South American Crisis

Category:South America
Category:United Nations
Category:War
Category:Politics
Category:Work in progressThe South American Crisis, considered by many to have begun in 2016 in Chile and accelerated in 2026 in Brazil, was a period of interrelated conflicts primarily in South America involving Brazil. By 2027, Brazil was at war with 14 countries, including Argentina, and on the brink of war with the United States over Puerto Rico.
==2026 Imperial Brazilian coup==
The Brazilian Empire would last from 2026 until 2071 or 2072, beginning when the US-backed liberal nationalist regime of Prime Minister Hamilton Mourao would radically reorganize the government for the second time since 2024, consolidating more power away from the head of state and into the office of the prime minister while also overthrowing the democratically-elected President Lula da Silva in a bloodless palace coup, and installing in his place as Emperor of Brazil Bertrand of Orléans-Braganza, with the US-backed military government crowning him emperor on 1 January 2026 in return for Brazilian fealty to US hegemony in the Atlantic. This rapprochement between the US liberal nationalists and the Brazilian liberal nationalists would be short-lived, however, as several months later Brazil would be threatening the Caribbean and Southern Cone with expansionist war, the military junta laying claim to 13 countries in the name of the emperor in Central and South America by 2027.
==Brazilian–Verdean conflicts (2016–2027)==
:See: Bolivian–Chilean Territorial Crisis, Chilean Crisis, BAP Almirante Grau hijacking, Brazilian–Chilean Invasion of Argentina, Cuban–Verdean Invasion of Central America, Verdean Invasion of Bolivia, & Verdean Invasion of Baja California
Throughout the late-2010’s and into the 2020’s, Brazil, Chile, Cuba and Venezuela deepen their military cooperation. It is through China that Brazil and Venezuela and rogue-states such as North Korea and Cuba came to be so close by the early 2020’s, just prior to the final escalation in global confrontation. As early as September 2016, then President of Ecuador Rafael Correa warned of a potential ‘Operation Condor 2.0,’ in which out of fear of a resurgent Russia, the U.S. begins funding into power authoritarian regimes that would support them in lieu of Moscow. This enabling of the right-wing is most prominent in Spain - as well as one of the primary three offenders of the previous campaign of state-sponsored terrorism, and the second-most powerful country in the Western Hemisphere: Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Venezuela.
Beginning in 2016, Alberto Curamil, a Mapuche environmental activist, successfully blocked the construction of two hydroelectric power projects. Chilean authorities arrested him in 2018, seemingly putting to bed the goals of Mapuche indigenous peoples for autonomy and freedom from Argentine–Chilean ethno-nationalism, until in 2019. Curamil is given the prestigious Goldman Prize award by an international human rights body, giving right-wing President Sebastian Pinera the first headache of his administration, and jump-starting what would become a near-decade-long conflict for the liberation of the Mapuche and indigenous peoples across the Americas. 
 
In June 2018, a controversial and outsized response to violence in the poorest region of Chile known as Araucania, came in response to a wave of arson and other attacks against primarily forestry companies by indigenous Mapuche and their allies. “Jungle Command,” the special militarized police unit created by Pinera, drew massive backlash with protests reaching as far away as Santiago, when a protestor on a tractor named Camilo Catrillanca was shot through the head by Commandos near the village of Ercilla in November of that same year. Even despite the growing backlash against the Colombian-trained Jungle Commandos, equipped with bullet-proof jackets, drones and high-tech surveillance and communications systems, Pinera continues to defend his Araucania policy – entrenching the opposition and drawing condemnation of the Chilean government from international bodies such as the United Nations and Amnesty International as well as the international community writ large.
After the failure of the uprising against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the Communist Party of Cuba in the spring of 2019 and fall of 2021 respectively, interests involving American imperialism for resources among other reasons such as soft warfare against the Venezuelan populace itself results in an inevitable and incredibly bloody Civil War in Venezuela in mid-2022, in which the US military intervention fails catastrophically. The repercussions cripple Colombia, which finds itself not only engaging FARC rebels, but simultaneously fighting off Tupamaro insurgencies on its Eastern border. And Venezuela soon thereafter falls victim to right-wing ultranationalist military occupation by Bolsonaro-loyalist anti-Socialist radical militancy. This causes a ripple effect across Eastern South America, affecting the Guyanese and Ecuadorian economies as well.
By this point in time, Argentina - already recoiling from economic and political crises from the 1990's and 2000's - was on the verge of becoming a failed state with the return of the Kirchner Dynasty and their subsequent sell-out to Chile and Cuba regarding the New South American Depression beginning in Colombia and Venezuela.
The economic instability in its Southwestern neighbor results in parallel instability in Brazil. This soon affects the outcome of the 2022 presidential election resulting in the subsequent Liberal-Socialist regime which allows the military to run rampant with their own ultra-nationalist, imperialist ideology - in time fully annexing the countries of Suriname, Guyana, Paraguay and Uraguay - as well as the West Indies, and as far north as the Bahamas, by 2027.
Despite Argentina's overwhelming numerical advantage, the geographically-strategic location and technological supremacy of Chile and Venezuela would prove too much of a threat to overcome, let alone ignore. Brazil initially assumes a non-aligned, neutral stance in South America similar to Switzerland in Europe, but later sees its interests diverge with Chile vis a vis Cuba and China. Chilean and Argentine ultra-nationalists found their views clash with the Brazilian military brass and nationalist establishment, which seized upon the radicalism of the incumbent Brazilian government to achieve their goals of a "Soviet American Union" with the American countries of Argentina and Chile playing the role of Ukraine and Belarus.
But perhaps the most impressive of Chile's weaponry was its unrivaled martial prowess in general. Dressed in dark gray, with the iconic Stahlhelme helmets on their heads, Chile’s soldiers bear more than a passing resemblance to the Wehrmacht of World War 2. The colorful sashes and ceremonial rapiers of their officers seem to have been pulled directly from a history book, with the goose-stepping hammering home the point. However, the Chilean military didn’t just decide to embrace the Nazi aesthetic and lift the Prussian drill and doctrine from a history book. Rather, its distinctly Teutonic style has its roots in the 19th Century.
In the 1880s, Chile managed to prevail over Bolivia and Peru in the War of The Pacific, a dust-up over mining territory in the Atacama desert. Its military wasn’t in great shape, however, and its leaders wanted to bring in some external help to gain an edge over Chile’s neighbors. Enter the Prussians. Under Otto von Bismarck, the Prussians had managed in 1870 to unify the splintered principalities of northern Germany and win the Franco-Prussian War inside of ten months. Despite its small size, Prussia had a hardcore military culture and could hold its own against far larger European powers. The Chileans shipped a bunch of Prussian officers over to whip its military into shape, and by the time the Prussian Captain Emil Kِrner retired as the Commanding General of the Chilean Armed Forces in 1910, the country’s martial prowess was unmatched in South America.
Within a few years of Brazil's crisis, Argentina's civil unrest, and the collapse of the Guyana and Colombian economies, following - of course - the Venezuelan Civil War, Peru had been largely isolated and cut off from the East of the continent, and Argentina militarily dependent on the Chileans and Chile economically dependent on Argentina - and Russian-ally Cuba playing them both. Resistance movements fomented - and faltered - in Ecuador, Northern Colombia, and even as far north as Panama, Costa Rica and Honduras in 2023, 2024 and 2025 respectively. But the sheer tactical, strategic and technological superiority of the Chilean military - backed by the sheer size of the Cuban forces - was insurmountable, with no Brazil or America to come to the rescue, even all of the rest of the South American countries combined were unable to penetrate through the Andes - the longest and largest mountain range outside of Asia - or make it through almost 20 million kilometers of secured maritime territory extending as far East as Rapa Nui (or roughly 2,000 kilometers from British and French territory) - to strike anywhere vital to the aggressors' infrastructure or prevent Peru from falling into Axis orbit. The best case scenario involving a defeat for Argentina and Chile, sooner rather than later, was for the U.S. to collect itself long enough to deliver a tactical nuclear bombardment - and even then, Chile grew closer to adversaries militarily with each passing day.
All of this would culminate and result in in the 2027 Brazilian–Chilean Invasion of Argentina. The total devastation and destruction of the country and the killing of over 50,000 - mostly civilian - would draw Western condemnation, although most of the UN and the Global South would put the blame at the U.S. for backing a military coup in Brazil and the Western-backed genocide in Gaza for the drift in Western–Brazilian relations beginning in 2024.
===Cuban Civil War and insurgency===
Following an embargo after the takeover of a pro-American right-wing regime in 1959 and sour relations between the two nations for decades following the 1961 failed invasion of Cuba and 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, US president Barack Obama loosened business and travel restrictions with Cuba in 2014, also removing it from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. Presidents Trump and Biden would resume and accelerate these restrictions in 2017 and 2021, reversing their predecessor, and accelerating the embargo and trade restrictions on Cuba under the former-Vice President in 2022.
In the wake of renewed US aggression against Cuba, historically pro-US El Verdean country Chile reaffirms bilateral ties with the Communist state and even EU officials criticize the US (before drawing condemnation from their own authority) for their aggressive Cuba policies. These calls for rapprochement are joined by 80 House Democrats who call on the president to "revert to Obama-era Cuba detente", with four of its seven leading proponents representing the Congressional Progressive and Populist Caucuses. After a falling out with the White House and Democrats capitulating to Republicans proceeding initial support from House moderates, progressives spearheaded by Independent Vermont Senator and Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez blasts the Biden administration's stimulus bill as "[worse] than Trump's" after Senate Democrats rebuke the United States House of Representatives on the $15.00 minimum wage proposed by the Biden-Harris campaign in the 2020 election, and House Democrats led by House Speaker Pelosi capitulate to the Republicans on immigration.
This progressive-Democratic conflict would result in House progressives and Chairman Sanders being isolated in Congress on Cuba. A failed coup and brief insurgency in Cuban-allied Venezuela in 2019 and 2021 would embolden the Cuban dissident movement and Nationalism among the ranks of the Milicias de Tropas Territoriales and even among the military itself - bolstering a manpower over 1.2 million, the 11th-largest standing army on the planet (surpassed only by Brazil, China, India, Russia, Taiwan, Ukraine, Vietnam, North and South Korea and the United States) - the United States passes more sanctions and this time targets other Latin American states maintaining relations with Cuba beyond just Venezuela and Nicaragua, blasting and sanctioning Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Paraguay, Peru and El Salvador. The aforementioned countries, followed by more shortly, break ties with Cuba - following suit of the US in support of Cuban President Miguel Dيaz-Canel against the Castro regime - and in response Cuba begins acquiring soft power throughout Latin America in immediate blowback against the US pressure against the Castro regime. As a result, Castro is overthrown, but maintains support among the active duty - although dwarfed in number by the nationalist pro-Canel MTT. Castro and the ailing Revolutionary Army support left-leaning government in Argentina and the Pinera regime from exile in Nicaragua, although both eventually fall to the Nazbols at home and abroad - with the Korean-backed Cuban insurgents expanding their control over the country and region throughout the 2020's.
===2023-2027===
Immediately following the short and brutal Cuban Civil War was the three-year-long Argentine Crisis, instigated by Crypto-Nazi Chilean ultranationalists backed by the far-right Spanish Vox party that wished to unite all of Spanish-speaking America under the flag of Chile, while also utilizing the at this point year-long Mapuche Uprising as their primary scapegoat for fearmongering. The largely-isolated supporters of Pinochet and Colonia Dignidad had surged to prominence amid the growing backlash against the right-wing government of Sebastian Pinera, as well as the socialists of Michelle Bachelet, who were united in their disdain of the Theocratic movement. Finding its origin amid backing and funding from the Nationalist Bolsheviks of Argentina, Liberal Party of Brazil and the Iron Legionnaires of Rome, and pro-Legionnaire Clergy in Vatican City and throughout Latin America and Europe, the ‘National Peasants and Republicans Party’ (Partido Nacional Campesinos y Republicanos in Spanish, Partido Nacional dos Camponeses e Republicanos in Portuguese – PNCR, or “PiNCeR”) attained a worldwide presence. Although in most developed countries where the Pincer had official recognition as a political party they had a slight if even marginal existence, throughout the Middle-East and Latin America they were highly organized and involved in local and regional politics, with their representatives reaching the national stage in Livonia, Russia, Cuba, Tunisia, Venezuela, Syria, Paraguay, Chile, Peru, El Salvador and every country in Latin America except Costa Rica, Belize, Honduras, Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. However, it is only in the El Verdean countries and Venezuela that such a rabid strain of Nazbols would come to absolute power outside of Cuba, North Korea and Catalonia. Even gang-controlled Colombia kept the budding regime in Chile at an arm’s-length.
After Pinera’s resignation and the PNCR surge to power in the winter of 2021, the Chilean military brass were replaced with pro-Pincer loyalists, and a purge was initiated freakishly similar to the Nazis in 1930’s Weimar Germany. Pincer storm troopers patrolled the streets of South and Central American capitals and big cities, bullying, threatening and – eventually – killing its critics or people who thought differently, and its apologists and allies were deeply embedded within the North American government. The Pincer believed El Verde should be preserved for the ‘lineage of [their] fathers,’ which in their terms meant “European El Verde”. This put the US-backed government of Bolivia directly in the crosshairs of the Chilean juggernaut, which happened to coincide just as one of its chief rival Chile's closest allies in Latin America – Peru – lost its recently-retired flagship, the Almirante Grau, to a terrorist hijacking by perpetrators believed to be tied to Argentina and Chile. The missing ‘gun cruiser’ puts the world into a state of terror, knowing that one of the most powerful weapons of war on the planet was potentially in the hands of terrorists. This pandemonium is seized upon by the Argentine PNCR, which throws the country into a state of crisis and sees the return of the Kirchner dynasty less than a year later. The Anti-Fascist resistance fights on for years to come, but the fighters are reinforced month after month, year after year, by Russian, Peruvian and Chilean armor and artillery that cut through the Andes via bottleneck and switchback in hit-and-run attacks impossible to defend against and impossible to retaliate against, the dug-in columns of hostile armor and the sheer firepower awaiting both infantry and air craft attempting to bomb them out greeted with the same result each time – no matter the attack angle, the Andes themselves posing the greatest natural obstacle to the Argentine resistance. After almost two years of fighting against the Argentine government, Brazil and Chile’s armed and paramilitary forces across the Southern Cone, the resistance falters in Argentina, and the country de facto falls under the influence of Russia and its vassals in Chile and Peru. At the same time, Brazilian and Chilean Armed Forces launch full-fledged military attacks in Bolivia, and the Taura and Simon Bolivar air bases in Ecuador. After these attacks, Chile and Brazil directed their Navy at Central America and Baja California with Chilean and former-Peruvian air support, while launching ‘shock-and-awe’ maneuvers against southwestern Bolivia in the other direction. Despite how thinly-dispersed its Armed Forces were at the time, the methodical precision and preparation laid out beforehand by the Pincer was impeccable and uncanny.
From March 2023 to August 2024, the alliance between the Panamanian, Honduran and Colombian states is broken when the latter of the three withdraws after military bases in San Andres and Buenoventura are hit by air strikes, killing 1,000 soldiers atop the thousands of others that had been killed or disappeared by the Pincer reign of terror over El Verde. Until 2022, an ailing Central American resistance to the Russian, Cuban and Venezuelan militants persists on a trickle of U.S. and North American aid, but the millions of displaced adding to the Venezuelan refugee crisis destabilizes virtually every country south of North American Mexico, and leaves Baja California wide open to an attack by Russian, Cuban or Chilean forces. With the newly-dependent autonomies of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama united under the flag of a Californian–Mexican federal entity; a level of civil unrest and socioeconomic instability unseen since the Central American Crisis of the late 1970’s wrought the region and left it at the mercy of relentless Pincer terrorism and Chilean ultranationalism backed by the rogue state of Texas. As opposed to coming to the aid of their southern neighbors like the binding treaty obligated them to in such a situation, California and Mexico – and thus, North America – declares neutrality alongside Colombia and Texas.
The 2024–2026 War in El Salvador begins when the Salvadoran Army spearheading an independence movement launches attacks in what would begin the Nicaraguan–Salvadoran War and the Battles of Leon and Managua indicative therein. The sporadic skirmishes and attacks by Salvador backed by Chile, Venezuela, Brazil, Livonia and Russia gradually escalate and accelerate throughout the fall of 2024 and spring of 2025, culminating in a full-fledged Invasion of Nicaragua by the Salvadoran Army and Navy backed by Cuba, with the apex of the fighting in Leon and throughout northwest Nicaragua. The fighting results in a unified North American–US condemnation of El Salvador, and the Russian, Chilean, Cuban and Venezuelan government’s support for the attack on Nicaragua, seen as an attack against the entire North American continent. Authorities in Los Angeles and Mexico City had little to complain about regarding the pro-Russian states of Latin America and their expansionism, as the neutralization of Ecuador and Colombia following a protracted war with Peru serves to push the former two countries into North America’s budding orbit outside of the United States’… that is, until, Chinese-backed Pincer Venezuela's imperialist designs extend beyond Colombia and Guyana to set upon the Baja California peninsula. Specifically, one of the most prominent metropolitan centers on the North American continent – Tijuana.