to call it now as Tabula Rasa
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
This is actually the more important question right now, because we do have the hard data on the sales thanks to this report. We don't know exactly how many people were playing at launch because we don't know precisely how much money NCSoft got from each game (what with discounts, retailer share, deluxe purchases and so on) but we know that it wasn't as high as one million initial purchases and we know it wasn't as low as one hundred thousand initial purchases. 500k players at launch seems like a very reasonable guess.
 
The real question now, as I asked in my initial post, is; What do we think the retention rate has been? I'm positive it's not as high as 50%.  But is it 33 %? (Retain one out of three?)  25%? 20%?   Or could it be as bad as 10%, with only one in ten players continuing past the free month? If it's as low as 10% retention the total game population at the moment could, quite possibly, be as low as 50K players.  That would be pretty dismal for a AAA MMO, if true. 
 
Folks who are still playing actively: in your opinion, when you log onto the game now, do you see 50% of the activity you saw at launch? or more like 20%? Or more like 10%?  And on which server and faction?
I think I see more like 10%, possibly 20% of activity at the most, based on folks no longer piling up at the AH/CX in Academy Corner, low activity in my Harvest Circle (100 strong at its height plus our three overflow circles specific to each resource node type), low activity in my main's guild (max 500 members, mostly softcore, most showing weeks since last log on), and talk both in Thayd Zone and in the Housing zone, which has been very, very quiet recently on my server. (Avatus Exile.)  Some of those are going to be folks who moved instead of just dropping sub, but I don't know how to tell how many. 
 
My take is that Wildstar is currently around 50k-100k total population across all servers, possibly as high as 200k if there are a ton of players at 50 who only come on to raid and don't chat or go to the AH or anything. I'm curious what other folks have as their personal estimates. 
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Tabula Rasa was shut down in its fourth month.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
 and can't say I'd imagine any game programming to show "empty", so some of those low could possibly even be zero people.
----
			
Well since no one else seems to do the math with the latest information that we have, I might as well do it:
 
So what do we know?
 
Earnings $27,000,000 (up until 30th June which basically means box sales/downloads)
Earnings per sold copy: Around 40% of $60 = $24 for each boxed copy sold by retailers, a little bit more for digital sales, and even more for collectors editions. Lets assume around $30 in average.
 
so $27,000,000/$30 is....
900,000 copies sold, and not the 500,000 we seem to assume all across threads!	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Dude, stop trying so hard. Stop spreading falsehoods based on speculation.
 
And I know he can't see this, so would someone please quote me.  (LOL, yeah, this speaks volumes on so many levels right here...)
----
			
So sales numbers are somewhere between 455k boxes(if NCSOFT took 100% money) and 780k boxes sold ( if NCSOFT only took 60%) ... it could be more if NCsoft took less.
 
Bottom line is people need to stop over reacting... and looking for doom and gloom. 	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Or perhaps stop trying so hard at denying what's right in front of you?  Several others in this thread have said the same.  Several other posts around the forums say the same.  Just pointing out how it is... deny it all you want to... the rest of us exist in this little place called "reality", you should check it out sometime troll. B)
 
Sorry truth makes you butt-hurt bro.  #ListPlusOne :D
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Well since no one else seems to do the math with the latest information that we have, I might as well do it:
 
So what do we know?
 
Earnings $27,000,000 (up until 30th June which basically means box sales/downloads)
Earnings per sold copy: Around 40% of $60 = $24 for each boxed copy sold by retailers, a little bit more for digital sales, and even more for collectors editions. Lets assume around $30 in average.
 
so $27,000,000/$30 is....
900,000 copies sold, and not the 500,000 we seem to assume all across threads!
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Correct, but the $27 million was what led people to assume the number of sold copies of the game.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
There's always Defiance, or maybe Fallen Earth. :D
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
You, sir, are dead to me. lol
----
			
I think it's that last set of numbers in that awkwardly formatted quote that's worth looking at here.
 
30-35% of the box sales.
 
Let's be generous, round up from the top.
 
160k paid subscribers.
 
 :unsure:	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Heh, well, sad truth is, there's not that many FPS story-driven mmos out there.  I tried getting into Planetside a few times, both one and two... seemed too "run and gun"-ish or perhaps "deathmatch"-ish of sorts for me... not enough immersion storyline-wise (no traditional quests and all that)... so outside of Tabula Rasa... best that came to mind was Defiance and Fallen Earth. :P
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I think it's that last set of numbers in that awkwardly formatted quote that's worth looking at here.
 
30-35% of the box sales.
 
Let's be generous, round up from the top.
 
160k paid subscribers.
 
 :unsure:
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
LOL.  Yea.  Destiny would be your closest at this point.  Planetside is just "Battlefield 3" with lasers and 2,000 player battles.  Not that I complain.  Lets me fly around in a bomber and make a whole mess of virtual people dead.
 
I played Tabula Rasa for the first half of it's life.  It's BIGGEST problem was content was thrown out the door, untested.  And that just started making the game with bugs galore, have crippling bugs on top of the game breaking bugs.  Kinda like Auto Assault.  Too much at once, without the backend completed.  Instead of server latency failures, TR failed to get its QA right.  I remember one zone boss that would get down to 10%, and if you were lucky, he'd keep dying.  If you weren't, he'd reset.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Lets hope they learned their lesson....
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Well your also forgetting that the 27 mil is NCSofts cut... not carbines cut. number could be worse or less. Box sales are between 450k and 1 mil.
----
			So what does "Sales (excluding royalty)" mean in this context? Revenue from sales after royalty is subtracted? Earning report jargon is really confusing, especially when english is your second language.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
What marketing?!  Seriously, other than a few website advertisements such as full-page ads on MMORPG.com and others, I have yet to see any MAJOR marketing for Wildstar that has even attempted to get an inkling of interest from passer-bys.  
 
Where's the commercials?
Where's the "Free Trial" disc on Gamestop counters?
Where's the actor/actress stating that play this game as XX class doing some space cowboy stuff?
 
 
The assumption that spent more than $10,000 on advertisement max would be laughable.   They invest all the time, resources, and effort into a new IP in the West and bank on it's success, but totally fail on propertly selling the product!  Why is that?!
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Indeed & Agreed... kind of got really high hopes for The Division... hoping to not be disappointed... game looks/sounds/seems awesome.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
So what does "Sales (excluding royalty)" mean in this context? Revenue from sales after royalty is subtracted? Earning report jargon is really confusing, especially when english is your second language.
----
			
edit: thanks for clarifying Vic.
 
There's a problem if people just interpret "sales" as whatever they like (best serves their cause/argument), when there's a big difference between sales, revenue, profit, earnings etc. It could be off by as much as a factor of 3, seemingly.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
So what does "Sales (excluding royalty)" mean in this context? Revenue from sales after royalty is subtracted? Earning report jargon is really confusing, especially when english is your second language.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I'm not sure what my friends are salivating more over.  The Division or Cyberpunk 2077.  It's a very close race.  The only *gulp* moment I have for The Division is "Ubisoft".  That said, that engine they created is amazing.  As for Wildstar topic?  By December, you'll have a solid idea where they're taking the game.  We're still only 90 days out the door.  We've had a content drop and a ton of bug patches.  So, at least it's in the right direction?  
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
There are ads for WildStar on a lot of cabs and stuff in Boston. I've been seeing them around since before the game came out and they're still all around the city.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
edit: thanks for clarifying Vic.
 
There's a problem if people just interpret "sales" as whatever they like, when there's a big difference between sales, revenue, profit, earnings etc. It could be off by as much as a factor of 3, seemingly.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
It normally means the amount of money that you have made after having deducted the royalty you pay to royalty holders. In this case it would mean the amount of money that NCSOFT still have left after having payed carbine their share (royalties in games development typically means the share that a publisher pays to a developer)
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
 
So 'sales' in this case would mean total revenue minus royalties (which is normally around 10% of profit from sales)?
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I'm not sure what my friends are salivating more over.  The Division or Cyberpunk 2077.  It's a very close race.  The only *gulp* moment I have for The Division is "Ubisoft".  That said, that engine they created is amazing.  As for Wildstar topic?  By December, you'll have a solid idea where they're taking the game.  We're still only 90 days out the door.  We've had a content drop and a ton of bug patches.  So, at least it's in the right direction?  
----
			
$27 million. Box sales, initial subs, CREDD. I had thought Wildstar would crack nine figures easy for the quarter, now I'm not even sure if they'll make nine figures for a year.
 
Well. *cupcake*.
 
{| class="blockquote"
What marketing?!  Seriously, other than a few website advertisements such as full-page ads on MMORPG.com and others, I have yet to see any MAJOR marketing for Wildstar that has even attempted to get an inkling of interest from passer-bys.  
 
Where's the commercials?
Where's the "Free Trial" disc on Gamestop counters?
Where's the actor/actress stating that play this game as XX class doing some space cowboy stuff?
 
 
The assumption that spent more than $10,000 on advertisement max would be laughable.   They invest all the time, resources, and effort into a new IP in the West and bank on it's success, but totally fail on propertly selling the product!  Why is that?!
----
			I think the only solution is that someone here buys a bunch of NCSoft shares, flies to Korea for the next Conference Call and asks what exactly do the numbers mean.	
----
			For comparison: Guild Wars 2 made $42 million out the door a year and three quarters ago.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
$27 million. Box sales, initial subs, CREDD. I had thought Wildstar would crack nine figures easy for the quarter, now I'm not even sure if they'll make nine figures for a year.
 
Well. *cupcake*.
 
 
Oh goodie, the ol' City of Heroes stabbed-in-the-back myth is firing up again. There's been advertising, I remember full page ads on gaming websites at launch and I still can't click on a webpage without finding a chua flash animation in the corner. NCSoft's been pulling their weight as much as NCSoft usually does. Its not the game being failed, man.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
You thought an MMORPG would make 100,000,000 at launch?
 
That is an insane amount of money to make on launch alone for an MMORPG, especially an original IP.  Maybe WoW can make that kind of money.
 
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
 
And remember, GW2 is the fastest selling MMORPG of all time.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I didn't do my research. *cough* I also thought there would be at least a million in box sales, honestly.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
For comparison: Guild Wars 2 made $42 million out the door a year and three quarters ago.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
For comparison: Guild Wars 2 made $42 million out the door a year and three quarters ago.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
And in that post we have some interesting things more like:
GW2 sold more than 2 million copies, so each copy generated a sales of about $21. Ugh, isn't GW2 selling at $60 each?Since the retail price is about the same maybee we could assume that NCSOFT makes around $21 for Wildstar too? Then we get almost 1.3 million sold copies...!
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
CREDD money and subscription money are also included in that figure, so no you don't.
----
			I think it should be noted that not all the boxes sold for the full 60 as well. As I recall some people purchased form green man gaming for something like 40-50sh dollars too. Just something to consider...	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
ALSO, 'cause its early and the second coffee hasn't totally kicked in yet, GW2 had no initial subs, no initial CREDD surge, and cash shop only.
----
			I'm not surprised by these numbers. They boasted making a game for the 1 percenters...someone forgot to mention to Carbine that casuals pay the bills.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I think it should be noted that not all the boxes sold for the full 60 as well. As I recall some people purchased form green man gaming for something like 40-50sh dollars too. Just something to consider...
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
There is no subscription billings before July 3, so no. Anyone that prepaid a subscription is not part of earned revenue yet, so not reported.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
But no CREDD sales happened in June at all though, right?
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
 
 
I think it should be noted that not all the boxes sold for the full 60 as well. As I recall some people purchased form green man gaming for something like 40sh dollars too. Just something to consider...
----
			
Alright, second coffee's kicking in. Here's the lowdown:
 
Gauging population numbers from the first quarter reports is a fool's errand. Unless it comes from Carbine themselves, we're all throwing darts at a very large dartboard.	A $27 million opening really isn't that bad for a brand new IP.	Its the 3Q report that's important, that's where we see where the numbers start to level off at.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Well Tabula Rasa is dead becaseu not enough subs.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
TR died because Garriot's enormous ego barfed all over it. That man couldn't get out of his own way, and dev time went way long, way out of focus, and you got TR. 
 
Same thing happened with Hellgate London. Former Blizz employees egos got in the way and they rushed it, half assed the gameplay, and you got a crap Diablo clone with no meat.
 
This is not the case for Wildstar. Wildstar has a solid skeleton, some good tasty meat bits, but they need to finish cooking it, and they need to listen to how their customers want it cooked. I'm not going to eat medium rare just because they say to.
 
And there ends my diatribe and horrible analogy.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
 
 
And there ends my diatribe and horrible analogy.
----
			
 Well theres other factors to consider..there are new players coming into the scene so they won't be accounted for on this quarter... We moved guild to the other faction and within 7 days got roughly around 45 new recruits most of these players have commented on the fact that they are new to the game and just recently purchased.. So there are new players arriving into the game.
 
Rather than being self serving.. my officers and myself as well as our veteran players decided we would much more proactive than normal in helping out the new players to help keep their attention afloat while carbine works on positive changes to the game.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
This is not the case for Wildstar. Wildstar has a solid skeleton, some good tasty meat bits, but they need to finish cooking it, and they need to listen to how their customers want it cooked. I'm not going to eat medium rare just because they say to.
 
And there ends my diatribe and horrible analogy.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
My take: if I did the math right, these numbers aren't too good. Some folks have been suggesting Wildstar is meant to be a "niche hardcore" game like EVE Online, but EVE has 500k subs currently and has been holding steady at that level for a long time. Wildstar started with not quite that many, and has of course lost a lot of early subbers, as MMOs typically do right after launch.  So do we think there are currently around 230 k players? (One in two still subbed?) 100k? (One in five still subbed?) or 45k (One in ten still subbed?)  And what would those various numbers mean for the future of the game?  
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
But how many subs did EVE START with?  They didn't start with that 500K that they are now currently maintaining, did they?
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
 
Alright, second coffee's kicking in. Here's the lowdown:
 
Gauging population numbers from the first quarter reports is a fool's errand. Unless it comes from Carbine themselves, we're all throwing darts at a very large dartboard.	A $27 million opening really isn't that bad for a brand new IP.	Its the 3Q report that's important, that's where we see where the numbers start to level off at.
 
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
The earliest report for CCP was 25k subs.  But one boon EvE has ALWAYS had was their mega-one server for 500K users build.  Granted, massive fleet battles took a TON of nifty programming ideas to stop the lag problems, but... 
----
			The true equation will be if we're making money and gains QoQ.  Wildstar is a 9 year development.  That's a LARGE investment.  If it's showing profit QoQ, they'll keep it going to show a positive RoI.  If they're making gains QoQ, they'll invest more into it to further that RoI.	
----
			
Isn't the quarter from April 1st to June 30th? If so, then there would be no paid subscriptions in the mix, but they started selling credd before end of quarter. My first CREDD purchase was June 10th. That definitely waters down the mix, though you can't really say how much.
 
I would think this number includes physical sales, digital sales, and credd sales. I also have to point out that NCSoft most likely sold a large number of digital sales from their own site, which leaves a larger portion in their pocket I would think, but I may be wrong.
 
I think it is a healthy start, regardless, but they need to get on the stick to make it thrive. As it stands now, I'm on a month paid for by CREDD and I'm not even bothered to play. It isn't because I don't like the game, it is just an excercise in frustration and lack of satisfaction. That's coming from someone who finished attunement and messed about in GA some.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Isn't the quarter from April 1st to June 30th? If so, then there would be no paid subscriptions in the mix, but they started selling credd before end of quarter. My first CREDD purchase was June 10th. That definitely waters down the mix, though you can't really say how much.
 
I would think this number includes physical sales, digital sales, and credd sales. I also have to point out that NCSoft most likely sold a large number of digital sales from their own site, which leaves a larger portion in their pocket I would think, but I may be wrong.
 
I think it is a healthy start, regardless, but they need to get on the stick to make it thrive. As it stands now, I'm on a month paid for by CREDD and I'm not even bothered to play. It isn't because I don't like the game, it is just an excercise in frustration and lack of satisfaction. That's coming from someone who finished attunement and messed about in GA some.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I thought they only started selling CREDD a little after launch.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Right, but it is still in the last month of Q2. Unless their quarter is different from everyone elses.
----
			
From my transaction history:
 				Jun 10, 2014							 							C.R.E.D.D.							Credit Card							$19.99							Completed	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
 
From my transaction history:
 Jun 10, 2014   C.R.E.D.D. Credit Card $19.99 Completed 
----
			Well the game has a few more months to figure it out...Warlords doesn't release until November 13th.
			
				
	Edited August 14, 2014 by BusterCasey
	
		Language	
----
			I really hope the games overall retention rate is better than the retention rate they got with my friends that came to this game :(	
----
			
Whoops, just looked it up, the comparison that was here earlier was off... seems GTA5 nailed 1-billion not long out of the gate... but still, $100,000,000 (100 mil) for a brand new IP right out of the gate is still an insane expectation/hope in any regard... especially for an MMO, that up until recently, most all MMOs were only on one platform (PC/Mac/Linux).
 
{| class="blockquote"
Isn't the quarter from April 1st to June 30th? If so, then there would be no paid subscriptions in the mix, but they started selling credd before end of quarter. My first CREDD purchase was June 10th. That definitely waters down the mix, though you can't really say how much.
 
I would think this number includes physical sales, digital sales, and credd sales. I also have to point out that NCSoft most likely sold a large number of digital sales from their own site, which leaves a larger portion in their pocket I would think, but I may be wrong.
 
I think it is a healthy start, regardless, but they need to get on the stick to make it thrive. As it stands now, I'm on a month paid for by CREDD and I'm not even bothered to play. It isn't because I don't like the game, it is just an excercise in frustration and lack of satisfaction. That's coming from someone who finished attunement and messed about in GA some.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I really hope the games overall retention rate is better than the retention rate they got with my friends that came to this game :(
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I know that feel, bro.
 
I brought close to a dozen people with me.
 
Now it's just me and wife - and I'm pretty sure she's only playing to humor me.  :(
----
			
I heard the full range of excuses.
 
"I have more fun playing <whatever game they've been playing for years> because I don't have to level again."
 
"Oh, I'll be back. Just had some RL things going on." (Two months later? Wow, you're really busy!)
 
"Man, this game is just not relaxing. I can't unwind and enjoy myself."
 
"WoW is better."
 
"I like the art, but the combat makes me crazy."
 
So on and so on ... The one's that made me the saddest were the one's who talked me into being a damn Guild Leader and promptly left me hanging with a guild full of relative strangers. I'm kind of lost at this point, since I had really been relying on those guys to help foster the PVE side of things. These are the people who convinced me to go to Evindra because they weren't going to play on a PVP server. That's just maddening and heart-breaking to me at the same time.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I know that feel, bro.
 
I brought close to a dozen people with me.
 
Now it's just me and wife - and I'm pretty sure she's only playing to humor me.  :(
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I know that feel, bro.
 
I brought close to a dozen people with me.
 
Now it's just me and wife - and I'm pretty sure she's only playing to humor me.  :(
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I really hope the games overall retention rate is better than the retention rate they got with my friends that came to this game :(
----
			Ok, so are we done crying about whether ot not Carbine and NCSoft made money.  They have money, lets play the game.  If they continue to add things to the game, lets give them more money.   If they don't lets not.  GG. 	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I've added 5 friends and 2 more family members. Plus the guild has grown by about 40 members since launch. :)
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I brought over about 10 people to Wildstar.  7 still play.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Ok, so are we done crying about whether ot not Carbine and NCSoft made money.  They have money, lets play the game.  If they continue to add things to the game, lets give them more money.   If they don't lets not.  GG. 
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
 
Judgeing by how pleasant you are in the forums I am sure it has more to do with Wildstar then your personality . . .
 
 
 
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
And I brought in 10 or so as well and none play, it goes both ways :D
----
			If we are talking about people we brought over and how many we have left, then I brought over 4 and out of them 3 of them remain playing.	
----
			
The guild I am part of moved from SW:TOR to here because of the content drought and we actively recruited with 20-man raids as a goal.  During the first month we had 20+ people logged in every night.  Most of us made it to the second month... then we hit the end-game brick wall.  We are a capable group and we could have gotten through Attunement... but the combination of punishing + unrewarding just wasn't something we equate to entertaining.
 
The decision was made that Wildstar needed a few more months to bake.  The biggest group (including me) opted to move to WoW which will be new to at least half of us.  Out of the 30-40 people from our guild that used to log into WS I see maybe three or four others.  The thing that shocks me most is that since the move was announced we had one /gquit.  Maybe people rerolled on a different server or stayed on Thunderfoot but went Exile.  IMO, they've moved on as well.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
NCSoft's second quarter earnings report is up on their website. It shows WIldstar's sales at about $27 million USD after converting from KRW (South Korea Won). If you assume an average box price of $60, with the folks paying for the deluxe canceled out by the folks who got a 20% discount on the box, that's a little over 455 k subs at launch, if I did my math right. (If I didn't, I know some kind soul will correct me.) 
Anyone want to speculate on what the retention rate of those buyers has been? One in two, one in five, one in ten still playing? We finally have some hard population numbers -- do they support the idea that WIldstar is fine pop-wise, or in trouble? 
 
My take: if I did the math right, these numbers aren't too good. Some folks have been suggesting Wildstar is meant to be a "niche hardcore" game like EVE Online, but EVE has 500k subs currently and has been holding steady at that level for a long time. Wildstar started with not quite that many, and has of course lost a lot of early subbers, as MMOs typically do right after launch.  So do we think there are currently around 230 k players? (One in two still subbed?) 100k? (One in five still subbed?) or 45k (One in ten still subbed?)  And what would those various numbers mean for the future of the game?  
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
The guild I am part of moved from SW:TOR to here because of the content drought and we actively recruited with 20-man raids as a goal.  During the first month we had 20+ people logged in every night.  Most of us made it to the second month... then we hit the end-game brick wall.  We are a capable group and we could have gotten through Attunement... but the combination of punishing + unrewarding just wasn't something we equate to entertaining.
 
The decision was made that Wildstar needed a few more months to bake.  The biggest group (including me) opted to move to WoW which will be new to at least half of us.  Out of the 30-40 people from our guild that used to log into WS I see maybe three or four others.  The thing that shocks me most is that since the move was announced we had one /gquit.  Maybe people rerolled on a different server or stayed on Thunderfoot but went Exile.  IMO, they've moved on as well.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I'll be honest. if you couldn't get attuned, you're not going to have much if any success in the Raids. They are nerfing the attunement so anyone can get attuned now. But they're not planning on nerfing the raids.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Raids will get nerfed, just wait.
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I'll be honest. if you couldn't get attuned, you're not going to have much if any success in the Raids. They are nerfing the attunement so anyone can get attuned now. But they're not planning on nerfing the raids.
----
			I brought over me and I'm still playing. That's 100%.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
We have no data, aside from what happens to every mmo out there that population dies after the first 6 months then slowly grows up. If you like the game, why are you worried? Or in order for you to like it, every other person has to like it?
 
I could care less about the numbers, as long as I am having fun; that is all I care.
----
			I came with 20 people from a previous game. When there were about 8 of us left we guild merged into a new guild. Currently I'm the last of the orginal 20 holding down the fort. My current guild will likely fold soon. I'm just gonna play casual alt's on credd I've decided. I was really hoping this was gonna stick but it doesn't appear in the cards for me.	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
What part of "just wasn't something we equate to entertaining" meant incapable of completing Attunement to you?  It wasn't the difficulty it was the grindyness, addiction to RNG, and wretched Customer Service that killed WS for us.
----
			I now know what my grandfather meant when he joked about how business was going,  "It started out slow, and tapered off."	
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
I now know what my grandfather meant when he joked about how business was going,  "It started out slow, and tapered off."
----
			
{| class="blockquote"
Ok, so are we done crying about whether ot not Carbine and NCSoft made money.  They have money, lets play the game.  If they continue to add things to the game, lets give them more money.   If they don't lets not.  GG. 
----