Improved simulation of fire–vegetation interactions in the Land surface Processes and eXchanges dynamic global vegetation model (LPX-Mv1)

The Land surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) model is a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model that performs well globally but has problems representing fire regimes and vegetative mix in savannas. Here we focus on improving the fire module. To improve the representation of ignitions, we introduced a reatment of lightning that allows the fraction of ground strikes to vary spatially and seasonally, realistically partitions strike distribution between wet and dry days, and varies the number of dry days with strikes. Fuel availability and moisture content were improved by implementing decomposition rates specific to individual plant functional types and litter classes, and litter drying rates driven by atmospheric water content. To improve water extraction by grasses, we use realistic plant-specific treatments of deep roots. To improve fire responses, we introduced adaptive bark thickness and post-fire resprouting for tropical and temperate broadleaf trees. All improvements are based on extensive analyses of relevant observational data sets. We test model performance for Australia, first evaluating parameterisations separately and then measuring overall behaviour against standard benchmarks. Changes to the lightning parameterisation produce a more realistic simulation of fires in southeastern and central Australia. Implementation of PFT-specific decomposition rates enhances performance in central Australia. Changes in fuel drying improve fire in northern Australia, while changes in rooting depth produce a more realistic simulation of fuel availability and structure in central and northern Australia. The introduction of adaptive bark thickness and resprouting produces more realistic fire regimes in Australian savannas. We also show that the model simulates biomass recovery rates consistent with observations from several different regions of the world characterised by resprouting vegetation. The new model (LPX-Mv1) produces an improved simulation of observed vegetation composition and mean annual burnt area, by 33 and 18% respectively compared to LPX.

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title: Fire and Plants
abstract: Why and how do ecosystems burn? Surviving fires - vegetative and reproductive responses. Plant demography and fire I: Interval dependent effects. Plant demography and fire II: Event-dependent effects. Fire and the evolutionary ecology of plants. Fire, competition and the organization of communities. Fire and management. Fire and the ecology of a changing world.

title: The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model
abstract: A process-based fire regime model (SPITFIRE) has been developed, coupled with ecosystem dynamics in the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, and used to explore fire regimes and the current impact of fire on the terrestrial carbon cycle and associated emissions of trace atmospheric constituents. The model estimates an average release of 2.24 Pg C yr−1 as CO2 from biomass burning during the 1980s and 1990s. Comparison with observed active fire counts shows that the model reproduces where fire occurs and can mimic broad geographic patterns in the peak fire season, although the predicted peak is 1–2 months late in some regions. Modelled fire season length is generally overestimated by about one month, but shows a realistic pattern of differences among biomes. Comparisons with remotely sensed burnt-area products indicate that the model reproduces broad geographic patterns of annual fractional burnt area over most regions, including the boreal forest, although interannual variability in the boreal zone is underestimated.

title: Modeling fire and the terrestrial carbon balance
abstract: Four CO2 concentration inversions and the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) versions 2.1 and 3 are used to provide benchmarks for climate-driven modeling of the global land-atmosphere CO2 flux and the contribution of wildfire to this flux. The Land surface Processes and exchanges (LPX) model is introduced. LPX is based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Spread and Intensity of FIRE (LPJ-SPITFIRE) model with amended fire probability calculations. LPX omits human ignition sources yet simulates many aspects of global fire adequately. It captures the major features of observed geographic pattern in burnt area and its seasonal timing and the unimodal relationship of burnt area to precipitation. It simulates features of geographic variation in the sign of the interannual correlations of burnt area with antecedent dryness and precipitation. It simulates well the interannual variability of the global total land-atmosphere CO2 flux. There are differences among the global burnt area time series from GFED2.1, GFED3 and LPX, but some features are common to all. GFED3 fire CO2 fluxes account for only about 1/3 of the variation in total CO2 flux during 1997–2005. This relationship appears to be dominated by the strong climatic dependence of deforestation fires. The relationship of LPX-modeled fire CO2 fluxes to total CO2 fluxes is weak. Observed and modeled total CO2 fluxes track the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) closely; GFED3 burnt area and global fire CO2 flux track the ENSO much less so. The GFED3 fire CO2 flux-ENSO connection is most prominent for the El Nino of 1997–1998, which produced exceptional burning conditions in several regions, especially equatorial Asia. The sign of the observed relationship between ENSO and fire varies regionally, and LPX captures the broad features of this variation. These complexities underscore the need for process-based modeling to assess the consequences of global change for fire and its implications for the carbon cycle.

title: Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models
abstract: Fire affects ecosystems by altering both their structure and the cycling of carbon and nutrients. The emissions from fires represent an important biogeochemical pathway by which the biosphere affects climate. For climate change studies it is important to model fire as a mechanistic climate-dependent process in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and the terrestrial ecosystem components of climate models. We expand on those current approaches which neglect disturbance by fire, which use constant specified loss rates, or which depend on simple empirical relationships, and develop a process-based fire parameterization for use in the terrestrial ecosystem components of climate and Earth system models. The approach is straightforward and general enough to apply globally and for current and future climates. All three aspects of the fire triangle, fuel availability, the readiness of fuel to burn depending on conditions, and the presence of an ignition source, are taken into account. The approach also represents some anthropogenic effects on natural fire regimes, albeit in a simple manner. The fire parameterization is incorporated in the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) which simulates net primary productivity, leaf area index, and vegetation biomass. The fire parameterization generates burned area, alters vegetation biomass, and generates CO2 emissions. The parameterization is tested by comparing simulated fire return intervals and CO2 emissions with observation-based estimates for tropical savanna, tropical humid forests, mediterranean, and boreal forest locations.

title: Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model
abstract: Fire is an integral Earth System process that interacts with climate in multiple ways. Here we assessed the parametrization of fires in the Community Land Model (CLM-CN) and improved the ability of the model to reproduce contemporary global patterns of burned areas and fire emissions. In addition to wildfires we extended CLMCN to account for fires related to deforestation. We compared contemporary fire carbon emissions predicted by the model to satellite-based estimates in terms of magnitude and spatial extent as well as interannual and seasonal variability. Long-term trends during the 20th century were compared with historical estimates. Overall we found the best agreement between simulation and observations for the fire parametrization based on the work by Arora and Boer(2005). We obtained substantial improvement when we explicitly considered human caused ignition and fire suppression as a function of population density. Simulated fire carbon emissions ranged between 2.0 and 2.4 Pg C/year for the period 1997–2004. Regionally the simulations had a low bias over Africa and a high bias over South America when compared to satellite-based products. The net terrestrial carbon source due to land use change for the 1990s was 1.2 Pg C/year with 11% stemming from deforestation fires. During 2000–2004 this flux decreased to 0.85 Pg C/year with a similar relative contribution from deforestation fires. Between 1900 and 1960 we predicted a slight downward trend in global Correspondence to: S. Kloster (silvia.kloster@zmaw.de) fire emissions caused by reduced fuels as a consequence of wood harvesting and also by increases in fire suppression. The model predicted an upward trend during the last three decades of the 20th century as a result of climate variations and large burning events associated with ENSOinduced drought conditions.

title: A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model
abstract: A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity has been developed for global simulations in the framework of a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) in an Earth System Model (ESM). Burned area in a grid cell is estimated by the product of fire counts and average burned area of a fire. The scheme comprises three parts: fire occurrence, fire spread, and fire impact. In the fire occurrence part, fire counts rather than fire occurrence probability are calculated in order to capture the observed high burned area fraction in areas of high fire frequency and realize parameter calibration based on MODIS fire counts product. In the fire spread part, post-fire region of a fire is assumed to be elliptical in shape. Mathematical properties of ellipses and some mathematical derivations are applied to improve the equation and assumptions of an existing fire spread parameterization. In the fire impact part, trace gas and aerosol emissions due to biomass burning are estimated, which offers an interface with atmospheric chemistry and aerosol models in ESMs. In addition, flexible time-step length makes the new fire parameterization easily applied to various DGVMs. Global performance of the new fire parameterization is assessed by using an improved version of the Community Land Model version 3 with the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM). Simulations are compared against the latest satellite-based Global Fire Emission Database version 3 (GFED3) for 1997–2004. Results show that simulated global totals and spatial patterns of burned area and fire carbon emissions, regional totals and spreads of burned area, global annual burned area fractions for various vegetation types, and interannual variability of burned area are reasonable, and closer to GFED3 than CLM-DGVM simulations with the commonly used Glob-FIRM fire parameterization and the old fire module of CLM-DGVM. Furthermore, average error of simulated trace gas and aerosol emissions due to biomass burning is 7% relative to GFED3. Results suggest that the new fire parameterization may improve the global performance of ESMs and help to quantify fire-vegetation-climate interactions on a global scale and from an Earth system perspective.

title: A model for global biomass burning in preindustrial time: LPJ-LMfire (v1.0)
abstract: Fire is the primary disturbance factor in many terrestrial ecosystems. Wildfire alters vegetation structure and composition, affects carbon storage and biogeochemical cycling, and results in the release of climatically relevant trace gases including CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, and aerosols. One way of assessing the impacts of global wildfire on centennial to multi-millennial timescales is to use process-based fire models linked to dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we present an update to the LPJ-DGVM and a new fire module based on SPITFIRE that includes several improvements to the way in which fire occurrence, behaviour, and the effects of fire on vegetation are simulated. The new LPJ-LMfire model includes explicit calculation of natural ignitions, the representation of multi-day burning and coalescence of fires, and the calculation of rates of spread in different vegetation types. We describe a new representation of anthropogenic biomass burning under preindustrial conditions that distinguishes the different relationships between humans and fire among hunter-gatherers, pastoralists, and farmers. We evaluate our model simulations against remote-sensing-based estimates of burned area at regional and global scale. While wildfire in much of the modern world is largely influenced by anthropogenic suppression and ignitions, in those parts of the world where natural fire is still the dominant process (e.g. in remote areas of the boreal forest and subarctic), our results demonstrate a significant improvement in simulated burned area over the original SPITFIRE. The new fire model we present here is particularly suited for the investigation of climate–human–fire relationships on multi-millennial timescales prior to the Industrial Revolution.

title: A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models
abstract: We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover; composition and height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a "random" model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). In general, the SDBM performs better than either of the DGVMs. It reproduces independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) but underestimates the amplitude of the observed CO 2 seasonal cycle. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the inter-annual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO 2 ), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change impacts and feedbacks.

title: Spatio‐temporal trends in tree cover of a tropical mesic savanna are driven by landscape disturbance
abstract: 1. How tree cover in tropical savannas changes through time and space is a major unresolved issue in ecology due to the complexity of these systems where fire, grazing, climatic variability and landscape variation interact, determining the spatial patterns of biomass. We aimed to assess the relative importance of fire and grazing in determining multi-decadal and landscape-scale patterns of savanna tree cover and biomass in a mesic savanna. 2. Assessment of digitized aerial photography, from 1964, 1984, 1991 and 2004, was undertaken for 40 sites at the Kapalga fire experimental area (∼1470 mm mean annual rainfall) in Kakadu National Park in monsoonal northern Australia. 3. Spatio-temporal changes in tree cover were analysed using linear mixed effects modelling, with multi-model inference in an information theoretic framework. 4. Savanna tree cover fluctuated greatly over the 40-year period, and varied spatially amongst the 40 sites, by 20-30% in a given time period. Tree cover was most likely to decline when initially high, and with a high frequency of fire, especially late dry season fire. The presence of a feral grazer had little effect other than through reducing fire frequency. Our results are consistent with an overall increase in tree cover in these mesic savannas during drier-than-average periods. 5. Ground-based measurements of change in stand basal area under experimental burning regimes agreed with the estimated effects of fire on tree cover at the same site based on our analyses of aerial photography. 6. Synthesis and applications. The dynamism of these mesic savannas is driven by variation in fire frequency and severity, which is influenced by feral grazers, creating a mosaic of tree cover that shifts over time in response to localized variation in disturbance. These findings are relevant to the management of this biome. We show that changing disturbance regimes alter the dynamics of these systems. Fire management incorporating a variety of fire regimes will promote the persistence of a savanna patch mosaic.

title: Fire-mediated interactions between shrubs in a South American temperate savannah
abstract: savannah, we established two plots (respectively 550 and 500 m 2 ) within which we mapped all surviving and dead shrubs as well as all individuals of shrub species that recruited in the following year. We used techniques of point-pattern analysis to test specific null hypotheses about spatial associations in the distribution, mortality, and establishment of shrubs. Results support the notions that fire mediates interactions between these two species. Fire-caused death of E. buniifolium tended to occur selectively in the vicinities of Baccharis individuals, and recruitment of B. dracunculifolia tended to be concentrated in the places of dead shrubs. These responses, however, were contingent on local abundances of shrubs which depend in part from the recent fire history. Anthropogenic perturbation of the natural fire regime would have therefore distorted the role of fire mediated interactions as drivers of the dynamics of the vegetation of this temperate savannah.

title: Resprouting as a key functional trait: how buds, protection and resources drive persistence after fire.
abstract: Resprouting as a response to disturbance is now widely recognized as a key functional trait among woody plants and as the basis for the persistence niche. However, the underlying mechanisms that define resprouting responses to disturbance are poorly conceptualized. Resprouting ability is constrained by the interaction of the disturbance regime that depletes the buds and resources needed to fund resprouting, and the environment that drives growth and resource allocation. We develop a buds-protection-resources (BPR) framework for understanding resprouting in fire-prone ecosystems, based on bud bank location, bud protection, and how buds are resourced. Using this framework we go beyond earlier emphases on basal resprouting and highlight the importance of apical, epicormic and below-ground resprouting to the persistence niche. The BPR framework provides insights into: resprouting typologies that include both fire resisters (i.e. survive fire but do not resprout) and fire resprouters; the methods by which buds escape fire effects, such as thick bark; and the predictability of community assembly of resprouting types in relation to site productivity, disturbance regime and competition. Furthermore, predicting the consequences of global change is enhanced by the BPR framework because it potentially forecasts the retention or loss of above-ground biomass.

title: Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model
abstract: The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) combines process-based, large-scale representations of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and land-atmosphere carbon and water exchanges in a modular framework. Features include feedback through canopy conductance between photosynthesis and transpiration and interactive coupling between these 'fast' processes and other ecosystem processes including resource competition, tissue turnover, population dynamics, soil organic matter and litter dynamics and fire disturbance. Ten plants functional types (PFTs) are differentiated by physiological, morphological, phenological, bioclimatic and fire-response attributes. Resource competition and differential responses to fire between PFTs influence their relative fractional cover from year to year. Photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and soil water dynamics are modelled on a daily time step, while vegetation structure and PFT population densities are updated annually. Simulations have been made over the industrial period both for specific sites where field measurements were available for model evaluation, and globally on a 0.5degrees x 0.5degrees grid. Modelled vegetation patterns are consistent with observations, including remotely sensed vegetation structure and phenology. Seasonal cycles of net ecosystem exchange and soil moisture compare well with local measurements. Global carbon exchange fields used as input to an atmospheric tracer transport model (TM2) provided a good fit to observed seasonal cycles of CO2 concentration at all latitudes. Simulated inter-annual variability of the global terrestrial carbon balance is in phase with and comparable in amplitude to observed variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 . Global terrestrial carbon and water cycle parameters (pool sizes and fluxes) lie within their accepted ranges. The model is being used to study past, present and future terrestrial ecosystem dynamics, biochemical and biophysical interactions between ecosystems and the atmosphere, and as a component of coupled Earth system models.

title: On the temperature dependence of soil respiration
abstract: From previously published measurements of soil respiration rate (R) and temperature (T) the goodness of fit of various R vs T relationships was evaluated. Exponential (Q 10 ) and conventional Arrhenius relationships between T and R cannot provide an unbiased estimate of respiration rate. Nor is a simple linear relationship appropriate. The relationship between R and T can, however, be accurately represented by an Arrhenius type equation where the effective activation energy for respiration varies inversely with temperature. An empirical equation is presented which yields an unbiased estimator of respiration rates over a wide range of temperatures. When combined with seasonal estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) the empirical relationship derived provides representative estimates of the seasonal cycle of net ecosystem productivity and its effects on atmospheric CO 2 (...)

title: An equilibrium model of the terrestrial carbon budget
abstract: The global terrestrial carbon budget is examined using a process-based model, DEMETER-1. In this version of the model, the carbon budgets of vegetation, litter and soil organic matter are simulated using simplified parameterizations of ecosystem processes and their climatic sensitivity. For the modern climate, the model simulates the carbon storage potential of the terrestrial biosphere: 800 Gt-C in vegetation, 150 Gt-C in litter and 1370 Gt-C in soil organic matter. The global and continental-scale simulations of net primary productivity and carbon storage are in good agreement with available observations. In particular, simulated biome-average soil carbon densities are in very strong agreement ( r = 0.9373) with published data. To obtain accurate simulations on the local and regional scales, more detailed treatments of ecosystem processes may be required, provided that they can be validated across the range of spatial and temporal scales.

title: Modelling the spread of grass fires
abstract: A simple elliptic model is developed for the spread of a fire front through grassland. This is used to predict theoretical fire fronts, which agree closely with those obtained in practice.

title: Extrapolation of synoptic meteorological data in mountainous terrain and its use for simulating forest evapotranspiration and photosynthesis
abstract: A model for calculating daily microclimate conditions in mountainous terrain is presented. Maximum–minimum daily air temperatures, precipitation, and dew point are extrapolated from valley stations...

title: Simulating fire regimes in human‐dominated ecosystems: Iberian Peninsula case study
abstract: A new fire model is proposed which estimates areas burnt on a macro-scale (10–100 km). It consists of three parts: evaluation of fire danger due to climatic conditions, estimation of the number of fires and the extent of the area burnt. The model can operate on three time steps, daily, monthly and yearly, and interacts with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), thereby providing an important forcing for natural competition. Fire danger is related to number of dry days and amplitude of daily temperature during these days. The number of fires during fire days varies with human population density. Areas burnt are calculated based on average wind speed, available fuel and fire duration. The model has been incorporated into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) and has been tested for peninsular Spain. LPJ-DGVM was modified to allow bi-directional feedback between fire disturbance and vegetation dynamics. The number of fires and areas burnt were simulated for the period 1974–94 and compared against observations. The model produced realistic results, which are well correlated, both spatially and temporally, with the fire statistics. Therefore, a relatively simple mechanistic fire model can be used to reproduce fire regime patterns in human- dominated ecosystems over a large region and a long time period.

title: Terrestrial vegetation and water balance-hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model
abstract: Earth’s vegetation plays a pivotal role in the global water balance. Hence, there is a need to model dynamic interactions and feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the water cycle. Here, the hydrological performance of the Lund –Potsdam – Jena model (LPJ), a prominent dynamic global vegetation model, is evaluated. Models of this type simulate the coupled terrestrial carbon and water cycle, thus they are well suited for investigating biosphere – hydrosphere interactions over large domains. We demonstrate that runoff and evapotranspiration computed by LPJ agree well with respective results from state-of-the-art global hydrological models, while in some regions, runoff is significantly over- or underestimated compared to observations. The direction and magnitude of these biases is largely similar to those from other macro-scale models, rather than specific to LPJ. They are attributable primarily to uncertainties in the climate input data, and to human interventions not considered by the model (e.g. water withdrawal, land cover conversions). Additional model development is required to perform integrated assessments of water exchanges among the biosphere, the hydrosphere, and the anthroposphere. Yet, the LPJ model can now be used to study inter-relations between the world’s major vegetation types and the terrestrial water balance. As an example, it is shown that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content alone would result in pronounced changes in evapotranspiration and runoff for many parts of the world. Although significant, these changes would remain unseen by stand-alone hydrological models, thereby emphasizing the importance of simulating the coupled carbon and water cycle. q 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

title: A Mathematical Model for Predicting Fire Spread in Wildland Fuels
abstract: The development of a mathematical model for predicting rate of fire spread and intensity applicable to a wide range of wildland fuels is presented from the conceptual stage through evaluation and demonstration of results to hypothetical fuel models. The model was developed for and is now being used as a basis for appraising fire spread and intensity in the National FireDanger Rating System. The initial work was done using fuel arrays composed of uniform size particles. Three fuel sizes were tested over a wide range of bulk densities. These were 0.026-inch-square cut excelsior, 114-inch sticks, and 112-inch sticks. The problem of mixed fuel sizes was then resolved by weighting the various particle sizes that compose actual fuel arrays by either surface area or loading, depending upon the feature of the fire being predicted. The model is complete in the sense that no prior knowledge of a fuel's burning characteristics is required. All that is necessary are inputs describing the physical and chemical makeup of the fuel and the environmental conditions in which it is expected to burn. Inputs include fuel loading, fuel depth, fuel particle surface-area-to-volume ratio, fuel particle heat content, fuel particle moisture and mineral content, and the moisture content at which extinction can be expected. Environmental inputs are mean wind velocity and slope of terrain. For heterogeneous mixtures, the fuel properties are entered for each particle size. The model as originally conceived was for dead fuels in a uniform stratum contiguous to the ground, such as litter or grass. I t has been found to be useful, however, for fuels ranging from pine needle litter to heavy logging slash and for California brush fields. The concept of fuel models is introduced, wherein parameters of wildland fuels necessary for inputs to the model are categbrized and tabulated. These are then used to predict fire spread and intensity; this eliminates the necessity for repeatedly measuring such parameters. The conceptual approach recognizes that fuels have inherent characteristics that are repeatable.

title: The Ratio of Cloud to Cloud-Ground Lightning Flashes in Thunderstorms
abstract: Observations of the ratio of cloud to cloud-ground lightning flashes in thunderstorms have been reviewed, and used to obtain empirical relationships between this ratio (z), latitude (λ) and annual thunder-days (T). The 29 observations, covering a latitude range 69°N to 37°S, gave a mean value of z of 3.35. The empirical relationship proposed between z and λ is z(λ) = 4.16 + 2.16 cos3λ, 0 ≤ λ ≤ 60°. From 26 pairs of values of z and T, covering the range 5 to 81 thunderdays per year, the proposed relationship is z(T) = 1.0 + 0.063T, 10 ≤ T ≤ 84 z = 6.3, T > 84. Information on z for high latitudes is sparse. It is probable that z lies between 1 and 2 for λ > 60° and T < 10. The existence of a relationship between z and T is attributed to the fact that both are related to latitude. The relationship between z and λ probably depends on the variation of freezing level height with latitude, and a possible relationship between z and freezing level height is examined. Where both λ and T are known, the prop...

title: Estimates of lightning ground flash density in Australia and its relationship to thunder-days
abstract: A method of deriving lightning ground flash density from CIGRE lightning flash counter registrations based on the detection efficiency of the instrument, independent of the latitudinal variation of cloud flash-to-ground flash ratio is presented. Using this method, the annual mean ground flash densities, Ng, over a period of up to 22 years were recalculated from the counter registrations for 17 selected Australian sites. The results were compared with the corresponding thunder-day data, Td, to obtain an empirical formula of the form Ng = a Td b. The best estimates of the empirical constants a and b derived using the proposed method were found to be 0.012 and 1.4 respectively. The derived Ng values were compared with the values obtained from three other established formulae developed by earlier workers in different countries. The Ng values were also compared with values derived using present methods of estimating lightning ground flash density which utilises the ratio of cloud flashes to ground flashes. Taking into account the improved method of calculation and the relatively long period of observation, we believe that the new empirical formula presented in this paper gives the best estimates of lightning ground flash density in Australia.

title: The intracloud/cloud-to-ground lightning ratio in Southeastern Brazil
abstract: The intracloud to cloud-to-ground lightning flash ratio ( Z ) has been estimated for the first time in Southeastern Brazil and in the tropical region using the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Brazilian lightning detection network (BrasilDat) lightning data obtained from 1999 to 2005. Geographical variations of Z and their relation to elevation, latitude, precipitation, total lightning density and percentage of positive CG lightning will be discussed. Daily variations of Z will also be presented. The results suggest that Z values are similar to studies outside the tropics and that are influenced by orographic features.

title: The Lightning Imaging Sensor
abstract: The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) is a NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) instrument on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) platform designed to acquire and investigate the distribution and variability of total lightning (i.e., cloud-to-ground and intracloud) between q35' in latitude. Since lightning is one of the responses of the atmosphere to thermodynamic and dynamic forcing, the LIS data is being used to detect deep convection without land-ocean bias, estimate the precipitation mass in the mixed phased region of thunderclouds, and differentiate storms with strong updrafts from those with weak vertical motion.

title: Updated high‐resolution grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3.10 Dataset
abstract: This paper describes the construction of an updated gridded climate dataset (referred to as CRU TS3.10) from monthly observations at meteorological stations across the world's land areas. Station anomalies (from 1961 to 1990 means) were interpolated into 0.5° latitude/longitude grid cells covering the global land surface (excluding Antarctica), and combined with an existing climatology to obtain absolute monthly values. The dataset includes six mostly independent climate variables (mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, precipitation, wet-day frequency, vapour pressure and cloud cover). Maximum and minimum temperatures have been arithmetically derived from these. Secondary variables (frost day frequency and potential evapotranspiration) have been estimated from the six primary variables using well-known formulae. Time series for hemispheric averages and 20 large sub-continental scale regions were calculated (for mean, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation totals) and compared to a number of similar gridded products. The new dataset compares very favourably, with the major deviations mostly in regions and/or time periods with sparser observational data. CRU TS3.10 includes diagnostics associated with each interpolated value that indicates the number of stations used in the interpolation, allowing determination of the reliability of values in an objective way. This gridded product will be publicly available, including the input station series (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ and http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/cru/).

title: Effects of lightning and other meteorological factors on fire activity in the North American boreal forest: implications for fire weather forecasting
abstract: The effects of lightning and other meteorological factors on wildfire activity in the North American boreal forest are statistically analyzed during the fire seasons of 2000–2006 through an integration of the following data sets: the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level 2 fire products, the 3-hourly 32-km gridded meteorological data from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the lightning data collected by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN) and the Alaska Lightning Detection Network (ALDN). Positive anomalies of the 500 hPa geopotential height field, convective available potential energy (CAPE), number of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and the number of consecutive dry days are found to be statistically important to the seasonal variation of MODIS fire counts in a large portion of Canada and the entirety of Alaska. Analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the eastern and western boreal forest regions shows that dry (in the absence of precipitation) lightning strikes account for only 20% of the total lightning strikes, but are associated with (and likely cause) 40% of the MODIS observed fire counts in these regions. The chance for ignition increases when a threshold of at least 10 dry strikes per NARR grid box and at least 10 consecutive dry days is reached. Due to the orientation of the large-scale pattern, complex differences in fire and lightning occurrence and variability were also found between the eastern and western sub-regions. Locations with a high percentage of dry strikes commonly experience an increased number of fire counts, but the mean number of fire counts per dry strike is more than 50% higher in western boreal forest sub-region, suggesting a geographic and possible topographic influence. While wet lightning events are found to occur with a large range of CAPE values, a high probability for dry lightning occurs only when 500 hPa geopotential heights are above ~5700 m and CAPE values are near the maximum observed level, underscoring the importance of low-level instability to boreal fire weather forecasts.

title: Optimized regional and interannual variability of lightning in a global chemical transport model constrained by LIS/OTD satellite data
abstract: Nitrogen oxides (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) produced by lightning make a major contribution to the global production of tropospheric ozone and OH. Lightning distributions inferred from standard convective parameterizations in global chemical transport models (CTMs) fail to reproduce observations from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite instruments. We present an optimal regional scaling algorithm for CTMs to fit the lightning NOxsource to the satellite lightning data in a way that preserves the coupling to deep convective transport. We show that applying monthly scaling factors over ∼37 regions globally significantly improves the tropical ozone simulation in the GEOS-Chem CTM as compared to a simulation unconstrained by the satellite data and performs equally well to a simulation with local scaling. The coarse regional scaling preserves sufficient statistics in the satellite data to constrain the interannual variability (IAV) of lightning. After processing the LIS data to remove their diurnal sampling bias, we construct a monthly time series of lightning flash rates for 1998–2010 and 35°S–35°N. We find a correlation of IAV in total tropical lightning with El Nino but not with the solar cycle or the quasi-biennial oscillation. The global lightning NOxsource ± IAV standard deviation in GEOS-Chem is 6.0 ± 0.5 Tg N yr−1, compared to 5.5 ± 0.8 Tg N yr−1 for the biomass burning source. Lightning NOx could have a large influence on the IAV of tropospheric ozone because it is released in the upper troposphere where ozone production is most efficient.

title: Parameterisation of a global daily weather generator for terrestrial ecosystem modelling
abstract: Many global ecological models require globally-gridded daily weather data, but such data are not directly available from the current global network of weather stations. A method is described whereby a stochastic daily weather generator is parameterised to operate at the half-degree scale for the earth's terrestrial surface. The weather generator simulates 24 h shortwave irradiance, precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and mean water vapour pressure. Parameterisation and use of the weather generator as described here obviates the need for real daily weather data for many applications. Mean monthly values of 24 h shortwave irradiance, fraction of wet days, precipitation per wet day, 24 h mean temperature amplitude, and mean water vapour pressure are required to parameterise the weather generator. These data are derived here from a database containing mean monthly relative sunshine duration, precipitation, and temperature gridded to the half-degree scale. Station-specific relationships between these data and those required by the weather generator are calculated for climate stations distributed around the earth. The regression parameters of these relationships are then gridded and applied to the database, which is based on many more stations than are available for the required weather generator parameters. The resulting global mean monthly data fields and the weather generator may be obtained from the author 1 .

title: A simple index for assessing fuel moisture content
abstract: Assessing fuel moisture content to within a reasonable degree of accuracy is an important part of wildland fire management. In this paper we introduce a fuel moisture index that provides a simple and intuitive method for assessing fuel moisture content. The method can be quickly and easily applied in a field setting to provide a dimensionless measure of fuel moisture content. We compare the index with predictions from several models for fuel moisture content and conclude that it provides an equivalent measure of fuel moisture content for a number of fuel types. We go on to briefly discuss how the index could be used to construct a simple and intuitive fire danger index.

title: A Review of Fine Fuel Moisture Modelling
abstract: Models describing the moisture content of forest fuels are an integral component of most fire behaviour prediction systems. In this paper, models of all aspects of moisture change in fine, dead, surface litter are examined and reviewed. Included are models describing the changes in moisture content associated with isother mal vapour exchange by sorption processes, and the effects of precipitation and condensation of liquid water. Models for predicting fuel temperature and humidity, and equilibrium moisture content are also assessed. Critical reviews of the assumptions underlying each model are made, and points of comparison and contrast explored. Some recommendations for future research are suggested.

title: An improved method for estimating surface humidity from daily minimum temperature
abstract: Minimum daily air temperature ( T n ) is often used as a surrogate for mean daily dew point (TI,day) to estimate near-surface humidity. This method is unreliable under arid conditions where nightly minimum temperatures may remain well above the dew point. Daily meteorological data from 52 weather stations within the continental US and Alaska were evaluated. Daily differences between T d,day and T n were large in arid climates, with corresponding vapor pressure differences averaging between 0.8 and 1.2 kPa on an annual basis. Sites with semi-arid characteristics showed a large degree of seasonality in the results with average vapor pressure differences ranging from 0.1 to 0.6 kPa between winter and summer months. Sites in other climate regimes generally showed small differences between T n and T d,day over the entire year, corresponding to average vapor pressure differences of less than 0.3 kPa. An empirical model was developed to improve the accuracy of T n based humidity estimates using daily air temperature, annual precipitation and estimated daily potential evapotranspiration. The model reduced humidity estimation errors by up to 80% at semi-arid and arid sites and had minimal effects when T n based humidity estimates were relatively accurate. The ratio of annual precipitation to estimated annual evapotranspiration was useful for distinguishing sites where T n based humidity estimates were relatively accurate from sites where estimation errors were large. The results of this investigation provide a simple, more accurate method than T n for estimating humidity in arid and semi-arid regions using general weather station data.

title: Global meta-analysis of wood decomposition rates: a role for trait variation among tree species?
abstract: The carbon flux from woody debris, a crucial uncertainty within global carbon-climate models, is simultaneously affected by climate, site environment and species-based variation in wood quality. In the first global analysis attempting to explicitly tease out the wood quality contribution to decomposition, we found support for our hypothesis that, under a common climate, interspecific differences in wood traits affect woody debris decomposition patterns. A meta-analysis of 36 studies from all forested continents revealed that nitrogen, phosphorus, and C : N ratio correlate with decomposition rates of angiosperms. In addition, gymnosperm wood consistently decomposes slower than angiosperm wood within common sites, a pattern that correlates with clear divergence in wood traits between the two groups. New empirical studies are needed to test whether this difference is due to a direct effect of wood trait variation on decomposer activity or an indirect effect of wood traits on decomposition microsite environment. The wood trait-decomposition results point to an important role for changes in the wood traits of dominant tree species as a driver of carbon cycling, with likely feedback to atmospheric CO(2) particularly where angiosperm species replace gymnosperms regionally. Truly worldwide upscaling of our results will require further site-based multi-species wood trait and decomposition data, particularly from low-latitude ecosystems.

title: Towards a worldwide wood economics spectrum.
abstract: Wood performs several essential functions in plants, including mechanically supporting aboveground tissue, storing water and other resources, and transporting sap. Woody tissues are likely to face physiological, structural and defensive trade-offs. How a plant optimizes among these competing functions can have major ecological implications, which have been under-appreciated by ecologists compared to the focus they have given to leaf function. To draw together our current understanding of wood function, we identify and collate data on the major wood functional traits, including the largest wood density database to date (8412 taxa), mechanical strength measures and anatomical features, as well as clade-specific features such as secondary chemistry. We then show how wood traits are related to one another, highlighting functional trade-offs, and to ecological and demographic plant features (growth form, growth rate, latitude, ecological setting). We suggest that, similar to the manifold that tree species leaf traits cluster around the 'leaf economics spectrum', a similar 'wood economics spectrum' may be defined. We then discuss the biogeography, evolution and biogeochemistry of the spectrum, and conclude by pointing out the major gaps in our current knowledge of wood functional traits.

title: Plant-driven variation in decomposition rates improves projections of global litter stock distribution.
abstract: Plant litter stocks are critical, regionally for their role in fueling fire regimes and controlling soil fertility, and globally through their feedback to atmospheric CO2 and climate. Here we employ two global databases linking plant functional types to decomposition rates of wood and leaf litter (Cornwell et al., 2008; Weedon et al., 2009) to improve future projections of climate and carbon cycle using an intermediate complexity Earth System model. Implementing separate wood and leaf litter decomposabilities and their temperature sensitivities for a range of plant functional types yielded a more realistic distribution of litter stocks in all present biomes with the exception of boreal forests and projects a strong increase in global litter stocks by 35 Gt C and a concomitant small decrease in atmospheric CO2 by 3 ppm by the end of this century. Despite a relatively strong increase in litter stocks, the modified parameterization results in less elevated wildfire emissions because of a litter redistribution towards more humid regions.

title: A Revised Land Surface Parameterization (SiB2) for Atmospheric GCMS. Part II: The Generation of Global Fields of Terrestrial Biophysical Parameters from Satellite Data
abstract: The global parameter fields used in the revised Simple Biosphere Model (SiB2) of Sellers et al. are reviewed. The most important innovation over the earlier SiB1 parameter set of Dorman and Sellers is the use of satellite data to specify the time-varying phonological properties of FPAR, leaf area index. and canopy greenness fraction. This was done by processing a monthly 1° by 1° normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset obtained farm Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer red and near-infrared data. Corrections were applied to the source NDVI dataset to account for (i) obvious anomalies in the data time series, (ii) the effect of variations in solar zenith angle, (iii) data dropouts in cold regions where a temperature threshold procedure designed to screen for clouds also eliminated cold land surface points, and (iv) persistent cloud cover in the Tropics. An outline of the procedures for calculating the land surface parameters from the corrected NDVI dataset is given, and a brief d...

title: Ecophysiological and bioclimatic foundations for a global plant functional classification
abstract: What plant properties might define plant functional types (PFTs) for the analysis of global vegetation responses to climate change, and what aspects of the physical environment might be expected to predict the distributions of PFTs?



Methods: We review principles to explain the distribution of key plant traits as a function of bioclimatic variables. We focus on those whole-plant and leaf traits that are commonly used to define biomes and PFTs in global maps and models.



 Raunkiaer's plant life forms (underlying most later classifications) describe different adaptive strategies for surviving low temperature or drought, while satisfying requirements for reproduction and growth. Simple conceptual models and published observations are used to quantify the adaptive significance of leaf size for temperature regulation, leaf consistency for maintaining transpiration under drought, and phenology for the optimization of annual carbon balance. A new compilation of experimental data supports the functional definition of tropical, warm-temperate, temperate and boreal phanerophytes based on mechanisms for withstanding low temperature extremes. Chilling requirements are less well quantified, but are a necessary adjunct to cold tolerance. Functional traits generally confer both advantages and restrictions; the existence of trade-offs contributes to the diversity of plants along bioclimatic gradients.



 Quantitative analysis of plant trait distributions against bioclimatic variables is becoming possible; this opens up new opportunities for PFT classification. A PFT classification based on bioclimatic responses will need to be enhanced by information on traits related to competition, successional dynamics and disturbance.

title: THE GLOBAL BIOGEOGRAPHY OF ROOTS
abstract: Studies in global plant biogeography have almost exclusively analyzed re- lationships of abiotic and biotic factors with the distribution and structure of vegetation aboveground. The goal of this study was to extend such analyses to the belowground structure of vegetation by determining the biotic and abiotic factors that influence vertical root distributions in the soil, including soil, climate, and plant properties. The analysis used a database of vertical root profiles from the literature with 475 profiles from 209 geographic locations. Since most profiles were not sampled to the maximum rooting depth, several techniques were used to estimate the amount of roots at greater depths, to a maximum of 3 m in some systems. The accuracy of extrapolations was tested using a subset of deeply ( .2 m) sampled or completely sampled profiles. Vertical root distributions for each profile were characterized by the interpolated 50% and 95% rooting depths (the depths above which 50% or 95% of all roots were located). General linear models incorporating plant life-form dominance, climate, and soil var- iables explained as much as 50% of the variance in rooting depths for various biomes and life-forms. Annual potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation together accounted for the largest proportion of the variance (12-16% globally and 38% in some systems). Mean 95% rooting depths increased with decreasing latitude from 808 to 308 but showed no clear trend in the tropics. Annual PET, annual precipitation, and length of the warm season were all positively correlated with rooting depths. Rooting depths in tropical veg- etation were only weakly correlated with climatic variables but were strongly correlated with sampling depths, suggesting that even after extrapolation, sampling depths there were often insufficient to characterize root profiles. Globally,.90% of all profiles had at least 50% of all roots in the upper 0.3 m of the soil profile (including organic horizons) and 95% of all roots in the upper 2 m. Deeper rooting depths were mainly found in water- limited ecosystems. Deeper 95% rooting depths were also found for shrublands compared to grasslands, in sandy soils vs. clay or loam soils, and in systems with relatively shallow

title: Functional explanations for variation in bark thickness in tropical rain forest trees
abstract: The complex structure of tree bark reflects its many functions, which include structural support as well as defence against fire, pests and pathogens. Thick bark, however, might limit respiration by the living tissues of the trunk. Nevertheless, little research has addressed community-level variation in bark thickness, and to the best of our knowledge, no one has tested multiple hypotheses to explain variation in bark thickness. We conducted an extensive survey of bark thickness within and among species of trees in the tropical rain forests of French Guiana. Trunk bark thickness increased by 1.2 mm per 10 cm increase in stem diameter, and varied widely at all taxonomic levels. Mean trunk bark thickness was 4.5 mm (range: 0.5-29 mm), which was less that found in two Amazonian rain forests in previous studies. This survey of bark thickness should be of use for forest management since tree survival through fire is strongly predicted by bark thickness. We combined the survey data with multiple datasets to test several functional hypotheses proposed to explain variation in bark thickness. We found bark to provide an average of 10% of the flexural rigidity of tree stems, which was substantially less than that found in the only other study of bark stiffness. Bark thickness was uncorrelated with species' association with fire-prone habitats, suggesting that the influence of fire on bark thickness does not extend into moist Forests. There was also little evidence that bark thickness is affected by its function as a defence against herbivory. Nor was there evidence that thick bark limits trunk respiration. A re-analysis of previously collected anatomical data indicated that variation in rhytidome (non-conducting outer bark) thickness explains much of the variation in overall bark thickness. As rhytidome is primarily involved in protecting the living tissues of the trunk, we suggest that bark thickness is driven mostly by its defensive function. Functional explanations for the variation in bark thickness were not clear-cut. Nevertheless, this study provides a foundation for further investigation of the functional bases of bark in tropical trees.

title: Fire‐induced tree mortality in a neotropical forest: the roles of bark traits, tree size, wood density and fire behavior
abstract: Large-scale wildfires are expected to accelerate forest dieback in Amazonia, but the fire vulnerability of tree species remains uncertain, in part due to the lack of studies relating fire-induced mortality to both fire behavior and plant traits. To address this gap, we established two sets of experiments in southern Amazonia. First, we tested which bark traits best predict heat transfer rates (R) through bark during experimental bole heating. Second, using data from a large-scale fire experiment, we tested the effects of tree wood density (WD), size, and estimated R (inverse of cam- bium insulation) on tree mortality after one to five fires. In the first experiment, bark thickness explained 82% of the variance in R, while the presence of water in the bark reduced the difference in temperature between the heat source and the vascular cambium, perhaps because of high latent heat of vaporization. This novel finding provides an important insight for improving mechanistic models of fire-induced cambium damage from tropical to temperate regions. In the second experiment, tree mortality increased with increasing fire intensity (i.e. as indicated by bark char height on tree boles), which was higher along the forest edge, during the 2007 drought, and when the fire return inter- val was 3 years instead of one. Contrary to other tropical studies, the relationship between mortality and fire intensity was strongest in the year following the fires, but continued for 3 years afterwards. Tree mortality was low ( � 20%) for thick-barked individuals ( � 18 mm) subjected to medium-intensity fires, and significantly decreased as a function of increasing tree diameter, height and wood density. Hence, fire-induced tree mortality was influenced not only by cambium insulation but also by other traits that reduce the indirect effects of fire. These results can be used to improve assessments of fire vulnerability of tropical forests.

title: Fire science for rainforests
abstract: Forest fires are growing in size and frequency across the tropics. Continually eroding fragmented forest edges, they are unintended ecological disturbances that transcend deforestation to degrade vast regions of standing forest, diminishing ecosystem services and the economic potential of these natural resources. Affecting the health of millions, net forest fire emissions may have released carbon equivalent to 41% of worldwide fossil fuel use in 1997–98. Episodically more severe during El Niño events, pan-tropical forest fires will increase as more damaged, less fire-resistant, forests cover the landscape. Here I discuss the current state of tropical fire science and make recommendations for advancement.

title: How do small savanna trees avoid stem mortality by fire? The roles of stem diameter, height and bark thickness
abstract: To recruit to reproductive size in fire-prone savannas, juvenile trees must avoid stem mortality (topkill) by fire. Theory suggests they either grow tall, raising apical buds above the flames, or wide, buffering the stem from fire. However, growing tall or wide is of no advantage without stem protection from fire. In Litchfield National Park, northern Australia, we explored the importance of bark thickness to stem survival following fire in a eucalypt-dominated tropical savanna. We measured bark thickness, prefire height, stem diameter and resprouting responses of small stems under conditions of low to moderate fire intensity. Fire induced mortality was low (<10%), topkill was uncommon (<11% of 5 m to 37% of 1 m tall stems) and epicormic resprouting was common. Topkill was correlated only with absolute bark thickness and not with stem height or width. Thus, observed height and diameter growth responses of small stems are likely different pathways to achieving bark thick enough to protect buds and the vascular cambium. Juvenile height was traded off against the cost of thick bark, so that wide stems were short with thicker bark for a given height. The fire resilience threshold for bark thickness differed between tall (4–5 mm) and wide individuals (8–9 mm), yet tall stems had lower PTopkill for a given bark thickness. Trends in PTopkill reflected eucalypt versus non-eucalypt differences. Eucalypts had thinner bark than non-eucalypts but lower PTopkill. With deeply embedded epicormic buds eucalypts do not need thick bark to protect buds and can allocate resources to height growth. Our data suggest the only ‘strategy' for avoiding topkill in fire-prone systems is to optimise bark thickness to maximise stem bud and cambium protection. Thus, escape height is the height at which bark protects the stem and a wide stem per se is insufficient protection from fire without thick bark. Consequently, absolute bark thickness is crucial to explanations of species differences in topkill, resprouting response and tree community composition in fire-prone savannas. Bark thickness and the associated mechanism of bud protection offer a proximate explanation for the dominance of eucalypts in Australian tropical savannas.

title: Survival by sprouting following fire in tropical forests of the Eastern amazon
abstract: Current anthropogenic activities in Amazonia are resulting in the widespread occurrence of fire; an ecosystem that is believed to have evolved in a fire-free environment. Even in areas away from intensified human land use, warmer and drier climatic conditions could increase the probability of fire in tropical forests. In this study the capacity of tree species to sprout following fire in disturbed moist tropical evergreen forests was quantified. Additionally, mortality and the modes of survival of standing forest trees at four sites were measured. Crown mortality ranged from 64-97 percent. Eight months after fire, 36-69 percent of all trees present on the sites at the time of burning were dead (i.e., no sprouting occurred). Out of 124 species measured (500 total individuals), 46 percent had the capacity to sprout from subterranean tissues and 27 percent sprouted from epicormic tissues. Forty-one percent of the sampled species were found to lack any capacity to sprout vegetatively. The percentage of individuals that survived by sprouting varied among tree species. Survival of the 14 most common species encountered ranged from 15-83 percent. Survival also varied among sites and this was primarily attributed to differences in fire severity. Fire severity and plant mortality were greatest in selectively logged forests that were intentionally burned for pasture conversion (> 65% mortality). One ecological advantage of sprouting over establishment from seeds is rapid regrowth and a greater capacity for exploitation of limited resources in tropical forests. Mean sprout height was 0.8-1.6 m for 8-month old sprouts and 4.2 m for 20-month old sprouts. IT IS WIDELY ACCEPTED that in undisturbed, closed canopy evergreen tropical forests, fire is an extremely rare, if not an impossible event under current climatic conditions (Mueller-Dombois 1981, Uhl et al. 1988b, Uhl & Kauffman 1990). However, with changes in land use, fire is becoming a widespread disturbance factor in Amazonia. Mosaics of logged forests, cattle pastures, settlements, and farm plots represent a new landscape in which fire is a very common phenomenon. Even in undisturbed rain forest, minor shifts towards warmer and drier conditions would greatly increase the probability of fire. Such shifts are likely if current technological, economic, and demographic trends continue (Salati 1987, Schneider 1989). As a result of an almost complete absence of naturally occurring fires (fire-return intervals of 600 or more years [Sanford et al. 19851), Amazonian moist and rain forest species are believed to have evolved with very few adaptations related specifically to postfire survival (Kauffman & Uhl, in press). Regardless of evolutionary derivation, all plants possess characteristics that may greatly influence their calacity to survive fire or some other disturbance. The capacity to sprout from epicormic tissues (i.e., dormant meristematic tissues beneath bark on trunks and branches) or from subterranean tissues following fire or other disturbance is a very widespread and probably an ancestral trait among many woody dicots (Wells 1969). Sprouting from subterranean tissues, coppicing, and epicormic sprouting has been reported to be a common means of regeneration among tropical forest species following disturbance (Knight 1975, Uhl et al. 1981, Putz & Brokaw

title: A review of the regeneration dynamics of North American boreal forest tree species
abstract: In this review, we focus on the biotic parameters that are crucial to an understanding of the recruitment dynamics of North American boreal tree species following natural (fire, budworm infestation, windthrow) or human-induced (clearcut, partial cut) disturbances. The parameters we emphasize are (i) the production of seeds and asexual stems (both of which, we argue, are a function of basal area density), (ii) the dispersal of seeds by wind (or the dispersion of asexual stems) as a function of distance from source, (iii) dormant seed bank capacity, (iv) organic layer depth as a determinant of germinant mortality and asexual bud response, and (v) shade tolerance as a partial arbiter of the density of advanced regeneration. Having identified the gaps in our knowledge, we conclude by suggesting a short-term research agenda whose completion would lead to the parameterized functions that would constitute the recruitment subroutine in a landscape-scale forest dynamics simulator.

title: Resprouting as a life history strategy in woody plant communities
abstract: Resprouting is an efficient means by which woody plants regain biomass lost during disturbance, but there is a life history trade-off that occurs in all disturbance regimes between investment in the current generation through resprouting vs investment in future generations at the same or more distant sites. The relative allocation to resprouting vs seeding in woody plant communities is dictated by the nature of disturbance regimes. Resprouting is the predominant response to the least severe disturbance regimes, but is also a common response in disturbance regimes of high severity, those that destroy most or all above-ground biomass, and which occur at medium to high frequency. The response to disturbance either by resprouting or seeding is dictated by the site's productivity. We present a comprehensive model for relative allocation to resprouting vs seeding across a range of disturbance regimes. Competition between plants that mostly seed vs those that mostly resprout should accentuate differences in allocation along a gradient of disturbance frequency. However the patchy nature of disturbance in time and space, coupled with gene flow among populations undergoing different disturbance regimes, ensures that it is unlikely that either resprouting or seeding will be the sole response in most plant communities at most disturbance frequencies. Additional influences on resprouting in woody plant communities include changes in allocation during the lifespan of individual plants and phylogenetic constraints that are expressed as biogeographic patterns.

title: Fire-stimulated rainforest seedling recruitment and vegetative regeneration in a densely grassed wet sclerophyll forest of north-eastern Australia
abstract: Details of plant regeneration, combined with soil seedbank data, are documented for a densely grassed wet sclerophyll forest in north-eastern Australia. The following two hypotheses were tested: (1) that established individuals of rainforest pioneer species are killed by low to moderate intensity fires and (2) that seedling recruitment of these species is evenly distributed throughout the intervals between fires. Both the sclerophyll and rainforest pioneer species displayed strong regenerative abilities as a response to low or moderate intensity fires. Most of the rainforest pioneer species were not killed by two recent fires but vegetatively regenerated. Alstonia muelleriana showed fire-enhanced vegetative expansion via root suckering. Both the sclerophyll and rainforest pioneer species were found to recruit seedlings primarily as a pulse in the first year or two after a fire, with limited recruitment after longer intervals between fires. This is consistent with suggestions that grass competition may limit tree recruitment. The germinable soil seedbank was dominated by rainforest pioneers, herbs and grasses, with heat treatment of the seedbank enhancing seed germination of two rainforest pioneer species. These results demonstrate the ability of rainforest pioneers to exploit the post-fire environment and indicate the complex nature of rainforest boundary dynamics. Further research into tropical rainforest expansion is required to examine the effects of fire regimes on vegetative and seedling regeneration across a range of sites.

title: Combined Satellite- and Surface-Based Estimation of the Intracloud Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Ratio over the Continental United States
abstract: Four years of observations from the NASA Optical Transient Detector and Global Atmospherics National Lightning Detection Network are combined to determine the geographic distribution of the climatological intracloud–cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning ratio, termed Z, over the continental United States. The value of Z over this region is 2.64–2.94, with a standard deviation of 1.1–1.3 and anomalies as low as 1.0 or less over the Rocky and Appalachian Mountains and as high as 8–9 in the central-upper Great Plains. There is some indication that Z covaries with ground elevation, although the relationship is nonunique. Little evidence is found to support a latitudinal covariance. The dynamic range of local variability is comparable to the range of values cited by previous studies for latitudinal variation from the deep Tropics to midlatitudes. Local high Z anomalies in the Great Plains are coincident with anomalies in the climatological percentage of positive CG occurrence, as well as in the occurrence of...

title: Sprouting in temperate trees: A morphological and ecological review
abstract: Sprouting in trees, which results in the production of secondary trunks, is an induced response to injury or to a dramatic change in surrounding environmental conditions. This article reviews the forestry and ecology literature to produce an integrated view of the role of sprouting in both disturbed habitats and closed-canopy forests. Sprouting is a universal attribute of temperate angiosperm trees through the sapling stage of development but is much less common among gymnosperms. Four basic types of sprout morphologies are described: collar sprouts from the base of the trunk, sprouts from specialized underground stems (lignotubers and rhizomes), sprouts from roots, and opportunistic sprouts from layered branches. In a survey of 68 species of trees native to northeastern North America, 41% were found to retain the ability to sprout from the collar into adulthood; 26% sprout from branch layers under natural conditions; and 25% have the capacity to form root suckers.Sprouting in seedlings promotes their survival under a variety of stressful conditions, including suppression by canopy trees, herbivory, site exposure, and desiccation. In contrast, sprouting in mature trees extends the life span of the individual following damage and, in the case of root-suckering species, promotes the colonization of new ground. Although the sprouting of mature trees is more conspicuous than the sprouting of seedlings, its ecological significance is not as great.As a broad generalization, species that grow in stressful sites or sites with frequent disturbances are likely to sprout more vigorously and to retain the sprouting ability longer than are species that grow in less stressful sites or sites with less frequent disturbance. Near the limits of a species’ altitudinal or latitudinal range, the production of basal sprouts, root suckers, rhizomes, and/or branch layers allows trees to spread into adjacent areas, thereby circumventing the difficulties associated with seedling establishment.

title: PLANT FUNCTIONAL TRAITS IN RELATION TO FIRE IN CROWN-FIRE ECOSYSTEMS
abstract: Disturbance is a dominant factor in many ecosystems, and the disturbance regime is likely to change over the next decades in response to land-use changes and global warming. We assume that predictions of vegetation dynamics can be made on the basis of a set of life-history traits that characterize the response of a species to disturbance. For crown-fire ecosystems, the main plant traits related to postfire persistence are the ability to resprout (persistence of individuals) and the ability to retain a persistent seed bank (persistence of populations). In this context, we asked (1) to what extent do different life- history traits co-occur with the ability to resprout and/or the ability to retain a persistent seed bank among differing ecosystems and (2) to what extent do combinations of fire- related traits (fire syndromes) change in a fire regime gradient? We explored these questions by reviewing the literature and analyzing databases compiled from different crown-fire ecosystems (mainly eastern Australia, California, and the Mediterranean basin). The review suggests that the pattern of correlation between the two basic postfire persistent traits and other plant traits varies between continents and ecosystems. From these results we predict, for instance, that not all resprouters respond in a similar way everywhere because the associated plant traits of resprouter species vary in different places. Thus, attempts to generalize predictions on the basis of the resprouting capacity may have limited power at a global scale. An example is presented for Australian heathlands. Considering the com- bination of persistence at individual (resprouting) and at population (seed bank) level, the predictive power at local scale was significantly increased.

title: The tortoise and the hare? Post-fire regeneration in mixed Eucalyptus-Callitris forest
abstract: Seedling regeneration after a high intensity wildfire was assessed in a mixed forest dominated by Eucalyptus species and Callitris endlicheri (Parl.) F.M. Bailey. Patterns were compared against the ‘slow seedling’ or ‘tortoise-and-hare’ theory of competitive interactions between gymnosperms and angiosperms. Browsing effects were documented using fenced plots, and seedling density, mortality and height were assessed over 6 years, from 2004–10. Consistent with expectations, Eucalyptus seedlings grew faster than Callitris seedlings in most situations. Callitris seedlings grew faster and produced seed cones sooner in plots with fewer Eucalyptus seedlings compared with plots with dense Eucalyptus seedlings. The local growth rates of Callitris seedlings were not associated with long-term site suitability for Callitris, as many plots with diminutive Callitris seedlings and dense Eucalyptus seedlings were dominated by Callitris trees before the 2003 fire. Contrary to expectations, few Callitris seedlings died during the 6-year period, so competition during the regeneration phase did not regulate co-existence. Strong drought tolerance and the ability to persist in dense, unthinned stands may enable Callitris to persist beneath dense Eucalyptus regeneration. Nevertheless, Callitris seedlings growing with dense Eucalyptus seedlings have a longer primary juvenile period than seedlings in sites with fewer seedling or adult eucalypts, which places these stands at greater risk of mortality in future fires and greater risk of browsing in the meantime.

title: Regeneration after wildfire in communities dominated by Pinus pinaster, an obligate seeder, and in others dominated by Quercus pyrenaica, a typical resprouter
abstract: The effects of wildfire on vegetation regeneration in communities dominated by Quercus pyrenaica and those dominated by Pinus pinaster in NW Spain were compared. In order to study changes in the composition and structure of both types of community, permanent plots were established in areas dominated by Q. pyrenaica and those dominated by P. pinaster. All were burned by wildfires at the end of summer. In each plot a permanent transect of 20 m ×1  m was established. Basal cover of the plant species present was analysed. In both types of community the global cover values generally increased throughout the study period. In the oak communities the species that appear in the first years are those that will dominate in the mature stage, like Q. pyrenaica and Erica australis. Both species are typical resprouters: from shoots on the rhizome or the stem of subterranean roots in the case of Q. pyrenaica and from lignotubers in the case of E. australis. Among the other species, herbaceous perennials dominated during the first year after the fire, Luzula lactea being the most representative. The percentage of bare soil decreased very rapidly after the first year of regeneration. However, in the P. pinaster communities the species that appeared with higher cover values during the first and second year after fire were seeders, like P. pinaster and Halimium alyssoides. Other species that appeared in these communities were Chamaespartium tridentatum, and E. australis. Amongst the herbaceous perennials, the most representative species was the Liliacea Ornithogalum umbellatum, which appeared throughout the study period in all the burned plots. The percentages of bare soil were higher than in the oak communities. Structural parameters such as diversity and specific richness were much higher in the community dominated by oak than in the pine stand. In general, regeneration after wildfire in the Pinus community was slower than in oak communities.

title: Evaluating Post-wildfire Vegetation Regeneration as a Response to Multiple Environmental Determinants
abstract: Vegetation regeneration in post-fire environments varies across the landscape of a burned area. Variations are caused by interacting factors, including soil properties, vegetation characteristics, hydrology, land management history, and burn severity. While many of these factors have been explored previously, few studies have investigated the combination of multiple factors. A time-series of the remotely sensed enhanced vegetation index data has been analyzed to estimate rates of regeneration across a burn in central Arizona. We used regression trees to evaluate post-fire vegetation response as a function of multiple factors. Regeneration was a function of elevation (likely a proxy for moisture availability), burn severity, pre-burn vegetation, and post-burn management activities. Both time-series vegetation data and regression trees were valuable tools for determining dominant interacting factors responsible for variations in post-fire regeneration. Evaluation of the time-series data and modeled post-fire vegetation permitted the interpretation of management actions across the burned area.

title: Post-fire vegetation recovery in Portugal based on spot/vegetation data
abstract: A procedure is presented that allows identifying large burned scars and the monitoring of vegetation recovery in the years following major fire episodes. The procedure relies on 10-day fields of Maximum Value Composites of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MVC-NDVI), with a 1 km×1 km spatial resolution obtained from the VEGETATION instrument. The identification of fire scars during the extremely severe 2003 fire season is performed based on cluster analysis of NDVI anomalies that persist during the vegetative cycle of the year following the fire event. Two regions containing very large burned scars were selected, located in Central and Southwestern Portugal, respectively, and time series of MVC-NDVI analysed before the fire events took place and throughout the post-fire period. It is shown that post-fire vegetation dynamics in the two selected regions may be characterised based on maps of recovery rates as estimated by fitting a monoparametric model of vegetation recovery to MVC-NDVI data over each burned scar. Results indicated that the recovery process in the region located in Central Portugal is mostly related to fire damage rather than to vegetation density before 2003, whereas the latter seems to have a more prominent role than vegetation conditions after the fire episode, e.g. in the case of the region in Southwestern Portugal. These differences are consistent with the respective predominant types of vegetation. The burned area located in Central Portugal is dominated by Pinus Pinaster whose natural regeneration crucially depends on the destruction of seeds present on the soil surface during the fire, whereas the burned scar in Southwestern Portugal was populated by Eucalyptus that may quickly re-sprout from buds after fire. Besides its simplicity, the monoparametric model of vegetation recovery has the advantage of being easily adapted to other low-resolution satellite data, as well as to other types of vegetation indices.

title: Monitoring post-wildfire vegetation response with remotely sensed time-series data in Spain, USA and Israel
abstract: Due to the challenges faced by resource managers in maintaining post-fire ecosystem health, there is a need for methods to assess the ecological consequences of disturbances. This research examines an approach for assessing changes in post-fire vegetation dynamics for sites in Spain, Israel and the USA that burned in 1998, 1999 and 2002 respectively. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series data (2000-07) are used for all sites to characterise and track the seasonal and spatial changes in vegetation response. Post-fire trends and metrics for burned areas are evaluated and compared with unburned reference sites to account for the influence of local environmental conditions. Time-series data interpretation provides insights into climatic influences on the post-fire vegetation. Although only two sites show increases in post-fire vegetation, all sites show declines in heterogeneity across the site. The evaluation of land surface phenological metrics, including the start and end of the season, the base and peak NDVI, and the integrated seasonal NDVI, show promising results, indicating trends in some measures of post-fire phenology. Results indicate that this monitoring approach, based on readily available satellite-based time-series vegetation data, provides a valuable tool for assessing post-fire vegetation response.

title: How do fires kill plants? The hydraulic death hypothesis and Cape Proteaceae “fire-resisters”
abstract: The actual mechanism which causes plant death after having been burned has been poorly studied. One possibility is that fire causes direct, or indirect, fatal damage to plant hydraulic systems. If true, this suggests that burned plants ultimately die of drought. This hypothesis was tested on the post-fire response of a “fire-resister” species of the Cape Proteaceae, as well as by analysing its morphology. Fire-resisters are plants which are incapable of resprouting, but nevertheless survive some fires. Mortality of the studied fire-resister appears to be compatible with a hydraulic death hypothesis because i) most post-fire mortality occurred within days, ii) it occurred from the base-upwards and iii) correlated negatively with stem diameter rather than plant height. Higher levels of survival of the fire-resister is probably due to absolutely thicker bark than co-occurring re-seeder species of the same age. Since this bark has not evolved to protect buds, it has probably evolved to protect stem hydraulic systems.

title: Earth-based spectroradiometric monitoring of forest decline
abstract: Global radiation, scattered at the crowns of trees, is spectrally analyzed to monitor and classify forestdecline. For this purpose the relative leaf area index is evaluated by means of a self-made six-channel-radiometer. Results for Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies are presented to demonstrate the reliability of the method.

title: Post-Fire Succession in Californian Coastal Sage Scrub: the Role of Continual Basal Sprouting.
abstract: Dominant shrub species of coastal sage scrub in coastal southern California are able to produce shoots from their base on a continual basis in the absence of fire or other major defoliation. As a result, each shrub becomes a population of mixed-aged branches (ramets) and extends its duration in the canopy beyond the age of any of its above-ground phytomass, reduces the incidence of senescence, and permits an individual (genet) to survive during long fire-free intervals. A computer simulation of succession in coastal sage scrub under differing fire intervals shows that continual basal sprouting may be significant in influencing the long-term composition of the vegetation.

title: Resprouting of Quercus suber in NE Spain after fire
abstract: Many Mediterranean species have evolved strate- gies that allow them to survive periodic wildfires. Quercus suber trees resprout after fire, some from stem buds and others from basal buds only. In the former case the canopy recovers quickly. In the latter case the stem dies but the tree survives and regrows from basal sprouts. The probability of stem death and the degree of height recovery were studied after a fire in a Q. suber forest in NE Spain using logistic regression analysis. The results suggest that most trees survive after fire; the probability of stem death is negatively related to tree diameter; and recovery is positively related to tree diameter and to bark thickness. Implication for management and conservation of cork-oak forests are discussed.

title: Post-fire monitoring of coast live oaks ( Quercus agrifolia ) burned in the 1993 Old Topanga Fire
abstract: The intensity of the 1993 Old Topanga Fire raised many concerns about the recovery and response of the coast live oak trees (Quercus agrifolia) and their understory vegetation. Preliminary information on the status of the trees 6 months post-fire has been previously reported. This report provides follow up assessment of the condition of the 90 trees in the original study and assesses the recovery of their understory vegetation over the 8 years since the burn. This long-term study documenting the recovery of coast live oak communities in three different locations (open riparian, ridgeline and valley riparian) illustrates the recovery potential under various conditions and burn frequency histories.

title: Life histories of Mediterranean pines
abstract: The life history of Spanish pines and their relation to fire as the main disturbance factor in their ecosystems was analysed. The primary ecological attributes studied were the canopy seed bank (onset of cone production, percentage and persistence of serotinous cones), seed and cone morphology, sprouting and bark thickness. Four ecological groups were separated using multivariate cluster analysis and their life-history characteristics are discussed. Serotiny and early flowering in Pinus halepensis and P. pinaster reflect their evader strategy in relation to fire as this character is advantageous to survive frequent crown fires and to attain successful post-fire recruitment. Late flowering and absence of serotinous cones in P. nigra, P. sylvestris and P. uncinata indicate that their natural forest did not evolve under frequent crown fires. P. canariensis and P. pinea appeared in two single groups because of their sprouting capability and their seed size respectively. Intraspecific variation in P. pinaster was also analysed using the same criteria and high variability was found in its life history traits. A group of P. pinaster populations showed high levels of serotiny and thin bark as a possible adaptation to frequent stand-replacing crown fires. In contrast, a group of non- or weakly-serotinous populations seems to have evolved under a low-intensity fire regime where the best fitness corresponds to thick-barked individuals capable of surviving ground fires. Intermediate strategies were also evident in this species and were discussed in relation to the effect of different fire regimes caused by the understorey vegetation.

title: FIRE SEVERITY AND PLANT AGE IN POSTFIRE RESPROUTING OF WOODY PLANTS IN SAGE SCRUB AND CHAPARRAL
abstract: Postfire resprouting by woody plants confers a marked advantage in rate of recovery over species that regenerate entirely from seed. However, the predictability of this advantage varies markedly between species, with some showing nearly 100% rootcrown survival and others often much lower. This study examined patterns of fire-caused mortality and tested the relative importance of fire severity and plant age between various shrubs and subshrubs characteristic of chaparral and sage scrub associations. Resprouting success varied from about 10% for Eriogonum fasciculatum to a high of 98% for Quercus berberidifolia. For most of the shrub species, skeletons of resprouting plants were significantly taller than those of dead individuals of the same species, indicating less biomass consumption, and thus lower severity fires were associated with higher resprouting success. This pattern was less strongly the case with sage scrub species. Shrubs and subshrubs, however, differed in the effect of aboveground plant age (as estimated by basal diameter) on resprouting success. For most chaparral shrubs, age was not related to resprouting success, whereas in four out of five subshrub species, including Artemisia californica, Eriogonum fasciculatum, Salvia leucophylla, and S. mellifera, the youngest plants exhibited the highest resprouting success. I hypothesize that the reason for this inverse relationship between age and resprouting in certain sage scrub species is that, as these subshrubs age, there is a tendency to loose the resprouting ability and the mechanism is quite possibly because adventitious buds responsible for sprouting become buried by woody tissues. Patterns of character evolution in these sage scrub lineages support the hypothesis that the herbaceous perennial mode of seasonal aestivation evolved early and lignification is a more recently derived trait and this may have negative effects on resprouting as the plant ages.

title: Fire season and intensity affect shrub recruitment in temperate sclerophyllous woodlands
abstract: The season in which a fire occurs may regulate plant seedling recruitment because of: (1) the interaction of season and intensity of fire and the temperature requirements for seed release, germination and growth; (2) post-fire rainfall and temperature patterns affecting germination; (3) the interaction of post-fire germination conditions and competition from surrounding vegetation; and (4) the interaction of post-fire germination conditions and seed predators and/or seedling herbivores. This study examined the effects of different fire intensities and fire seasons on the emergence and survival of shrubs representing a range of fire response syndromes from a summer rainfall cool climate region. Replicated experimental burns were conducted in two seasons (spring and autumn) in 2 consecutive years and fuel loads were increased to examine the effects of fire intensity (low intensity and moderate intensity). Post-fire watering treatments partitioned the effects of seasonal temperature from soil moisture. Higher intensity fires resulted in enhanced seedling emergence for hard-seeded species but rarely influenced survival. Spring fires enhanced seedling emergence across all functional groups. Reduced autumn recruitment was related to seasonal temperature inhibiting germination rather than a lack of soil moisture or competition. In Mediterranean-type climate regions, seedling emergence has been related to post-fire rainfall and exposure of seeds to seed predators. We think a similar model may operate in temperate summer rainfall regions where cold-induced dormancy over winter exposes seeds to predators for a longer time and subsequently results in recruitment failure. Our results support the theory that the effect of fire season is more predictable where there are strong seasonal patterns in climate. In this study seasonal temperature rather than rainfall appears to be more influential.

title: Seedling Recruitment Strategies in Obligate-Seeding and Resprouting Banksia Shrubs.
abstract: Banksia ericifolia is killed by fire and so depends upon seeds for persistence. In contrast, B. oblongifolia can persist after fire by resprouting from protected buds, as well as by recruiting seedlings. These serotinous species coexist in the fire-prone scrublands of the Sydney Basin. Here we report experiments that compared seed release from cones retained in the canopy, seed germination, and seedling establishment in these two species. B. oblongifolia seeds were released more quickly than B. ericifolia seeds after a fire, and B. oblongifolia follicles opened and shed seeds after exposure to lower temperatures than those of B. ericifolia. B. oblongifolia seeds germinated more quickly than those of B. ericifolia. The relative growth rates and leaf mass ratios (mean ratio of leaf dry mass to plant dry mass over sequential harvests) of the two species did not differ. Root : shoot ratios were significantly large and biomass allocation to roots was faster in B. oblongifolia seedlings. B. ericifolia seedlings survived low and intermediate levels of droughting better than B. oblongifolia under greenhouse conditions. In a field experiment in which water was not limiting, large B. oblongifolia seedlings had the highest survival rate. These results suggest that selection has acted on B. ericifolia to minimize the chance of zero seedling survival by distributing the risks over more than one germination episode. There was no consistent evidence to support the hypothesis that selection on this species has increased its probability of seedling survival during any one germination opportunity relative to its congener.

title: AN IMPROVED METHOD OF CONSTRUCTING A DATABASE OF MONTHLY CLIMATE OBSERVATIONS AND ASSOCIATED HIGH-RESOLUTION GRIDS
abstract: A database of monthly climate observations from meteorological stations is constructed. The database includes six climate elements and extends over the global land surface. The database is checked for inhomogeneities in the station records using an automated method that refines previous methods by using incomplete and partially overlapping records and by detecting inhomogeneities with opposite signs in different seasons. The method includes the development of reference series using neighbouring stations. Information from different sources about a single station may be combined, even without an overlapping period, using a reference series. Thus, a longer station record may be obtained and fragmentation of records reduced. The reference series also enables 1961–90 normals to be calculated for a larger proportion of stations. The station anomalies are interpolated onto a 0.5° grid covering the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) and combined with a published normal from 1961–90. Thus, climate grids are constructed for nine climate variables (temperature, diurnal temperature range, daily minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, wet-day frequency, frost-day frequency, vapour pressure, and cloud cover) for the period 1901–2002. This dataset is known as CRU TS 2.1 and is publicly available (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/).

title: Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World
abstract: African Journal of Range & Forage Science is co-published by NISC (Pty) Ltd and Taylor & Francis This book provides a very detailed discussion of the current knowledge of the role of fire in different ecosystems in Australia. Each topic is covered in the form of a scientific paper by experts in the specific field, providing a synthesis of the current knowledge of the drivers of fire and the outcomes of various fire regimes in Australian landscapes. I regard this book as a valuable reference work for fire ecologists as well as students in fire ecology. The book covers most of the relevant issues related to fire management including an interesting overview of historical responses to changing fire regimes. One of the central themes is vegetation change as related to different fire regimes. Aboriginal fires were mostly in the form of patch burns, and were implemented to provide a variety of defined outcomes such as creating grazing patches and improving hunting possibilities. This practice was discontinued with the arrival of European colonists who were very disinclined to use fire as a management tool. The diverse outcomes of these two approaches on the Australian faunal and floral landscape provide insights that may also improve our understanding of observed changes in Southern Africa. The detailed discussion on the drivers that influence fire regimes and the responses of different vegetation types to these, provide insight into the factors that should be considered when planning for specific outcomes using fire as a management tool. Even though African savannas differ from those in Australia, the discussion on fire regimes in different ecosystems and the resultant responses is insightful and could certainly contribute to our knowledge of fire effects on our local ecosystems. The book covers four main topics, each with a series of papers addressing the specific topic.

title: Analysis of daily, monthly, and annual burned area using the fourth‐generation global fire emissions database (GFED4)
abstract: We describe the fourth generation of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED4) burned area data set, which provides global monthly burned area at 0.25°  spatial resolution from mid-1995 through the present and daily burned area for the time series extending back to August 2000. We produced the full data set by combining 500 m MODIS burned area maps with active fire data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) family of sensors. We found that the global annual area burned for the years 1997 through 2011 varied from 301 to 377Mha, with an average of 348Mha. We assessed the interannual variability and trends in burned area on the basis of a region-specific definition of fire years. With respect to trends, we found a gradual decrease of 1.7Mhayr  − 1 ( − 1.4%yr  − 1) in Northern Hemisphere Africa since 2000, a gradual increase of 2.3Mhayr  − 1 (+1.8%yr  − 1) in Southern Hemisphere Africa also since 2000, a slight increase of 0.2Mhayr  − 1 (+2.5%yr  − 1) in Southeast Asia since 1997, and a rapid decrease of approximately 5.5Mhayr  − 1 ( − 10.7%yr  − 1) from 2001 through 2011 in Australia, followed by a major upsurge in 2011 that exceeded the annual area burned in at least the previous 14 years. The net trend in global burned area from 2000 to 2012 was a modest decrease of 4.3Mhayr  − 1 ( − 1.2%yr  − 1). We also performed a spectral analysis of the daily burned area time series and found no vestiges of the 16 day MODIS repeat cycle.

title: Comprehensive Survey on Distance/Similarity Measures between Probability Density Functions
abstract: Distance or similarity measures are essential to solve many pattern recognition problems such as classification, clustering, and retrieval problems. Various distance/similarity measures that are applicable to compare two probability density functions, pdf in short, are reviewed and categorized in both syntactic and semantic relationships. A correlation coefficient and a hierarchical clustering technique are adopted to reveal similarities among numerous distance/similarity measures.

title: Mapping forest canopy height globally with spaceborne lidar
abstract: Data from spaceborne light detection and ranging (lidar) opens the possibility to map forest vertical structure globally. We present a wall-to-wall, global map of canopy height at 1-km spatial resolution, using 2005 data from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) aboard ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite). A challenge in the use of GLAS data for global vegetation studies is the sparse coverage of lidar shots (mean = 121 data points/degree2 for the L3C campaign). However, GLAS-derived canopy height (RH100) values were highly correlated with other, more spatially dense, ancillary variables available globally, which allowed us to model global RH100 from forest type, tree cover, elevation, and climatology maps. The difference between the model predicted RH100 and footprint level lidar-derived RH100 values showed that error increased in closed broadleaved forests such as the Amazon, underscoring the challenges in mapping tall (>40 m) canopies. The resulting map was validated with field measurements from 66 FLUXNET sites. The modeled RH100 versus in situ canopy height error (RMSE = 6.1 m, R2 = 0.5; or, RMSE = 4.4 m, R2 = 0.7 without 7 outliers) is conservative as it also includes measurement uncertainty and sub pixel variability within the 1-km pixels. Our results were compared against a recently published canopy height map. We found our values to be in general taller and more strongly correlated with FLUXNET data. Our map reveals a global latitudinal gradient in canopy height, increasing towards the equator, as well as coarse forest disturbance patterns.

title: ISLSCP initiative II global data sets : Surface boundary conditions and atmospheric forcings for land-atmosphere studies
abstract: We report herein the publication and evaluation of the International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Initiative II global interdisciplinary data record. The record consists of 52 data sets, with a common series in the 10-year period 1985 to 1996. Selected data series extend well beyond this period. All series are coregistered to a common grid and gap-filled for continuity using uniform procedures. We describe briefly the individual data sets within the collection; provide user guidance; and contrast, compare and evaluate those data sets containing similar parameters (land cover, NDVI, albedo, precipitation and near-surface meteorology). We also describe the process used to develop the Initiative II collection which involved a broad international scientific community focused on addressing a well-defined set of carbon, water and energy cycle questions within the context of a specific set of analysis tools. The communities that drove the definition of the Initiative II collection were investigators within the international scientific communities of the Global Energy and Water cycle Experiment, GEWEX, program (http://www.gewex.org/); the International Geosphere/Biosphere Program IGBP (http://www.igbp.kva.se); and the U.S. Global Change Research Program, USGCRP (http://www.usgcrp.gov/). Finally, we report usage statistics based on access and download of files from the ISLSCP Initiative II collection available at http://www.daac.ornl.gov.

title: Relationships between percent vegetation cover and vegetation indices
abstract: In this paper, percent vegetation cover is estimated from vegetation indices using simulated Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data derived from in situ spectral reflectance data. Spectral reflectance measurements were conducted on grasslands in Mongolia and Japan. Vegetation indices such as the normalized difference, soil-adjusted, modified soil-adjusted and transformed soil-adjusted vegetation indices (NDVI, SAVI, MSAVI and TSAVI) were calculated from the spectral reflectance of various vegetation covers. Percent vegetation cover was estimated using pixel values of red, green and blue bands of digitized colour photographs. Relationships between various vegetation indices and percent vegetation cover were compared using a second-order polynomial regression. TSAVI and NDVI gave the best estimates of vegetation cover for a wide range of grass densities.

title: A comparison of methods for estimating fractional green vegetation cover within a desert-to-upland transition zone in central New Mexico, USA
abstract: We compared a set of methods for estimating fractional green vegetation cover (fc) over a ¨4000 km 2 region of central New Mexico, USA. The models used were trained and tested independently using high-resolution, true-color orthoimagery with 0.3 m spatial resolution. Simple NDVI-based methods performed well for estimating fc regionally but overestimated fc in sparsely vegetated areas with bright soils, and areas with abundant non-photosynthetic vegetation (e.g. dry shrubs). Three-, four-, and five-endmember spectral mixture models (SMA3, SMA4, and SMA5) were also compared. Constrained versions of these models all produced similar accuracy regionally, but constrained and unconstrained versions of the SMA5 model best captured fc for the rarer landscapes (bright soils, riparian vegetation) found throughout the region. This indicates that heterogeneous landscapes can be stratified into relatively homogeneous strata, and three or four endmembers may be adequate to characterize the spectral variability within each stratum. Including NDVI along with the six reflective bands of ETM+ data, provided enough data dimensionality to support the five-endmember SMA model. This permitted a more complete representation of the range of spectral landscape types that are germane for separating out green vegetation in this semi-arid region. We also note that green woody vegetation and green grass cover should be spectrally represented by two different endmembers in SMA because these two vegetation types are spectrally different, particularly in the near-infrared (NIR) wavelength.

title: Incorporating NDVI-Derived LAI into the Climate Version of RAMS and Its Impact on Regional Climate
abstract: In this study, a climate version of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (ClimRAMS) was used to investigate the sensitivity of regional climate simulations to changes in vegetation distribution in the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain regions of the United States. The evolution of vegetation phenology was assimilated into the ClimRAMS in the form of estimates of the leaf area index (LAI) derived from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Initially, two model integrations were made. In the first, the NDVI-derived vegetation distribution was used, while the second integration used the model's “default” description of vegetation. The simulated near-surface climate was drastically altered by the introduction of NDVI-derived LAI, especially in the growing season, with the run in which observed LAI was assimilated producing, in general, a wetter and colder near-surface climate than the default run. A third model experiment was then carried out in which the (comparatively more homogeneous...

title: Strategy Space and the Disturbance Spectrum: A Life‐History Model for Tree Species Coexistence
abstract: The disturbance spectrum consists of disturbance patterns differing in type, size, intensity, and frequency. It is proposed that tree life‐history traits are adaptations to particular disturbance regimes. Four independent axes are proposed to define the dominant dimensions of tree strategy space: shade tolerance, tree height, capacity for vegetative reproduction, and seed dispersal distance. A fitness model was developed to elucidate interactions between the proposed life‐history traits. The model shows how alternate life‐history sets can coexist when disturbance patterns fluctuate in space and time. Variable disturbance regimes were shown, based on data and simulation results, to enhance species coexistence, as predicted. The strategy space model accurately predicts the number of common tree species for the eastern United States, boreal Canada, and southwestern piñon‐juniper woodlands. The model also provides an explanation for latitudinal gradients in tree species richness in North America and Europe. The proposed model predicts a relationship between disturbance characteristics and the species composition of a forest that allows for the coexistence of large numbers of species. The life‐history traits of size, growth rate, life span, shade tolerance, age of reproduction, seed dispersal distance, and vegetative reproduction are all incorporated into the model.

title: Simulating the effects of future fire regimes on western Canadian boreal forests
abstract: Effects of future fire regimes on boreal tree species and plant functional types were studied in W Canada using a simulation approach. Present (1975–1990) and future (2080–2100) fire regimes were simulated using data from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM1). The long-term effects of these fire regimes were simulated using a stand level, boreal fire effects model (BORFIRE) developed for this study. Changes in forest composition and biomass storage due to future altered fire regimes were determined by comparing the effects of present and future fire regimes on forest stands over a 400-yr period. Differences in the two scenarios after 400 yr indicate shifting trends in forest composition and biomass that can be expected as a result of future changes in the fire regime. The ecological impacts of altered fire regimes are discussed in terms of general plant functional types. The Canadian Global Coupled Model showed more severe burning conditions under future fire regimes including fires with greater intensity, greater depth of burn and greater total fuel consumption. Shorter fire cycles estimated for the future generally favoured species which resprout (fire endurers) or store seed (fire evaders). Species with no direct fire survival traits (fire avoiders) declined under shorter fire cycles. The moderately thick barked trait of fire resisters provided little additional advantage in crown fire dominated boreal forests. Many species represent PFTs with multiple fire survival traits. The fire evader and avoider PFT was adaptable to the widest range of fire cycles. There was a general increase in biomass storage under the simulated future fire regimes caused by a shift in species composition towards fast-growing re-sprouting species. Long-term biomass storage was lower in fire exclusion simulations because some stands were unable to reproduce in the absence of fire.

title: Flammable biomes dominated by eucalypts originated at the Cretaceous-Palaeogene boundary.
abstract: Fire is a major modifier of communities, but the evolutionary origins of its prevalent role in shaping current biomes are uncertain. Australia is among the most fire-prone continents, with most of the landmass occupied by the fire-dependent sclerophyll and savanna biomes. In contrast to biomes with similar climates in other continents, Australia has a tree flora dominated by a single genus, Eucalyptus, and related Myrtaceae. A unique mechanism in Myrtaceae for enduring and recovering from fire damage likely resulted in this dominance. Here, we find a conserved phylogenetic relationship between post-fire resprouting (epicormic) anatomy and biome evolution, dating from 60 to 62 Ma, in the earliest Palaeogene. Thus, fire-dependent communities likely existed 50 million years earlier than previously thought. We predict that epicormic resprouting could make eucalypt forests and woodlands an excellent long-term carbon bank for reducing atmospheric CO(2) compared with biomes with similar fire regimes in other continents.

title: The HYDE 3.1 spatially explicit database of human‐induced global land‐use change over the past 12,000 years
abstract: This paper presents a tool for long-term global change studies; it is an update of the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) with estimates of some of the underlying demographic and agricultural driving factors. 
 
Historical population, cropland and pasture statistics are combined with satellite information and specific allocation algorithms (which change over time) to create spatially explicit maps, which are fully consistent on a 5′ longitude/latitude grid resolution, and cover the period 10,000 bc to ad 2000. 
 
Cropland occupied roughly less than 1% of the global ice-free land area for a long time until ad 1000, similar to the area used for pasture. In the centuries that followed, the share of global cropland increased to 2% in ad 1700 (c. 3 million km2) and 11% in ad 2000 (15 million km2), while the share of pasture area grew from 2% in ad 1700 to 24% in ad 2000 (34 million km2) These profound land-use changes have had, and will continue to have, quite considerable consequences for global biogeochemical cycles, and subsequently global climate change. 
 
Some researchers suggest that humans have shifted from living in the Holocene (emergence of agriculture) into the Anthropocene (humans capable of changing the Earth's atmosphere) since the start of the Industrial Revolution. But in the light of the sheer size and magnitude of some historical land-use changes (e.g. as result of the depopulation of Europe due to the Black Death in the 14th century and the aftermath of the colonization of the Americas in the 16th century) we believe that this point might have occurred earlier in time. While there are still many uncertainties and gaps in our knowledge about the importance of land use (change) in the global biogeochemical cycle, we hope that this database can help global (climate) change modellers to close parts of this gap.

title: What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in Southern Africa
abstract: The factors controlling the extent of fire in Africa south of the equator were investigated using moderate resolution (500 m) satellite-derived burned area maps and spatial data on the environmental factors thought to affect burnt area. A random forest regression tree procedure was used to determine the relative importance of each factor in explaining the burned area fraction and to address hypotheses concerned with human and climatic influences on the drivers of burnt area. The model explained 68% of the variance in burnt area. Tree cover, rainfall in the previous 2 years, and rainfall seasonality were the most important predictors. Human activities – represented by grazing, roads per unit area, population density, and cultivation fraction – were also shown to affect burnt area, but only in parts of the continent with specific climatic conditions, and often in ways counter to the prevailing wisdom that more human activity leads to more fire. The analysis found no indication that ignitions were limiting total burnt area on the continent, and most of the spatial variation was due to variation in fuel load and moisture. Split conditions from the regression tree identified (i) low rainfall regions, where fire is rare; (ii) regions where fire is under human control; and (iii) higher rainfall regions where burnt area is determined by rainfall seasonality. This study provides insights into the physical, climatic, and human drivers of fire and their relative importance across southern Africa, and represents the beginnings of a predictive framework for burnt area.