Superforecaster

Superforecaster Qualities are:
Cautious: Nothing is certain
Humble: Reality is infinitely complex
Nondeterministic: What happens is not meant to be and does not have to happen
In their abilities and thinking styles, they tend to be:
Actively open-minded: Belief are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected
Intelligent and Knowledgeable, with a "need for cognition": Intellectually curious, enjoy puzzles and mental challenges
Reflective: Introspective and self-critical
Numerate: Comfortable with numbers
In their methods of forecasting they tend to be:
Pragmatic: Not wedded to any idea or agenda
Analytical: Capable of stepping back from the tip-of-your-nose perspective and considering and synthesize them into their own
Dragonfly-eyed: Value diverse views and synthesize them into their own
Probalistic: Judge using many grades of maybe
Thoughtful updates: When facts change, they change their minds
Good intuitive psychologist: Aware of the value of checking thinking for cognitive and emotional biases
In their work ethic, they tend to have:
A growth mindset: Believe it's possible to get better
Grit: Determined to keep at it however long it takes
==Origin==
Authors of this information is coming from the book that I read: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner)
Category:Futurology