2008 tienxia economic crise

Ia prest taraksignes prohp in 2006 kun id numer iom forpayghens iom subprimes ieug significant-ye. Id numer iom forrembeursens lit ithan ex 885 000 in 2005 do 1 259 118 in 2006, yani 42% augen. Ta prest concorsa wieurg id curs iom bankwirtpapiers bet kathalika reduxeer id liquiditat iom securitisationsproducts habend ka sublyehgend amlaks sem US subprimes. Id sneigvball effect bistars tun jaldi, somkwe id numer om subprimen forrembeursens eesiswehlend in ia Uniet Stats os America, dar augend in 2007 unte 75% binisbat 2006. 
==Id financial macroeconomic quader : accomodanto monetar siyassa ed transfers om sparens sudtos nordtro==
Ob ia banks ne eent kyimt ab un contracyclic xisey hant ia laynen aun analyse id soliditat im launers (woiks, funds...) ed ter ghohd ses excess os credit nehmen. Bet ta xiseykussours ne habient ducen ei sam resultat sei ne habient est excess os creation os tienxia liquiditat. Tod excess os liquiditat hat permitten refinance aun difficultat id oku nehmen os credit : hatghi dadwt id "air" ibs burbules, qua ia xiseydefects possiblihr. Excessive tienxia liquiditat hat dwo cumulative causes. 
Id kowpen om change reserves ab ia Central Banks iom Asiat lands ed naftexporters duxit uni exuberanti monetari creation. Id kowpen om change reserves est baygh akster unte ia prista os sliebe ios US dollar (2002-2007), chunke resultet ex id vol os oistabilise id valutacurs ios dollar nespekent id chronic extro deficit iom Uniet Stats. De facto, ta lands hieb un problem os demande, ed ne os offerte, iaghi wien exspandend mercats ambh se. To buit uperwohrt med important ed crehscend extro exceddents, ed med un transfer os sparen do ia antslohnken lands. Permittend-ye ghi ibs emergents (China, ONEL lands...) exporte sparen (petis quem importe sem) hat Financialo globalisation participen ir expansion... betschi id crise. Ia Emergent mercats hant sparen (circa 5 billions om US dollars) aun incurre a priori id risk bohndto tei sparen, ta inlyeigens tyehcend majoritar-ye in dollars sub forme om deposits au Khasnah bonds. Tod sparen buit yaschi laynt ad US au britisch woiks (ed entreprises). Med alya werds, ye alter bors ios zangir, i launers eent riscat. 
Fin-ye, kweter ye uno micro- au macroeconomic vidpoint, ia inland ed international financial desequilibers hant un commun cause, procyclic finance, quod concernt vasya economic agents : ia banks, qua laynent pior samt pior ghem riskpremia unte ia expansionsprista; i launers, qui accepte pior alt makrousia nivells unte ia crosctprista, pati in valuta; i investors, qui creiscent pior ed imitative-ye id part iom riscat amlaks in ir portfolios kun ia prisa iom amlaks auge; ed fin-ye i international investors qui incurre change ed souverain riska kun id aversion dia risk est ghem ed qui reike ia endergumtrawaja unte ia crise prista. 
==Id real macroeconomic quader : deformation ios deilen ios addihn wirt ed insufficience iom productivitatsgains==
Trans ia financial considerations qua seule id crise, ia raudhs ios khitert wehse in id crosctmodel widen pre id crise ab ia antslohnken lands. Tod model hieb destull clar commun ed bohnden kweits : 
- weiden ios sayct financial Capitalisme, quod buit uperwohrt besonters ab un deformation in id deilen ios addihn wirt ye id detriment im salairs (bilhassa in anglicisant lands, inschi Deutschland ed Japan), ed ab id reduction iom productive investors (in id Eurozone exter Deutschland); 
- conversion do ia dogmes os neoliberal fundamentalisme, quos id Bush amtstid buit un perfect perkeipen, quod ghehdt bihe resumet med id formule greed is good, "las est gohd" pro economia. To buit uperwohrt ab id emergence uns classe em hyper-richens in ia occidental societats, gnaht ex id collusion inter actionnaires ed meger jusayrjiens eni id quader ios weiden os financial capitalisme, permiss ab id societal acceptation om extravagant remunerations (mathalan ia salairs iom footballers), ed encouraget ab fiscal siyassas bezielend milder id progresivitat ios impost; 
- muhim antslehnken iom inegalitats, bohnden ei prever point, betschi consequences os Globalisation (quod waurct ia orbatersalairs) ed ios technologic acceleration (quod reduct id wan iom medyen qualifications);
- desindustrialisation ed nilenten iom productivitats, in un contexte os excessive offshoring (lato sensu) do lands samt muzlim salaircosts ob uno nebewaldhen globalisation. 
- polarisation ios orbatsmercat, samt antplehcen iom employs ye bo borsa : sophisticat sectors samt alt nivells om productivitat ed salairs (nehmen, construction, services pro privat individus, farakhat...), samt progressive disparition iom intermedyen sectors. 
To hol hat ducto do id sliebe iom crehscens om salairs in vasya lands ab in-kap ia dwo-tusents, id stehmen ios demande esend tun swekwohrt ab id crehscen ios makrousia iom woiks. Idschi makrousia iom entreprisen hat akster-ye auct bi divers sababs : sliebe os swofinancen, paursken unios meis alt makrousia drangh. Idghi crise est sul-ye un crise os makrousia ka remeid ei sliebe iom salairs ed swofinancen.
==Id jinkdousa ios crise==
Tiel wer 2009, nimen woid kweter id ghehdsiet bihe arct, we an bihsiet uperwohrt med un collapse os tienxia economia, instar quo hieb wakyet in ia 1930tias, samt ia gnohn consequences. De facto, maung depens ia meids os public reaction tei katel spiral. Ia responses ei crise buir en masse, semquayt coordinen, ye id hoge ios systemic riskios kwaht unte sem wakt. 
Opos tohrb sammel bihe stohmen mae entre deflation, simultan ed swoposdohrjto sehnken om crosct ed prisa. Est id rol os budgetar siyassa, ed iom nehsplans widen quantloc tienxia. 
Ia Uniet Stats, China, Japan au id Europay Union hant it udkardkascht pondost nehsplans, samt un declaren total mikdar om meis quem 2,8 billions om US dollars unte dwo yars. Id idafi masraf deciden ab ia magna lands pro 2009 ed 2010 skeipt 5% os tienxia BIP. 
De facto, public makrousia hat crohscen quantloc tienxia unte muhim proportions, se substituend part-ye ad privat makrousia, provoquend id crise in Europe, ed rhayr-yakinias de id rembeursimkan iom Uniet Stats (ielgs est un revision ios dulgplafon fiscal cliff necessar). Besonters in Europe, id question iom exit strategias, mliak au brutal, buit tohmen ab id crise iom peripheric lands, ed id generalisen distrust iom mercats vis-à-vis ia public dulgs ios Eurozone. Est id saat os adjustement, pro ia noroctsta, os austeritat pro alters. 
In 2015, id crise kwehct apter Dunia bila ses apter Europe. Id situation ios US economia illustret besonters tod factstand : beghsorbatia lyehct ye sien ghemst point pon 2008 (5,5% ios orbatsforce), Wall Street retrehft ia precrise nivells, id FED daumt de id waurmen os ende id Quantitative Easing 3, ia entreprises hant restauren ir benefices, id banksysteme hat satisfacen ia stresstests edghi ananct soliditatsgheigtels, id woikenmoral auct, id budgetar deficit ed, sekwos to, id ratio os public makrousia sehnct, quo pierneiht id naudh os iter-ye crisces id fiscal mur. Diutos hant ia emergent kwohryet ir ubtro itner.