Winston by-election, 2039

A by-election was held for the Craftian House of Representatives seat of Winston on Saturday 19 November 2039. It was triggered by the death of sitting member Tim Eu of the Craftian Conservative Party.
The by-election was narrowly retained by Bruce Kerry for the Conservative Party, in the closest result in decades in the otherwise ultra-safe Conservative seat. The CCP suffered a two-party-preferred swing of 16.11%. Although Winston was retained by the Conservatives, the by-election proved to be a harbinger for the federal election the following year, in which the party lost in a landslide.
Only three candidates nominated to contest the by-election. The Liberals declined to nominate a candidate.
==Seat overview==
Winston had been held by Eu since the 2032 by-election, and the Conservatives since the 2022 election. It was regarded by most political commentators as one of the safest seats for the Conservative Party, having held it without much difficulty since the 2000s. The Conservative margin had increased steadily over the past few decades as the seat was pushed further into the affluent and right-leaning suburbs of Novena. However, Eu's death occurred at a very poor time for the incumbent Conservative government of Johnny Yuss, with opinion polling suggesting the National United Party and Liberal Party of Craftia both within striking distance of overtaking the government. Throughout 2039, the government's poll numbers had steadily declined from 45 percent in January to less than 30 percent by the time of the by-election. It was thought that United could pull off a surprise victory and claim the normally blue-ribbon seat if the Conservatives continued to decline, although it was highly unlikely considering the safeness of the seat, which at the previous election resulted in a Conservative margin of 18.42%, placed the seat at the higher end of the list of safe seats. 
The narrower-than-expected result placed significant pressure on the Yuss Government. Although the downward trend in the polls plateaued, the Conservative Party would go on to suffer a landslide defeat at the 2040 federal election.
==Results==
Winston by-election, 2039 	Winston by-election, 2039 	Winston by-election, 2039 	Winston by-election, 2039 	Winston by-election, 2039 	Winston by-election, 2039
Party 	Party 	Candidate 	Votes 	% 	±%
 	Conservative 	Bruce Kerry 	28,289 	43.13 	–15.03
 	United 	Jennifer Yang 	26,486 	40.38 	+25.74
 	Liberal Democrats 	Joe Horn 	10,816 	16.49 	+14.71
Total formal votes 	Total formal votes 	Total formal votes 	65,591 	99.04 	+2.42
Informal votes 	Informal votes 	Informal votes 	638 	0.96 	–2.42
Turnout 	Turnout 	Turnout 	66,229 	92.68 	+3.81
Two-party-preferred result	Two-party-preferred result	Two-party-preferred result	Two-party-preferred result	Two-party-preferred result	Two-party-preferred result
 	Conservative 	Bruce Kerry 	34,311 	52.31 	–16.11
 	United 	Jennifer Yang 	31,280 	47.69 	+16.11
 	Conservative hold 	Conservative hold 	Swing 	–16.11