2022 New York Gubernatorial Election (SophiaNyberg Scenario)

The 2022 New York Gubernatorial Election had a first round on November 8, 2022 and a second round on November 22, 2022. State representative and Populist Party nominee Mike Lawler defeated incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul in the second round in an unprecedented upset.
Lawler became the first Populist governor of New York.
== Background and Election Factors ==
Kathy Hochul became Governor of New York when Governor Andrew Cuomo resigned due to sexual allegations. Three months later, a judge on the New York Court of Appeals appointed by Cuomo, Michael Garcia, was assassinated by a Sanders supporter with domestic violence issues. Hochul proceeded to appoint a conservative judge with a history of ruling against unions to the court. Meanwhile, a political master in California, Leon Ford, decided to leave his own house to work to oust Hochul from the governorship due to this appointment. Ford contacted the office of Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis, and the intern at the office at that time forwarded the call to her. Thanks to Malliotakis, Ford left his house, and thanks to her connections, he met Lawler. Ford then proceeded to trick Hochul and her allies into implementing a two-round system in New York for gubernatorial elections, with the excuse of being a good system to stop an insurgent third party of winning and beating her. Ford then got Malliotakis to contact the leadership of the Populist Party, which had lots of supporters after helping to derail Trump in red states in the 2020 presidential election. 
Hochul got into another scandal when her appointed lieutenant governor, Brian Benjamin, was indicted on federal wire fraud and bribery charges and had to resign. Zeldin's lieutenant gubernatorial nominee, a NYPD officer named Allison Esposito, was gay. Hochul only attacked Zeldin at the only debate between her, Zeldin, and Lawler. This led to the Lawler campaign, led by Ford, making an advertisement on it. 
Due to Zeldin's lieutenant gubernatorial nominee, some members of the gay community voted for Zeldin in the first round, leading to Hochul falling 133 votes short of a majority. The Lawler campaign's advertisement on the debate attack led to many previously undecided and Zeldin voters moving to Lawler's side, thinking that he was the best person to beat Hochul. These two factors led to a second round between Hochul and Lawler.
After that, many high-profile Democratic politicians campaigned for Hochul. Governor Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, New York City mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa, New York City Council Candidate Donghui Zang, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, and Jack Ciatarrelli, the GOP nominee for Governor of New Jersey in 2021, campaigned frequently for Lawler. In the debate between Hochul and Lawler, he completely destroyed Hochul. After the debate, the Conservative Party of New York, which was previously an ally of Zeldin, supported Lawler, whereas the Working Families Party, which previously supported Hochul, refused to endorse anyone. 
In Schenectady County, the CEO of a small consulting company called Jahnel Group decided to declare November 22nd a day off, so that the employees of the company could vote. The company employees who went to vote favored Lawler, 56% to 44%. Three of those employees, nicknamed the "Lawler Three", decided the election. 
== Lawler Three ==
The Lawler Three decided to stay anonymous, however they did explain why they voted for Lawler. The first of the three stated that he voted for Lawler because of the rampant crime in New York, the second one voted for Lawler because of the Conservative party's endorsement, and the third because he was not supported by Ronna McDaniel.
== First Round Endorsements ==
=== Kathy Hochul ===
==== US Executive Branch Officials ====
* Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
==== US Senators ====
* Senator Kirsten Gilibrand
==== Statewide Officials ====
===== In New York =====
* Former Lieutenant Governor Brian Benjamin
* Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado
===== In Other States =====
* Governor of New Jersey Phil Murphy
* Governor of Connecticut Ned Lamont
* Governor of Pennsylvania Tom Wolf
==== Gubernatorial Candidates ====
* New York City Public Advocate and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Jumaane Williams
==== US Representatives ====
* Chair of the DCCC and Representative Sean Patrick Maloney
* Representative Carolyn Maloney
* Former Chair of the DCCC and Representative Steve Israel
* Chair of the House Democratic Caucus and Representative Hakeem Jeffries
==== Individuals ====
* Former President of the NAACP Hazel Nell Dukes
==== Organizations ====
* Democratic Governors Association 
* EMILY'S List
* Stonewall Democratic Club of New York
==== Unions ====
* New York AFL-CIO
==== Parties ====
* Working Families Party (First round only)
==== Newspapers ====
* The New York Times
* Newsday
=== Mike Lawler ===
==== US Presidents ====
* Former President George W. Bush (Republican)
==== US Executive Branch Officials ====
* Former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel (Republican)
* Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (Republican)
* Former EPA Administrator Christine Todd Whitman (Republican)
==== US Senators ====
* Former Senator Mark Kirk (Republican)
* Senator Angus King (Independent)
* Senator Susan Collins (Republican)
* Former Senator Joe Donnelly (Democratic)
* Former Senator Evan Bayh (Democratic)
* Former Senator Joe Lieberman (Independent)
* Former Senator Jay Rockefeller (Democratic)
==== Statewide Officials ====
* Governor John Bel Edwards
* Governor Andy Beshear
* Governor Mark Gordon (Republican)
*
* Governor Mike DeWine (Republican)
* Governor Eric Holcomb (Republican)
* Governor Phil Scott (Republican)
* Governor Brad Little (Republican)
* Governor Chris Sununu (Republican)
* Governor Brian Kemp (Republican)
* Former Governor Dave Freudenthal
* Former Governor Ralph Northam (Democratic)
==== US Representatives ====
* Representative Thomas Suozzi (Democratic)
* Representative Jared Golden (Democratic)
* Representative Josh Gottheimer (Democratic)
* Representative Nancy Mace (Republican)
* Representative Kurt Schrader (Democratic)
==== Organizations ====
* The Lincoln Project (First round only)
* Democrats for Democracy PAC
=== Lee Zeldin ===
==== US Presidents ====
* Former President Donald Trump
==== US Executive Branch Officials ====
* Former Vice President Mike Pence
* Former Ambassador to Israel David Friedman
* Former Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell
* Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
* Former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci
==== US Representatives ====
* Former Representative Tulsi Gabbard (Independent)
* Former Representative Newt Gingrich
* Representative Jim Jordan
* Representative Elise Stefanik
* Representative Steve Scalise
==== Gubernatorial candidates ====
* Westchester County Executive and 2014 and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Rob Astorino
* 2022 gubernatorial candidate Andrew Giuliani
* 2022 gubernatorial candidate Harry Wilson
==== Individuals ====
* 2022 congressional candidate Harriet Hageman
* Chair of the New York Republican Party Nick Langworthy
* Singer Naked Cowboy
==== Organizations ====
* New York Federation of College Republicans
* New York State Rifle and Pistol Association
==== Unions ====
* International Union of Operating Engineers Local 138
==== Parties ====
* New York Republican State Committee
* Conservative Party of New York State
==== Newspapers ====
* National Review
== Additional Second Round Endorsements ==
=== Mike Lawler ===
==== US Executive Branch Officials ====
* Former Vice President Mike Pence (Republican, previously endorsed Lee Zeldin)
* Former Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos (Republican)
* Former Inspector General Michael Atkinson (Independent)
* Former Chief of Staff to the First Lady Stephanie Grisham (Republican)
* Former Ambassador to Northern Ireland Mick Mulvaney (Republican)
* Former Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors Tyler Godspeed (Republican)
* Former Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft (Republican)
==== US Senators ====
* Former Senator Bill Frist (Republican)
==== US Representatives ====
* Representative Liz Cheney
==== Statewide Officials ====
* Governor Glenn Youngkin (Republican)
* Governor Ron DeSantis (Republican)
==== Gubernatorial Candidates ====
* 2021 gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciatarelli (Republican)
* 2010 gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino (Republican)
* 2022 gubernatorial candidate Harry Wilson (Republican, previously endorsed Lee Zeldin)
==== Individuals ====
* Singer Naked Cowboy (previously endorsed Lee Zeldin)
* Chair of the New York Republican Party Nick Langworthy (previously endorsed Lee Zeldin)
* Retired police detective Bo Dietl (Independent)
* Rabbi Shmuel Kamenetsky (Independent)
* 2022 senatorial candidate Joe Pinion (Republican)
* 2021 New York City Council candidate Donghui Zang (Democratic)
* 2021 New York City mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa (Republican)
* Republican consultant Jeff Roe
==== Organizations ====
* Better America PAC
* Fraternal Order of Police
* New Era Democrats
==== Unions ====
* Laborers' Local 1298
* Nassau County Police Detectives Association
* Nassau County Police Superior Officers Association
* New York City Sergeants Benevolent Association
* New York State Law Enforcement Officers Union
* Police Conference of New York
* Suffolk County Police Benevolent Association
==== Parties ====
* New York Republican State Committee 
* Conservative Party of New York State
* Forward Party
* Reform Party of the United States
* Alliance Party
==== Newspapers ====
* National Review (previously endorsed Lee Zeldin)
* The Jewish Press
* The Wall Street Journal
* Vos Iz Neias?
=== Kathy Hochul ===
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