V8 drop rate study

The “golden rule” that players have to keep a certain number of specific cards they need is one of the most persistent beliefs among players. While it has been proven wrong for part cards, players object that it may still be valid for engines. As the test environment also allows to check several other hypotheses, they have been included.
== Assumptions ==
The following hypotheses were tested:
# Cards come to those who have them.The game grants less of a card if players don't have some of them in their inventory.
# Cards for events are always limited.The game grants less of a card during events requiring the card.
# Drop rates are dependent on a player's garage.The game grants less of a card if the player has vehicles that need them.
# Drop rates decrease for recently upgraded vehicles.The game grants less of a card that has recently been used to upgrade a vehicle.
== Test ==
To verify if such mechanisms exist, one test player (“the player”) contributing to WikiProject Statistics kept his inventory constantly void of V8 Engines, while all other players (“the peer group”) continued normally. Before the experiment, the test player also opened all pending and used up the engines so that there were no “hidden” V8 Engines in dedicated boxes either.
# Cards come to those who have them.As soon as a Pro Kit Box dropped a V8 Engine, it was immediately used to upgrade a vehicle before opening the next box. This ensured that the player never had a V8 when opening a box. If hypothesis 1 was true, the game should grant significantly less V8 Engines.
# Cards for events are always limited.During the test period, the player participated in the Bentley Continental GT3 Championship, the Koenigsegg Regera R&D and the Koenigsegg CCXR Trevita Championship. All three cars require V8 Engines, so the situation allows to test hypothesis 2. If it was true, the game should grant significantly less V8 Engines during these events.
# Drop rates are dependent on a player's garage.The player's garage contained 33 vehicles requiring V8 Engines that were not upgraded to pro level. If hypothesis 3 was true, the game should grant significantly less V8 Engines.
# Drop rates decrease for recently upgraded vehicles.When a V8 Engine was dropped, it was used to upgrade the Mercedes-Benz SLK 55 AMG, the Ferrari 308 GTS or the Spada Codatronca TSS which only require 1 engine per upgrade level. Thus, there was always at least one V8 vehicle that had recently been upgraded, fulfilling the requirement of hypothesis 4. If it was true, the game should grant significantly less V8 Engines.
The sample for this test was the database of WikiProject Statistics which has been evaluated from July 25 until the end of the Sixth Anniversary Mini Update on September 19, 2019. The observed Pro Kit Boxes were Daily Kit Box, Engine Box, Extra Box, Finish Line Box, Multiplayer Pro Box, Optimal Shuffle Box, Optimal Split Box, Random Box, Starter Box, and Ultra Box which are the most common ones.
If the assumptions were true, the player should encounter a significantly lower drop rate of V8 Engines than the peer group. If this was the case, more specific experiments would have to be performed to test which of the four hypotheses caused the decrease.
== Results ==
July 25, 2019 – September 19, 2019	July 25, 2019 – September 19, 2019	July 25, 2019 – September 19, 2019	July 25, 2019 – September 19, 2019	July 25, 2019 – September 19, 2019
Player 	OngoingV8 event 	V8Engines 	Enginestotal 	Relativefrequency
Test player 	Event 	25 	243 	10.29 %
Test player 	No event 	12 	140 	8.57 %
Test player 	Total 	37 	383 	9.66 %
Peer group 	Event 	15 	231 	6.49 %
Peer group 	No event 	17 	263 	6.46 %
Peer group 	Total 	32 	494 	6.48 %
The table to the right shows the frequency of V8 Engines in relation to all obtained engines. This has the advantage that the results are independent of different absolute amounts the players received.
=== Cards come to those who have them. ===
There were no V8 Engines in the player's inventory during the whole study.
* of the player's received engines were V8.
* of the peer group's received engines were V8.
Although the test player should have received less V8 Engines than the peer group, he even received significantly more than them.
 The assumption is wrong. There is no “golden rule” that players have to keep a certain number of specific cards they need most. The number of granted cards is independent of a player's inventory.
=== Cards for events are always limited. ===
For this test, the data during and outside events has been separated.
Player:
* of the received engines during events were V8.
* of the received engines outside events were V8.
Peer group:
* of the received engines during events were V8.
* of the received engines outside events were V8.
The player should have received less V8 Engines during events, but instead, he even received more. The peer group's results during and outside events were equal to one decimal place, although they also should have received less V8 Engines during events.
 The assumption has been proven wrong twice, both by the player's and the peer group's results. The game does not grant less cards needed by the featured vehicle during events.
=== Drop rates are dependent on a player's garage. ===
At the start, the player's garage contained 33 non-pro vehicles requiring V8 Engines. During the study, the number decreased to 31 because the player received so many V8 Engines that two of the vehicles had reached pro level. This does not change the fact that there was always a very large number of vehicles requiring V8 Engines.
* of the player's received engines were V8.
* of the peer group's received engines were V8.
Although the test player should have received less V8 Engines than the peer group, he even received significantly more than them.
 The assumption is wrong. The game does not analyze a player's garage and decrease the drop rate for cards needed by owned vehicles.
=== Drop rates decrease for recently upgraded vehicles. ===
There was always at least one V8 vehicle in the test player's garage that had recently been upgraded.
* of the player's received engines were V8.
* of the peer group's received engines were V8.
Here again, the player should have received less V8 Engines than the peer group because the game could have “detected” his plans to further upgrade these vehicles. This was not the case. He even received significantly more V8 Engines than the peer group.
 The assumption is wrong. There is no such algorithm that withholds cards a player may need to further upgrade recently upgraded vehicles.
== Further analysis ==
=== Opposite rules ===
As the test player's relative frequency of V8 Engines was higher than that of the peer group in all cases, one could even assume that there are opposite rules that grant more cards, for example, if players don't have a needed card in their inventory, or during events. If this was this case, the peer group should have had more V8 Engines during events than outside events, too. But only the test player had more cards during events; the peer group's results were equal. This indicates that there are no opposite rules either.
=== Strategy vs. luck ===
The reason for the difference rather lies in the test player's strategy:
Boxes opened by test player	Boxes opened by peer group
 	
As there were events requiring V8 Engines during most of the sample period, it can be seen from the above pie charts that the test player pursued a completely different box opening strategy than the peer group. The test player consequently opened boxes according to the real statistical V8 frequencies listed on Pro Kit Box statistics: average frequencies. The eleven most common boxes included in this study are shown in the table to the right. (Note: The table is updated automatically and may show different values in the future.)
Boxes like , and have the highest V8 drop rates, but have limited availability for a single player, so the amount of cards from these boxes cannot be increased at will.
However, the peer group neglected some boxes that are generally considered less “valuable” than others:
* The and have a general high drop rate of cards, along with small box sizes and considerable V8 drop rates. This makes them ideal for players searching for V8 Engines.
* The and the may not seem so interesting at first sight, but they have internal rules that increase the drop rates of desired cards:
** The Optimal Shuffle Box lets the player redraw up to two times, so it is actually three boxes in one. Furthermore, it always grants pairs of cards, so if players get a desired card, they already have it twice.
** The Optimal Split Box always grants two different cards to choose from. This means that it is actually two boxes in one where players can reject the cards they do not need.
* The , on the other hand, may have a relatively high V8 drop rate, but only grants exactly one engine per box. Players opening it will receive nine other cards that they may not need, having to fuse them in order to clear inventory space. A Daily Kit Box granting a V8 Engine is nice to have, but will not contribute much to a V8 strategy.
This test player's focus on the above-mentioned boxes explains the higher results compared with the peer group.
== Conclusion ==
It has been shown that all four assumptions are wrong. The game is far less “intelligent” than assumed by many players when it comes to random processes.
Furthermore it has been demonstrated that a purposeful box opening strategy based on statistical data can increase the drop rate of a desired item by more than .
== See also ==
* Myths – a list of “Asphalt myths” with explanations.
== References ==
Category:Asphalt myths
Category:Studies (WikiProject Statistics)