2022 Texas gubernatorial election (Porvenir)

The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election was held on 8 November, 2022. U.S Representative and Democratic nominee Joaquín Castro defeated incumbent Governor and Republican candidate Greg Abbott in one of the greatest upsets of the cycle.
Abbott had struggled due to his handling of the COVID-19 plague and the impact of the 2019-2021 Financial Crisis on Texas' economy.
Castro became the first Hispanic Governor of Texas in what was considered a monumental victory for both the Second Chicano Movement and the Second Progressive Era.
==Background==
Greg Abbott had a unique experience in terms of public opinion of his management of Austin. After handily defeating pro-choice activist and Texas State Senator Wendy Davis by 20 percentage points in 2014, Abbott enjoyed high approval ratings. In 2018, he defeated Latina former Dallas County sherrif Lupe Valdez by an also comfortable margin, yet Valdez posted the most sucessful outing of a Democratic candidate for Governor since Ann Richards was ousted from the Governor's Mansion in 1994.
By 2022, things had changed for Abbott to say the least. His approval ratings plummeted from a whopping 63% in early 2020 to 48% in June of that same year.https://thetexan.news/new-texas-poll-reveals-high-approval-rating-for-abbott-hegar-leading-anemic-senate-primary/#:~:text=Texas%20Governor%20Greg%20Abbott%20maintains%20an%20overall%20approval,relatively%20high%20approval%20among%20Democrats%20at%2043%20percent.https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gov-abbott-s-plummet-in-public-approval-depicted-in-yet-another-texas-poll/ar-BB1743E4 Texas faced one of the worst Coronavirus outbreaks of any state in the country that year, and the virus had also taken an indescribable toll on the state's economy. Abbott's cozy relationship with President Donald J. Trump, once a necessity in formerly deep-red Texas, had also returned to bite him as even Trump and Abbott's base of white baby-boomers had become disillusioned due to the pandemic. As such, Texas Democrats began plotting to field a candidate and seal Abbott's defeat as early as 2020.https://wacotrib.com/news/state-and-regional/spurred-by-gov-greg-abbotts-coronavirus-handling-democratic-strategists-launch-pac-to-defeat-him-in/article_ccf9df5e-996d-507f-8dd7-e6385d40e236.html
Congressman Joaquín Castro, twin brother of former U.S HUD Secretary and former San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro had planned to challenge Abbott in 2018 should his brother opt out of running for President.https://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/24/castro-julian-joaquin-texas-241946 As Julián did decide to run, Joaquin instead worked on his brother's campaign. In 2022, with no presidential election in the way, Joaquín declared his candidacy in 2021.
== Candidates ==
===Democratic Party===
Democratic candidates
* Joaquín Castro, U.S Representative from San Antonio (Nominee)
* Beto O'Rourke, former U.S Representative from El Paso
* Lupe Valdez, former Sheriff of Dallas County and 2018 nominee
* Trey Martinez Fischer, State Representative from San Antonio (withdrew)
JoaquinCastro.jpg|U.S Representative Joaquín Castro of San Antonio (Nominee)
Beto.jpeg|Former U.S Representative Beto O'Rourke from El Paso
LupeValdez.jpg|Former Sheriff Lupe Valdez from Dallas
TreyMartinezFischer.jpg|State Representative Trey Martinez Fischer of San Antonio
Despite Castro's splash of an entrance in Summer 2021, the Democratic primary was nonetheless compeittive, with a group of high profile Democrats running in hopes of knocking off the vulnerable Governor.
Emerging as Castro's greatest primary rival, former presidential candidate and congressman Beto O'Rourke announced later in 2021. O'Rourke during his 2018 U.S Senate campaign had initially attempted to portray himself as a "Berniecrat" in the same vein as New York congressional candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. As the race drew to a climax however, O'Rourke backed off most of his progressive positions most notably Medicare For All. When O'Rourke sought the presidency in 2020, he maintained his shift on the issues with the notable exception of calling for the mandatory seizure of automatic weapons, declaring during a debate "hell yes we're going to take your AR-15, your AK-47..." Once more, now seeking the highest statewide office in Texas, O'Rourke positioned himself as the centrist juxtaposed to Castro's progressive.
Aside from Castro and O'Rourke, San Antonio state representative Trey Martinez Fischer and 2018 nominee Lupe Valdez also ran. Neither gained much traction, though Fischer was tipped by some outlets as a futhumb|right|250 px|O'Rourke's controversial automatic weapons commentture frontrunner for Governor or a federal office. Fischer ended up dropping out before primary day in order to seek reelection to his State House seat.
The candidates debated on one occasion at the University of Texas in Houston. Castro was considered to have won the debate by a large margin, as indicated by newspaper polls following the debate. As his brother had at the first presidential debate of 2020, Castro cornered O'Rourke on his immigration positions, highlighting O'Rourke's reticence towards the decriminalization of undocumented border crossings and painting himself as the candidate for migrants regardless of immigration status.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2r4lYNEN2xU Castro also embraced Medicare For All and his image as a leftist paladin.
Notably, despite Castro's left-wing platform, PACs connected to the campaign ran ads in rural Texas playing O'Rourke's automatic weapons comment on loop. When called out by O'Rourke on social media, Castro claimed no direct connection to the ads.
On 1 March, Castro defeated O'Rourke by ten points.
===Republican Party===
Republican candidates
*Greg Abbott, Governor from Austin (Nominee)
*Chad Prather, comedian from Burleson
*Martin Holsome, former City Councilman from Rusk
GregAbbott.jpg|Governor Greg Abbott from Austin (Nominee)
ChadPrather.png|Far-right comedian Chad Prather from Burleson
MartinHolsome.png|Former City Councilman from Rusk
Despite his dismal approval ratings, Abbott faced no serious opposition in renomination from the GOP. Alt-right comedian and Glenn Beck disciple Chad Prather ran but was considered paltry by all parties.
Abbott was easily renominated on 1 March.
==General election campaign==
Every major analyst organization declared the race a toss-up. Greg Abbott, once so popular he was considered a potential presidential hopeful,https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/Are-these-Texas-Republicans-potential-2024-15514735.php was at best an underdog in his own state.
Castro blasted Abbott the moment the primaries were over. He promised once elected, he would bring Texas' economy back from the brink and restore the state to her former glory. Castro surrogates came out in full force, including Julián Castro, RWBY actress Barbara Dunkelman and CEO Geoff Ramsey of RoosterTeeth, entertainer Selena Gomez, writer, businessman and future President Diego Braun, and actor Matthew McConaughey.
Abbott countered Castro's attacks by attempting to paint him as a radical socialist, an attack that backfired thanks to America's warmer attitude towards socialism that had developed in recent years. He also brought up his stay of execution in the case of later freed death row inmate Rodney Reed, though this was seen to have been minimal at best in its bolster of Abbott.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodney_Reed
==Results and impact==
On November 8, Castro defeated Abbott, dominating the Hispanic vote 70-30%. Castro's victory was noted for flipping counties that hadn't voted Democratic in a statewide race in years.
Castro's victory has been claimed to have been indicative of Texas' flip from GOP stronghold to swing state. Years afterward, Castro would be considered among the most popular Texas Governors in state history, who's administration was characterized by revolutionarily left-wing immigration policies. 
As Texas' Hispanic and Black populations only continued to grow exponentially, the state consistently elected Democratic and later Libertarian politicians at the state and presidential level.
==References==
Category:Scenario: Porvenir
Category:Elections (Porvenir)
Category:Texas
Category:US elections (gubernatorial)