Crafting Skill Ups

category:guides
==Overview==
Gaining skill in any craft may be influenced by a number of factors. The only proven influences are the gap between current craft skill level and the recipe's skill cap, and guild synthesis support. As of the May 2015 update, you can get skill from recipes up to 10 levels below your skill.
Hypothesized influences include such things as day of the week in relation to the crystal being used, moon phase, and (perhaps the most controversial hypothesis) the direction the player is facing while synthing.
Failed synthesis can give skill-ups, but only if the unmodified skill level is at least 5 under the cap for the recipe. Using skill gear and support will increase your success rate until your skill is high enough to get skill-ups regardless of succes.
==The Formula==
:Skill Cap - Your Skill - Sum("The Factors") = X	
__TOC__
===The Skill Cap===
The maximum skill level attained from this recipe.	
===Your Skill===
The number to use in this formula your current skill level truncated to the units digit (rounded down). There is no difference in performing a recipe with skill level 54.2 or 54.9. Only full levels are considered. Guild items that add '+' skill levels, should be considered as a whole skill number, and be added to the number listed in your status window.
==="The Factors"===
Below is the list of factors that are most popularly rumored to influence the success rate of a recipe and/or the likelihood of receiving a skill up.
*Please note: The Crafting Bonuses from Cheers refer to actual SKILL percent bonus of 1%, not rate of Skill gain rate.
thumb|Elemental Strengths
Factor	
Situation	
Effect
Days of the Week	
Same day as crystal
    or
Lightsday (for non-dark crystal recipe)	
+1
Days of the Week	
Opposite day to crystal (day is strong against crystal)
    or
Darksday (for non-dark crystal recipe)	
-1
Days of the Week	
Any other day	
0
Moon Phase	
Full Moon	
+1
Moon Phase	
Half Moon	
0
Moon Phase	
New Moon	
-1
Synthesis Image Support	
Paid Synthesis Image Support	
+3
Synthesis Image Support	
Free Synthesis Image Support	
+1
Synthesis Image Support	
None	
0
Compass Direction	
Same direction as crystal	
+0.5
Compass Direction	
Opposite direction to crystal (direction strong against crystal)	
-0.5
Compass Direction	
Any other direction	
0
Ionis	
When inside Seekers of Adoulin zones (including Mog Garden) and the Inventor's Coalition is high enough in level.	
Armor	
Orvail Ring	
+5%
Armor	
Shaper's Shawl	
Food	
Cherry Macaron	
"Minor" +3%
Food	
Coffee Macaron	
"Moderate" +5%
Food	
Kitron Macaron	
"Significant" +7%
Cheers	
Cockatrice	
Alchemy +1%
Cheers	
Immature Crab	
Bonecraft +1%
Cheers	
Ram	
Bonecraft +1%
Cheers	
Sheep	
Clothcraft +1%
Cheers	
Rabbit	
Cooking +1%
Cheers	
Alabaster Lizard	
Goldsmithing +1%
Cheers	
Karakul	
Leathercraft +1%
Cheers	
Lizard	
Leathercraft +1%
Cheers	
Ziz	
Smithing +1%
Cheers	
Green Foliage Treant	
Woodworking +1%
Note: The number to apply based on moon phase can be adjusted to levels between 1 and 0 (negative or positive) based on the percentage difference between half and full moon. A 75% Waxing moon phase would result in a +0.5
Note: Please note that the elemental compass and moon phase effects are not considered reliable or correct by many experienced crafters, and has little obvious effect on crafting results. it may help, but should not be relied on for improved results.
=="X"==
Now for the "X". This is the result of the formula, and below is what you can expect from various numbers.
===The Redundant Zone: < 1===
*Skill ups can be harder to attain.
*The recipe is too easy to improve your skill.
*Just too many factors helping you succeed, so no chance to learn.
===The Success Zone: 1 - 2===
*Very good rate of success.
*Skill ups will happen, but some will be lost due to the recipe being easy to your current skills.
*Best used when the recipe is break even or profit, and/or when the ingredients are expensive.
===The Prime Skill Up Zone: 2 - 5===
*Very good rate for skill ups.
*Failures will happen, but at a fair trade off for skill ups (in most cases).
*For anywhere from 7/8-1 levels from cap, it is fairly easy to get the "X" to be in this range>
*You still gain skill on breaks
===The Difficult Zone: 5 - 7===
* You do not gain skill on breaks
* Supplies better be cheap, or you will be digging yourself into a hole.
:*(Edit: this is not correct: You still DO gain skill-ups if your nominal skill (the one that shows in your window) is 5 or less below the cap of the recipe.)
:*(**Edit: Clarification. When you are 5 or more levels below the craft (advanced synth and skill items added), You can get skill ups if you succeed in making the item. However, if you break the item, you will not get a skill up.
:*Double Edit Clarification: You CAN still get skill ups on a synthesis failure, albeit very rare at this point. I was 6.3 away from cap of item, had NO 'benefit effects' active (i.e. gear, food, guild support, Mog Power, etc...), got a "critical Failure" losing all synth mats, and still got a 0.1 skill-up. Danallen (talk) 00:06, May 28, 2014 (UTC)
===The High Risk, Low Reward Zone: > 7===
* Only for the case that each other recipe will give you an even higher loss
* Please move onto another craft/recipe before wasting your gil here.
==Examples==
Lizard Cesti - Leathercraft 17 - Earth Crystal
Level 13: Craft on Earthsday (+1), Face South (+.5), New Moon (-1), No Guild Support (+0) = 0.5
x = 17 - 13 - 0.5 = 3.5
Level 14: Craft on Earthsday (+1), Face Southeast (-0.5), Half Moon (+0), No Guild Support (+0) = 0.5
x = 17 - 14 - 0.5 = 2.5
Level 15: Craft on Windsday (-1), Face Southeast (-0.5), Half Moon (+0), No Guild Support (+0) = -1.5
x = 17 - 15 + 1.5 = 3.5
Level 16: Craft on Windsday (-1), Face Southeast (-0.5), Half Moon (+0), No Guild Support (+0) = -1.5
x = 17 - 16 + 1.5 = 2.5
==Official comments==
Official Comment from FINAL FANTASY XI Reddit AMA Summary August 1 2016 (found in the SE forums here or on /r/FFXI here for the full unabridged version)
According to the Reddit AMA Summary:Q: Can you officially confirm the crafting variables? Does direction, day of the week, time of day etc. affect crafting in anyway?A: They do not. Square Enix has never come out and directly addressed how synthesis works behind the scenes, opting instead to let players try to scientifically work it out - the purpose of the game, after all, is to simulate a real world in which the laws of nature are not yet fully understood.
At the FFXI Fan Festival on March 14 2006 in Santa Monica, California, the question “Does the direction you’re facing have anything to do with crafting results?” was asked of a panel of developers during an open Q&A. The developer who replied laughed openly, thought for a moment, then answered cryptically with a smirk: “Face whichever way your heart tells you and believe.” 
The issue is still unresolved to this day. 
==Conclusion==
This guide has been generally accepted in the FFXI community for a few years, but not without serious debate. While many high level crafters will stand by their belief that only one factor affects synthesis - player skill level vs. skill level of synth, others believe in skill plus moon phase only, and still others take this guide (or similar ones) as infallible gospel. 
Good luck to all FFXI crafters, and keep up the good work.
A web-based application that uses the theories contained in this guide to aid crafters in their synthesis is available here: FFXI Crafting Timer
A complete test can be found at this article. It can be used to aid your judgment in determining if this is true or false.