2024 United States House of Representatives Elections (Dark Brandon)

This prediction series started in May 2023. Any change in predictions will show date of update. I will try and avoid making changes even if they turn out to be wrong, for the sake of seeing how well I predict the future. Hopefully I do well! Please feel free to comment on your thoughts of how accurate these predictions are, whether you're a Democrat or Republican. Hearing and interacting with other people's opinions makes me happy!
The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 5, 2024, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states to the 117th United States Congress, as well as six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories. Special house elections were also held on various dates throughout 2024. The elections were held concurrently with the 2024 Senate elections and the 2024 presidential election.
In the 2022 United States House of Representatives elections, the Republicans had narrowly retaken the House with 222 seats. After New York Congressman George Santos' conviction of multiple felony charges and his expulsion from the House, a special election was held in early 2024, which was won by the Democrats, making the partisan makeup 221-214. All other special elections between the 2022 and 2024 election resulted in no gains or losses for either party. In late 2023, Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted by the House Republican caucus after his failure to force major concessions from President Biden in regard to the budget and the debt ceiling. Republicans were unable to select a new Speaker, opting to make Mike Johnson the permanent Speaker of the House, a status which continued until the end of the 118th congress. 
Democrats, led by Vice President Harris' coattails in her defeating Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, gained 18 seats to retake control of the House of Representatives. On January 3, House Democrats elected Hakeem Jeffries, who had served as leader of the House Democratic caucus since 2023, as Speaker of the House, making him the first black Speaker in American history.
The 5.5% popular vote advantage by the Democrats was the largest by either party in a presidential election year since 2008. Turnout increased dramatically due to the concurrent presidential election. The presidential election, 2024 Senate elections, and 2024 state gubernatorial elections, as well as many other state and local elections, occurred on the same date. This was the first time since 1952 that partisan control of the House of Representatives had changed hands during a presidential election year. This was the last election of the House of Representatives that did not include the states of the District of Columbia (officially the Douglass Commonwealth) and Puerto Rico, which were both admitted to the union in 2025. This was also the last election until the 2032 elections that 435 members of the House were elected; from 2026 to 2030, the total number of seats was 440.
The 2024 elections were also the last series of House elections before the passage of the For the People Act, which banned partisan gerrymandering by establishing mandatory bipartisan independent redistricting boards for every state (except for those in at-large states), and a series of courts for litigation of congressional maps. After 2024, numerous states' maps were struck down and redrawn by independent, bipartisan commissions for the 2026 midterm elections. 
== Results summary and analysis ==
=== Federal ===
The Democratic Party won control of the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections. The Democrats gained a net total of 15 seats from the total number of seats they had won in the 2022 elections, and a net gain of 14 seats from the number of seats they held on election day. This was their first net gain of House seats since their victory in the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats won the popular vote by more than 8.7 million votes, or 5.3%.
Defensive gerrymanders undertaken by both parties after the 2020 census reduced the number of competitive districts. In addition, some mid-decade changes in congressional maps had an effect on the partisan makeup of state delegations. Between the 2022 and 2024 election, three states underwent mid-decade redistricting:
In Alabama, the United States Supreme Court struck down the state's map as an illegal racial gerrymander under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. A second majority-black district was drawn, and was won by a Democrat, making the state delegation 5R, 2D.
In Georgia, the state's map was struck down as an illegal racial gerrymander using the Supreme Court's ruling in Allen v. Milligan to create a third majority-black district in the Atlanta area. Democrats picked up the new seat, making the state delegation 8R, 6D.
In Louisiana, the state's map was struck down as an illegal racial gerrymander using the Supreme Court's ruling in Allen v. Milligan to create a second majority-black district in the northeast part of the state. Democrats picked up the new seat, making the state delegation 4R, 2D.
In New York, the state supreme court ordered the 15D, 11R maps redrawn. Democrats gained 5 seats in New York, not including their gain of George Santos' seat in a special election, making the state delegation 21D, 5R.
In North Carolina, the state supreme court, having recently been retaken by a conservative majority, ordered the 7-7 map to be redrawn. The new map gave Republicans 10 safe seats, Democrats 3 safe seats, and one Democratic-leaning seat. Republicans gained 3 seats in North Carolina, making the state delegation 10R, 4D.
In South Carolina, the state's 1st congressional district was struck down as a racial gerrymander, and was redrawn to include more black residents. Democrats won the newly drawn seat, making the state's delegation 5R, 2D.
In Wisconsin, the state supreme court, having recently been retaken by a liberal 4-3 majority, ordered the 6-2 Republican-drawn map struck down. The new map gave Republicans 3 safe seats, one Republican-leaning seat, Democrats 2 safe seats, one Democratic-leaning seat, and one highly competitive district. Democrats gained 2 seats in Wisconsin, making the state delegation split 4-4.
State 	Total
seats	Democratic	Democratic	Republican	Republican
State 	Total
seats	Seats 	Change 	Seats 	Change
Alabama 	7 	2 	1 	5 	1
Alaska 	1 	1 	 	0 	
Arizona 	9 	5 	2 	4 	2
Arkansas 	4 	0 	 	4 	
California 	52 	44 	4 	8 	4
Colorado 	8 	5 	 	3 	
Connecticut 	5 	5 	 	0 	
Delaware 	1 	1 	 	0 	
Florida 	28 	8 	 	20 	
Georgia 	14 	6 	1 	8 	1
Hawaii 	2 	2 	 	0 	
Idaho 	2 	0 	 	2 	
Illinois 	17 	14 	 	3 	
Indiana 	9 	2 	 	7 	
Iowa 	4 	0 	 	4 	
Kansas 	4 	1 	 	3 	
Kentucky 	6 	1 	 	5 	
Louisiana 	6 	2 	1 	4 	1
Maine 	2 	2 	 	0 	
Maryland 	8 	7 	 	1 	
Massachusetts 	9 	9 	 	0 	
Michigan 	13 	8 	1 	5 	1
Minnesota 	8 	4 	 	4 	
Mississippi 	4 	1 	 	3 	
Missouri 	8 	2 	 	6 	
Montana 	2 	0 	 	2 	
Nebraska 	3 	1 	1 	2 	1
Nevada 	4 	3 	 	1 	
New Hampshire 	2 	2 	 	0 	
New Jersey 	12 	10 	1 	2 	1
New Mexico 	3 	3 	 	0 	
New York 	26 	21 	5 	5 	5
North Carolina	14 	4 	3 	10 	3
North Dakota 	1 	0 	 	1 	
Ohio 	15 	5 	 	10 	
Oklahoma 	5 	0 	 	5 	
Oregon 	6 	5 	1 	1 	1
Pennsylvania 	17 	9 	 	8 	
Rhode Island 	2 	2 	 	0 	
South Carolina	7 	2 	1 	5 	1
South Dakota 	1 	0 	 	1 	
Tennessee 	9 	1 	 	8 	
Texas 	38 	13 	 	25 	
Utah 	4 	0 	 	4 	
Vermont 	1 	1 	 	0 	
Virginia 	11 	7 	1 	4 	1
Washington 	10 	7 	1 	3 	1
West Virginia 	2 	0 	 	2 	
Wisconsin 	8 	4 	2 	4 	2
Wyoming 	1 	0 	 	1 	
Total 	435	232 	18 	203 	18
=== Maps ===
File:119th by state hypothet.svg|House seats by party holding plurality in state
File:2024hypthoteticalchanges.svg|Net changes to U.S. House seats after the 2024 elections
File:2024housebystate.svg|Popular vote by states
== Seats that changed parties ==
=== Democratic seats won by Republicans ===
Four Democratic seats flipped to the Republicans.
# North Carolina 1 - Previously held by Don Davis
# North Carolina 13 - Previously held by Wiley Nickel
# North Carolina 14 - Previously held by Jeff Jackson
# Washington 3rd - Previously held by Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
=== Republican seats won by Democrats ===
Twenty-two Republican seats flipped to the Democrats.
# Alabama 2nd - Previously held by Barry Moore
# Arizona 1st - Previously held by David Schweikert
# Arizona 6th - Previously held by Juan Ciscomani
# California 3rd - Previously held by Kevin Kiley
# California 13th - Previously held by John Duarte
# California 22nd - Previously held by David Valadao
# California 27th - Previously held by Mike Garcia
# Georgia 6th - Previously held by Rich McCormick
# Louisiana 5th - Previously held by Julia Letlow
# Michigan 10th - Previously held by John James
# Nebraska 2nd - Previously held by Don Bacon
# New Jersey 7th - Previously held by Thomas Kean Jr.
# New York 4th - Previously held by Anthony D'Esposito
# New York 17th - Previously held by Mike Lawler
# New York 19th - Previously held by Marc Molinaro
# New York 22nd - Previously held by Brandon Williams
# New York 24th - Previously held by Claudia Tenney
# Oregon 5th - Previously held by Lori Chavez-DeRemer
# South Carolina 1st - Previously held by Nancy Mace
# Virginia 2nd - Previously held by Jen Kiggans
# Wisconsin 1st - Previously held by Bryan Steil
# Wisconsin 3rd - Previously held by Derrick Van Orden
=== Special Elections Held Prior to the 2024 election that resulted in a change of party ===
# New York 3rd - Previously held by George Santos. Won by the Democrats.
== List of Updates: ==
October 16, 2023: I cannot believe this is really happening, but it now appears that Jim Jordan will be Speaker of the House tomorrow or Wednesday if there are multiple ballots. Back in May, I did correctly predict that Kevin McCarthy would be ousted at around October. I was wrong, however, about Steve Scalise being unable to win. I thought he could win the speakership if McCarthy was ousted. I was clearly wrong.
October 18, 2023: Damn. I thought the moderate Republicans would fold. Okay, it now appears that the only path out of this for the GOP is to make McHenry the interim House Speaker. I doubt they will ever be able to pick a full-fledged Speaker for the rest of this Congress 
Category:Elections
Category:Politics
Category:2024
Category:Future Elections
Category:Dark Brandon