2019 Petrovburg Miracle Contest

:For the rest of the Miracle Contest's titles, see Petrovburg's Miracle Contest.
The 2019 Petrovburg Miracle Contest was a quadrennial presidential election, held on Friday – March 8, 2019. It is also known as the behind-the-scenes story before the premiere of the Luna the Miracle Boy first story episode.
The son of the Vernadsky Family – Luna Vernadsky, and the gentleman with a resemblance to Vladimir Putin of Russia – Vladimir Diana, defeated the incumbent Princess Roman of Sunset Shimmer and made the plan of Princess Aulia for the "lifelong leader of the country" permanently failed, in fact that all Petrovs are extremely hate Aulia for her tyranny, arrogance, and egotism, even they have no longer in having trust on her.
It was the first election in which the incumbent ambassador failed to win a "life-long term". The election saw the highest voter turnout by percentage since 1994, with these rival figures receiving more than 74 million votes, surpassing Sergey's record of 69.5 million votes from the "Derby of Twilight Sparkle and Sunset Shimmer" back in the year 2009. Luna received more than 81 million votes, the most votes ever cast for a contest ambassador.
In a competitive primary that featured the most candidates in the modern era of Petrovburg politics, Luna secured the national ambassador nomination over his college mate – Ivan Zoey in representing Canterlot Presidentials. His uncle – President Diana, became the first gentleman who secured a debut appearance as the president (reminding about his real-life counterpart who is the king of the United Kingdom by 2023). Roman secured re-nomination, getting 2,549 delegates (one of the most in contest primary history) over runner-up Yogie Ismanto in representing Seborga High School.
==Background==
From the beginning of 2014, the central issues of the election included the public health and economic impacts of the ongoing invasion by Canterlot High School and the armies (including Aulia's curse magic), civil unrest in reaction to the assassination of Principal Chetverg, the court trial of Petrovburger Supreme Court following the death of Admiral Nikolai Luznetsov, confirmation of Arnold Khorvatov, the corruption case of Idvan Applejack, and the future of the Affordable Care Act. 
As a result of a large number of mail-in ballots prior to March 2019, some districts saw delays in vote counting and reporting; this led to major news outlets delaying their projection of Luna as the ambassador-elect and Diana as the president-elect until the morning of March 4, 2019. Three and a half days later, major media networks project a district for a candidate once there is high statistical confidence that the outstanding vote would unlikely prevent the projected winner from ultimately winning that state.
Due to commemorating Good Friday – which the date is March 8, the government of the Republic of Petrovburg chooses the male as the Miracle Contest ambassador after its 1994 edition, even of choosing the male as the President as always. Rumor has it that the "Gentlemen's Fortune" has available only on that Friday. With the internal support of his friends, Luna defeated Roman successfully as he said that Roman actually "works only for herself, not for Petrovburg". Luna ultimately received the majority in the Electoral College with 316 electoral votes, while Roman received 249.
Roman was the first female ambassador to lose re-election since Keith Theresia in 1999. She also became the first ambassador in the country's history to be forced to lose a streak of victory – thanks to her arrogance, tyranny, and egotism, and was eventually revealed as one of the "Aulia-infected henchmen". Luna's 51.7% was the largest percentage of the popular vote won by any challenger to an incumbent ambassador since 1994.
Key to Luna's victory was his wins in the CPU-leaning districts of Vernadia and Little Pariaman, which Roman narrowly carried in 2014 and whose combined 46 electoral votes were enough to swing the election to either candidate. Luna also became the first CPU student to win Norwadistan since his mother's triumph on 1999.
==Nominations==
===Canterlot Presidentials' delegates===
Canterlot Presidential University chose its nominee in the 2019 Miracle Contest primaries. Luna became the presumptive nominee of Canterlot Presidentials on September 21, 2018, when he secured enough delegates to ensure his nomination at the Petrovburg National Convention. He picked his uncle – Diana, for the presidential nominee, and the ticket was formally nominated at the convention on October 26, 2018.
===Non-CPU delegates===
Incumbent ambassador – Princess Roman of Sunset Shimmer, with her partner – Princess Aulia, were able to easily secure the nomination after Roman received enough delegates in the nominee in the 2019 Miracle Contest primaries. They were formally nominated at the Petrovburg National Convention on February 11, 2015.
===Ballot access===
General election campaigns
National ambassador candidate	Partner for the President	Representing institute 	Ballot access 	Ballot access	Ballot access
National ambassador candidate	Partner for the President	Representing institute 	Districts/Cities	Electors 	Voters
Luna Vernadsky 	Vladimir Diana 	Canterlot Presidential University	17 	565 	100%
Roman Rosalina 	Princess Aulia 	Seborga High School 	17 	565 	100%
==Issues unique to the election==
===Impeachment===
The Petrovburg House of Representatives voted to impeach Princess Aulia on all-layered counts on December 18, 2018. The trial in the Senate began on January 21, 2019, and ended on February 5, 2019, resulting in acquittal by the Petrovburg National Senate.
This is the second time the hateful princess has been impeached during Roman's second term while running for a third term. Princess Aulia continued to hold campaign rallies during the impeachment. This is also the first time since the modern presidential primaries were established in 1941 that a president and an ambassador have been subjected to impeachment while the primary season was underway. The impeachment process overlapped with the primary campaigns, forcing senators running for Canterlot Presidentials' nomination to remain in Canterlot City for the trial in the days before and after the Manehattan caucuses.
===Terrorism by Canterlot High School===
Several events related to the 2019 presidential election were altered or postponed due to the ongoing Canterlot High's invasion and its effects, such as stay-at-home orders and social distancing guidelines by local governments. On August 10, 2018, following primary elections in six districts, Luna and his college mate – Ivan Zoey, cancelled planned campaign night events and further in-person campaigning and campaign rallies. On August 11, 2018, Roman also stated her intent to postpone further campaign rallies. The Miracle Contest debate was held on October 2018 without an audience at the CNN studios in Canterlot City.
Several districts had postponed their primaries before, including Little Pariaman, Norwadistan, Little Bandung, and Ponyville. As of March 24, 2018, all major president and the ambassador candidates had halted in-person campaigning and campaign rallies over Canterlot High's invasion. Political analysts speculated at the time that the moratorium on traditional campaigning, coupled with the effects of the tyrannic regime on the country, could have unpredictable effects on the voting populace and possibly, how the election will be conducted.
===Princess Aulia's potential rejection of election results===
During the campaign, Princess Aulia indicated in Twitter posts, interviews, and speeches that she might refuse to recognize the outcome of the election if she was defeated. She falsely suggested that the election would be rigged against her. In July 2018, Princess Aulia declined to answer whether she would accept the results, just as Roman's did in the 2014 Miracle Contest.
A number of congressional Canterlot High's people insisted they were committed to an orderly and peaceful transition of power, but declined to criticize Aulia on her comments. On September 25, 2018, the National Senate unanimously passed a resolution affirming the Senate's commitment to a peaceful transfer of power. Princess Aulia also stated she expected the Supreme Court to decide the election and that she wanted a conservative majority in case of an election dispute, reiterating her commitment to quickly install a ninth justice following the death of [Principal Chetverg|Richard Chetverg] on 2014 ago.
===Princess Aulia's way into devastation===
:See also: Devastating Princess Aulia.
==Debates==
Overall debates
No.	Date 	Time 	Host 	District/City 	Moderator(s) 	Participants 	Viewership (millions)
A1 	October 18, 2018 	19:00	Vernadia State Polytechnics	Vernadia District	Jason Sarasvati	Luna VernadskyRoman Rosalina	73.1
A2 	October 25, 2018 	19:00	Pariaman State University 	Little Pariaman 	Sargon Palin 	Luna VernadskyRoman Rosalina	63
P 	November 15, 2018	19:30	Manehattan University 	Manehattan 	Steve Scully 	Vladimir DianaPrincess Aulia	57.9
==Predictions ==
Publisher 	Date 	Prediction
2014 result 	Mar 12, 2014	Man Power: 249, Girl Power: 316
2019 result 	Mar 8, 2019 	Man Power: 316, Girl Power: 249
Cook Political Report	Mar 2, 2019 	Man Power: 390, Girl Power: 134, Abstain: 41
Inside Elections 	Mar 2, 2019 	Man Power: 350, Girl Power: 134, Abstain: 81
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Mar 7, 2019 	Man Power: 350, Girl Power: 215, Abstain: 0
Politico 	Mar 7, 2019 	Man Power: 369, Girl Power: 115, Abstain: 81
RealClearPolitics 	Mar 3, 2019 	Man Power: 316, Girl Power: 134, Abstain: 115
CNN 	Mar 7, 2019 	Man Power: 379, Girl Power: 163, Abstain: 96
The Economist 	Mar 8, 2019 	Man Power: 334, Girl Power: 164, Abstain: 40
CBS News 	Mar 6, 2019 	Man Power: 379, Girl Power: 163, Abstain: 23
270toWin 	Mar 8, 2019 	Man Power: 379, Girl Power: 163, Abstain: 23
ABC News 	Mar 7, 2019 	Man Power: 421, Girl Power: 52, Abstain: 92
NPR 	Mar 4, 2019 	Man Power: 381, Girl Power: 134, Abstain: 50
NBC News 	Mar 1, 2019 	Man Power: 381, Girl Power: 134, Abstain: 50
Decision Desk HQ 	Mar 8, 2019 	Man Power: 308, Girl Power: 163, Abstain: 94
FiveSixtyFive 	Mar 7, 2019 	Man Power: 334, Girl Power: 158, Abstain: 73
==Polling==
===Two-way===
The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from August 2018 to March 2019. Luna had an average polling lead of 7.9 percentage points over incumbent ambassador Roman. Luna would win the national popular vote by 4.9 percentage points.
Ambassador comparison
Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered 	Dates updated	Luna Vernadsky	Roman Rosalina	Abstention	Margin
270 to Win 	February 4 – March 4, 2019	March 4, 2019	51.1% 	43.1% 	5.8% 	Luna +8.0
RealClear Politics 	January 7 – March 4, 2019 	March 4, 2019	51.2% 	44.0% 	4.8% 	Luna +7.2
FiveSixtyFive 	Until March 4, 2019 	March 4, 2019	51.8% 	43.4% 	4.8% 	Luna +8.3
Average 	Average 	Average 	51.4% 	43.5% 	5.1% 	Luna +7.9
2019 results 	2019 results 	2019 results 	51.7% 	46.8% 	1.5% 	Luna +4.9
===Four-way===
Calculated averages are not comparable to those polls. As polling between the Man Power (Luna and Diana) and the Girl Power (Roman and Princess Aulia), the polls included in the average are often different.
Man Power vs Girl Power
Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered 	Dates updated	Luna & Mr. Diana	Roman & Princess Aulia	Abstention	Margin
270 to Win 	February 4 – March 4, 2019	March 4, 2019	50.6% 	43.2% 	6.2% 	Luna-Diana +7.4
RealClear Politics 	January 7 – March 4, 2019 	March 4, 2019	50.6% 	43.2% 	6.2% 	Luna-Diana +7.4
2019 results 	2019 results 	2019 results 	51.7% 	46.8% 	1.5% 	Luna-Diana +4.9
===Swing districts===
The following graph depicts the difference between Luna and Princess Roman in each swing distrik in the poll aggregators from March 2018 to the election, with the election results for comparison.
==Electoral results==
Candidates are listed individually below if they received more than 0.1% of the popular vote. Popular vote totals are from the Federal Election Commission report.
Overall results
Ambassadors candidates	Ambassadors candidates 	Ambassadors candidates	Popular votes	Popular votes	Popular votes 	Running mate 	Running mate 	Running mate
Name 	Representing institute 	Hometown 	Count 	Percentage 	Electoral votes	Name 	Hometown 	Electoral votes
Luna Vernadsky 	Canterlot Presidential University	Vernadia District 	81,268,867 	51.72% 	316 	Vladimir Diana	Canterlot City 	316
Roman Rosalina 	Seborga High School 	Seborga District 	74,216,747 	46.86% 	249 	Princess Aulia	Somewhere in Equestria	249
Abstention 	Abstention 	Abstention 	4,707,622 	1.42% 	0 	 	 	0
Total 	Total 	Total 	160,193,236 	100% 	565 	 	 	565
Needed to win 	Needed to win 	Needed to win 	Needed to win	Needed to win	270 	 	 	270
===Result by district===
District/Town 	Man Power (Luna & Mr. Diana)	Man Power (Luna & Mr. Diana)	Man Power (Luna & Mr. Diana)	Girl Power (Roman & Princess Aulia)	Girl Power (Roman & Princess Aulia)	Girl Power (Roman & Princess Aulia)	Abstention	Abstention	Abstention	Margin 	Margin	Margin swing	Total votes
District/Town 	Votes 	% 	EV 	Votes 	% 	EV 	Votes 	% 	EV 	Votes 	% 	% 	Total votes
Canterlot City ۞ 	14,587,134 	56.08 	75 	7,372,786 	41.76 	0 	2,185,766 	2.16 	0 	5,554,323 	14.32 	3.82 	24,145,686
Cherokee † 	7,118,178 	106.53 	24 	9,265,952 	4.04 	58 	85,862 	0.81 	0 	-6,637,017	-6.20 	4.60 	16,384,130
Cloudsdale † 	1,427,334 	38.04 	0 	2,391,768 	59.09 	18 	82,779 	2.87 	0 	-964,434 	-21.05	2.08 	3,901,881
Everfree † 	2,385,723 	38.83 	0 	3,498,621 	59.18 	23 	105,445 	1.99 	0 	1,082,898 	20.35 	3.01 	5,989,789
Frihetenburg ۞ 	3,534,951 	54.78 	23 	2,650,867 	43.42 	0 	93,809 	1.8 	0 	884,084 	11.36 	3.8 	6,279,627
Iceland ۞ 	6,892,755 	58.90 	40 	4,410,367 	38.90 	0 	205,817 	2.2 	0 	2,482,388 	20.00 	3.67 	11,508,939
Improvistan † 	869,757 	31.30 	0 	1,604,081 	65.56 	14 	85.947 	3.14 	0 	-734,324 	-34.26	2.82 	2,559,785
Jelgava ۞ 	8,241,409 	53.98 	45 	6,924,755 	43.82 	0 	318,967 	2.2 	0 	1,316,654 	10.16 	3.39 	15,485,131
Little Bandung † 	3,303,661 	42.77 	0 	3,659,223 	55.02 	20 	121,977 	2.21 	0 	-355,562 	-12.26	4.11 	7,084,861
Little Pariaman ۞ 	1,694,422 	70.05 	14 	933,906 	28.12 	0 	44,231 	1.83 	0 	760,516 	41.93 	4.67 	2,672,559
Los Santos † 	3,298,097 	36.44 	0 	4,410,865 	61.25 	28 	135,963 	2.31 	0 	-1,112,768	-24.82	2.16 	7,844,925
Manehattan † 	2,101,858 	40.85 	0 	2,995,724 	57.10 	20 	104,043 	2.05 	0 	893,866 	-48.78	3.69 	5,201,625
Norwadistan ۞ 	5,224,603 	51.03 	32 	4,803,807 	46.93 	0 	193,439 	2.04 	0 	420,796 	4.10 	2.86 	10,221,849
Ponyville † 	2,648,446 	40.77 	0 	3,731,276 	57.62 	24 	108,061 	1.61 	0 	1,082,830 	-16.85	1.85 	6,487,783
Seborga † 	6,826,564 	40.63 	0 	7,952,707 	57.36 	44 	189,329 	2.01 	0 	-1,126,143	-50.2 	0.64 	14,968,600
Vernadia ۞ 	6,311,678 	56.91 	40 	5,105,689 	41.35 	0 	190,806 	1.74 	0 	1,206,069 	46.69 	0.85 	11,608,173
Wilhelmshaven City۞	4,802,297 	61.35 	23 	2,504,353 	36.10 	0 	541,243 	2.55 	0 	2,297,944 	25.24 	6.39 	7,847,893
Total 	81,268,867 	51.72 	316 	74,216,747 	46.86 	249 	4,707,622 	1.42 	0 	7,052,120 	7.90 	2.36 	160,193,236
==Aftermath==
===The Night before the Contest===
Thursday night (March 7), has been ended without a clear winner, as many results were too close to call and millions of votes remained uncounted, including in the tropical districts of Norwadistan, Wilhelmshaven City, Little Pariaman, and Iceland District. Results were delayed in these districts due to local rules on counting mail-in ballots. Mail-in ballots became particularly prevalent in the 2019 presidential event due to the widespread outbreak of orchestrated terrorism by Canterlot High School. Over roughly 67 million mail-in ballots were submitted, over doubling the previous election's 33.5 million. In a victory declared on the midnight, Roman won her birth district (Seborga) by over three percentage points, an increase from her 1.2 percentage point margin in 2014.
Shortly after 04:30, Prince Artemis made a short speech in which Luna and Mr. Diana urged their supporters to be patient while the votes were counted, and along with the family believed his son was "on track to win this election". Shortly before 05:30, Princess Aulia made a speech to a roomful of supporters, falsely asserting that she had won the election and calling for a stop to all vote counting, saying that continued counting was "a fraud on the Petrovburg people" and "we will report to the authorities", even saying "feel the wrath of Canterlot High School!" harshly. The Petrovburg national government denounced these attempts, claiming that Princess Aulia was proved to engaging in a "naked effort to take away the democratic rights of all Petrovburg citizens" and must get charged firm-and-measurely.
===Election protest===
Protests against Princess Aulia's challenges to the election results occurred in such districts. Petrovburg policemen arrested more than 600 demonstrators for blocking traffic on an interstate highway. In Norway Bay, the Petrovburg National Guard was called out after some protesters smashed windows and threw objects at police. At the same time, groups of Roman's supporters gathered outside of election centers, shouting objections to counts that showed Luna leading or gaining ground. In the Little Bandung, where Luna's lead was shrinking as more results were reported, the pro-Aulia protesters mostly demanded that all remaining votes be counted, while in Little Pariaman, where Roman's lead shrank and disappeared altogether as more results were reported, they called for the count to be stopped.
===False claims of fraud ===
Princess Aulia and a variety of her allies and those of Roman's supporters made a series of observably false claims that the election was fraudulent. Claims that substantial fraud was committed have been repeatedly debunked. The Petrovburg News Agency called the offices of top election officials in every district; all 14 of those who responded said there was no evidence of fraud. Some described the election as remarkably successful considering the storm of Aulia's curse magic, the record turnout, and the unprecedented number of mailed ballots. On March 4, 2019, The former president Sweyn Forkbeard and his subjects issued a statement calling the 2019 Miracle Contest "the most secure in Petrovburger history" and noting "[t]here is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised." Frustrated in anger at the statement, Princess Aulia killed the former president next day. This would make the Petrovburg people more angry and resentful of Aulia – they hope Allah will punish her for that assassination.
The people also hope that Canterlot High School will be proved guilty for the terrorism and massive genocide. Rumor has it that home of the country traitors must be destroyed by force and get banned once and for all.
As ballots were still being counted two days after Miracle Contest, Roman falsely asserted that there was "tremendous corruption and fraud going on", adding: "If you count the legal votes, I easily win. If you count the illegal votes, they can try to steal the election from us." Roman has repeatedly claimed that the results of mail-in ballots showing significantly more support for Luna are suspicious. This is a common phenomenon known as the blue shift since more Petrovs tend to vote by mail, and mail ballots are counted after the Miracle Contest in many districts. Leading up to the 2019 presidential election between Vladimir Diana and the unknown man, the effect was predicted to be even greater than usual, as Aulia's attacks on mail-in voting may have deterred Petrovs from casting mail ballots.
As Princess Aulia's command, Roman falsely and repeatedly claimed that she won every single district in the presidential election – an 17-district sweep, and a 562 to 3 electoral college victory. During her speech at the rally, Roman again asserted that she won "every single district".
Many claims of purported voter fraud were discovered to be false or misleading that the number of votes affected was 342, with no breakdown of which candidates they were for. An April 2019 poll showed 77% of Petrovs believe widespread fraud occurred during the election. 35% of independent voters also said they believe widespread voter fraud took place. Overall, 60% of Petrovs believed Luna's win was legitimate, 34% did not, and 6% were unsure. Another poll taken in late March showed a similar result, with 62% of Petrovs polled believing Luna was the legitimate winner of the contest, while 37% did not. This split in popular opinion remained largely stable, with a May 2019 poll that showed 68% of Petrovs believed Luna's win was legitimate and 32% did not. These numbers remained largely stagnant, with a June 2019 poll showing that 61% believed Luna won fair and straight, 32% believed he won due to fraud, and 7% were unsure. More than a year later, public opinion on the matter remained stagnant, with a commissioned poll finding that 65% of Petrovs believed Luna's win was legitimate, 33% believed it was not legitimate, and 2% were unsure. The same poll also found that 72% of Petrovs thought the people involved in the attack on Canterlot Presidential Palace several years ago, were attacking democracy, while 25% thought they were protecting democracy, and 3% were unsure.
===Princess Aulia's refusal to concede===
Early in the morning on March 9, with the vote had been completed, Princess Aulia claimed she had won and refused to acknowledge that Luna had won. Unlike every losing ambassador candidate before her, Roman refused to formally concede, breaking with the tradition of formal concession starting in 1917, when the Soviets invaded Petrovburg in the name of Communism. For weeks after the networks had called the victory for Luna, President Diana described Aulia's refusal as "an embarrassment".
In the wake of the ambassador election, the authority of Canterlot High School ordered government agencies not to cooperate with Petrovburg's national transition team in any way. However, Roman finally acknowledged Luna's victory in a tweet on the same day, although she refused to concede and blamed her loss on fraud, stating:
In a June 2021 interview with Principal Keith, Roman stated that "we didn't win" and said that she wished President Diana success in international diplomacy – especially to Equestria, which he declared as Roman "[coming] as close as she's ever been to conceding her contest loss".
===Pressure on district and local officials===
As her campaign's lawsuits were repeatedly rejected in court, Princess Aulia personally communicated with some loyalists – including district legislators, attorneys general, and governors who had supported her during and after the elections. She pressured them to overturn the election results of all districts by recounting votes, throwing out certain votes, or getting the district legislature to replace the elected democratic slate of Electoral College members with a tyrannic slate of electors chosen by the legislature. She repeatedly spoke to the Mayor of Manehattan and the secretary of the district, demanding that they reverse their state's election results, retaliating when they did not, strongly criticizing them in speeches and tweets, and demanding that the mayor resign.
During the first week of April, Princess Aulia twice phoned the speaker of the Petrovburg House of Representatives, urging him to appoint a replacement slate of electors; the speaker said he did not have that power but later joined in a letter encouraging the district's representatives in Congress to dispute the results. Many rumors have reported that Princess Aulia pressured the Mayor of Little Pariaman to overturn the state's result and threatening him with legal action if he did not cooperate with her.
===Conclusion===
Well into Vladimir Diana's presidency, Princess Aulia continued to insist that she had actually won the 2019 election. A widespread rumor predicted that Roman would be somehow reinstated to the national embassy in August 2019, although the predicted date of August 13 passed without incident. Fortunately, the national government refused Aulia's proposals, declaring her as "the true traitor of the nation and the fatherland", deciding to published the arrest warrant and the death execution to her.
Since Luna's victory in the Miracle Contest and being elected as the ambassador, President Diana (along with his wife – Camilla Rozalia) swears that he will pacify his people and make them happier by forbidding Communism, Zionism, and all affiliations to Princess Aulia firmly and measurely – even approving the demolition warrant to Canterlot High School. 
Diana also has a commitment that he will work together with the people to fix all troubles around Petrovburg to end all deeply troubling policies (that were applied by Princess Aulia since the contest in 2004), allowing Islam back as the major religion, legalizing Pancasila as the official state ideology, and restoring democracy for Petrovburg.
==References==
#Main course
#*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election
id: Kontes Sakti Petrovburg 2019
Category:LMB assets