Enderronian federal election, 2002

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1998 ← 	19 October 2002 	19 October 2002 	→ 2006
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All 150 seats in the Enderronian Parliament76 seats needed for a majority	All 150 seats in the Enderronian Parliament76 seats needed for a majority 	All 150 seats in the Enderronian Parliament76 seats needed for a majority	All 150 seats in the Enderronian Parliament76 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 	15,339,697 (92.87%) ( 0.78pp) 	15,339,697 (92.87%) ( 0.78pp) 	15,339,697 (92.87%) ( 0.78pp)
 	 	 	
 	width="25%" 	width="25%" 	width="25%"
Leader 	Wally Koepke 	Rick Clarkson 	Jack Whitham
Party 	Liberal 	Social Democrats 	National
Leader since 	19 February 2000 	1 December 1997 	29 September 1998
Leader's seat 	Marshall Bay (CO) 	Jackson (WE) 	Kennedy (WS)
Last election 	45 seats, 31.79%Compared to the seat and vote total of the Conservative–Liberal Alliance.	88 seats, 47.09% 	5 seats, 3.13%
Seats won 	70 	69 	9
Seat change 	25 	19 	4
Popular vote 	5,937,997 	6,361,372 	951,061
Percentage 	38.71% 	41.47% 	6.20%
Swing 	6.92pp 	5.62pp 	3.07pp
TPP 	50.87% 	49.13% 	
TPP swing 	5.13pp 	5.13pp 	
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Winning party by electorate 	Winning party by electorate 	Winning party by electorate 	Winning party by electorate
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Prime Minister before election 	Prime Minister before election 	Elected Prime Minister 	Elected Prime Minister
Rick ClarksonSocial Democrats 	Rick ClarksonSocial Democrats 	Wally KoepkeLiberal 	Wally KoepkeLiberal
A federal election was held in Enderron on Saturday 19 October 2002 to elect the 150 members of the 15th Enderronian Parliament.
The result was a hung parliament, the first since 1986. The incumbent third-term Social Democratic Party government, led by Prime Minister Rick Clarkson, suffered a loss of 19 seats and a 5.13 percent swing on two-party-preferred terms against the newly amalgamated Liberal Party of Enderron, led by Wally Koepke and formed by the merger between the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats. The Enderron National Party ended up being the kingmaker, with neither the SDP nor Liberals mathematically being able to govern without the support of the party. After one week of negotiations, the National Party agreed to form a coalition with the Liberal Party, with leader Jack Whitham becoming Deputy Prime Minister. Thus, this election marked the end of the 12-year Vandenberg–Clarkson Social Democratic Government.
In the months leading up to the election, the Social Democrats held a narrow but steady lead in opinion polling, and the election result was expected to be a slim majority government for the party. In the final weeks of the election campaign, the poll results tightened and most analysts predicted a hung parliament, which proved to be the case in the final result. The Liberals managed to edge out a one-seat plurality, winning 70 seats to the Social Democrats' 69. With neither party winning a majority, both turned to the agrarian National Party for negotiations. The Liberals initially refused to serve in a coalition, insisting on leading a minority government with confidence and supply from the Nationals, but relented after the Nationals threatened to force a snap election to break the deadlock. It was the first such coalition government since 1986 and only the third in Enderronian history (excluding the wartime coalition governments of 1914–1916 and 1940–1945).
==Results==
↓ 	↓	↓ 	↓
69 	2	9 	70
Social Democrats	I	Nat	Liberal
 	 	 	 	 	 	
Party 	Party 	Votes 	% 	Swing 	Seats 	+/−
 	Social Democrats 	6,361,372 	41.47 	5.62 	69 	19
 	Liberal 	5,937,997 	38.71 	6.92 	70 	25
 	National 	951,061 	6.20 	3.07 	9 	4
 	Greens 	895,838 	5.84 	0.54 	0 	0
 	Democrats 	645,801 	4.21 	3.04 	0 	0
 	Other 	547,627 	3.57 	1.87 	2 	0
Two-party-preferred vote	Two-party-preferred vote	Two-party-preferred vote	Two-party-preferred vote	Two-party-preferred vote	Two-party-preferred vote	Two-party-preferred vote
 	Liberal 	7,803,304 	50.87 	5.13 	70 	25
 	Social Democrats 	7,536,393 	49.13 	5.13 	69 	19
Total 	Total 	15,339,697 	100 	 	150 	
Independents: Jack Berg, Geoff Martin
===Results by prefecture===
Party 	Party 	Party 	WE	NS	CO	NP	TJ	PL	WS	FL	JZ	LS	KA	MA	NC	LR	SY	SA	GB 	Total
rowspan="2"	Liberal 	Seats: 	12	4 	7 	8 	6 	5 	5 	7 	3 	3 	2 	3 	1 	3 	1 	0 	0 	70
Vote: 	Liberal 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	38.71	
rowspan="2"	Social Democrats	Seats: 	11	12	7 	6 	7 	7 	2 	1 	4 	4 	2 	1 	4 	0 	1 	0 	0 	69
Vote: 	Social Democrats	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	41.47	
rowspan="2"	National 	Seats: 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	3 	1 	0 	0 	2 	1 	0 	0 	0 	1 	1 	9
Vote: 	National 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	6.20 	
rowspan="2"	Other 	Seats: 	0 	1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	2
Vote: 	Other 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	13.62	
Total seats	Total seats 	Total seats	23	17	14	14	13	12	11	9 	7 	7 	6 	5 	5 	3 	2 	1 	1 	150
===Results by region===
Party 	Party 	Party 	Central	West	East	North	Total
rowspan="2"	Liberal 	Seats: 	35 	19 	11 	5 	70
Vote: 	Liberal 	 	 	 	 	38.71	
rowspan="2"	Social Democrats	Seats: 	40 	10 	13 	6 	69
Vote: 	Social Democrats	 	 	 	 	41.47	
rowspan="2"	National 	Seats: 	0 	4 	1 	4 	9
Vote: 	National 	 	 	 	 	6.20 	
rowspan="2"	Other 	Seats: 	1 	1 	0 	0 	2
Vote: 	Other 	 	 	 	 	13.62	
Total seats	Total seats 	Total seats	76 	34 	25 	15 	150
===Seats changing hands===
Seat 	Pre-2002	Pre-2002 	Pre-2002 	Pre-2002	Swing	Post-2002	Post-2002 	Post-2002 	Post-2002
Seat 	Party 	Party 	Member 	Margin 	Swing	Margin 	Member 	Party 	Party
Akagi, TJ 	 	Social Democrats	Jack Saito 	0.10 	4.49 	4.39 	Ayumi Nishikawa 	Liberal 	
Braddon, NS 	 	Liberal 	Michael Zehnder 	0.94 	N/A 	3.87 	Geoff Martin 	Independent 	
Brooklyn, JZ 	 	Social Democrats	Jonathan Lee 	7.70 	9.37 	1.67 	Michelle Evans 	Liberal 	
Burleigh, NP 	 	Social Democrats	James Simmons 	5.50 	6.66 	1.16 	Kyle Melman 	Liberal 	
Campbell, FL 	 	Independent 	George Roussos 	3.17 	N/A 	7.64 	John Taggart 	Liberal 	
Carrera 	 	Liberal 	notional – new seat 	4.52 	9.17 	4.65 	Dan Renwick 	Social Democrats	
Channel, PL 	 	Social Democrats	Roy Tennyson 	0.93 	8.95 	8.02 	Andrew Armstrong 	Liberal 	
Cheltenham 	 	Social Democrats	Roger Caines 	6.08 	10.85	4.77 	Angela Walker 	Liberal 	
Cook, PL 	 	Social Democrats	Colin McDonough 	1.81 	9.65 	7.84 	Linda Bergstrom 	Liberal 	
Dalton, MA 	 	Social Democrats	Russ Jackson 	3.23 	6.89 	3.36 	Barden Wu 	Liberal 	
Devon, PL 	 	Liberal 	Florence Kennett 	5.91 	6.62 	0.71 	Kate Salguero 	Social Democrats	
Docklands, WE 	 	Social Democrats	Christine Sokolowski	0.53 	6.24 	5.71 	Craig Ahlquist 	Liberal 	
Duyfken, SY 	 	Social Democrats	Ben Horgan 	2.23 	2.60 	0.37 	Margaret Bayliss 	Liberal 	
East Lynn, NP 	 	Social Democrats	Lionel Wicks 	13.23 	13.50	0.27 	Heather Lansberry	Liberal 	
Fairfield, NC 	 	Social Democrats	Mike Miyagi 	5.47 	5.50 	0.03 	Kevin Motta 	Liberal 	
Forrest, MA 	 	Social Democrats	Michelle Lawrie 	2.20 	N/A 	2.37 	Pete Bartlett 	National 	
Goulburn, KA 	 	Liberal 	notional – new seat 	6.96 	12.66	5.70 	Rick Silberman 	National 	
Hawthorne, PL 	 	Liberal 	notional – new seat 	4.41 	5.68 	1.27 	Rhys Marnell 	Social Democrats	
Hexham, NP 	 	Social Democrats	Murph Hackett 	4.96 	5.13 	0.17 	Alex Kastelan 	Liberal 	
Jenkins, WS 	 	Social Democrats	Robert Weis 	0.89 	6.64 	5.75 	Stephen Vella 	Liberal 	
Kamijima, TJ 	 	Social Democrats	Karen Hara 	8.17 	9.24 	1.07 	Amy Austen 	Liberal 	
Keppel, NS 	 	Social Democrats	notional – new seat 	2.65 	3.41 	0.76 	Greg Henrickson 	Liberal 	
Kingston, NP 	 	Social Democrats	Harry White 	3.36* 	3.54 	0.18 	David Woodhouse 	Liberal 	
Lakeside, KA 	 	Liberal 	Jerry McCartney 	2.52 	4.64 	2.12 	Marjorie Beckett 	Social Democrats	
MacDonnell, WE 	 	Social Democrats	Damian Firestone 	2.24 	3.54 	1.30 	John Ifeanyi 	Liberal 	
Macquarie, KA 	 	Social Democrats	Marjorie Beckett 	2.92 	N/A 	1.44 	John Maine 	National 	
Middle Range, WS 	 	Liberal 	Mark Connors 	5.11 	N/A 	1.43 	Scott Rogerson 	National 	
Mizuoka, KA 	 	Social Democrats	Paul Jovanovski 	3.63 	5.49 	1.86 	Julia Zhou 	Liberal 	
Mount Gilbert, MA 	 	National 	Eric Wojtczak 	5.31 	N/A 	1.00 	Tom Tuckerman 	Liberal 	
Mulherin, LS 	 	Social Democrats	Justin Pence 	3.88 	4.78 	0.90 	Carl Wang 	Liberal 	
Orange, WS 	 	Social Democrats	Sandra Wouters 	1.69 	6.56 	4.87 	Michael Turnbull 	Liberal 	
Parnell, WE 	 	Social Democrats	Steve Dallen 	1.01 	2.25 	1.24 	Gladys Yung 	Liberal 	
Prince Edward, KA 	 	Social Democrats	notional – new seat 	3.79 	5.47 	1.68 	Tony Santoro 	Liberal 	
Seven Mile, PL 	 	Social Democrats	Al Howard 	3.05 	4.89 	1.84 	Joe Sandgren 	Liberal 	
Sutherland, MA 	 	Social Democrats	notional – new seat 	5.85 	7.44 	1.59 	Ethan Grajales 	Liberal 	
Warwick, FL 	 	Social Democrats	Kristy Hawke 	2.36 	6.20 	3.84 	Theo Stefanos 	Liberal 	
West Lynn, NP 	 	Independent 	Kuan-lin Hsiung 	0.75 	N/A 	7.04 	Colin Andersen 	Social Democrats	
White Beach, NP 	 	Social Democrats	Robert Mahon 	0.15 	3.72 	3.57 	Mark Ruddock 	Liberal 	
Wollstonecraft, LR	 	Social Democrats	Angus Lee 	3.76 	7.86 	4.10 	Pat Landon 	Liberal 	
Wolseley, NS 	 	Social Democrats	Brian Morphett 	6.75 	9.63 	2.88 	Gabriel Brusse 	Liberal 	
*Kingston, NP, was won by Alexander Tam of the Social Democrats at the previous election, but he resigned in 1999 and was succeeded by Harry White at the ensuing by-election. The margin listed above is the by-election margin.
===Analysis of results===
The election result was a hung parliament for the first time since 1986, which coincidentally was also the last time a conservative government came to power.
The Liberals gained many seats in areas previously considered relatively strong for the Social Democrats, especially in urban areas. The party won a majority of seats in Wentworth and New Plymouth for the first time since 1962 and 1966 respectively. The Liberals also made significant inroads into Eastern Enderron, and won a seat in New Colorado for the first time since 1986.
==Background==
===Parties===
Name	Name 	Ideology 	Party leader 	Seats 	Seats
Name	Name 	Ideology 	Party leader 	1998 result	At dissolution
 	Social Democratic Party 	Social democracy 	Rick Clarkson	/ 	/
 	Liberal Party 	Conservative liberalism	Wally Koepke 	/ 	/
 	Enderron National Party 	Agrarianism 	Jack Whitham 	/ 	/
 	IndependentsIndependents who sat in Parliament as of the end of the parliamentary term were Jack Berg, Kuan-lin Hsiung, Alan Lasseter and George Roussos.	– 	– 	/ 	/
===Previous election===
The Social Democratic Party, which had governed Enderron since 1990, was re-elected with a convincing majority at the 1998 federal election against the Conservative Party and Liberal Democrats, which had formed an electoral alliance in 1997.
===Parliamentary term===
Having been defeated in a landslide at two consecutive elections, the Conservatives under leader Wally Koepke rallied for a full merger with the smaller Liberal Democrats to avoid further cannibalising the centre-right vote, and to counter the impact of the far-right Enderron Democrats. This merger eventually occurred in February 2000, with the two parties amalgamating to become the Liberal Party of Enderron.
The Social Democrats enjoyed a significant honeymoon period following their re-election, but support steadily decreased throughout 1999 and the party's lead had all but evaporated by April 2000, thanks to dissatisfaction with government's economic reform program and increasing petrol prices. The SDP experienced mixed results at a series of by-elections in 1999, winning the seat of Taiping back from the opposition Conservatives, but losing Rockingham South to a left-wing independent and suffering negative swings in Kingston and Denison. Clarkson's attempts at introducing a goods and services tax (GST) and a tax hike for wealthier Enderronians were particularly unpopular. The Liberal Party took a small lead in the polls and largely retained such a lead until late 2001, when public opinion swung back towards the Social Democrats following the September 11 attacks and Enderron's entry into the War in Afghanistan.
===Retiring MPs===
Name 	Party 	Party 	Seat 	Reason 	Term in office
Samantha Belgrave	rowspan="12" 	Social Democrats	Tanshui, JZ 	Retirement 	1994–2002
Ray Desmond 	Cunningham, SYElectorate abolished	Social Democrats	Lost preselection	1994–2002 	
Richard Gaiser 	Torrens, WE 	Social Democrats	Retirement 	1978–2002 	
Jenny Gillespie 	Kitaoka, TJ 	Social Democrats	Retirement 	1994–2002 	
John Gillmartin 	Linden, WE 	Social Democrats	Retirement 	1990–2002 	
Jim Halston 	Shirakawa South, TJ 	Social Democrats	Retirement 	1950–2002 	
Simon Kempton 	Essendon, FL 	Social Democrats	Retirement 	1990–2002 	
Wendy Kuroda 	Hayakita, TJ 	Social Democrats	Retirement 	1993–2002 	
Jack Saito 	Akagi, TJ 	Social Democrats	Retirement 	1982–1986, 1994–2002	
Michael J. Wang 	Douglas, NP 	Social Democrats	Retirement 	1992–2002 	
Stephanie Whedon 	Endeavour, CO 	Social Democrats	Retirement 	1994–2002 	
Lionel Wicks 	West Lynn, NP 	Social Democrats	Retirement 	1970–2002 	
Frederick Bosman 	rowspan="6" 	Liberal 	Arlington, LR 	Retirement 	1962–2002
Jonathan Coker 	Formosa, JZ 	Liberal 	Lost preselection	1994–2002 	
Ashley Garrison 	Rock Valley, NS 	Liberal 	Retirement 	1994–2002 	
Florence Kennett 	Devon, PL 	Liberal 	Retirement 	1994–2002 	
Hank Murdoch 	Yamaguchi, TJ 	Liberal 	Retirement 	1994–2002 	
Dominic Whyte 	Kawayama, TJ 	Liberal 	Retirement 	1994–2002 	
Darrell Dexter 	 	National 	Sierra, SA 	Retirement 	1982–1986, 1995–2002
===Changes in parliamentary composition===
Seat 	Before 	Before	Before 	Change 	Change 	Change 	After 	After	After
Seat 	Member 	Party 	Party 	Type 	Reason 	Date 	Member 	Party	Party
Denison, JZ 	Anton Amalfi 	 	Social Democrats	By-election 	Resignation 	31 July 1999 	Chris Hammond 	 	Social Democrats
Kingston, NP 	Alexander Tam 	 	Social Democrats	By-election 	Resignation 	31 July 1999 	Harry White 	 	Social Democrats
Rockingham South, CO	David Paterson 	 	Social Democrats	By-election 	Resignation 	31 July 1999 	Alan Lasseter 	 	Independent
Taiping, LS 	Daniel S. Kelly 	 	Conservative 	By-election 	Resignation 	31 July 1999 	David Lui 	 	Social Democrats
Roscoe, WS 	Ian Rafferty 	 	Conservative 	Party switch	Party switch	26 September 1999	Ian Rafferty 	 	National
Campbell, FL 	George Roussos 	 	Conservative 	Party switch	Party switch	15 February 2000 	George Roussos	 	Independent
Harvey, TJ 	Nick Giannakopoulos	 	Social Democrats	By-election 	Resignation 	15 May 2000 	Olivia Hamer 	 	Social Democrats
Forsythia, NS 	Chris Daley 	 	Social Democrats	By-election 	Death 	3 March 2001 	Fiona Daley 	 	Social Democrats
Anderson, WE 	Marcel Liew 	 	Social Democrats	By-election 	Resignation 	15 December 2001 	Tony Yang 	 	Social Democrats
==Redistributions==
The Enderronian Electoral Commission is required, one year after the first sitting day for a new Parliament, to determine the number of members to which each prefecture is entitled. If the number in any prefecture changes, a redistribution will be required in those prefectures.
The Clarkson Government legislated an increase in the Parliament by 25 seats, from 125 to 150 seats, which came into effect at the 2002 election. Demographic statistics for December 2000 released by Statistics Enderron were used to calculate the determination.
Prefecture 	Seats	Change
Wentworth 	23 	1
New Surrey 	17 	2
Cooksland 	14 	1
New Plymouth	14 	1
Tojima 	13 	0
Plymouth 	12 	1
Westhaven 	11 	0
Flinders 	9 	1
Janszoon 	7 	0
Longshan 	7 	0
Kaigan 	6 	2
Miranda 	5 	0
New Colorado	5 	1
Lawrencia 	3 	0
Sylvania 	2 	0
Sierra 	1 	0
Greenberg 	1 	0
Total 	150 	10
===Seat changes===
====Abolished seats====
Seat 	Party	Party 	Member 	Change
Cunningham, SY	 	Social Democrats	Ray Desmond	Renamed to Kin Loong
O'Malley, MA 	 	Social Democrats	Ed Milburn 	Renamed to Sutherland
====New seats====
Seat 	Notionally held by	Notionally held by
Carrera, NP 	 	Liberal
Druitt, CO 	 	Social Democrats
Goulburn, KA 	 	Liberal
Griffith, NC 	 	Social Democrats
Hawthorne, PL 	 	Liberal
Jansen, WE 	 	Liberal
Keppel, NS 	 	Social Democrats
Kin Loong, SY 	 	Social Democrats
Lauderdale, NS 	 	Social Democrats
Lyons, FL 	 	Liberal
Prince Edward, KA	 	Social Democrats
Sutherland, MA 	 	Social Democrats
==Pendulum==
LIBERAL SEATS (70) 	LIBERAL SEATS (70)	LIBERAL SEATS (70)	LIBERAL SEATS (70)
Marginal 	Marginal 	Marginal 	Marginal
Fairfield (NC) 	Kevin Motta 	LPE 	0.03
Hexham (NP) 	Alex Kastelan 	LPE 	0.17
Kingston (NP) 	David Woodhouse 	LPE 	0.18
East Lynn (NP) 	Heather Lansberry 	LPE 	0.27
Duyfken (SY) 	Margaret Bayliss 	LPE 	0.37
Keppel (NS) 	Greg Henrickson 	LPE 	0.76
Mulherin (LS) 	Carl Wang 	LPE 	0.90
Mount Gilbert (MA) 	Tom Tuckerman 	LPE 	1.00
Kamijima (TJ) 	Amy Austen 	LPE 	1.07
Burleigh (NP) 	Kyle Melman 	LPE 	1.16
Parnell (WE) 	Gladys Yung 	LPE 	1.24
MacDonnell (WE) 	John Ifeanyi 	LPE 	1.30
Sutherland (MA) 	Ethan Grajales 	LPE 	1.59
Brooklyn (JZ) 	Michelle Evans 	LPE 	1.67
Prince Edward (KA) 	Tony Santoro 	LPE 	1.68
Seven Mile (PL) 	Joe Sandgren 	LPE 	1.84
Mizuoka (KA) 	Julia Zhou 	LPE 	1.86
Palmerston West (LS)	Marcia Poole 	LPE 	2.06
Rijkens (TJ) 	Noburo Ito 	LPE 	2.40
Wolseley (NS) 	Gabriel Brusse 	LPE 	2.88
Franklin (WE) 	Georgia Hickerson 	LPE 	3.02
Dalton (MA) 	Barden Wu 	LPE 	3.36
White Beach (NP) 	Mark Ruddock 	LPE 	3.57
Scott (CO) 	Ryan Barr 	LPE 	3.73
Warwick (FL) 	Theo Stefanos 	LPE 	3.84
Whetstone (WE) 	Vert Kirkby 	LPE 	3.86
Wollstonecraft (LR) 	Pat Landon 	LPE 	4.10
Gibson (PL) 	Finn Neyman 	LPE 	4.31
Akagi (TJ) 	Ayumi Nishikawa 	LPE 	4.39
Carlisle (FL) 	Tom Mountbatten 	LPE 	4.46
Cheltenham (CO) 	Angela Walker 	LPE 	4.77
Orange (WS) 	Michael Turnbull 	LPE 	4.87
Docklands (WE) 	Craig Ahlquist 	LPE 	5.71
Jenkins (WS) 	Stephen Vella 	LPE 	5.75
Fairly safe 	Fairly safe 	Fairly safe 	Fairly safe
Palmerston East (LS)	Mary Svensson 	LPE 	6.03
Epsom (NS) 	Bernie Deitz 	LPE 	6.48
Thompson (WE) 	Andrew Kittinger 	LPE 	6.53
Mitchell (FL) 	William Behrens 	LPE 	6.92
Jansen (WE) 	Phoebe Knowles 	LPE 	7.12
Cowper (WS) 	Terry Hoekstra 	LPE 	7.42
Campbell (FL) 	John Taggart 	LPE 	7.64
Cook (PL) 	Linda Bergstrom 	LPE 	7.84
Channel (PL) 	Andrew Armstrong 	LPE 	8.02
Dawson (PL) 	Larry Cheslock 	LPE 	8.38
Wilson (CO) 	Billy Hayes 	LPE 	8.45
Sjoberg (WE) 	Paul Wagner 	LPE 	8.54
Devereaux (NP) 	Terrence Goewey 	LPE 	8.70
Minato (TJ) 	Marilyn Richards 	LPE 	9.30
Meiling Bay (JZ) 	Ken Sampson 	LPE 	9.73
Yamaguchi (TJ) 	Sakura Mirren 	LPE 	9.80
Safe 	Safe 	Safe 	Safe
Hamilton (WS) 	Andrew Kirschbaum 	LPE 	10.31
Epping (NP) 	Ryan Steele 	LPE 	10.50
Kawayama (TJ) 	Jason Higgins 	LPE 	11.11
Brighton (WE) 	Annette O'Neil 	LPE 	12.00
Aston (NP) 	Dave Crothers 	LPE 	12.82
Olympia (WE) 	Patrick Tiller 	LPE 	12.89
Fuller (WS) 	Allan Farrell 	LPE 	13.76
Southcott (WE) 	Joe Haberfield 	LPE 	14.08
Tregear (CO) 	David Narayan 	LPE 	15.09
Rock Valley (NS) 	Dominic Chao 	LPE 	15.64
McLaughlin (LR) 	Jeremy Wansey 	LPE 	15.89
Harrison (FL) 	Matthew Caine 	LPE 	16.26
Formosa (JZ) 	Adrian Coghlan 	LPE 	16.68
Bayswater (WE) 	Alec Bargerink 	LPE 	16.92
Arlington (LR) 	Ronny Maliszewski 	LPE 	17.70
Very safe 	Very safe 	Very safe 	Very safe
Mayfair (CO) 	Ed Calderon 	LPE 	20.04
Oxley (CO) 	Terry Schachter 	LPE 	21.83
Richmond (FL) 	Sam Hofer-Miyamoto	LPE 	22.27
Marshall Bay (CO) 	Wally Koepke 	LPE 	23.95
Lyons (FL) 	Donna Pasquariello	LPE 	24.88
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC SEATS (69)	SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC SEATS (69)	SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC SEATS (69)	SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC SEATS (69)
Marginal 	Marginal 	Marginal 	Marginal
Waverton (NS) 	Roger Seville 	SDP 	0.37
Essendon (FL) 	Noah Ramsay 	SDP 	0.70
Devon (PL) 	Kate Salguero 	SDP 	0.71
Hawthorne (PL) 	Rhys Marnell 	SDP 	1.27
Nanhai (PL) 	Alex Mikakos 	SDP 	1.29
Edison (WE) 	Michael Jersey 	SDP 	1.46
Griffith (NC) 	Mike Miyagi 	SDP 	1.72
Hannigan (WE) 	William Wu 	SDP 	1.96
Nishihama (TJ) 	Joe Chester 	SDP 	2.05
Kitaoka (TJ) 	Kerry Tokui 	SDP 	2.08
Lakeside (KA) 	Marjorie Beckett 	SDP 	2.12
Durston (TJ) 	John Salvetti 	SDP 	2.32
Lyndhurst (NS) 	Tom Woodlands 	SDP 	2.42
Forsythia (NS) 	Fiona Daley 	SDP 	2.48
Sunnyvale (WS) 	Caleb McNally 	SDP 	2.49
Jackson (WE) 	Rick Clarkson 	SDP 	2.68
Rockingham North (CO) 	Jennifer Rooker 	SDP 	3.12
Grey (NS) 	Sam Kerry 	SDP 	3.39
Harvey (TJ) 	Olivia Hamer 	SDP 	3.43
Rosslea (JZ) 	Leon McCullough 	SDP 	3.44
Hacking (NS) 	Bill Casey-Smith 	SDP 	3.46
Douglas (NP) 	Mark Serio 	SDP 	3.64
Lauderdale (NS) 	Christian Suhandi 	SDP 	3.69
Taylor (NP) 	Morgan Lewis 	SDP 	3.89
Rockingham South (CO) 	Janine Wollstonecraft 	SDP 	4.17
St Claire (PL) 	Matthew Resch 	SDP 	4.39
Hayakita (TJ) 	Shane Ishiba 	SDP 	4.51
Linden (WE) 	Kim Flowers 	SDP 	4.54
Carrera (NP) 	Dan Renwick 	SDP 	4.65
Berkeley (PL) 	Bob Crouch 	SDP 	4.72
Strachan (NS) 	Christine Whitesel 	SDP 	5.13
Druitt (CO) 	Josh Riley 	SDP 	5.19
Torrens (WE) 	David Zeng 	SDP 	5.26
Taiping (LS) 	David Lui 	SDP 	5.27
Nanshan (LS) 	Hanqing Zhou 	SDP 	5.30
Heathbridge (WE) 	Kim Hernandez 	SDP 	5.60
Fairly safe 	Fairly safe 	Fairly safe 	Fairly safe
Watford (PL) 	Anne Kempsey 	SDP 	6.14
Leightonfield (NS) 	Zack Smith 	SDP 	6.27
Karburgh (NC) 	Kelly Chan 	SDP 	6.37
Lewisham (NP) 	Jean Remington 	SDP 	6.88
Taralga (KA) 	Andrew Larson 	SDP 	6.97
West Lynn (NP) 	Colin Andersen 	SDP 	7.04
Tanshui (JZ) 	Melanie Spencer 	SDP 	7.19
Reed (WE) 	Latosha Miyashiro 	SDP 	7.38
Nottingham (MA) 	Mark McNaughton 	SDP 	7.48
Monash (NS) 	Steve Lomas 	SDP 	7.69
Merewether (NS) 	Yvonne Chieng 	SDP 	8.18
Rockingham Central (CO) 	Tony Harris 	SDP 	8.58
Kin Loong (SY) 	Pavel Kyung 	SDP 	8.65
Coburn (NS) 	Jim Hadley 	SDP 	8.92
Jingcheng (LS) 	Anika Kwok 	SDP 	9.55
Charlestown (NC) 	Stacey Coleman 	SDP 	9.60
Safe 	Safe 	Safe 	Safe
Victoria (PL) 	Jennifer Williamson 	SDP 	10.02
Normanhurst (CO) 	Joyce Redding 	SDP 	10.08
Denison (JZ) 	Chris Hammond 	SDP 	11.29
Endeavour (CO) 	Thomas van Veen 	SDP 	11.61
Wentworth (WE) 	Janine Gosling 	SDP 	12.13
Dover (NC) 	Alex Dos Santos 	SDP 	12.25
Kensington (WE) 	Sian O'Dwyer 	SDP 	12.44
Chung'an (LS) 	Jason Huynh 	SDP 	12.67
Bexley (WE) 	Anthony Faccinto 	SDP 	13.06
Kingscliffe (JZ) 	Michelle Chew 	SDP 	14.08
Shirakawa Central (TJ) 	Dallas Oishi 	SDP 	14.33
Reedijk (CO) 	Tom Vickery 	SDP 	14.39
Port William (WS) 	Bert Thompson 	SDP 	14.69
Stewart (NP) 	Rick Perras 	SDP 	15.29
Anderson (WE) 	Tony Yang 	SDP 	15.83
Shirakawa South (TJ) 	Hiroko Layton 	SDP 	18.22
Very safe 	Very safe 	Very safe 	Very safe
Woodleigh (NS) 	Aaron Pearson 	SDP 	20.14
CROSSBENCH SEATS (11) 	 	 	
Roscoe (WS) 	Ian Rafferty 	ENP 	0.13
Middle Range (WS) 	Scott Rogerson 	ENP 	1.43
Macquarie (KA) 	John Maine 	ENP 	1.44
Greenberg (GB) 	Stephanie Lorenzo 	ENP 	1.63
Forrest (MA) 	Pete Bartlett 	ENP 	2.37
Braddon (NS) 	Geoff Martin 	IND 	3.87
Sierra (SA) 	Vince Stanton 	ENP 	4.57
Goulburn (KA) 	Rick Silberman 	ENP 	5.70
Fairfax (FL) 	Martin Brooks 	ENP 	7.86
Nord (WS) 	Jack Berg 	IND 	8.71
Kennedy (WS) 	Jack Whitham 	ENP 	10.49
==Opinion polling==
===Graphical summary===
==References==