IMP61

==Chapter 61 - Important People==
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[Coalition of the Willing...]
In may of 3097, the Republic of the Sphere finished breaking the Capellan Confederation's resistance, taking a massive bite from that state and inflicting a series of brutal defeats that humiliated House Liao and forced them to sign on to the Republic treaty.
The destruction meted out included a series of naval defeats achieved mainly through the use of mothballed SLDF designs that had not been accounted for or available during the Jihad, as well as a number of strategic and tactical errors by House Liao's military forces that would be officially (in Republic, and to an extent, Federated Suns sources) attributed to the exceptional brilliance of Devlin Stone and Paladin Victor Steiner-Davion.
Thus, the surging Republic could focus it's attention on the last state to refuse ratification of the Uniform Naval Treaty as well as the Republic Treaty: the Lyran Commonwealth.
Why the delay?  During the Jihad, the Lyrans and the Capellans both fought the Word of Blake on their own, only lending help to the Coalition in the final stages.  The Commonwealth's navy was... remarkably large and built remarkably quickly, and under Admiral Elizabeth Ngo, it was remarkably un-Lyran.  Which is to say, remarkably competent both tactically and strategically when used.
Simply put the Republic used the Capellans, whose naval forces were both weaker and less experienced as a preliminary bout. To build up a Naval doctrine and assemble a Naval force to support and integrate their extensive ground forces arm.
Politically, the delay was also necessary to build and assemble support and arrange conditions by which a friendlier, more compliant Lyran government could be assembled.  This mainly focused on recruiting as many pro-Victor supporters as possible within the Lyran Commonwealth, with a heavy emphasis on supporting Free Skye agitation and covert operations to create dissent and disunity within the Commonwealth's states and armed forces.
The preliminary attempt at overthrowing the Adam Steiner administration was mainly successful in killing Archon Adam Steiner and placing his inexperienced son, Andrew, on the throne.  This was not the intended effect.
It's important to understand: They didn't intend for anyone in that line to remain alive to claim the throne, and they did not expect the initial plan to overthrow the Archon and replace him with a sympathetic follower to fail as quickly, or as thoroughly as it did.
The mysterious arrival of a Lyran Naval task force over Tharkad had not been planned for, because it was not seen as possible by Republic planners and RAF intelligence sources.
Diplomatically, the typical outcome would be a termination of diplomacy and a declaration of war.  The Republic's involvement was poorly concealed, and the domestic conspiracy was revealed within days.
Andrew kept the Republic's ambassador talking for months after the coup attempt. Right through Christmas of 3098, before talks broke down entirely.
Thus buying time for the Commonwealth's Navy to repair a number of battlegroups and warships, and engage in hunting down the location and support for ships that defected in the Coup.
Much of his success in keeping the diplomatic situation from going straight to a war the Commonwealth wasn't really prepared for (yet), was not a given due to his youth and apparent inexperience.   It might seem even less likely, when one remembers the aggravated fractures forming within Lyran Society at the time.
The Republic's operational plan shifted slightly to capitalize on Archon Andrew's youth and what their intelligence was saying was his unstable position.
Basically, David Lear underestimated the oldest son of Adam Steiner.
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