Crafting Direction Tests

Category:Guides
Welcome to the supposedly first actual statistical test of the validity of the crafting compass. The article will consist of four components: my methods, the control, the favored high-quality direction, and the favored success direction. Hopefully it will put many theories to rest and not encourage angry debate. I will not interject my own conclusion, and will allow the results to be a formulation of the reader's own conclusions.
==My Methods==
I chose a simple and repeatable synth. Each test consists of approximately 240 results. Inaccurate or otherwise invalid data will be removed from the final results (such as those acquired in the middle of a connection loss, or data that was not recorded due to external circumstances such as chat log spam or real-life occurrences). Data will be presented in both raw form and percentage compilation. All results that can be possibly recorded have been recorded, down to the number of materials lost in breaks.
The synth chosen was Tsurara. It consists of an ice crystal congealing 2 distilled water onto 1 rock salt. It caps at level 6 Alchemy. I have level 97 Alchemy (placing me soundly in the 90+ HQ range). I farmed the crystals in Beaucedine Glacier, and crafted in Raimbroy's Grocery. I have also recorded the day and moon phase when I started and when I finished, even though they are unimportant to these results.
==The Control==
The control was done facing North, an independent direction. It began on Lightningsday with a Waning Crescent (17%) Moon. It ended on Firesday, New Moon (5%). This test is meant to set a visible baseline of comparison. When you compare percentages, also consider total tests run, as 2 or 3 points in the denominator or numerator can make a huge looking difference, when there is actually very little.
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Results: 
NQ% = 53.17% (126/237)
HQ% = 43.46% (103/237)
Break (Total %) = 3.38% (8/237)
HQ1%(Of Total) = 29.11% (69/237)
HQ2%(Of Total) = 11.81% (28/237)
HQ3%(Of Total) = 2.53% (6/237)
Break (No Loss % of Total Synths) = 0.84% (2/237)
Break (One Loss % of Total Synths) = 0.84% (2/237)
Break (Two Loss % of Total Synths) = 1.27% (3/237)
Break (All Loss % of Total Synths) = 0.42% (1/237)
==Ideal HQ Direction==
Testing was done facing Northwest, a direction derived from the featured Crafting Compass hosted on this site. It began on Iceday, Waning Gibbous (67%). It ended on Darksday, Last Quarter Moon (60%). This direction is supposed to increase HQ rate noticeably, while also reducing overall success rate by encouraging more breaks (also meant to have a noticeable effect). The effect on skill-ups cannot be determined from this test. 
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Results: 
NQ% = 50.83% (122/240) 
HQ% = 45.42% (109/240) 
Breaks = 3.75% (9/240) 
HQ1% = 34.17% (82/240) 
HQ2% = 7.5% (18/240) 
HQ3% = 3.75% (9/240) 
Break (No Loss % of Total Synths) = 0.42% (1/240) 
Break (One Loss % of Total Synths) = 2.08% (5/240) 
Break (Two Loss % of Total Synths) = 0.84% (2/240) 
Break (All Loss % of Total Synths) = 0.42% (1/240) 
==Success-Oriented==
This was done facing East, a direction derived from the crafting compass hosted on this website. It began on Iceday under a Waning Crescent (19%), and ended on Darksday under a Waning Crescent (10%). This direction is supposed to noticeably increase success rate, while noticeably decreasing high-quality and break rates. The effect on skill-ups cannot be determined from this test.
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Results: 
NQ% = 49.58% (119/240) 
HQ% = 45.42% (109/240) 
Break% = 5% (12/240) 
HQ1% (Of Total) = 36.25% (87/240) 
HQ2% (Of Total) = 6.25% (15/240) 
HQ3% (Of Total) = 2.92% (7/240) 
Break (All Loss % of Total) = 0.42% (1/240) 
Break (Two Loss % of Total) = 2.08% (5/240) 
Break (One Loss % of Total) = 1.67% (4/240) 
Break (No Loss % of Total) = 0.84% (2/240) 
=Skilling Up=
This section may or may not be added. This placeholder is for the eventuality that I do test it. The results will not be Alchemy-related, most likely Bonecraft. I will also eliminate the control, as it is entirely possible every recipe is different and it will be impossible to test enough results with a single recipe. The only thing that would be possible is a direct comparison. Hopefully it will have pertinent results.