Query: doha round prospects

title: Evaluation of the Impact of Various Doha Round Conclusion Scenarios at the WTO Agricultural Negotiation
abstract: This paper evaluates the impacts of various scenarios proposed in the context of the WTO Doha Round agricultural negotiations and a new scenario that considers differential treatment for developing countries. The objective of this paper is to contribute to find the desired consensus among WTO members to facilitate trade and avoid trade wars. We used the Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model (ATPSM) to measure impacts and use the ADAMS model to measure the equity of the various scenarios. We considered seven negotiating scenarios (1) Uruguay Round Agreement, (2) C4 country proposal, (3) EU proposal, (4) USA proposal, (6) our proposal and (7) full liberalization of trade. The results showed that our proposal increases the cotton producers' price by 10.8% better than the C4 countries proposal (9.0% and USA proposals (6.1% Our proposal for agricultural agreements increases the world price (8.1% the consumer's price (7.4% and the volume of exports (2.3% certainly to a lesser degree than that of the C4 countries proposal but more than the USA proposal. In terms of the equity criterion, it is as favorable as the other scenarios compared to the status quo of the Uruguay Round. Our proposal presents the elements for a compromise to conclude the Doha Round, with benefits for developing countries and the introduction of a new mechanism of international solidarity.

title: Income Inequality and International Economic Law: From Flint, Michigan to the Doha Round, and Back
abstract: At a time when global poverty is at its lowest, how can it be that income inequality is higher than it has been since the end of the Second World War? How have global trade and international law shaped these trends? Can we connect economic inequality at the domestic and international levels?

title: Voters reward hard working MPs: empirical evidence from the French legislative elections
abstract: This paper studies the relationship between incumbent MPs' activities and their electoral fortune. We address this question in the context of the French political system characterized by an executive domination, a candidate centered electoral system, and an electoral schedule maximizing the impact of the presidential elections. Given the contradictory influence of these three institutional features on the relationship between MPs' activities and electoral results, the overall link can only be assessed empirically. We test the effects of several measurements of MPs' activities on both their vote share and reelection probability in the 2007 legislative election. We show that MPs' activities are differently correlated to both the incumbents' vote shares in the first round and their reelection. Despite the weakness of the French National Assembly, several parliamentary activities, especially bill initiation, have a significant effect on MPs' electoral prospects.

title: hegemon's outside option: mega regional trade agreements and United States trade policy
abstract: The United States is facing growing challenges to the advancement of its interests in the World Trade Organization. The assertiveness of emerging countries in advancing their interests in the Doha Round made the achievement of a deal almost impossible. Slow progress is being made (the Trade Facilitation Agreement, for example) but no broad and significant trade deal has been reached so far. There are ongoing suggestions that the Doha round should be abandoned for good. The TPP and TTIP represented two shots the United States has taken to advance its trade interests outside the scope of the WTO, escaping possible challenges imposed by emerging countries. The irony behind this is that the trade regime in force was created by the United States at the height of its hegemony. The questions driving this paper are: Is this option for trade agreements related to American hegemonic decline? And to what extent does this option weaken the weaken the multilateral trade regime embodied in the WTO? There is a brief discussion about the future of this strategy under Trump's presidency, who has a different stance regarding regional trade agreements. Recebido em:

title: Crowding out of private stocks by public stocks
abstract: Public stocks held by government have emerged as a food security issue as well as an issue in the Doha Round of World Trade Organization talks. Understanding the impact of public stocks requires understanding their crowding out effect on private stocks. A conceptual model of this crowding out effect is developed. It utilises a call option associated with the release of public stocks. The model reveals that the crowding out effect on private stocks decreases as public stocks increase, in contrast to constant marginal crowding out reported by earlier studies. Crowding out of private stocks is also a function of the commodity's demand function, implying crowding out can vary by commodity. It is likely to be highest for commodities with the most inelastic demand. These commodities include wheat, rice, and other food staples often held as public stocks. Empirical analysis confirms these and other insights from the conceptual model.

title: The World Trade Organization and the Future of Multilateralism
abstract: When the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade was signed by 23 nations in 1947, the goal was to establish a rules based world trading system and to facilitate mutually advantageous trade liberalization. As the GATT evolved over time and morphed into the World Trade Organization in 1993, both goals have largely been achieved. The WTO presides over a rule based trading system based on norms that are almost universally accepted and respected by its 163 members. Tariffs today are below 5 percent on most trade, and zero for a very large share of imports. Despite its manifest success, the WTO is widely regarded as suffering from a deep malaise. The main reason is that the latest WTO negotiation, the Doha Round, has staggered between failures, flops, and false dawns since it was launched in 2001. But the Doha logjam has not inhibited tariff liberalization far from it. During the last 15 years, most WTO members have massively lowered barriers to trade, investment, and services bilaterally, regionally, and unilaterally indeed, everywhere except through the WTO. For today's offshoring linked international commerce, the trade rules that matter are less about tariffs and more about protection of investments and intellectual property, along with legal and regulatory steps to assure that the two way flows of goods, services, investment, and people will not be impeded. It's possible to imagine a hypothetical WTO that would incorporate these rules. But the most likely outcome for the future governance of international trade is a two pillar structure in which the WTO continues to govern with its 1994 era rules while the new rules for international production networks are set by a decentralized process of sometimes overlapping and inconsistent mega regional agreements.

title: Recalcitrant spoiler? Contesting dominant accounts of India's role in global trade governance
abstract: India is frequently cast as a troublemaker and blamed for the breakdown of the Doha Round. This article provides a critical re reading of India's trade policy and its position in multilateral trade negotiations. It challenges the widespread characterisation of India as a recalcitrant spoiler, intent on derailing trade liberalisation at the WTO. It shows that with the emergence of its highly competitive, export oriented services sector, India became one of the leading advocates of global services trade liberalisation in the Doha Round. Yet, not unlike the traditional powers, India's offensive trade interests are also combined with significant defensive concerns in agriculture.

title: The BRICS merely a fable? Emerging power alliances in global trade governance
abstract: The much hyped rise of the "BRICS" (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has lately been met with equally fervent declarations of their demise. Amid slowing growth in many of these countries, the prevailing view now appears to be that the rise of the BRICS was little more than an illusion. In this article, however, I contest this assessment by arguing that the emerging powers were never solely, nor most importantly, merely an economic phenomenon. Instead, I show that emerging powers specifically Brazil, India and China have become an important political force in the global trading system and had a profound and lasting impact on the World Trade Organization (WTO) Contrary to the widespread assumption that these countries are too diverse to ally, I argue that the emerging powers displayed a remarkable degree of unity and cooperation, working in close concert to successfully challenge the dominance of the US and other established powers. As evidenced by the collapse of the Doha Round, the collective rise of Brazil, India and China substantially disrupted the functioning of one of the core institutions of the liberal economic order created under US hegemony.

title: The WTO and the Rise of Plurilateralism What Lessons can we Learn from the European Union's Experience with Differentiated Integration?
abstract: The de facto failure of the Doha Round has shaken the confidence in multilateral trade negotiations and governance. Policy makers increasingly turn to plurilateralismaEUR"in the form of Plurilateral and Critical Mass AgreementsaEUR"as a new strategy for global trade governance. The World Trade Organization (WTO) may develop into a aEUR~club of clubsaEUR(tm) The rise of plurilateralism creates opportunities and risks. Plurilateralism may reinvigorate world trade and modernise the WTO. But it may also fragment the global trade regime and disenfranchise countries. The article advances two arguments. First, the turn to plurilateralism is timely and promises to be welfare enhancing as trade liberalization evolves from negative integration through tariff cuts to positive integration through rule convergence. Plurilateralism is often better suited to govern rule convergence. The article builds on the theory of club goods to underpin this claim. Second, the turn to plurilateralism nonetheless requires a carefully crafted governance approach to succeed. The article thus evaluates the rich experience of the European Union with so called aEUR~differentiated integrationaEUR(tm) to inform the policy debate in the WTO. It highlights that inter alia transparency, trust and institutional embedding are key to ensure that the WTO and her members benefit from the rise of plurilateralism.

title: From Legitimate Protectionism to Trade Wars
abstract: The author argues that modern protectionism has a more moderate character than that in the middle of the past century. Besides that it does not, as a rule, go beyond multilateral rules of the regulation of international trade. This allows us to define it as a legitimate one. The author estimates the probability of the execution of the approved program of the negotiations of the Doha round which aims at further liberalization of agricultural and non agricultural trade as well as services. It is stated that the deadlock situation during the negotiations forced the members of the WTO to step back from the batch method of decision making and the principle "everything is compulsory for all" This opened the way for the progress in reduction of trade barriers with the help of agreements between limited number of the participants (selective liberalization) and preferential regional trade agreements of the new type "liberalization for those who care" A fear is expressed that the current trade conflict between the US and China may lead to the opening of wide scale trade war between the two countries and may give an impetus for the outbreak of similar "wars" between other participants in the world trade and, at worst, for the collapse of the multilateral trading system that has been built during the past seventy years. In this case, international rules, though not perfect and outdated, might be substituted by chaos and anarchy which may result in the aggravation of problems of the world development. Further on, the author pays attention to the fact that the level of tariff protection in Russia somewhat decreased after the WTO accession. Still, the membership in this organization does not create any serious problems for most sectors and branches of the national economy. It is a matter of fact that the level of protectionism in the Russian Federation is higher than in the developed countries but lower than in the leading developing economies (China, India, Brazil) The author states that strengthening of protectionist elements in the trade policy will be a difficult task for the Russian government. The main reason is that the principal functions of the regulation of the foreign trade have been recently subdued rom the national government to the Eurasian Economic Commission. It is concluded that the possible destruction of the established international order in trade relations will not bring benefit for the domestic economy which is, to a great extent, dependent from foreign markets both as producer and as consumer. This is why Russia has to continue full support to the WTO. Still, during negotiations on this platform Russian government has to act pragmatically and to put in the forefront the nation's economic interests.