nlp-thedeep/humsetbias huggingface dataset:
Movement restrictions and other Government directives, disruptions to imports and national supply chains, and challenges to access owing to flooding have affected the availability of basic commodities and contributed to increased prices
A key source of community feedback is Radio Ergo, which provides critical information through daily radio broadcasts on lifesaving and life enhancing issues to communities, including the vulnerable groups across Somalia. This enables them to make better informed decisions and amplify the voices of local communities, including the most marginalized and excluded, through a trusted feedback platform which allows communities to participate in humanitarian planning and response.
The pilot under WFP championship included bringing stakeholders together; building consensus on reporting to a collective system, including the data categories; and using a low tech system to create infographics. A report based on data provided by 17 operational partners for May 2020 was prepared and presented to the HCT on 8 September 2020.
Key drivers of high food insecurity in Somalia include the destructive desert locust upsurge, effects of the COVID 19 pandemic, Cyclone Gati among other natural hazards, protracted conflict and population displacement.
A lack of public infrastructure remains a key additional barrier to the delivery of humanitarian assistance. According to the African Development Bank  ( AfDB ) , the total length of the primary and main roads in Somalia is 4,124km, of which 2,860km are paved and 1,264km are unpaved or a gravel surface39. Of these, about 90 per cent are in a very poor condition. This has a direct impact on humanitarian operations, while the deterioration of road conditions not only represents a barrier to trade and employment opportunities, especially for farming communities, but also leads to an increase in the costs of transporting crops to markets, thereby undermining incentives to expand harvests.
The threat of IEDs on key roads and areas newly under Government control continues to affect access in many parts of southern and central Somalia.
The number of humanitarian partners continues to stay the same in the country, despite the challenging operational environment. A wide range of national and international organisations are involved in the delivery of humanitarian assistance in all 18 regions of the country, with 363 partners actively implementing activities. The number of partners is primarily due to improved coordination, especially among local organisations, better data collection, and the extension of humanitarian interventions in places that were not previously accessible.
By the end of November 2020, $224.8 million had been disbursed in Somalia through Cash Voucher Assistance ( CVA )  by around 43 Cash Working Group  ( CWG )  partners to an average of 1.63 million individuals. The total value of cash transferred in 2020 includes cash for sectoral objectives by the different clusters, multi purpose cash assistance  ( MPCA )  and cash transferred for safety nets and shock response support
Despite the challenging environment in 2020, the humanitarian response system in Somalia remained resilient and effective. Mechanisms were in place for rapid scale up and sustained response including significant Cash Voucher Assistance ( CVA ) . The use of Cash Voucher Assistance ( CVA )  continues to rise, and in the last year has been instrumental in the delivery of life saving programmes even in the context of COVID 19. The ability of Somali markets to continue operating in the face of considerable insecurity provides a key opportunity for the delivery of humanitarian assistance through Cash Voucher Assistance ( CVA ) , particularly in south and central regions of Somalia, which remain very complex for programme delivery.
Overall, severe access constraints continue to have a direct impact on the ability of the humanitarian community to effectively deliver humanitarian relief to populations in need Existing constraints including funding, access and security affect delivery of humanitarian assistance to people in need, especially those in hard to reach areas or under the control/influence of Al Shabaab.
In order to resolve the challenges created by restricted access in Somalia, on 1 December 2020, the HCT endorsed a new Framework of Engagement for Humanitarian Access and Space in Somalia. This framework attempts to systematically and collectively address humanitarian access with relevant entities, building on the HRP which provides the strategic entry point for the majority of humanitarian actors to engage in Somalia. The framework provides a platform for engagement with all parties, including de facto authorities in control of specific geographic areas, covering all areas where humanitarian action is taking place, with a specific focus on geographic areas characterized as: 1 )  communities where humanitarians either have no access or partial access that is not predictable/regular; and 2 )  new areas which are potentially opening up for humanitarian access.
COVID 19 led to a temporary decline in remittances which impacted the purchasing power of households.
UNHCR projects the total number of refugees and asylum seekers in 2021 to stand at 28,002, the majority of which are hosted in Somaliland  ( 55 per cent ) , followed by Puntland  ( 37 per cent )  and south and central regions  ( 8 per cent ) . In terms of country of origin, 71 per cent are from Ethiopia, 26 per cent from Yemen, while the remaining refugees and asylum seekers are from more than a dozen countries.
With little or no carryover stocks from 2020 Gu production and inadequate income from agricultural labour during the Deyr season, rural households in particular will likely increase their reliance on stressed or crisis coping strategies, such as the use of loans.
As such, in the context of COVID 19, the reduction of external remittances has had a negative effect on coping strategies. As most urban poor spend a major portion of their income on food, they are also adversely affected by increases in food prices. Both food prices and work opportunities were impacted by COVID 19 in 2020, further aggravating conditions.
High child and maternal mortality rates are of particular concern. Four in 100 Somali children die during the first month of life, 8 in 100 before their first birthday, and 1 in 8 before they turn 5.More than 80 per cent of new born deaths are due to prematurity, asphyxia, complications during birth, or infections such as pneumonia, diarrhoea, measles and neonatal disorders.
The majority of those in need in Somalia are not displaced. For many, the situation worsened in 2020 due to the impacts of the COVID 19 pandemic, Desert Locust and flooding. In total, 4.3 million non displaced vulnerable people in rural and urban areas are anticipated to need humanitarian assistance in 2021, of which 2.5 million people will be targeted for assistance
UNICEF's ongoing humanitarian action focuses on an integrated, inclusive, and multi sectoral response to residual drought impact, displacement, conflict, disease outbreaks and seasonal floods. In line with the 2021 Somalia Humanitarian Response Plan  ( HRP ) , as well as the Centrality of Protection Strategy, UNICEF's priorities are to provide life saving services to address critical malnutrition and excess mortality, effectively respond to mounting protection threats and support resilience building and early recovery.
Most displacement in 2020 occurred between April and August, mainly driven by floods. Although flood related displacements tend to only last between one to three months, they have a lasting impact on the food security and livelihoods of those who have been affected, as they employ more negative coping mechanisms, which further decreases their ability to recover from these shocks.
IDPs and vulnerable people within their communities, notably women, children, minorities, persons with disabilities, persons without any clan affiliation, child and female headed households, children at risk or survivors of violence, abuse, and exploitation  ( particularly children ) , or older persons and unaccompanied and separated children without support structures, are exposed to increased protection risks, such as forced evictions, discrimination based on status, child rights violations and child labour, family separations and GBV, such as rape and sexual assault.
IDPs also have limited livelihood assets and options, and therefore often rely on external humanitarian assistance. The situation has worsened in the COVID 19 pandemic context with declined remittances, increased food prices, and declined employment and income earning opportunities  ( particularly in urban areas ) .
Overall, the 2.6 million IDPs remain the most vulnerable group in Somalia. They are subject to multiple displacements, with insecurity exhausting their coping strategies. Over 60 per cent of IDPs – 1.6 million – are estimated to require humanitarian assistance in 2021, of which 1.58 million will be targeted for assistance.
Across both IDP and non IDPs in rural and urban areas, the most vulnerable requiring prioritized assistance include households with a significant proportion of persons with disabilities or medical conditions, children, older persons, pregnant and lactating women, and persons with minority clan affiliations
182,000 pregnant and lactating women are acutely malnourished.
20% of Somalis will suffer from the direct or indirect impacts of the COVID 19 pandemic in 2021.
Apart from the stigma women and girls face, more broadly they experience inequalities due to gender and cultural beliefs, which leave them facing increased health and protection concerns. Women and girls require careful and specific consideration when it comes to planning and programming in the humanitarian response, and the response of each cluster toward women and girls must factor in these vulnerabilities.
As a result of these drivers of humanitarian needs, the overall number of people in need has consistently increased over the last three years from 4.2 million people in 2019 to 5.2 million in 2020 and 5.9 million in 2021. This is further reflected in the almost 1.3 million people displaced in Somalia in 2020 – the highest number over the past three years, with 884,000 displaced in 2018 and 770,000 in 2019.
Conflict between Somaliland and Puntland over control of parts of Sool and Sanaag regions continues, with hostilities around Tukaraq in both regions. Both sides maintain troops deployed along the front line. Tensions remain high, while efforts to resolve the stand off continue. Clan conflicts remain a major concern, particularly in Hiraan, Galmudug, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle and Sool regions, where clan violence costs lives and livelihoods, and displaces families. Humanitarian programmes in the affected locations are often suspended until the conflict can be resolved.
Key deadlines in the 2020/2021 election process have been missed. Political tensions are already high in Somalia, and the elections risk exacerbating the country's polarized landscape, increasing instability and insecurity. Poor relations continue between the Federal and State levels, which has the potential to further disrupt the election process and fuel violence.
Children with disabilities particularly struggle to access education due to inadequate resources, transport services and learning materials.
In addition, and related to climate shocks, with Cyclone Pawan in December 2019 creating particularly conducive breeding conditions for Desert Locust, Somalia experienced its worst Desert Locust upsurge in 25 years, damaging tens of thousands of hectares of cropland and pasture with potentially severe consequences for agriculture and pastoral based livelihoods.
Meanwhile, common access issues related to sanitation facilities are that toilet facilities are too crowded  ( 27 per cent ) , not functioning  ( 25 per cent )  or unclean  ( 18 per cent ) .
Through this monthly reporting a total of 2,163 <5 children received penta 1 3 in both the mobile outreach project sites as well as the facility base program sites, this has since provided the target beneficiaries enhance access to feasible emergency integrated nutrition and primary health care services.
A particular risk of GBV exists for those who live in open, makeshift and unfinished shelters, with both men and boys, and women and girls reporting not feeling safe in these structures.
It is therefore essential to consult and engage with persons with disabilities when designing WASH facilities and services, in order to avoid further marginalization.
Older persons and persons with minority clan affiliations are also marginalized groups. Protection monitoring data indicates that these groups face barriers to accessing assistance involving, but not limited to, the distribution of physical resources such as cash, food and NFIs.
Persons with disabilities face extreme barriers and stigma in being recognized, accessing resources and feeling valued in their community. Women and girls with disabilities often experience ‘double stigma' due to their gender, putting them at additional risk of GBV. Adequate enablers need to be identified and planned for in the humanitarian response, specific to each cluster, in addressing the barriers faced by persons with disabilities.
Several groups have been identified as at higher risk of being left behind in the Somalia context, and require prioritized assistance. It is important to address the negative barriers that exist for these groups across affected IDP and non IDP population groups.
The magnitude and severity of acute food insecurity in rural areas is expected to increase significantly in 2021, due to the impacts of a below average 2020 Deyr season and a possibly delayed or poor performing 2021 Gu season, as well as the ongoing challenges posed by Desert Locust.
The protracted exposure to climate shocks over the years, coupled with the infestation of Desert Locust and indirect impact of COVID 19, has contributed to a further reduction of the most vulnerable pastoralist and agro pastoralist coping capacities.
HRP identifies 885000 person with disability in need and targeted 600000 people ( 15% )  to respond in 2021.
850000 children under 5 are estimated to be acutely malnourished between Sep 2020 to August 2021 where 143000 are expected to be severely malnourished.
In January 2021, 2,060 instances of chronic diseases were self reported. Importantly, a migrant may present more than one chronic disease. Of the self reported conditions: hypertension 33%, diabetes represented 29%, chronic respiratory diseases 25%, immunity deficiency 10% and cardiovascular disease 3%. Migrants reported the highest levels of chronic diseases in Juba Hoose ( 33% ) , Togdheer ( 30% )  and Gedo ( 24% ) .
Reason for movement: 30% of the migrants interviewed stated that the reason for migration was economic reason, 18% due to forced movement due to natural disasters, 12% due to forced movement due to conflict.
Knowledge of COVID 19 symptoms by migrants being aware: 79% of the interviewed migrants stated that fever is the main symptom of COVID. Similarly, 56% and 54% stated that headache and dry cough are the main symptom of COVID 19 respectively.
58% of the people interviewed were aware of the COVID 19 pandemic. This is quite similar to December 2021 when 57% of the groups were about COVID 19.
In preparation for the rollout of COVID 19 vaccines across the country, the Federal and state Ministries of Health collaborated with WHO and UNICEF to conduct intense training to acquaint technical teams and health workers on COVID 19 vaccination. Trainees had a chance to get to know the characteristics of the Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccines, and learn about vaccine storage, handling and delivery, waste management, injection safety, vaccine delivery strategies, dealing with adverse events following immunization, and increasing demand for and trust in vaccines. They also had the opportunity to refresh their memories on COVID 19 infection prevention and control measures. Meanwhile, in the lead up to vaccination rollout, teams of social mobilizers were also able to strategize on effective ways to engage Somali communities and other partners to prevent the spread of COVID 19.
Somalia's Federal Minister of Health and Human Services HE Dr Fawziya Abikar Nur and her team received the vaccines. The United Nations Secretary General's Special Representative for Somalia James Swan, Deputy Secretary General's Special Representative for Somalia Adam Abdelmoula, and representatives and technical teams from the World Health Organization  ( WHO ) , United Nations Children's Fund  ( UNICEF ) , the European Union Delegation to Somalia  ( EU )  and World Food Programme  ( WFP )  also joined the Federal Minister of Health in the historic moment.
Communication: People in 81% of assessed settlements had reportedly been receiving some information about COVID 19 in the month preceding data collection.
WASH: Most commonly reported strategy of disposing waste, by 39% of assessed settlements was dumping, 32% of of assessed settlements was burning and 32% reported they buried the waste.
WASH: 37% of assessed settlements where half or less of the population was estimated to use latrines reported no available of latrines was the main barriers to using latrines. Similarly 25% of assessed settlements reported the insufficient quantity of latrines was the main barriers to using latrines while 25% reported it is not common to use them as a barrier.
Provided Food basket and water to 1,192 school children at Merka district of lower shabelle region.
Mogadishu Urban: assessment findings indicate GAM and SAM prevalence of 13.2 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. These indicate a Serious nutrition situation which has been sustained since 2019 Deyr  ( i.e. 14.2% in 2019 Deyr and 14.8% in 2020 Gu ) .
Food Security and livelihoods: KIs from 41% of assessed settlements reported people skipping two or more meals per day to cope with a lack of food.
Only 1% of assessed settlements where people were reportedly receiving humanitarian assistance.
Shelter: 52% of the assessed settlements reported that the damaged shelters had not been rebuilt due to lack of money while 23% of the assessed settlements reported that people whose shelters were destroyed moved away so that the damaged shelters had not been rebuilt.
Shelter: 69% of the assessed settlements reported flooding was the main cause to destroy or seriously damaged the shelter while 29% of the assessed settlements reported conflict or looting was the main cause to destroy or seriously damaged the shelter.
Protection/GBV: In 49% of assessed settlements KIs reported that protection services were not available to women from the settlements.
Burao IDPs recorded a GAM Prevalence of 5.8 percent and a SAM prevalence of 1.8 percent in 2020 Deyr indicating an Alert nutrition situation.
Food Security and livelihoods: KIs from 29% of assessed settlements reported people skipping two or more meals per day to cope with a lack of food.
Education: Most commonly reported barriers to access education for girls from the assessed settlements were cost of studies  ( 31% ) , Security  ( 11% ) , Need to support family  ( 8% ) .
In addition, Somalia will have to handle the impact of COVID 19 on the economy. While the overall impact of COVID 19 has been less dire than expected, the pandemic has reduced the country's exports, revenue and remittances from abroad that millions depend on, further impacting poor households.
Monitoring data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project  ( ACLED )  indicates a total of 2,423 incidents leading to 3,122 fatalities across in 2020
Close to 1 million children are estimated to be acutely malnourished, including 162,000 under 5 suffering from life threatening severe malnutrition.
Flooding caused the displacement of 919,000 people in 2020, as well as the destruction of infrastructure, property and 144,000 hectares of agricultural fields. This exacerbated already difficult conditions in some areas, which have yet to recover from the impact of past flooding.
In 2020, despite operational and access challenges, humanitarian organizations provided assistance to nearly 2.3 million people out of a targeted 3 million with 82 per cent per cent of funding received  ( $828 million of $1.01 billion required ) . However, funds were not allocated evenly across clusters, and only three received more than 50 per cent of their budgetary requirements
WASH: 41% of assessed settlements where half or less of the population was estimated to use latrines reported no available of latrines was the main barriers to using latrines. Similarly 31% of assessed settlements reported the insufficient quantity of latrines was the main barriers to using latrines while 22% reported it is not common to use them as a barrier.
839000 children are found to be acutely malnourished in between April June 2021.
An estimated 83,393 people have been displaced due to the water shortages since November 2020 across the country. The Juba and Shabelle river levels are very low for this time of the year. Erratic weather patterns are expected to continue, including an anticipated La Niña, which will aggravate the situation
“While the government has yet to announce the detail criteria for fair distribution of the vaccine, we urge the government to reach frontline health and humanitarian workers with preconditions as a priority as well as elderly or people with underlying health conditions such as diabetes, cancer, HIV, government personnel, marginalized groups including refugees, prisoners, and people living in slums and other crowded housing conditions,' said Halimo Elmi, Acting Director of the Somali NGO Consortium  ( SNC ) .
The vaccine's arrival comes as the country struggles with a second wave of COVID 19 cases. As WHO reported In Somalia, from 3 January 2020 to 23 March 2021, there have been 10,214 confirmed cases of COVID19 with 441 deaths, however testing capacity is low and the estimated real figures are much higher.
To control the virus, enough doses of vaccines need to be produced in different geographies, priced affordably, allocated globally and widely deployed for free in local communities.
On the morning of 15 March 2021, a warm sun shone brightly on an airplane landing at the Mogadishu's Adden Adde International Airport. After one year since the first COVID 19 case was officially confirmed in Somalia, on 16 March 2020, the country received part of the 300 000 doses of Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccines from the COVAX Facility, which will be rolled out in the capital city. This consignment is a first of many, and will be used to protect frontline workers across all states of Somalia, including frontline health workers, the elderly and people with chronic health conditions
Although some livestock births during the gu will offer some milk for consumption, livestock productivity will most likely remain constrained by the impacts of the anticipated, below average gu rainfall and desert locust infestation on rangeland resource availability.
The first batch containing 300,000 doses of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine has been distributed to various cities across Somalia.
With a view to keep key actors informed of the evolution of the outbreak and response needs, WHO regularly briefed the Somali Health Donor Group and Somalia Humanitarian Donor Group and invested in providing timely and reliable information notably through a dashboard that was updated daily.
According to the Food Security Cluster, food assistance reached 24 34 percent of households on average per month from October to December in rural areas of Banderbeyla, Hobyo, Harardhere, and Eyl districts.
77% of assessed settlements where people were reportedly not receiving information about available humanitarian assistance while only 13% are receiving information about available humanitarian assistance.
Fish availability is seasonally high from January to March, but most poor households have significantly reduced income from this source. Fishing, which used to provide 50 percent of annual cash income from sales or labor and a minor source of food in the 2015 baseline year, has both declined in the long term due to foreign overfishing and waste dumps and in the shortterm due to a fall in regional demand during the pandemic and loss of fishing equipment from the cyclone
Recent weather shocks and desert locust are driving Crisis  ( IPC Phase 3 )  outcomes in northeastern and central Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zone, where households were food insecure due to below average rainfall during the preceding 2020 gu season, the long term decline of fish availability, a dip in seafood demand during the pandemic, and depreciation of the SOS. Rainfall during the 2020 deyr started late, was poorly distributed, and ended two weeks early in November.
Although wage labor income and gifts are likely to be seasonally available, high competition for labor opportunities and a sustained level of need for gifts in recent years will limit the expandability of these sources, and these will be inadequate to fill the gap in household income. A high level of indebtedness and the obligation to pay creditors will also likely constrain households' ability to rely on this common coping strategy. Some of the few options available to many poor households will be crisis livelihoods coping strategies such as selling all saleable animals and reducing or eliminating livestock production expenditures.
[ ACTED conducted a needs assessment in Toghdeer, Sool, Sanaag in late February ]  Two thirds of respondents in IDP sites mentioned that there was in increase in the number of arrivals over the past three months. The primary reason for displacement was given as “loss of livelihood due to drought'. In Aynabo, Badhan, Burao districts also observed that new camps were being created to deal with the influx of newly displaced households.
IDP settlements: Without sustained humanitarian food assistance, a significant proportion of the displaced population will lose a key mitigating factor that protects them from having food consumption gaps. Crisis  ( IPC Phase 3 )  outcomes are expected across the IDP settlements.
Despite high goat prices, the limited number of saleable goats among poor households – especially in Northwest Northern Inland Pastoral  ( NIP )  – will constrain household income and thus their ability to purchase their minimum food needs. Livestock value, milk productivity, and herd growth will also be negatively affected by the atypically dry jilaal through March, below average gu rains, and subsequent dry hagaa season, which are anticipated to only partially regenerate pasture and water resources. Further, these weather shocks will place increased pressure on poor households to choose between various essential expenditures, including water, food, and migration related costs
It has been 30 years since Somalia descended into something resembling anarchy. In 1991 Siad Barre, a Soviet backed military dictator, was ousted. The central government collapsed, and a complex civil war broke out between shifting alliances of clans. There have been repeated failed attempts to rebuild a functioning state.
Some households who were directly affected by Cyclone Gati and lost many to most of their livestock, especially in Iskushuban, are expected to have large food consumption gaps indicative of Emergency  ( IPC Phase 4 )
In 2019, substantial funding was provided through the Somalia Humanitarian Fund  ( SHF )   ( 53,4 MUSD )  and the CERF  ( 50 MUSD ) . As of 28 November 2019, 823 million USD has been provided against the 1,08 billion USD appeal  ( 76,5 percent funded ) .
Infrastructure and farming land have been destroyed by excessive flooding and livelihoods disrupted in some of the worst hit areas.
There are about 4.9 million school age children in Somalia, of whom more than 3 million are out of school.
The below normal supply of livestock is sustaining high goat prices, which ranged from 14 to 25 percent above last year and 37 to 59 percent above the five year average in January, and this trend has helped to stabilize the goat to rice terms of trade.
Given that poor households rely on income from livestock production to purchase their food, their access to food is primarily limited by low or unsustainable livestock sales despite relatively favorable terms of trade.
Household income and milk from livestock production are broadly below normal. In addition to weather shocks, the depreciation of the SOS in Puntland has increased the cost of living, which has led households to increase livestock sales in order to cover their expenditures, thereby constraining herd growth.
Among these  ( displaced settlements ) , girls and female headed households are some of the most vulnerable as they face the greatest risk of Gender Based Violence  ( GBV ) .
The Education Cluster is urgently requesting $48.7 million to reach the targeted 374,973 children with Education in Emergencies assistance.
The below average 2020 deyr rainfall season and harsh 2021 jilaal season, as well as Cyclone Gati to a lesser extent, have exacerbated food insecurity among pastoralists in Northern Inland Pastoral  ( NIP )  livelihood zone.
Northern Inland Pastoral and northern and central Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zones are of high concern, where recurrent drought and Cyclone Gati have caused significant livestock losses and destitution for some households, who are likely to remain in Emergency  ( IPC Phase 4 ) .
From February to May, poor households are expected to quickly consume their own produced food stocks from the below average deyr harvest before switching to purchasing their food from the market. Income from recessional cultivation labor during the gu is likely to be low due to episodic flooding and locust damage, as well as limited access to pump irrigation in Gedo and Hiiraan. Both the main gu harvest in July and the off season harvest in September are expected to be inadequate.
Unresolved clan conflicts over land ownership, natural resource management, and other issues in Lower Shabelle, Hiiraan, and Galgaduud are expected to continue at similar levels, which will periodically disrupt trade and normal movement of livestock, people, and goods as well as crop cultivation and agriculture labor opportunities
At the start of the June to September period, a seasonal peak in livestock and milk production from May to July and the availability of the gu harvest in July will likely temporarily alleviate food insecurity. However, given that poor households will quickly deplete their food stocks from the below average gu harvest and will have reduced coping capacity after three consecutive below average crop production seasons, Crisis  ( IPC Phase 3 )  outcomes are expected to rapidly re emerge and become more widespread by August.
Average  ( April June )  gu rainfall : In riverine areas, however, a fourth consecutive season of floods would damage late planted deyr off season crops and suspend gu cultivation. The loss of food and income from agriculture and new displacement would lead to Crisis  ( IPC Phase 3 ) .
Nearly 30 percent of households across Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone do not have access to safe drinking water and only 10 percent of households reported access to a latrine.
Poor households were highly indebted, holding an average debt of approximately USD 260 450 as of December compared to only USD 70 at the time the 2015 baseline data was collected. Based on the current local quality goat price, the average household would have to sell off 6 7 goats in order to pay down their debt.
In the absence of humanitarian food assistance, a significant proportion of households across Northern Inland Pastoral  ( NIP )  are likely to deteriorate to Crisis  ( IPC Phase 3 )  by April and will likely face slight to moderate food consumption gaps through September.
[ WATER, SANITATION & HYGIENE  ( WASH )  LIVING STANDARDS GAP  ( LSG )  ]  Most commonly reported coping mechanisms used to deal with limited availability of water by household of Non  IDP settlement were Rely on less preferred  ( unimproved/untreated )  water sources for drinking water  ( 21% ) , Rely on surface water for drinking water  ( 20% ) .
Significantly below average  ( April June )  gu rainfall : Emergency  ( IPC Phase 4 )  would be likely in some north/central pastoral areas, Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral, Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral, and Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zones.
Urban areas: With economic activity recovering, many urban areas are projected to be Stressed  ( IPC Phase 2 ) . However, households in urban centers in Bari, Gedo, Lower and Middle Juba, Mudug, Sanaag, Sool, and Togdheer regions and Beletweyn and Dhusamareeb districts will likely remain in Crisis  ( IPC Phase 3 ) .
IDP settlements: IDPs are also vulnerable to forced evictions, new displacement, and disease outbreaks in congested informal settlements, which weakens their coping capacity
Significantly below average  ( April June )  gu rainfall : An increase in the Crisis  ( IPC Phase 3 )  population would be likely in southern pastoral livelihood zones.
Significantly below average  ( April June )  gu rainfall : Limited agriculture labor opportunity and crop failure would be likely in most agropastoral livelihood zones, while overall national production could range up to 30 50 percent of long term average.
IDP settlements: Given limited productive assets and low coping capacity, poor households will lack adequate income to purchase sufficient food, especially in light of the anticipated increase in local food prices between now and the gu harvest.
Significantly below average  ( April June )  gu rainfall : Atypical livestock abortions and deaths, significant declines in livestock production and reproduction, and loss of income from livestock and milk sales would also be expected.
In the South, where livestock holdings and purchasing power are higher, some areas are expected to deteriorate from Minimal  ( IPC Phase 1 )  to Stressed  ( IPC Phase 2 ) .
The key downside risks include the climate and a decline in financial flows, notably development assistance and remittances, due to COVID–19.
As a result of eroded coping capacity over two consecutive below average rainfall seasons, additional pastoral areas in northern and central Somalia are expected to deteriorate from Stressed  ( IPC Phase 2 )  to Crisis  ( IPC Phase 3 )  by the start of the secondary pastoral lean season in August/September.
Some 14,590 flood affected people are in need of of shelter and NFIs. 5,590 recently displaced IDPs are in need of urgent cash assistance as many IDPs lost their livelihoods. Some 6,500 displaced people need water, pit latrines and hygiene kits.
At this time, pasture and water will become increasingly limited and households will face difficulty choosing between expenditures on water, food, migration, and livestock inputs body conditions and value is expected to suppress their income from livestock sales.
Significantly below average  ( April June )  gu rainfall : However, riverine areas would likely sustain Stressed  ( IPC Phase 2 )  outcomes, since a lower likelihood of episodic flooding would support late planted deyr crops and gu cultivation.
In pastoral livelihood zones, Stressed  ( IPC Phase 2 )  and Crisis  ( IPC Phase 3 )  outcomes are projected to become increasingly widespread without sustained humanitarian food assistance. The severity of food consumption gaps will be highest in Guban Pastoral, northwestern East Golis Pastoral, Northern Inland Pastoral, northeastern and central Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing, and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones at the peak of the primary pastoral lean season in March/April.
In riverine livelihood zones, food security outcomes are expected to vary based on the likelihood of crop losses caused by a fourth consecutive season of flooding, desert locust, and poor access to irrigation. Crisis  ( IPC Phase 3 )  outcomes are expected in Riverine Pump Irrigation livelihood zone and parts of Riverine Gravity Irrigation livelihood zone with some households in Emergency  ( IPC Phase 4 ) .
In agropastoral livelihood zones, Crisis  ( IPC Phase 3 )  outcomes are expected in Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral, central Cowpea Belt Agropastoral, Togdheer Agropastoral, Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral, and parts of Southern Agropastoral livelihood zones. Further, some households are likely to be in Emergency  ( IPC Phase 4 ) .
The uptick in conflict is expected to continue to cause further loss of life and productive assets, restrict humanitarian access in most of the South, and lead to new displacement.
At the livelihood zone, IDP settlement, and urban level, 4 out of the 34 assessed population groups show Critical  ( 15 29.9 percent GAM WHZ )  levels, with the highest levels observed among IDPs in Mogadishu  ( 16.7 percent ) , Bossasso  ( 15.8 percent ) , and Garowe  ( 15.8 percent )  and the ruralriverine population in the Shabelles  ( 15.8 percent ) .
Desert locust will continue to cause crop and pasture losses across the country, especially in Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, central, and northwestern regions. Breeding in the northwestern coast and the Northeast will result in the emergence of new swarms throughout the scenario period. The northward shift of the seasonal monsoon winds in April/May will also promote swarm movement from Kenya and Ethiopia back into Somalia, coinciding with gu crop cultivation. However, the coastal Somali jet stream may mitigate the spread of locusts in Lower Shabelle, Juba, and Bay regions.
Although food insecurity is a contributing factor, the sustained, high GAM prevalence is also attributed to relatively high morbidity  ( median prevalence of 22.7 percent ) , low immunization and vitamin A supplementation, poor access to sanitation health services, and poor care practices.
In 2020, the Gender Based Violence  ( GBV )  AoR partners continued to provide services using the remote methodologies in response to COVID 19 restrictions. However, there continues to be the need to broaden services to remote locations with high burdens and reporting for Gender Based Violence  ( GBV ) .
Gaps & Constraints : Key informants highlighted the dire financial situation faced by most households in their community and explained that individuals and families do not have the financial means to purchase COVID 19 preventative items such as hand soap, face masks, or other personal protective equipment.
[ HEALTH LIVING STANDARDS GAP  ( LSG )  ]  41% of Households of non IDP settlements have not been able to access healthcare facilities in the six months prior to data collection while 59% of Households of non IDP settlements have been able to access healthcare facilities in the six months prior to data collection.
Deterioration within Alert  ( 5 9.9 percent GAM WHZ )  and Serious levels are expected elsewhere. An estimated 838,900 children under the age of five are expected to be malnourished during the course of 2021, including 143,200 who are likely to be severely malnourished
[ NUTRITION LIVING STANDARDS GAP  ( LSG )  ]  26% of the households of non IDP settlements reported that it takes less than 15 minutes to reach to the nearest nutrition facility while 56% and 15% of the households of non IDP settlements reported it takes 15 30 minutes and 30 60minutes respectively.
Conflict events and the associated increase in extortion payments at illegal roadblocks are anticipated to continue to periodically disrupt population movement – including labor and livestock migration – and trade
An increase in conflict and insecurity related to parliamentary and presidential elections is expected in south central Somalia in the near term, with attacks primarily targeting the Federal Government of Somalia  ( FGS )  personnel and AMISOM  [ African Union Mission in Somalia ]  troops, especially in Banadir, Gedo, Juba, and Shabelle regions.
Based on the preceding, below average rainfall season in late 2020 and current above average temperatures, the remainder of the January to March jilaal dry season will continue to be drier and hotter than normal, especially in most of northern Somalia and Gedo. Further depletion of rangeland and water resources is expected in the near term.
Although the market cereal supply is expected to tighten, price hikes will most likely be mitigated by the availability of stocks from the above average gu 2020 harvest, below average deyr 2020/21 harvest, and sorghum and maize imports from Ethiopia. Prices are expected to reach their peak in June, prior to the gu harvest in July.
Urban areas: Nearly 10 percent of the total urban population  ( 5.2 million )  is estimated to be in Crisis  ( IPC Phase 3 )  or Emergency  ( IPC Phase 4 ) , based on household survey data collected in 11 urban centers. The share of the population that is still in need of food assistance at the urban area level is highest in Kismayo, Bossasso, Burao, Dolow, Hargeisa, Galkacyo, and Beledweyn.
92,150 Refugee Returnees  ( 2014   2021 ) : This figure includes Voluntary Repatriation from Kenya  ( 85,171 )  and Assisted Spontaneous Returnees  ( ASR )  from Yemen  ( 5,416 )  as well as 1,563 returnees from other countries such as Djibouti  ( 773 ) , Libya  ( 469 ) , Sudan  ( 143 ) , Eritrea  ( 34 ) , Angola, Tunisia, Pakistan, Gambia and others. Somali refugees from these or other countries who return spontaneously without assistance from UNHCR are not included.
Insecurity continues to hamper the ability of humanitarian workers to reach persons in need and sustain operations for the delivery of much needed humanitarian assistance and protection services. In addition, it impedes people's ability to obtain access to basic services and assistance
Despite the political progress and ongoing efforts to strengthen Government institutions, the Ministry of Education continues to lack the capacity and adequate resources to deliver basic and quality education services for IDP children living on the cusp of ongoing conflict and marginalized groups living under the most challenging circumstances. This results in 1.4 million crisis affected children, 705,615 of whom are girls, urgently needing education assistance in 2021
Internally displaced person  ( IDP )  settlements: Over 20 percent of the total IDP population  ( 2.65 milllion )  is in Crisis  ( IPC Phase 3 )  or Emergency  ( IPC Phase 4 ) , based on household survey data collected in 15 settlements. Many IDP settlements  ( 7 out of 15 )  are classified in Crisis  ( IPC Phase 3 ) , though food security outcome indicator data suggests humanitarian food assistance is supporting Stressed!  ( IPC Phase 2! )  outcomes in Beledweyne, Dhusamareeb, Dolow, Kismayo, Galkayo, and Hargeisa.
Conflict and insecurity periodically impede livelihood activities, crop losses were significant, and food access is below optimal levels among poor, labor dependent households, who continue to depend on credit to purchase food and essential non food items.
In these areas  [ Hiraan, Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Marka ]  households lost a greater share of their crops to floods or desert locusts and realized a more extensive loss of agricultural labor income during the main deyr season, which was the third consecutive season of flooding within the past two years.
5,416 refugee returnees from Yemen  ( 2015   2021 ) .In addition to the 5,416 Assisted Spontaneous Returns  ( ASR )  since 2017, approximately 39,736 Somalis were monitored  [ by UNHCR ]  as arriving from Yemen since March 2015.
Conflict and displacement: According to UNHCR and the Protection and Return Monitoring Network  ( PRMN ) , nearly 661,000 persons were displaced between July and Dec 2020. About 69 percent  ( 456,090 )  of the displaced cited floods as the cause of displacement, while 14 percent each cited conflict/insecurity and lack of livelihoods as the cause of displacement. Most displacements occurred in Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, and Banadir regions from July to September as well as in November, mainly driven by floods.
In the South, declining goat prices and rising cereal prices have led to a decline in the goat to cereals terms of trade, which ranged from 5 to 15 percent below the January 2020 and five year averages across key reference markets in January.
Based on the average exchange rate recorded in Garowe, Bossasso, and Ceerigabo markets, the Puntland shilling has depreciated 45 percent since August 2015 and nearly 15 percent since January 2020. The decline is related to problems with counterfeit currency, expansion of the money supply by Puntland government authorities, and rejection of the SOS in tax collection.
The pandemic has a non linear pattern in Somalia, with different peaks at different times. The peaks correspond to the number of samples tested and do not necessarily represent a true increase in the number of cases.
HRP identified 2 million people in need of general protection and targeted 2 million people to provide general protection response. There are 24 partners and 24 project working for general protection.
Outside major urban centres, the accessibility of some districts, in particular in southern and central regions, remains limited owing in large part to insecurity along main supply routes
5,900,000 people in need  ( Humanitarian Needs Overview December 2020 )
The health sector is overburdened, remaining fragmented, under resourced and ill equipped to provide life saving and preventive services
Currently, high levels of sustained humanitarian assistance and Government support have played a critical role in preventing worse acute food insecurity outcomes in Somalia.
1,563 refugee returnees from other countries  ( 2015   2021 )  ) . Returns from other countries include Djibouti  ( 773 ) , Libya  ( 469 ) , Sudan  ( 143 ) , Eritrea  ( 34 ) , Angola, Tunisia, Pakistan, Gambia and others.
Measures to combat waterborne and communicable diseases, including immunization, are lacking in many areas. Mental health issues further impact population wellbeing, without services to avert long term harm. Longer term wellbeing and productivity are threatened by malnutrition, traumatic injury and non communicable illness. Survivors of GBV, facing stigmatization and difficulties accessing safe and appropriate services, are now at even greater risk with COVID 19.
To allow humanitarian workers access to key locations to serve affected populations, the UN Humanitarian Air Service  ( UNHAS )  provides safe, reliable and effective inter agency transport services, with regularly scheduled flights into and within Somalia.
At the start of the rainfall season in October, most northern and central pastoral areas were benefitting from normal to above normal pasture availability following locally above average 2020 gu rainfall. However, as rainfall deficits and desert locust damage accumulated across the country over the course of the 2020 deyr season, vegetation deficits emerged.
Malnutrition continues to be a major humanitarian challenge among the vulnerable segments of Somalia, although the 2020 post Gu assessment showed some improvement in the overall situation. In 2021, the emergency nutrition needs will remain high in Somalia due to the likely development of drought conditions, and without any nutrition assistance the situation may worsen.
[ EDUCATION LIVING STANDARDS GAP  ( LSG )  ]  31% of the households of non IDP settlements reported that it takes less than 15 minutes to reach to the nearest education facility while 34% and 13% of the households of non IDP settlements reported it takes 15 30 minutes and 30 60minutes to reach to the nearest education facility respectively. Only 1% of the households of non IDP settlements reported that it takes 1 3 hours and more than 3 hours to reach to the nearest education facility.
Water shortages had led to notable price increases in some areas, given that reliance on purchased water and water trucking began earlier than normal. In January, the price of a drum of water in Bossasso and Garowe was 18 percent and 60 percent above January 2020, respectively.
In Rabdhure, prices are increasing compared to last week due to scarcity and some food items are out of stock. For instance, local cereals increased by 1% to 20% and imported food items increased by 3% to 9% compared to last week.
Child Protection: HRP identified 1.8 million children in need of child protection and targeted 1.2 million children to provide protection response. There are 45 partners and 45 project working for child protection.