text: 257,29,1176881065941721088,532752544,Michael Lopez,"I'm going to ask a question that no one expects me to: Did we get fourth down analysis (partially) wrong?  A new paper about the challenges of analyzing traditional NFL data, and where player tracking data can help. <LINK> <LINK> Here's why: teams that went for it on 4th-and-1's were, on average, 20% closer to the line to gain than teams that did not go for it on 4th-and-1. We weren't comparing apples to apples when looking at fourth down strategy, even when we thought we were. <LINK> The article I've shared above is (hopefully) the introduction to this special JQAS issue. If you are reading the article and wondering why there is some blank space, it depends on which articles are accepted <LINK> @Mike_Champagne Player-level data would potentially help strategy, although it's not the once I focused on here @rtelmore That was the idea of an anonymous but intelligent reviewer. Idea is to imagine offense moving forward @zbinney_NFLinj Not something to ignore, and likely a sensitivity analysis would be appropriate. I used a second identification strategy (footnote 2, page 4) and the differences were magnified. Additionally, I'm assuming measurement error differences are independent of yardage remaining @903124S In the paper, those same contextual factors are accounted for",https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.10631,"Most historical National Football League (NFL) analysis, both mainstream and academic, has relied on public, play-level data to generate team and player comparisons. Given the number of oft omitted variables that impact on-field results, such as play call, game situation, and opponent strength, findings tend to be more anecdotal than actionable. With the release of player tracking data, however, analysts can better ask and answer questions to isolate skill and strategy. In this article, we highlight the limitations of traditional analyses, and use a decades-old punching bag for analysts, fourth-down strategy, as a microcosm for why tracking data is needed. Specifically, we assert that, in absence of using the precise yardage needed for a first down, past findings supporting an aggressive fourth down strategy may have been overstated. Next, we synthesize recent work that comprises this special Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports issue into player tracking data in football. Finally, we conclude with some best practices and limitations regarding usage of this data. The release of player tracking data marks a transition for the league and its' analysts, and we hope this issue helps guide innovation in football analytics for years to come. ","Bigger data, better questions, and a return to fourth down behavior: an