2024 United States Senate Elections (Dark Brandon)

This prediction series started in May 2023. Any change in predictions will show date of update. I will try and avoid making changes even if they turn out to be wrong, for the sake of seeing how well I predict the future. Hopefully I do well! Please feel free to comment on your thoughts of how accurate these predictions are, whether you're a Democrat or Republican. Hearing and interacting with other people's opinions makes me happy!
The 2024 United States Senate elections were held on November 5, 2024, concurrently with elections at the federal, state and local level, including the 2024 United States presidential election, in which incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris defeated former President Donald Trump, and the 2024 House elections. Regularly scheduled elections were held for 34 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, the winners of which will serve six-year terms in the U.S. Congress from January 3, 2025, to January 3, 2031, starting with the 119th United States Congress. One special election was also held to complete an unexpired term ending January 3, 2027. Despite facing a difficult map, Senate Democrats held onto their control of the Senate.
In the 2018 United States Senate elections, the last regularly scheduled elections for Class 1 Senate seats, the Republicans won a net of two seats from the Democrats and increase their majority, but quickly lost it in the 2020 election, and lost an additional seat in 2022. Before the 2024 election, Republicans held 49 seats, Democrats held 48 seats, and independents caucusing with the Democrats held three seats, which were all up for re-election. Including the special election in Nebraska, Democrats defended 20 seats, independents 3, and Republicans 11.
While Democrats were placed on the defensive, with no Republican incumbents holding seats won by any Democratic nominee for President since 2012, and three Democrats holding seats won by Donald Trump twice, and Democratic incumbents holding many states won barely by Joe Biden. However, all Democratic incumbents in states won by Joe Biden in 2024 won re-election. Among the three Democratic incumbents in Trump states, Joe Manchin was the only one to not seek re-election, with Glenn Elliott by incumbent Governor of West Virginia Jim Justice. On the other hand, Democrats Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana both narrowly won re-election. In Arizona, independent senator Kyrsten Sinema lost re-election, coming in third place to Representative Ruben Gallego, who defeated second-place finisher Kari Lake. In Texas, a state won by Joe Biden against Trump in a slight upset, Senator Ted Cruz narrowly lost re-election to Representative Colin Allred. No other Republican-held seat flipped to the Democrats. 
This election gave Democrats, when including Independents, a 51-49 majority in the Senate. While this was the same partisan makeup as the result of the 2022 midterm elections, two senators who had been opposed to repealing the legislative filibuster, Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin, were no longer a part of Democrats' majority. In 2025, Democrats in the Senate successfully invoked the "nuclear option" to pass the Abortion Rights Act, effectively repealing Senate Rule XII (the 60-vote threshold to invoke cloture), by a vote of 51-49. Since 2025, the Senate is now on equal footing with the United States House of Representatives as a majoritarian body.
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==Partisan composition==
All 33 Class 3 senators were up for election in 2024; prior to Election Day, Class 1 consisted of 20 Democrats, 10 Republicans, and 3 independents caucusing with Democrats. Additionally, a special election was held for a Class 2 seat in Nebraska. Of the senators not up for election, 28 were Democrats and 38 were Republicans.
Elections analysts have noted that, in recent cycles, partisanship in Senate elections has much more closely matched partisanship in presidential elections, and the number of senators representing states won recently by presidential candidates of the opposite party has dwindled. This pattern mostly held true in 2024, with the only two senate races being won by the opposite party of the victorious candidate in that same state being Ohio and Montana. All other Senate races, whether flips or holds, were won by the same party as the winner of that state's presidential election.
==Arizona==
The 2024 Senate election in Arizona was a three-way contest between United States Representative Ruben Gallego, former television news anchor Kari Lake, and incumbent Independent United States senator, Kyrsten Sinema, who ran as a member of the No Labels Party.
Sinema had been elected narrowly in 2018 as a Democrat, but switched parties to become an Independent in 2022, after it became obvious she would lose in her own primary. 
Gallego won the election, with Lake coming in 2nd place, and Sinema coming in 3rd.
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==California==
The 2024 California Senate race was fought between U.S. Representative Katie Porter and U.S. Representative Adam Schiff. Incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein retired, opening the seat in a solidly blue state. California election law stipulates that the two highest finishing candidates in the primary, regardless of party, advance to the general election. 
Katie Porter won the general election narrowly, with most analysts pointing out that Schiff's extreme unpopularity with Republican voters likely cost him in the general, with conservative voters voting for Porter to tank Schiff out of partisan spite.
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==Connecticut==
The 2024 Connecticut Senate race was fought between incumbent Democrat Chris Murphy and Republican Susan Patricelli Regan. Chris Murphy easily won re-election.
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==Delaware==
Incumbent Democrat Tom Carper decided to retire instead of seeking re-election to a fifth term.
Lisa Blunt Rochester, Delaware's at-large congresswoman, ran for the open seat and easily won against her Republican opponent, Lauren Witzke.
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==Florida==
The 2024 Florida Senate election was fought between incumbent Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Shevrin Jones, a state senator. Scott won re-election, but underperformed former President Donald Trump's performance in the concurrent presidential election in the state of Florida.
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==Hawaii==
The 2024 Hawaii senate election was fought between incumbent Democrat Mazie Hirono and Republican Timothy Dalhouse. Hirono easily won re-election.
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==Indiana==
Incumbent Senator Mike Braun retired to run for Governor of Indiana.
The 2024 Indiana Senate election was fought between Republican U.S. Representative Jim Banks and Democratic mayor of Indianapolis, Jim Hogsett. Banks won the general election with ease.
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==Maine==
The 2024 Maine Senate election was a three-way race fought between incumbent Independent Senator (caucusing with Democrats) Angus King, Republican Ed Thelander, and Democrat David Costello.
Maine has used ranked-choice voting for all elections, starting in 2018. Angus King finished with over 50% of first-choice votes and won the election outright, negating the need for an instant-runoff.
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==Maryland==
Incumbent Maryland senator Ben Cardin decide to retire after serving 3 terms.
The 2024 Maryland Senate election was fought between incumbent Democratic U.S. representative Jaime Raskin and businessman Christopher Puleo. Raskin easily won the general election.
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==Massachusetts==
The 2024 Massachusetts Senate election was fought between incumbent Democrat Elizabeth Warren and Republican businessman, Peter de Silva. Warren easily won re-election.
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==Michigan==
Incumbent Democratic senator Debbie Stabenow decided to retire instead of running for re-election.
The 2024 Michigan Senate election was fought between Democratic U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin and Michigan Board of Education member Republican Nikki Snyder. Slotkin won the election relatively comfortably for swing-state standads, by roughly the same margin as Joe Biden's victory over Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential election in the state of Michigan.
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==Minnesota==
The 2024 Minnesota Senate election was fought between incumbent Democrat Amy Klobuchar and Republican Scott Jensen, a former state senator. Klobuchar easily won re-election, over-performing Joe Biden's performance in the state of Minnesota against Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential election.
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==Mississippi==
The 2024 Mississippi Senate election was fought between incumbent Republican Roger Wicker and Democrat Ty Pinkins. Wicker easily won re-election.
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==Missouri==
The 2024 Missouri Senate election was fought between incumbent Republican Josh Hawley and Democrat Lucas Kunce. Hawley easily won re-election.
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==Montana==
The 2024 Montana Senate election was fought between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen. 
Although former President Donald Trump won the state of Montana by double digits, Jon Tester was able to narrowly win re-election to a fourth term. This was one of the closest elections in the 2024 cycle.
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==Nebraska (regular)==
The regularly scheduled 2024 Nebraska Senate race was fought between incumbent Republican Deb Fischer and Democrat Alisha Shelton. Fischer easily won re-election.
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==Nebraska (special)==
In 2023, incumbent Nebraska senator Ben Sasse resigned to become the President of the University of Florida. Recently retired Nebraska governor Pete Ricketts was appointed to replace Sasse.
The 2024 special Senate election in Nebraska was fought between Ricketts and Alisha Shelton. Ricketts easily won the election for the remaining 2 years of his term.
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==Nevada==
The 2024 Nevada Senate race was fought between incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen and Republican Jim Marchant, an election denier who lost the election for Nevada Attorney General in 2022.
Rosen won re-election narrowly, essentially matching Joe Biden's margin of victory against former President Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential election within Nevada.
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==New Jersey==
The 2024 New Jersey Senate election was fought between incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez and Republican Mike Testa. Menendez won re-election, but under-performed Joe Biden's performance in the state, likely due to his multiple corruption scandals in the past.
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==New Mexico==
The 2024 New Mexico Senate election was fought between incumbent Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Rebecca Dow. Heinrich won re-election easily.
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==New York==
The 2024 New York Senate election was fought between incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gilibrand and Republican Lee Zeldin, a former U.S representative and candidate for Governor of New York in 2022. Gilibrand won re-election easily.
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==North Dakota==
The 2024 North Dakota Senate election was fought between incumbent Republican Kevin Cramer and Democrat Kristin Hedger. Cramer won re-election easily.
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==Ohio==
The 2024 Ohio Senate election was fought between incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Warren Davidson, a U.S. representative from Ohio. 
Brown had remained popular in Ohio despite the state's increasing tilt towards Republicans in the Trump era. Davidson had also positioned himself far to the right on many issues, including abortion and false accusations of fraud in the 2020 election.
Brown narrowly won re-election, despite former President Trump's victory in the state of Ohio by roughly 6 percentage points.
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==Pennsylvania==
The 2024 Pennsylvania Senate election was fought between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Doug Mastriano, a former state senator who unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022.
Bob Casey easily won re-election against Mastriano, who was deeply unpopular for some of his most extreme views, including his attendance at the January 6th Capitol riot. Casey greatly over-performed Joe Biden's victory over Donald Trump in the state of Pennsylvania.
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==Rhode Island==
The 2024 Rhode Island Senate election was fought between incumbent Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse and Republican Raymond McKay. Whitehouse easily won re-election.
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==Tennessee==
The 2024 Tennessee Senate election was fought between incumbent Republican Marsha Blackburn and Democrat Gloria Johnson, well-known for being one of the "Tennessee Three." Blackburn won re-election easily.
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==Texas==
The 2024 Texas Senate election was fought between incumbent Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Colin Allred, a U.S. Representative from the Dallas metro area.
While Cruz had originally been expected to win the race, Allred closed the gap in the late weeks of the campaign, feeding off of Cruz's unpopularity due to his extreme views and his departure to Cancun during the 2021 Texas winter storm that killed hundreds in the state.
Joe Biden narrowly won Texas against Donald Trump in 2024, and carried Allred to victory. Allred narrowly over-performed Joe Biden's performance in Texas, but still only won the state by less than 1% of the vote. This was the closest race of the 2024 election cycle.
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==Utah==
Incumbent senator Mitt Romney declined to seek re-election to his seat, and Congressman John Curtis was nominated as the Republican nominee.
Curtis won easily in the general election against Democrat Kael Wilson.
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==Vermont==
The 2024 Vermont Senate election was fought between Independent (caucusing with Democrats) Bernie Sanders and Republican Ericka Bundy Redi. Sanders easily won re-election.
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==Virginia==
The 2024 Virginia Senate race was fought between incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Hung Cao. Kaine won re-election easily.
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==Washington==
The 2024 Washington Senate election was fought between incumbent Democrat Maria Cantwell and Republican Tiffany Smiley. Cantwell easily won re-election.
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==West Virginia==
The 2024 West Virginia Senate race was fought between incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin and Republican Governor of West Virginia Jim Justice. 
Joe Machin had won three races for his seat in 2010, 2012, and 2018. However, he had become deeply unpopular since his help in passing the Inflation Reduction Act. Justice defeated Manchin easily, finally flipping the seat to the Republicans.
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==Wisconsin==
The 2024 Wisconsin Senate election was fought between incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany.
Despite the state being close in the presidential election, Baldwin over-performed Joe Biden's victory in Wisconsin over Trump by about 3 points, winning her election relatively comfortably. 
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==Wyoming==
The 2024 Wyoming Senate race was fought between incumbent Republican John Barrasso and Democrat Theresa Livingston. Barrasso won re-election with ease.
Category:Elections
Category:Senate Elections
Category:Chuck Schumer
Category:Mitch McConnell
Category:Politics
Category:2024
Category:2024 election
Category:Dark Brandon