Globalization and the Transformation of Political Attitude Structures at the Party Level in the Arab World: Insights from the Cases of Egypt and Jordan

In this paper, the outline, design, and findings of an ongoing research project on the effects of globalization on the transformation of political ideology in the Arab world at the political party level are presented. It is argued that globalization has altered the dimensionality, type, and structuration of political ideology in the Arab world. The structure of preferences among political actors in the region shifted from a unidimensional one in the post-independence era to become multidimensional in the contemporary period, defined by high rates of economic, cultural, and political globalization. Arab political parties no longer organize their platforms based on the Islamic–liberal, Islamist–secular, or cultural divides. An economic values-based dimension has emerged to divide party programs, adding a second, distinct and statistically independent dimension to the already existing classic church versus state cleavage. Further, a new family of Islamist parties has emerged due to the economic, cultural, and political gains from globalization. This project argues that globalization causes political ideological shifts in attitudes through formulating new groups, schedules of preferences, and political/economic opportunities. This research contributes to the ongoing debate on the influence of globalization and any other social transformation process on changing political actors’ preferences across time and space.

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abstract: In response to Shuter's (Shuter, 1990) call for the examination of communicative phenomena in particular societies worldwide, this article critically reviews the existing and, in some cases, contradictory research on cultural communication patterns in the Arab world. The article first clarifies the term “Arab” and provides boundaries for discussing communicative phenomena in the region. It then reviews recent investigations of Arab cultural communication patterns from an interdisciplinary perspective. More specifically, it focuses on several themes evident and available in the literature: (a) basic cultural values, (b) language and verbal communication, and (c) nonverbal and paralinguistic patterns. Following each theme are directions for future research. Finally, the article proposes strategies to overcome barriers to research in the Arab region and concludes with an extensive bibliography of resources. It is a hope that this article will stimulate scholarly interest in the Arab world and serve as a catalyst for the inclusion of Arab communication patterns in the teaching of intercultural communication, as well as in future research and theory development.

title: World on Fire: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability
abstract: Contrary to conventional wisdom, markets and democracy - at least in the raw form in which they have been promoted for the last 25 years - may not be mutually reinforcing in many developing countries. The reason for this has to do with the phenomenon of market-dominant minorities (MDMs): ethnic minorities who, along with foreign investors, can be expected under free market conditions to economically dominate the "indigenous" majorities around them, at least in the near to midterm future. Examples of MDMs include the Chinese throughout Southeast Asia, Indians throughout East Africa, the Lebanese in West Africa, Ibo in Nigeria, Bamileke in Cameroon, Tutsi in Rwanda, Kikuyu in Kenya, Whites in South Africa, Whites in Zimbabwe, Croatians in the former Yugoslavia, Jews in post-Communist Russia, Tamils in Sri Lanka - the list goes on. Reasons for market-dominance vary widely, ranging from entrepreneurialism to a history of apartheid or colonial oppression. The extent of market-dominance is typically startling. In the Philippines, for example, the 1% Chinese control as much as 60% of the private economy. In countries with an MDM, markets and democracy will tend to favor different ethnic groups. Markets magnify the glaringly disproportionate wealth of the MDM, generating great reservoirs of ethnic envy and resentment (even if "all boats are lifted"), while democracy increases the political power of the impoverished "indigenous" majority. In such circumstances - where the rich are not just rich, but are viewed as belonging to a resented "outsider" ethnic group - the pursuit of free market democracy becomes an engine of potentially catastrophic ethnonationalism, pitting a poor "indigenous" majority, easily aroused by opportunistic vote-seeking politicians, against the MDM. The result is an ethnically combustible situation that will typically lead to one of three kinds of backlash: (1) a backlash against markets (e.g., through ethnically targeted confiscation or nationalization); (2) a backlash against democracy by forces favorable to the MDM (e.g., through crony capitalism); or (3) a violent backlash against the MDM itself (e.g., through expulsion or ethnic cleansing).

title: Social news, citizen journalism and democracy
abstract: This article aims to contribute to a critical research agenda for investigating the democratic implications of citizen journalism and social news. The article calls for a broad conception of ‘citizen journalism’ which is (1) not an exclusively online phenomenon, (2) not confined to explicitly ‘alternative’ news sources, and (3) includes ‘metajournalism’ as well as the practices of journalism itself. A case is made for seeing democratic implications not simply in the horizontal or ‘peer-to-peer’ public sphere of citizen journalism networks, but also in the possibility of a more ‘reflexive’ culture of news consumption through citizen participation. The article calls for a research agenda that investigates new forms of gatekeeping and agenda-setting power within social news and citizen journalism networks and, drawing on the example of three sites, highlights the importance of both formal and informal status differentials and of the software ‘code’ structuring these new modes of news production.

title: The Oil Kings: How the U.S., Iran, and Saudi Arabia Changed the Balance of Power in the Middle East
abstract: Oil Kings offers the first inside look at how an oil crisis was manipulated by Alan Greenspan, Donald Rumsfeld, and President Ford (hoping to secure his re-election), helping to precipitate the fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979. Andrew Scott Cooper reveals the fatal struggle between the oil kingsA", both Middle-Eastern and American, as they jockeyed for power, playing games that led directly to the rise of Iran's radical anti-American theocracy, which still exists today. An intrepid investigative reporter, Andrew Scott Cooper is the first to access newly declassified papers, and to interview key people who formulated US foreign poilicy in that period. Carefully connecting up the dots, he brilliantly reconstructs the history of that vexed decade when the modern world was changed forever.

title: Saudi Arabia and Iran : soft power rivalry in the Middle East
abstract: The Middle East in International Relations Chapter 2: Arabian Gulf vs. Persian Gulf Chapter 3: History, Politics and Narratives of State-Building, Chapter 4: Religious Incongruence Chapter 5: Ethno-Tribal Incongruence Chapter 6: The Response of the State Chapter 7: Internal-External Security Dilemmas

title: The Accommodationists Speak:Goals and Strategies of the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt
abstract: With the Islamist movement gaining momentum and recruits throughout the Near and Middle East and North Africa, it is vital that scholars and practitioners make an attempt to understand the objectives and strategies expressed by the groups within this movement. It is also imperative that we acknowledge that the Islamic resurgence is not a monolithic phenomenon, but is characterized by factions and voices that diverge on their approach to major themes such as the nature of society, the preferred relationship between Islamist activists and the political system, methodology for alleviating socioeconomic frustrations and spiritual laxity, and the temporal framework within which Islamist goals are to be achieved. The more “radical” or militant of these groups insist upon revolutionary change that is to be imposed on the masses and political system, whereas the more moderate groups, epitomized by the new Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, call for gradual change that is to be undertaken from within the political system and with the enlistment of the Muslim masses.

title: Cleavage theory meets Europe’s crises: Lipset, Rokkan, and the transnational cleavage
abstract: This article argues that the perforation of national states by immigration, integration and trade may signify a critical juncture in the political development of Europe no less consequential for political parties and party systems than the previous junctures that Lipset and Rokkan detect in their classic article. We present evidence suggesting that (1) party systems are determined in episodic breaks from the past; (2) political parties are programmatically inflexible; and, (3) as a consequence, party system change comes in the form of rising parties.

title: Effects of Modernization and Globalization of Values Change in the Arab World
abstract: This paper argues that social transformation processes generate shifts in public opinion among the public. More specifically, increasing rates of modernization and globalization in the Arab world over the past half century have led to a moving away from religion, tradition, and ethnocentrism to embracing more secular, liberal, and egalitarian values. Ordinary citizens in today’s Arab world are more tolerant towards non-Muslims, Americans, and other Westerners more than ever before. They support recognizing Israel as a state at a rate previously unprecedented in the region. Arabs are politically, socially, and culturally more liberal than they have been in the twentieth century. Evidence from the World Values Survey and Arab Barometer clearly convey this observable value change in the region. Underlying causes for this change are arguably due to macro, mezzo, and micro-level changes in peoples’ lives resulting from increased modernization and globalization compared to earlier periods. This confirms earlier findings from Western Europe and North America which propose that social transformation processes yield predictable changes in values among mass publics.

title: Public Opinion in the Middle East: Survey Research and the Political Orientations of Ordinary Citizens
abstract: Public Opinion Research in the Arab and Muslim Middle East Part One Domestic Politics 1. Regime Orientation and Participant Citizenship in Developing Countries: Hypotheses and a Test with Longitudinal Data from Tunisia (1981) / Mark Tessler and Patricia Freeman 2. The Origins of Popular Support for Islamist Movements: A Political Economy Analysis (1997) / Mark Tessler 3. Islam and Democracy in the Middle East: The Impact of Religious Orientations on Attitudes toward Democracy in Four Arab Countries (2002) / Mark Tessler 4. Political Generations in Developing Countries: Evidence and Insights from Algeria (2004) / Mark Tessler, Carrie Konold and Megan Reif 5. The Democracy Barometers: Attitudes in the Arab World (2008) Amaney Jamal and Mark Tessler Part Two Political Culture and Islam 6. Political Culture in Turkey: Connections among Attitudes toward Democracy, the Military, and Islam (2004) / Mark Tessler and Ebru Altinoglu 7. Assessing the Influence of Religious Predispositions on Citizen Orientations Related to Governance and Democracy: Findings from Survey Research in Three Dissimilar Arab Societies (2006) / Mark Tessler 8. Democracy and the Political Culture Orientations of Ordinary Citizens: A Typology for the Arab World and Perhaps Beyond (2009) / Mark Tessler and Eleanor Gao Part Three International Conflict 9. Gender, Feminism, and Attitudes toward International Conflict: Exploring Relationships with Survey Data from the Middle East (1997) / Mark Tessler and Ina Warriner 10. Islam and Attitudes toward International Conflict: Evidence from Survey Research in the Arab World (1998) / Mark Tessler and Jodi Nachtwey 11. Further Tests of the Women and Peace  Evidence from Cross-National Survey Research in the Middle East (1999) / Mark Tessler, Jodi Nachtwey and Audra Grant 12. The Political Economy of Attitudes toward Peace among Palestinians and Israelis (2002) / Jodi Nachtwey and Mark Tessler 13.  Men and Women in Arab Countries to Approve of Terrorist Acts against the West: Evidence from Survey Research in Algeria and Jordan (2007) / Mark Tessler and Michael D. H. Robbins Bibliography Index

title: Political Attitude Research in the Arab World: Emerging Opportunities
abstract: This essay describes two very different survey projects that investigate the political attitudes, values, and behavior patterns of ordinary men and women in the Arab world. One is the Arab Democracy Barometer, an American-Arab collaborative project being carried out in five countries. The other is a survey in Palestine conducted as part of the fieldwork for a doctoral dissertation. These projects illustrate the emerging opportunities for political attitude research in the Arab world. The essay begins, however, with a brief reflection on the history of political surveys in the Arab world, which is necessary to appreciate the significance of the opportunities now emerging.

title: Mapping policy preferences II : estimates for parties, electors, and governments in Eastern Europe, European Union, and OECD 1990-2003
abstract: PART I: PARTIES AND REPRESENTATION IN EASTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION 1. Uniquely! Over-Time Mapping of Party Policy Movements in Central and Eastern Europe 1990-2003 2. Beyond the Left-Right Dimension: Policy Profiles and Programmatic Coherence of Party Groupings in the European Parliament 3. A Common Space for Electoral Communication? Comparing Party and Voter Placements on a Left-Right Continuum in Western Europe and the CEE PART II: METHODOLOGY AND MEASUREMENT 4. Evaluating Validity with the Standard Left-Right Scale: Matching Measurements to Conceptual Intentions 5. Information or Error? Reliability of Policy Time series 6. Quantifying Policy Emphases in Texts Using the CMP Approach: Comparisons with Alternative Approaches. 7. Exploiting Manifesto Estimates of the Median for Multi- Relating Electoral, Legislative and Government Policy Preferences 8. Using the Data

title: Social Cleavages and the Number of Parties
abstract: This article explores the issues surrounding the operationalization and measurement of social cleavages in a large-N context from the perspective of the party systems literature. It first highlights the difficulty of measuring the concept, which it argues has impeded hypothesis testing, and suggests strategies for improving upon existing measures. It then demonstrates that the conclusions we draw about well-known hypotheses linking social cleavages to the number of electoral parties in legislative elections depend upon the measure we employ. Hence, the article makes the case that how we measure social cleavages matters.

title: Bootstrap Confidence Regions for Multidimensional Scaling Solutions
abstract: Multidimensional scaling (or MDS) is a methodology for producing geometric models of proximities data. Multidimensional scaling has a long history in political science research. However, most applications of MDS are purely descriptive, with no attempt to assess stability or sampling variability in the scaling solution. In this article, we develop a bootstrap resampling strategy for constructing confidence regions in multidimensional scaling solutions. The methodology is illustrated by performing an inferential multidimensional scaling analysis on data from the 2004 American National Election Study (ANES). The bootstrap procedure is very simple, and it is adaptable to a wide variety of MDS models. Our approach enhances the utility of multidimensional scaling as a tool for testing substantive theories while still retaining the flexibility in assumptions, model details, and estimation procedures that make MDS so useful for exploring structure in data.

title: The KOF Globalisation Index – revisited
abstract: We introduce the revised version of the KOF Globalisation Index, a composite index measuring globalization for every country in the world along the economic, social and political dimension. The original index was introduced by Dreher (Applied Economics, 38(10):1091–1110, 2006) and updated in Dreher et al. (2008). This second revision of the index distinguishes between de facto and de jure measures along the different dimensions of globalization. We also disentangle trade and financial globalization within the economic dimension of globalization and use time-varying weighting of the variables. The new index is based on 43 instead of 23 variables in the previous version. Following Dreher (Applied Economics, 38(10):1091–1110, 2006), we use the new index to examine the effect of globalization on economic growth. The results suggest that de facto and de jure globalization influence economic growth differently. Future research should use the new KOF Globalisation Index to re-examine other important consequences of globalization and why globalization was proceeding rapidly in some countries, such as South Korea, but less so in others. The KOF Globalisation Index can be downloaded from http://www.kof.ethz.ch/globalisation/.

title: Using Subject-Matter Experts to Assess Content Representation: An MDS Analysis
abstract: Demonstration of content domain representation is of central importance in test validation.  The similar ity ratings were analyzed using multidimensional scaling (MDS); the item relevance ratings were ana lyzed using procedures proposed by Hambleton (1984) and Aiken (1980). The SMES' perceptions of the underlying content structures of the tests emerged in the MDS solutions. All dimensions were germane to the content domains measured by the tests. Some of these dimensions were consistent with the content structure specified in the test blueprint, others were not. Correlation and regression analyses of the MDS item coordinates and item relevance ratings indicated that using both item similarity and item relevance data provided greater information of content repre sentation than did using either approach alone. The implications of the procedure for test validity are dis cussed and suggestions for future research are provided.

title: Modern Multidimensional Scaling: Theory and Applications
abstract: Fundamentals of MDS.- The Four Purposes of Multidimensional Scaling.- Constructing MDS Representations.- MDS Models and Measures of Fit.- Three Applications of MDS.- MDS and Facet Theory.- How to Obtain Proximities.- MDS Models and Solving MDS Problems.- Matrix Algebra for MDS.- A Majorization Algorithm for Solving MDS.- Metric and Nonmetric MDS.- Confirmatory MDS.- MDS Fit Measures, Their Relations, and Some Algorithms.- Classical Scaling.- Special Solutions, Degeneracies, and Local  Avoiding Trivial Solutions in Unfolding.- Special Unfolding Models.- MDS Geometry as a Substantive Model.- MDS as a Psychological  Scalar Products and Euclidean Distances.- Euclidean Embeddings.- MDS and Related Methods.- Procrustes Procedures.- Three-Way Procrustean  Three-Way MDS  Modeling Asymmetric Data.- Methods Related to MDS.

title: Multidimensional scaling: I. Theory and method
abstract: Multidimensional scaling can be considered as involving three basic steps. In the first step, a scale of comparative distances between all pairs of stimuli is obtained. This scale is analogous to the scale of stimuli obtained in the traditional paired comparisons methods. In this scale, however, instead of locating each stimulus-object on a given continuum, the distances between each pair of stimuli are located on a distance continuum. As in paired comparisons, the procedures for obtaining a scale of comparative distances leave the true zero point undetermined. Hence, a comparative distance is not a distance in the usual sense of the term, but is a distance minus an unknown constant. The second step involves estimating this unknown constant. When the unknown constant is obtained, the comparative distances can be converted into absolute distances. In the third step, the dimensionality of the psychological space necessary to account for these absolute distances is determined, and the projections of stimuli on axes of this space are obtained. A set of analytical procedures was developed for each of the three steps given above, including a least-squares solution for obtaining comparative distances by the complete method of triads, two practical methods for estimating the additive constant, and an extension of Young and Householder's Euclidean model to include procedures for obtaining the projections of stimuli on axes from fallible absolute distances.

title: Political Conflict in Western Europe
abstract: Part I. Theory and Methods: 1. The transformative power of globalization and the structure of political conflict in Western Europe Edgar Grande and Hanspeter Kriesi 2. Exploring the new cleavage across arenas and public debates: design and methods Martin Dolezal, Swen Hutter and Bruno Wuest Part II. The Development of the 'Integration-Demarcation' Cleavage: 3. Participation and party choice: comparing the demand-side of the new cleavage across arenas Martin Dolezal and Swen Hutter 4. Restructuring the national political space: the supply side of national electoral politics Hanspeter Kriesi 5. Restructuring the European political space: the supply side of European electoral politics Martin Dolezal 6. Restructuring protest politics: the terrain of cultural winners Swen Hutter 7. Congruence, counterweight, or different logics? Comparing electoral and protest politics Swen Hutter Part III.  The Articulation of the New Cleavage in Detail: 8. The impact of arenas in public debates over globalization Marc Helbling, Dominic Hoglinger and Bruno Wuest 9. Culture versus economy: the framing of public debates over issues related to globalization Dominic Hoglinger, Bruno Wuest and Marc Helbling 10. Actor configurations in the public debates on globalization Bruno Wuest, Marc Helbling and Dominic Hoglinger Part IV.  11.  how much change can we observe and what does it mean? Edgar Grande.

title: Rhetoric and Ideology in Egypt’s Wasaiyya Movement
abstract: Islamic centrism (Wasaiyya) is commonly presented as an open-minded and dialogue-oriented form of Islamism. This article questions that view by analyzing texts written by two prominent centrists: Muammad ‘Ammāra and Fahmī Huwaydī. Focusing on rhetorical techniques, the article argues that their texts are characterized by aggressive polemics not conducive to pluralist public debate. While relying heavily on barrages of rhetorical questions and implicit arguments, they avoid serious discussion of difficult issues. These characteristics of their texts are brought out by a discourse analysis based on modern text linguistics, specifically Functional Grammar as developed by Michael Halliday. This approach to Islamism is new and helps explaining why centrism, despite its professed open-mindedness, has failed both to defuse the high ideological tension in contemporary Egyptian debates about Islam in society and to contribute to bringing those debates forward.

title: Islamisation in Eastern EuropeA case study of Arraid in Ukraine
abstract: The concept of Wasaṭiyya (from al-wasaṭ, middle, in Arabic) has been increasingly promoted in recent years. Originating from the Muslim Brotherhood (al-Ikhwān alMuslimūn), it is often referred to as ‘Islamic centrism’ and Yūsuf al-Qaradāwī is featured as its major proponent. The stress is on presenting Islam as a moderate and adaptable religion, with focus on families and social participation. The Wasaṭiyya ideas found a fertile ground in some surprising contexts. An example is Ukraine, a predominantly Orthodox country in Eastern Europe. Arraid, a group purporting these principles of Wasaṭiyya, has been gaining influence there among the local Muslim community as well as among non-Muslims.

title: “Islamic Moderation” in Perspectives: A Comparison Between Oriental and Occidental Scholarships
abstract: ‘Islamic moderation’ has received a great deal of academic and media attention both in the West and in the East. Yet, the denotation of the very term still remains abundantly paradoxical as different regions and contexts provide different sheds of meanings. In the western scholarship, Islamic moderation is concerned with liberal social norms, hermeneutics, political pluralism, democratic process, organizational affinities, and views of state legitimacy over the monopoly of violence, some kind of adaptation, willingness to cooperate or compromise. However, it is by no means exhaustive as its definition in Islamic scholarship provides some unlike constituents. To define moderation, Muslim scholars, firstly explores to lexical meanings of its Arabic substitute “wasatiyyah”. Secondly, they explore the textual meanings of the word “wasatiyyah” used in the orthodox text i.e the Quran and traditions (Sunnah) of the Prophet Muhammad (pbuh). According to them, moderation is a best suited, justly balanced or middle position between two extremes i.e. extremism and laxity. Their use of the term, is contextualized in terms of counter-extremism, modest socio-religious behaviour and temperate legal position. This research finds out a considerable textual and contextual difference in the use of the term ‘Islamic moderation’ between the East and the West. Hence, this study aims to explore the lack of integration between both scholarships in this issue.

title: The Strong Egypt Party: representing a progressive/democratic Islamist party?
abstract: Islamist parties espouse a socio-political platform that rests on the notion of creating an Islamic order and the application of the Islamic Sharia as a normative/legal and authoritative power structure. Progressive/Democratic Islamists is a term coined by some scholars to account for the emergence of new actors within the Islamic ranks starting from the 1990s in several Middle Eastern countries including Iran, Turkey, Egypt and North African countries. These actors depart from authoritarian political interpretations of Islamic texts, calling for a rationalist interpretation of Islamic idioms emphasizing the compatibility of Islam with democracy, pluralism, human rights and grassroots empowerment. This article analyzes the case of the Strong Egypt party (SEP) in the wake of the 2011 uprising in Egypt. It problematizes the identity of the party and its location in the ideological and political spectrum in Egypt. The article argues that the SEP claims a mixture of cultural conservatism, economic progressivism and political democracy, but that this mixture suffers from lack of depth, sophistication and a genuine social constituency and project.

title: Salafis and Sufis in Egypt
abstract: The Carnegie Endowment does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented here are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Endowment, its staff, or its trustees. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Carnegie Endowment. Please direct inquiries to:

title: Laughing Through Change: Subversive Humor in Online Videos of Arab Youth
abstract: Arab youth seek ways to subvert authority and redefine identity in the somewhat less supervised spaces of online humor. As Arab states tighten their grip on youth for fear of dissent, their youth are exploring other means for social change at the murky boundaries between jokes and insults, seriousness and frivolity. This study argues that the interplay between parental and political authorities complicates their attempts at political change and demands an analysis of resistance at both the cultural and political levels. With a focus on Egypt and Jordan, this study uses a qualitative thematic analysis of satirical online videos to examine instances of disguised dissent and consciousness-raising among youth away from closed-off public spaces.

title: Islamic Culture and Democracy: Testing the 'Clash of Civilizations' Thesis
abstract: In seeking to understand the root causes of the events of 9/11 many accounts have turned to Samuel P. Huntington's provocative and controversial thesis of a 'clash of civilizations', arousing strong debate. Evidence from the 1995-2001 waves of the World Values Survey/European Values Survey (WVS/EVS) allows us, for the first time, to examine an extensive body of empirical evidence relating to this debate. Comparative analysis of the beliefs and values of Islamic and non-Islamic publics in 75 societies around the globe, confirms the first claim in Huntington's thesis: culture does matter, and indeed matters a lot, so that religious legacies leave a distinct imprint on contemporary values. But Huntington is mistaken in assuming that the core clash between the West and Islamic worlds concerns democracy. The evidence suggests striking similarities in the political values held in these societies. It is true that Islamic publics differ from Western publics concerning the role of religious leadership in society, but this is not a simple dichotomous clash — many non-Islamic societies side with the Islamic ones on this issue. Moreover the Huntington thesis fails to identify the most basic cultural fault line between the West and Islam, which concerns the issues of gender equality and sexual liberalization. The cultural gulf separating Islam from the West involves Eros far more than Demos.

title: Sacred and Secular: Religion and Politics Worldwide
abstract: Part I. Understanding Secularization: 1. The secularization debate 2. Measuring secularization 3. Comparing secularization worldwide Part II. Case Studies of Religion and Politics: 4. The puzzle of secularization in the United States and Western Europe 5. A religious revival in post-communist Europe? 6. Religion and politics in the Muslim world Part III. The Consequences of Secularization: 7. Religion, the Protestant ethic, and moral values 8. Religious organizations and social capital 9. Religious parties and electoral behavior Part IV. . Secularization and its consequences 11. Re-examining the theory of existential security 12. Re-examining evidence for the security thesis.