Visegrad-Rebellion (DJK95)

Following WW3 (2025-2032), the European allied powers tried to root out the authoritarianism and anti-democratic movement in Europe, which was partially responsible for European fraternization with the Revisionist Powers, while weakening Europe's unity. The attempt of enforcing the rule of law and implementing mechanisms to uphold it reignited tensions between the EU and the so called „Visegrad-states“ Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Because of the emergence of European military and political power after WW3, the EU proved to be more assertive and unwavering in its stance against the „V-4“, who tried to block any efforts of upholding democratic mechanisms for securing the rule of law, while also demanding Ukraine's expulsion out of the AUF because of Hungarian demands, as well as a continuation of anti.immigration policies. When the EU cut off funding for the V-4, Poland and Hungary took a more aggressive approach and started to harass EU traffic and trade, while creating a political gridlock in Brussels. The now called „Visegrad-Rebellion“ also caused new military tensions, when Hungary mobilized its forces as a show of strength against the EU, while also initiating a series of clashes with Ukraine and Romania over alleged human rights violations against ethnic Hungarians in both countries. Italy joined the „Visegrad-Resistance“ due to disputes over immigration and alleged Italian war crimes against migrants in the Mediterranean, leading Italy to harass maritime traffic as well. The Visegrad Rebellion also caused a new worsening of relations between the UK and the EU, due to British support for the V-4 against the EU as well as new aspirations of the UK to exit the AUF after WW3 in opposition of a unified European army beyond war-times. This desire to leave the alliance was later dubbed „AUFXIT“ in satirical reference to the Brexit. After a comparatively short AUF intervention against Hungary, as well as severe economic sanctions and blockades against the Visegrad states, the intense pressure on the right-Wing governments of the 4 Visegrad nations, as well as Italy grew to such an extent that democratic movements, under assistance from the EU and AUF, got enough public support to enable new elections that brought up more pro-EU governments on a temporary basis. Only Hungary remained belligerent to a certain degree. Tensions between the EU and the Visegrad-states re-emerged not long after the rebellion, due to a resurgence of anti-EU sentiment, resulting in the political crises that would ultimately culminate in WW4.
== 2033 ==
=== Europe after WW3: Rifts between East and West ===
With the end of the Rekjavik-Peace Conference and the wake of the Euro-American Split That would ultimately culminate further into the Second American Civil War, Europe, still being devastated by the destruction brought on upon it through WW3 began to focus on rebuilding the continent. The EU developed several programs aimed at rebuilding not only the physical but also the economic infrastructure of Europe, resulting in heated debates about how this could be accomplished, especially for the eastern european countries that were hit the most by WW3. Soon after the beginning of the „European-Reconstruction“ conferences, accusations of various eastern european nations became loud about the EU not intending to do enough for rebuilding their destroyed countries and instead being more concerned about the economic prosperity in central and Western Europe, which was inflamed by the announcement of EU representatives that there would be inner-european persecution of alleged collaborators of the Revisionist Powers, as well as a hard crackdown on any threats against the rule of law in Europe. Poland and Hungary accused the EU of trying to take control over the continent now that the war is over and claimed that Brussels seemingly intends to take the sovereignty away of nations that were already at odds with the EU before the war broke out. Other members of the V4 states joined in on the rejection of an EU-based persecution of war criminals and collaborators in Europe and instead argued in favor of an international investigation program spearheaded by the US, which sparked massive outcries in the remainder of the EU. During these heated debates, european intelligence began investigating the contacts between V4 representatives, namely from Hungary, and russian officials during WW3, especially since during the war, Hungarian president Viktor Órban openly advocated for peace in russian favor. And indeed, intelligence operatives from Germany, France, Spain and Romania gathered evidence that Hungary was in fact offered pieces of Ukrainian and even romanian territory with significant amounts of ethnic Hungarian population in return for rallying for peace terms that would be beneficial to Russias cause. When these reports became public, the Hungarians heavily denied these accusations and instead claimed that these were fabricated by the central and western EU members to get a reason for not supporting Hungary and other V4 states economically after the war. Conservative representatives all over the EU rallied behind Hungarys leadership, mostly due to many of them facing investigations for potential collusion and collaboration with Russia and China during WW3 themselves, creating additional political rifts in the already torn European political establishment. Additionally, the war and the ensuing devastation it brought upon large parts of the world resulted in new, massive waves of refugees coming from Africa and the Middle East towards Europe, in the hopes of prospering the the non-destroyed countries, far away from their own devastated and often times still unstable home nations. The growing influx of migrants arriving on the european continent once again rose the question of how the EU responds to these developments, while the V4 states, alongside EU members like Italy, Greece, Croatia and Austria already declared their unwillingness to take in larger amounts of refugees. The EU, as part of its „Rebuilding Europe“ initiative presented new initiatives for a more balanced distribution of migrants throughout the union, while its newfound confidence which stemmed from the foundation of the AUF and the emancipation from the US during the Euro-American Split, made it less willing to make concessions to resisting members and instead threatened sensitive consequences, should a member decide not to adhere to the initiative. This inflamed the already tense situation between the EU and various critical members, most notably the V4 states, while simultaneously the rifts between the EU and UK also began to re-open again over these controversies.
=== EU vs V4: The conservative revolt ===
Weeks passed and the situation between the EU and its most conservative members continued to sour, threatening the very unity of the institution. While most EU members agreed on the new initiative for distributing migrants across the union, as well as specific plans on how to patrol the still tense EU borders following WW3, the V4 states, most notably Hungary and Poland, refused to obey any such endeavor and instead proclaimed once again that they would not take in any refugees from non-European countries whatsoever. Poland went further than just rejecting the EU migrations proposal and began fortifying its borders in ways that were not coordinated with either the EU nor AUF. Poland began deploying not its regular border guard units alongside the most affected frontiers, but instead kept its military troops at the borders, including heavy armory, which raised the question of whether Poland intends to uphold newly formulated international law na dehumanizing rights when it comes to how to treat the incoming masses of refugees. These concerns were amplified when certain emergency mechanisms implemented by the polish government during WW3 became incorporated as permanent law following the re-election of the incumbent conservative administration, resulting in accusations from the EU that the polish leadership would once again undermine democratic aspects like the rule of law and the independence of courts. These developments were backed by most of the V4 states, while nations like Italy, Greece, Croatia, Austria and Bulgaria joined in on the rejection of the EU migration initiative. Hungary , in the wake of ongoing investigations into Hungarian collusion with Russia and other Revisionist Powers during WW3 went even a step further and declared it would leave EUROPOL , so that the EU investigators and intelligence services would supposedly have no jurisdiction in Hungary. Calls for cutting funding to the rebelling EU members became louder and were additionally exacerbated when the Second American Civil War fully engulfed the continental US. Poland and Hungary remained among the last few countries on the continent which still hosted American troops following the Euro-American Split, leading to accusations of lacking loyalty towards the common cause of the EU and AUF. While most EU members condemned the republican insurgency in the US and called for an AUF assisted intervention on the behalf of the Democratic administration in Washington D.C., the representatives of the V4 states, alongside likeminded conservative nations, voted against such plans and instead even echoed several narratives of the Republican loyalist insurgency, drawing in much criticism from other members of the union. Following the resulting disputes and the ongoing tensions over the migration initiative and the post-WW3 investigations, the EU organized emergency negotiations with the representatives of the Visegrad group in hopes that these issues can be resolved in a way that wouldn’t put more stress on the already fragile and still war torn union. These negotiations however proved to be dead on arrival, due to attempts of the V4, namely Hungary and Poland to use these meetings to pressure the EU into concessions, using the migrants at their borders as human leverage to threaten the EU, should it not back down and give in into the demands of the V4. These demands on the other hand were seen by a large portion of the EU establishment as audacious, due to not only demanding to be excluded in any compulsory EU migrational initiatives, but also that the EU should demand reparations from Russia for the damage caused by WW3 under the threat of military action, should the Russians not comply. Poland, which felt threatened by Germanys newfound military strength and confidence, as well as its nuclear arsenal obtained following the Euro-American Split, also demanded that as part of restructuring Europes security landscape, that it should be able to obtain nuclear weapons of its own, which was heavily rejected out of fear of uncontrolled nuclear proliferation.
=== The Poland-Crisis: Tensions come to a head ===
With the positions of both sides being ironclad and no compromises being accepted by either party, tensions between the V4, most notably Hungary and Poland, and the EU remained on a volatile level. Due to the rejection of the V4 towards the EU‘s immigration initiative, the alleged collusion between V4 representatives and Russia during WW3, as well as accused polish democratic backsliding and hungarian military threats towards Ukraine, the EU decided to retaliate politically against the V4. As a result of the aforementioned transgressions, the EU announced a significant cut of fundings towards Poland, Hungary and to a lesser extent the Czech Republic and Slovakia. These cuts hit Poland and Hungary particularly hard, due to being among the biggest receivers of EU fundings even before WW3. V4 politicians were outraged by these penal measures and accused the EU of becoming a dictatorship aimed at controlling and oppressing those who criticize it. Massive anti-EU riots erupted all over eastern Central Europe, with the governments of the V4 announcing that they intend to fight back against „EU dictatorial tyranny“, as several hardliners put it.
Category:DJK95
Category:Geopolitics 2030s
Category:Geopolitics
Category:Scenario
Category:European Union
Category:Europe
Category:Politics
Category:Poland
Category:Hungary
Category:UK