TBntG-3 Chpt 49

=The Bull and the Genie=
==Chapter 49 - Book III - The Clan Invasion==
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===Aftershocks: 1===
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Mary rubbed her eyes. Whoever said that the war ended when people stopped shooting was an idiot. The big status board was color coded with stars, each one representing a planet of the former Combine.
 
Red were worlds where organized military resistance was going on. Yellows were organized irregular activity, Blues were regions of serious civil unrest, and Greens were… calm.
 
There were almost no red and green worlds, a smattering of yellows and everything else was blue.
 
Doesn't tell the whole story. Every red and yellow world also has serious civil unrest. 
 
"Our predictions for a the need for a third wave were optimistic," Edward Calderon said.
 
You think—Mary bit off what she was about to say. The leadership of the UMC, Star League and soon to be Union of Sovereign States were in the briefing room with her, mostly via HPG. "Freedom, formerly named Jinjiro's Rest." An image flipped up, lines of UMC troops with people throwing rocks, filth, and molotov cocktails at them as they escorted vehicles down the road.
 
"Black Dragon loyalists?" Melissa Steiner-Davion asked. She looked Exhausted. Victor and Katherine were in the field, and Hanse was off duty as much as possible, which rumor stated was when Melissa or one of his doctors physically locked him in a room away from paperwork. The younger kids didn't have the experience, political weight, or rep from making the clans pay to get her away from them… so running the largest state in humanspace was on Melissa's shoulders.
 
"That would be easier. No, these were people responding to the arrest and detention of suspected Black Dragon loyalists, on hearing that they were going to be tried instead of shot, hung, or just torn to shreds."
 
"And as far as ROM can tell, a good chunk of them are innocent." Will gestured at the board, the Primus frowning. "A lot of people are hurt and angry and could care less about innocent until proven guilty, and that doesn't include the ones doing it to get vengeance for the time their neighbor played their music too loud."
 
"Or arranging for property transfers," Thomas Marik said. "Since the Primus isn't the only one in the room to bring up obscure history, the Salem witch trials on Terra had a surprising correlation between accused witches and people who had property someone else wanted."
 
"Lastly," Mary said, glaring at the image before cutting it, "I bet some of the loudest voices to kill every last BDS member are BDS members."
 
"I won't take that bet," Edward said, his hologram flickering slightly. "Our predictions were based on being able to quickly bring some level of local law enforcement in but…"
 
"But we've been lagging." Mary shook her head. "Vetting them is hard. But that's not the only issue. In a lot of places, you put an ex-DC cop on the street and you'll find a lynching. Not just because they served the Black Dragons, but because they betrayed Theodore." And isn't that lovely. Both Liberals and hardcore anti-BDS conservatives hate the cops.
 
"Not to mention," Melissa said, "that their standards of training, in terms of human rights are far from what we would consider acceptable. We are training more, correct?"
 
"Yes, but that takes time, Archon, and we don't have time. A lot of our forces are having to deal with the local criminals to have any hope of distributing aid or maintaining civil order and I don't think anyone needs a diagram on how that could go terribly wrong."
 
"And local government?"
 
"Everyone had a positive duty to swear allegiance to the True Coordinator and First Lord, and a positive duty to inform on others. Of course, most of them are saying they didn't, and I bet most aren't, but everyone had to swear the oath down to the local garbage collector." Mary flipped another image up. "I have 12,000 qualified war crimes investigators on Luthien, who are responsible for providing assistance to occupying units, investigating war crimes scenes, interviewing suspects and victims… And this is all on the world of Luthien, which has a population of just over six billion people. Our ratios are just as bad on every other world."
 
And you're the one to blame. Mary had made her plans based on worst case assumptions, but those assumptions had fallen far short of the reality. It was like the police zone—if every local world had fallen into anarchy at the same time.
 
"And we have the refugee problem," Emma Centrella said.
 
"Forgive me," Mary said, and she didn't care that her voice wasn't very apologetic. "I think a better way to phrase it is that some people are taking advantage of the Combine's disorder to poach some of the best and brightest."
 
 "You would be right," Melissa said, "But isn't it better to offer them opportunities in lands where they could be free of any threat of Black Dragon supporters?"
 
"As you say," Mary said. The Federated Commonwealth was vetting refugees but accepting more than they turned away, sending them to worlds far from the Combine border, worlds with little personal experience of the Combine—and little in the way of educated populations. It was clear that Hanse and Melissa were making a bet that those refugees would eventually become the seeds of prosperous and loyal worlds. Hell, even my own nation is doing that. The Concordat, Capellen Confederation, Magistracy… Some were more accepting of common people than others, but all would roll out the red carpet for engineers, scientists, and doctors. Hell Mary, it's better than the alternative, and I certainly can't keep them safe.
 
"For now, it's not a problem," Will said. The Primus called up an image of Imperial City, block after block burned, little shelters springing up under the gloomy skies. "This is a problem, and to be honest, a lot of the civilian agencies in the third wave don't want to risk walking into a fight. So let's focus on that."
 
"Right. Which is why I want to provisionally allow all individuals below the provincial leadership level to remain in their positions."
 
"You just got finished, General Cheng, telling us that they had sworn an oath to the Black Dragon Society."
 
"Which everyone had to. Some of them are likely Black Dragon sympathizers. Others aren't, and I don't mean we will stop the investigations. But we cannot just occupy and take over because we simply don't have the bodies, and the full body of civil aid can't arrive until we have the civic situation locked down. I suggest that we start with allowing, provisionally, officials and officers who were serving before the coup to return, under our close supervision. We can assume that anyone appointed after the coup is tainted by association, if nothing else."
 
"I don't like it, but…" Melissa shook her head. "Katherine's missives have been waxing both eloquent and vulgar on the joy of being told to provide civil governance and occupational duties for a region with just over 1.7 million people in it, with a grand total, including second-line troops, of four regiments." She shook her head. "For now, we need to do something because if this situation spirals out of control… Very well. But I will direct our own intelligence agencies to provide as much help as possible to the UMC to vet these individuals—for their own benefit, if nothing else. Would the other states…"
 
"Yes," Edward said, followed by the others.
 
"We've got four of their leadership," Mary mentioned. "On Terra, so I assume the trials will start?"
 
"Not for some time." Will shook his head. "Finding qualified defense attorneys is going to be difficult."
 
"Downplay the first three," Emma said. "I want the fourth to be the face of the Black Dragons."
 
"The fellow who got caught in a Kimono?" Will smiled. "ROM is ahead of you, they're commissioning a line of "Honorable Dragon Dress Up Coward." A brief chortle went through the room, but now…
 
"And on to our current technical enemies." Mary gestured. "Clan forces are standing pat. They took a lot of losses on the new units from the Homeworlds, and intelligence indicates they're having issues with command, basically summed up as not everyone wants to change their ways, and a lot of their commanders have no experience with the new way of fighting." She gestured, and a broad map appeared. "The Clans have taken a number of worlds… But have also withdrawn from some, effectively leaving them to us." She gestured. "Itabaiana, for example, not much damage, not much of a BDS population, ideal for the Clans, but they're pulling their lines in and leaving it."
 
"Frederick?"
 
"It has his fingerprints of not holding onto something that would cost more than it's worth. There's also the problem that we think clan-occupied worlds and holdings may have lost as many as six hundred million to direct WMD attacks and God knows how many to indirect effects, something we haven't had to worry about." On the other hand, the Black Dragons never managed to get a foothold on any of those worlds, so you don't have our civil disorder problem… just more dead people than any nightmare should have. 
 
Mary called up other images. "Right now, much of the OZ shipping is being moved to support the worlds that took nuclear strikes, and as far as we can tell, he's also moving refugee populations out of the worst-hit worlds, moving them up to the Periphery border, or even beyond—" she gestured at the Chainelane Isles, the Oberon Confederation or the Clan Protectorate as it was now called, and further away the Hanseatic League. "—For much the same reason we are. Also, there's evidence from our intelligence that Frederick moved at least one division to assist the Star Adders in… resolving matters with the Hanseatic League." Mary shrugged. "Not much more, I'm afraid. But ROM believes…" She gestured at Will.
 
"The boys and girls have evidence that the League got nervous about the Clans and tried to put up some pirates to hit them," Will said. "Our analysts put things together, and there's a belief, not certain, that the League has been busy keeping any other powers in the region from rising by using raids and other such nasty methods, and when they pulled it on the Clans, Frederick found out and ah, as has been said, resolved matters. That division was mostly paroled Inner Sphere troops, mercenaries and other groups the Clans probably wouldn't trust on the front lines."
 
"That smart bastard," Melissa said. "He knows we cannot permit any Federated Commonwealth worlds to be occupied, but does anyone want to bet he'll have hard evidence of many dastardly raids launched against us from those worlds… which he has now neutralized?"
 
"Now, now," Will chided. "Star Captain Frederick is simply a low level officer who obediently carries out the commands of his superiors." Everyone chuckled. At the higher levels in the UMC, Frederick's ability to convince Clan leaders that he was following their orders, when their orders were exactly what he wanted to do was becoming something of a joke.
 
"More seriously," Mary said. "The OZ has its hands full with relief operations, for the nuked worlds." The amusement vanished as images pulled up. The ruins of cities, immense tent camps, a pit full of bodies, a clan mech unleashing flamers on them to cremate them as Elementals held crowds back. Walls with notes asking about the missing…
 
"They've granted unlimited SafeCon to any civilian or military relief units," Edward said. "Which has some precedent, but not much."
 
"And this makes them vulnerable," Emma said. She glanced around. "So let us address the beast in the room. Right now, much of their second and even first-line forces and transports are heavily involved in relief operations. Do we let this temporary truce continue, or do we take advantage."
 
"Let it continue," Mary said. "We are also suffering from manpower losses, due to the need to garrison the Combine. But in a year, I'll have three more corps ready to go, and by every estimate, the Clans are at their limit in terms of increasing their troop numbers. In fact, the longer this goes, the better positioned we are."
 
"And also, right now, the Clans are doing what we want civilized nations to do," Edward said. "Providing relief and aid to their own people, many of whom are Inner Sphere citizens. I will register my complete opposition by repaying that with a military attack."
 
"Ain't nobody shooting right now, and everyone has their hands full," Will said. "We've got a defacto truce here, moving towards a De Jure truce with the Nova Cats and Diamond Sharks, unless my boys are losing their touch."
 
Emma nodded. "We are in negotiations. Both of our groups agree that right now, trade between our states and their possessions of the former Circinus Federation, Lothian League, and Marian Hegemony, will benefit our people more than conflict will.
 
"Does the Free Worlds League agree?"
 
"Yes," Thomas nodded. "In truth, they don't have the power to threaten either us or the Federated Commonwealth, and they have much more to offer both us and their own people… to say nothing of depriving the main Clan forces of their assistance."
 
"And Jaw Jaw is better than War War," Will said, leaving some confused expressions in his wake. Mary knew the reference, but she figured the historical researchers that every house lord had, as a matter of self-defense with Will, would be getting a call.
 
"Is it?" Melissa said. "As I said, we will not tolerate any Federated Commonwealth worlds being held by the Clans."
 
"True," Will said. "But General Cheng, do you think any of the Clans believe they can win this war?"
 
"The smart ones? No. But the newcomers…maybe."
 
"Many of which have been winnowed by their own bad habits," Will mentioned. "And the smart ones, they have states now, born out of the bones of the Combine, and some of our less pleasant periphery states, and a resumption of war could cost them everything."
 
"You think they will surrender?"
 
"I think our study of Clan psychology indicates that as long as you can phrase it in the right way, they'll do a lot that they technically are never supposed to do. And as General Cheng points out, we have about a year before we can be ready for full scale conflict. Plenty of time to see if we can talk our way out of this."
 
Melissa leaned back then nodded. "So you are asking for a defensive hold for a year, to see if negotiations work."
 
"And to give us time to prepare if they don't," Will said.
 
"It would help with relief operations in the Combine…" Edward murmured.
 
"General Cheng, do you agree this will not hurt our defensive posture?"
 
"Yes. Our jump sensor net is almost complete, and it can already warn of us any attempt to gather an invasion force, and as I said, we'll have three fresh corps, and at least thirty more warships ready to go.
"We are all agreed then?"
 
Moments later, Mary was standing alone in the room, save for Will.
 
"Jaw Jaw?"
 
"Clans aren't stupid, General, but they have… a certain mindset that they've spend all their lives thinking through. Sort of like Comstar. But if we get lucky…who knows, maybe this war will go down in history as the one that ended with a whimper instead of a bang.
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