Ainu Nationalist Insurrections (2034-)

The Ainu Nationalist Insurrection (アイヌ民族主義者の反乱, Ainu minzoku shugi-sha no hanran lit. “Ainu Nationalist Rebellion”) is a guerrilla conflict between the Armed Forces of the Japanese Federation and the Ainu Nationalist Liberation Organization (アイヌ民族解放機構, Ainu minzoku kaihōkikō) and its splinter organizations, such as the Communist Party of Ainu Mosir (CPA, アイヌモシリ共産党, Ainumoshiri Kyōsantō), Ainu Mosir Democratic Front (AMDF, アイヌ・モシリ民主戦線, Ainu Moshiri minshu sensen), and the Ainu Defense Party (ADP, アイヌ防衛党, Ainu bōei tō). It is one of the numerous insurrectionist movements birthed following the Treaty of Lucern-Emmen (2032) and the Tokyo Protocols (2033). As of current, 30,216 have died on both sides, with 50,000 facing displacement in Northern Hokkaido. It is the second and largest insurgent movement to afflict Japan since the Japanese Red Army and has captured the attention of observers overseas.
The conflict has spread beyond the borders of Northern Japan with reported clashes between Russian Far Eastern (RFE) troops and ANLO partisans in Khabarovsk Krai, Sakhalin Oblast, and Southern Kamatchaka Krai. In addition, ANLO-affiliated operators in Norocosia have been identified as co-conspirators to the October 26th Attacks (Commemoration Day Attacks) as a response to the signing of the Expeditionary Forces Agreement.
China, the National Republic of Luzon, and the Davao State allegedly fund the ANLO and its allied organizations, as proven by the Kitakyushu Port Standoff and the Pilar District gun-running incidents. The accusations continue to be denied by all three parties, claiming Japan’s imperial ambitions and not foreign intervention as the cause.
==History==
===Background of the Ainu===
The Ainu people are an ethnic group that resides in Northern Japan along with the Kuril Islands, Khabarovsk and Primorsky Krais, and Southern Sakhalin. The Ainu are one of only two ethnic groups on the Japanese archipelago whose practices and traditions differ from the majority Yamato population. Since the 18th century, the Japanese Empire and its successor states have subjugated the Ainu, regarding them merely as “primitive barbarians.”  As a result, there are only around 10,000+ Ainu across Asia. There may be as many as 100,000+ Ainus of varying levels of descent, but this is difficult to quantify due to the near-total assimilation of the Ainu into Japanese society.
There have been attempts by the Ainu population to rebel against the Japanese, as seen in the Koshamain War (1456), the Shakushain revolt (1669-72), and the Menashi–Kunashir rebellion (1789). After 1789, there have been no significant instances of Ainu-Japanese violence. 
===The Eurasian War in Japan===
On October 26th, 2026, 8 jets of the Japanese Air Self-Defense Forces (now the Japanese Air Defense and Cyber Service) were hijacked by Chinese special forces and flown over Tokyo in a terror bombing campaign. The Eurasian War began in the East Asia Theatre as the PLA’s Northern Theatre Command landed in Niigata the following day. 
By December 2026, Chinese forces land on Hokkaido from Aomori Prefecture and the eastern coast of North Korea. Japanese resistance surrendered on the 26th, but remnant forces under Lt. Gen. Toshiya Okabe continued fighting until his death in January 2028, disorganizing the remaining troops across Japan.
===Democratic Republic of Ainu Mosir===
On January 15th, 2027, the Chinese Military Administration of East Asia reorganized the prefectures of Aomori, Hokkaido, the Kuril Islands, Sakhalin Oblast, Primorsky, and Khabarovsk Krais into the Democratic Republic of Ainu Mosir (DRA, アイヌモシリ民主共和国/Ainumoshiri minshu kyōwakoku) under the leadership of Yakumo Kaede, who at the time was a pro-Ainu activist based out of Aichi Prefecture.
===Atrocities===
During the war, the Japanese Government-in-Exile and the DRA committed war crimes against each other such as looting, forced displacement, mass executions, sexual assault and rape, torture, and arbitrary detention of civilians, among other offenses. According to independent research conducted by the Japanese Assessment Commission, around 200k - 1.73 million people are victims of crimes against humanity, with the displacement of nearly 20 million Japanese citizens across the entire war.
One of these atrocities is the Ishikari Incident on September 17th, 2029. DRA troops apprehended 17 students at a checkpoint near Chitose in the Ishikari Subprefecture. Under the assumption they were GIE, the leading commander at the checkpoint, Yu Shinkai, forced all 17 to kneel along a narrow ditch. The commander leads them to the Chitose garrison for “questioning.”
For the next 16 days, the troops of the garrison physically, sexually, and psychologically tortured the 17 students. Three students died within the day from blood loss. One of the female students had a knife stuck inside her, resulting in a massive perforation. She is then used as a bioweapons test subject, succumbing on October 1st to an advanced infection. By October 3rd, only 3 of the original students survive, escaping unsuccessfully into the wilderness of Hokkaido, only for a search party to identify them days later. They were subjected to sexual assault before they were finally executed by firing squad. A month later, GIE forces find their mutilated corpses abandoned in a ditch near the garrison.
The Japanese Government and its allies continue to condemn the incident, citing it as an example of the depravity of the PLA and its associate organizations. Whereas the PRC, DRA, and ANLO have continually denied the existence of the atrocities. In addition, many left-wing organizations across Asia have attempted to “clean” the records by decreasing the number of victims and clearing out critical details of the incident.
===Decline and Dissolution===
The Reorganized Forces of Japan, on November 19th, 2031, launched a naval invasion into Aomori, Hokkaido, and Northern Ibaraki Prefecture. “Operation Sakurajima,” as it was known, was the most successful seaborne invasion since Okinawa. After months of grueling fighting, especially around Tokyo, on April 2nd, 2032, PLA troops were finally expelled by forces of the RFJ. The remaining People’s Armed Services (DRA-PAS) troops fought until their surrender on May 9th, 2032.
On June 6th, 2032, Yakumo Kaede was captured by Japanese intelligence after a housewife who lived near his hiding place reported his whereabouts. The ad-hoc judicial commission found him guilty of crimes against humanity, and he was promptly executed by firing squad the next day in front of thousands of spectators. On August 15th, the DRA, through the Second Tokyo Protocol, was dissolved. The Protocol ended Ainu's “self-rule” in the region and reintegrated it into the now-Japanese Federation.
==The Ainu Defense Party==
Amid a power vacuum, former members of the Democratic Republic of Ainu Mosir and Tomo Kaede-Nakayama (Yakumo’s half-sister) formed the Ainu Defense Party. Initially, it had advocated for a commonwealth-style agreement. However, after numerous rejections from the Federated National Assembly, the party grew more militaristic.
Factions began appearing among the ranks of the ADP, many of whom were discontent with Tomo’s handling of the Ainu Accession Act, among others. One of these notable factions was the “攻撃/Kōgeki” faction, led by Saito Mushinato, a senior member from Niigata Prefecture. Along with the assistance of the Gunma and Tochigi chapters of the ADP, he rebelled against the Aomori-based headquarters. The scuffle resulted in what is known as the “Mushinato schism.”
Following the breakdown of cohesion among the ADP, the Nakayama and Kōgeki factions split, the latter becoming the Ainu National Liberation Organization, which absorbed the former ADP and made it its official democratic representation in the Japanese legislature. 
On March 17th, 2034, Tomo Kaede-Nakayama was found dead in her apartment. NPA officials and forensics deemed it a suicide. However, there has been evidence of foul play, as shown in the ballistics and the discovery of another party’s handprints inside her residence.
==The Ainu National Liberation Organization==
Amid Kaede’s sudden and suspicious death, Mushinato contacted the Chinese Consulate in Osaka to hold talks regarding possible military support against the recent remilitarization of the Japanese Federation. The Consular-General at the time, Ren Mienjang, allowed Mushinato’s group to acquire Chinese-made armaments through the lightly patrolled Le Perouse Strait and an illegal terminal within the Port of Monbetsu. 
In the following weeks, crates worth of arms, munitions, anti-tank missiles, and even armored vehicle parts began arriving under the guise of shipments of engineering materials for reconstruction efforts. The port was investigated following the death of a 9-year-old girl. Still, by then, the smuggling effort had already switched from the Monbetsu port toward the indigenous production of spares and materials, rendering the investigation useless.
== The Insurgency ==
The first attacks by the organization started on April 29th, 2034 when a student of the Hokkaido Institute of Technologies carried a homemade gun and opened fire upon a lecture room, killing 17 and injuring 49. Another attack was conducted a day after, with a car laden with explosives detonating inside Hokkaido’s Ministry of Industries. Consequent attacks on civil facilities continued, with the first attacks outside of Hokkaido targeted against a Russian logistics company in Khabarovsk Krai and another at a village in the Kurils which was conducted with the usage of a captured Dongfeng-15 missile. According to now-declassified records from the Ministry of Defense and Security, the rocket was assumed to be hidden among the many stocks across Hokkaido during the Eurasian War. Regardless, by this time, the amount of dead reached the hundreds, with no signs of slowdown.
Counteroffensives were first by the Hokkaido Mechanized Brigade, led by Lieutenant Eiko Sumeragi on May 4th, 2034. He, along with 47 members of the brigade, neutralized a stronghold in the town of Wakkanai, with no casualties on either side except for 19 prisoners. Another raid was conducted by members of the ad-hoc Task Force Saegiru, resulting in the deaths of 14 ANLO operatives and the seizure of crucial intelligence.
As tensions escalated, so did the attacks. The Japanese Government gave a formal declaration of a state of emergency across Northern Hokkaido on June 1st, along with the implementation of martial law across the island the week following, trapping millions under fire by both ANLO partisans and the Provisional Japanese Army. Anti-war protests became prevalent, especially for those residing close to the combat zone, petitioning the Japanese Government to ensure safe passage for those evacuating Northern Hokkaido. Those that remained were provided arms by the Government, holding out mostly in the Okhotsk (オホーツク) District.