nils-herrmann/clean_scirepeval huggingface dataset:
Median Selection Subset Aggregation for Parallel Inference

For massive data sets, efficient computation commonly relies on distributed algorithms that store and process subsets of the data on different machines, minimizing communication costs. Our focus is on regression and classification problems involving many features. A variety of distributed algorithms have been proposed in this context, but challenges arise in defining an algorithm with low communication, theoretical guarantees and excellent practical performance in general settings. We propose a MEdian Selection Subset AGgregation Estimator (message) algorithm, which attempts to solve these problems. The algorithm applies feature selection in parallel for each subset using Lasso or another method, calculates the 'median' feature inclusion index, estimates coefficients for the selected features in parallel for each subset, and then averages these estimates. The algorithm is simple, involves very minimal communication, scales efficiently in both sample and feature size, and has theoretical guarantees. In particular, we show model selection consistency and coefficient estimation efficiency. Extensive experiments show excellent performance in variable selection, estimation, prediction, and computation time relative to usual competitors.
The Kerr-Newman metric: A Review

The Kerr-Newman metric describes a very special rotating, charged mass and is the most general of the asymptotically flat stationary 'black hole' solutions to the Einstein-Maxwell equations of general relativity. We review the derivation of this metric from the Reissner-Nordstrom solution by means of a complex transformation algorithm and provide a brief overview of its basic geometric properties. We also include some discussion of interpretive issues, related metrics, and higher-dimensional analogues.
Stochastic Blockmodeling for Online Advertising

Online advertising is an important and huge industry. Having knowledge of the website attributes can contribute greatly to business strategies for ad-targeting, content display, inventory purchase or revenue prediction. In this paper, we introduce a stochastic blockmodeling for the website relations induced by the event of online user visitation. We propose two clustering algorithms to discover the intrinsic structures of websites, and compare the performance with a goodness-of-fit method and a deterministic graph partitioning method. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms on both simulation and AOL website dataset.
Effects of Social Influence in Peer Online Recommendation

Web site providers often use peer recommendation to help people find interesting content. A common method for leveraging opinions of others on these web sites is to display the number of prior recommendations as a social signal. How people react to these social influence signals, in combination with other effects, such as the quality of content and its presentation order, determines how many recommendations content receives. Using Amazon Mechanical Turk, we experimentally measure the effects of social influence on user decisions to recommend content. Specifically, after controlling for variation in content quality and position, we find that social influence affects outcomes of peer recommendation about half as much as position and quality do. These effects are somewhat correlated, increasing the inequality of popularity in the presence of social influence. Further, we find that social influence changes people's preferences, creating a "herding" effect that biases their judgements about the content. While similar adverse outcomes have been noted in previous studies, we demonstrate a benefit of social influence: namely, it reduces the effort devoted to evaluating content without significantly diminishing the performance of peer recommendation.
The symmetry and simplicity of the laws of physics and the Higgs boson

We describe the theoretical ideas, developed between the 1950s–1970s, which led to the prediction of the Higgs boson, the particle that was discovered in 2012. The forces of nature are based on symmetry principles. We explain the nature of these symmetries through an economic analogy. We also discuss the Higgs mechanism, which is necessary to avoid some of the naive consequences of these symmetries, and to explain various features of elementary particles.
Online and Stochastic Gradient Methods for Non-decomposable Loss Functions

Modern applications in sensitive domains such as biometrics and medicine frequently require the use of non-decomposable loss functions such as [email protected]k, F-measure etc. Compared to point loss functions such as hinge-loss, these offer much more fine grained control over prediction, but at the same time present novel challenges in terms of algorithm design and analysis. In this work we initiate a study of online learning techniques for such non-decomposable loss functions with an aim to enable incremental learning as well as design scalable solvers for batch problems. To this end, we propose an online learning framework for such loss functions. Our model enjoys several nice properties, chief amongst them being the existence of efficient online learning algorithms with sublinear regret and online to batch conversion bounds. Our model is a provable extension of existing online learning models for point loss functions. We instantiate two popular losses, Prec@k and pAUC, in our model and prove sublinear regret bounds for both of them. Our proofs require a novel structural lemma over ranked lists which may be of independent interest. We then develop scalable stochastic gradient descent solvers for non-decomposable loss functions. We show that for a large family of loss functions satisfying a certain uniform convergence property (that includes Prec@k, pAUC, and F-measure), our methods provably converge to the empirical risk minimizer. Such uniform convergence results were not known for these losses and we establish these using novel proof techniques. We then use extensive experimentation on real life and benchmark datasets to establish that our method can be orders of magnitude faster than a recently proposed cutting plane method.
Bayesian Manifold Learning: The Locally Linear Latent Variable Model (LL-LVM)

We introduce the Locally Linear Latent Variable Model (LL-LVM), a probabilistic model for non-linear manifold discovery that describes a joint distribution over observations, their manifold coordinates and locally linear maps conditioned on a set of neighbourhood relationships. The model allows straightforward variational optimisation of the posterior distribution on coordinates and locally linear maps from the latent space to the observation space given the data. Thus, the LL-LVM encapsulates the local-geometry preserving intuitions that underlie non-probabilistic methods such as locally linear embedding (LLE). Its probabilistic semantics make it easy to evaluate the quality of hypothesised neighbourhood relationships, select the intrinsic dimensionality of the manifold, construct out-of-sample extensions and to combine the manifold model with additional probabilistic models that capture the structure of coordinates within the manifold.
Scalable Nonparametric Bayesian Inference on Point Processes with Gaussian Processes

In this paper we propose an efficient, scalable non-parametric Gaussian process model for inference on Poisson point processes. Our model does not resort to gridding the domain or to introducing latent thinning points. Unlike competing models that scale as O(n3) over n data points, our model has a complexity O(nk2) where k ≪ n. We propose a MCMC sampler and show that the model obtained is faster, more accurate and generates less correlated samples than competing approaches on both synthetic and real-life data. Finally, we show that our model easily handles data sizes not considered thus far by alternate approaches.
qGaussian model of default

We present the qGaussian generalization of the Merton framework, which takes into account slow fluctuations of the volatility of the firms market value of financial assets. The minimal version of the model depends on the Tsallis entropic parameter q and the generalized distance to default. The empirical foundation and implications of the model are illustrated by the study of 645 North American industrial firms during the financial crisis, 2006 - 2012. All defaulters in the sample have exceptionally large, corresponding to unusually fat-tailed unconditional distributions of log-asset-returns. Using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves, we demonstrate the high forecasting power of the model in prediction of 1-year defaults. Our study suggests that the level of complexity of the realized time series, quantified by q, should be taken into account to improve valuations of default risk.
Multiquark cluster form factors in the relativistic harmonic oscillator model

A QCD multiquark cluster system is studied in the relativistic harmonic oscillator potential model (RHOPM), and the electromagnetic form factors of the pion, proton and deuteron in the RHOPM are predicted. The calculated theoretical results are then compared with existing experimental data, finding very good agreement between the theoretical predictions and experimental data for these three target particles. We claim that this model can be applied to study QCD hadronic properties, particularly neutron properties, and to find six-quark cluster and/or nine-quark cluster probabilities in light nuclei such as helium He-3 and tritium H-3. This is a problem of particular importance and interest in quark nuclear physics.
Are news important to predict large losses

In this paper we investigate the impact of news to predict extreme financial returns using high frequency data. We consider several model specifications differing for the dynamic property of the underlying stochastic process as well as for the innovation process. Since news are essentially qualitative measures, they are firstly transformed into quantitative measures which are subsequently introduced as exogenous regressors into the conditional volatility dynamics. Three basic sentiment indexes are constructed starting from three list of words defined by historical market news response and by a discriminant analysis. Models are evaluated in terms of their predictive accuracy to forecast out-of-sample Value-at-Risk of the STOXX Europe 600 sectors at different confidence levels using several statistic tests and the Model Confidence Set procedure of Hansen et al. (2011). Since the Hansen's procedure usually delivers a set of models having the same VaR predictive ability, we propose a new forecasting combination technique that dynamically weights the VaR predictions obtained by the models belonging to the optimal final set. Our results confirms that the inclusion of exogenous information as well as the right specification of the returns' conditional distribution significantly decrease the number of actual versus expected VaR violations towards one, as this is especially true for higher confidence levels.
An aggregation method for sparse logistic regression

$L_1$ regularized logistic regression has now become a workhorse of data mining and bioinformatics: it is widely used for many classification problems, particularly ones with many features. However, $L_1$ regularization typically selects too many features and that so-called false positives are unavoidable. In this paper, we demonstrate and analyze an aggregation method for sparse logistic regression in high dimensions. This approach linearly combines the estimators from a suitable set of logistic models with different underlying sparsity patterns and can balance the predictive ability and model interpretability. Numerical performance of our proposed aggregation method is then investigated using simulation studies. We also analyze a published genome-wide case-control dataset to further evaluate the usefulness of the aggregation method in multilocus association mapping.
A provable SVD-based algorithm for learning topics in dominant admixture corpus

Topic models, such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), posit that documents are drawn from admixtures of distributions over words, known as topics. The inference problem of recovering topics from such a collection of documents drawn from admixtures, is NP-hard. Making a strong assumption called separability,  gave the first provable algorithm for inference. For the widely used LDA model,  gave a provable algorithm using clever tensor-methods. But [4, 6] do not learn topic vectors with bounded l1 error (a natural measure for probability vectors). 
 
Our aim is to develop a model which makes intuitive and empirically supported assumptions and to design an algorithm with natural, simple components such as SVD, which provably solves the inference problem for the model with bounded l1 error. A topic in LDA and other models is essentially characterized by a group of co-occurring words. Motivated by this, we introduce topic specific Catchwords, a group of words which occur with strictly greater frequency in a topic than any other topic individually and are required to have high frequency together rather than individually. A major contribution of the paper is to show that under this more realistic assumption, which is empirically verified on real corpora, a singular value decomposition (SVD) based algorithm with a crucial pre-processing step of thresholding, can provably recover the topics from a collection of documents drawn from Dominant admixtures. Dominant admixtures are convex combination of distributions in which one distribution has a significantly higher contribution than the others. Apart from the simplicity of the algorithm, the sample complexity has near optimal dependence on w0, the lowest probability that a topic is dominant, and is better than . Empirical evidence shows that on several real world corpora, both Catchwords and Dominant admixture assumptions hold and the proposed algorithm substantially outperforms the state of the art .
Extraction of the intrinsic light-quark sea in the proton

The HERMES collaboration recently reported a reevaluation of the strange-quark parton distribution, $S(x)$, based on kaon production in semi-inclusive deep-inelastic scattering. Two distinct results on $S(x)$ at the $x> 0.1$ region, one with a sizable magnitude and another with a vanishing content, were reported. We show that the latter result is due to a particular assumption adopted in the analysis. The impact of the new HERMES $S(x)$ result on the extraction of intrinsic light-quark sea in the proton is discussed. Given the large uncertainty in the kaon fragmentation function, we find that the latest HERMES data do not exclude the existence of a significant intrinsic strange-quark sea in the proton. The $x$ dependence of the $(s+\bar s)/(\bar u+ \bar d)$ ratio is also in qualitative agreement with the presence of intrinsic strange-quark sea.
A Novel Statistical Method Based on Dynamic Models for Classification

Realizations of stochastic process are often observed temporal data or functional data. There are growing interests in classification of dynamic or functional data. The basic feature of functional data is that the functional data have infinite dimensions and are highly correlated. An essential issue for classifying dynamic and functional data is how to effectively reduce their dimension and explore dynamic feature. However, few statistical methods for dynamic data classification have directly used rich dynamic features of the data. We propose to use second order ordinary differential equation (ODE) to model dynamic process and principal differential analysis to estimate constant or time-varying parameters in the ODE. We examine differential dynamic properties of the dynamic system across different conditions including stability and transient-response, which determine how the dynamic systems maintain their functions and performance under a broad range of random internal and external perturbations. We use the parameters in the ODE as features for classifiers. As a proof of principle, the proposed methods are applied to classifying normal and abnormal QRS complexes in the electrocardiogram (ECG) data analysis, which is of great clinical values in diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases. We show that the ODE-based classification methods in QRS complex classification outperform the currently widely used neural networks with Fourier expansion coefficients of the functional data as their features. We expect that the dynamic model-based classification methods may open a new avenue for functional data classification.
Probabilistic Definitions of Actual Causation Using CP-logic

Since Pearl's seminal work on providing a formal language for causality, the subject has garnered a lot of interest among philosophers and researchers in artificial intelligence alike. One of the most debated topics in this context regards the notion of actual causation, which concerns itself with specific - as opposed to general - causal claims. The search for a proper formal definition of actual causation has evolved into a controversial debate, that is pervaded with ambiguities and confusion. The goal of our research is twofold. First, we wish to provide a clear way to compare competing definitions. Second, we also want to improve upon these definitions so they can be applied to a more diverse range of instances, including non-deterministic ones. To achieve these goals we will provide a general, abstract definition of actual causation, formulated in the context of the expressive language of CP-logic (Causal Probabilistic logic). We will then show that three recent definitions by Ned Hall (originally formulated for structural models) and a definition of our own (formulated for CP-logic directly) can be viewed and directly compared as instantiations of this abstract definition, which allows them to deal with a broader range of examples.
Concavity of reweighted Kikuchi approximation

We analyze a reweighted version of the Kikuchi approximation for estimating the log partition function of a product distribution defined over a region graph. We establish sufficient conditions for the concavity of our reweighted objective function in terms of weight assignments in the Kikuchi expansion, and show that a reweighted version of the sum product algorithm applied to the Kikuchi region graph will produce global optima of the Kikuchi approximation whenever the algorithm converges. When the region graph has two layers, corresponding to a Bethe approximation, we show that our sufficient conditions for concavity are also necessary. Finally, we provide an explicit characterization of the polytope of concavity in terms of the cycle structure of the region graph. We conclude with simulations that demonstrate the advantages of the reweighted Kikuchi approach.
Heteroscedastic Treed Bayesian Optimisation

Optimising black-box functions is important in many disciplines, such as tuning machine learning models, robotics, finance and mining exploration. Bayesian optimisation is a state-of-the-art technique for the global optimisation of black-box functions which are expensive to evaluate. At the core of this approach is a Gaussian process prior that captures our belief about the distribution over functions. However, in many cases a single Gaussian process is not flexible enough to capture non-stationarity in the objective function. Consequently, heteroscedasticity negatively affects performance of traditional Bayesian methods. In this paper, we propose a novel prior model with hierarchical parameter learning that tackles the problem of non-stationarity in Bayesian optimisation. Our results demonstrate substantial improvements in a wide range of applications, including automatic machine learning and mining exploration.
Exact and Heuristic Algorithms for Semi-Nonnegative Matrix Factorization

Given a matrix $M$ (not necessarily nonnegative) and a factorization rank $r$, semi-nonnegative matrix factorization (semi-NMF) looks for a matrix $U$ with $r$ columns and a nonnegative matrix $V$ with $r$ rows such that $UV$ is the best possible approximation of $M$ according to some metric. In this paper, we study the properties of semi-NMF from which we develop exact and heuristic algorithms. Our contribution is threefold. First, we prove that the error of a semi-NMF of rank $r$ has to be smaller than the best unconstrained approximation of rank $r-1$. This leads us to a new initialization procedure based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) with a guarantee on the quality of the approximation. Second, we propose an exact algorithm (that is, an algorithm that finds an optimal solution), also based on the SVD, for a certain class of matrices (including nonnegative irreducible matrices) from which we derive an initialization for matrices not belonging to that class. Numerical experiments illustrate that this second approach performs extremely well, and allows us to compute optimal semi-NMF decompositions in many situations. Finally, we analyze the computational complexity of semi-NMF proving its NP-hardness, already in the rank-one case (that is, for $r = 1$), and we show that semi-NMF is sometimes ill-posed (that is, an optimal solution does not exist).
A Greedy Homotopy Method for Regression with Nonconvex Constraints

The goal of this paper is to estimate sparse linear regression models, where for a given partition G of input variables, the selected variables are chosen from a diverse set of groups in G. We consider a novel class of nonconvex constraint functions, and develop RepLasso, a greedy homotopy method that exploits geometrical properties of the constraint functions to build a sequence of suitably adapted convex surrogate problems. We prove that in some situations RepLasso recovers the global minima path of the nonconvex problem. Moreover, even if it does not recover the global minima, we prove that it will often do no worse than the Lasso in terms of (signed) support recovery, while in practice outperforming it. We show empirically that the strategy can also be used to improve over various other Lasso-style algorithms. Finally, a GWAS of ankylosing spondylitis highlights our method’s practical utility.
Multiple Output Regression with Latent Noise

In high-dimensional data, structured noise caused by observed and unobserved factors affecting multiple target variables simultaneously, imposes a serious challenge for modeling, by masking the often weak signal. Therefore, (1) explaining away the structured noise in multiple-output regression is of paramount importance. Additionally, (2) assumptions about the correlation structure of the regression weights are needed. We note that both can be formulated in a natural way in a latent variable model, in which both the interesting signal and the noise are mediated through the same latent factors. Under this assumption, the signal model then borrows strength from the noise model by encouraging similar effects on correlated targets. We introduce a hyperparameter for the latent signal-to-noise ratio which turns out to be important for modelling weak signals, and an ordered infinite-dimensional shrinkage prior that resolves the rotational unidentifiability in reduced-rank regression models. Simulations and prediction experiments with metabolite, gene expression, FMRI measurement, and macroeconomic time series data show that our model equals or exceeds the state-of-the-art performance and, in particular, outperforms the standard approach of assuming independent noise and signal models.