Conflicts of the 21st Century

The military conflicts of the 21st century are of great historical importance in the development of humanity. They set the stage for the Interplanetary War, which ultimately led to the UN space colonisation efforts. The 21st century was marked by nuclear proliferation; the rise and defeat of politicized religious terrorism; and repeated conflicts between Russia, China, the European Union, and the United States.
== Africa ==
=== Great African War (1998-2028) ===
With roots in the Rwandan Civil War, the Congo War of 1997, and other local conflicts, the Great African War, also called the Africa's Thirty Years' War or Africa's World War, consumed most of central, eastern, and western Africa in a large-scale asymmetrical conflict and left millions dead or displaced. The war primarily pitted Angola, Sudan, and Chad against a coalition of Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda over control of the Congo. This was exacerbated by the rise of Islamic militants in the Sahel, the continued insurgency of Christian extremists in Uganda, and the presence of American and Russian mercenaries. The conflict gradually saw Rwandan hegemony over all of the Congo and the defeat of the Angolan-backed Congolese government by an alliance of rebel groups, and the formation of the Confederation of Central Africa in 2024, a union of Congo-Kinshasa, the Central African Republic, Rwanda, and Burundi, with practical control over South Sudan, Darfur, and Congo-Brazzaville. The Sudanese were knocked out of the war after Egypt and Ethiopia intervened on the Central African side, with Egypt occupying northern Sudan. With the army stretched thin and unable to fight on multiple fronts, Sudan agreed to a peace treaty and allowed the separation of Darfur and South Sudan.
The conflict shifted to a war between Chad and the CCA, which was fought bitterly over the next four years as Central African forces gradually moved into southern Chad. These forces linked up with rebels, drove towards N'Djamena, and besieged it. In 2028, the government of General Deby collapsed and the rebels formed an interim Chadian government, which agreed to a ceasefire and considerable Central African aid, falling under its area of influence. In the conflict, the CCA made a tentative non-aggression agreement with the Boko Haram Islamic militants that were active in southwestern Chad, which would have unforeseen consequences in subsequent conflicts in Western Africa.
The war across Africa saw over 6 million killed, and many more displaced; economic collapse was imminent, and Central Africa rapidly sought assistance from China in pursuing its recovery.
=== Sahel War (2004-2033) ===
At the same time as the conflict in the Congo, western Africa also devolved into an array of civil wars culminating in a regional rivalry between emerging major powers. Continued French involvement in West Africa was justified as part of the global war on terrorism, which also included American involvement between 2004 and 2018. However, America's gradual disengagement from the war on Islamic terrorists left the war in the hands of French soldiers, mercenaries, and local Chadian and West African militaries. The real goal of French involvement in the region, however, was to secure mineral rights, especially to uranium in Niger. This was disrupted by various rebel insurgencies and the Islamic Boko Haram rebellion, the latter occupying much of northeastern Nigeria, western Chad, and northern Cameroons.
In 2020, revolutionary governments came to power in Niger, Togo, and Burkina Faso. They united to form the West African People's Federation in 2023, and engaged in a rivalry with Nigeria over control of Benin after the Beninese government collapsed, as well as conflict with French-backed mercenaries over control of regional mining interests. This spilled over with the war against Boko Haram and the Congo-Chad theatre after 2024. Central Africa's agreement with the Islamists allowed them to retreat to a base of operations in western Chad, and stage attacks in Burkina Faso and Niger, now part of the WAPF. West African forces intervened in northern Nigeria, which the Nigerian government viewed as an invasion, triggering a three-way conflict in 2025.
The war in the Sahel dragged on for three years, with the WAPF occupying a strip of land in northern Nigeria. A ceasefire brokered between Nigeria and WAPF ended their conflict, and partitioned Benin, and combined their efforts against Boko Haram. To this end, the WAPF invaded northern Chad. The interim government considered it a provocation for war, but the CCA held them back from engaging further as it did not want a major war with a potential ally in West Africa.
The WAPF and Nigerian coalition gradually destroyed Boko Haram from in a campaign from 2028 to 2030.
In 2031, the newly-elected socialist government of the Republic of Ghana signed a treaty of union with the WAPF, which then extended its influence across the region to the Ivory Coast, Guinea, and Sierra Leone.
=== War in the Horn of Africa (2008-2028) ===
An asymmetric conflict erupted in the Horn of Africa, in part spurred by the rise of militant Islamic groups in Somalia and Sudan, which carried out terrorist attacks and pirate raids on shipping in the western Indian Ocean. At the same time, separatist insurgencies erupted in ethnic regions of Ethiopia, particularly Tigray, Oromia, Afar, Amhara, and Ogaden. Djibouti, Eritrea, and Ethiopia all engaged in a series of low-intensity border clashes to resolve disputed boundaries. The insurgent Ethiopian regions also engaged in conflict with Somalia, which was in the process of a slow collapse. By 2014, Somalia had broken into the Republic of Somalia in the south, Puntland in the eastern Horn coast, and Somaliland in the north. In 2016, Ethiopia launched an invasion to occupy southern Somalia and guarantee the independence and mutual security of Somaliland and Puntland, provided that they crack down on Islamist militants allied to the then-active Islamic Caliphate. In 2018, Ethiopia annexed southern Somalia.
Ethiopia experienced intensified civil war from 2019 to 2024, but resolved these issues with a peace treaty brokered by the newly-elected prime minister Amin Ali. Building on a peace coalition from political parties within the insurgent regions, he developed a peace plan, called new elections, and rammed through a new federal constitution for Ethiopia. He was hailed as a new "father of the nation". The reinvigorated Ethiopian Federal Army provided support to the Confederation of Central Africa in their conflict with Sudan, supporting the separation of Darfur and South Sudan. Afterwards, the newly-stable Horn of Africa pivoted to peaceful development, and close cooperation between Djibouti, Somaliland, Eritrea, Puntland, and Ethiopia; over time, the other states came to be protectorates of the an economically-powerful Ethiopian federation, buoyed by Somalian ports and international trade with China, the EU, and the Gulf states.
== Americas ==
=== Mexican crisis (2002-2046) ===
The sharp rise in drug cartel and mercenary activity in the late 1990s under the direction of Samuel Lloyd, an American crime lord, had greatly destabilized the Mexican government. It was widely believed that the central bureaucracy and national police were heavily corrupted by a federation of Mexican cartels, who exerted influence through bribery, blackmail, and assassination. After the death of Lloyd in 2002, the cartels began feuding with one another, leading to an escalation in violence. The Mexican government, attempting to reassert control, declared a national war on drugs and used military intervention to directly combat the cartels and their mercenary armies. Controversially, the Mexican General Congress voted extraordinary powers to the executive, including the ability to suspend civil liberties and constitutional provisions in the pursuit of national security.
In 2006, the Mexican government requested the assistance of the United States in suppressing the cartels as well as a range of regionalist or factionalist insurgent groups that had emerged. US president Richard Cheney made harsh demands of the Mexican government: the states of Baja California and Sonora, and a strip of riverine land in Tamaulipas, were to be ceded to the United States as the first incorporated federal territories gained by America in almost a century. Cheney deemed it was in American interests to secure water rights over the Rio Grande and oil rights in northern Mexico. The US Army also occupied the states of Chihuahua and Sinaloa in order to conduct operations against the cartels. In the 2010s, it further occupied the states of Veracruz, Tabasco, and the Yucatan states to provide naval bases for American anti-piracy operations and blockading in the Caribbean pursuant to the US occupation of Haiti.
Almost immediately, a Mexican insurgency erupted from a broad coalition of Mexican nationalists, Maoist guerrillas, and indigenous rebels. Many strategic attacks were made on railways, oil pipelines, and military bases. The emerging Mexico Liberation Front (Frente liberacion mexicano) was clandestinely supplied and funded by the left-wing governments of Cuba and Venezuela, increasing tensions between the US and its central and south American neighbors. Over time, the Mexican government collapsed and had to be propped up by the American military, and much of the army defected to the FLM. This made up for the gradual decline in foreign aid to the rebels, as American presidents Edwards and Clinton dismantled America's embargo against Cuba and normalized relations with Cuba and Venezuela after years of tension.
A ceasefire and peace talks began between the US, Mexico, and the FLM began during the Clinton administration in 2023, spearheaded by Vice President Charles Compton. When Compton was swept into the Presidency in 2025 after Clinton's resignation, he continued the negotiations for a peace plan. While he refused to relinquish the Mexican cessions, the 2025 accords established a path to statehood for the new territories, and a plan to reduce American occupation in Mexico and hand power over to the Mexican army, as well as recognition of the autonomy of the Chiapas region. This came alongside an American foreign policy change to "work with Latin American nations on their own terms", and overall ally itself with center-left governments in Cuba, Venezuela, Brazil, Bolivia, and Argentina. Some historians now view this as a strategic act of realpolitik to reduce Chinese influence in Latin America by supporting a more moderate democratic-socialist path, presenting the US itself as part of the "pink tide"; this enabled the US to have strategic access of Venezuelan oil, even if it was at a price point beneficial to Venezuela, rather than lose those strategic reserves to China, with which the US was in a low-intensity trade war.
As a result of the peace plan, the Mexican territories of Baja California and Sonora and the commonwealth of Puerto Rico were admitted as US states in 2027, and this is retrospectively seen as what secured the Latino vote for the Democratic Party and President Compton in 2028 and for several electoral cycles afterward. Compton was able to mobilize this support for a widespread increase in the welfare state and radical action against climate change, as well as amending the Constitution to create national ballot initiatives and later dismantle term limits, allowing him to maintain the presidency well into the 2040s.
Despite these promises and the foreign policy shift, the US maintained a military presence in Mexico to combat drug cartels and assist the Mexican government for almost twenty years after the accords were signed. The FLM reorganized as a broad-tent social democratic party, taking the place of the older PRM/PRI dominant-party system to pursue land reform and social programs with American support.
=== Unrest in the United States (2016-2030) ===
The United States had a long history of racial discrimination and inequality. The Republican administrations from 2001 to 2013 exacerbated these tensions with neoliberal economic policies that targeted communities of color. The Democratic administrations from 2013 to 2025 did not make it a priority to reverse these policies, other than instituting limited healthcare reform and expanded welfare programs. The Republican party split along factional lines in the 2016 election, in response to Senator Barack Obama running for the presidency; the moderate and small-government Republicans split off to join the Libertarian Party, while the remaining Republicans radicalized towards white nationalism and religious conservatism. This "sundering of the right" catapulted Obama to the presidency from 2017 to 2021, followed by Hilary Clinton from 2021 to 2025.
Widespread protests by black civil rights groups increased during this time, in response to high-profile instances of police violence against black communities. This dovetailed during the election season with far-right opposition to Obama, the nation's first black presidential nominee and later president. The summer of 2016 was marred by riots between black civil rights groups and far-right armed militias, inflamed by police action against protesters, as well as by labor strikes. The rise of social media and cyber-culture enabled decentralized organizing and information dissemination far more broadly than it had before, though it also allowed for extensive propaganda and disinformation campaigns on all sides. These tensions did not abate after the election, but recurred in cycles during the hot months, and sharply increased in the 2020 and 2024 election years.
The ascendancy of vice president Charles Compton to the presidency in 2025 after Clinton's was a pivot point in the social unrest. Compton was a known progressive, espousing many of the talking points of social-democratic politicians; at the same time, Obama and Clinton were so inflammatory to the far-right due to their identity politics, and Compton campaigned mainly on economic issues. During his first term, he shifted markedly to the left, instituting an expanded welfare state and a climate change-oriented environmental policy, and passed legislation protecting both labor rights and marginalized identity groups. A fascist insurrection emerged by the time of the 2026 midterm elections, committing a spree of arson attacks and letter-bombings as well as fatal shootings. The US Army was mobilized to put down the revolt, and the American counterintelligence apparatus was directed at the far-right rather than the far-left for the first time in almost thirty years.
=== Orinoco Conflict (2024-2037) ===
The low-intensity conflict in Colombia between drug cartels, leftist guerillas, and government forces had become dormant in 2016 following a ceasefire agreement. However, in the wake of America joining the "pink tide" and a rise in Chinese influence in Latin American affairs, left-wing guerillas were emboldened and derived funding from Venezuela, China, and Cuba to restart their revolution in 2024. The Venezuelan government, now largely unshackled from US interference, aimed to detach the Orinoco plains region from Colombia and effectively absorb it into Venezuela as a base for cocoa production. To this end, it supported a coalition of communist armed insurgents. Colombia sought support from the US but was met with noncommittal responses as the US was attempting to rebuild its diplomatic relationship with Venezuela; instead, it pivoted to gaining support from Russia, although Russian resources were stretched thin. At the same time, Brazil supported insurgents in the Amazonas region of Colombia.
The conflict dragged on as Venezuela and Brazil continued to support the insurgents, and Russian state-backed mercenaries engaged in numerous atrocities leading to retributive violence. The Tsarist Revolution in Russia in 2036 abruptly ended Russian support for Colombia. However, Venezuela zeroed in on another strategic goal: securing the Guyanas highlands; in a diplomatic summit, the Venezuelan and Brazilian governments agreed to cease all support for the insurgency in exchange for the Venezuela's peaceful annexation of the western Guyanas and Brazil's annexation of the Amazonas. Colombia reoriented its military to ruthlessly crushing the insurgency with overwhelming force, led by General Hector Perea.
Perea used his base of support among the military to seize power in a coup d'etat in 2041. He came to be a close ally of Tsarist Russia in the 2050s.
=== Venezuelan War (2046-2060) ===
After a decade of simmering tension, Venezuela restarted support to leftist militias in the Colombian highlands. General Perea did not waste time with a low-intensity guerilla war, and instead launched a full-scale invasion of Venezuela in 2046 after finding dead Venezuelan advisors alongside rebel corpses after an air raid in the Orinoco region. With Russian material support, training, and special forces involvement, the Colombian Army waged a war of conquest. Venezuela pulled its army back to Caracas to prepare for a siege, while its extensive militia force dispersed into the jungles to fight a guerilla war. The Guyana Highlands campaign and the war of attrition in the Amacuro Delta became meat-grinders for Colombian and Russian forces. Caracas held out from siege, mostly due to Cuban resupply efforts, and the inability of the Colombian navy to cross the Panama Canal.
The US refused to directly involve itself in the war, only sending patrols to prevent the conflict from spilling over into its protectorates in Central America and the Caribbean; president Compton saw the war as a consequence of Venezuela's reneging on the peace terms of 2036. Republicans, hawkish Democrats, and others loudly complained at Compton's path, and he announced that he would not run for reelection in 2048. The first Republican administration in 35 years took the White House, but president Zachary Howell only cautiously involved itself in Venezuela, at first only sending special forces to train and equip Venezuelan guerrillas in the Guyana Highlands.
The war spilled over into the Dominion of Guyana, under restored British protection, drawing the UK into the conflict to secure Guyanese borders. A multinational force of Commonwealth forces deployed into Guyana and engaged with Colombian army units in the Battle of Mahdia in 2050. The UK called on the US to uphold its numerous mutual defense pacts, leading to the US Congress passing the Venezuela Resolution in late 2051, an authorization of the use of military force to liberate Venezuela from Colombian domination. 
As Allied ships patrolled close to the opening of Lake Maracaibo in April 2052, Colombian shore guns fired to deter them. One shell struck the deck of a British destroyer, and American ships returned fire with cruise missiles, destroying the shore guns and the Maracaibo Army Base. In the aftermath, Canada and the UK combined their forces into Royal Forces Guyana, while the US deployed three Army Corps, two Marine forces, and two air forces to conduct a land campaign in Venezuela directly. The US command, organized as the Military Assistance Command South America or MACSA, would consume American military efforts for the next nineteen years, and would be augmented by military forces from Mexico, Cuba, and Brazil. MACSA first planned to relieve the siege of Caracas through an amphibious landing and supporting airborne assaults in July 2052, followed by a similar assault at Merida on Lake Maracaibo in September. A pincer maneuver brought a continuous beachhead along coastal Venezuela. The Colombian Army made a mad dash for Panama in an attempt to secure the canal and enable their navy's movement into the Caribbean theatre, but this was repulsed.
After 2052, the conflict devolved again into a war of attrition.
== Asia ==
=== American wars in West Asia (2001-2018) ===
In late 2001, a terrorist attack conducted by Islamist militants on the United States gave pretext for a large-scale American intervention in Western Asia and North Africa (the "Middle East"). The war is retrospectively agreed to have been about securing petroleum and mineral rights across the region in favor of America and its allies, driven by a resurgence of American imperialist sentiment within the governing conservative parties. The conflict began with American invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, followed by an invasion of Iraq in 2003, and an invasion of Iran in 2008, concurrent with asymmetric warfare in the Hindu Kush highlands. At varying points, the US was supported by a NATO coalition as well as Australia and Pakistan, which gradually distanced itself as European attention was drawn to Russia and Ukraine.
The US positioned this as part of global "War on Terror", initially confronting the Islamist group Al-Qaeda and its bases in the Afghan mountains. In March of 2003, the US launched an invasion of Iraq, targeting it as a supporter of Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups, and alleging that it had possession of weapons of mass destruction. While the initial invasion of these regions saw rapid gains, they turned into protracted wars of attrition. Iraq saw its Arab Socialist government overthrown and replaced by an American occupation authority. A partition plan was discussed, which saw Kurdistan hived off as an independent republic, dominated by the Kurdistan Worker's Party; but revelations of the plan proved scandalous to the American and British public, causing civil unrest at home. At the same time, Al-Qaeda cells in Iraq linked up with Islamist militias in Syria, Arabia, and the Levant and declared a new Islamic State, spurring a new wave of revolts alongside the nationalist Iraqi insurgency. 
In August of 2008, fearing Iranian development of nuclear technology and weapons, the US military launched a pre-emptive strike on Iranian nuclear reactors under construction, and paired this with cruise missile attacks on Iranian military installations. In late September, they launched a full-scale invasion from the east, securing Pakistani involvement with promises to support Pakistan's claims over Kashmir. The American "blitz" into Iran besieged Tehran by the end of the year. Around the same time, the US assassinated the leader of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. After Tehran fell in 2009, numerous competing militias formed an insurgency against both the Americans and against the rump Islamic Republic, which situated itself in the southwest around Ahvaz. A transitional government was established in Tehran, Turkey occupied northwestern Iran, and Pakistan occupied Baluchistan, while the US military secured most of northern and central Iran. After gradually waging a successful war against the rump Islamic government, the provisional Iranian parliament reinstated the monarchy under Reza Shah II in 2012. The US was increasingly committing its forces to Iran to support the new regime, and underwent a process of "Arabization" of the war in Mesopotamia against the Islamic State, with the Iraqi Republic taking over all military operations in Iraq by 2014. At the same time, Pakistan took over increasing duties in Afghanistan, overseeing the transitional Afghan government into a tribal confederation. 
Between 2013 and 2018, the US gradually reduced its presence in Iran and Afghanistan, mobilizing for war in Europe. The last American forces departed Iran in 2018, just as NATO was gearing up for a massive offensive in Ukraine. 
=== Arab Civil War (2011-2019) ===
After American forces demobilized from the Middle East, the power vacuum was filled by the Islamic State, a radical Salafi Islamist transnational government seeking to unify the Arab states under the banner of militant Islam. The "Arab Spring" of democratic revolts in 2011 in North Africa, Yemen, and Syria were co-opted by military juntas in order to contend against the rising Islamist threat; however, Syria saw an asymmetric war as the Russian-backed nationalist government fought both NATO-backed rebels in the south, Islamic State forces in the west, and socialist militias affiliated with the Kurdistan Worker's Party in the north. The Islamic State overthrew the Iraqi government in June 2015, with the surrendering Iraqi Army reorganized as the Army of Islam, giving the Islamic State two armored divisions and several motorized divisions as well as weapons, helicopters, and vehicles that enabled it to wage a modern war; it restyled itself the Islamic Caliphate, with leader Abu Bakr taking the title Caliph of Islam. The following month, the Syrian government collapsed and President Al-Assad was assassinated, ushering in a rebel coalition into power. Turkey, already stretched thin confronting Russia in the Caucasus and occupying Iranian Azeristan, negotiated a ceasefire with the Kurdish secessionists, who were by this point deeply involved across national borders in northeastern Syria and the independent Kurdish Republic.
The Syrian, Egyptian, Libyan, Jordanian, Saudi, and UAE governments agreed to a stronger military integration within the Arab League in preparation for an assault via Saudi Arabia into Iraq. The Caliphate took the initiative and marched across the border into Saudi Arabia first. The League army mobilizing in the region was caught by surprise, and suffered a series of minor defeats that saw the Arab states temporarily put on hold the Arab-Israeli conflict in order to seek aid from the IDF. The Arab and Palestinian resistance to Israel split; the secular nationalist and socialist groups agreed to a ceasefire, while Islamist groups allied with the Caliphate and bitterly fought on. The Caliphate declared a jihad to conquer the Arabian peninsula and retake the Two Holy Mosques from the Saudis, who they declared to be decadent puppets of the West; Caliphate-backed rebels sprouted up in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, leading to harsh crackdowns. An incident where protesters were shot on the steps of the Grand Mosque in Riyadh led the clerical council to overthrow the monarchy and pledge fealty to Caliph Abu Bakr II. Caliphate forces moved south along the eastern coast and into the Nejd, while Saudi remnant forces, acceding to Jordanian military authority, controlled the western coast along with Mecca and Medina. The King of Jordan was declared King of Hejaz, effectively dissolving the Saudi state. Iran joined the war with an invasion of southern Iraq, tying up soldiers that would otherwise have been committed to Arabia.
From 2016, the Caliphate had a continuous line of supply and movement down to the UAE and to Yemen, turning the Arabian front into a long trench war. As a coalition of Turkish, Kurd, and Syrian forces pushed the Caliphate out of Syria, Prince Ali bin al-Hussayn emerged as the leader of an Iraqi resistance movement centered around Mosul, forming the provisional Kingdom of Iraq. The war between the Caliphate and the Arab League dragged on for two more years. Despite an attempted push north towards Jerusalem, the Caliphate lost most of its army in a battle of annihilation near Aqaba, and their supply lines collapsed. The Caliphate was unable to sustain its war in Arabia and retreated to Iraq to mount a defense, but this failed as Baghdad fell under siege. The city fell in 2019, and the Army of Islam disintegrated. The Kingdom of Iraq was formally established under Ali; the Nejd was reorganized under his brother Faisal, in the Jordanian model.
In the aftermath, the allied Arab monarchies agreed to form an Arab Federation, which came to include the UAE in the 2020s. There was no singular head of state; rather, the monarchs collectively would act as a directory for the Federation, governing alongside a nationwide parliament. The war's most lasting impact, however, was in widely discrediting "militant Islamic" as a political force.
=== Indo-Pakistan War (2019-2021) ===
Pakistan rapidly became a major power in southwestern Asia with American assistance. In 2007, Pakistan had obtained American commitment to support its claims over Kashmir and a future annexation of Afghanistan, in exchange for America's free hand in the Hindu Kush to crush Al Qaeda and the Taliban. India developed closer diplomatic ties to Russia and China, especially after the rise to power of a far-right Hindu nationalist party and premier in 2014. After the US pulled its forces out of the Hindu Kush in 2017, the Indian military launched airstrikes into Pakistani territory, targeting alleged terrorist training sites in the mountains connected to the Kashmir insurgency, in conjunction with revoking Kashmir's autonomous status. Pakistan responded with setting up anti-air missile sites and instituting a no-fly zone along the border in Kashmir, and India responded with stationing intermediate range nuclear missiles in the region and militarily occupying it. By this time, China had pivoted away from supporting India under the revitalized socialist policies of its president Xi Jinping, and the US under a new administration had disavowed its support for Pakistan. China made a pact with Pakistan to guarantee the neutrality of the region.
However, the increased tensions in Kashmir broke out into war in mid-2019. With European and American forces tied up in occupation duties in Ukraine and western Russia, there was little the North Atlantic alliance was able to do other than enforce sanctions against the combatants. As the war ground to a stalemate, India seemed poised to use their tactical nuclear weapons against the Pakistani army in order to break the deadlock. In an effort to forestall nuclear disaster, China supplied Pakistan with weapons and supplies, hoping that Pakistani forces would rapidly take control of Kashmir and force India to the negotiating table. An ceasefire was called in late 2020, and China sought to arbitrate a peace conference; it ended with only the mutual, binding agreement to not use nuclear weapons, with Chinese guaranteeing the terms. When military operations resumed in February 2021, the Indian military broke its promises and secretly stationed nuclear missiles not far from the conflict zone. When aerial reconnaissance by Pakistani forces revealed this, it dragged China into the war directly on the side of Pakistan. Chinese army groups marched into India's border regions, occupying Nepal and Bhutan to allow mountain access to their armored forces. China secured the nuclear weapons after a week with minimal fighting, but continued occupation of Indian border areas.
The war dragged on with the peace process stalled for another year, until a second ceasefire was brokered with US involvement. The Treaty of Shanghai in May 2021 established a joint US-China peacekeeping mission in Kashmir with all of Jammu and Kashmir placed under UN administration, with recognition of China's claims over Aksai Chin. It was declared a demilitarized zone, and neither Pakistan nor India were legally entitled to any claims upon the area. As the peace conference continued into the 2020s, it was expanded to include independence for Kashmir, which was formally recognized in 2025.
=== Borneo War (2023-2027) ===
The long-running Maoist insurgency in the Philippines spilled over into neighboring Borneo in the late 2010s following harsh government crackdowns that reversed peace talks between the New People's Army and the Philippine government. A simmering conflict between Malaysia and the Philippines over sea lanes, piracy, and insurgent bases boiled over as the Philippine Army invaded North Borneo and occupied much of the coastland after significant fighting. NPA guerrillas linked up with allied militants in the Borneo highlands, threatening the stability of the Indonesia-Malaysia border. Indonesia reinforced its forces in Kalimantan, and the Indonesian parliament placed sanctions on Malaysia for harboring communist and Moro separatist militants. In 2024, border clashes escalated into war and Indonesia invaded Sarawak. Australia declared a state of emergency in Oceania, fulfilling its mutual defense treaty with Malaysia, and moved several destroyers into the region, aiming to force Indonesia and the Philippines to stand down. Instead, the Indonesian Navy opened fire on approaching Australian ships; in response, Australia moved to occupy Western New Guinea and give direct support to the separatist insurgents there. Australian-controlled areas were ceded to Papua New Guinea, except for West Papua as a staging area for Australian soldiers.
Indonesia restarted its nuclear weapons program, drawing the ire of the UN. The US Navy stepped up patrols in the area as well, but was divided on supporting Australia or the Philippines; the neutral stance of the world's largest superpower only destabilized the region more, and the US began to gesture towards supporting the Philippines. Australia was unable to take on Indonesia on its own, and the minimal assistance provided by the US forced it to look elsewhere for support. Australia developed closer ties with China as the war escalated, with the PLAN conducting patrols in the South China Sea to draw Philippine military resources away from the war in Borneo. As a consequence, American and Chinese navies entered a standoff, nearly unraveling years of peaceful cooperation between the two superpowers.
With the ascent of the more youthful Charles Compton to the American presidency, disaster was averted in early 2025. Compton led negotiations with Chinese president Xi and both nations agreed to scale back their patrols while supplying Australia with arms and air support. The war proceeded with Australia taking the initiative and ousting belligerent armies from Sarawak and Sabah. In the 2027 peace treaty, Indonesia was forced to recognize Aceh independence, the Philippines recognized Moro independence, and Sarawak was granted special autonomous status within Malaysia which restored its Raja; Australia took over interim governance of a reunited Timor, and Malaysia received the Riau islands to reinforce its security. Peace talks in 2028 between the NPA and the Philippine government resulted in a ceasefire, with the Maoists governing most of Mindanao island.
=== Arab-Israeli Standoff (2025) ===
Israel had broken decades of tradition in allying with the Arab League against the Islamic Caliphate in the 2010s, and the Arab states for the first time recognized Israel as a state; this was coupled with a civil war in Gaza between Palestinian factions, seeing the defeat of the Islamist Hamas party by a united front of Fatah, the PFLP, and DFLP. It was hoped that the mutual assistance treaty would see the reopening of the Palestine peace process. However, the Israeli far-right government that ascended in 2013 accelerated the state's apartheid policies and colonization of the West Bank region, sparking a Palestinian insurgency. Tensions led to a standoff in 2025 as Israel militarily occupied Gaza and the West Bank in preparation for annexation, leading to the deaths of over a thousand Palestinian civilians. In response, Egypt and the Arab Federation mobilized troops at their border. A naval skirmish off the Lebanese coast threatened to turn the standoff into a nuclear conflict.
The UN passed a resolution for military intervention to prevent the war from escalating, and an American-Chinese-EU invasion proceeded with minimal bloodshed. American popular support for Israel waned, the geopolitical necessity of peace with the oil-rich Arab Federation, meant that the US pivoted to a neutral policy in the region, ceding to Chinese and European support for Palestinian self-determination. Egypt, Israel, and the Arab Federation demobilized their troops at the borders, and the coalition forcibly enforced the 1947 UN partition plan, with Jerusalem declared an international free city, and Israeli colonies in the West Bank to be gradually dismantled. Palestine joined the Arab Federation as its first republican member state; Israel's government accused the coalition forces of antisemitism and ethnic cleansing in Palestine, but the Israeli public overwhelmingly supported the two-state partition plan in polls after the conflict. In the subsequent Knesset election in 2026, Labor won in a landslide, putting in place an Israeli government seeking rapprochement with the Arab Federation. Further peace talks in 2026 and 2027 allowed for Israeli Jews who had settled in the West Bank to remain as Palestinian citizens. Many Israelis of European descent fled the country, resettling in refugee centers in Hungary, Poland, and the Ukraine.
=== India Civil War (2027-2040) ===
India had seen a long-standing insurrection by Maoist guerrillas in the eastern part of the country, primarily Jharkand, Bihar, Orissa, and Chhattisgarh, though this had steadily declined after 2018. However, in the wake of India's failed war with Pakistan and the increased restrictions on civil liberties by the Hindu Nationalist government, the rebel movement was significantly revived. Rural provinces came under Maoist control through a united front strategy, using collaborating socialist parties as a way to engage in political struggle while the PLGA fought a people's war. While not yet shifting to an ideological foreign policy, it was in China's interests to weaken India and continue influencing Pakistan, so it clandestinely supported the Maoist rebellion through supply lines in Nepal.
India sought assistance from Russia, which supplied them with aircraft and provided training. However, Russia had slowed down its industrial might in the wake of its defeat in Europe and no longer could sustain the kind of buildup it had undertaken during the Putin years. Russian assistance and materiel came slowly and lightly to India, and the rebels out-competed the Indian forces in armament as they seized armories and received Chinese weapons. A Sino-Indian-Russian standoff occurred, drawing Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Khwarazm into the conflict on the side of China, and Kazakhstan on the side of Russia and India. Geopolitical tensions remained high for over a decade as war broke out between Kazakhstan and Khwarazm that threatened to draw the other states into a new world war. However, diplomacy brokered by US and the EU helped cool tensions between the nuclear powers. They relegated themselves to a proxy conflict with material and political support.
In the 2030s, China nationalized several previously-independent corporations, and ideologically shifted farther left in what was termed the "Return to Mao". As a consequence, China provided greater political support to the Maoist guerrillas. The Indian government declared a national emergency in 2031, instituting rule by decree and attempted to ban several leftist political organizations on the pretense of being fronts for the CPI(M), enforced by attempts by the police to arrest many provincial governments in the east. This caused extensive protests, which were responded to with harsh crackdowns by the national police and the Army. With antigovernmental sentiment at an all-time high, the Maoists took the initiative and made an alliance with regionalist insurgents in northeast India, forming the National Democratic Coordination Committee. With considerable control over provincial governments and legislatures, and popular support for revolution, the core "revolutionary territories" in Northeast India, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, and Orissa declared separation as the People's Republic of Hind in 2032. Rebel activity continued in several other regions of India, but the PRH allocated significant resources to stabilizing their area of rule. Bangladesh and Nepal acted as the main thoroughfares for Chinese material aid; China cautiously danced around officially recognizing the PRH, however, as doing so would break off diplomatic relations with India and likely Russia and America with it. The Indian Army fought a pair of grueling encirclement campaigns in the West Bengal pocket and the Arunachal pocket, but these were losing engagements with the inability to receive air support and resupply.
India simultaneously contended with separatist rebellions in Telangana and Punjab. While these were unconnected to the ongoing Maoist revolution, and often were ideologically opposed to the communists, they benefited each other by stretching India's defense forces thin. A progressive and peace coalition lead by the INC and several socialist parties won the 2039 election, and forced the Hindu nationalist government out of power. The new government brokered a ceasefire with all militant parties, seeking an armistice and hoping for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The subsequent multilateral peace conference led to the independence of Punjab as the State of Khalistan, an ethnic homeland for the Sikhs; Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh were recognized as the restored State of Hyderabad; and a peaceful coexistence between the Republic of India and the People's Republic of Hind- though it stopped just short of recognition of the separation.
=== Central Asian War (2031-2037) ===
While the conflict was ongoing in East India, tensions between Kazakhstan and the other republics of Central Asia flared. In 2028, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan unified into a federal republic, under pressure from Kazakh military buildup and closer cooperation with Russia. Two years later, border clashes broke out into full-scale war; Kazakhstan was backed by Russia, while the new Khwarazm Federation was backed by China and Iran. Kazakh operations mainly focused on occupying and holding the eastern quarter of Khwarazm, around the Tajik Republic, moving Russian material through the Karakoram mountains into neutral Kashmir and then into India, bypassing the border with Pakistan-occupied Afghanistan. Iran became entangled in the conflict by supporting Khwarazm, though as it depended on American assistance for its revitalized nuclear program, it had to tread carefully to avoid war with Russia or hewing too close to China. The conflict overall threatened to draw Russia, China, India, and Pakistan into a four-way nuclear standoff before US and EU diplomats negotiated a de-escalation.
By 2036 ,the situation changed drastically as Russia became embroiled in a civil war against a Tsarist insurgency in St Petersburg and the Far East. The Russian Army was committed fully to countering the insurrection, and was no longer able to devote money, equipment, training, or support troops to Kazakhstan or India. With the abrupt cessation of Russian aid, the Khwarazmid Army was able to break through the Kazakh lines and recapture the southeast district, and the Kazakh occupation force retreated to the area surrounding Lake Issyk. With the collapse of Russian involvement, China took the initiative and deployed an armored corps to support Khwarazm directly and encircled the Kazakh force. With Chinese troops massing at the border, Kazakhstan agreed to peace talks. The subsequent treaty restored the status quo ante bellum.
=== Sino-Russian War (2047-2052) ===
By the late 2040s, the Russian Empire had accumulated a modernized, powerful military. It sought to re-establish ties with India, restart the "eternal conflict" with the global left, and especially to oppose Chinese hegemony in Asia. It pursued aggressive posturing in its western border as a distraction while mobilizing near Manchuria and Mongolia. In February 2047, Chinese troops became engaged in a border clash with Kazakh forces while pursuing Uyghur secessionists in Xinjiang across the border. China used the incident as a pretext to launch reprisals against Kazakhstan. Russia declared war in defense of Kazakhstan and deployed its divisions to occupy Tuva, Mongolia, and northern China. Throughout the next two years, this developed into a brutal trench war. Russian and Chinese air power was checked by effective laser and missile antiair weapons. Both sides knew each had sufficient nuclear armament to obliterate the other, and both sides knew the Western powers would strike in return for their own defense. The land war ground into a bloody stalemate, restrained from escalating into nuclear war only due to mutually assured destruction.
The hopes of both sides of committing to maneuver warfare with rapidly-moving armored formations and air power were cut short by mass use of individual anti-armor and anti-air weapons. The use of rudimentary powered exoskeletons by both forces enabled more troops to carry more explosive weapons, with the result being disastrous for tanks, helicopters, and low-flying aircraft. However, the Chinese had one edge: fast tactical bombers, which devastated Russian positions throughout the winter of 2049. As the Russian forces were reinforced and mobilized for a spring offensive, the veterans were exhausted and half-starved. The going was difficult, and only the use of capable interceptors scrambled from field positions allowed them to counter China's operational bombing capabilities. Until now, the conflict had mostly remained a border war. In the late spring of 2049, the Russian Imperial Air Force began precision-bombing Chinese factories in the north, damaging Chinese industrial war capacity, and paving the way for the Russian occupation of Manchuria.
Russian army groups overran Harbin and Jilin in 2049. The PLA regrouped and prepared to defend along the Liao River and the Liaodong peninsula over the course of the summer, laying minefields and drawing up trenches. The abrupt bombing of Shenyang caught the Chinese forces by surprise, and Russian forces overwhelmed Chinese lines, largely bypassing the Liaodong and moving straight for Beijing. A small contingent of Russian troops moved to secure the Liaodong Peninsula, but the majority of Army Group Manchuria moved on, led by Field Marshal Rostislav Romanov. Beijing became the target of encirclement campaigns, and drawn-out siege. When the PLA relieved the defense forces in late 2050, Russian forces pulled back to Manchuria. With the Chinese now on the offensive, the Russian Imperial Army used scorched-earth tactics on the march to defensive positions beyond the Liao River. The Liaodong Pocket continued to be a bloodbath as Chinese forces were reinforced by sea, but Russian land and air elements continued to push in. The PLA arrayed themselves in trenches again during 2051 throughout Manchuria, barely inching forward in spite of enormous losses. By the end of the year, both combatants were exhausted
Japan made a considerable diplomatic coup by successfully offering to host the peace conference in Kyoto. In January of 2052, the war ended in a stalemate. Beijing had been threatened, but not captured, and Russian forces had not been completely repulsed from Manchuria. In the end, over two million soldiers were killed or wounded, with over a hundred thousand Chinese civilians dead. The peace treaty set the borders to back as they had been in 2047. Tuva was re-annexed to the Russian Empire. Kazakhstan and Khwarazm had successfully maintained neutrality during the conflict, and developed closer economic ties; in 2060, Kazakhstan joined the Federation of Khwarazm, significantly challenging Chinese strategic power in Central and Southern Asia.
The general who had led the defense of Beijing, Sha Xiaoma, was named by the Central People's Congress to be the first Generalissimo in over seventy-five years, and elected him as president of China and chairman of the CPC. This was controversial with the hardliners in the party, as Sha was representative of a reformist faction that had been gaining ground since the death of chairman Xi Jinping in 2029. Adherence to the Maoist Revival had decayed over the years, and a social-democratic reform movement had accelerated that sought a strong military combined with greater government transparency, in part motivated by Chinese nationalism. Under president Sha, China recognized the reality of the far-right resurgence in Europe as a major threat, and moved to align itself with the western social democracies, what he termed a "global united front".
== Europe ==
=== Northern War (2014-2019) ===
In 2013, a popular uprising backed by the United States led to the removal of Victor Yanukyovich as president of Ukraine. New elections swept a right-wing nationalist coalition led by Yulia Tymoshenko into power. Early 2014 saw violent confrontations with pro-Russian separatists in the east, with mercenary involvement on both sides, followed by Russian occupation of the Crimea. US involvement was slow due to its commitments to the Middle East, compelling the European Union members to step in and provide arms and materiel to Ukraine. This inflamed tensions between Russia and the eastern EU states, including the Baltic republics; Russia began stationing troops along its western border, which led to unofficial skirmishes between Russian, Polish, and Baltic forces. 
A second front was opened in the Balkans in 2015, as Serbia declared itself an ally of Russia, folding the existing Kosovo and Bosnian conflicts into the war. Hungarian and Croatian forces moved into northern Serbia, supported by airstrikes. The recently-restored Serbian king Alexander II implored the ultranationalist government to surrender and spare the Serbian people from the ravages of war. Royalists smuggled him out of Belgrade as the nationalist faction moved to arrest him, and he reappeared in Montenegro; he vowed to restore Montenegrin autonomy under their own monarchy, and publicly called for a ceasefire with NATO. His government was recognized by the West, splitting the Serbian people; nationalist forces committed numerous massacres. NATO paratroopers dropped into Belgrade in 2016 and restored the King to power, forming a loyalist government that made peace. 
In 2017, after much deliberation, Ukraine was admitted to the European Union, prompting Russia to declare war on "aggressor nations" Germany, Poland, and the Baltic republics; in turn, the other EU states declared war on Russia. In September that year, Russia launched an invasion of the Baltics, prompting Lithuania to call for an Article 5 NATO response. The US was, at last, forced to mobilize for war in Europe. This was sluggish, however, as the US was still disentangling its forces from Iran and Syria. Russia pushed further into Ukraine, besieging Lvov. Belarus maintained neutrality, forcing EU-NATO forces to engage via the Baltics; Germany and Poland jointly occupied Kaliningrad. At the same time, a second front opened up in the Caucasus as Turkey engaged Russian forces in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. 
In early 2018, NATO launched a massive attack through western Ukraine, breaking Russian sieges and destroying airbases, coupled with a pincer maneuver through the Baltics toward St. Petersburg and Pskov. Russian president Putin came under increasing pressure by the military and intelligence communities to move to drastic action; nuclear weapons had to be threatened, or Russia would fall. Putin refused, causing several months of political tension. In late December, a cabal of far-right politicians, oligarchs, and security-service groups arrested Putin, placed defense minister Shoigu in charge, and declared themselves the "New Decembrists". They fortified Moscow, expecting a drawn-out siege and publicly threatened the use of nuclear weapons if NATO forces reached Moscow. As St. Petersburg, Pskov, and Rostov-on-Don fell in 2019, it was clear that Russia had disastrously lost the war but the military hardliners refused to yield.
A NATO covert operation spearheaded by US special forces infiltrated Moscow and liberated Putin from prison. Loyalists in the Russian Army rebelled against the New Decembrists after Putin made an appearance in St. Petersburg and declared an end to the war with NATO. The Kremlin was surrounded and a counter-coup arrested Shoigu and his government. In the subsequent Treaty of Minsk, Russia gave up territory it had acquired since 2008, Putin resigned the presidency and went into exile, and Kaliningrad was transferred to joint Polish-German administration. A new Ukrainian constitution established a strong executive Hetmanate, with Tymoshenko elected to the position with considerable power.
=== Albanian Crisis (2022-2025) ===
Civil war in Serbia had long spilled over into Albania, due to connections to the Albanian-majority Kosovo region. Albania borrowed heavily from international creditors, but especially Italian banks, to finance its defensive war with Croat and Serb militias and to support Kosovar self-defense forces. In 2022, subsequent to sovereign debt crises across the continent, the Albanian government defaulted on its loans. While most of Albania's EU creditors placed economic sanctions on it, its Italian ones were rather more serious and put pressure on the Italian government to take action. The root of the conflict lay in the exorbitant influence of banking and media industries on Italian politics, and in turn the control of such industries by individuals connected to organized crime. Their ruthless and direct methods trickled down the pipeline and informed Italian policy. In 2024, Italy mobilized an independent task force to invade Albania, without EU approval or consultation. The European Union reacted slowly, debating the matter in-council for a long time before proceeding to formal sanctions against Italy without fully suspending its membership. The Albanian government collapsed and was replaced with an Italian-appointed provisional authority, with contended with Albanian militias.
=== Italian Civil War (2024-2026) ===
Regional issues and partisan strife in Italy were inflamed by the allegations of corruption surrounding its invasion of Albania. The Venetian regional government held a poll and found that many supported separation, especially after the Italian military action, which was seen to mostly feed the ambitions of distant politicians and Piedmont industrialists. Southern Italians increasingly felt the same; linked by social media, online polling, and street activism, a separatist movement grew in these regions. In late 2024, the Italian government moved to suppress these with violence; protesters in Naples were shot, sparking an uprising. The Venice regional government declared independence in October, and Italian troops stationed there mutinied; the same pattern followed in Sicily and Naples, spurring military clashes in the Italian countryside. At the same time, leftist urban guerrillas took the opportunity amidst the chaos to resume their clashes with police and neo-fascist militia groups in the major cities, seizing control of Pavia and fighting bitterly in Tuscany and Umbria. A German-led EU Reaction Force was preparing to perform air support operations in Northern Italy.
In January 2025, Italian troops marched into Pavia, believed to be a holdout for leftist revolutionaries, intending on revenge killings in response to a bomb attack in Milan. As civilians fled to sanctuary in the Visconti Castle, the Italian Army surrounded it and launched incendiary weapons into the castle, burning much of it from the inside and killing 600 civilians. The regional assembly, led by the regionalist Lega party, declared Lombard independence in response to the Pavia Massacre. The EU security committee passed a resolution recognizing the right of self-determination for the Italian regions, and in July the EURF launched an aerial campaign targeting Italian Army and Air Force positions. This was followed by Franco-German ground operations in a pincer strike into the Po Valley, disarming surrendering Italian troops. The Italian Navy mutinied as the government collapsed in September 2025 and the separatist war came to an end. The subsequent Italian Revolution saw antifascist militias take control of several cities across central Italy and institute new forms of communal rule in lieu of the central government. The subsequent treaty between the breakaway states and the new provisional Italian left-wing regional governments led to the creation of the Italian Federation, composed of several Italian states under a limited directory-style government; many of the new states in Central Italy were under the control of a coalition of leftist parties, with considerable autonomy in establishing democratic socialism. The European Union, despite pressure from NATO, refused to crush the revolution and assisted the peace process with negotiating the amnesty of surrendered Italian soldiers, and recognized the Italian Federation as the legitimate government.
=== Second Russian Civil War (2036-2038) ===
An ultranationalist movement had been gradually organizing itself in Russia since its defeat in the Northern War in 2019. Far-right militias and mercenary groups had been a significant part of both sides of the conflict, and had become inordinately powerful within the Russian establishment. A nationalist coup against president Putin in late 2018 was quelled the following year as NATO supported his temporary reinstatement in order to force a peace treaty. In the aftermath, Putin went into exile and Russia was left to pick up the pieces. While Russia attempted to be a major actor on the world stage in the 2020s, assisting Kazakhstan and India in their conflicts in Central and South Asia, it was not able to sustain this activity. Ultranationalists rallied around the Russian Nationalist Party, advocating a strong central government, a strong conventional military, and national conservatism.
In December 2036, after a decade and a half of organizing, ultranationalists in the military staged a mutiny in the Russian Far East district, with naval squadrons linking up with army troops to occupy the coast and threaten bases into submission. At the same time, a coup was staged in Moscow against the national government, with rebel forces shelling the presidential palace and attempting to arrest the Duma. President Anatoly Voskin and his entourage retreated north to St Petersburg, while the legislature fell into the hands of the ultras. The revolution spread like wildfire, with elements of the military in rebellion alongside mercenary outfits and far-right militias affiliated with the RNP. As the Russian Army had been reduced to a bare minimum while relying increasingly on naval and air power as well as strategic missiles for deterrence after the Northern War, a military opposition to the RNP was not sustainable. St Petersburg was besieged, and president Voskin escaped via helicopter as the city fell in February 2037. The unitary Russian Republic was declared, replacing the federation, sparking separatist revolts in the Caucasus, and the capital was moved back to St Petersburg.
By early 2038, the loyalist Russian forces were cornered into Kamchatka and a strip of coastal land in the northwest along with some Arctic islands, with a base of operations on Novaya Zemlya island. President Voskin commanded from aboard an aircraft carrier, attempting to launch sorties and raids against the rebels but gradually seeing his air power whittled down. Nominally, the international community supported the Russian Federation; but the West stayed out of the conflict, and many former Russian allies had changed allegiances to China and consequently cared little for the stability or safety of the Russian state.
In May, the UN assembly made a resolution to pressure Russia to end the civil war and get both sides to agree to a ceasefire. The first step was to close all foreign ports to the Russian Federal Navy. The tide had turned decisively in favor of the ultranationalists. The UN Peacekeeping Force Russia, or UNPFRUS, deployed along the border of Russia's neighbors, and enforced port closures against the Russian Federal Navy. The world leered closer towards a confrontation. Eastern NATO nations in particular geared up for the worst, with Ukraine arming its nuclear forces and Poland and Belarus keeping its air forces on high alert. Either faction of Russia could turn violent.
By September, the Russian Federal Navy was running out of fuel, and banded together around its last holdouts in the north. Depleted of his resources, president Voskin vowed to enact vengeance on the revolutionary government. Intelligence leaked that submarines anchored at Archangelsk would soon launch their nuclear missiles at Moscow and St. Petersburg. Surface combatant warships would launch cruise missiles at various strategic targets. As NATO and the Russian Republic geared up for a joint special operation to neutralize the Federal Navy and capture its weapons, Ukraine took no chances and immediately responded with a nuclear strike on Novaya Zemlya with ballistic missiles. This was the first use of such a weapon in combat. The attack obliterated the Federal Navy and its bases, neutralizing the threat. However, the unilateral nature of the action infuriated many of Ukraine's NATO and EU allies, and was condemned by revolutionary Russia as an unnecessary and atrocious act of violence, stopping just short of referring to it as an act of war.
Within Russia itself, the ultranationalists set up a powerful centralized regime dominated by populist politicians and military generals. A figurehead was needed, and the new government lacked an appropriate republican nationalist leader. The movement had largely organized itself using social media and consensus-based decisions-making. No one person could be readily singled out as a leader, and a military junta had taken interim control. To bind the nation behind a strong, central authority, the provisional ruling council sought out nickel-mining magnate, banker, and Romanov heir Grand Duke George Mikhailovich to be officiated as Russia's head of state. This meant a nominal restoration of the monarchy, a plan intended by a significant faction of the ultranationalist movement. On November 2nd, on the 316th anniversary of the original declaration of the Russian Empire by Peter I, George was declared by law to be Emperor. A constitution and a coronation were to follow in January 2039.
Ukraine, under recently-declared Hetman Evgenia I, positioned itself as the "France of the east", a nuclear-armed counter to Russian expansion and aggression, though it faced sanctioned within NATO and threats of ejection from the European Union.
=== Unrest in Europe (2040-2072) ===
A low-intensity conflict emerged in Europe as far-right parties and armed groups, emboldened by the "Russian Counterrevolution", sprang into action and engaged in acts of domestic terrorism, rioting, and political agitation. This was concentrated in southern Europe in the 2040s, with waves of violence triggering military intervention, but Poland also saw some political unrest as its existing conservative government was overtaken by an authoritarian nationalist government. One subset of this wave of conflict was the Italian War, from 2036 to 2051, which saw somewhat more intense combat operations as a right-wing insurrectionary government seized power in Sardinia and Piedmont, and political militias engaged in street fighting and bombings similar to that seen in the Italian Civil War of the 2020s. In the midst of this, antisemitism rose in Eastern European countries, in part from simmering far-right opposition to Israeli refugees after the 2025 Palestine crisis, which occasionally spilled over into antisemitic violence.
Following in the wake of monarchist restorations in Hungary and parts of Germany in the late 2030s, the European traditional far-right felt emboldened to push for even further rolling-back of revolutionary and republican changes that had occurred in the early 20th century. Right-wing and conservative coalitions challenged the republican character of Austria in 2045. the Czech Republic and Slovakia in 2048, and Slovenia in 2049, each time witnessing plebiscites that narrowly voted to restore the House of Habsburg. However, the nationalist far-right largely failed to grasp that the new monarchies were deliberately liberal populist in nature, and took steps to placate liberal and labor parties after their restoration in order to maintain stability. The monarchist far-right was sidelined after the restorations. Emperor-King Ferdinand advocated for a liberal "Danubian Community" within the European Union, a close association between Austria, Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Bohemia that would act as a centerpiece for defense and economic development in the northern Balkans.
A crisis highlighted these ideological differences in 2055; while the king was head of state in both Austria and Hungary, they developed sharply opposing governments. The right-wing nationalist Fatherland Party rose to power in Hungary; conservatives had dominated the Hungarian government since the 2010s, with varying degrees of repression against democratic opposition, but the new party was vocally nationalist, anti-EU, anti-democracy, and promoted racial discrimination. This alarmed the European Union, which suspended (though did not completely sever) Hungarian membership in 2059. King Ferdinand was known behind closed doors to strongly oppose the new government, but found himself unable to act without provoking a constitutional crisis. Tensions between Hungary and the other members of the Habsburg-led Danubian Community flared in the 2060s, and it was strongly suspected that the Hungarian government funded far-right opposition parties in Austria, Germany, Slovakia, and Bohemia. In 2061, the new Emperor-King Charles V declared his intent to "recuse" himself from the Hungarian Crown; while not formally abdicating, he removed himself of all legal responsibility in the actions of the Hungarian state. The Hungarian parliament unilaterally declared the King removed from office, declared the Crown to be held in commission, and installed a military junta to govern the state; Hungary voluntarily left NATO and the EU. As a check on Hungarian aggression, Croatia voted to join the Danubian Community and accepted a personal union with Austria.
In Italy, a counter-insurrection by Prince Emmanuel of Piedmont seized control of the northwest rebel government, and sought a ceasefire with the Italian Federal Forces. Neutralizing the fascist wing of the revolt, he proposed an autonomous Piedmont, Aosta, and Sardinia under a personal union, within the Italian Federation. The peace treaty of 2051 ended the Italian War. However, far-right violence continued to escalate in rural France and urban Germany through the next two decades.
In 2066, Hungary was joined by Poland, Serbia, Romania, Portugal, and Greece in leaving the EU and/or NATO, and joining Russia in forming a global alliance of far-right authoritarian governments, the Samarkand Development Union. The alliance was joined globally by Indonesia, Iran, the Philippines, Khwarazm, Nigeria, Angola, Mozambique, Quebec, Colombia, Paraguay, Myanmar, India, Libya, and Iran by 2071. This would set the stage for World War III.
=== Ukrainian Civil War (2073-2078) ===
In the aftermath of the Russian Imperial Revolution, several decades of civil unrest in Europe, and the rise of European far-right movements, Ukraine became highly factionalized. Partisan groups bitterly opposed each other on pro-NATO and pro-SDU lines, as both major parties were right-wing. The Ukraine National Party supported economic liberalization, further integration with the EU, and an independent nuclear deterrent. The Ukrainian People's Party supported corporatism, closer ties with Russia, and emphasizing its conventional defense over nuclear deterrent. The UPP acted in coalition with various other far-right parties, while the UNP often found itself cooperating with more moderate liberal and social democratic parties, though both coalitions opposed liberalizing Ukraine's anti-communism laws.
By the early 2070s, this factionalism was spilling out into open street violence between armed political gangs. Hetman Evgenia was in advanced age and in hospice care, so government came to be centralized around the Prime Minister. The Rada elections in late 2072 saw much street fighting, and the results were too close to call. Both sides claimed victory, and both party leaders declared themselves the rightful Prime Minister. The dispute broke out into armed conflict in early 2073 as army divisions mutinied in favor of what each general saw as the legitimate government. The pro-Russian eastern government positioned itself in Zaporizhia, while the pro-EU western government centered itself in Lviv, with Kyiv becoming a battleground. Both governments claimed to be serving in the name of the bedbound Hetman Evgenia, whose heirs formally refused to make a political decision and instead urged both sides to cease fighting. The Royal Palace and adjoining hospital was the only site untouched by the civil war. The Russian-backed government took control of Crimea and Odessa, and increasingly hemmed in the Lviv government, which was supplied by NATO through the Slovak border and by airlift. The conflict ground on for four years in a stalemate before being absorbed into World War III.
== Global ==
=== World War III (2077-2082) ===