Enderronian federal election, 1986

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1982 ← 	18 October 1986 	18 October 1986 	→ 1990
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All 125 seats in the Enderronian Parliament63 seats needed for a majority	All 125 seats in the Enderronian Parliament63 seats needed for a majority	All 125 seats in the Enderronian Parliament63 seats needed for a majority	All 125 seats in the Enderronian Parliament63 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 	13,200,028 (94.36%) ( 3.12pp) 	13,200,028 (94.36%) ( 3.12pp) 	13,200,028 (94.36%) ( 3.12pp)
 	 	 	
 	width="25%" 	width="25%" 	width="25%"
Leader 	Mike Behrens 	James Thorpe 	Jonathan Bowen
Party 	United 	Social Democrats 	Conservative
Leader since 	27 March 1979 	12 November 1979 	14 July 1982
Leader's seat 	Wolseley (NS) 	Kingscliffe (JZ) 	Won Carlisle (FL)
Last election 	45 seats, 30.48% 	70 seats, 43.96% 	0 seats, 3.11%
Seats won 	61 	54 	5
Seat change 	16 	16 	5
Popular vote 	4,151,409 	4,251,729 	1,818,964
Percentage 	31.45% 	32.21% 	13.78%
Swing 	0.97pp 	11.75pp 	10.67pp
TPP 	51.56% 	48.44% 	
TPP swing 	4.59pp 	4.59pp 	
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Leader 	Michael Paxton 	Adam Steggall 	Susan Liew
Party 	National 	Liberal Democrats 	Progressive
Leader since 	21 October 1985 	4 July 1985 	4 July 1985
Leader's seat 	Greenberg (GB) 	Contested Kingston (PL) (lost) 	Did not contest
Last election 	8 seats, 8.12% 	New party 	New party
Seats won 	4 	1 	0
Seat change 	4 	New party 	New party
Popular vote 	656,041 	1,201,203 	679,801
Percentage 	4.97% 	9.10% 	5.15%
Swing 	3.15pp 	New party 	New party
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Winning party by electorate 	Winning party by electorate 	Winning party by electorate 	Winning party by electorate
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Prime Minister before election 	Prime Minister before election 	Elected Prime Minister 	Elected Prime Minister
James ThorpeSocial Democrats 	James ThorpeSocial Democrats 	Mike BehrensUnited 	Mike BehrensUnited
A federal election was held in Enderron on Saturday 18 October 1986 to elect the 125 members of the 11th Enderronian Parliament.
The result was a hung parliament, with the opposition United Party, led by Mike Behrens, winning a plurality over the incumbent governing Social Democratic Party, led by Prime Minister James Thorpe.
There was a significant sentiment against the two major parties, the Social Democrats and United, at this election. As such, the combined vote share of the two parties fell sharply, dropping below 70 percent for the first time in modern Enderronian history. Conversely, there was a large rise in votes for minor parties, particularly the Conservative Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Progressive Party (the latter two being the successors to the New Democratic Party, which was dissolved in 1985). The Conservatives, led by Jonathan Bowen, supplanted the Enderron National Party as the third-largest party in parliament, and became the first minor party to win more than 10 percent of the vote since the New Democratic Party did so in the 1946 federal election.
The Social Democratic Party, which had been in power since 1970, lost its majority, suffering a 12 percent swing in the popular vote and losing 16 seats. The government had been seen as increasingly tired and unfocused, and had been behind in opinion polling for more than two years. Meanwhile, the United Party was able to gain 16 seats on the back of preference flows from the Conservatives, Nationals and Liberal Democrats, despite making a gain of less than 1 percent in the popular vote.
In the end, the United Party won 61 seats, falling two seats short of a majority, while the Social Democrats won 54 seats. The Conservative Party, having won 5 seats, found itself in a pivotal role in the formation of a new government.
After a week of negotiations, United was able to form a coalition government with the Conservatives, with Jonathan Bowen becoming Deputy Prime Minister. This election thus marked the end of 16 years of continuous Social Democratic government, and the only time between 1970 and 2002 where the Social Democrats did not win a majority of seats, and thus the only time in that 32-year period where the party did not form government. With the most-voted party (the Social Democrats) winning just 32.2 percent of the vote, this remains the most fragmented election result in Enderron in terms of vote share.
==Results==
↓ 	↓ 	↓ 	↓
54 	5 	5 	61
Social Democrats	Oth	Con	United
 	 	 	 	 	 	
Party 	Party 	Votes 	% 	Swing 	Seats 	+/−
 	Social Democrats 	4,251,729 	32.21 	11.75 	54 	16
 	United 	4,151,409 	31.45 	0.97 	61 	16
 	Conservative 	1,818,964 	13.78 	10.67 	5 	5
 	Liberal Democrats 	1,201,203 	9.10 	New 	1 	New
 	Progressive 	679,801 	5.15 	3.65 	0 	0
 	National 	656,041 	4.97 	3.15 	4 	4
 	Other 	440,881 	3.34 	2.19 	0 	2
Two-party-preferred vote	Two-party-preferred vote	Two-party-preferred vote	Two-party-preferred vote	Two-party-preferred vote	Two-party-preferred vote	Two-party-preferred vote
 	United 	6,805,934 	51.56 	4.59 	61 	16
 	Social Democrats 	6,394,094 	48.44 	4.59 	54 	16
Total 	Total 	13,200,028 	100 	 	125 	
===Results by prefecture===
Party 	Party 	Party 	PL	WE	NS	CO	TJ	WS	JZ	FL	LS	MA	KA	NC	LR	SY	SA	GB 	Total
rowspan="2"	United 	Seats: 	11	7 	8 	8 	4 	8 	1 	4 	3 	1 	2 	1 	2 	1 	0 	0 	61
Vote: 	United 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	31.45	
rowspan="2"	Social Democrats 	Seats: 	8 	11	6 	3 	8 	2 	7 	0 	3 	1 	1 	2 	0 	1 	1 	0 	54
Vote: 	Social Democrats 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	32.21	
rowspan="2"	Conservative 	Seats: 	1 	0 	0 	1 	0 	0 	0 	2 	0 	0 	0 	0 	1 	0 	0 	0 	5
Vote: 	Conservative 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	13.78	
rowspan="2"	National 	Seats: 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	2 	1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	1 	4
Vote: 	National 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	4.97 	
rowspan="2"	Liberal Democrats	Seats: 	0 	1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	1
Vote: 	Liberal Democrats	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	9.10 	
 	Other 	Vote: 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	8.49
Total seats	Total seats 	Total seats	20	19	14	12	12	10	8 	6 	6 	4 	4 	3 	3 	2 	1 	1 	125
===Results by region===
Party 	Party 	Party 	Central	West	East	North	Total
rowspan="2"	United 	Seats: 	29 	20 	7 	5 	61
Vote: 	United 	 	 	 	 	31.45	
rowspan="2"	Social Democrats 	Seats: 	32 	5 	12 	5 	54
Vote: 	Social Democrats 	 	 	 	 	32.21	
rowspan="2"	Conservative 	Seats: 	2 	3 	0 	0 	5
Vote: 	Conservative 	 	 	 	 	13.78	
rowspan="2"	National 	Seats: 	0 	0 	2 	2 	4
Vote: 	National 	 	 	 	 	4.97 	
rowspan="2"	Liberal Democrats	Seats: 	1 	0 	0 	0 	1
Vote: 	Liberal Democrats	 	 	 	 	9.10 	
 	Other 	Vote: 	 	 	 	 	8.49
Total seats	Total seats 	Total seats	64 	28 	21 	12 	125
===Seats changing hands===
Seat 	Pre-1986	Pre-1986 	Pre-1986 	Pre-1986	Swing	Post-1986	Post-1986 	Post-1986 	Post-1986
Seat 	Party 	Party 	Member 	Margin 	Swing	Margin 	Member 	Party 	Party
Aston, PL 	 	Independent 	Frank Blackburn 	6.43 	N/A 	4.72 	Dennis Cameron 	Conservative 	
Carlisle, FL 	 	United 	Jeremy Kohler 	5.58 	6.99 	1.41 	Jonathan Bowen 	Conservative 	
Cheltenham, CO 	 	Social Democrats	Doug Caines 	1.94 	5.25 	3.31 	Mitchell Dawe 	United 	
Cook, PL 	 	Social Democrats	Colin McDonough 	0.54 	3.24 	2.70 	Nicholas Dam 	United 	
Duyfken, SY 	 	Social Democrats	Sean Tsang 	2.18 	10.13	7.95 	Pablo Bautista Suarez	United 	
Fairfax, FL 	 	National 	Richard Cowan 	5.39 	7.55 	2.16 	Ronald Zimmerman 	United 	
Fairfield, NC 	 	Social Democrats	Benjamin Leitner 	8.39 	9.88 	1.49 	Adam Hutchinson 	United 	
Hannigan, WE 	 	Social Democrats	Sam Donovan 	2.39 	14.09	11.70 	Ted Holland 	United 	
Heathbridge, WE 	 	Independent 	Maxwell Lee 	0.03 	4.52 	4.49 	Kim Hernandez 	Social Democrats 	
Hexham, PL 	 	Social Democrats	Tom Johnston 	4.07 	6.31 	2.24 	Wayne Bradbury 	United 	
Jingcheng, LS 	 	National 	Nicholas Rewell 	1.85 	6.28 	4.43 	Barry Marsden 	United 	
Kingston, PL 	 	Social Democrats	Jeff Brown 	4.74 	5.07 	0.33 	J. K. Parkes 	United 	
Kitaoka, TJ 	 	Social Democrats	Jack Saito 	2.33 	4.76 	2.43 	Linus Dang 	United 	
Lyndhurst, PL 	 	Social Democrats	Nancy Ziegler 	6.44 	11.31	4.87 	Barry Cott 	United 	
Macquarie, KA 	 	Social Democrats	Douglas Chang 	4.93 	8.57 	3.64 	Kenneth Rishworth 	United 	
Minato, TJ 	 	Tojima People's*	Makoto Tahara 	3.98 	N/A 	2.25 	Seiko Yoshida-Walsh 	Social Democrats 	
Mitchell, FL 	 	Social Democrats	Jasper Neal 	4.71 	16.98	12.27 	Kay Noonan 	Conservative 	
Mizuoka, KA 	 	Social Democrats	Paul Jovanovski 	12.92 	14.16	1.24 	Elliot Pegg 	United 	
Mount Gilbert, MA 	 	Social Democrats	Russ Jackson 	1.42 	3.54 	2.12 	Eric Wojtczak 	National 	
Normanhurst, CO 	 	Social Democrats	Sid Forster 	1.37 	4.98 	3.61 	Clark Buckman 	United 	
O'Malley, MA 	 	National 	Gerald Cameron 	2.69 	3.79 	1.10 	Jade Whittington 	United 	
Oxley, CO 	 	United 	Wally Koepke 	19.43 	N/A 	6.24 	Wally Koepke 	Conservative 	
Palmerston West, LS 	 	Social Democrats	Ray Sutton 	8.98 	11.82	2.84 	Steve Keplinger 	United 	
Rockingham Central, CO	 	Social Democrats	Phil Tandy 	8.10 	8.15 	0.05 	Brandon Wiles 	United 	
Sierra, SA 	 	National 	Darrell Dexter 	4.97 	6.84 	1.87 	Tash McKinley 	Social Democrats 	
Southcott, WE 	 	United 	notional – new seat	6.46 	7.66 	1.20 	Frank Nygaard 	Liberal Democrats	
Whetstone, WE 	 	Social Democrats	Rob Shadbolt 	11.93 	12.05	0.12 	Jack Sullivan 	United 	
Wollstonecraft, LR 	 	United 	Bill Teasley 	3.29 	5.95 	2.66 	Pat Landon 	Conservative 	
*Minato, TJ was won by Makoto Tahara of the Social Democratic Party at the previous election. Tahara left that party in 1984 and contested the 1986 election as a member of the Tojima People's Party.
*Mount Gilbert, MA, won by United at the previous election, was won by the Social Democrats in a 1985 by-election. The margin listed above is the by-election margin.
*Oxley, CO was won by Wally Koepke of the United Party at the previous election. Koepke left that party in 1986 and contested the 1986 election as a member of the Conservative Party.
==Background==
===Parties===
Name	Name 	Ideology 	Party leader 	Seats 	Seats
Name	Name 	Ideology 	Party leader 	1982 result	At dissolution
 	Social Democratic Party 	Social democracy 	James Thorpe 	/ 	/
 	United Party 	Conservative liberalism	Mike Behrens 	/ 	/
 	Enderron National Party 	Agrarianism 	Michael Paxton 	/ 	/
 	Conservative Party 	Conservatism 	Jonathan Bowen 	/ 	/
 	Tojima People's Party 	Tojiman localism 	Hideaki Takanaka	/ 	/
 	IndependentsIndependents who sat in Parliament as of the end of the parliamentary term were Frank Blackburn and Maxwell Lee.	– 	– 	/ 	/
==Pendulum==
UNITED SEATS (61) 	UNITED SEATS (61) 	UNITED SEATS (61)	UNITED SEATS (61)
Marginal 	Marginal 	Marginal 	Marginal
Rockingham Central (CO)	Brandon Wiles 	UP 	0.05
Whetstone (WE) 	Jack Sullivan 	UP 	0.12
Kingston (PL) 	J. K. Parkes 	UP 	0.33
Sunnyvale (WS) 	Pieter Hayden 	UP 	0.62
Palmerston East (LS) 	Mary Svensson 	UP 	0.96
O'Malley (MA) 	Jade Whittington 	UP 	1.10
Mizuoka (KA) 	Elliot Pegg 	UP 	1.24
Channel (PL) 	Neil Rothenberg 	UP 	1.39
Fairfield (NC) 	Adam Hutchinson 	UP 	1.49
Watford (PL) 	Anne Kempsey 	UP 	1.82
Fairfax (FL) 	Ronald Zimmerman 	UP 	2.16
Hexham (PL) 	Wayne Bradbury 	UP 	2.24
Kitaoka (TJ) 	Linus Dang 	UP 	2.43
Franklin (WE) 	Ron Tonkin 	UP 	2.63
Cook (PL) 	Nicholas Dam 	UP 	2.70
Palmerston West (LS) 	Steve Keplinger 	UP 	2.84
Gibson (PL) 	Kelvin Davidson 	UP 	3.25
Cheltenham (CO) 	Mitchell Dawe 	UP 	3.31
Hunter (LR) 	Frederick Bosman 	UP 	3.33
Tojima West (TJ) 	Rei Nagasawa 	UP 	3.43
Normanhurst (CO) 	Clark Buckman 	UP 	3.61
Macquarie (KA) 	Kenneth Rishworth 	UP 	3.64
Rockingham North (CO) 	Anthony Bailey 	UP 	4.09
Jingcheng (LS) 	Barry Marsden 	UP 	4.43
McLaughlin (LR) 	Bob Ridgeway 	UP 	4.86
Lyndhurst (NS) 	Barry Cott 	UP 	4.87
Warwick (FL) 	Peter Sellman 	UP 	5.76
Barris (WE) 	Kevin Everest 	UP 	5.95
Fairly safe 	Fairly safe 	Fairly safe 	Fairly safe
Simpson (CO) 	Margaret Weaver 	UP 	7.02
Johnson (PL) 	Jack Warren 	UP 	7.20
Berkeley (PL) 	Paul Everman 	UP 	7.38
Duyfken (SY) 	Pablo Bautista Suarez	UP 	7.95
Cowper (WS) 	Melissa Hartsuyker 	UP 	8.04
Spilner (WS) 	Harry Ingram 	UP 	8.24
Marshall Bay (CO) 	Ken Harding 	UP 	9.95
Safe 	Safe 	Safe 	Safe
Hacking (NS) 	Nigel Lethbridge 	UP 	10.29
Devon (PL) 	M. B. Sivakumar 	UP 	11.40
Hannigan (WE) 	Ted Holland 	UP 	11.70
Roscoe (WS) 	Colin Gonzo 	UP 	11.99
Jenkins (WS) 	Barry Coolidge 	UP 	12.33
Linden (WE) 	Roger Baker 	UP 	12.54
Epsom (NS) 	Len Severn 	UP 	13.17
Yamaguchi (TJ) 	Sarah Collignon 	UP 	13.41
Wolseley (NS) 	Mike Behrens 	UP 	13.77
Devereaux (PL) 	John Paul Hanson 	UP 	13.94
Rijkens (TJ) 	Tommy Hamilton 	UP 	13.95
Braddon (NS) 	Ben Newman 	UP 	14.19
Kingfisher (FL) 	George Reece 	UP 	16.17
Merewether (NS) 	Ed Tannen 	UP 	16.20
Orange (WS) 	Jeff McAllister 	UP 	17.78
Bayswater (WE) 	Spencer Fox 	UP 	18.96
Formosa (JZ) 	Andrew Quinton 	UP 	19.20
Very safe 	Very safe 	Very safe 	Very safe
Harrison (FL) 	Robert Shields 	UP 	20.04
Middle Range (WS) 	Nate Garrett 	UP 	21.84
Kennedy (WS) 	Clive Dobson 	UP 	22.30
Brighton (WE) 	Christopher Gallagher	UP 	23.46
Epping (PL) 	Trent Fairweather 	UP 	23.73
Rock Valley (NS) 	Rupert Clarke 	UP 	24.29
Double Bay (NS) 	Rosemary Kirk 	UP 	25.21
Mayfair (CO) 	Ed Calderon 	UP 	25.98
Tregear (CO) 	Shirley Swanson 	UP 	27.50
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC SEATS (54)	SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC SEATS (54)	SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC SEATS (54)	SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC SEATS (54)
Marginal 	Marginal 	Marginal 	Marginal
Rockingham South (CO) 	David Paterson 	SDP 	0.06
Nishihama (TJ) 	Craig Taggart 	SDP 	0.12
Newton (WE) 	Geoff De Bruyn 	SDP 	0.24
Nanhai (PL) 	Rick Knight 	SDP 	0.59
Wellington (WE) 	Juliet Cleveland 	SDP 	0.68
Jackson (WE) 	Rick Clarkson 	SDP 	1.11
Eltham (WE) 	Amanda Jackson 	SDP 	1.22
Brooklyn (JZ) 	Tommy Walters 	SDP 	1.68
Sierra (SA) 	Tash McKinley 	SDP 	1.87
Hamilton (WS) 	Liam De Araujo 	SDP 	2.03
Edison (WE) 	Kristina Sanders 	SDP 	2.18
Minato (TJ) 	Seiko Yoshida-Walsh 	SDP 	2.25
Grey (NS) 	Sam Kerry 	SDP 	2.27
Stewart (PL) 	Luke Jeffrey 	SDP 	2.82
Torrens (WE) 	Richard Gaiser 	SDP 	2.93
Meiling Bay (JZ) 	Frank Wilson 	SDP 	3.21
Durston (TJ) 	Charles Moriyama 	SDP 	3.36
Endeavour (CO) 	Henry Melkert 	SDP 	3.61
Parkes (JZ) 	Steve Hall 	SDP 	3.66
Leightonfield (NS) 	Michael Warner 	SDP 	3.72
Hayakita (TJ) 	Melvin Ybarra 	SDP 	3.77
Taylor (PL) 	Brendan Mulligan 	SDP 	4.13
Forsythia (NS) 	Debbie Amos 	SDP 	4.33
Heathbridge (WE) 	Kim Hernandez 	SDP 	4.49
Karburgh (NC) 	Frank Chittenden 	SDP 	4.68
Coburn (NS) 	David Scotch 	SDP 	4.78
Tanshui (JZ) 	Leonard Lee 	SDP 	5.16
Woodleigh (NS) 	Aaron Pearson 	SDP 	5.39
Fairly safe 	Fairly safe 	Fairly safe 	Fairly safe
Nanshan (LS) 	Pauline McCarras 	SDP 	6.26
Douglas (PL) 	Martha Holliday 	SDP 	6.29
Cunningham (SY) 	Earl Ousley 	SDP 	6.43
Bexley (WE) 	Margaret Lyons 	SDP 	6.63
Chung'an (LS) 	Andy Tao 	SDP 	7.71
Anderson (WE) 	Marcel Wu 	SDP 	7.78
Rosslea (JZ) 	Helen Vandenberg 	SDP 	8.57
Monash (NS) 	Michelle Jowett 	SDP 	9.01
Matsunaga (TJ) 	Ichiro Matsuno 	SDP 	9.19
St Claire (PL) 	Richard Hart 	SDP 	9.65
Nottingham (MA) 	Arnold Vanderkaap 	SDP 	9.85
Safe 	Safe 	Safe 	Safe
Lewisham (PL) 	Julie Tassell 	SDP 	10.02
Harvey (TJ) 	Nick Giannakopoulos 	SDP 	10.05
Longshan West (LS) 	Woodrow Sharpe 	SDP 	10.16
Wentworth (WE) 	Altonia Keys 	SDP 	10.57
Lynn (PL) 	Lionel Wicks 	SDP 	11.11
Kingscliffe (JZ) 	James Thorpe 	SDP 	11.49
Taralga (KA) 	Bryan Heath 	SDP 	12.46
Shirakawa South (TJ) 	Jim Halston 	SDP 	12.99
Dover (NC) 	Alex Dos Santos 	SDP 	14.85
Denison (JZ) 	Anton Amalfi 	SDP 	15.58
Reedijk (CO) 	Taylor Colbeck 	SDP 	16.72
Shirakawa Central (TJ) 	Shiro Masaki 	SDP 	17.12
Port William (WS) 	Jung-soo Martin Song 	SDP 	18.70
Kensington (WE) 	Sian O'Dwyer 	SDP 	19.24
Very safe 	Very safe 	Very safe 	Very safe
Victoria (PL) 	Sue Sanford 	SDP 	22.28
CROSSBENCH SEATS (10) 	 	 	
Lakeside (KA) 	Mark Barnes 	ENP 	0.93 v SDP
Southcott (WE) 	Frank Nygaard 	LDP 	1.20 v UP
Carlisle (FL) 	Jonathan Bowen 	CON 	1.41 v UP
Mount Gilbert (MA) 	Eric Wojtczak 	ENP 	2.12 v SDP
Wollstonecraft (LR) 	Pat Landon 	CON 	2.66 v UP
Forrest (MA) 	Doug Fuller 	ENP 	3.96 v UP
Aston (PL) 	Dennis Cameron 	CON 	4.72 v UP
Oxley (CO) 	Wally Koepke 	CON 	6.24 v UP
Greenberg (GB) 	Michael Paxton 	ENP 	8.93 v UP
Mitchell (FL) 	Kay Noonan 	CON 	12.27 v SDP
==Opinion polling==
===Graphical summary===