Query: MANAGING THROUGH CYCLES OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE

Candidate papers:

abstract: We are managing in what Peter Drucker has termed "the age of discontinuity." Examples of revolutionary technological changes that transform industries abound. Ceramic engine parts will replace metal engine parts in the next decade, thanks to their high strength to weight ratio and resistance to heat. Flat screen displays will obsolesce today's bulky cathode ray tubes in television screens and computer monitors. Optical disks capable of storing billions of bytes will supplant today's magnetic fixed disks for mass computer storage. Lithium batteries will supersede today's lead acid technology. It is precisely this sort of discontinuous change that brings about "creative destruction," the overturning of established industry structures which Schumpeter saw as the fundamental engine of capitalist progress. Building on a tradition extending back to the 1950s (see for example Strassmann, 1956, and Bright, 1964) Richard Foster (1986) argues that industry leaders become losers because they have difficulty managing technological discontinuities movements from one technology to another with inherently higher limits. Examples of creative destruction based on both product and process revolutions abound: the shift from vacuum tubes to semiconductors overturned the dominance of firms such as RCA and Sylvania; with the installation of new, energy saving cement manufacturing technology, eight of the ten largest American cement makers were acquired by foreign firms between 1973 and 1980. Managing through periods of upheaval and transformation requires that we develop a useful model of technological change. Are there predictable patterns of innovation that recur time and time again in industry after industry? Are there predictable consequences of technological discontinuities? Who pioneers discontinuous innovations. When do leaders become losers? Foster's depiction of technological progression through a series of S curves suggests that technological change follows a cyclical pattern. The best known model of technological change, the Abernathy/Utterback model, originally viewed technological progress as a single cycle, leading toward more process and less product innovation and culminating in the "productivity dilemma." Yet more recent updates of this framework in the early 1980s also conclude that technological change is cyclical "dematurity" can in effect set the clock back and return an industry from a "specific" to a "fluid" state. Our study of the entire history of three industries (see editorial box, next page) leads us to conclude that technology progresses in a series of cycles, hinging on technological discontinuities and the emergence of dominant designs. Here, we discuss: The cyclical nature of technological change. The influence of "competences." The empirical character of observed technology cycles. Who pioneers discontinuities and dominant designs. The process of "creative destruction." The implications of technology cycles for managers. Technology Cycles As Foster's notion of a series of S curves suggests, an industry evolves through a succession of technology cycles. Each cycle begins with a technological discontinuity. Discontinuities are breakthrough innovations that advance by an order of magnitude the technological state of the art which characterizes an industry. They are based on new technologies whose technical limits are inherently greater than those of the previous dominant technology, along economically relevant dimensions of merit. To illustrate, examine Figure 1(figure omitted) The manufacture of window glass has been characterized by three great discontinuities. In the 19th century, skilled artisans blew molten glass into long cylinders, which were cut with a wire and flattened into glass sheets. In 1903, the Lubbers process substituted an automatic blowing machine for the artisan. In 1917, the Colburn machine, which drew a continuous ribbon from a tank of molten glass, was introduced.
author_names: Philip Anderson

Michael L Tushman
title: Managing through Cycles of Technological Change
year: 1991

author_names: Debomalya Ghose
title: Managing through cycles of technological change
year: 2011

abstract: INTRODUCTION The emergence of global markets in the 1990s has brought about an astonishing rate of change in the product and process technology in many industries. The impact of this environmental uncertainty perhaps is felt most significantly by the materials manager, who must constantly be aware of shifts in material requirements, engineering changes, and availability of supply. This has resulted in a different type of approach to supply base management, in which sourcing strategies must be evaluated within the context of a product's changing life cycle characteristics. The concept of product life cycles is well known.|1^ Based on longitudinal analyses of growth and diffusion patterns, most products have been observed to proceed through four distinct phases: (1) product introduction, (2) growth, (3) maturity, and (4) decline. In general, the early stages of the life cycle are associated with a greater variety of features and less than perfect quality, while products in the growth, mature, and decline phases have progressively more tailored material specifications, with greater emphasis on unit cost reductions. In certain industries, however, there is evidence to suggest that these product life cycles do not fully capture the dynamics occurring at an individual component level. Moreover, the authors have observed through discussions with suppliers and purchasing managers in high tech industries that a series of smaller life cycles exist within the total product life cycle. There are referred to as "component life cycles." These cycles are different from product life cycles, in that their shape and duration are a function of the technological attributes of a given "functional block" contained within the larger product. The implications for supply chain management in dealing with these component life cycles is the subject of this article. In particular, the article provides a contingency planning framework for purchasing managers who must plan in advance for unexpected shifts in rates and patterns of demand for high tech components. FUNCTIONAL BLOCKS AND COMPONENT LIFE CYCLES High tech product innovations can be conceptualized as a set of smaller functional blocks, each of which consists of one or more components performing a specific function. This concept is illustrated in Figure 1. All the functional blocks interact as a whole to carry out the function of the entire product. An example of such a product is the personal computer (PC) which can be broken down into the "mother" board, the power source, the co processor, the hard drive, the keyboard, the monitor, and the frame. From a design perspective, these functional blocks provide various capabilities that the designer relies upon to execute the design intent. Component life cycles are closely tied to the notion of functional blocks. Moreover, the function served by a particular component, with respect to the performance specification required within its functional block, must be carefully monitored vis a vis competing technologies that may perform the same function but at a lower cost, with improved reliability, or with a higher level of performance. Referring to the previous example, in the early 1980s personal computers had 128K RAM chips, and subsequently went through a series of changes leading to today's computers, which often have more than 20 megabytes of RAM. Thus, as a particular functional block within an innovation evolves from the design stage to full production and through subsequent stages of the product life cycle, components can be replaced, simplified, or simply become obsolete as a result of changing technical specifications or new technological capability. COMPONENT LIFE CYCLE DRIVERS In general, there are five reasons for the replacement of a particular component within a functional block. In some cases, more than one criterion may have an effect on the replacement decision.
author_names: Robert B Handfield

Ronald T Pannesi
title: Managing Component Life Cycles in Dynamic Technological Environments
year: 1994

abstract: Increasingly companies are facing tough challenges due to fast paced technological developments, shortening product life cycles and new forms of business models. Therefore innovating is crucial for companies to stay competitive and enter new markets. Large corporations have difficulty in breaking silos and developing breakthrough innovations due to pressures in the form of financial performance and resistance to change. It seems that due to volatility of markets and technological developments, companies need to "join the race" in order to survive. For the purpose of benefitting the innovation space network companies can interact with external parties. Research shows that collaboration with external actors lead to sources of higher innovation performance. Nevertheless, the innovation process is very intricate as it involves many complex interactions and challenges. Innovation depends on people's expertise, capabilities and creative capacities. Companies need to recognize this and provide an environment that can foster innovation. Infineon Technologies AG Corporate Supply Chain Innovation department recognizes the need to innovate in a peripheries of its core technological developments. The department is involved in several co funded European projects which aim towards digitalization improvements. The main company's objective is to explore ways to better coordinate relationships between partners, to find ways to innovate and to foster knowledge management practices. Since the firm wants to improve its innovation performance, certain processes need to be develop to stimulate innovation. Infineon Technologies AG does not have processes for managing disruptive innovations therefore is in need to design a model that would enable the company to manage them, the main objective of this master thesis is to design: A model which prescribes processes for management of disruptive innovations between firms, on a case study of Infineon Technologies AG Corporate Supply Chain Innovation department. In order to reach objective of this master thesis, a following main research question is formulated: How to facilitate inter firm innovation management processes of disruptive innovations in the context of Infineon Technologies AG Corporate Supply Chain Innovation Department? The thesis project takes a Design Science Project approach and is divided into five phases: 1) research motivation 2) requirements definition through exploration of theoretical foundation 3) design and development of the artefact 4) demonstration of the artefact through validation and 5) evaluation and conclusion. The overall conclusion for this thesis is: in order to facilitate inter firm innovation management processes of disruptive innovations Infineon Technologies Corporate Supply Chain Innovation department should implement co innovation management practices. The co innovation model has a network structure composed of co creation, collaboration, innovation platform and convergence affordances. By expanding these elements to its practical implications, the company is able to implement a comprehensive and implementable solution. Scenario with actionable steps was developed as a recommendation for the company.
author_names: Monika Vu Kim
title: Managing disruptive innovations through co innovation processes: A case study at Infineon Technologies AG
year: 2019

abstract: Executive Overview High technology companies need an organizational design that enables rapid development and implementation of strategies in an environment of accelerated technological change, short product life cycles, and global competition. Executives should not just react to change but create changes that give a competitive advantage. In a dynamic, high tech environment, product development needs to be a continuous process in which products move along an assembly line of marketing functions. Criteria for terminating a product's life cycle are established before the product is introduced, to assure that resources are rapidly reallocated to better opportunities. To meet these organizational needs a double portfolio organizational design is proposed in which the CEO matches a portfolio of strategists to a portfolio of opportunities. While the design may seem radical, it is a logical extension of present theory and practice which include the concepts of the product life cycle and the product portfolio ma.
author_names: G David Hughes
title: Managing high tech product cycles
year: 1990

abstract: Considers the development of the culture of innovation and how the concept can be beneficial in business. Examines the application of marketing innovation (new products) and technological innovation which is not market driven. Illustrates the growth of innovative products through "S" curves and Product Life Cycles. Concludes that innovation needs to be encouraged by managers, albeit within a controlled framework that maximizes the inherent benefits, flexibility and emphasis on the need for change being central to the successful implementation of such a programme.
author_names: Richard Harvey Brown
title: Managing the "S" Curves of Innovation
year: 1992

abstract: The dynamic capabilities view has emerged as the central approach for addressing the question of how firms cope with technological change. Capturing the essence of dynamic capabilities and understanding what they are and how they actually support technological innovation and change, however, has hitherto posed an exacting challenge. This paper addresses these issues; 1) by reviewing the current state of research; 2) by investigating the role of three established theoretical lenses ambidexterity, absorptive capacity and technology management for dynamic capability driven adaptation to technological change. In particular, we analyse how these three concepts unfold as dynamic capabilities and facilitate technological change through strategic managerial decision making, resource reconfiguration and continuous learning. We subsequently propose a comprehensive framework that provides an integrative perspective on how dynamic capabilities support the management of technological change, e.g. developments toward digital transformation, new ICTs or cyber physical systems. Finally, we discuss future research directions based on the findings of our synthesis and framework.
author_names: Stefan Konlechner

Barbara Muller

Wolfgang H Guttel
title: A dynamic capabilities perspective on managing technological change: a review, framework and research agenda
venue: Int. J. Technol. Manag.
year: 2018

abstract: The global economic downturn of 2008 has impacted almost all industry segments in all geographies, and even after 5 years, many of them are in different stages of recovery. Emerging economies and technology firms in these economies have braved this headwind relatively better, and they have witnessed a significant growth in the recent years. In this study, we conduct an empirical research on Indian ICT firms and analyse how factors related to innovation and inorganic growth contribute to their sustenance and growth during boom and bust cycles. A set of 442 Indian firms in the ICT sector have been studied for the period 1999 2012, a period when this sector has witnessed all the four phases of business cycle. The results show that acquisitions vary significantly across phases of business cycle, whereas R&D investments do not vary over the cycle. Contrary to established findings in developed economies on technology firms' focus on R&D, we find that Indian ICT firms' R&D investments are significantly lower and may not play any significant role in the long term growth of the firms.
author_names: Arindam Das

Sheeba Kapil
title: The Role of Technological Innovation in Managing Through Business Cycles: A Study on Indian ICT Firms
year: 2015

abstract: Inspired by Herbert Simon's notion of nearly decomposable systems, researchers have examined modularity as a powerful approach to manage technological change in product innovation. We articulate this approach as the hierarchy of parts architecture and explain how it emphasizes decomposition of a design into loosely coupled parts and subsequent aggregation of these into an industrial product. To realize the scale benefits of modularity, firms successively freeze design specifications before production and therefore only allow limited windows of functionality design and redesign. This makes it difficult to take advantage of the increased speed by which digitized products can be developed and modified. To address this problem, we draw on Christopher Alexander's notion of design patterns to introduce a complementary approach to manage technological change that is resilient to digital technology. We articulate this approach as the network of patterns architecture and explain how it emphasizes generalization of ideas into patterns and subsequent specialization of patterns for different design purposes. In response to the increased digitization of industrial products, we demonstrate the value of complementing hierarchy of parts thinking with network of patterns thinking through a case study of infotainment architecture at an automaker. As a result, we contribute to the literature on managing products in the digital age: we highlight the properties of digital technology that increase the speed by which digitized products can be redesigned; we offer the notion of architectural frames and propose hierarchy of parts and network of patterns as frames to support innovation of digitized products; and, we outline an agenda for future research that reconsiders the work of Simon and Alexander as well as their followers to address key challenges in innovating digitized products.
author_names: Ola Henfridsson

Lars Mathiassen

Fredrik Svahn
title: Managing technological change in the digital age: the role of architectural frames
venue: J. Inf. Technol.
year: 2014

abstract: The current level of uncritical adoption in bodymodifying devices, and the propensity for remaking the human body through the aid of technology, is moving society closer to a human machine fusion. We are at the brink of postmodernity in all its fullness. This paper speculates on the pros and cons of such a reality and insists on the right of the individual to be able to self govern his/her own body, maintaining the right to choose. How individual choice is limited is also discussed, as industry innovation cycles get faster, and the need for continuous disruption means that the consumer is often at the mercy of an adapt or die kind of dilemma. What happens when complex technologies, like embedded microchips become a default way of living and working, transacting and interacting with no alternatives? These are just some of the questions explored in this qualitative study on body modifying devices.
author_names: Sharon R Bradley Munn

Katina Michael

M G Michael
title: The social phenomenon of body modifying in a world of technological change: past, present, future
venue: 2016 IEEE Conference on Norbert Wiener in the 21st Century (21CW)
year: 2016