Review of hardware cost estimation methods, models and tools applied to early phases of space mission planning

The primary purpose of this paper is to review currently existing cost estimation methods, models, tools and resources applicable to the space sector. While key space sector methods are outlined, a specific focus is placed on hardware cost estimation on a system level, particularly for early mission phases during which specifications and requirements are not yet crystallised, and information is limited. For the space industry, cost engineering within the systems engineering framework is an integral discipline. The cost of any space program now constitutes a stringent design criterion, which must be considered and carefully controlled during the entire program life cycle. A first step to any program budget is a representative cost estimate which usually hinges on a particular estimation approach, or methodology. Therefore appropriate selection of specific cost models, methods and tools is paramount, a difficult task given the highly variable nature, scope as well as scientific and technical requirements applicable to each program. Numerous methods, models and tools exist. However new ways are needed to address very early, pre-Phase 0 cost estimation during the initial program research and establishment phase when system specifications are limited, but the available research budget needs to be established and defined. Due to their specificity, for vehicles such as reusable launchers with a manned capability, a lack of historical data implies that using either the classic heuristic approach such as parametric cost estimation based on underlying CERs, or the analogy approach, is therefore, by definition, limited. This review identifies prominent cost estimation models applied to the space sector, and their underlying cost driving parameters and factors. Strengths, weaknesses, and suitability to specific mission types and classes are also highlighted. Current approaches which strategically amalgamate various cost estimation strategies both for formulation and validation of an estimate, and techniques ll rights reserved. , The Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering through Total Cost Management International; ACE, ating Integrated Tools; aces, Advanced Cost Estimating System; ACostE, Association of Cost Engineers; ADCS, Attitude ce Ground Equipment; AHP, Analytic Hierarchy Process; AMCM, Advanced Missions Cost Model; ASPE, American Test, and Launch Operations; CBS, Cost Breakdown Structure; CE, Cost Estimation; C&DH, Command and Data ost Estimating Handbook; CEM, Cost Estimation Method; CER, Cost Estimation Relationship; COCOMO, Constructive ering Cost Model; COTS, Commercial Off The Shelf; DDT&E, Design, Development, Test & Evaluation; DLR, Deutsches ntre); EADS, European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company; ESA, European Space Agency; FAA, Federal Aviation GAO, General Accounting Office; GOTS, Government Off The Shelf; HLLV, Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle; HQ, ICE, Independent Cost Estimate; ICEC, The International Cost Engineering Council; IOC, Initial Operating Capability; Jet Propulsion Laboratory; LCC, Life Cycle Cost; LH2, Liquid Hydrogen; LOOS, Launch and Orbital Operations Support; , Launch Vehicle Cost Model; MESSOC, Model for Estimating Space Station Operations Costs; MICM, Multi-Variable Centre; MUPE, Minimum Unbiased Percentage Error; NAFCOM, NASA/Air Force Cost Model; NASA, National A Cost Model; NICM, NASA Instrument Cost Model; OHB, Orbitale Hochtechnologie Bremen; PAF, Project AIR FORCE; Cost Estimating Handbook; PEI, Parametric Estimating Initiative; PLC, Product Life Cycle; PM, Program Management; and Evaluation; RAND, Research and Development; REDSTAR, Resource Data Storage and Retrieval Library; ROM, s International Corporation; SART, Space Launcher Systems Analysis; SCEA, Society of Cost Estimating and Analysis; nd Estimation of Resources; SOC, Space Operations Centre; SOCM, Space Operations Cost Model; SSCAG, Space icle Level Cost Model; TLC, Technological Life Cycle; TransCost Model, Model for Space Transportation Systems Cost try, Tracking and Command; USCM, Unmanned Space Vehicle Cost Model; VQ, Vendor Quote; WBS, Work Breakdown uftund Raumfahrt, Institute of Space Systems, Space Launcher Systems Analysys Department (SART), Robert-Hooke