Foreign Concerns Gazette/Year 448.5 - 449

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Category:Session Summaries
The Big Float
Economic News:
*"A Working Relationship" Saldanese Executive Board Publicly Authorizes Investment by Bank of Valdos in Assets Returning Up to 1.2% of Saldanese GDP. Half of Valdosian Investments to be Endowed on Behalf of Saldanese Executive Board, Compensated by Saldan Through Mix of Research Contracts and Institutional Debt.
**"Clear and Well Managed" Saldanese Executive Board faces little resistance from leading colleges or faculty and student groups in wake of Bank investment news.
*"Welcome Back" Bank of Valdos makes estimated 2% investment in Alusian Economy in partnership with Alusian State. Large Alusian debt-raise reported with Valdosian assistance.
*"Four Categories" Aeldman-Saldanese research team publishes rating system for cosmic economies, ranking national economies based on GDP-per-capita, size of economy not dependent on trade and technological development. 
**"Advanced Economies" Saldan, Sermaye and Aeldrum enter this category for high GDP-capita, high base economies and high technological development. Authors note uneven economic status of Aeldrum: Aeldrum and her core worlds would, alone, be more economically advanced than Saldan, but poor development in colonies is comparable to third-rank economies.
**"Growth Economies" Alusia, Fialta Union and Kingdom of Druz enter this category. Alusia distinguished by relatively high GDP-per capita and other economic development indicators compared to other economies. Despite high GDP-capita, Union and Druz excluded from Advanced Economy category by "poor economic fundamentals and low technology". All three economies have shown much higher than normal growth, but also high economic instability and significant reliance on trade at substantial deficits.
**"Middle Economies" Fialta Imperium, Thalranese Marches, Orcish Directorate, Deutschreich, New Celestial Confederation and Shantine Empire enter into this category. Middle Economies are characterized by GDP-per capita of between 1.8 and 2 economic units, low to medium rates of base economic growth and mid-level technology. Middle Economies are also relatively resilient to trade shocks, though relationships with Advanced Economies are most crucial. Middle Economies show much lower levels of economic distortion than Growth or Advanced Economies, usually also with more even geographic distribution of economic activity (with exception of highly economically productive "Deutschreich-Alusia Economic Zone"). Relatedly, Middle Economies are notable for absence or modest presence of colonial economies, in contrast with Aeldrum or Alusia.
**"Poor Economies" Republic of Delarma, Nippon States and other Celestial Powers enter this category. Poor Economies are characterized by low GDP-per-capita, low rates of economic growth and low levels of technology. Within category, Nippon States exercise outsized economic power and show heterogeneous economic development, with wealthy Foreign Quarter and Inner Quarter contrasted to large swathes of poorly developed colonies (in mirror of Aeldrum, overall poverty of Nippon States is contrasted with a core more comparable to Middle Economies). Some poor economies are relatively central organized (Middle Kingdom, Kingdom of Aksai), while others border on the anarchic (Kingdom of Veran), but all are characterized by very low economic surpluses and difficulty generating innovation and investment.
**"Unclassified" Brass Cities and Elvish Enclaves were not classified due to their highly unusual economic structures: both powers have very limited market economies, dependent either on extreme command economy or divine grant-system.
*"Diversifying?" Bank-Watchers predict high prioritization of investment in advanced and growth economies. 
*"Aeldman Economy in Perspective" Aeldman Economy Now Exceeds Next Two Largest Economies Combined, Comparable to Combined Celestial Economy. 
*"A Lopsided Cosmos" "Big 4" Great Powers Dominate Cosmic Economy with 61% of GDP
*"Uneven DIP Issuance" Aeldrum issues all 4,000 economic units of DIPs allocated by Treaty of Sevalne. Alusia compensates Bishant in factories rather than DIPs for portion of Shantine gold stocks, and compensates Bishant with further factories not to exercise portion of DIP options. Estimates that Alusia was able to offset substantial part of DIP obligations from Aeldman-Issued DIPs traded to it by Sermaye, Bank of Valdos.
**"Big Holders" Largest international DIP Holders are believed to be Shantine Empire, Bank of Valdos, Republic of Sermaye, Thalranese Marches.
*"Don't Rock the Float" Imperial Powers coordinate on multilateral currency float, recalling gold to national treasuries and ending gold-convertibility of currencies per Treaty of Sevalne.
**"Fiscal Leadership" Serene Duchy of Aeldrum sets international trends with fiscal policy, closely matched by Sermayan partners. Foreign observers call independent Valdosian-led float in Fialta Imperium "exemplary."
***"BUY GOLD NOW" In wake of early news that currency will be floated, Aeldman speculators and "fiscal preppers" hoard gold stocks. Junior Aeldman Finance Official Comments, "They're saving us the trouble of compensating them."
**"Gold is Our Enemy" Marina Nueva stirs Alusian public to enthusiastically support Alusian float in mass-media speech laying out dangers of currency restrictions implied by gold. Alusia experiences higher-than-average inflation during reinflation of currency depleted by years of gold outflows.
**"Unprepared, Unmotivated" Saldanese floating policy is uneven and disorganized, as colleges drag out floating protocols, hoard gold and intellectual controversy over viability of float. Executive Board manages to force through non-convertible crecible, but shows poor ability to control currency in future. Sermayan politician quips, "Our Saldanese friends are simply too sophisticated to agree on a cogent fiscal policy."
**"Uneventful" Currency floats occur largely as planned in other cosmic powers.
*"A Reckoning on Trade" As free-floating currencies find their real value, stark winners and loses stand out. Aeldman ducat takes defining role as major international medium of exchange. 
**"Contraction Pains" In sign of previously overheated economy, currency corrections see economic losses for all powers. Some powers see minor losses in GDP from trade tightening relative to forecasts: 1.2% for Saldan, 1.3% for Aldrum, 2.6% for Imperium. Shantine Empire at 4.4% sees similar pain to most of the minor powers. Fialta Union experiences crash of 15% of GDP, and Alusia leads trade losses with 18% contraction from soaring input prices and tumbling drachma value. 
**"Sell Bonds to Keep 'Em Buying" Minor powers running modest to vast trade deficits, but currencies are stabilized by policy of heavy credit subsidy for trade expenses. Serene Duchy of Aeldrum cuts checks for Thalranese Marches, Kingdom of Druz, Republic of Delarma, Orcish Directorate; Alusian Empire establish loan program for Fialta Union, tied to subsidy programs for Union domestic industry.
***"Sustainable?" Kingdom of Druz and Fialta Union run trade deficits estimated at half and one quarter of economy respectively, casting doubt on long-run viability of financing programs.
**"Unsubsidized Deficit" Alusian Drachma falls to lowest valuation of major currencies on trade deficit of Alusian economy. Factories show strong potential as means of offsetting Alusian trade deficits, but long-term demand uncertain.
*"Factory Demand – Momentary Glut or Sustainable?" Alusia has collected a fortune in payments for factory contracts, but now must fulfill thousands of F1 orders and endowment, integration or transfer of at least four F4s. Long-term profit-making demand expected to be driven by Aeldman resales to Celestial, while hundreds of factories or their profits allocated annually to fulfill treaty obligations to Deutschreich, Thalranese Marches. 
*"Inflation Brings Debt Relief and Surplus for Some, Depreciation for Others" Inflationary policies in Fialta Imperium, Serene Duchy of Aeldrum reduce debt burden for aggressively financed government budgets. Sizable Shantine, Dalthadi and Kirvan treasuries depreciated up to 10% with inflation and currency exchange corrections.
*"Fiscal Discipline" Fialta Imperium reports budget surplus, no debt raises coming into float, thanks to unspecified cost reductions.
*"Debt Keeps Climbing" Aeldman state debts continue to grow faster than government receipts in frenzy of spending and subsidized credit to Aeldman firms and international partners. Aeldman debt remains proportionally smaller than Fialta Imperial debt. Aeldrum is estimated to derive one third of its income from contracts, rather than taxes.
**"Red-Hot Anti-Distortion" Aeldman debt programs to fund sectors of economy outside of State-Industrial Cooperative programs see significant short-run growth, re-equilibration of economy, but no obvious path for long-term equilibrium outside of continued easy money policy.
*"Massive Mechanization" Shantine Imperium witnesses mechanization of over 50 million agricultural jobs, estimated to increase productivity of Shantine non-trade economy by some 4%. Majority of Shantine farmers participating in programs work in land-grant factories within three miles of their farm plots. 
*"Catching up?" Bishant Leads Great Powers on Economic Growth Overall, Shooting up 10%
*"Alusian Tithing" Alusian Religious Council Unveils Tithing Regulations, Granting Churches the Right to Raise Tithe Money from Faithful provided that half of Tithe Income is Allocated to Joint Projects with State. Projects are expected to have religious theme, such as Kirvan Church helping to offset immigration fees and housing costs for Kirvan migrants from Thalranese Marches.
**"Partnership with the Bakken" Alusian State Religious Programming includes multiple appearances by the Bakken Alia, signaling unusual state consent to foreign involvement in Alusian religious life.
*"Tithing Reciprocity?" With relaxation of religious restrictions on Pentacle faiths in Zanevuelan territories, diplomatic rumors of tithing reciprocity between Shantine Kirvan Church and Pentacle Churches in Fialta and Shantine territory.
*"Celestial Exchange Opens" Serene Duchy of Aeldrum uses gold from DIP issuance to fund gold-ducat exchange in Nippon Foreign Quarter and Pin Jump. Exchange to serve a combination currency exchange and fractional reserve banking function as estimated 80% of exchange funds to be issued into Celestial Space as investments to encourage economic growth, with Nippon States and New Celestial Confederacy leading investment strategy.
*"Pass-Through Rights" First Sermayan merchant companies see their goods entering Celestial Space aboard Aeldrum-flagged ships. Nipponese and NCC expected to closely monitor flagging procedures to avoid unrestricted trade.
*"Alusia Celebrates the End of the First 5-Year Plan with the Opening of a Second F3" Empress Illyana reports over 10,000 factories produced and distributed across cosmos. Extraordinary five year growth of Alusia was set back by fiscal adjustments of float, but standards of living remain dramatically higher than at beginning of program.
*"Amidst Float and Deficits, Powers turn to Tariff Regimes" Nippon States, New Celestial Confederation, Thalranese Marches raise tariffs.
**"No Taxes, No Deficit" Thalranese Marches adopt ambitious program of tariff-driven state budget, negotiating with Shantine, Aeldmen and Alusians to prevent reciprocal tariffs. Thalranese import rules bring trade deficit close to zero while stabilizing government budgets.
***"Protecting Celestial Pass-Through" Thalranese guarantee tariff reimbursement for Aeldman goods passing through Marches en-route to Celestial Space.
***"Union and Alusian Exceptions" Alusian Empire secures tariff exemption licenses for Alusian merchants in return for annual factory payments.
***"Tax Enforcement" Serene Duchy of Aeldrum concludes tax-haven prevention agreement with Thalranese Marches, establishing legal and operational measures against tax evasion in tax-free Marches. Alusia, Imperium sign on to program.
**"Gate Fees" Nippon States reach tripartite agreement with New Celestial Confederation, Serene Duchy of Aeldrum for Celestial "gate keeper" powers (Nippon, NCC) to issue tariffs on goods passing in and out of their territories: domestic imports to be tariffed at 5%, with pass-through goods tariffed again at point of exit at additional 5%. 
***"Special Carve-Outs" Serene Duchy of Aeldrum receives license exemptions equivalent to 10% of estimated trade volume, to be issued to Aeldman merchants at state discretion. 
***"Coordination for Ethernet" Aeldman Ethernet Construction in Celestial Space Expands with third NCC theater, financed by Nippon States on condition of NCC coordination on tariff and exchange policy.
International Relations and Affairs:
*"Recruitment Rights" Shantine Empress signs accord with Thalranese Marcher Lords, granting Thalranese annual indemnity for Shantine right to dispatch military recruiters into Marches in event of war with a third party. Marches make no commitment on pricing of recruited forces, leaving terms to discretion of individual lords and mercenary captains. Deal gives Shantine access to estimated recruitment pool of 10 million Fialta retainers and armed gentry.
*"Mind Your Manners" Orcish Directorate Generals sign agreement with Knights of Adarnum Grand Master Arren Kane permitting Knightly Chapter to operate openly in Directorate territory out of Shantine Embassy. "We look forward to a new era of security cooperation with our historic Shantine and Aeldman allies."
*"Minor Power Conference" Serene Duchy of Aeldrum leads conference of Minor Imperial Powers to coordinate on currency float, trade policy and credit. Republic of Sermaye heads Aeldman-backed trade commission to maintain trade at sustainable deficit levels.
**"Still Remembering Bareth" Finance Minister Manuel Emiir Credits vision of late Serene Doge as he leads Aeldman trade policy.
*"Division over Radicalism" Serene Duchy of Aeldrum takes strong stance of cooperation with Knights of Adarnum, Shantine Empire on religious extremism in conjunction with Aeldman Religious Protection Council, while Alusia and Fialta Imperium continue to take lukewarm view of Shantine Kirvan Church and KoA.
*"An Invitation Made Once in Centuries" Nipponese ambassador invites Serene Doge Guillarme du Montreal to a personal visit of the Garden of the Veiled Masters, in celebration of historic cooperation.
*"Vouching for Trade" Working closely with Aeldman diplomats, New Celestial Confederation secures assent to next iteration of Celestial Trade Organization from Middle Kingdom, Nipponese, Yushan, New Nippon and new members, Kingdom of Aksai and Triad Princes. Holdouts are Brass Cities, Mirror Enclaves. Status of Kingdom of Veran in possible organization remains diplomatically fraught over historic enmities. 
*"Come Into My Parlor" Brass Cities receive envoys from Middle Kingdom, Mirror Enclaves, send "marvelous" Musical Machine to Prince of Yushan.
Military, Criminal and Disaster News:
*"All Quiet?" No Large Scale New Troop Recruitment Reported Among Major Powers.
*"Still Behind" Leaked Alusian military report indicates that top brass is not confident Alusian navy could withstand an attack by any of the great powers, "Alusia's present naval capability is comparable to the emergency forces raised by the Thalranese Marches in the Second Coalition War, a country with less than a sixth of our economy." Report concludes dismally, "In any bilateral conflict against a great power, Ahlam is forecast to fall within two months. The Empire is effectively a military client of the 3C, not an ally."
*"Millions of armed people" Estimates from Fialta veteran clubs, church membership and property rolls in new Shantine territories suggest that over ten million ethnic Fialta reside in the territories with access to firearms and prior combat training. Official militia groups swell to five million members. 
*"Armed and State-Backed" Rolls of the Kirvan partisans indicate at least three million Kirvans in region with Shantine-supplied arms and military training. Anonymous Shantine garrison officer comments: "Three million is what the Knights could arm under enemy occupation in the middle of a blitz. If the Empress or the Church gives the word, we can have an armed Kirvan civilian on Zanevuela for every Fialta in two months."
*"Keeping the Peace" At least two million Shantine ground troops remain posted at Zanevuela, with half a million more soldiers distribute among hinterworlds.
*"Still Waiting for Answers" Public Speculation Remains Rampant on Origin of Mysterious Attacks on Aeldman Ethernet Cafes.
*"Who Gets the Tech?" With Aeldman reverse engineering of stealth and trans-lane technology virtually assured, open questions on distribution of technology to other partners by Aeldrum, Imperium. 
*"Bareth is Avenged" Serene Doge du Montreal announces the capture and execution of the terrorists responsible for the death of the late Serene Doge Bareth Aefendt. Aeldman intelligence reports that assassins were a mix of fringe elements: disaffected Thalranese Marchers, unhappy with the resolution of Coalition War II, working alongside Kirvan separatists that became radicalized during the Confederate Crisis. "It is right that justice has been served this day, and that my dear friend Bareth may now rest peacefully in Noloth's weave - but this violence must end. Enough life has been lost in the name of 'righteousness' and 'faith'. The politicians and religious leaders who stoke these flames must cease the petty maneuvering and look to the true well-being of their peoples."
*"The Sword-Arm of Thalran" Thalranese Warrior Priestess Marinia, Ally of late Prince Gunnot, Appears on Firhbank with Sword of Dres'Fialt, Retinue of "Sword Brethren." Marinia leads raids against Fialta Union and Thalranese Marcher territory along poorly policed land border. While Marcher Lords dismiss Marinia as "a bandit with a replica blade," and Prince Paloctus responds, "Who?" when asked about Marinia, tales from border towns say that the Priestess has acquired folk hero status and a growing band of followers disaffected with local rulers.
Culture and General Interest:
*"Where's my hovercar?" Since Aeldman acquisition, rollout of consumer hover technology appears stalled.
*"Aether Trek" Alusian Empress announces vast project to launch a mobile, self-sufficient etherbase for off-lane etheric exploration. Hundreds of thousands of workers mobilized for construction, and millions of applications for crew positions received from jubilant Alusian citizens. 
**"Exporting Alusia" The Base will feature a multicultural, multireligious officer cadre, intensive material recycling capabilities, hydroponic systems to feed up to one hundred and sixty thousand crew and sailors of affiliated ships, and systems for material extraction and fabrication to produce colonial habitations and modular factories.
**"The Best and Brightest in Bulk" The Base will require ten thousand engineers, ten thousand agronomists and ten thousand assorted base crew, in addition to tens of thousands of manufactory workers and soldiers.
*"We Aim for the Highest Standards for the Common People" Alusia plans for full health coverage for 95% of subjects within five years.
*"Make the Journey" Patriarch Jan Issues General Religious Call for Faithful to Undertake Pilgrimage to Bishant -- "Be Known to Kirva!"
**"An Unusual Liberty" Alusia promises 25 million travel visas to Alusian Kirvans for pilgrimage, to be distributed by Patriarch of Ahlam.
**"Faith Tourism" Tens of millions of Aeldman Kirvans join waiting lists for Church-subsidized tickets to Bishant.
**"Unprecedented Access" Soaring incomes, cheaper and safer travel, extensive Church subsidies contribute to burgeoning participation in pilgrimage – once the province of the wealthy or once-in-a-lifetime faith journeys, international travel is becoming a popular activity. 
*"An Empire of Blood" New social documentary series from Patriarch Jan on OnlyFlames examines "ways that slavery is a fundamental aspect of Fialta identity, culture, religion, and economy," in searing critique of collaboration with Pentacle faithful.
**"Burn Them All!" The Church of Dalthad releases a counter-series of documentaries featuring "heart-wrenching interviews" from those who were witness to Mataxes' cruelties towards Fialtan PoWs
***"They're Coming for Us!" Fialta off-duty soldier shoots three Kirvan clergy after mass at newly built Kirvan church on Hybern, where secret copy of "An Empire of Blood" was exhibited. Soldier is beaten to death by Kirvan parishioners, leading nearby Fialta to intervene. Seven Fialta, Thirty Kirvans die in resulting shootout and subsequent violence over two days. Fialta military commander brings five Fialta servicemen before Court-Martial. Mayor survives assassination attempt after closing Kirvan Church.
*"There was freedom in working the land" in Bishant, serf-turned cleric collects stories of unhappy peasants forced into factories
*"Freezing Discourse "lecturer at the Saint Alexis Seminary on Bishant is threatened with stoning for a lecture on the historical dangers of overreaching emperors
*"As Cosmos Looks On, Test for Tolerance" Shantine Empress faces crisis as Grand Captain Mirbus of Fialta Militia leads tens of thousands of Fialta in armed public worship of Pentacle Gods. Empress issues OnlyFlames speech in which she calls for greeting "New Shantine Brothers and Sisters" with open arms. Empress issues decree reversing restrictions on public worship and repair of Churches, to jubilation from Fialta subjects, public trepidation from Kirvan leaders. Preacher Mataxes, "Every secret Pentacle-Lover in this Empire will descend on Zanevuela to exploit the empress's generosity. They've learned they can get what they want by threatening force, and they won't stop."