2028 United States Presidential Election (Dark Brandon)

This prediction series started in May 2023. Any change in predictions will show date of update. I will try and avoid making changes even if they turn out to be wrong, for the sake of seeing how well I predict the future. Hopefully I do well! Please feel free to comment on your thoughts of how accurate these predictions are, whether you're a Democrat or Republican. Hearing and interacting with other people's opinions makes me happy!
PLEASE NOTE: This page is in need of serious repair so forgive me for the unclear GOP nominee at this point in time
The 2028 United States presidential election was the 61st quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. The Democratic ticket of incumbent president Kamala Harris and incumbent vice president Tim Walz defeated the Republican ticket of Louisiana governor Jeff Landry and Nevada governor Joe Lombardo while also defeating former President Donald Trump and his running mate, former general Michael Flynn who ran as a third party ticket for the Patriot Party after Trump failed to receive the Republican nomination. This was the first election in which 52 states participated, marking the first participation of Puerto Rico and the first participation of District of Columbia (officially the Douglass Commonwealth) as a state, rather than under its special inclusion in presidential elections per the 23rd Amendment. This became the only presidential election in American history where the threshold for victory was 273 electoral votes.
The Democratic primaries were marked by an unprecedentedly sharp contest between Whitmer and the frontrunner, President Kamala Harris. While Whitmer held an early lead in most national polls among likely Democratic primary voters, a string of upset victories by Harris in New Hampshire and Nevada propelled her into the lead after Super Tuesday, and she received a narrow majority of delegates. She became the presumptive nominee in June 2028. Harris chose incumbent Vice President Tim Walz as her running mate. This was an unusually intense primary battle for a party with an incumbent President running for reelection. 
Former President Donald Trump, having been imprisoned since early 2025, ran for President a fourth time. However, after suffering a series of stinging defeats to multiple candidates in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, Trump's primary campaign collapsed. With Donald Trump faltering, and many loyal Trump voters feeling leaderless, numerous Republican candidates attempted to ascend in his wake, but no candidate was able to take a commanding lead. The "MAGA vote" representing between 30-40% of the GOP electorate became splintered between over half a dozen different candidates. The Republican primary ended with no candidate receiving a majority of delegates, resulting in a brokered convention, the first occurrence of such an event in the modern era of the presidential primary system, and the first contested convention since 1952. On the 15th ballot, Louisiana governor Jeff Landry emerged victorious with a majority of delegates. Many attributed his victory to the desire of Republican delegates loyal to the party establishment for an "electable" candidate with "a more positive and inclusive vision of conservatism." Landry chose incumbent Nevada governor Joe Lombardo as her running mate.
After Jeff Landry secured the Republican nomination, Donald Trump and his far-right conservative allies declared that the "Republican Party has gone woke," interpreted by many as dog-whistle sexism and racism to criticize the GOP's choice of attempting to embrace the LGBTQ community and women's rights. While many had believed Donald Trump would forgo a run for the Presidency as a third party candidate in exchange for a pardon by Landry, his convictions on multiple state felony charges, and no possibility of pardons from New York or the Georgia Board of Pardons made such a promise worthless. Trump became the nominee of the Patriot Party, a far-right political party that he previously vowed to create if he were to not win the Republican nomination in 2024, and campaigned fiercely against both Harris and Landry, attacking the so-called "corrupt uniparty" and the "woke deep state". 
Turnout in this election fell significantly from the previous election, but was still relatively elevated compared to elections in the pre-Trump era, being higher than every election from 1968-2016. Support for minor party candidates also dipped to its lowest percentage since 1984; with three candidates on the ballot, and the two major parties nominating someone other than Biden and Trump, many voters were drawn to choosing one of the three candidates.
The central issues of the campaign included the size and role of the federal government in the economy, with Harris's first-term domestic agenda including the passage of the Affordable Health Care for America Act, which created a public option, under intense controversy; immigration issues were also a major issue, with Republicans in state legislatures across the country sparking backlash against the passage of the Immigration Modernization Act; LGBT rights, including those relating to transgender persons and their access to gender-affirming care; access to abortion, after Harris's power struggle with the Supreme Court over the passage of the Abortion Rights Act in 2025, and Jeff Landry's opposition to nationwide abortion legalization; another issue was the rising tensions with Iran over their development of nuclear warheads and other weapons of mass destruction.
The Republican split enabled President Harris to win 39 states and a landslide victory in Electoral College with just 49.8% of the vote, the lowest percentage of the vote for a successful Democratic presidential nominee since Bill Clinton in 1996. Whitmer ultimately received the majority in the Electoral College with 473 electoral votes, while Haley received 57, and Donald Trump received 13, making it the most lopsided electoral college landslide since Ronald Reagan's re-election in 1984. Harris won the popular vote by approximately 17.8%, only 0.4% behind Ronald Reagan's 18.2% victory in 1984, which translated to a margin of roughly 27 million raw votes, the largest raw vote margin in history. Whitmer's victory was the largest for any Democrat in both the electoral college and the popular vote since President Johnson's re-election in 1964. She won every state she carried in 2024, and carried every state won by Obama in 2008 (with the exception of Maine's 2nd congressional district, mainly due to Maine's use of ranked-choice ranking), including the states of Indiana, Ohio, Iowa, and Florida, as well as a number of states not won by a Democrat for generations, including Missouri and Louisiana for the first time since 1996, Montana for the first time since 1992, Mississippi and South Carolina for the first time since 1976, and Kansas for the first time since 1964. 
Donald Trump emerged with a plurality of votes in two states: Alabama and West Virginia, making this election the first time since George Wallace's victories in the Deep South during the 1968 election that a third party candidate managed to win electoral votes. However, Donald Trump's performance in the popular vote was not as strong as Ross Perot's 18.9% of the vote in 1992. Tim Scott suffered the worst defeat for a Republican in the popular vote and the electoral college since Barry Goldwater's landslide loss to President Johnson in 1964. Haley was able to salvage two symbolic victories in Alaska and Maine's 2nd congressional district, in which Harris finished ahead of Landry with a plurality, but Landry won after the vast majority of votes for Trump, who came in third place, were transferred to Haley through those states' ranked-choice voting system. 
==Background==
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties in the United States. Each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. Primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention (except for the Libertarian Party, which nominates its vice-presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the presidential nominee's preference). The general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president. 
Since 1964, the electoral college had consisted of 538 members, which was derived from the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 100 senators, and 3 seats for the District of Columbia under the 23rd amendment. However, in 2025, Congress passed two bills granting statehood to the District of Columbia (officially the Douglass Commonwealth), as well as Puerto Rico. Shortly after, Congress passed the 28th amendment, a conditional repeal of the 23rd amendment. While the District of Columbia's addition to the Union did not change the number of electors from 538, as it was already included in the electoral college, Puerto Rico was apportioned 2 senators, and 4 representatives, without taking away from other states' House delegations, making the total number of electors 544, and the threshold to win 273. 
If no candidate receives the minimum 273 electoral votes needed to win the election, the United States House of Representatives will select the president from among the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the United States Senate will select the vice president from among the candidates who received the two highest totals. 
Two states used ranked-choice voting (RCV) in the 2028 election, those states being Maine and Alaska. Kamala Harris won three out of the four electoral votes of state of Maine with an outright majority of votes, and Greg Abbott won Alaska and Maine's 2nd congressional district with a majority of votes. On December 18, 2028, pledged electors for each candidate, known collectively as the United States Electoral College, gathered in their states' capitols to cast their official votes. Pursuant to the processes laid out by the Electoral Count Act of 1887, certificates of ascertainment listing the names of the electors and separate certificates recording their votes are distributed to various officials across the branches of government. 
===Simultaneous Elections===
The presidential election occurred simultaneously with elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Gubernatorial and legislative elections were also held in several states. Democrats retook control of the House of Representatives and kept control of the Senate.
== Nominations ==
===Democratic Party===
Since Joe Biden's first term in office, Kamala Harris had long been the frontrunner in most polls for 2024 among Democratic voters that did not include Joe Biden, and after Harris's successful election, she remained in that position. However, she was never able to achieve a majority of support, opening up the possibility for a successful challenger.
Numerous center-left Democrats entered the race for President, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was the only significant member of the more left-wing part of the Democratic Party to enter the race for President. With the specter of Donald Trump in the race for President for a fourth time, Democratic voters were once again keenly focused on "electability." While she remained popular among most Democratic voters, boosting Harris' chances, she did not have the unifying effect that she had in 2024 when President Biden dropped, she was viewed by many as unappealing to the necessary swing voters in the Midwest. 
Whitmer ignored the first state, South Carolina, as it was obvious that Kamala would win a state where a majority of Democratic primary voters are black. She campaigned heavily in New Hampshire, but Harris maintained a heavy lead, and Nevada, where her popularity with culinary unions was only matched by Kamala Harris, having been chiefly responsible for the repeal of Michigan's right-to-work law. Harris won the South Carolina primary with her overwhelming support with black voters, but Whitmer finished in a strong second place, boosting her momentum. Harris barely won in Nevada, New Hampshire, and fell short against her opponent in Michigan. The President went campaigning across the nation, particularly in Florida.
On Super Tuesday, despite many voters voting in high numbers for Whitmer, Harris took the lead over Whitmer in delegates, and won the critical state of Texas. After Super Tuesday, Ocasio-Cortez officially dropped out of the race, leaving only Harris and Whitmer. The President rode to victory in numerous states outside the south in the weeks just after Super Tuesday, most significantly in Florida. After Harris's defeat of Whitmer in the Wisconsin primary, she became the presumptive nominee.
====Primary Schedule====
Harris re-nominated Vice President Tim Walz as her running mate. They were both nominated at the Democratic National Convention in August 2028.
Candidate 	Candidate	Most recent position 	State 	Campaign announced	Pledged delegates	Popular vote	Contests won	Running mate
President Harris	 	President of the United States(2025-Present)	California	March 2027 	2,170 	TBD,(48.1%) 	51 	Tim Walz
===Withdrew during the primaries===
Candidate 	Candidate 	Most recent position 	State 	Campaign announced	Campaign suspended	Delegates won	Popular vote	Contests won
Gretchen Whitmer 	 	Governor of Michigan(2019-2027) 	Michigan 	April 2027 	April 25, 2028
(endorsed Harris as presumptive nominee)	1,219 	,(33.2%) 	6
AlexandriaOcasio-Cortez	 	U.S. Representative from New York's 14th District(2019-) 	New York 	May 2027 	March 13, 2028
(endorsed Whitmer as presumptive nominee)	0 	 	1
Wes Moore 	 	Governor of Maryland(2023-2029) 	
 Maryland 	March 2027 	February 26, 2028
(endorsed Harris)	0 	 	0
Gavin Newsom 	 	Governor of California(2019-2027) 	California 	April 2027 	February 26, 2028
(endorsed Harris)	0 	 	0
Josh Shapiro 	Governor of Pennsylvania(2023-2031) 	Governor of Pennsylvania(2023-2031) 	Pennsylvania	April 2027 	Early February 2028
(endorsed Harris)	0 	 	0
Cory Booker 	U.S. Senator from New Jersey(2013-) 	U.S. Senator from New Jersey(2013-) 	New Jersey 	February 2027 	Early February 2028
(endorsed Harris)	0 	 	0
Jared Polis 	Governor of Colorado(2019-2027) 	Governor of Colorado(2019-2027) 	Colorado 	February 2027 	Early February 2028
(endorsed Whitmer)	0 	 	0
Pete Buttigeg 	U.S. Secretary of Transportation(2021-2025) 	U.S. Secretary of Transportation(2021-2025) 	Michigan 	February 2027 	Early February 2028
(endorsed Harris)	 	 	0
Amy Klobuchar 	U.S. Senator from Minnesota(2007-) 	U.S. Senator from Minnesota(2007-) 	Minnesota 	March 2027 	Early February 2028
(endorsed Whitmer, then Harris as presumptive nominee)	 	 	0
Nina Turner 	Member of the Ohio Senate from the 25th district (2008-2014)	Member of the Ohio Senate from the 25th district (2008-2014)	Ohio 	March 2027 	Early February 2028
(endorsed Ocasio-Cortez, then Harris as presumptive nominee)	 	 	0
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Kamala Harris 	Tim Walz 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	
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47th President of the United States
(2025-2028)	50th Vice President of the United States
(2025–2028)	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	
===Republican Party===
In the aftermath of Donald Trump's second consecutive loss in the 2024 election, and his subsequent imprisonment for multiple felony offenses, it was believed by many that Trump's political career had ended. While Trump was prosecuted and charged for falsifying business records, taking classified documents, and for election interference in Georgia, he was never prosecuted for charges of sedition and insurrection, preventing a legal ban from his running for public office again under the 14th amendment. Shortly after the 2026 midterm elections, which resulted in another significant underperformance by the Republican Party, Trump entered the presidential race for the fourth time in a row. 
During the lead-up to the 2024 GOP primary, Donald Trump consistently led in nearly all public polls of Republican voters, but in the 2028 race, his polling fell drastically. While many GOP voters still reported favorable opinions of Trump himself, many were weary of losing a third presidential election in a row.
In 2026, Kamala Harris and congressional democrats' successfully passed the Immigration Modernization Act, the most significant immigration reform since the 1960s that allowed a full path to amnesty and citizenship for most immigrants at the southern border. The bill resulted in an eruption of backlash from conservatives, and Jeff Landry made a name for himself with his large rallies with Greg Abbott in Texas in opposition to this, as immigrants flooded into Louisiana.
By 2027, Jeff Landry had taken a small, but commanding lead in most polling, with roughly 40% support, and Donald Trump at 30%. While Vivek Ramaswamy, a candidate in the 2024 election, remained popular, his ideological overlap with Donald Trump kept his polling tampered down. 
Landry remained the most well-funded candidate in the election, but pursued a more localized campaign strategy. Most Republican strategists believed that if Donald Trump were to lose in just the first two states of Iowa and New Hampshire, his aura of being supposedly unbeatable would collapse, and he would be the "Emperor Without Clothes" as one Jeff Landry surrogate noted. With Landry already popular among evangelicals for his hard line on abortion and transgender persons, Landry invested in ground-game operations in the state of Iowa, but did not campaign there himself nearly as much as other candidates. Landry instead went to New Hampshire and "camped out," traveling to nearly every small town and engaging with voters on a retail basis.
Landry defeated Donald Trump in Iowa by a margin of 45% to 30%, and one week later, defeated Trump in New Hampshire by a narrow 40% to 36%. With Trump's campaign collapsing, Vivek Ramaswamy, who had all but dropped out of the race, re-entered in Nevada, and finished 2nd behind Trump. Tim Scott, having also resurged in the wake of Trump's collapse, won his home state of South Carolina. Vivek Ramaswamy won his first primary in the early state of Michigan. By Super Tuesday, all other minor candidates, such as former Florida governor Ron DeSantis and former South Dakota governor Kristi Noem, dropped out of the race. While Donald Trump remained on the ballot in the Super Tuesday states, he only polled between 15-20% in most states. Jeff Landry won nearly every delegate-rich state on Super Tuesday, with Ramaswamy winning in more northerly states. By late April, Landry became the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party.
Landry selected Nevada governor Joe Lombardo as his running mate. They were officially nominated at the Republican National Convention in July 2028.
2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket	2028 Republican Party ticket
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	
for President 	for Vice President 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	
United States Senator from South Carolina
(2013–2028)	Governor of Nevada
(2023–) 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	
==General Election==
===Issues===
====Role of the Federal Government====
Early into Kamala Harris's first term term and in the last few weeks of the Biden administration, Democrats were able to break the legislative filibuster in the Senate with 51 votes, opening up the possibility of passing the most vexing and ambitious parts of Kamala Harris's agenda that had previously been unable to pass with a 60-vote threshold. Most of the legislation passed by the Democrats in 2025 that did not involve any changes in taxes or spending was widely popular in public opinion polls, such as bills relating to voting rights, election law, gun control, and abortion. However, with bills that involved new taxes or spending, the public was closely divided. 
Kamala Harris's three most important landmark pieces of domestic economic policy legislation in his second term were the American Families Investment Reconciliation Act of 2026 (which was nearly a copycat of the previously failed Build Back Better Act) the Affordable Health Care for America Act, also known as HarrisCare, which lowered the Medicare age to 60 and established a government-funded Medicare-equivalent healthcare insurance option for all Americans, and the Social Security Fairness Act, which eliminated the income cap on Social Security taxes. While they remained popular with a narrow majority of Americans, they were funded by the most significant increases in taxes, mostly on the wealthy, since the Johnson administration. It created a major backlash amongst large sections of the American public who disliked increases in the size of the federal government. 
While inflation remained near the historical mean during President Harris's first term term, thwarting a popular Republican attack on government spending, the most salient issue of the 2028 campaign was still of spending and the federal government's role in American life. 
Landry campaigned on a message of reining in "reckless, out of control tax-and-spend liberals." He promised to repeal Kamala Harris's domestic agenda, cut spending on entitlements and discretionary spending through the privatization of multiple government programs, and send money to states through a series of block grants to fund healthcare and other services. 
Whitmer, on the other hand, campaigned on the success and narrow popularity of HarrisCare, and promised to improve the programs by making them more cost-efficient and responsive. In order to stand out in the Democratic primary, she also proposed the negative income tax, which would provide a de facto guaranteed universal basic income for all people below a certain threshold. She campaigned heavily on that promise in the general election, too, bringing in the support of many low-income voters. Harrisralso focused her economic message on voters' optimism about the state of the economy. She touted her agenda as POTUS, having passed landmark legislation to improve infrastructure in her country.
====Immigration====
In Harris's first term, the Democratic controlled Congress was able to pass the Immigration Modernization Act after the repeal of the Senate filibuster. The law included a pathway for over 15 million immigrants to gain a pathway to amnesty and citizenship within the United States. While the bill included many Republican amendments, such as enhanced border security, immigration courts, labor restrictions, and drug enforcement, it created a major backlash within conservative parts of America.
Jeff Landry was known across his state for his hardline stance on preventing illegal immigration and securing the border.
Harris, on the other hand, voiced her support for the Immigration Modernization Act, and campaigned on proposals to tweak the Department of Homeland Security, and various provisions of the act to be executed more efficiently. She criticized Abbott for "dehumanization" of immigrants from Central America, and called on Congress to craft policy that would help Central America proper, so that people in those countries would not be desperate to travel to America. She supported reforming her policies on immigration, saying "we will work and work until it's as perfect as we can get it."
====Abortion====
Following the Supreme Court's 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, abortion remained a top issue for Americans throughout the 2020s in every election cycle, both in midterm elections and in presidential elections. In 2025, Congress passed the Abortion Rights Act, after the repeal of the legislative filibuster, and it was signed by President Harris. However, in early 2026, the law was struck down by the Supreme Court through an initial injunction order. Harris and congressional Democrats began threatening to expand the court if the court ruled against the law, which, in the words of Harris, be a "direct assault on the American people and their democratic power to elect their representatives to change the laws they want to be changed." In a shocking decision, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in Texas v. Jones, with Justice Roberts and Justice Kavanaugh writing a joint opinion and joining the three liberals, that Congress has the power to prevent states from banning abortion, but also ruled that Congress has the power to fully ban all abortions throughout the 52 states and territories, even if a state's own laws protect it. The ruling also stated that states could still implement their own restrictions and barriers to abortion.
While abortion became legal permanently throughout the 52 states after the summer of 2026, it still remained a top issue for voters in the midterm election and the 2028 election. Jeff Landry, Governor of Lousiana, had been a supporter of abortion bans. By 2028, it was clear to nearly all Republicans that conservatives' stance on the issue of abortion was resulting in major electoral failures, having lost the presidency and both Houses of Congress in 2024, and failing to win either chamber back in the 2026 midterm elections. Jeff Landry attempted to soften his stance on abortion, attacking liberals for "extorting" the court, but avoiding any reference to a full national ban on abortion. In most public messaging, he stuck to a message that he would appoint more Supreme Court justices that would "follow the Constitution as written, and this will sort the abortion issue out for itself."
President Harris, on the other hand, campaigned on a platform of staunch support of for the right to abortion. As the Vice President and then President, she had continuously campaigned for the right to "Reproductive Freedom" including the right to abortion through viability. She also signed a bill passed by the Democratic-controlled Michigan legislature that repealed Michigan's 1931 law that banned abortions. She promised to veto any law passed by a future Congress that repealed the Abortion Rights Act, and promised to continue federal funding of abortions. She also reflected on her Supreme Court justices that have overturn the Dobbs decision. In her nomination acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention, she said that "I have nominated Supreme Court justices that uphold our Constitution, but our Constitution is a living document, a document that grows stronger over time, a document that has given men and women across America more rights. It is a sacred document that promises that we, the people, will continue to grow America into that more perfect union, and yes, the right to reproductive freedom is a part of that more perfect union."
====Foreign Policy====
While domestic policy remained the cornerstone of the 2028 campaign for President, foreign affairs occasionally made its way into the campaign. Two issues were the most salient in 2028: Rising tensions with China and more importantly, Iran's successful development of nuclear weapons in the year 2027. 
Both candidates consistently presented themselves as tough-on-China, and committed to a policy of deterring China's expansion across the globe, especially in East Asia. Jeff Landry touted his agenda as the Governor of Louisiana to counter Chinese influence within the United States, including his state's extreme restrictions on Chinese foreign nationals' ability to acquire land. On the other hand, Harris focused her China policy more on the trade and economics side, touting her agenda as California's governor and President to try to revive the industrial parts of the nation and keep America competitive with China. Polls showed that most voters found China to be an adversary worthy of concern, but neither candidate was favored by any statistically significant margin by voters most concerned about China. 
More concerning for voters in the 2028 election was Iran's completion of their development of nuclear weapons/weapons of mass destruction in the year 2027, which resulted in a destabilization of the Middle East. While Iran did not immediately use their nuclear weapons for any attack or invasions, nor did the number of terrorist attacks against the countries of Saudi Arabia or Israel increase within the first 2 years, it created mass hysteria among most of Iran's neighbors. Different alliances, including those intertwined with Israel and the United States began to come apart as fears of retaliation from the Iranians created a "chilling effect." 
Republicans across the country placed blame on the Biden administration for Iran's development of nuclear weapons on their watch, while Democrats placed blame on Donald Trump for scrapping the Iran Nuclear Deal of 2015, and dislodging the United States from its previous position of strength to negotiate. Republicans had planned on making a nuclear Iran a top issue of the 2028 general election campaign because it was expected that President Harris would be the Democratic Party nominee for reelection. However, with Harris whipping out new waves of negotiations, it became far more difficult for them. 
===Debates===
After the 2024 election between Joe Biden (and then Kamala Harris) and Donald Trump featured few general election debates, for the first time since 1972, the bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates, which had served as the main vehicle for debates since the 1988 election, was disbanded. 
Different news organizations began making bids with the two major parties starting in 2027 for organizing general election debates. The Democratic Party refused any cooperation with the Fox News Channel for a general election debate, and the Republican Party refused any cooperation with MSNBC, and its parent company, MSNBC. 
The Democrats and the Republicans agreed first on two debates, the first hosted by PBS, and the other by ABC. The Democrats refused cooperation with CNN, after complaints over its coverage of Donald Trump in the 2024 election, but agreed to allow CNN to air the debate if the event was officially hosted by a third-party organization. The AARP, the American Association of Retired Persons, offered to host a town hall-style debate with questions mainly coming from senior-citizens on questions relating to Social Security, Medicare, and other programs for elderly people. The Democrats agreed to this proposal in exchange for a second town-hall style debate, also officially hosted by CNN, with questions coming from college students and other young voters. This brought the total number of debates to four, the most ever in a general election. The Vice Presidential debate was agreed to be hosted by CBS, after the negotiations were completed for the presidential debates.
====First Debate====
The first debate was held at Arizona State and moderated by Amna Nawaz of PBS News. Most of the questions were related to domestic policy, with both candidates asked questions about their plans for healthcare in the wake of the passage of the public option in 2026. Landry focused his message mainly on criticisms of President Harris for overspending and increasing the role of the federal government in the economy, and labeling Harris as a "tax and spend" liberal. Harris tied her message to Americans' increasing positivity on the economy, stating how she would be a president who would promote "stability, growth, and fairness." The candidates were also pressed on the issue of abortion, with the President in fierce opposition to any bans on abortion before fetal viability, while Jeff Landry positioned himself as a "compassionate pro-life conservative."
Polls of viewers showed that President Harris was considered a narrow winner of the first debate. Many political commentators took note of the fact that this debate was the first presidential debate that didn't include Donald Trump since 16 years ago, and how it was a "pleasing return to normalcy and civility."
====Second Debate====
The second debate was held in Tampa, FL, and was jointly hosted by CNN and the AARP. It was a town hall style debate, moderated by CNN's Kaitlyn Collins. The questions all came from voters of old age, and mainly focused on candidates' plans for Social Security and Medicare. Kamala Harris mainly focused her message on strengthening Social Security through higher taxes on the wealthy, and decreasing the cost of prescription drugs for seniors including cancer drugs and insulin. Jeff Landry, on the other hand, focused his message on mainly false accusations of the President of wanting to use the healthcare plans for seniors as a piggy-bank for younger Americans healthcare. He also accused Democrats' of defunding Medicare, which was slightly misleading, as Harris had decreased the cost of Medicare by negotiating the cost of drugs, but didn't actually cut any benefits.
Viewers perceived President Harris as slightly "disconnected" from the older voters asking the questions, while Landry seemed more "in touch" with the people asking the questions. Polls showed that a majority of voters thought Landry won the debate.
====Vice Presidential Debate====
The Vice Presidential debate was hosted by CBS and moderated by Margaret Brennan. It featured the first ever debate of either presidential or vice presidential candidates in which neither one was white. Much like the first debate, questions mainly focused around issues of domestic policy, with a few questions about the United States' relationship with Iran and China mixed in. Questions also focused on the candidates' readiness to take office if something were to happen to the President. With the two candidates overshadowed by their running mates at the top of the ticket, it was not considered a consequential matchup.
Vice President Walz was generally shown to have performed better than the Nevada Governor, his folksy attitude and positivity that had endured across his Vice Presidency causing the voters to think good of him. He was also more pragmatic than Lombardo, who often avoided the questions asked.
====Third Debate====
The third debate was also hosted by CNN, and moderated by Van Jones, a former Democratic operative, and S.E. Cupp, a former Republican operative. This debate was also a town-hall style debate, but questions were asked by younger voters, both in and out of college. Many of the questions related to the cost of attending college, and the increasing crisis of home ownership. 
Polls showed the President as the clear winner of the third debate, with many voters saying that Abbott seemed derisive and angry when responding to younger voters, while Harris seemed calmer and more connectable and far more compassionate.
====Fourth Debate====
The fourth debate was hosted by ABC News and moderated by David Muir. It was the only debate focused primarily on foreign policy. Questions mainly focused on the United States' increasing tension with China, but more importantly, Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons. Harris focused on her work as the President to strengthen the manufacturing power of the country to compete with China in new technologies, including electric vehicles and semiconductors. On the other hand, Landry pressed blame on the Harris administration for failing to contain Iran, and not standing alongside Israel. Harris countered, by discussing how Donald Trump's actions in pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, which Landry praised Trump for, were to blame for the crisis.
Polls showed that viewers were evenly split on the winner of the fourth debate. The last debate had no real effect on national polls.
== 13 Keys To the White House ==
The 13 Keys to the White House is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.
The system is a thirteen-point checklist that assesses the situation of the country and political system ahead of a presidential election: when five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the incumbent party nominee is predicted to win the election, but when six or more items on the checklist are false, the challenging party nominee is predicted to defeat the incumbent party nominee in the election.
Some of the items on the checklist involve qualitative judgment, and therefore the reliability of this system relies heavily on the knowledge and analytical skill of whoever attempts to apply it. Using the system, Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcomes of every presidential election since 1984. Here is the result of the 13 Keys in 2016, in which Lichtman correctly predicted that President Harris would win re-election:
# 	Key 	True/False
1 	Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.	True
2 	No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination (nominee gets 2/3rds of delegates on 1st ballot). 	True
3 	Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. 	True
4 	No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. 	False
5 	Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. 	True
6 	Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. 	True
7 	Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. 	True
8 	No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. 	True
9 	No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. 	True
10 	No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. 	True
11 	Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. 	False
12 	Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. 	False
13 	Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. 	True
KAMALA HARRIS PREDICTED TO WIN	KAMALA HARRIS PREDICTED TO WIN 	3 FALSE
===Statistics===
====Close states====
States where the margin of victory was under 1% (26 electoral votes; 1 won by Harris, 12 by Landry, 13 by Trump): 
#West Virginia, 0.04% – 4 electoral votes
#Alabama, 0.09% – 9 electoral votes
#Tennessee, 0.28% – 11 electoral votes
#Maine's 2nd congressional district, 0.59% – 1 electoral vote
#Nebraska's 1st congressional district, 0.86% – 1 electoral vote 
States where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5% (49 electoral votes; 43 won by Harris, 6 by Landry): 
#South Carolina, 1.23% – 9 electoral votes
#South Dakota, 1.94% – 3 electoral votes
#North Dakota, 2.26% – 3 electoral votes
#Mississippi, 2.73% – 6 electoral votes
#Louisiana, 2.95% – 8 electoral votes
#Kansas, 3.6% – 6 electoral votes
#Montana, 3.75% – 4 electoral votes
#Missouri, 4.99% – 10 electoral votes
States/districts where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10% (83 electoral votes; 64 won by Harris, 19 by Landry): 
#Arkansas, 5.25% – 6 electoral vote
#Indiana, 6.15% – 11 electoral vote
#Iowa, 6.32% – 6 electoral votes
#Alaska, 7.11% – 3 electoral votes
#Kentucky, 7.47% – 8 electoral votes
#Nebraska, 8.42% – 2 electoral votes
#Florida, 9.45% – 30 electoral votes
#Ohio, 9.87% - 17 electoral votes
File:Results by state, shaded2028predict.svg|Results by state, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote
File:28elect margins.svg|States shaded by margin of victory
File:2028 Scaledmap.svg|A discontinuous cartogram of the 2028 United States presidential election
File:2028electioncountypredict.svg|Results by county
===Periodical Changes to this prediction with time stamp:===
May 31, 2023 - Changed GOP nominee from Greg Abbott and VP Tim Scott to Tim Scott and VP Joe Lombardo
Category:Elections
Category:2028 Presidential Election
Category:2028
Category:Politics
Category:American politics
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