Ambiental collapse

Sekwent id 1987 Brundtland report, Posdaril antslehnken est un antslehnkensmodus quod correspondt ia naudhs ios present aun compromitte id imkan iom future generations ad corresponde ira wi naudhs. Inhaltti dwo cleich-concepts : 
- id concept om "naudhs", besonters ia essential naudhs em paupers tienxia, quim id megst prioritato dehbht se daht;
- id dayi om limitations imposen ab id stand om technologia ed social organisation ei imkan os ambient ad corresponde present ed futur naudhs.''
Multghi international conferences hant piten udtolke tienxia boidsa kay salve ambient : 
- 1972, Stockholm sommett. Prest international act os mobilisation de ia questions om antslehnken ed ambient ye tienxia maschtab. 
- 1988, Creation ios Interngouvernemental Expertengrupp de Climatchange (IEGC) - samghat im megsten tienxia mualims de climat. Ti experts hant ka mission tyices un critic chehxen de id publien tienxia scientific literature kay sbringhes tois un relevant synthese ed exclare I decisors. 
- 1992, Rio Sommett. Lancet id concept os posdaril antslehnken kneigvend-ye ep id Brundtland report ed weidt un actionsplan pro id XXIsto secule kalt "Agenda 21". 
- 1997, Kyoto Sommett. Ids final act, id Kyoto Protocol, defineiht concret meids kay jidal protie climatchange ed un enovercalendar tom meids. 
- 2007, Bali Sommett. Ids objective est panges un itnermap defineihndo ia points inclusu do id pos-Kyoto traiteit quod entret gwis in 2012 ed id negociationen calendar kay panges tod traiteit. Ia sehkwnd sommetts (Copenhaghen in 2009, Rio +20 in 2012, Doha in 2012) ne hant permiss lites perodh decisive-ye dayir questions bohnden ad climat change. 
- 2015 : 21st climatconference (COP 21) in Paris. 
- 2016 do 2018 : 22t COP do 24t COP
- 2019 : ob id crise quod scutti Chile, id 25to COP planen pro Santiago in November muss in Madrid in December... aun resultat. 
Pos trigim yars existence, sei tarikhems tsay do id Brundtland report, ed meis quem quargim sei hissabmos ab id 1972 Stockholm conference, posdaril antslehnken obkwehcti deuysus. Also homologhihsit Article 2 ios Uniet Nations Quaderconvention de Climat Changes (1992), bertor oiters iom dwo subjectives os posdaril antslehnken - prevene un dangereus transformation os tienxia ambient ed yinjier os climat - ia signatar lands stabilise [...] ia taneks om woenschice gasa ye un nivell quod oistambht cada dangereus anthropic perturbation ios climat systeme. Api, instet un stabilisation, hams prispohct un bfuyi crosct iom emissions om woenschice gasa, ed id tanek os carbon dioxide (CO²) in id atmosphere udmikdarti taiper 400 parts pro million (ppm). Temperatures habsient augen inter 3 ed meis quem 4° ye id end ios secule, un eminent-ye dangereus prospect. Face to, est bfuxiongo naporge id objective os 2° unte international negociations. Nege realitat ne est uno megil kjigiau pro quel pretendti transforme id. Kam pelu climatologs, iti Jean Jouzel, io constate od id izharn objective unios mutawassit warmen quod naiw exceddiet 2°c binisbat id climat ios preindustrial zaman est nuntos exterschaecheing, nibo tyehct uno miracle. Ed id situation esti tem degradet ep alter ambiental fronts. 
Dayir dwoter objective - id reduction iom inegalitats - id facit est analog. Nespekent id antslehnken iom megil emergent mercats, inegalitats ne hant zacrohscen unte ia akhir decennia. Un recent OECA reporto denuncet tod augen in ia veut industrielands, id rlungdwan iom fruits os crosct ab 0,1% im richest ed ia negative effects tos situation pro economia. 
Id UNO hant sanken id constaten tos deuysen med id publication in 2012, ye id predien ios Terra Sommett os Rio, sayct "+ 20", uns report signet besonters ab Gro Harlem Brundtland, perodhsedd ex 1982 do 1987 ios Mund Commission de Ambient ed Antslehnken, quod hieb dught id report behrnd ays nam. Tod nov report kyunggiawt id fark inter ia objectives os posdaril antslehnken ed id realitat in id regard iom megil tienxia pfehrsters (CO² emissions, preservation os biodiversitat...). Yed ischbate i autors id relevance ios notion, affirmend od id 1987 report, quod eet exact ye tod zaman, remant it nundiens. 
Posdaril antslehnken, ka gwayt bezielend prevene ta distulas, hat punor lust cada relevance. Idghi probleme neti est anticipe ia sontern reduce ia ed, ye id ambiental nivell, se prepare uni nov era, kwit ab uno massive impact iom menscacitivitats, kalt "anthropocene" : un era unte-yod dehlcsiemos gwive ep un schrehnkend terran surface, hostiler dia menscgwit ed ormer de ressurces. 
==Id exhaustion iom ressurcen==
Ia ressurces nuden pro economic opos sont qua tragmos ex ghom ed enderghom : fossil ressurces, ruyds, sand pro industrial neud, aqua, biotic ressurces. Samt un tienxia population om meis quem 7 milliards, ed maghses om 9,6 milliards in 2050 sekwent id UNO, id quasi-totalitat tom ressurcen est sub tension. Ye tienxia maschtab, meis quem 80% ios primar energia consummen cadayar est ois fossils. Energia skeipt tik-ye 4% os tienxia BIP bet, aun id, wiswa menscopsa collabient. Eti, nekam quo id current bahmen suggest, ne "producmos" energia. Ghehdmos tik-ye kape, transporte ed transforme id. Api, ielg tom operations consummt energia. Med alya werds, tik-ye contet, dayir energia, id Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI = "energia reiken po energia investion") quo correspondt id ratio inter id quantitat os extragen energia ed tod necessar ad ids extraction. Habmos ja consummen circa id dwidel iom lyogsen om conventional naft ed gas bet, bilhassa, consummos stets meis energia kay extrage ta ressurces. Prevst, eet kafi investe oin barel naft kay extrage cent ex id. Nundiens, id mutawassit EROI lyehct ambh 1/20, sehncti do 1/4 au 1/5 pro Canadas darvsands ed do 1/3 pro gehnghiannafts. Ye smulker id EROI, ye hoger id carboncost ielgs nov barel. Id EROI panct id absolut limite ed ne importet id vehrten iom etileikwnd lyogsen. Ta sehnkend makhsouls mehlde un tid kun nies global imkans om fossil energias, ed preter os naft, meincsiet ex yar do yar. 
Id sam ghehldt pro ruyds ed metalls. Transghi un certain taneksoyl, biht impossible extrage ia, energia esend id limitanr factor. Id exempel os cuper est exclarant : sei tienxia population leudiet do 9 milliards leuden, ia behandet cuperquantitats ne permittient skipes un electric netwehrg equivalent ad noster. Id mutawassit tanek os glaughruyd hat eti uperliten ex 1,8% in 1930 do 0,5% nundiens. Ed exist neid substitutionsproduct : aluminium, excellent conductor, seuwt brands. Pro pleist metalls qua neudmos, smos ghi ye id predien uns collapse niesen reuydimkans. 
Id sand, ne tod iom deserts (quod est bfuciautaung ibs industrial neuds) sontern tod iom sreumens, gwehmt cort. Ersatza tehrbent bihe vant ep id marbudmen po un alt energetic ed ambiental cost. Id sam ghehldt, in sem lands, pro wed. Ids industrial ed bilhassa agrent neuds hant-se multipliet, 70% os tienxia wedconsumm est consecret ad irrigation. Nuntos, sem fluvs neti nake id mar (id Colorado in ia Uniet Stats os America, id Gehlbo Fluv in China, etc) ed mult enderghom reserves sont exhausen we sal-exhausen, kam tod os Ogallala, lyehgend ender ia mier segetal US Stats. 
Dayir biotic ressurces, id facit est id sam. Nature dadwt al mensci megil services qua corresponde els gwitsnaudhs : ressurces (fibers, opsens, dreu...), regulation (climat, wed, swolen fertilitat...), cultural services, khauristat ed wirts (nemsa au iser speces...), ed, fin-ye, tehlservices (swolformation, cycle iom nutrients ed primaro production). 60% tom servicen sont degradet ed alters sa-bihnt it. Meis quem 90% im yaght pisken hant disparihn. Id moment kun id ecologic print os noster civilisation udimkanti Terras biologia biht auser cadayar. Ed ia 2 milliards weikern exspecten ep id planete pre 2050 nient simplifie id probleme.
 In Augusto 2019 hant i Islendings dedien tod memorplack ei Okjökull, ei prest glehdjer quod hat peritaht.
"Brev ei future"
"Ok est id prest islensk glehdjer leusus sien titule. 
Unte ia niebsta 200 yars sientwert vasya glehdjers ios land sam-ye lites. 
Tod monument est in weitwoddia od wey woidam
quod est wakyend ed quod tehrpti bihe kwohrn. 
Tik tu woidst kweter wey kwohram semquod."
Augusto 2019
415 ppm CO²
==Ia perturbations ios biosphere==
Id erosion os biodiversitat est un tem alarmant phenomen quem sem mualims kehnse od prispehcmos id "sixt en-masse specenextinction" ye id maschtab iom geologic aiwen. Est khaliban id resultat om menscenactivitats qua contribuent id destruction iom natural habitats, id etireuyden iom ressurcen, climat change auti id diffusion om invasive speces. 
Id relevantst pfehrster in id ambiental xeimen esti tod iom planetar hadhs, elaboren ab Johan Rockström ed eys swoin in 2009 ed ubnuwen in Januar 2015 ab Will Steffen. Ia nev enevidencen hadhs ios planetar systeme sont : id carboncycle; id erosion os biodiversitat; ia cycles om nitrogen ed phosphor; id acidascen iom oceans; id depletion os stratospheric ozone; id neud om swols ed wed; id chemic pollutions; id introduction om rhayir metalls; aerosols. Mae uperlites ta planetar hadhs garantiet id manteino ios status-quo tem sislew al mensc unte Holocene (yani ia 11700 akhir yars). Aun id prevstic climat, neter id adgumt os agriculture, ni id weisen iom megil civilisations habiet est possible. In 2009, tri tom nev hadhs eent uperliten; leitti de climat ed carboncycle; biodiversitat ed id genetic ormerascen iom populations; ia cycles om nitrogen ed phosphor. Id ubnuwen ios inkapemstudye in 2015 deict id uperleiten uns quart hadh, tos ios neud iom swols ed deforestation. Ta hadhs nischane id entren do un danger zone. Will Steffen ed eys swoin insiste yaschi id systemic kweit om dwo preter hadhs. Dayir climat, id ratio om 350 ppm CO² habiet naiwo dohlgen bihe udliten (415 ppm CO² in Augusto 2019); tod om 450 ppm bihsiet it aundwoi kathalika, samt un baygh akster proportionalitat os udmikdare 2°C augen ios mutawassit temperature ye id end ios secule. Api, plus 3°C ye id end ios XXIstios secule binisbat id inkapem ios industrial era mayniet, dat id megil inertia ios systeme, plus 5°C ye id end ios niebstios secule, ed to unte cortst-ye 5000 yars. Yinjier sehnkiet muhim-ye Terras habilitabilitat pro nies descendants. 
Est hasardeus credihes ghehdsiemos face tod situationo med quo kalmos ghaw-ye "geo-ingenieurie", un abusive namdehsa ar exist neid technique ye id maschtab ios Terran systeme, pior vast ed complexe kay bihe maystert. Albatta ghehdiemos intervene ep filan parameter : id ciautaungsto technique esiet id enderghombehnden ios CO² ios atmosphere bet solg engerghenden kwehcti gigantesk, tantghi energia, materials ed wakt nos mankient. Dat ia 1900 gigatonnes (Gt) os CO² kowpen in id atmosphere (in 2011), samt 40 idafi Gt pro yar tuntos, tod enderghenden, samt un probable imkan os enderghombehnden om 10 Gt/pro yar bilkull, obkwehct netyeicet.
Dayir biodiversitat, sekwent id index saycto "gwiv planete", nuden ab id UNO, id numer em mammifers, avs, reptils, amphibias ed piskens ep Terra hat mincen do dwidel inter 1970 ed 2010. Id inkapem os climat change kam id artificialisation os araszi hant caducihn ia traditional conservationstrategias. Hois, ia speces migrent ex ia zones qua ibs sonti destinet ed, ciois, hat bihn impossible arke id phenomen iom invasive specen. Hatta ia populations insecten, preter bepollnern, gnohnt un collapse iren effectives. Ad to addeiht-se id ormascen ios genome iom buwt specen. Millennia os nowngmin agriculture hieb vidughen un pondost varietat ex ia. Id industrialisation os agriculture ed ios production iom semens hat deht un fin tei situation, quod esposit id dynamique os evolution. Smad yaschi mehmihes id hassile iom ecosystemic servicen. Smos nuntos begrunden ad redwoie un evolution quod ghehdiet volvihes oku ed irreversible-ye Terra kyun stando naiw experiencen ab rjienrlwey. 
Dayir alter objective os posdaril antslehnken, id reduction iom inegalitats os opnosdaysa, id situation esti tem dramatic. In id druna iom trigim akhir yars, ia inegalitats hant proliferen tienxia, quayque centens om millions em Chinesens ed Hindis besonters hant ghohden salge paupertat. Oino milliard ensanen gwivt in extreme misere, med minter quem 1,25 $ cadadien (eent 46% in 1990 ed 27% in 2005, yani 1,4 milliard leuden), ed 3 milliards leuden behandent tik 2$ cadadien. Ex 1971 do 2010, id numer iom meg orm lands hat doublen, uperleitend ex 25 do 49. In cada mund iklime, ia farks inter richens ed paupers, inter metropolitan ed dusdehn areas, hant crohscen.
 
Type os gigantesk madenn onwogh kay ruydes darv sands in West Canada. Kamdiu valsiet tod opos ?
== Un rhalat ghaben iom techniquen ==
Posdaril antslehnken wehlpt ud techniques qua ia khake dahe. 
Techniques anance khaliban tri trumps. 
Prest-ye, permittent produce existanta wares ed services reducend-ye id ressurcenconsumm (productivitatsgains). Api, ia gains tyict pro ielg unitat ne bihnt retrohven ye tienxia maschtab. Est id paradox aunstohgen ab iom britisch economiste W.S.Jevons unte id XIXt secule : is hieb diken od ia efficience gains dayir ghiulconsumm adduxeer un crosct ios tienxia demande os ghiul (antskand effect). Id demonstration est lawter : ex in-kap ia 1970tias do 2008, hams ghohden consumme 30% minus energia pro BIP point bet, unte id sam wakt, ia tienxia CO² emissions hant crohsct unte 80%. Ia tienxia fluxa om materias leudent do 60 milliards tonnen cadayar ed sollient nake 100 milliards tonnen in 2030. 
Technic progress permitt, dwot-ye, invente nov wares ed services, quo impliet idafi fluxa om energia ed materia. Smartphones, mathalan, sont riche samt semiwauska, schalt ad energiaguraghend servers ed tehrbent bihe ops rechargen. Dalg ud wauste in un reduction iom fluxen om energia ed materia, productivitatsgains ed innovations creiscent ia. Tik un bequader iom fluxen entrend ia economic systemes ghehdient deuysihes id technique-mercato dynamique ed sammel reoriente ids effects. 
Fin-ye, id trito trump iom techniquen est iro remeidensmagh. Permittent ghi restaure land au mar ecosystemes, quo est albatt admirable, bet tod sarcbungos khact bihe tyicen ye tienxia maschtab. 
Dwo conceptions diweident tunkye mutu. Idmen akster posdarilitat ayt od est impossible substitue reproductible capital ei natural capital. Tod obliget ad preserve sem physic kweits os ambient kam ia ecosystemic services, id opnos os biodiversitat au id stabilitat os climat, quo impliet un drastic discrosct niesen fluxen. Id de muzlim posdarilitat suppont od maghmos substitue techniques au artefacts ad natural capital edghi od maghmos destruge tod sekwent nies economic opsa. Nu-dehbhent tunkye nies productive imkans bihe preservet. Posdaril antslehnken, quod sehkwt id dayi uns aunfin crosct ios BIP, cheust muzlim posdarilitat. 
Api ia techniques oiskeipent per se mediations inter el mensc ed id nature : est neid technique aun nature, ni energia ni materia. Est imaginable od el mensc dispareihti ye id brungos om autonomascus robots, bet ne od nature-on dispareiht. In realitat, ne substituemos reproductible capital ei natural capital, sontern nov techniques ibs awims kay ruydes uddeilens ios biosphere qua khiekam tuntro brunges. It est id fall pro kiezghiangasa. Taymos ia traditional baurtechniques med alya techniques, ta os hydraulic fracturationo med horizontal baurmen; bihnt rentable bad ab un certain soyl. Lakin gehnghiangasa sonti tem exhaustible quem ia natural gasa. Fiker substitue techniques ad nature est uno mythos, oino iom facettes ios cred al occidental mensc in id omnipotence elsen techniquen.
== Id harmonia iom tri pillars : uno nayive vision ==
Id de harmonia inter ia social, ecologic ed economic dimensions pau kaurti de id imperialiste kweitu ios economic raison. Ids wi buhsa est uperwehrte ceter dimensions do siena monetar istilahs ed reduce it wiswa cheusa do id saul alternative payghe/ne payghe. To vidmos clar-ye nundiens con id tienxia extension ios cost-brungos analyse ed id inscription os nature do id prisensysteme. Tik un akster economic regulation ghehdt contre economic raison. 
To buit diken, med meg important historic fiscal data tarikhend tsay do id XVIIIt secule, ab Thomas Piketty in eys vasto studye de capital ed inegalitats. Economic logique adduct per se un inegalitar tanek os capital. Eti, quan id makhsoul os capital est alter quem crosct, tunkye mecanic-ye tancti capital pro id brungos uns lyter numer rentieren. Tik id daulat, tant ye id international quem id national maschtab, sont apt ad reduce ta inegalitats ed ad anghe ia amdanis im individus med kreptic fiscal siyassas. Tod meid esti dar importanter kun crosct hat rebiht muzlim, pos id tempos iom Trente Glorieuses. Un subihto discrosct gwehmt samt crisct aunieusias. Contraste-ye, un voluntar, selective discrosct, conjuget con politic fiscal siyassas qua ziele un reduction iom inegalitats om amdanis, meinciet id gvalt ios clasch resultend ex id finwent kweitu iom udwekwnen ressurcen. 
In tod regard, id HANDY model (Human and Nature Dynamics) antplohct ab uno NASA swoin, est baygh interessant : deict od tik un societat kwit hois ab muzlim consumm ed crosct, ed ciois ab un prabh opnosdaysa inter elites ed popule, ghehdti do equilibern ed posdaril relations con sien ambient. 
Bad, dramatic coincidence, id exspand os posdaril antslehnken buit samzaman ios politic adgumt os neoliberalisme ed idsios geographic extension. Posdaril antslehnken, appellend-ye id regulation iom mercats, eet os social-democrat inspiration ed ghohd neid meis quem cedde face ia cutts tos neoliberalisme ed id adulation iom mercatsautomatismen. Posdaril antslehnken mathmounit id intuition os un change de nies relations con nature. Yed id ne hat ghohdt ei bringhes alyum antwehrd quem un exacerbation ios economic raison quod manteint id separation inter nature ed societat.