Query: Tackling Test Trade-offs from Design, Manufacturing to Market using Economic Modeling

Candidate papers:

abstract: This paper presents a general economic modeling methodology for digital semiconductor production test approaches. The methodology can be used to quantify trade offs and evaluate test approaches, including distributed test across test insertions, multi site test, on chip/off chip test trade offs and ATE architectural tradeoffs, with modeled cost contributions that include test time, die area, yield, time to market, and engineering effort. It allows one to forecast how those test approaches scale with technology progress. The economic models are modular and expandable. The modeling methodology will be illustrated on various test approaches.
author_names: Erik H Volkerink

Ajay Khoche

Linda A Kamas

Jochen Rivoir

Hans G Kerkhoff
title: Tackling test trade offs from design, manufacturing to market using economic modeling
venue: Proceedings International Test Conference 2001 (Cat. No.01CH37260)
year: 2001

abstract: Additive manufacturing has been presented as a novel and competitive method to achieve unprecedented part shapes and material complexities. Though this holds true in niche markets, the economic viability of additive manufacturing for large scale industrial production is still in question. Companies often struggle to justify their investment in additive manufacturing due to challenges in the integration of such technologies into mainstream production. First, most additive technologies exhibit a relatively low production rate when compared with traditional production processes. Second, there is a lack of robust design for additive manufacturing methods and tools that enable the leveraging of the attendant unique capabilities, including the ability to form organic part geometries and automated part consolidations. Third, there is a dearth of systematic part screening methods to evaluate manufacturability in additive manufacturing. To tackle the challenge of manufacturability evaluation, the present work proposes a novel approach derived from latent semantic analysis and dimensional analysis to evaluate parts and their production for a variety of selected metrics. The selected metrics serve as descriptors of design features and manufacturing functions, which are developed using functional modeling and dimensional analysis theory. Singular value decomposition and Euclidean distance measurement techniques are used to determine the relative manufacturability for a set of parts for a specified manufacturing process technology. The utility of the method is demonstrated for laser powder bed fusion technology. While demonstrated for additive manufacturing here, the developed approach can be expanded for any given set of manufacturing processes. Expansion of this systemic manufacturability analysis method can support part design decision making, process selection, and design and manufacturing optimization.
author_names: Eric Coatanea

Hari P N Nagarajan

Suraj Panicker

Romaric Prod'hon

Hossein Mokhtarian

Ananda Chakraborti

Henri Paris

Inigo F Ituarte

Karl R Haapala
title: Systematic manufacturability evaluation using dimensionless metrics and singular value decomposition: a case study for additive manufacturing
year: 2020

abstract: We present a Bayesian linear random effects' model for variation source identification in multistage manufacturing processes with a prior for sparse variance components. A modified horseshoe+ (HS+ prior is used to tackle high dimensional problems with low sample size and sparse variation sources. Furthermore, we introduce the informed HS+ (IHS+ prior that incorporates the likelihood information of possible variation sources. To estimate the variations from the IHS+ prior, a specially designed Gibbs sampler is established. Through a series of numerical experiments and case study, we showed that the proposed IHS+ outperforms the existing prior distributions when variation sources are sparse. Note to Practitioners Economic globalization brings intense competition among manufacturing enterprises. The key to success in this competitive climate is a prompt response to rapidly changing market demands with high quality products. Variation reduction is essential for improving process efficiency and product quality. Existing variation source identification approaches generally assume that the amount of measurement data is larger than that of the possible variation sources. We propose a method to identify the process variation sources with limited measurement capability. Moreover, we provide a tool to apply the domain knowledge on the possible variations in the manufacturing processes. The proposed method is flexible and can be adjusted according to the confidence level of the practitioners' empirical knowledge. The experiments have shown that our method possesses advantageous features in detecting variation sources and estimating the size of variations.
author_names: Jaesung Lee

Junbo Son

Shiyu Zhou

Yong Chen
title: Variation Source Identification in Manufacturing Processes Using Bayesian Approach With Sparse Variance Components Prior
venue: IEEE Transactions on Automation Science and Engineering
year: 2020

abstract: The most significant change in the world of space applications in the past decade is what might be called the small satellite revolution. This small satellite revolution is closely aligned with what is also now known as "Space 2.0" or "NewSpace." Probing discussions of this small satellite revolution and efforts to identify the prime factors that gave rise to this profound change in the space industry produce a number of diverse but convincing answers to what has produced this small satellite revolution. The drivers of this change, largely within the past decade, include (i) new types of flat panel user antennas that can electronically track low Earth orbit satellites in mega constellations; (ii) new more efficient ways to design and manufacture small satellites at much lower cost and sometimes with the use of off the shelf technology; (iii) new lower cost launchers that can deploy small satellites at much lower cost; (iv) advances in microelectronics, smaller but higher performance sensors, improved component design and manufacture, etc. (v) a rapid evolution of space services markets through the creation of new types of commercial satellite applications as well as expanded attempts to provide expanded space services to unserved markets in developing economies especially in the case of broadband Internet streaming and remote sensing; (vi) entrepreneurial business innovation in the space field, often driven by out of the box thinking from the world of computer services and social media; and (vii) new ways of financing small satellite startup ventures based on mechanism such as "Kickstarter," crowdsourcing, rounds of venture capital funding, and crossover investment in satellite applications from new industries such as from the world of computer and information services, investment banking, and other revenue sources. This Handbook of Small Satellite has sought to examine in some depth all of the sources of change that has produced the small satellite revolution. It has examined the technical, operational, financial, business, economic, regulatory, launcher, and institutional aspects of this important new world of space applications. Innovation is everywhere. There are actually contributions not only on the technical and operational side but from every other side of the business as well. Thus change has come from the small satellite business (i.e. new entries and startups that operate on completely different business models and timetables) There are key changes, from the world of manufacturing and design (i.e. additive manufacturing and use of off the shelf components) The small satellite business models have helped reinvent the world of space business and finance that is quite different from the approach taken by giant aerospace companies born of the so called world of the military industrial complex. Thus new business practices from the world of small satellites reflect many new patterns of thinking (i.e. new sources of financing and "clean enough rooms" This new type of entrepreneurial thinking has led to many new ideas such as about sparing philosophies and rapid prototyping and new generations of satellite design in months rather than years. Small satellites have, in short, shaken up thinking throughout the space industry, and change has percolated almost everywhere one might imagine and then some. This final chapter seeks to sum up the many areas of change and innovation that have been born of the new world of small satellites. Thus this concluding chapter is divided into discussing important new aspects of the world of small satellites that have permeated the entire space industry. These various sections that are drawn from the component parts of the book include defining the various types of small satellites; satellite technology; design and manufacturing; launch and deployment; operations and sparing philosophy; ground systems technology; business, financing, risk minimization, and insurance; and regulatory, safety, and institutional issues. This chapter concludes with some notes about the practical aspect that are available to readers of the handbook. This includes some guidance with regard to what detailed information is available concerning actual small satellite systems that have been deployed and projects to test new technology or to address space debris concerns. This includes some background with regard to information provided in Section 13 related to small satellite businesses, launch vehicle providers, small satellite networks deployed or planned to be deployed, registration processes related to small satellite systems, the UN sustainability guidelines, and how small satellite systems might relate to the meeting of these goals. Finally, this conclusion underscores how dynamic both the small satellite market and the launch vehicle systems newly designed to support the launch of small satellites is at this early stage of development. Bankruptcies, mergers, and other realignments are already happening. The COVID 19 will serve to accelerate downturns for small satellite ventures and new launch vehicle developments alike. OneWeb declared bankruptcy as of May2020, but bailout financing from the UK Government and financing from Indian mobile communications carrier Bharti Global has managed to rescue this system. 'New Space' ventures Speedcast Ltd. and Leosat plus launcher companies Vector and Firefly have all now gone bankrupt, and many other companies have indicated a pause or withdrawal from possible small satellite enterprises. And most of these negative impacts preceded the economic downturns that will be a consequence of the Covid 19 virus that most economists foresee as likely to generate a global economic recession. Some economists forecast that the downturn on space related ventures might be as much as a 30% reduction in new investment. Not until 2022 will the impact be clearly quantifiable.
author_names: Joseph N Pelton
title: Conclusion: The Many Technical, Market, Economic, and Practical Aspects of the World of Small Satellites
venue: Handbook of Small Satellites
year: 2020

abstract: Abstract This work aimed to develop eco friendly ceramic tiles employing by products of porcelain stoneware manufacturing as raw material, based on three technical economic premises: designing new products that respect the standards; avoid using by products as raw materials in successful commercial products; and carry out a complete mapping of operational conditions to enable employing mathematical modeling as product development methodology. Using a simplex centroid design for ternary mixtures, three kinds of porcelain stonewares by products were evaluated: sludge from the treatment of effluents, raw waste, and chamotte. The by products were investigated by thermogravimetric analysis, water absorption tests, mechanical properties as well as X ray diffraction and fluorescence under different compression and firing conditions. Mathematical models were generated capable of describing the experimental parameters behavior. These models showed that many kinds of products could achieve the water absorption ranges provided by normative requirement varying the operational conditions and the mass composition. Based on that, three kinds of ceramic tiles were reproduced in laboratory, each one according to mass formulation and operational conditions indicated by mathematical models: a wall tile, a floor tile, and a porcelain stoneware tile. Technical characteristics were controlled during laboratorial reproduction and, after that, their results were compared to normative requirements. All developed products met the normative requirement. The results confirmed that it is possible to develop ceramic tiles only employing by products of porcelain stoneware as raw material through mathematical modeling, respecting the proposed technical economic premises established for the present work.
author_names: Tiago Zanatta

Rozineide A Antunes Boca Santa

Natan Padoin

Cintia Soares

Humberto Gracher Riella
title: Eco friendly ceramic tiles: development based on technical and market demands
year: 2021

abstract: Abstract Recently, companies in emerging markets have implemented green supply chain management (GSCM) practices to tackle environmental issues. Drawing upon socio technical systems theory, this study develops a conceptual model suggesting a sequential effect between two distinct categories of GSCM practices, namely behavioral (human and soft aspects) and technical (tangible and hard aspects) practices, on performance. We employ structural equation modeling method to test hypotheses based on survey responses from 200 Chinese manufacturers. The categorization of behavioral and technical GSCM practices and research findings contribute to the GSCM literature. Statistical results demonstrate the complete mediation effect of technical GSCM practices (e.g. green design, green manufacturing and reverse logistics) on the relationship between behavioral GSCM practices (e.g. relationship with customers and suppliers) and organizational performance. Such results recommend that companies in emerging markets should highlight behavioral GSCM practices first and then implement necessary technical GSCM practices to reap economic, environmental and operational performance.
author_names: Junjun Liu

Houbao Hu

Xun Tong

Qinghua Zhu
title: Behavioral and technical perspectives of green supply chain management practices: Empirical evidence from an emerging market
year: 2020

abstract: This paper proposes a financial model to analyse the trade off between the monetary benefits of reliability improvement and the costs associated with the implementation of highly accelerated stress screening (HASS) in the context of manufacturing the automatic test equipment (ATE) HASS is a reliability screening process that has been widely used as an effective tool to eliminate infant mortality and thereby improve the product mean time between failures (MTBF) Furthermore, the feedback from HASS will help build quality into product and process design and thereby result in a more robust product design and production process leading to further improved MTBF. The cost saving from improved MTBF thus obtained, is then continuously compared with the total cost of HASS implementation. The manufacturer achieves the breakeven (or better returns) as long as the HASS cost is equal to (or less than) the cost savings from the HASSed products relative to the non HASSed products.
author_names: Balaji Janamanchi

Tongdan Jin
title: Reliability growth vs. HASS cost for product manufacturing with fast to market requirement
year: 2010

abstract: The effects of complexity on the manufacturing cost and time to market of discrete mechanical sys tems are difficult to predict. In this paper, the injection molding process is used to characterize the effects of parts and system complexity on life cycle costs and time to market. Models for predicting the effects of part complexity on mold tooling cost and lead time are developed from empirical data and implemented in a CAD modeler. A six part internal chassis is used to demonstrate the effects of parts consolidation on time to market and life cycle profit in a time sensitive market environment. ing used in the industry to bridge the gap between design and manufacturing. The application of these methodologies take designers through series of steps aimed at identifying parts of a designed product that can either be eliminated or combined with other parts. These procedures are carried out at the early stages of product design, when design changes incur the least cost. The remaining parts in the final product design are fewer and more complex. These complex parts are most often plastic injection molded whenever plastic properties meet the design specifications. Significant savings in product cost and reliability have been re ported in many industries from the application of these guidelines. This paper uses a test part to quantify the effects of part consolidation on time to market and life cycle profit. This research is motivated by the need to establish quantitative frameworks that can guide designers in the definition of economic levels of product consolidation under different internal product requirement and external market dynamics. SEARCH FOR QUANTITATIVE PRODUCT COMPLEXITY METRICS In the everyday use of the word "complexity" a part A may be considered more complex than B, if A is more difficult to design and manufacture than B. This subjective measure of complexity is however not sufficient for engineering analysis. Thus, our initial task was to find or define quantitative measures of com plexity that can be evaluated from a computer aided design (CAD) model at the early stages of the product life cycle. A review of how other researchers have measured the complexity of injection molded parts was carried out. These measures of complexity were found to either require the user's input of qualitative pa rameters values, such as low or high undercut complexity or may not produce unique results in all cases (Boothroyd, Dewhurst et al. 1994; Dixon and Poli 1995)
author_names: Adekunle A Fagade

David O Kazmer
title: MODELING THE EFFECTS OF COMPLEXITY ON MANUFACTURING COSTS AND TIME TO MARKET OF PLASTIC INJECTION MOLDED PRODUCTS
year: 1999

abstract: The purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship between five green practices and firm performance. In addition, this paper investigates the influence of each green practice on environmental performance, economic benefits, and economic costs.,Data were collected based on a cross sectional survey of owner/managers of 200 manufacturing SME firms in Uganda, Africa. SPSS was used to find descriptive means and test relationships between green practices and performance outcomes. Structural equation modelling was used to test for the influence of each practice on performance outcomes. The structural equation modelling results were obtained using the Covariance Based Structural Equation Modelling software. Results were compared with similar studies conducted in developing countries.,Different green practices affect different performance dimensions in different ways across different industries. For example, eco design and internal environmental management practices significantly influence environmental performance; green purchasing and internal environmental management practices significantly influence economic benefits; and internal environmental management practices affect economic costs. Overall internal environmental management is the key to positive outcomes across the three performance criteria. The authors show how the results obtained vary from similar studies conducted in developing countries and explain possible reasons for the difference.,Africa is a rapidly industrialising nation faced with difficult choices between economic growth and increased pollution. Because SMEs represent the majority of manufacturing firms, they are the main polluters. Hence, better understanding of the costs and benefits, both environmental and economic, is important to encourage green practice adoption for the betterment of community health and prosperity.,Despite numerous studies on the relationships between green practice adoption and performance outcomes, only a few studies include both economic costs and benefits in addition to environmental performance. The study covers five green supply chain practices, whereas most similar studies are limited in the number of practices examined. The African context is unique and important because industrial development and environmental protection goals are in conflict. Similar studies are predominant in an Asian context which is more developed than Africa. The findings and comparisons raise important questions for further research in relation to the roles of national regulations, geographical markets and industry types in furthering green practices in manufacturing.
author_names: Sheila Namagembe

Suzanne Ryan

Ramaswami Sridharan
title: Green supply chain practice adoption and firm performance: manufacturing SMEs in Uganda
year: 2019

abstract: As products become more complex and fast paced market conditions shorten product development lead times, design engineers are increasingly turning to modeling and simulation to reduce design cycle time, provide insight into complex problems, reduce costs and shorten both time to market and time to volume. Modeling and simulation can also help reduce the amount of testing that must be done during product development, reduce or replace the need for prototypes, and help achieve first pass success. Modeling and simulation have been common in the semiconductor field for years. At the system level, however, the tasks are more complex, the needs are more diverse, and commercial tools continue to lag far behind industry needs. Traditional modeling and simulation have been implemented in a limited manner for some time. However, infrastructure costs such as simulation tools and simulation experts have restricted their use primarily to larger companies and government laboratories. Rapidly shrinking cycle times, increased cost pressures and increased product complexity are making it almost impossible to rely solely on testing for development of a new product or process. Mastering the various types of simulation is, therefore, becoming a business imperative. Developing a model and then partially or fully verifying it can be used to study "what if" scenarios or to gain insight into complex phenomena much quicker that the different parameters can be tested. Problem diagnostics can be provided if products fail in qualification or problems occur in manufacturing lines. Design optimization can be performed to evaluate cost vs. performance trade offs. TABLE 1 summarizes some of the key challenges that modeling and simulation can help address. Looking ahead, modeling must shift from the component level to the system level. The focus must be broadened from traditional product design to include manufacturing processes and even the complete supply chain, including dissemination of simulation knowledge through the distributed global supply chain. This article looks at some of the areas where further development of modeling and simulation is needed. It includes information from the Modeling, Simulation and Design Tools chapter of the 2004 iNEMI (International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative) Roadmap, released earlier this year. Mastering The Basics Modeling and simulation must continue to address several issues in conventional design. For example, simulation of mechanical reliability remains a key focus for all product sectors, along with thermal and electrical simulation. Tools must also address new and emerging technologies, such as microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) system in package (SiP) technology and nanotechnology. Deployment of new materials and lead free assemblies is driving new demands for simulation techniques that will demonstrate reliability of these materials and of interconnects. At the same time, rapidly growing product sectors, such as medical electronics, demand ever higher levels of reliability, and "getting it right" is more important than ever. TABLE 2 (online) lists some of the emerging simulation demands being driven by various product sectors. Mechanical reliability analyses of packages are now routine, particularly thermo mechanical and mechanical analyses of assembly and manufacturing steps, but there are still some areas that require attention. These include interfacial delamination, moisture diffusion modeling, solder joint reliability
author_names: Robert C Pfahl
title: SIMULATION Modeling and Simulation at SYSTEM LEVEL Technology goes forward but modeling and simulation from design through manufacture face many bottlenecks
year: 2005