text:   and Random Surveys",4,"['New paper on arXiv: ""Estimating SARS-CoV-2 Infections from Deaths, Confirmed Cases, Tests, and Random Surveys"" w Nick Irons: <LINK> 1/4 <LINK>', ""Most data sources for estimating Covid incidence &amp; prevalence are biased or delayed: cases underestimate, positivity rate overestimates, deaths data are delayed, hospitalizations aren't comparable between states. Random testing surveys are the least biased, but rare &amp; delayed 2/4"", 'We propose a Bayesian estimation method for all states that bias-corrects and combines number of cases, test positivity rates &amp; deaths, and anchors them with the few random testing surveys that have been done, in Indiana &amp; Ohio. 3/4', 'Results for USA to Feb 25: \n- Cumulative undercount factor: 2.2. \n- Initial undercount (to April 15, 2020): 11.1.\n- Cumulative incidence 18.4% of population (61M)\n- current reproductive rate R: 0.87\n- decline of infections since peak of cases on Jan 8: 70%\n4/4']",21,02,915