105606-lets-talk-about-supernova-white-dye-math

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As an avid dye collector in WildStar I'm always on the lookout for new dyes to give some colour to one of my many costumes. I'm that kind of idiot that has already spend about 20 platinum on dyes, dyeing costumes and buying costume pieces from the AH. After obtaining most of the dyes that I've ever wanted there is just one missing from my collection.
 
Freakin’ Supernova White dye. Afaik this dye is extremely rare. I had never seen it on the AH or even seen somebody wearing it in-game. After doing some quick research on the forums and this subreddit I was none the wiser as of where to actually obtain this dye. I've heard rumours that it can be in a boombox but I have a hard time believing this personally. Jabbithole however does seem to have some data so I did the math to get an idea just how rare this dye is. How lucky must one be to get Supernova white dye?
 
The probability, or P, of obtaining Supernova White Dye is constructed as follows
P(Pouch of Pristine Pigments drops) * P(Getting the roll) * P(Unboxing Supernova White Dye)
 
P(Pouch of Pristine Pigments drops)
For this we could calculate the chance of a drop on a single target but since a dungeon does contain multiple base population packs and bosses it would only be fair to calculate the probability of a drop for a complete dungeon run like you would normally do to get bronze, silver or even gold. In most dungeons (SSM in particular) you will find more mobs than you would ever need to kill for all the optionals We could safely disregard the skipped mobs in our calculation. But if we take veteran Stormtalon as our metric things change up a bit. Granted that you could skip  ~75% of the dungeon before. The latest patch introduced a whole lot of invisible walls so currently the only way to go fast is to kill fast. Let's assume we're killing everything instead!
 
The breakdown for the mobs in veteran STL and their drop chances for a pouch of pristine pigments is as follows.
 
Mob                                                   Count             Odds of dropping    Count multiplied by odds
 
Thunderbeak Fleshripper                  16x                  0.29% (82/27817)      = 0.04717
Thundercall Storm-Watcher              8x                    0.23% (46/20231)      = 0.01819
Thundercall Shaman                         7x                    0.21% (30/14497)      = 0.01449
Thundercall Sentinel                          7x                   0.17% (27/15642)      = 0.01208
Thundercall Stormweaver                 6x                    0.16% (24/15219)      = 0.00946
Skyborn Tempest                              4x                    0.18% (14/7931)        = 0.00706
Stormtalon                                         1x                   0.07% (5/7533)           = 0.00066
Blade-Wind the Invoker                     1x                   0.01% (1/14601)         = 0.00007
Aethros                                              1x                   0.01% (1/7835)           = 0.00012
Overseer Drift-Catcher                     0.5x                 0.11% (5/4544)           = 0.00055
Arcanist Breeze-Binder                     0.5x                0.04%  (4/4590)          = 0.00043
 
For this one we can add the odds rather than multiplying them. Notice the 0.5x multiplier on the optionals. You can only get either. Adding their chances divided by half will give an average.
P(Pouch of Pristine Pigments drops) = 0.110292448679…
 
P(Getting the Roll)
This one is easy to calculate. You simply divide your odds by 5 (or multiply by 0.2). If your dungeon group doesn't have any dye fanatics they will pass on this item which greatly increases your odds.
P(getting the roll) = 0.2
 
P(Unboxing Supernova White Dye)
According to Jabbithole the Pouch of Pristine pigments has a 0.81% (1/123) chance of giving you the Supernova White Dye.
P(Unboxing Supernova White Dye) = 0.008130... or 1/123
 
Final calculation
P(Obtaining Supernova White Dye from STL) = 0.11029 * 0.2 * 0.008130 = 0.0001793  Full calculation
That’s a chance of 0.018% or 1 in 5576
 
With these odds if you ran veteran STL about 2000 times your odds would still only 35%. Happy dye hunting!
 
Tl;dr: The odds of getting Supernova White Dye from Stormtalon's Lair on veteran mode are 1 in 5576. If you completed veteran STL about 2000 times your odds would still only be 1 in 3
PS: I used Jabbithole for my calculations. If Jabbithole is inaccurate, so will my calculations be. If I made any mistake in my calculation I would like to hear it. If you do own Supernova White Dye please do use the pleasure of showing us your costume! A similar formule could be applied for KV, SC, SSM, GA and DS. 
 
– Nnyerix
 	
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You could run STL Vet 5000 times
 
 
OR
 
 
GET TO LOVE BROWN.
 
 
Your choice.	
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You could run STL Vet 5000 times
OR
GET TO LOVE BROWN.
Your choice.
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STL here I come!
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I've been looking for a "white enough" dye aka a light grey for my healing outfit, because I've pretty much given up on getting a Supernova - even more so now after looking at these numbers.
 
I don't understand why they feel it should be a hurdle, chore, or epic task to colour your clothes in pure tones.	
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I've been looking for a "white enough" dye aka a light grey for my healing outfit, because I've pretty much given up on getting a Supernova - even more so now after looking at these numbers.
 
I don't understand why they feel it should be a hurdle, chore, or epic task to colour your clothes in pure tones.
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I've been looking for a "white enough" dye aka a light grey for my healing outfit, because I've pretty much given up on getting a Supernova - even more so now after looking at these numbers.
 
I don't understand why they feel it should be a hurdle, chore, or epic task to colour your clothes in pure tones.
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I've already got every color of *cupcake* brown under the sun. Every shade from mustard diarrhea to asparagus olive brown.
 
Enough with the darn browns...	
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I've been looking for a "white enough" dye aka a light grey for my healing outfit, because I've pretty much given up on getting a Supernova - even more so now after looking at these numbers.
 
I don't understand why they feel it should be a hurdle, chore, or epic task to colour your clothes in pure tones.
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Every shade from mustard diarrhea to asparagus olive brown.
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You could run STL Vet 5000 times
 
 
OR
 
 
GET TO LOVE BROWN.
 
 
Your choice.
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Military shooters taught me that brown is #hardcore. Sorry.
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Military shooters also taught me that voice comms lead to hilarious outbursts from teenage boys with squeaky voices. Sorry.
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I have like almost 200 dyes in GW2....at least 10 of them are variations of white and infact I have a celestial one that had cost me next to nothing to buy. And on top of that it costs nothing to dye my gear....plus there is usually 4 dye channels as well...
 
Mean while, I have almost 30 variations of brown in WS (under 1/2 my dyes) and all the good colors cost plat to use. Not gold, PLAT!	
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I have like almost 200 dyes in GW2....at least 10 of them are variations of white and infact I have a celestial one that had cost me next to nothing to buy. And on top of that it costs nothing to dye my gear....plus there is usually 4 dye channels as well...
 
Mean while, I have almost 30 variations of brown in WS (under 1/2 my dyes) and all the good colors cost plat to use. Not gold, PLAT!
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Dyejob.
 
Seems expensive for what you get.  We should talk.
 
 
 
 
 
...about the cost of applying dyes.  *sigh*	
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			At least I have Exile Blue and Bladeleaf. Now if only I could afford to use them.	
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I preferred Rift's approach to dye rarity... For example, in addition to the recipe needing to be purchased with harder to come buy crafting vouchers, Exceptionally White Dye required some high end game materials, including some difficult to find (but not impossible) flowers and a vendor mat that costs 1500 Empyreal Slayers Marks, which were an end game currency you could get from daily expert dungeons. 1500's a sizeable chunk of Empyreal Slayers Marks, especially when the marks are also used for upgrading gear, so it made choosing to craft Exceptionally White Dye a big decision.
 
Really wish Technologist could craft dyes...	
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I preferred Rift's approach to dye rarity... For example, in additiona to needing to be purchased with harder to come buy crafting vouchers, Exceptionally White Dye required some high end game materials, including some difficult to find (but not impossible) flowers and a vendor mat that costs 1500 Empyreal Slayers Marks, which were an end game currency you could get from daily expert dungeons. 1500's a sizeable chunk of Empyreal Slayers Marks, especially when the marks are also used for upgrading gear, so it made choosing to craft Exceptionally White Dye a big decision.
 
Really wish Technologist could craft dyes...
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Well that's not depressing at all...
 
I really dislike that developers do this just because black/white are popular dye colors, so they make them retardedly difficult to get. I know it's the whole 'carrot on the end of a stick' thing at play, but it just drives me up the wall.
 
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I've been looking for a "white enough" dye aka a light grey for my healing outfit, because I've pretty much given up on getting a Supernova - even more so now after looking at these numbers.
 
I don't understand why they feel it should be a hurdle, chore, or epic task to colour your clothes in pure tones.
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			welcome to WS where brown is the main color and they hide all the good ones behind RNG and or absurb pay walls. Better buy sum credd, that is the answer to all things WS.	
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"We're all about character customization!" - Wildstar Devs
 
/laugh.	
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"We're all about character customization!" - Wildstar Devs/laugh.
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"Months of content"
 
Means you have to work for months to be able to start enjoying the content.
 
Oh gods.. I'm seeing a Genesis Key attunement process to unlock White.  Earn your dye, cupcake.	
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			A guildie of mine has Supernova, but I have no idea where he got it. His name is Fatty@Caretaker if you want to ask him.	
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			Green and brown are my favourite colours, devs. Got them all for a few gold. Checkmate.	
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A guildie of mine has Supernova, but I have no idea where he got it. His name is Fatty@Caretaker if you want to ask him.
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one in 5k is actually not bad drop rate for ultra rare item :)
 
But why are dyes so rare T.T	
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Good luck ever using it, or at least on most of your stuff
 
Obviously I have everything selected but still, 57 plat? >_>
 
As far as obtaining it, I have had it for over a month and I sadly don't remember, at the time I didn't realize it was this rare. My best guess would be from a boom box.
 	
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Good luck ever using it, or at least on most of your stuff
 
Obviously I have everything selected but still, 57 plat? >_>
 
As far as obtaining it, I have had it for over a month and I sadly don't remember, at the time I didn't realize it was this rare. My best guess would be from a boom box.
 
 
 
 
 
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			wow...only 57 plat and change, man better buy some credd quick!	
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			This game's dye system just makes me cringe. *sigh*	
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I know it's the whole 'carrot on the end of a stick' thing at play, but it just drives me up the wall.
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Carbine doesn't know how to do 'carrot on the end of a stick'.
 
Carbine puts the carrot on the moon, calls you cupcake, and then laughs at you.
 
#hardcore?
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57 plat?  8-10 months of CREDD?  To.. dye your outfit?   A visual change?
 
Dyejob is right.	
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Carbine doesn't know how to do 'carrot on the end of a stick'.
 
Carbine puts the carrot on the moon, calls you cupcake, and then laughs at you.
 
#hardcore?
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What the actual *cupcake*? I thought Guild Wars 2 dyes were a little annoying at first, but it eased up. I came here thinking I'd get a similar, if not better, system. But hell no. Apparently a solid white dye is little more than a dream, with a followup dream that involves being able to afford to ever actually use it on anything. Why the hell am I paying to use my own dyes again anyway? If you're gonna charge me insane prices to dye my gear, then make it easier to unlock them. Having to find or buy ultra rare colors, only to then be charged again with astronomical prices to even use them is absolutely ridiculous. 57 plat? I don't even want the white dye anymore, even if it were half that price to use.
 
Someone I know keeps telling me to stay off these forums, and he's right, because I question what it is I've paid for and am still paying for with each passing thread. 
 
 
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Carbine doesn't know how to do 'carrot on the end of a stick'.Carbine puts the carrot on the moon, calls you cupcake, and then laughs at you.#hardcore?
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Carbine doesn't know how to do 'carrot on the end of a stick'.
 
Carbine puts the carrot on the moon, calls you cupcake, and then laughs at you.
 
#hardcore?
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			I got supernova white from the pristine dye bag.  Can confirm at least it comes from it.  Only seen 5 purple dye bags in 100s of runs though.	
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not quite sure why this dye is so rare (there are a few others that are rare too).
 
i dont really think that dye drop-rates being so ridiculously rare lends credence to WS being HARDCORE. stuff like this is plainly just obnoxious. bad enough that so many of the stylish dyes are insanely expensive to use.	
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Military shooters taught me that teamkilling is the best way to lead to said comedy, especially driving a fully loaded vehicle of teammates over a cliff. 
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It has only been a couple of months so far, and I'd imagine, at least... I hope that the system will undergo some major tweaking at some point down the road. I refuse to pay platinum to dye anything. That's just stupid. I'm sorry (not really) but it really is. 
 
I miss the CoH creator and tailor fees. It might cost you nothing,  to a few influence to make your outfit one of a good 100 shades that you didn't have to earn or find or buy, that were just there for any and all to use at their whim. 	
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Yeah, in case it helps, if these numbers are in any way correct (and I've no reason to think they are not) and it's BOP (so you can't even send them into the CX if you don't want it), that number sucks.
 
I mean, they're dyes.  I understand if some are reasonably hard to get because they're cool, but they've got no game effect.  Dyes shouldn't be harder to get than added ability points.	
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It has only been a couple of months so far, and I'd imagine, at least... I hope that the system will undergo some major tweaking at some point down the road. I refuse to pay platinum to dye anything. That's just stupid. I'm sorry (not really) but it really is. 
 
I miss the CoH creator and tailor fees. It might cost you nothing,  to a few influence to make your outfit one of a good 100 shades that you didn't have to earn or find or buy, that were just there for any and all to use at their whim. 
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I personally think it would be better to instead of having an NPC dye your clothes, another player can do so... I haven't played much Wildstar yet, so I don't know what professions there are, but it would be cool if a sort of tailor profession could do it for you. Would give an interesting touch to the community. Maybe even make it so the person with the tailoring, is also the one with the dyes. You go to them to get your stuff died, they just fee you. It wouldn't necessarily be free for them to do either, but it will make them money, and make others happy... One tailor could be well known because HE/SHE is one of the only ones on the server with Super Nova White. Or one charges cheaply, etc... Get where I am going with this?
 
I am going to expand more on my idea on Reddit... So.. look out for it. it could be really bad, or really interesting ;)	
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-Due to player response we have investigated the current Dye costs, and agree changes need to be made. From now on all dyes will cost +300% more.
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The cost to dye armor is just absolutely way too high. There is zero justification to charging people that absurd amount to change the look of their character. For a company who sold this game on customization, they sure make it the hardest part of the game to do. No one should have to waste so much gold to dye their armor. If we own the dye, we have to pay to use it? I hope Carbine at some point realizes the mistakes they have made and will work on fixing them. I'm sure they are already having a drop in subscriptions within the first two months, they'll have to start taking drastic measures to retain the ones they do have.
 
I just wasted tons of mats creating an item, only to find out that it didn't create it and at the same time took all of my mats. That was a literal 7 days of getting that currency from the crafting vendor every day. I submitted a ticket over 20 hours ago, and I am supposed to receive a response within 24 hours. Something tells me that isn't going to happen. 
 
It's a combination of so many things, not just the price of dyes, that is driving people away from this game. I've thoroughly enjoyed it so far, but all of these problems are taking a toll. I hope to see a proper response from Carbine on the state of the game and the direction it is going and not same half witted forum response from a Mod (no offense).	
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not same half witted forum response from a Mod (no offense).
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We would also like to apologize for the current droprates. From now on, desirable colours will drop once a year. For a single player. And are going to be BoP.
 
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We would also like to apologize for the current droprates. From now on, desirable colours will drop once a year. For a single player. And are going to be BoP.
 
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- Tailor Livy has been added to Thayd.
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			- Added a randomized element to the dye application process.  After successfully paying to apply your chosen dye colouration, Protostar will randomly apply different colours instead.  This will avoid the "Cookie Cutter" effect of everyone looking the same.  In the future we will apply this same system to the AMP configuration screen.	
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All craft NPCS have been replaced with clones of Tailor Livy.
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			I feel I've missed an inside joke.  What's this Livy person?	
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I feel I've missed an inside joke.  What's this Livy person?
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A friendly, cool dude. Haters gonna hate.
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In Thayd near the tailors there's someone that laughs.. or something.. every few seconds.  "HEYYYY" would be more annoying, but then, Dominion.
 
I think Carbine just doesn't want there to be tailors, which explains many things.  These annoying NPCs.. the drop rate of cloth.. the research.. the items we make..	
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			One day, I shall turn game sound on just for Livy. I hope it's worth the wait.	
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In Thayd near the tailors there's someone that laughs.. or something.. every few seconds.  "HEYYYY" would be more annoying, but then, Dominion.
 
I think Carbine just doesn't want there to be tailors, which explains many things.  These annoying NPCs.. the drop rate of cloth.. the research.. the items we make..
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A friendly, cool dude. Haters gonna hate.
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MOTHER*cupcake*ER!  FABLE!
 
That's what that reminds me of, and it took me looking at the link to remember!  This happened all the damn time in Fable!
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man it is cheap to use this dye:
 	
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man it is cheap to use this dye:
 
 
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lol wtf. Blows my mind how out of touch the person is that decides what to price things at in game. It's probably better we don't know who it is though or there'd be a lot of angry hate threads directed at him/her.
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That dev probably got a promotion.
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That dev probably got a promotion.
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lol wtf. Blows my mind how out of touch the person is that decides what to price things at in game. It's probably better we don't know who it is though or there'd be a lot of angry hate threads directed at him/her.
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Managed to get this bad boy today in an epic bag of dyes in my Veteran: Kel'Voreth run I was in.  ^_____________________^
 
 
Sorry if this is necro.
 
EDIT: In case you're curious, if I wanted to dye my entire set of level 50 gear Supernova White, it costs me 27 plat, and that's with only 12/18 pieces dyeable.	
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man it is cheap to use this dye:
 
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Over a year worth of gametime to bleach your clothes.
 
Seems legit HARDCORE	
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Semi necro to point out 82plat for a dye job is not hardcore enough.
 
 
Make it 100p or bust please.	
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LETS ALL NECRO!!!!!
 
Just to let you know, I beat your math with a stick
 
I've only seen one pouch drop and I've done lots of vet dung runs
 
I was the one to win said pouch
 
from said pouch was the lovely dye
 
sadface when I saw it was soulbound 
 
happyface cause I used it
 
sadface that its going to cost shit tons to dye anything non-costume	
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Pristine Pigment pouch for sale from Renown PREZE.
 
I think anyones best hope at getting this, is that they add a Christmas white for the holiday season, as they have a Halloween black and orange (At least as shown on the Dye Preview add on)	
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Carbine doesn't know how to do 'carrot on the end of a stick'.
 
Carbine puts the carrot on the moon, calls you cupcake, and then laughs at you.
 
#hardcore?
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Your health is low! Do you have any potions, or food?
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Fus-Roh-D...ah need some exlax?
 
That's a lot of cheese.	
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Fus-Roh-D...ah need some exlax?
 
That's a lot of cheese.
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man it is cheap to use this dye:
 
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I have this dye... Before getting it I would have traded a Project Legacy weapon (which I obviously don't have) to get it, but that's how badly I wanted it. I'm the same kinda person as the OP, spent like 150p so far on buying dyes and dying costumes. Needless to say, when I got supernova I kinda shit my pants. I'm at the spaceport AH if you'd like to see. :P
 
-Dredd
 
Edit: It costs 145p to dye my 1800 set white. Kinda insane.	
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You could run STL Vet 5000 times
 
 
OR
 
 
GET TO LOVE BROWN.
 
 
Your choice.
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			nvrmnd	
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