116675-crafting-overcharge-percentage-of-failure-a-rage-post

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The overcharge percentage of failure in crafting is completely *cupcaking* misleading and wrong.  I am an avid crafter on 5 different characters.  I repeatedly have things with a 12-19% chance of failure repeatedly fail.  I recently had a crafting 15% chance of failure - fail 5x in a row.  I believe there should be approximately a 1 in 13,000 chance of a that happening (an event with 15% likelihood occurring 5x in a row).  I am so sick of losing materials over this.  Why the *cupcake* is the fail percentage listed if it's completely wrong???
 
OK, I'm going back to crafting now, because I love it, despite this shortcoming.  I just had to make a post about this while my nerd rage was peaking.	
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			Bad luck? I normal go with 5-15% and have only had one thing fail out of several. It is possible to flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 times.	
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			I think the problem is that you need to craft like a real man.  Anything less than 40% overcharge is pointless.	
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RNG is RNG.
Chua crafted 5 items in row with 40% failure chance and worked fine, then had 3 failures in row with 10% chance.
Is just bad luck.	
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The overcharge percentage of failure in crafting is completely *cupcaking* misleading and wrong.  I am an avid crafter on 5 different characters.  I repeatedly have things with a 12-19% chance of failure repeatedly fail.  I recently had a crafting 15% chance of failure - fail 5x in a row.  I believe there should be approximately a 1 in 13,000 chance of a that happening (an event with 15% likelihood occurring 5x in a row).  I am so sick of losing materials over this.  Why the *cupcake* is the fail percentage listed if it's completely wrong???
 
OK, I'm going back to crafting now, because I love it, despite this shortcoming.  I just had to make a post about this while my nerd rage was peaking.
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It is also a common misconception that individual events compound statistics like you are speaking. Each event is it's own statistical chance. Flip a coin 9 times and it lands on tails, that doesn't mean that the next coin flip is any less likely to be tails. In that scenario it's still 50%, regardless of how many millions of times your coin flip lands on the same thing. 
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This is important enough to be emphasized.    The previous roll has no impact on the statistical percentage of the following role.   Each successive roll would have a 50% chance of being tails.
 
The scenario in which percentages compound is say...  pulling balls out of a bag.  You have 10 balls, 1 red, 9 blue.    You have a 1% chance of pulling the red ball first pull.   Pull a blue, and you now have a 1/9 chance, 1/8, etc on down the line.
 
Or you're playing price is right and you have to guess 3 numbers in sequence correctly. You have 0 9 8 7, Lets say the first number will never be 0, so you have a 1/3 chance of choosing the first number correctly, then a 1/3 of choosing the second number correctly, then a 1/2 chance of choosing the third number correctly.  So there is a 0.33*0.33*0.5=5.5% chance of having all the numbers correct, because each successive guess is affected by the previous.
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I just got really annoyed today when I wasted 5x hybrid power cores and 10x infused bones (about 50g at going prices) on a 15% chance of failure.
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You have a weird definition of crafting a lot.  You can hardly reject the null hypothesis at any significant confidence level with a sample size of five.
 
Anecdotally, I've found that whenever I play it safe with low percentages I am just disappointed.  Even if I do manage to get one with great slots, my base item is neutered because I didn't take a risk with the overcharge.  And the failures were super annoying, because I was trying to minimize them.  But if you change your view, from minimizing failures to maximizing results, and accept that its a numbers game and the only way to win is to throw hundreds of attempts at the system, failures stop mattering.  So now I try to craft at least 100 at a time with as high an overcharge as I can go, and I am better off for it.
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I do know that each chance is it's own percentage.  Let's take the coin example.  On each toss of a coin, there is a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails.  But to calculate the probability of getting heads mutliple times in a row, you multiply that 50% chance.  So the probability - before ever flipping the coin - of getting heads twice in a row is 0.5 x 0.5, which is .25 (25%).  On each flip there is a 50% chance, but you can calculate the probability of successive events using that independent 50% chance.
 
So in my example of failing on a 15% chance 5x in a row, the probability of that happening is 0.15^5, which is .00008 (rounded to the nearest 100-thousandth).  Or .008%, which is approximately a 1 in 13,000 chance as I originally said.
 
This has happened to me so much, it's more than just RNG bad luck.  I craft A LOT, and I have since beta.  Weaponsmith, Tailor, Outfitter, Armorer and Architect (architect crafting obviously doesn't apply here).  I just got really annoyed today when I wasted 5x hybrid power cores and 10x infused bones (about 50g at going prices) on a 15% chance of failure.  I highly doubt that I got a 1 in 13,000 event in this instance.  I think it's far more likely that the 15% chance of failure was wrong.  I'll play around with some crafting percentages and log the results so I have hard data to report.  My experience from months of crafting is that the percentage indicator is highly unreliable and is not showing a true figure.  
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It's just a %. It's possible to fail 100 attempts at 1% failure rate.
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The fact is that the effective probability of a leaf falling where it lands is essentially zero, but every fall I have to rake them all up. Point being improbable things happen all the time, you just don't really notice them. Most likely, you're just having a run of bad luck... but there is always and other improbable item, that the RNG itself IS skewed. Hum, improbables vs. improbables... which to choose?
 
Anecdotally, I dont' craft terribly often. I only overcharge when I build something for myself... which has only failed me once so it must be skewed in my favor. You can't have them fix it :)	
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The fact is that the effective probability of a leaf falling where it lands is essentially zero, but every fall I have to rake them all up. Point being improbable things happen all the time, you just don't really notice them.
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Hum, improbables vs. improbables... which to choose?
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That's what the various statistical tests are for.  If someone is crafting hundreds of items each day, he should have an easy time rejecting the null hypothesis.  But if his best example is five unlikely failures in a row then he has his work cut out for I've had I've had th
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			I do pay attention.  You get one piece of junk for a failure, so its fairly easy to tell how many you've had, and I've never noticed anything out of whack for large crafting queues.  I don't see the point of considering isolated runs of 4-6 as indicative of anything except that humans like to look for patterns, especially since I've seen it both ways (at 47% failure rate a run of 4-6 on either side is unusual).	
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			I think you are fundamentally wrong with your understanding of probabilities.	
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I do pay attention.  You get one piece of junk for a failure, so its fairly easy to tell how many you've had, and I've never noticed anything out of whack for large crafting queues.  I don't see the point of considering isolated runs of 4-6 as indicative of anything except that humans like to look for patterns, especially since I've seen it both ways (at 47% failure rate a run of 4-6 on either side is unusuOI'm oging t
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I think you are fundamentally wrong with your understanding of probabilities.
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			SMH... Well first off you'd have to test this in the millions to see the true probability of actual failure rate. If you crafted 2 at 15% failure rate and 1 failed and 1 succeeded, you could easily say that the number are wrong the failure rate is actually 50%. On the other hand if you crafted it 500 times and all 500 times you failed, your personal success rate at crafting is 0%. The rate of failure is 15% in your case, stop over-thinking it. Unless you can get in the code and see what they have programmed, any "data" you provide is irrelevant.	
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SMH... Well first off you'd have to test this in the millions to see the true probability of actual failure rate. If you crafted 2 at 15% failure rate and 1 failed and 1 succeeded, you could easily say that the number are wrong the failure rate is actually 50%. On the other hand if you crafted it 500 times and all 500 times you failed, your personal success rate at crafting is 0%. The rate of failure is 15% in your case, stop over-thinking it. Unless you can get in the code and see what they have programmed, any "data" you provide is irrelevant.
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So far it's not looking good for my theory.  I realize this is way too small of a sample set to be meaningful, and I'm going to keep updating my spreadsheet, but I have to stop for today and I wanted to provide some type of update. 
Predicted % of fail       Actual  Failure Rate     Attempts     Success       Level                    Random Bonus        Skill              Item
20.00%                       30.00%                            10                 7           Apprentice                        N                  Tailor             Fibermod Silk Jacket
29.00%                       13.33%                            15                13          Expert                              N                  Tailor             Fibermod Starloom Jacket
24.00%                       26.67%                            15                11          Expert Research               Y                  Outfitter         Epochos Helm
29.00%                       30.00%                            10                 7           Expert                               Y                  Armorer         Galactium Legs
19.00%                         33.33%                           12                 8           Expert                              Y                  Armorer         Galactium Proto Helm
26.00%                       30.00%                            20                14          Expert Research               Y               Weaponsmith   Adventus CW-4 Magma Refibrillators
39.00%                       55.56%                            18                 8           Expert Research               Y               Weaponsmith   Adventus 4 Pistols
12.00%                        5.00%                             20                19          Expert Research               N               Weaponsmith   Adventus 3 Heavy Gun
25.00%                       13.33%                            15                13          Expert                               N                  Outfitter         Warden Lithetek Custom Dustcoat
 For anyone that is interested, I'll post additional results once I have a larger pool of data.  But so far my limited amount of documented data is showing that I'm wrong and there is no problem with the crafting percentage of failure.  There are some variations in percentages, but those just look like noise due to the small sample set.	
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			Do you have a link to your spreadhseet? Kind of hard to make sense of that ^	
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Do you have a link to your spreadhseet? Kind of hard to make sense of that ^
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			I'm still building this spreadsheet, but as I collect more data it's starting to bear out my theory that the percentage of failure is wrong in some instances.  For example, today while crafting epochos medium gloves at a 24% chance of failure, I failed 5x in a row and then succeeded on the 6th attempt.  It seems unlikely to me that the 24% chance of failure is correct here.  I think that some crafting set ups give the wrong percentage -- it might be related to certain circuit mismatches, certain overcharge levels, etc -- I just think that somewhere behind the scenes, in some instances, the calculation for the percentage of failure gets wonky.	
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I'm still building this spreadsheet, but as I collect more data it's starting to bear out my theory that the percentage of failure is wrong in some instances.  For example, today while crafting epochos medium gloves at a 24% chance of failure, I failed 5x in a row and then succeeded on the 6th attempt.  It seems unlikely to me that the 24% chance of failure is correct here.  I think that some crafting set ups give the wrong percentage -- it might be related to certain circuit mismatches, certain overcharge levels, etc -- I just think that somewhere behind the scenes, in some instances, the calculation for the percentage of failure gets wonky.
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All I'm trying to do is identify whether or not something is wrong with the crafting percentage of failure.  I'm surprised so many crafters don't agree, and that's making me question whether I'm correct.  
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