Dresden Federal Election, 2068

== Overview ==
The 2068 Dresden Federal Election was the sixth federal general election conducted after the Second Constitution was adopted.
The election saw the incumbent Culik government led by Prime Minister Evan Gracie lose their majority. Culik lost exactly 20 percentage points of support from the previous election and fell to 82 seats, just 2 ahead of the newly formed United Democratic Party. After one full week of negotiations, Culik was able to form a coalition with the States' Independence Party on the agreement that there would be a 
After riding a high wave into a third term majority government, controlling 61% of seats in Parliament, Prime Minister Evan Gracie began to usher in a laundry list of right-wing policy. Among which was the removal of any federal gun legislation. In 2063, 45 people were killed in a mass public shooting in Verano, Kent. The Prime Minister placed blame on the Kent state government while most placed blame on the Culik federal government and Gracie himself. 
The economy did not dip and immigration to the island nation continued, but many felt that the country had entered a state of malaise. Approval for the Prime Minister fell to a record low of 29% in December of 2063. The center and left wing opposition had already coalesced into the United Democratic Party (UDP) and the party was reaching the 50% in the polls. The Prime Minister resisted calls to step down as party leader and called for a renegotiation of states' rights. This was seen as making steps to repair the damage done over the response to the shooting. A divided party narrowly reinstalled a federal gun law, which increased support for the Prime Minister and the party. 
Eight years into the current Parliament, with polls showing Culik slightly behind, Prime Minister Evan Gracie dropped the writ on April 10th and announced the election date of May 31, 2065. 
== The Campaign ==
The campaign officially began on April 20, 2065. Parties had been anticipating an election for several years, which left parties well funded and capable of competing in the election. 
The parties that competed in the election were: 
* Culik (center-right) 
* Leftist Union (center-left) 
* Democratic Party (center) 
* States' Independence Party (right-wing regional soverigntists) 
* Dominonist Party (far-right Christian theocrats) 
=== The Conventions ===
=== Culik ===
At the Culik Party Convention, Prime Minister Evan Gracie was opposed by MP Jason Marois of Boré and three other token opposition candidates. He won with 60% of the vote on the first round with Marois winning 23%. In the IRV count, which wasn't announced until later, Gracie defeated Marois head to head by a margin of 67% fo 33%. He called for the Culik party to unite around their manifesto build momentum going into the election. He urged to public to give him and his party one more chance to keep the nation "unique, growing, and prosperous." 
Candidate 	Current Position 	Vote	% 	IRV	IRV %
Evan Gracie 	Prime Minister 	546 	59.6%	622	67.4%
Jason Marois 	MP of Boré 	214 	23.4%	301	32.6%
Penelope Bates	Mayor of Tom Canyon, Atlanta	103 	11.2%	 	
Jeff Rollins 	Namco MLA from Baun-Glasgow 	34 	3.7% 	 	
Marlene Diego 	MP of Emperia 	19 	2.1% 	 	
 
=== United Democratic Party ===
Candidates for Party Leader 
* Sylvia Nihal, Opposition Leader and Incumbent- never announced but was always known to stand. 
* Vince "Vinnie" Hartkeel, Governor of Darlington- announced December 21, 2063 
* Seamus Leverne, Shadow Foreign Minister- announced January 14, 2064 
* Tom Hardwall, MP of Emperia- announced August 15, 2064 
* John Robinson, Mayor of Baunsington, Emp.- announced January 4, 2065 
* Edna Carswell, Lieutenant Governor of Metropolan- announced April 10, 2065 
* Georgia McVey, Mayor of Pleasant Hills, Tan.- announced April 12, 2065 
Candidate 	Current Position 	Vote	% 	IRV	IRV%
Vinnie Hartkeel	Governor of Darlington 	305 	26.5%	592	57.8%
Sylvia Nihal 	Opp. Leader/ Incumbent 	243 	21.1%	 	
Seamus Leverne 	Shadow Foreign Minister 	215 	18.7%	432	42.2%
Georgia McVey 	Mayor of Pleasant Hills, Tan.	143 	12.4%	 	
John Robinson 	Mayor of Baunsington, Emp. 	122 	10.6%	 	
Edna Carswell 	Lt. Governor of Metropolan 	98 	8.5% 	 	
Tom Hardwall 	MP of Emperia 	26 	2.3% 	 	
Several candidates had pre-announced up to two years in advance that they would seek the UDP leadership at the convention. The first day of the convention had the members present vote for their leader. In order to be present, candidates must have been selected as delegates during the UDP primary elections on April 20th. Of the 1,100 delegates selected, 1,024 arrived to vote at the convention. Delegates heard speeches from all candidates running for the leadership and then voted on a paper ballot using the Instant Runoff Voting method. The first round results were announced in which Vinnie Hartkeel topped the poll with 27% and Opposition Leader Sylvia Nihal in second place at 21%. Two hours later, the IRV results were announced in which Nihal had been eliminated according to the preference counts and Hartkeel won 57.8% of final preference votes and Shadow Foreign Minister Seamus Leverne won 42.2% of final preference votes. 
=== The Final Weeks ===
After the conventions, held between April 23rd and April 30th, each party had their leader to become Prime Minister. The UDP's lead over Culik began to shrink as Evan Gracie took his party's campaign into high gear. The two smaller parties, the SIP and the Dominionist Party both ran campaigns hoping to capitalize on disaffected Culik voters. The UDP had been effectively running a campaign against Culik for the previous three years.
The first leaders debate was held in New Scotland Hall in New Scotland, Emperia on May 6th. All four party leaders attended. Evan Gracie had been known worldwide as an expert debater and eloquent speaker, and despite his previous unpopularity, he was able to win the debate according to most polls. The new leader of the Domionist Party, Will Cincinnatti, also did fairly well in an attempt to make the case for Christians to support his party. Vinnie Hartkeel fell flat when Gracie attempted to compare him to his troublemaking dad. 
The second debate was held in duPonttown, Darlington on May 18th between Evan Gracie and Vinnie Hartkeel. The debate was viewed as an ultimate one-on-one matchup between the two men who could be Prime Minister after the election. Hartkeel was viewed to have bested Gracie in the debate.
The UDP was leading in the polls for most of the election, but Gracie's debate win in the first debate nudged Culik into a small lead in the final two weeks. Hartkeel's strong debate performance in the second debate caused Culik's lead to slip and the UDP began topping the poll. The final poll the day before the election indicated a 1% lead for the UDP over Culik. However, Culik ended up beating the UDP on election day by 1 point.
== Opinion Polls ==
Opinion polls for the Dresden Federal Election, 2065
Date(s)administered 	Culik	UDP	SIP	Dominonist
ACTUAL RESULT 	41% 	40%	11%	8%
EXIT POLL 	41% 	39%	13%	7%
May 30, 2065 	39% 	40%	12%	9%
May 28, 2065 	38% 	42%	10%	10%
May 26, 2065 	37% 	43%	11%	9%
May 24, 2065 	41% 	40%	12%	7%
May 22, 2065 	39% 	42%	11%	8%
May 20, 2065 	40% 	40%	14%	6%
May 18, 2065 	40% 	41%	14%	5%
May 16, 2065 	42% 	40%	13%	5%
May 14, 2065 	43% 	39%	15%	3%
May 12, 2065 	42% 	40%	15%	3%
May 10, 2065 	41% 	43%	13%	3%
May 8, 2065 	40% 	41%	13%	6%
May 6, 2065 	42% 	43%	12%	3%
May 4, 2065 	41% 	43%	13%	3%
May 2, 2065 	39% 	45%	12%	4%
April 30, 2065 	37% 	46%	12%	5%
April 25, 2065 	38% 	48%	12%	2%
April 20, 2065 	37% 	51%	10%	2%
April 13, 2065 	38% 	46%	13%	3%
March 23, 2065 	40% 	44%	12%	4%
February 16, 2065 	39% 	46%	14%	1%
January 15, 2065 	35% 	51%	12%	2%
Average of Polls 2064	31% 	51%	15%	2%
Average of Polls 2063	28% 	54%	15%	3%
Average of Polls 2062	32% 	52%	13%	3%
== Results ==
2065 Dresden Federal Election
Party 	Leader 	Leader's Seat 	Seats Won	Seats +/-	Percent	Vote 	Percent +/-
Culik 	Evan Gracie 	Zimmermann, Namco 	82 	40 	41.3% 	15,544,562	20.0%
United Democratic Party 	Vinnie Hartkeel	Dachary, Darlington 	80 	24 	39.8% 	14,954,336	12.2%
States' Independence Party	Tom Rittert 	Phinston, Emperia 	22 	8 	10.8% 	4,043,228 	3.7%
Dominionist Party 	Will Cincinnati	Plaquamine Heights, Kent	16 	16 	8.1% 	3,054,338 	4.1%
Total 	 	 	200 	 	 	37,596,464	
== Aftermath ==
On election night, it was clear that Culik would finish ahead of the UDP, but no one had 50% of the vote and 101 seats. Most networks projected that Gracie would remain Prime Minister and the government would likely go into coalition with the SIP. Vinnie Hartkeel conceded the election, indicating no interest in going into a coalition with the SIP and acknowledging coming in 2 seats behind Culik. 
The Domionist Party acknowledged that they were not going to make any deal with any party as all other parties allowed non-Christian members. Culik had a long standing promise to never associate with the Dominionists, even if their government depended on it. The SIP had a laundry list of wishes in order to form a coalition with Culik. 
Prime Minister Evan Gracie announced on June 3rd that he would form a minority government. The new parliament convened on June 7th and as usual started with a confidence vote. The minority Culik government failed the vote 93-107. Several UDP members voted for the Government, hoping to keep the SIP out of government. The Prime Minister weighed his options and immediately announced his intention to start coalition talks with the SIP. The SIP brought up a vote to nullify the previous vote, the only way to keep a new election from being called. It passed 102-98, with 2 Culik members voting against. 
Culik demanded that a referendum be held to change the voting system from proportional representation (PR) to single member district plurality (SMDP) or first past the post (FPTP). They also wanted a referendum to force the Prime Minister to choose his cabinet from outside of Parliament and have Parliament to confirm cabinet members. Culik reluctantly agreed to these demands. Outside of Tom Rittert becoming Deputy Prime Minister, the Prime Minister refused to allow any member of the SIP to join the cabinet. 
The Parliamentary Culik Party approved the coalition 51-31 and the Parliamentary SIP approved the coalition by a vote of 16-5. 
Prime Minister Evan Gracie called the parliament to convene on June 12th and the confidence vote passed with full approval from both government parties. 
The Gracie VI Government: 
* Culik- 82 
* SIP- 22 
Government: 104 
Official Opposition: 80 
Other Opposition: 16
Category:Politics