Query: transportation energy

title: Urban form and transportation energy consumption
abstract: Transportation energy is a significant portion of the energy consumption of the US economy. While various policies such as changing the fuel mix and alternative fuels are proposed to make the system more efficient, the efficacy of land use policies such as changing the urban form and densification have been subject to considerable debate. In this paper, I use a rich dataset compiled from different sources to test the effectiveness of urban form on energy consumption in the transportation sector. I proxy the consumption with retail sales from gas stations for most of the conterminous United States at a county level. Using demographic, economic and landscape characteristics, I tease out the effect of different dimensions of urban form on energy consumption. I find that compact and contiguous urban form is modestly associated with lower energy consumption and is more important than demographic concentration in explaining the variance.

title: The impact of air railways transportation, energy demand, bilateral aid flows, and population density on environmental degradation: Evidence from a panel of next 11 countries
abstract: Transportation considers the highly volatile sector that deteriorates the environment with carbon dioxide (CO2) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Such emissions are not only responsible for climate change, but also escalate the natural resource rents that are mediated with national scale economic indicators to diffuse the sustainability agenda across the globe. This study mainly focused on air railways transportation, energy demand, bilateral aid flows, population density and environmental degradation in a panel of Next 11 countries, for the period of 1975 2015. The results confirmed the existence of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for air railways passengers carried and per capita income with CO2 emissions, while there is a U shaped relationship between railways passengers carried and GHG emissions. The monotonic increasing relationship of air transport passengers carried and bilateral aid flow is established with the natural resource rents. Railways goods transported, energy demand, and population density escalates CO2 emissions, while energy demand and population density further increase GHG emissions. The air transport freight has a positive relationship with the GHG emissions and negative relationship with the natural resource rents in a panel of countries. The causality estimates confirmed the bidirectional relationship of environmental factors and railways transportation with the per capita income, while there is a unidirectional causality running from energy to bilateral aid and growth. The results of variance decomposition analysis show that air transport passengers carried, energy demand, and bilateral aid is the key predictor that will largely influence CO2 emissions, GHG emissions, and natural resource rents, for the next ten year period.

title: Impacts and implications of climatic extremes for resilience planning of transportation energy: A case study of New York city
abstract: An integrated alternative planning can control climate change drivers and mitigate or neutralize the adverse impacts of the changing climate on the transportation energy sector. In this article, we introduced an infrastructure of alternative fuel as a synergistic approach to climate adaptation and mitigation, and advanced a quantitative method to simulate the dependency of travel behavior on fuel availability when the infrastructure of transportation energy is stressed or under attack. Our approach allows both commuters traveling behavior and properties of transportation energy system to interact. Featuring a multi stage mathematical program, the proposed model was used to study the resilience of New York City's transportation energy sector in the face of a range of climatic extremes. We found the impact of the changing climate on energy sector is major and worsening over time. The modeling results also reveal spatial distribution of vulnerable elements in both transportation and fueling infrastructures, the system's overall resilience in time of disaster, and the daily commuters impact of vulnerable energy infrastructure. The modeling results are crucial to successful integrated planning response to climate adaptation and mitigation.

title: Trends in onroad transportation energy and emissions
abstract: Globally, 1.3 billion on road vehicles consume 79 quadrillion BTU of energy, mostly gasoline and diesel fuels, emit 5.7 gigatonnes of CO2, and emit other pollutants to which approximately 200,000 annual premature deaths are attributed. Improved vehicle energy efficiency and emission controls have helped offset growth in vehicle activity. New technologies are diffusing into the vehicle fleet in response to fuel efficiency and emission standards. Empirical assessment of vehicle emissions is challenging because of myriad fuels and technologies, intervehicle variability, multiple emission processes, variability in operating conditions, and varying capabilities of measurement methods. Fuel economy and emissions regulations have been effective in reducing total emissions of key pollutants. Real world fuel use and emissions are consistent with official values in the United States but not in Europe or countries that adopt European standards. Portable emission measurements systems, which uncovered a recent emissions cheating scandal, have a key role in regulatory programs to ensure conformity between "real driving emissions" and emission standards. The global vehicle fleet will experience tremendous growth, especially in Asia. Although existing data and modeling tools are useful, they are often based on convenience samples, small sample sizes, large variability, and unquantified uncertainty. Vehicles emit precursors to several important secondary pollutants, including ozone and secondary organic aerosols, which requires a multipollutant emissions and air quality management strategy. Gasoline and diesel are likely to persist as key energy sources to mid century. Adoption of electric vehicles is not a panacea with regard to greenhouse gas emissions unless coupled with policies to change the power generation mix. Depending on how they are actually implemented and used, autonomous vehicles could lead to very large reductions or increases in energy consumption. Numerous other trends are addressed with regard to technology, emissions controls, vehicle operations, emission measurements, impacts on exposure, and impacts on public health.  Without specific policies to the contrary, fossil fuels are likely to continue to be the major source of on road vehicle energy consumption. Fuel economy and emission standards are generally effective in achieving reductions per unit of vehicle activity. However, the number of vehicles and miles traveled will increase. Total energy use and emissions depend on factors such as fuels, technologies, land use, demographics, economics, road design, vehicle operation, societal values, and others that affect demand for transportation, mode choice, energy use, and emissions. Thus, there are many opportunities to influence future trends in vehicle energy use and emissions.

title: Climate adaptive planning for the long term resilience of transportation energy infrastructure
abstract: This paper investigates a long term planning response to the climate vulnerability of transportation energy infrastructure in the borough of Manhattan, NY. The proposed model, a two stage stochastic optimization, features a hybrid utility regret function with increasing relative and decreasing absolute risk aversion. Modeling results suggest (1) investment in early and late stage resilience enhancing solutions as a complementary approach with significant weight on immediate actions, and (2) a decentralized supply chain formation through an early stage deployment of reservoir tanks within the case study area.

title: Estimating transportation energy demand in Turkey using the artificial bee colony algorithm
abstract: In this study, three different mathematical models were proposed to estimate transportation energy demand of Turkey using the artificial bee colony algorithm. In the development of the models, gross domestic product, population and total annual vehicle km were taken as parameters. For transportation energy demand estimations, linear, exponential and quadratic forms of mathematical expressions were used. A 44 year old historical data from 1970 to 2013 were utilized for the training and testing stages of the models. The performances of the models were then evaluated by six different global error measurement approaches. The models that were developed were used in two possible scenarios to forecast transportation energy demand of Turkey for a 21 year period from 2014 to 2034. Artificial bee colony algorithm revealed the suitability of the optimization method for transportation energy planning and policy developments in Turkey. Furthermore, the results obtained from scenarios indicated that the energy demand of Turkey will be double that of 2013 by 2034.

title: Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China
abstract: In this paper, we first analyze the historical trends in road transportation energy consumption and GDP in developed economies to find out the development characteristics of road energy consumption. The two indexes present obvious 'S' type patterns. Then, in order to explore the current status and future trend of road energy transportation in China, we employ path analysis to analyze the impact mechanism of the factors related to road transportation energy consumption. Next, we adopt the BMA model to select the core factors related to road transportation energy consumption in China, and on the basis of the model selection as well as univariate (ETS ARIMA models) and multivariate (multiple regression) models, the road transportation energy consumption is analyzed and forecast. The results showed that the road transportation energy consumption rises by 0.33 percent for every percent increase in GDP and by 1.26 percentage points for every percent increase in urbanization. The road transportation energy consumption in China is expected to reach around 226181.1 ktoe by the end of 2015, and about 347,363 ktoe by 2020.

title: Influencing Mechanism Analysis of Holiday Activity Travel Patterns on Transportation Energy Consumption and Emissions in China
abstract: Energy shortage and atmospheric pollution problems are getting more serious in China, and transportation is the main source of energy consumption, pollutants, and carbon emissions. This study combined the activity based analysis method with emission models, and investigated the influence mechanism of people's activity travel scheduling on transportation energy consumption and emissions on holidays. Based on the holiday travel behavior survey data, the multinomial logistic regression model was first applied to explore the decision mechanisms of individual travel mode choices in holidays. Next, the emission model was integrated with an activity based travel demand model to calculate and compare transportation energy consumption and emissions under different policy scenarios. The results showed that socio demographic characteristics had significant effects on holiday activity travel patterns, and combined mode chains had a larger number of activity points than single mode chains. With an increase in the trip time of cars, and decrease of travel distance and the number of activity points, transportation energy consumption and emissions could be reduced greatly with an adjustment of holiday activity travel patterns. The reduced portion is mainly attracted by slow traffic and public transport. However, the effects of a single policy strategy are very limited, thus portfolio policies need to be considered by policy makers.

title: Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 36
abstract: xxii

title: China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective
abstract: Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO2 emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to evaluate the long term energy consumption and CO2 emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products.