Multiple forecasts with autoregressive time series models: case studies
It is indisputable that accurate forecasts of economic activities are vital to successful business and government policies. In many circumstances, instead of a single forecast, simultaneous prediction intervals for multiple forecasts are more useful to decision-makers. For example, based on previous monthly sales records, a production manager would be interested in the next 12 interval forecasts of the monthly sales using for the annual inventory and manpower planning. For Gaussian autoregressive time series processes, several procedures for constructing simultaneous prediction intervals have been proposed in the literature. These methods assume a normal error distribution and can be adversely affected by departures from normality which are commonly encountered in business and economic time series. In this article, we explore the bootstrap methods for the construction of simultaneous multiple interval forecasts. To understand the mechanisms and characteristics of the proposed bootstrap procedures, several macro-economic time series are selected for illustrative purposes. The selected series are fitted reasonably well with autoregressive models which form an important class in time series. As a matter of fact, the major ideas discussed in this paper with autoregressive processes can be extended to other more complicated time series models.

title: A bivariate threshold time series model for analyzing Australian interest rates
abstract: In recent years, research in nonlinear time series analysis has grown rapidly. Substantial empirical evidence of nonlinearities in economic time series fluctuations has been reported in the literature. Nonlinear time series models have the advantage of being able to capture asymmetries, jumps, and time irreversibility which are characteristics of many observed financial and economic time series. As compared to the linear models, the nonlinear time series models provide a much wider spectrum of possible dynamics for the economic time series data. In this paper, we explore the use of nonlinear time series models to analyze Australian interest rates. In particular, we concentrate on the class of bivariate threshold autoregressive (BTAR) models. Monthly Australian interest rates from 1957.1 to 2002.8 are considered. The series under study are 2- and 15-year government bonds, representing short- and long-term series in the term structure of interest rates. A BTAR model is fitted to the observed vector series and the results show that the dynamic structure of the two interest rate series depends heavily on the status (expansion versus contraction) of the economy.

title: Developing e-Negotiation Process Support by Web Services

title: Facilitating e-Negotiation Processes with Semantic Web Technologies
abstract: Semantic Web technologies have recently been maturing to make e-commerce interactions and cross-organizational processes more flexible and automated. Ontology has also been developed in various business domains. However, researches in Semantic Web have largely focused on the facilitation of successful matchmaking but not much on the negotiation upon matchmaking failures and exceptions. In this paper, we propose a novel application of Semantic Web technologies for the facilitation of e-Negotiation processes. We discuss how the elicitation of negotiation issues, alternatives, and tradeoff can be streamlined. We further propose a novel methodology for the elicitation of dependencies among negotiation issues so that negotiators can focus on tradeoff among inter-related issues, instead of arguing about single issues. A negotiation plan can thus be derived to observe negotiation orders across different issues. As a result, negotiators can have a better cognition of their negotiation tasks and the overall e-Negotiation process can be streamlined. We are extending a negotiation support system to demonstrate the feasibility of our approach, which is the most useful to repeatable and semi-structured negotiations in business-to-business (B2B) e-Commerce and e-Marketplace envi-ronments.

title: A Multi-Agent Infrastructure for Mobile Workforce Management in a Service Oriented Enterprise
abstract: With recent advances in mobile technologies and infrastructures, there are increasing demands for the support of mobile workforce management (MWM) across multiple platforms. Mobile users can interact with the MWM system through SMS messages or Web browsers from personal computers, PDA devices, or WAP phones. MWM typically involves tight collaboration, negotiation, and sophisticated business domain knowledge. Therefore, the main challenge of MWM for a service oriented enterprise is the integration of disparate business function for its mobile professional workforce and the management with a unified infrastructure, together with the provision of personalized assistance and automation. These requirements can be facilitated with the use of intelligent software agents, but has not been adequately studied before. As mobile devices become more powerful, intelligent software agents can now be deployed on these devices and hence also subject to mobility. Thus, MWM systems have to accommodate these requirements as well as the support of heterogeneous platforms. In this paper, we formulate a scalable, flexible, and intelligent multi-agent information system (MAIS) infrastructure for MWM with agent clusters in the context of a large service oriented enterprise. Each agent cluster comprise several types of agents to achieve the goal of each phase of the workforce management process, namely, task formulation, matchmaking, brokering, commuting, and service. We evaluate our approach against different stakeholders' perspective.

title: Insensitive bounds for the moments of the sojourn time distribution in the M/G/1 processor-sharing queue
abstract: This paper studies the M/G/1 processor-sharing (PS) queue, in particular the sojourn time distribution conditioned on the initial job size. Although several expressions for the Laplace-Stieltjes transform (LST) are known, these expressions are not suitable for computational purposes. This paper derives readily applicable insensitive bounds for all moments of the conditional sojourn time distribution. The instantaneous sojourn time, i.e., the sojourn time of an infinitesimally small job, leads to insensitive upper bounds requiring only knowledge of the traffic intensity and the initial job size. Interestingly, the upper bounds involve polynomials with so-called Eulerian numbers as coefficients. In addition, stochastic ordering and moment ordering results for the sojourn time distribution are obtained.

title: A three-layer architecture for e-contract enforcement in an e-service environment
abstract: In an e-service environment, contracts are important for attaining business process interoperability and enforcing their proper enactment.  In the document layer, contracts are composed of different types of clauses. In the business layer, e-contract enforcement activities are defined through the realization of contract clauses as business rules in event-condition-action (ECA) form. In the implementation layer, cross-organizational e-contract enforcement interfaces are implemented with contemporary Enterprise Java Bean and Web services. We present a methodology for the engineering of e-contracts enforcement from a high-level document-view down to the implementation layer based on this architecture, using a supply-chain example. As a result, e-contracts can be seamlessly defined and enforced. Conceptual models of various layers are given in the Unified Modeling Language (UML).