116925-impact-of-runic-elemental-flux

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I spent some time reviewing the crafting components for the Runic Elemental Flux (REF), their availability, and relative value. Below are my conclusions. I make a lot of assumptions, however I tried to be conservative.
 
TL;DR
The Runic Eldan Flux will be very expensive and hard to obtain because of its use of Eldan Fusion and Eldan Earth signs.
 
 
The REF requires four components from four different trade skills. These four components are combined by the Technologist into the REF. Each component requires considerable resources:Component Cost to Craft (at current CX and vender prices)1x Smart Cloth (Tailor)5x Starloom Cloth 60s5x Sign of Logic - Eldan 12g50s2x Sign of Fusion - Eldan 30g1x Eldan Acceleron 37stotal 43g37s1x Vitalium Ingot (Armorer)4x Galactium Chunk 88s5x Sign of Life - Eldan 10g2x Sign of Fusion - Eldan 30g2x Starshard 70stotal 41g58s1x Tech Leather (Outfitter)3x Augmented Leather 54s5x Sign of Logic - Eldan 12g50s2x Sign of Fusion - Eldan 30g2x Primal Pelt 58stotal 43g62s1x Corium Acceleron (Weaponsmith)4x Galactium Chunk 88s5x Sign of Earth - Eldan 45g2x Sign of Fusion - Eldan 30g1x Eldan Acceleron 37stotal 76g25sTotal 2p4g74s let's call it 2 platinum.
A few things stand out upon review:.1. Based on the current vender and commodity exchange prices the minimum cost to create the REF is ~2 plat.2. The REF requires 8 Eldan- Fusions.3. The REF requires 5 Eldan- Earths.More on the above later...There are 12 pieces of equipped gear that contain rune slots. 11 will have four rune slots an average (with Drop 3). The 12th piece of gear, the gadget, will still be limited to two rune slots. There will certainly be exceptions to these numbers as some gear will have 5-6 slots, others will have 3 slots.Let’s assume a toon will have 46 rune slots on average. Anticipate 1/3 of those slots will want/need to be rerolled for min-maxing. We’re looking at an average of each toon needing 15 REFs (.33*46=15).To be ultra conservative let us suppose that only players who are raiding are going to want to reroll rune slots. Let’s also guestimate that there are 15 faction guilds currently raiding on the server. This will mean that a minimum of 300 toons (15*20) will need 15 REFs each; a total of 4,500 REFs.There will be a rush on the market when REFs become available. The raiding player base will want to reroll runes. A conservative estimate is that we’re looking at a need of 4,500 REFs at release of Drop 3.Fusion EldansEach REF requires 8 Eldan Fusions to craft. Assuming 4,500 EEFs, this means that 36,000 Eldan Fusions are needed. Over the past week, there’s been an average of 350 Eldan Fusions listed per day on the commodity exchange (CX). Many people are holding on to Fusion Eldans in anticipation of Drop 3, just how many Fusion Eldans are out there in peoples inventories is hard to guess, but even anticipating 10% of those raiding have 100 Eldan Fusions in their inventory only yields 3,000 Eldan Fusions.There are three viable farm spots for Eldan Fusions . Each spot drops 10-15 Fusions an hour. 24 hours of continuous farming will yield 1,080 Fusion Eldans server wide (assuming no phasing). Best case scenario is that all these Fusions are posted on the CX. Unfortunately even taking into account the amount estimated to be in people’s inventories, we’re still looking at least one full month after Drop 3 for there to be enough available Eldan Fusions in order to craft the anticipated demand of REFs.Eldan Fusions may be a bottleneck.Eldan EarthsEach REF requires 5 Eldan Earths to craft. Assuming 4,500 EEFs, this means that 22,500 Eldan Earths are needed. Over the past week, there’s been an average of 150 Eldan Earths listed on the commodity exchange (CX). Unlike with Eldan Fusions, people are not stocking up on Eldan Earths.There are no high drop rate farm spots for Eldan Earths. Best places are likely the Shards of Aggregor in Crimson Badlands and Augmented Soldiers in Northern Wastes. Drop rates are atrocious, expect ~5 per hour.I don’t anticipate there ever being enough Eldan Earths to meet demand. They will be a bottleneck.ConclusionThe above doesn’t take into account all the other items that the Eldan Fusions and Earths are needed for. Nor does it take into account that Eldan Fusions are needed for the more powerful rune sets.2 platinum, plus the automatic 12% mark up to cover the CX tax for the Runic Elemental Flux would be the ideal price. This won’t happen. Prices are likely to start at 4plat and only go up from there as the Eldan Fusion and Earth signs are depleted (especially the Earths).There may be merit in an argument that Drop 3 also brings a rework to salvaging that allows a greater chance to drop runes and signs, however it unlikely to make significant difference.
 
What are your thoughts? Am I way off base with the numbers above?	
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Your numbers looks fine.
 
New stuff in a game is always expensive and people are already stock piling in order to craft it. Eventually the market will be saturated and the price will eventually begin to fall, because someone will ALWAYS under cut.
 
Also I don't think 4 plat is A LOT for an extra rune, if you actually play the game.	
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Thank you for your feedback BroFist; I appreciate it.
 
It's not a lot in of itself, yet let's take your raiding mains and alts into account. Say you wanted to maximize rune slot and type. You're likely looking at rerolling 15 slots on each toon. Using just the three toons in your signature you're looking at rerolling 45 slots. This is a total of 180 plat if you're spend 4 plat on each reroll.
 
The above assumes that there will be enough Runic Elemental Fluxes for you to do your rerolls. There likely won't be.
 
Supply won't get close to meeting demand because there is no way to farm enough Eldan Earths to craft the Corium Acceleron which is needed in order to craft the elemental flux.	
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And btw I don't expect this to be something people just slap on everything. 99% of the time its gonna be spent on DS drops / Eldan gauntlets.
 
By the time you get a new pieces you should have 4(or 5 if u need the rune mats) plat	
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Very few runes will need to be rerolled.. As a stalker, even if I get water, I can now put brutality on it which will be equal to attack power/pvp power.
 
Really the only need to reroll a rune will be because you're 11 out of 12 spell weave and need to turn that life rune into something that will hopefully allow you to socket the 12th spell weave rune as an example	
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I was aboard this train before I logged onto the PTR.
 
You get 4 pr. craft, so its not as unreasonable as it sounded before I look patchnotes through, and logged into PTR.
 
Same with potions, its raised to 3 pr. craft aswell.
 
Lots of QoL changes to Techonologist.	
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I was aboard this train before I logged onto the PTR.
 
You get 4 pr. craft, so its not as unreasonable as it sounded before I look patchnotes through, and logged into PTR.
 
Same with potions, its raised to 3 pr. craft aswell.
 
Lots of QoL changes to Techonologist.
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Thank you for your input folks.
 
I concede that with Drop 3 there will be a wider variety of runes that’ll beneficial, however running for the primary stat will be the new king. Rune slots will need to be rerolled. 
 
Four per craft would be great and is a lot more tenable than only getting one per craft. However, I think that Eldan Earths will still be a generally unavailable; it all comes back to no reliable way to farm them, even with 4x REFs created per craft there are still a metric ton needed. It’s also important to remember that Eldan Earths will still be an important part of rune sets.
 
Where will all the required Eldan Earths come from? This is my concern. 	
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I think you're absolutely right about the fact that Fusion and Earth signs are going to be a bottle neck. There are however two things that reduce the bottleneck effect:
 
a ) People have been stacking up these signs for about 2 months now. The details of the crafting recipes have been released for quite a while, and many people started stacking elemental signs as soon as any information about the upcoming rune changes was available.
b ) Personally I do expect the salvaging changes to have a significant impact on the amount of Eldan Signs flowing into the economy. I certainly have no numbers about which portion of eldan signs currently come from salvaging compared to loot drops, but personally I regularly sell off a few of each from simply actively playing the game and salvaging the items I don't need.
 
I expect that these two facts significantly increase the supply for these signs once drop 3 hits, and I doubt the prices will skyrocket from what they are now. The current prices, say 20g per earth, is already reflecting the upcoming changes. Before any info on the upcoming changes was out, Eldan Eearth Signs were basically vendor trash, selling for around 1g each in CX.
 
*EDIT* Read the OP again and edited point 2.
			
				
	Edited November 7, 2014 by Armeleon	
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Thank you for your input folks.
 
I concede that with Drop 3 there will be a wider variety of runes that’ll beneficial, however running for the primary stat will be the new king. Rune slots will need to be rerolled. 
 
Four per craft would be great and is a lot more tenable than only getting one per craft. However, I think that Eldan Earths will still be a generally unavailable; it all comes back to no reliable way to farm them, even with 4x REFs created per craft there are still a metric ton needed. It’s also important to remember that Eldan Earths will still be an important part of rune sets.
 
Where will all the required Eldan Earths come from? This is my concern. 
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Hopefully the salvage buff will alleviate some of the upcoming "sign crunch".
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Useless to you but valuable to others and those other people may get runes that are useless to them but valuable to you...
 
Carbine just created a new market	
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Useless to you but valuable to others and those other people may get runes that are useless to them but valuable to you...
 
Carbine just created a new market
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			Your numbers are not right. Look properly. U did not multiply by quantity of each mat. And the subsequent poster says the numbers were fine... The new defile quest shall help you with your maths. LOL	
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