LEAD USER ANALYSES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS

Recently, a "lead user" concept has been proposed for new product development in fields subject to rapid change (von Hippel, 1986). In this paper we integrate market research within this lead user methodology and report a test of it in the rapidly evolving field of computer-aided systems for the design of printed circuit boards (PC-CAD). In the test, lead users were successfully identified and proved to have unique and useful data regarding both new product needs and solutions responsive to those needs. New product concepts generated on the basis of lead user data were found to be strongly preferred by a representative sample of PC-CAD users. We discuss strengths and weaknesses of this first empirical test of the lead user methodology, and suggest directions for future research. LEAD USER ANALYSES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS 1.0:  One important function of marketing research is to accurately understand user needs for potential new products. Such understanding is clearly an essential input to the new product development process (Rothwell, et al., 1974; Urban and Hauser, 1980). Over the past decade, empirical research has shown that, in many fields, users have a great deal more to contribute to the inquiring marketing researcher than data regarding their unfilled needs. Often, they can contribute insights regarding solutions responsive to their needs as well. This "solution" data can range from rich insight to working and tested prototypes of the desired novel product, process, or service. In some fields, users have been shown to be the actual developers of most of the successful new products eventually commercialized by manufacturers. For example, users were found to be the actual developers of 82% of all commercialized scientific instruments studied and 63% of all semiconductor and electronic subassembly manufacturing equipment innovations studied (von Hippel, 1976, 1977). In a previous paper, von Hippel (1986) has proposed that analysis of need and solution data from "lead users" can improve the productivity of new product development in fields characterized by rapid change. In this paper we enhance the lead user methodology by adding modern market research techniques and then test it in one industrial setting. "Lead users" of a novel or enhanced product, process or service are defined as those who display two characteristics with respect to it: Lead users face needs that will be general in a market place but face them months or years before the bulk of that marketplace encounters them, and Lead users are positioned to benefit significantly by obtaining a solution to those needs. Thus, a manufacturing firm with a current strong need for a process innovation which many manufacturers will need in two years' time would fit the definition of lead user with respect to that process. Each of the two lead user characteristics specified above provides an independent and valuable contribution to the type of new product need and solution data lead users are hypothesized to possess. The first is valuable because, as studies in problem-solving have shown (summarized in von Hippel, 1986), users who have real-world experience with a need are in the best position to provide market researchers with accurate (need or solution) data regarding it. When new product needs are evolving rapidly, as in many high technology product categories, only users at the "front of the trend" will presently have the real-world experience which manufacturers must analyze if they are accurately to understand the needs which the bulk of the market will have tomorrow. The utility of the second lead user characteristic is that users who expect high benefit from a solution to a need can provide the richest need and solution data to inquiring market researchers. This is because, as has been shown by shown by studies of industrial product and process innovations (Mansfield, 1968), the greater the benefit a given user expects to obtain from a needed novel product or process, the greater will be his investment in obtaining a solution. In sum, then, lead users are users whose present strong needs will become general in a marketplace months or years in the future. Since lead users are familiar with conditions which lie in the future for most others, we hypothesize that they can serve as a need-forecasting laboratory for marketing research. Moreover, since lead users often attempt to fill the need they experience, we hypothesize that they can provide valuable new product concept and design data to inquiring manufacturers in addition to need data.  The integration of market research methods with the lead user hypothesis can be represented by a four step methodology for concept development and testing. These steps are: 1) Specify Lead User Indicators A. Find market or technological trend and related measures: Lead users are defined as being in advance of the market with respect to a given important dimension which is changing over time. Therefore, before one can identify lead users in a given product category of interest, one must specify the underlying trend on which these users have a leading position, and must specify reliable measures of that trend. B. Define measures of potential benefit: High expected benefit from solving a need is the second indicator of a lead user, and measures or proxy measures of this variable must also be defined. In work to date, we have found three types of proxy measures to be useful. First, evidence of user product development or product modification can serve as a proxy for user benefit because, as we noted previously, user investment in innovation and user expectations of related benefit have been found to be correlated. Second, user dissatisfaction with existing products (services or processes) can serve as a proxy for expected benefit because it is logical that the degree of dissatisfaction with what exists will be correlated with the degree of expected benefit obtainable from improvements. Finally, speed of adoption of innovations may also serve as a surrogate for high expected benefit. Early adoption and innovativeness have been found often correlated with the adopter's perception of related benefit (Rogers and Shoemaker, 1971). 2) Identify Lead User Group Once trend and benefit indicators are specified, one may screen the potential market based on the measures specified above via questionnaire and identify a lead user group. This is accomplished by a cluster analysis of the survey-based lead user indicators to find a subgroup which is at the leading edge of the trend being studied and displays correlates of high expected benefit from solutions to related needs. 3) Generate Concept (Product) with Lead Users The next step in the method involves deriving data from lead users related to their real-life experience with novel attributes and/or product concepts of commercial interest. This experience may include modifications to existing products or new products which they have created to meet their needs. Creative group sessions can be used to pool user solution content and develop a new product concept. In some cases the user solution may represent not only a concept but a fully implemented product. 4) Test Lead User Concept (Product) The needs of today's lead users are typically not precisely the same as the needs of the users who will make up a major share of tomorrow's predicted market. Indeed, the literature on diffusion suggests that, in general, the early adopters of a novel product or practice differ in significant ways from the bulk of the users who follow them (Rogers, 1962). One therefore next assesses how lead user data are evaluted by the more typical users in the target market. This can be done by employing traditional concept (product) test procedures after segmenting lead and non-lead user responses.  Application Can lead user solution content captured through the proposed four step market research methodology be the basis of successful new industrial product development? In this section we report one clinical case study which addresses this question. Through this in depth case study we hope to make clear the detailed procedures and issues involved in implementing the lead user concept, and provide one data point for determining the value of lead user input. As the reader will see, the results of our single case analysis appear very successful. While the generality of such results must be ascertained by additional research, we think that this initial case offers a graphic illustration of the potential utility of marketing research analyses of lead users. Our case study focuses on computer aided design (CAD) systems. We picked CAD products for our case study because it is a large, growing, and rapidly changing market. Over forty firms compete in the one billion dollar market for CAD hardware and software. This market grew at over 35 percent per year over the period of 1982 to 1986 and the forecast is for continued growth at this rate until 1990. We feel it represents an appropriate arena for a test of lead user methodologies. Within CAD, we decided to specifically examine the CAD systems used to design the printed circuit boards used in electronic products, PC-CAD. Printed circuit boards hold integrated circuit chips and other electronic components and interconnect these into functioning circuits. PC-CAD systems take engineering designs and convert them into detailed manufacturing specifications for such printed circuit boards. The steps in the design of a printed circuit board which are or can be aided by PC-CAD include component placement, signal routing (interconnections), editing and checking, documentation, and interfacing to manufacturing. The software required to perform these tasks is very complex and includes placement and routing algorithms and sophisticated graphics. Some PC-CAD manufacturers sell only such software, while others sell systems which i