2034 New York gubernatorial election (Jake's World)

The 2034 New York gubernatorial election took place on November 7th, 2034 to replace retiring incumbent governor, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Elise Stefanik, the appointed nominee after Tom Reed dropped out of the race was polling very poor against the incumbent Lt. governor, Alessandra Biaggi who easily won her primary.
This was the most expensive gubernatorial race in American history with the Stefanik campaign spending over 320 million and the Biaggi campaign had spent around 380 million dollars. The final result was one of the biggest upsets in the past 50 years in politics said many after Elise Stefanik won by less than 1%. This was marked as an upset due to polling having Biaggi above Stefanik by around 11-12 points and only 1 poll from the span of January 2033 - November 2034 had Stefanik above. This gubernatorial election was also the first election without alliances after a 2032 bill eliminated them from NY elections.
== Background ==
Incumbent 1 term Democratic governor, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had said in 2032 when asked if she would run for re-election as governor of New York she said "I am already considering it but won't go through with it". After her mother, Blanca had died she announced she wouldn't run for a 2nd term as New York governor despite her approval rating being at around 62%. 
In the primaries the incumbent Lt. Governor, Alessandra Biaggi easily won against former representative, Max Rose by over 20 points. In the Republican primary it was a very special case. Representative, Tom Reed had won the nomination in June but in August he dropped out of the race for governor leaving it for the New York GOP to decide the new candidate. They had decided to choose senator, Elise Stefanik to replace Reed. Going into the final stretch Biaggi was up by an average of 11-12 and even one B+ poll found Biaggi up by 20. This made many Democrats in the state not vote and with that it had a similar ending to the 2016 presidential election when in an upset a Republican won. 
== Democratic Primary ==
Just hours after Ocasio-Cortez announced retirement many were speculating on the new nominee. Many pointed to 3 names, Alessandria Biaggi, Kathleen Rice, and Jumaane Williams. Alessandria Biaggi, the incumbent Lt. Governor had announced her intention to run a month after Gov. Cortez announced she wouldn't run. Following her campaign announcement many speculated challengers had declined to run. In May 2033 former representative, Max Rose who had not ran for public office since he lost the 2020 NY-11 election had announced he would run for governor against Biaggi. Despite some primary polling showing a narrow race in the end it was Biaggi that won by a bigger than safe margin.
=== Candidates ===
==== Nominee ====
* Alessandra Biaggi, incumbent lieutenant governor of New York
==== Lost Nomination ====
* Max Rose, former representative from NY-11
==== Declined ====
* Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, incumbent governor of New York (Endorsed Biaggi)
*Kathleen Rice, attorney general of New York and former representative from NY-04
* Jumaane Williams, representative from NY-12 (Endorsed Biaggi, running for lieutenant governor)
* Antonio Delgado, former representative from NY-19 (Endorsed Biaggi, running for lieutenant governor)
*Hakeem Jeffries, former house minority leader and representative from NY-07
* Kirsten Gillibrand, former senator from New York
* Taylor Raynor, former representative from NY-3 and former mayor of Nassau (Endorsed Biaggi)
* Kathy Hochul, former lieutenant governor of New York (Endorsed Biaggi)
*Laura Curran, county executive of Nassau county (Endorsed Biaggi)
* Maya Wiley, former mayor of New York City (Endorsed Biaggi)
*Michael Gianaris, former member of the New York state senate (Endorsed Biaggi)
*Yvette Clarke, former representative from NY-09 (ran for lieutenant governor then withdrew)
* Kathy Sheehan, representative from NY-20 and former mayor of Albany
*Grace Meng, representative from NY-06
* Michaela Kennedy-Cuomo, daughter of former governor, Andrew Cuomo
==== Polling ====
Poll Source 	Date(s)
administered 	Sample
Size 	Margin
of Error 	Alessandra
Biaggi 	Max
Rose 	Other 	Undecided
Siena College 	June 1-6, 2034 	900 LV 	± 4.1% 	54% 	37% 	5% 	4%
Quinnipiac
University 	May 25-28, 2034 	785 LV 	± 6.5% 	55% 	33% 	3% 	9%
Siena College 	March 7-11, 2034 	1,100 LV 	± 3.1% 	38% 	37% 	2% 	23%
Marist College 	January 11-15, 2034 	700 LV 	± 4.2% 	40% 	38% 	1% 	21%
Siena College 	September 20-24, 2033 	800 LV 	± 3.8% 	48% 	35% 	1% 	16%
Zogby Analytics 	May 10-16, 2033 	670 LV 	± 5.0% 	59% 	11% 	3% 	27%
Max Rose announces run 	Max Rose announces run 	Max Rose announces run 	Max Rose announces run 	Max Rose announces run 	Max Rose announces run 	Max Rose announces run 	Max Rose announces run
Alessandra Biaggi announces run	Alessandra Biaggi announces run	Alessandra Biaggi announces run	Alessandra Biaggi announces run	Alessandra Biaggi announces run	Alessandra Biaggi announces run	Alessandra Biaggi announces run	Alessandra Biaggi announces run
==== Results ====
Democratic primary results
Party 	Candidates 	Votes 	%
Democratic 	Alessandra Biaggi	1,363,874	64.8%
Democratic 	Max Rose 	740,870 	35.2%
Total Votes	Total Votes 	2,104,745	100%
=== Lieutenant Governor ===
==== Nominee ====
* Jumaane Williams, representative from NY-12
==== Lost Nomination ====
* Antonio Delgado, former representative from NY-19
==== Withdrew ====
* Yvette Clarke, former representative from NY-09
==== Results ====
Representative Jumaane Williams defeated Antonio Delgado in the Democratic primary.
Democratic primary results
Party 	Candidates 	Votes 	%
Democratic 	Jumaane Williams	902,825 	50.35%
Democratic 	Antonio Delgado 	890,274 	49.65%
Total Votes	Total Votes 	1,793,100	100%
== Republican primary ==
Tom Reed, a representative from New York had jumped into the primary days after Alessandra Biaggi announced her run for governor. The only challengers Reed had in the primary was the former mayor of Dunkirk, Andy Goodell and state assemblywoman, Kim Chae-Young. On June 16th, Reed easily won the primary by over 30 points and polling was actually narrow between Biaggi and Reed until a major event took place. On August 3rd the attorney general of New York, Philip Ramos had released evidence showing Reed had embezzled an estimated thousands of dollars from a business he had worked at. On August 5th, Reed had announced he would be dropping out of the race for governor which would leave the New York GOP to decide a new candidate. On August 11th, it was announced that former representative and incumbent senator, Elise Stefanik would be the replacement candidate for Reed.
=== Candidates ===
==== Nominee ====
* Tom Reed, representative from NY-21 (withdrawn)
==== Lost Nomination ====
* Andy Goodell, former mayor of Dunkirk
* Kim Chae-Young, assemblywoman
==== Withdrawn ====
* Andrew Garbarino, representative from NY-2
* Jim Gerring, nominee for NY-17 in 2030 and nominee for state senate in 2028
==== Declined ====
* Lee Zeldin, New York state comptroller, former representative from NY-1 and nominee for governor of New York in 2022 (running for for lieutenant governor)
* Marc Molinaro, representative from NY-19
* Chris Gibson, former representative from NY-20 (ran for lieutenant governor before his death on February 8th, 2034)
* Henry Wilson, businessman
==== Results ====
Republican primary results
Party 	Candidates 	Votes 	%
Republican 	Tom Reed 	926,420 	60.15%
Republican 	Andy Goodell 	448,193 	29.10%
Republican 	Kim Chae-Young	165,569 	10.75%
Total Votes	Total Votes 	1,540,184	100%
=== Lieutenant Governor ===
=== Nominee ===
* Lee Zeldin, New York state comptroller, former representative from NY-1 and nominee for governor of New York in 2022
==== Lost Nomination ====
* Rob Astorino, incumbent Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, former county executive of Westchester county and nominee for governor in 2014
* Nick Langworthy, former chair of the NY republican party and nominee for U.S senate in 2022
==== Died ====
* Chris Gibson, former representative from NY-20 (died February 8th, 2034)
==== Declined ====
* Rob Ortt, former state senator and candidate for U.S senate in 2030
==== Results ====
New York state comptroller, Lee Zeldin defeated Rob Astorino and Nick Langworthy in the Republican lt. governor primary.
Republican primary results
Party 	Candidates 	Votes 	%
Republican 	Lee Zeldin 	662,944 	44.7%
Republican 	Rob Astorino 	645,145 	43.5%
Republican 	Nick Langworthy	175,005 	11.8%
Total Votes	Total Votes 	1,483,094	100%
== Libertarian Nominee ==
On June 10th, 2033 the 2028 Libertarian nominee and 2016 Libertarian vice presidential nominee runner-up, Larry Sharpe announced his run for governor shortly after Max Rose announced his campaign. During the campaign after facing an unopposed primary he ran off not being a mainstream candidate. He claimed that Stefanik was too conservative and Biaggi was too liberal and that he'd be the best option. On average Sharpe was polling an average of 5-6 points which was one of the best polling for a Libertarian nominee for governor since the 2024 Indiana gubernatorial race. At one of his highest points in polling he was at 12% in August 2034. Despite his moderate appeal a poll in October 2034 showed that he had more of a younger liberal appeal which would've likely gone for Biaggi if he wasn't in the race. In the election with him being the only 3rd party candidate he got 5.6% of the vote which was the best 3rd party finish in New York since the 2026 gubernatorial race. After the election some Biaggi supporters claimed that Sharpe was a spoiler and in Westchester county (a county with around 400k people) the Biaggi campaign had sued and alleged that many votes for Sharpe were supposed to go for Biaggi but the lawsuit failed. This would be the last time that Sharpe ran for any public office.
== General election ==
=== Predictions ===
Source 	Ranking 	As of
The Cook Political Report 	Safe D 	November 7, 2034
Sabato's Crystal Ball 	Safe D 	November 7, 2034
Rothenberg Political Report	Safe D 	November 7, 2034
Real Clear Politics 	Likely D	November 7, 2034
Rasmussen Reports 	Likely D	November 7, 2034
538 	Safe D 	November 7, 2034
=== Polling ===
Poll Source 	Date(s)
administered	Sample
Size	Margin
of Error	Alessandra
Biaggi	Elise
Stefanik	Larry
Sharpe	Undecided
Siena College 	November 4-7, 2034 	710 LV	±3.5%	52% 	40% 	5% 	3%
CBS News/NYT 	November 1-4, 2034 	600 RV	±4.1%	53% 	39% 	6% 	2%
Zogby Analytics 	October 21-25, 2034 	800 RV	±5.0%	50% 	42% 	4% 	4%
Marist College 	October 20-23, 2034 	600 LV	±3.7%	54% 	34% 	7% 	5%
Rasmussen Reports	October 3-6, 2034 	580 RV	±4.0%	43.4%	43.6%	5.0%	8.0%
Quinnipiac
University	September 15-20, 2034	600 LV	±5.6%	45% 	39% 	4% 	12%
Marist College 	September 2-6, 2034 	800 RV	±3.3%	42% 	34% 	9% 	15%
Siena College 	August 25-30, 2034 	780 RV	±2.5%	40% 	36% 	11% 	13%
538 Polling 	August 14-17, 2034 	400 LV	±4.7%	41% 	36% 	10% 	13%
Marist College 	August 5-8, 2034 	540 LV	±3.4%	42% 	34% 	7% 	17%
Siena College 	July 13-17, 2034 	380 RV	±2.1%	45% 	35% 	4% 	16%
CBS News/NYT 	June 8-15, 2034 	400 LV	±4.2%	43% 	31% 	- 	26%
Marist College 	May 3-7, 2034 	600 LV	±3.3%	44% 	24% 	- 	32%
=== Results ===
New York gubernatorial election, 2034
Party 	Candidate 	Votes 	% 	±%
Republican 	Elise Stefanik/Lee Zeldin 	1,820,673	47.3% 	+14.5%
Democratic 	Alessandra Biaggi/Jumaane Williams	1,812,973	47.1% 	-16.4%
Libertarian	Larry Sharpe/Stephanie Miner 	215,555 	5.6% 	+4.5%
Total Votes	Total Votes 	3,849,201	100.0%	N/A
== Stefanik v. Biaggi SCOTUS case ==
On November 15th, 2034, the day that the AP called the race for the Stefanik/Zeldin ticket the Biaggi campaign had claimed they wouldn't concede and would take it to the courts. Despite many failed attempts at first there was one case that truly could've changed the results. Since the results were so narrow out of 3.8 million votes with the race only being decided by exactly 7,700 votes if there was any number over 7.7k votes found for Biaggi it would've changed the results. On December 4th, the Biaggi campaign found 9,248 votes which if they were counted would've caused a win by 1,548 votes. All of these votes were found in Washington county which ironically was Stefanik's home county. She took it to the NY supreme court which just a few months ago in September was packed by Gov. Cortez. The case had heard argument's on December 28th. Despite a Democratic majority in the court (6-4) it ended up being an historic tie. In a revote Stefanik had won the case in a vote of 6-4 which meant 2 liberal justices had flipped. Later on that day Jumaane Williams had conceded on the ticket but Biaggi hadn't and still claimed the evidence. On January 1st, 2035 is when Stefanik was sworn in as governor but the day after the Biaggi campaign found more evidence of fraud in counties. She had claimed that members of the Green-Wood Cemetery in Brooklyn were voting for Stefanik. She still had held onto the 9,248 votes and took it back to the NY state courts. Shortly before the case the newly elected Gov. Stefanik had reversed former Gov. Cortez's court packing and it went back to a conservative majority. With the new court her case was denied and many had called for her to concede. Feeling very confident about fraud she took it to SCOTUS which had a conservative majority but she believed she could flip the more moderate conservative judges. This time they allowed argument's on the case and they took place on March 6th, 2035 which was over 2 months after Stefanik took office. On April 8th, 2035 SCOTUS had decided and they had declined the Biaggi campaign's fraud allegations by 1 judge vote. The following day on April 9th Biaggi had conceded. Many still claim that Stefanik was a false governor and even a false president. Stefanik, who was elected president in 2040 had mostly ran off WW3 and her time as governor of New York which was approved of heavily at the time. After this election Biaggi had announced her retirement from politics saying, "For the past 2 years I have been working on this campaign and have been fighting for you. After our loss in the courts and my concession I am not running for any public office in New York for a significant amount of time. I wish Gov. Stefanik good luck in her job for the next 4 years."
== Farther Aftermath ==
Due to the fact that Stefanik was a sitting senator and became governor of New York, it had left a special election for senate. The special election, that was held in late August was a Democratic gain and was likely that due to president Nikki Haley's falling approvals in office. However, during the vacancy governor Stefanik had appointed Tom Reed to fill the seat following a pardon she conducted on him. He would run for the election but lose the own primary to Andrew Garbarino who would go on and lose the general election to Antonio Delgado by 11 points.
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