nlp-thedeep/humsetbias huggingface dataset:
Macro economic impact of COVID 19 on low  and middle income countries  [ 9 April 2020 ]  Summary The current and projected impact of COVID 19 on mortality and morbidity starts to become clearer. But there is a set of secondary economic impacts that can be as, if not more, severe than the public health impacts. The central point is, even if a country does not register a single COVID 19 infection it could be severely impacted by this crisis. What is more, some countries might face both a public health emergency and an economic crisis, further reducing their capacity to respond. The objective of this paper is to offer evidence and analysis as a contribution to support decision makers. It presents the COVID 19 macro economic risk index based on the main channels of impact. It complements and builds on other excellent sources of data and analysis and has been developed to aid efforts to identify the low  and middle income countries that might be economically most impacted and highlight population groups that are most at risk. The paper focusses primarily on the macro economic impacts. There are also a set of micro  economic and household impacts not included here. It should be noted that the results are driven by the weighting of the variables and the indices are not an absolute ranking of countries nor a comprehensive assessment of the economic impact.
Remittances from affected countries. For some countries, remittances are a substantial flow of resources, providing critical livelihood support to millions of households. Migrants account for almost 30 per cent of workers in some of the most affected sectors in OECD countries. Massive job losses among migrant workers impact people's ability to send resources back home, which will have knock on effects on economies and vulnerable people heavily dependent on remittances, such as Tonga, South Sudan, Kyrgyzstan, Haiti, Honduras, Tajikistan and Nepal.
The cost of remittances   a lifeline in the developing world   should be brought as close to zero as possible.
Loss of jobs: Employees in sectors that have been directly or indirectly impacted  [ tourism, hospitality, retail ]  many whom will lose their income instantaneously. In the last two weeks in March almost 10 million people applied for unemployment benefits in the United States alone. The International Labour Organization expects COVID 19 to wipe out 6.7 per cent of working hours globally in the second quarter of 2020 – equivalent to 195 million full time workers. By comparison, the 2008 9 global financial crisis increased global unemployment by 22 million. This translates to a fall of employment income between USD 860 billion and USD 3.4 trillion by the end of 2020. ILO warned that only one in five people are eligible for unemployment benefits. Increase in poverty: The World Bank estimates that just in East Asia and the Pacific  [ EAP ]  under their baseline growth scenario, nearly 24 million fewer people will escape poverty across the region in 2020 than would have in the absence of the pandemic  ( using a poverty line of US$5.50/day ) . If the economic situation were to deteriorate further, and the lower case scenario prevails, then poverty is estimated to increase by about 11 million people. Prior projections estimated that nearly 35 million people would escape poverty in EAP in 2020. An Oxfam report said by the time the pandemic was over half of the world's population of 7.8 billion people could be living in poverty. The research – conducted by King's College London and the Australian National University – said that a 20% drop in income as a result of a recession caused by Covid 19 would push an additional 548 million people below $5.50 a day – one of the World Bank's definitions of poverty.
The COVID 19 pandemic is primarily a health crisis and a threat to the global and national economies, but has also far reaching social, political and security implications that are less evident and will last long after the contagion is contained. Such implications could give rise to new crises or exacerbate existing ones, increase insecurity leading to new displacements, increasing food insecurity, or aggravating poverty levels as well as creating disruptions to aid delivery. This brief gives an overview of the pathways of impact of the pandemic on political stability or conflict dynamics. We highlight countries that are most vulnerable to increasing risk of political instability, civil unrest, armed violence and conflict due to COVID 19 impact. In section 3 we offer a snapshot of COVID  19 potential impact in a broader selection of countries, particularly those under categories 1 and 2 of the WFP Global COVID 19 Response Plan. For analytical purposes, we are considering these risks artificially as separate while in reality in many contexts they are closely inter related and overlaying. The analysis draws upon the joint RAM AEW research on the COVID 19 economic impact and has been developed with the contributions and collaboration of SEC Security Analysts, both at HQ and in the field level.1
Central America and the Caribbean will be affected by US economic trends. Weaker tourism inflows expeced.
5. Proposals to mitigate the impact on the agrifood labour market Implementing measures to reactivate public and private investment with a territorial and sectoral approach is essential to follow up on strategies for impact assessment, immediate response, recovery and reconstruction  ( FAO and ECLAC, 2020a ) . Social dialogue and the involvement of social actors  ( employers' organizations and trade unions )  in their design are key components. In this regard, it is critical to build public private coordination to ﬁght COVID 19. Sub national governments can play the role of articulator, and sectoral public agencies the role of executing arms.
Provide urgent support to developing countries with weaker health systems: The most vulnerable in the face of this crisis are those who are already at risk: those caught up in or fleeing war and persecution, those already living in highly concentrated and under served areas, those whose lives have already been upended for other reasons and who lack access to basic social and political protections or to any support systems. Countries with large populations and significant informal sectors are especially vulnerable. The risk for the disease to take a deep foothold in fragile contexts and in poor and densely populated urban areas and slums, unable to self isolate, would leave us all at risk as the virus continues to spread across the globe.
The supply chain disruptions halting the manufacturing industry and the falling commodity prices, in particular oil, further compound the economic impact of the pandemic. This has rattled the financial markets, tightened liquidity conditions in many countries, created unprecedented outflows of capital from developing countries and put pressure on the foreign exchange markets, with some countries experiencing dollar shortages. Weak local currencies will constrain the government's ability for fiscal stimulus at the scale needed to stabilize the economy and to tackle the health crisis and human crisis.
The most vulnerable, including women, children, the elderly, and informal workers, will be hit the hardest. The impact on the environment, on the other hand, is likely to be positive on the short term, as the drastic reduction in economic activity brought about by the crisis has reduced CO2 emissions and pollution in many areas. Such improvements are destined to be short lived, unless countries deliver on their commitment to sustainable development once the crisis is over and the global economy restarts.
has been a spike in domestic violence reporting, at exactly the time that services, including rule of law, health and shelters, are being diverted to address the pandemic. With families isolated in their homes, children are also facing the rapid increase of online child abuse.
Implications for the 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement The COVID 19 crisis is likely to have a profound and negative effect on sustainable development efforts. A prolonged global economic slowdown will adversely impact the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.
The economic disruption created by the crisis is leading to a reconsideration of resource use and the fragility of supply lines. This opportunity needs to be used to strengthen approaches that enhance both resilience and efficiency, such as the circular economy, climate action and raising the ambition of NDCs. Similarly, robust and comprehensive environmental priority transboundary issues may prevent and mitigate future pandemics, simultaneously banning trade of wildlife  ( which can contribute to health risks ) , harmonizing sanitary standards and addressing the interacting threats due to illegal trade, habitat loss, climate change, and different sources of pollution by developing collaborative policy frameworks.
essential medicines, medical equipment and related inputs is necessary to facilitate the cross  border movement of essential products. Innovative tools such as UN eTIR/eCMR systems and other tools that allow to exchange electronic information without physical contact and facilitate the flow of goods across borders should be used. Efforts should be made to maintain transit freight transport for landlocked countries and maritime connectivity of small island developing States that suffer more due to geographical disadvantage.
The second step is to do everything possible to cushion the knock on effects on millions of people's lives, their livelihoods and the real economy. That means the direct provision of resources to support workers and households, provision of health and unemployment insurance, scale up of social protection, and support to businesses to prevent bankruptcies and massive job losses. That also means designing fiscal and monetary responses to ensure that the burden does not fall on those countries who can least bear it.
The third step is to learn from this crisis and build back better. Had we been further advanced in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, we could better face this challenge   with stronger health systems, fewer people living in extreme poverty, less gender inequality, a healthier natural environment, and more resilient societies. We must seize the opportunity of this crisis to strengthen our commitment to implement the 2030 Agenda and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. By making progress on our global roadmap for a more inclusive and sustainable future, we can better respond to future crises.
A large scale, coordinated and comprehensive multilateral response amounting to at least 10 per cent of global GDP is needed now more than ever. This crisis is truly global. It is in everyone's interest to ensure that developing countries have the best chance of managing this crisis, or COVID 19 will
Latin America and the Caribbean – the oil price drop will shake a region grappling with the world's second largest migrant crisis The COVID 19 crisis hits Latin America at a moment when regional GDP was already forecast to grow sluggishly or even contract and it is under pressure from the exodus of around five million people from Venezuela, a migrant crisis second only to Syria's.
Mobility impact The COVID 19 pandemic has caused global mobility to come to a near standstill with border closures, air travel suspensions and complex mobility restrictions. Forcibly displaced and other migrant populations are one of the first to confront the harsh impacts of this crisis.
Digital technologies have become a positive enabler facilitating business continuity and connecting people more than ever and helping them maintain good mental health. However, inequality of access to broadband connectivity and inaccessibility of ICTs hinders effective remote participation and access to remote schooling arrangements, health information and telemedicine by all. According to ITU, an estimated 3.6 billion people remain offline, with the majority of the unconnected living in the least developed countries.
In the education sector, 166 countries have implemented country wide school and university closures. More than 1.52 billion children and youth are currently out of school or university, representing 87 per cent of the world enrolled school and university student population. In addition, nearly 60.2 million teachers are no longer in the classroom.
Cash transfers during the pandemic will help people to get through an inevitable recession. Social protection, including paid sick leave, saves lives and alleviates human suffering, while supporting people's resilience and contributing to economic recovery. In addition, many governments are seeking to strike a balance by assigning proportionate financial support to enterprises to retain workers – through time bound financial/tax relief to support business continuity, employment retention schemes   and providing income support and employment services to all workers.
Para ejecutar los programas de suministro y de recuperación de medios de vida mencionados anteriormente, es necesario fortalecer la capacidad del personal y los voluntarios de las Sociedades Nacionales en lo que respecta a la programación de los medios de vida. Por consiguiente, se proponen las siguientes actividades: § Asistencia técnica para llevar a cabo evaluaciones técnicas, tales como evaluaciones de las necesidades de medios de vida, evaluaciones del mercado laboral, asistencia operativa, orientación para incluir “soluciones inteligentes con respecto al clima'7 en la programación de medios de vida, evaluaciones finales, estudios de caso, compilación y difusión de las mejores prácticas y lecciones aprendidas. Estas asistencias técnicas podrían realizarse sobre el terreno y/o en modalidad de apoyo remoto a distancia. § Creación y/o adaptación de enfoques, metodología e instrumentos para el contexto especifico del COVID 19, tanto en el contexto rural como en el urbano, dada la evolución de las demandas y necesidades de la población destinataria. § Capacitación técnica: facilitar cursos de formación  ( en línea o presenciales )  al personal y a los voluntarios para poder prestar buenos servicios a las personas afectadas por la crisis de COVID 19. Los siguinetes son los cursos disponibles:           Módulo sobre cambio climático y medios de vida   Curso de Programación en Medios de Vida  ( LPC8 )  Capacitación en Programas de Transferencias Monetarias ERLA9  ( Evaluación de Necesidades en Medios de Vida en Emergencias y Recuperación )  Evaluaciones de mercado Dos  ( 2 ) módulos de empleabilidad  ( Módulo de habilidades básicas de empleo y módulo de intermediación laboral )  Elaboración de casos prácticos para formaciones contextualizadas en la crisis de COVID 19. § § Aprendizaje y gestión del conocimiento sobre los medios de vida en respuesta a la pandemia COVID 19 para facilitar el aprendizaje en tiempo real y el intercambio de conocimientos entre los componentes del Movimiento de la CR/MLR.
The travel and tourism industry has been hit hard by the COVID 19 outbreak. On March 15, the government banned the arrival of non resident foreigners. On March 17, it announced the suspension of domestic flights and long distance trains and buses, as well as hotels' shutdown. These measures were lately extended until May 10. On April 26, the government announced that airlines were not able to issue new tickets until September 1, however this measure will be reviewed every two weeks according to the outbreak's evolution.
Trade is typically denominated in USD and exports, thus, indicate growing reserves of foreign exchange. Similarly, tourists bring hard currency into a country and so do remittances. With these sources running dry, a country risks not having enough USD to pay for vital imports. This leaves countries reliant on imports to meet food needs very exposed. Ensuing currency depreciation can further aggravate the situation, putting upward pressure on domestic food prices at a moment when household purchasing power is tumbling on the back of incomes lost to the crisis. ILO estimates a reduction in working hours in the second quarter of 2020 equivalent to 195 million full time workers.6
Narrowing down the countries at risk While it does not look like COVID 19 will leave any country undamaged, some are more vulnerable than others from an economic and food security perspective. Based on the analysis above, we revisited our initial list of particularly vulnerable economies region by region, zooming in on those most at risk. While we have previously concentrated on primary commodity export and food import dependency together with macroeconomic capacity, this time we looked beyond these factors, considering also reliance on remittances and the importance of tourism. This allows us to identify countries susceptible to being hit not only on one front but to experiencing double  ( or even triple )  blows from a global recession.
Immediate impacts Medium/Long term Impacts  Informal activities to continue with high risk of exposure to contamination for themselves and their families as there are no safety nets or social protection or alternative incomes Remittances An essential source of incomes for many families in both urban and rural areas. In general, migrant remittances surpass official aid and foreign direct investment and remittances flows contribute substantially to economy growth and to household incomes both in urban and rural areas. Impact:  Migrants are one of the first at risk of losing their jobs and so neither can they support their families home Limited access to financial services to transfer or receive money   Migrants returning home  Less job opportunities, formal and informal: increased competition, including skilled labours in non skilled jobs  Impact on the quality of work conditions: reduction on wages, restriction of social insurance and benefits, abusive hours, etc.  Increase unemployment among women and youth  ( the groups with higher rate of unemployment ) . Less demand on services that may affect especially women as main delivery of: e.g. selling prepared food, care services, petty trade, beauty and care services, etc.  Increase cost of transport that affects mobility and incomes for transport businesses  ( taxi drivers, moto drivers, etc. )   Small businesses reliant on face to face interactions are the most likely to suffer a loss of customers and income if the context is not enabling for digital transactions e.g. in Liberia Ebola context Petty traders have raised concerns that it could take between 6 and 12 months for vendors to recover from debts and rebuild business capital  ( ALNAP )  Possible damaging coping strategy: Take children out of schools, with higher risk of girls Increase child labour and use of children for begging       Migration of some of the household members, including minors alone Involvement on illegal activities   Selling household items and items essential for livelihoods     Not investing in health care and education to ensure food For both, rural and urban, migrant workers returning home are dependent on their families are an additional pressure on the resources
A country's vulnerability to any of these transmission channels, however, is not the lone determinant of the fate of its economy. Foreign exchange reserves worth several months of imports allow a country to maintain crucial food imports even in the face of crumbling export earnings. Meanwhile, a high public debt burden  ( Figure 2 )  can hamper a country's capacity to respond to economic shocks – the World Bank estimates the debt stock of developing countries at USD 7.8 trillion.7 With a significant portion of the public budget devoted to servicing debt, it will be a struggle to find the necessary resources to respond to the impact of COVID 19. In the case of Africa, Brookings8 and the Overseas Development Institute9 had already warned about the continent's growing debt burden constraining government spending before the arrival of the COVID 19 pandemic.
The region's high dependence on the export of primary commodities – copper, soy, crude oil and iron ore, representing 75 percent of its exports – makes it very vulnerable to price swings in international commodity markets as the one driven by the global economic downturn following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease. “China sneezes, Latin America catches a cold,' writes the EIU31; and China is not the only sneezing country today. Venezuela's already crippled economy, with the highest inflation worldwide, is one of those that rely heavily on oil exports. These accounted for 99 percent of merchandise exports in 2018. Moreover, Venezuelan oil production decreased from 1273,1 thousand barrels/day on average in 2018 to 865 thousand barrels/day in February 2020 amidst US sanctions, compounding the shock to export earnings from plunging prices.32 Fuel exports also make up 60 percent of merchandise exports for Colombia – the Colombian peso lost almost 20 percent of its value since the beginning of the year – and more than 40 percent for Ecuador. Unable to stimulate the usual response in demand because of a paralyzed global economy and lower oil prices, oil exporters are confronted with the double whammy of tumbling prices and low demand. The International Energy Agency projects Ecuador's oil and gas income will fall by 85 percent relative to 2019.33 This comes at a time when the country is already struggling to pay its foreign debt and stay on track with a USD 4.2 billion IMF bailout, leaving it with little fiscal space to manage the pandemic.34 While food security may not be as pervasive across the region as in other parts of the world, early projections by WFP's Regional Bureau paint a bleak picture. Severe food insecurity is expected to increase six fold in Colombia and the numbers of people suffering from moderate food insecurity to increase from 2.11 to 3.78 million. In Colombia, Ecuador and Peru the vulnerable migrant population– some of the most affected by movement restrictions and heavily reliant on informal income – can grow by 70 80%. The number of severely food insecure Venezuelan migrants in Ecuador is projected to double and the pandemic could leave Venezuela itself with 14 percent of its entire population severely food insecure.35
The situation in neighbouring Cuba is very preoccupying. The country is exposed simultaneously on different sides while already under pressure from US sanctions and spill over effects of the crisis in Venezuela, which the pandemic will likely intensify. There has been speculation that the combination of the three could bring about conditions similar to the so called “Special Period', which saw a 30 percent contraction in GDP.37 Tourism and travel accounts for about a quarter of Cuba's export earnings. The country officially closed its borders on 24 March, shutting down its tourism sector. Estimates for 2018 see cash remittances at USD 3692 million, about 4 percent of GDP, but more than a quarter of export earnings.38 Diminishing flows of USD to the island coincide with reports of failed debt payments39 and record level budget deficits.40 The government already announced in February that it might not be able to secure steady supplies of essential non food items such as soap.41 Meanwhile, Cuba imports about 60 percent of its food. This share could increase on the back of intermittent oil supplies from Venezuela – the winter crop was produced with just 40 percent of the usual fuel supplies – with dire prospects for food security on the island.
While the EIU still forecast 0.9 percent GDP growth at regional level in January 2020, it has now revised its expectations to a 4.8 percent contraction of GDP, outpacing all the rest of the world but the Euro Zone. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean estimates that COVID 19's economic ramifications could trigger a rise in unemployment by 10 percent across the region, while pushing an additional 35 million of the region's 620 million inhabitants into poverty and causing a rise in extreme poverty from 67.4 to 90 million.42 Already terribly high, these estimates are based on the more optimistic view of a 1.8 percent contraction in regional GDP with COVID 19 contained in China; and have been qualified as a reference projection given the current revised estimated GDP contraction of 3 to 4 percent.43
Los países de la region, dada su heterogeneidad económica, social, cultural y política, han tomado diversas medidas para hacer frente a la crisis. Las cuarentenas, prohibiciones y restricciones a la circulación y libre movimiento de bienes y personas tendrán importantes repercusiones socioeconómicas en los medios de vida de las personas, las cadenas de mercado y el comercio de productos agrícolas y no agrícolas, con importante impacto en las poblaciones que dependen de ellas para sus medios de vida y su seguridad alimentaria y nutricional. Además, las familias que han perdido sus  ( principales )  fuentes de ingresos debido al cese de sus actividades económicas tendrán dificultades para cubrir sus necesidades básicas  ( alimentos y artículos no alimentarios ) , los tratamientos sanitarios, el pago de alquileres, etc. y para recuperarse después de la crisis.
MSME, such as tax measures, direct economic support for businesses, or economic support for workers  ( unemployment insurance ) . • Provide targeted support to vulnerable sub groups of informal workers  ( women, children, youth, indigenous groups and migrants ) . • Maintain agricultural supply chains and strengthen market linkages of local producers, promoting decent work and introducing mechanisms to connect labour supply and demand, so that informal workers can access employment opportunities available in agrifood value chains.
En el contexto rural, aunque muchos hogares podrían continuar con sus actividades agrícolas, otros no podrán llegar a sus tierras, por lo que es probable que se produzca una reducción de la producción de cultivos alimentarios de subssistencia y comerciales. La escasez de mano de obra debido a las limitaciones de movimiento, y las enfermedades en los hogares podría perturbar la producción y la elaboración de alimentos. También se prevén desafíos en cuanto a la logística que implica el movimiento de alimentos y el impacto de la pandemia en el sector pecuario debido a la reducción del acceso a los mercados, insumos productivos  ( piensos )  y a la menor capacidad de los mataderos  ( debido a las limitaciones logísticas, de movimiento y a la escasez de mano de obra ) . En el contexto urbano el impacto será aún más crítico, ya que los sectores del comercio y los servicios se verán afectados al cesar sus actividades y, por consiguiente, los ingresos de los hogares disminuirán como resultado de la pérdida de salarios y actividades generadoras de ingresos.
Tras todo lo mencionado, desde el ámbito de medios de vida5, es preocupante el efecto que esta crisis tendrá en los capitales de las personas más vulnerables aumentando su vulnerabilidad frente a la presente y las siguientes crisis. Es de esperar que los hogares ya estén o inicien pronto a utilizar estrategias de afrontamiento negativas como la venta de sus bienes productivos, la reducción de ingesta de alimentos y reducción de la diversidad de la dieta, la retirada de los niños de la escuela, ya que las familias no pueden hacer frente a los gastos de educación y se les envía a trabajar, entre otras, lo que contribuye a marginar y aislar aún más a estos grupos ya vulnerables. Ante este desafío es necesario identificar el marco de acciones que contribuya tanto a la respuesta sanitaria como a la respuesta en materia de medios de vida, promoviendo su reconocimiento por los Estados, organismos internacionales y ONGs y la coordinación de acciones que incluyan a estos grupos y eviten su segregación.
LAC se encuentra con un nivel de pobreza que alcanza al 30% y un 10,7% de indigencia. La informalidad laboral bordea el 58% Los sistemas de protección son escasos o nulos y excluyen a las personas con trabajos informales. Las personas más pobres, tanto migrantes, refugiados y comunidades de acogida, comen del ingreso diario. Las medidas iniciales de apoyo económico de los países de la región no han considerado a estos grupos más vulnerables, centrándose en aquellos grupos de trabajadores formales o personas insertas en los sistemas de protección social.
Las siguientes son acciones iniciales que podrían comenzar que no requieren fondos pero que facilitarían la respuesta: 1. A nivel regional de la FICR: 1.1. Priorización de los países que van a intervenir. Identificación de las intervenciones en materia de medios de vida y seguridad alimentaria realizadas en crisis anteriores similares  ( por ejemplo, Ébola, Cólera, Zika ) , extrayendo las lecciones aprendidas y las mejores prácticas, al igual que adaptar metodologias y herramientas existentes a las especificidades del trabajo en el contexto de pandemia COVID 19. 1.2. Identificación de los recursos humanos disponibles para ser desplegados una vez que se levanten las restricciones de movimiento. 1.3. Promover que los donantes incorporen, dentro de sus líneas, recursos para apoyar el restablecimiento, fortalecimiento y diversificación de los medios de vida, como una forma de dar sostenibilidad a la respuesta sanitaria por COVID 19. 2. A nivel de país  ( FICR/ SN ) : 2.1. Identificación de las zonas más afectadas 2.2. Identificación de los grupos de medios de vida que podrían verse más afectados por la crisis 2.3. Identifición del los mecanismos de apoyo socio económico a estos grupos a nivel país. 2.4. Identificación de las posibles vacíos e las ayudas sociales y repercusiones en los medios de vida de 2.5. Identificación de posibles sinergias y alianzas  ( por ejemplo, FAO, PMA; Ministerio de Agricultura, 2.6. Identificar acciones concretas, de corto y mediano plazo, que se puedan realizar desde el ámbito las personas Ministerio de Asuntos Sociales, etc. )  de acción de las SNs. 2.7. Promover que los donantes incorporen, dentro de sus líneas, recursos para apoyar el restablecimiento, fortalecimiento y diversificación de los medios de vida, como una forma de dar sostenibilidad a la respuesta sanitaria por COVID 19. 2.8. Mapeo de potenciales donantes para apoyar el restablecimiento, fortalecimiento y diversificación de los medios de vida. Otras acciones que se recomiendan sobre los proyectos y programas actualmente en curso: • Mantener los programas de apoyo económico y de insumos a las personas migrantes y refugiadas, y población de acogida más vulnerable, así como otros programas de asistencia a grupos vulnerables en el ámbito nacional. • Actualizar, en la medida de lo posible, la asistencia humanitaria de acuerdo con las nuevas necesidades, la disponibilidad de los artículos y los cambios de precio en los mercados de los elementos de primera necesidad  ( alimentos y artículos de higiene ) .
Las estimaciones de la Organización Internacional del Trabajo  ( OIT, 2020 )  indican un aumento del desempleo mundial de entre 5,3 millones de personas y 24,7 millones de personas, con una base de 188 millones de personas desocupadas en 2019. En un escenario “medio' el aumento del desempleo sería de 13 millones de personas. Dadas las desigualdades económicas y sociales de la región, los efectos del desempleo afectarán de manera desproporcionada a los pobres y a los estratos vulnerables de ingresos medios. Es probable que la crisis aumente el empleo informal como estrategia de supervivencia. En 2016 el 53,1% de los trabajadores de América Latina y el Caribe trabajaba en el sector informal  ( OIT, 2018 ) . Otra medida probable para afronatr la crisis por parte de las familias mas vulnerables es que envíen a sus hijos al mercado de trabajo, lo que aumentará las tasas de trabajo infantil. La OIT estima que actualmente el 7,3% de los niños de 5 a 17 años  ( unos 10,5 millones de niños )  de la región trabajan.
Como todas las crisis, ésta tendrá mayores impactos en los más vulnerables, los cuales se identifican como: personas con problemas de salud subyacentes, adultos mayores, jóvenes desempleados, personas subempleadas, mujeres, trabajadores desprotegidos y trabajadores migrantes, con los consiguientes aumentos en la desigualdad. Los hogares más vulnerables en ambos contextos rural y urbano, dependientes de las remesas de los miembros migrados a las zonas urbanas o fuera del país, verán reducidas sustancialmente sus fuentes de ingresos de subsistencia. Al 23 de marzo de 2020, alrededor de 154 millones de niños, niñas y adolescentes  ( más del 95% de los matriculados en la región ) , se encontraban temporalmente fuera de las escuelas cerradas a causa del COVID 19  ( UNICEF, 2020 ) . Esos niños y niñas requieren cuidados que sobrecargan el tiempo de las familias, en particular a las mujeres que dedican diariamente el triple del tiempo al trabajo doméstico y de cuidados no remunerados en comparación con el que dedican los hombres a las mismas tareas. Por este motivo son de especial atención las trabajadoras domésticas y las mujeres cuya ocupación consiste en la realización de labores de cuidado de otras personas, ya que se han visto afectadas desde una doble dimensión. Por una parte, al verse imposibilitadas de acudir a su lugar de trabajo  ante el riesgo de contagio  y por otro, por la sobrecarga en el ejercicio de estas labores en sus hogares, siendo que sobre ellas recaen principalmente estas tareas y al no estar operando los centros de cuidado para sus hijos e hijas. Las mujeres también tienen menos acceso a la protección social y tendrán una carga desproporcionada en la economía del cuidado. Cabe destacar que las desigualdades de género se acentúan en hogares de menores ingresos donde las demandas de cuidados son mayores, al tener más dependientes por hogar. Los trabajadores informales, los migrantes y la población desplazada que viven en campamentos han visto cómo su única fuente de ingresos se ha visto afectada, y además cabe señalar que a menudo carecen de protección jurídica o tienen un acceso limitado a las redes de seguridad social en sus lugares de trabajo. Estos grupos suelen depender de los pagos en efectivo o del intercambio de otros bienes no monetarios. No es de extrañar que estos grupos coinciden con los identificados por la OIT, en base a experiencias pasadas y presentes de crisis que han tenido un impacto económico global, como los grupos más vulnerables en materia de empleo
Current Situation and Anticipated Impact – LFS Sector Immediate impacts Context: Around 2 billion people 61% of the world's working population toil in the informal economy, and have little or nothing to protect them if they're unable to go to work. They usually have neither sick pay nor health insurance and may not be eligible for government benefits given to furloughed workers. The situation threatens to be particularly acute in Africa, where 86% of employment is informal, according to ILO1 Rural livelihoods  Agriculture production.   Seasonality of production cycle: due to movement restrictions and markets closure 1 )  planting season may be disrupted limit farms access to essential inputs such as seeds, fertilizers or pesticides; 2 )  seasonal workers may lose job opportunities and so incomes for their families.   Health impact on household's capacity to maintain their activities: planting, maintain the crops, harvest Medium/Long term Impacts This information is a scenario build on learnings from past crisis such as Ebola and analysis of UN agencies such as ILO and WFP. Although there is much uncertainty yet on the evolution of the crisis, the measures in place will impact livelihoods and food security of most vulnerable in the long term as they have no capacity to cope with the situation. Analysts are already suggesting that, for many poor countries, the economic consequences could be more devastating than the disease itself ILO estimates under the mid and high scenarios, there will be between 20.1 million and 35.0 million more people in working poverty than before the pre  COVID 19 estimate for 2020  ( For comparison, the global financial crisis of 2008 9 increased unemployment by 22 million ) . Rural livelihoods Especial attention must be paid to the impact of this crisis on rural areas already affected by drought, floods or locust outbreak, that were in process of recovery and might not be able to stand a second shock. From similar previous crisis, most common impact was:  Farmers incapacity to maintain their activity due to loss of incomes: lower sales, lower incomes and increase in prices, might put at risk farming as it become more difficult for farmers to buy seeds and cultivate their crops for the next harvest season.
Immediate impacts Medium/Long term Impacts    Incomes losses farmers at risk of losing their main incomes source as they cannot sell their products and have no capacity to storage or process production into new products. Livestock   Transhumance impact due to borders closure and movement restriction: 1 )  increase pressure on natural resources  ( water and pasture )  in the areas where they are blocked that impact grazing areas capacity to regenerate and leads to animal food shortage 2 )  risk of exacerbation of conflict with settled farmers; 3 )  risk of new conflict while looking for new routes for migration.   Loss of incomes due to livestock markets closure, restriction of gathering and reduction of meat consumption as families reduce their incomes  Fishing   Limited capacity of fish processing and impossibly of selling highly perishable fishing products due to market closure and movement restrictions leads to cessation of fishing activities and consequent loss of jobs and incomes   Health impact leads to income loss as it is a skill specific labour that is difficult to be replaced by other member of the household Urban livelihoods  Loss of jobs  ( employees )  and self employment  ( micro and small businesses )  in e.g. Services, Industry, Tourism and no Social Protection will make people highly dependent on humanitarian assistance.  Reduction on the production due to reduced size of fields: could be due to farmers heath conditions  ( if one or more family members is unwell ) , lack of migrant workers to support farming due to movement restriction or lack of capacity of farmers to pay salaries Increase competition for agricultural jobs with people returning from urban areas that may reduce wages and so purchasing power and exclude women as men are preferred workers   Reduced resources for livelihoods as increase the expenditures on health care Possible damaging coping strategies:   Altering food consumption to reduce costs to levels with consequences for health Increase consumption of wild food Selling assets that are irrecuperable like animals or land       New unaffordable debts   Migration   Abandon of fields Urban livelihoods In urban contexts, the households are completely dependent on incomes from labour or self employment and markets to cover all their needs, while the cost of living is higher in urban than rural areas mainly due to housing costs.
Key interventions summary Preparedness Emergency Medium/Long term Recovery Key intervention actions  Monitoring ongoing situation and concomitant crisis, use secondary data  Continue food assistance, avoiding stop programmes when possible  Redirecting funds of current programmes to protect food security and livelihoods e.g. uplifting conditionality or long term support to emergency response  Revise targeting to prioritise those more at risk now  Revise procedures for food, CVA and agricultural inputs distribution and plan alternatives, including procurement of in kind with time to mitigate supply chain disruptions  Plan funds for livelihoods recovery  Advocacy with institutions to support food security, livelihoods protection and livelihoods recovery  Link with existing Social Protection programmes; and advocate for flexibility of social protection programmes e.g. to remove conditionality Food Security, Livelihoods and Nutrition  Provide food assistance: CVA/in kind  Support food production: provide seeds, tools, fertilisers, etc.  Safety nets: assistance for basic needs and prevent assets depletion; consider top up/ expand existing social protection schemes  Support small businesses to adapt to business transactions for digital continuity  Support saving groups: to use digital transfer or members to protect themselves during meetings; advice to adopt contingency measures to protect their activity  Support local markets value chain  Promote veg gardens, keyhole/ urban vertical garden access nutritious food  Where markets are functional provide to protection advice and means workers/ traders/ consumers  Advocacy e.g. increasing transfer amount to people already benefiting from social assistance; update food basket; etc.  Support to increase local food production  ( inputs and technical advice ) ; storage capacity and food processing to minimize food losses and waste  Cash grants for assets replacement or capital start up to restore livelihoods activities Increase employability adapted to the new context  ( new needs  new skills )    Support innovation for small businesses to reach their customers  Support access to financial services, including saving groups that provide microloans  Advocacy: for social protection schemes with the objective to inject funds into communities to stimulate local economy  Target also areas not only affected by COVID 19 crisis but that were known to be highly vulnerable to food and nutrition security before the crisis
Cross over with cash and vouchers assistance CVA has the potential to respond to the secondary impact of the crisis like losses of incomes while limiting the risks of contamination as if the context allows it, it can be digitalized. Cash has also been proven to be facilitating the access to basic services and among them health services. The Cash Hub has opened a dedicated page on CVA and Covid 19 where more resources produced by the movement on the specific topics can be found: https://www.cash hub.org/resources/cash and covid 19 The CaLP has also created a specific page with useful resources on how to adapt CVA in the context of the current pandemic developed by external actors  ( INGOs, UN ) : https://www.calpnetwork.org/themes/cva and covid 19 resources guidance events and  questions/ Due to the far reaching economic impacts of Covid both in relief and in recovery and the role that cash can play to protect peoples' economic resilience and capacity right now, it is likely that the NS will want to use CVA both now and in the next 12 months. Therefore, for NS who have not yet started to think and invest in their ability to design and delivery CVA, there may be an opportunity to support some rapid preparedness for cash delivery which would focus on the minimum needed for cash delivery in a Covid or other response. For more information please visit our websites:  https://www.livelihoodscentre.org/  https://media.ifrc.org/ifrc/  https://www.redcross.org.uk/
Latin American and Caribbean: According to the ECLAC, the region COVID 19 is causing the biggest contraction in economic activity in the history of the region: a  5.3 per cent drop in 2020, increasing unemployment by 10 per cent. This could result in poverty in the region raising from 185 million to 220 million people, out of 620 million inhabitants in total; and the quantity of people living in extreme poverty could increase from 67.4 million to 90 million  ( CEPAL 2020/04/21 ) .
REMITTANCES ▪ Global remittances projected to decline sharply by about 20 per cent in 2020, due to COVID 19 pandemic, shutdown and economic crisis. ▪ LMICS: Remittances to low and middle income countries  ( LMICs )  are projected to fall by 19.7 per cent to $445 billion, loss of a crucial financing lifeline for many vulnerable households. ▪ Despite the decline, remittance flows are expected to become even more important as a source of external financing for LMICs as the fall in foreign direct investment is expected to be larger  ( over 35 per cent ) . ▪ Remittance flows are expected to fall across all WB regions, higher drop in Europe and Central Asia  ( 27.5 per cent ) , followed by Sub Saharan Africa  ( 23.1 per cent ) , South Asia  ( 22.1 per cent ) , the Middle East and North Africa  ( 19.6 per cent ) , Latin America and the Caribbean  ( 19.3 per cent ) , and East Asia and the Pacific  ( 13 per cent ) . ▪ Global average cost of sending $200 remains high at 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020, only slightly below the previous year. Sub Saharan Africa continued to have the highest average cost, at about 9 per cent  ( WB 2020/04/22 )
Regarding livelihoods related expertise for response and recovery and development in urban or rural contexts, Figure 4 shows there is greater expertise in rural contexts. These questions required NSs to rate their capacity on a scale from 1 to 5   1 corresponding to no expertise and 5 to considerable expertise. As can be observed, NSs consider that there is still a lack of livelihoods related expertise in both response and recovery and development in both urban and rural contexts.
UNDP is helping countries advance inclusive and integrated crisis management by supporting governments to maintain core functions, and to plan, coordinate, communicate and finance their responses. This builds on UNDP's global capacity in business continuity and our long experience in helping countries strengthen institutions, uphold rule of law and human rights, address exac  erbated gender inequalities, mitigate the risks of disasters, overcome crises, and build resilience. UNDP is already working across the globe supporting the COVID 19 response, including in China, India, Indonesia, Lebanon, Somalia, Moldova, Peru, and Vietnam. In Vietnam, we are helping reach out to ethnic minorities and people with disabilities. In Panama, UNDP is collaborating with the Government to channel income from a crowdsourcing platform to assist in the response. In Moldo  va, we have created a platform for distance learning. In Myanmar, we helped to create an app that helps women to become community leaders during COVID19. Globally, UNDP is helping the private sector respond, including through a business guide for private sector engagement, developed with FAO, the Global Compact, IOM, OCHA, the UN Foundation, UN Women, WFP and WHO.
The FAO assembled a compendium of data to empirically assess and identify the pandemic's primary channels of transmission to food and agriculture sectors. The appraisal quantified the potential impacts on agricultural food consumption, which was supplemented by a qualitative evaluation of the effects of credit markets, energy markets and possible disruptions in supply chains. This analysis enabled FAO to create a taxonomy of countries based on their degree of exposure to pandemic  induced shocks. Two key findings emerged from this assessment: demand sided risks are mostly related with low income countries, whilst supply sided risks are more prevalent in high income countries.
Tourism facing an unprecedented challenge In an unprecedented crisis to the tourism sector, possible scenarios point to declines of 60% to 80% in international tourist arrivals for the year, depending on the speed of the containment and the duration of travel restrictions and shutdown of borders. Additionally, the availability of tourism related statistical data for 2020 will likely be impacted.
2020 marked the beginning of a Decade of Action towards the Sustainable Development Goals  ( SDGs ) . But with the COVID 19 pandemic, the global context for development has fundamentally changed. The world faces the greatest socio economic shock in a generation, coming at a time of acute inequality, ecological fragility and growing distrust within and amongst societies. This pandemic is a health crisis. But not just a health crisis. Tackling COVID 19 is also a humani  tarian and development crisis that is threatening to leave deep social, economic and political scars for years to come, particularly in countries already weighed down by fragility, poverty and conflict. The solidarity that brought the global community together to create the Global Goals is needed more than ever. From building strong institutions to creating jobs to ensuring education and health  care for all, the SDGs and the pledge to leave no one behind work best when tackled in an integrated manner. That is how the world must work, together, to defeat COVID 19.