Peter Schwartz

·       Author: Peter Schwartz
o   Strategy consultant/Pres of Global Business Network
·       Publishing: Crown Business:1991/6
·       Central Proposition:
o   Through exploration of realistic scenario-based planning, an organization can remain more nimble and prepared to operate in an uncertain future.  "The scenario process provides a context for thinking clearly about the impossibly complex array of factors that affect any decision...The end result is not an accurate picture of tomorrow, but better decisions about the future."   - xiv, 9
§  ***Good example: Rehearse for 3 plays and you don't know what you're going to perform until you walk out on stage and observe the set detail - 191
§  Again, this seems like something that's more review for this level of graduate course - also reflects JOPP again
·       Supporting Information
o   Make strategic "decisions that will be sound for all plausible scenarios" - xiv
o   Not saying scenarios WILL exist, just that they COULD - 13
o   Research is key - both about the particular scenarios and about the world in general (become well-read, kp an open mind) - 60/68
§  What to look for: Sci/tech, perception-shaping events (watch TV to understand what ppl believe), music (still true?), fringes (not yet legitimized but not fully rejected by center) - 62-69
o   JOPP
§  Driving forces (often fall w/in society, tech, economics, politics, environment - 105) = COGs - 101
§  Predetermined Elements = Assumptions (either true or will consider them true to allow planning to proceed) - 109
§  Critical Uncertainties = CCIRs (find them by questioning your assumptions about predetermined elements - 115) - 114
§  Red Team - 196
§  Key Indicators - 198
o   Seems to have gotten it pretty spot-on w/ global teenager - un/der-employed and disaffected w/ archipelago created by connectivity - 119; susceptible to pandering (AQ) - 127
o   "String of rock videos about fighter pilots - 125
o   **Types of Plots (Good memory joggers/get creativity flowing)
o   
§  Winners & Losers - zero-sum competition - 141
§  Challenge & Response - continual adjustment to overcome challenges - 144
§  Evolution - e.g. technology or perhaps urban growth - 147
§  ETC: Revolution, Cycles, Infinite Possibility, Lone Ranger, My Generation (cultural aspects can play a part) - 151-156
§  You should train yourself to recognize plots - 160
o   Be wary of unbroken line - assuming conditions that change that do not engender any response - 159
o   Scenarios for 2005
§  New Empires (173), Market World (rising tide raises all boats - efficiency of market) (178), Change w/out Progress (competition run rabid - oscillations, very little rhyme or reason) (184)
o   Off the rails - "unacceptable practices" - 208