The Future of Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Concern about the future of Amazonian forests is growing as both the extent and rate of primary forest destruction increase. We combine spatial information on various biophysical, demographic and infrastructural factors in the Brazilian Amazon with satellite data on deforestation to evaluate the relative importance of each factor to deforestation in the region. We assess the sensitivity of results to alternative sampling methodologies, and compare our results to those of previous empirical studies of Amazonian deforestation. Our findings, in concert with those of previous studies, send a clear message to planners: both paved and unpaved roads are key drivers of the deforestation process. Proximity to previous clearings, high population densities, low annual rainfall, and long dry seasons also increase the likelihood that a site will be deforested; however, roads are consistently important and are the factors most amenable to policymaking. We argue that there is ample evidence to justify a fundamental change in current Amazonian development priorities if additional large-scale losses of forests and environmental services are to be avoided.

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title: Environmental services as a strategy for sustainable development in rural Amazonia
abstract: Rural Amazonians, especially Indians, extractivists and other forest dwellers, desperately need something that they can sell. Sale of material commodities taken from the rainforest is the focus of most attempts to encourage ‘sustainable development’ for these populations, but the mother lode waiting to be tapped is not a material commodity, but rather the forest's environmental services. Converting services like biodiversity maintenance, carbon storage and water cycling into monetary flows that can support a population of forest guardians requires crossing a series of hurdles. Reliable quantification of the magnitude of services being offered is a first necessity. How to convert forest environmental services into an income stream, and how to convert this stream into a foundation for sustainable development in rural Amazonia is a great challenge. Effort should be focused on tapping environmental services as a long-term strategy for maintaining both rainforest and its population. In addition to progressing toward long-term goals, immediate measures are needed to support the population and to avoid further loss of forest.

title: Deforestation and land use in the Brazilian Amazon
abstract: Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon was less than 1% before 1975. Between 1975 and 1987 the rate increased exponentially. By 1985, world opinion and attention to the destruction of the richest biome on earth led to elimination of some of the major incentives that had fueled deforestation. Favorable credit policies for cattle ranchers, rather than population growth, explains the process of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The paper suggests other actions that may be taken to reduce deforestation, and examines the rapid growth rates of secondary successional species in a colonization area.

title: A crisis in the making: responses of Amazonian forests to land use and climate change.
abstract: At least three global-change phenomena are having major impacts on Amazonian forests: (1) accelerating deforestation and logging; (2) rapidly changing patterns of forest loss; and (3) interactions between human land-use and climatic variability. Additional alterations caused by climatic change, rising concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, mining, overhunting and other large-scale phenomena could also have important effects on the Amazon ecosystem. Consequently, decisions regarding Amazon forest use in the next decade are crucial to its future existence.

title: Road paving, fire regime feedbacks, and the future of Amazon forests
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title: Predominant land uses in Brazilian Amazonia.
abstract: Fearnside, P.M. 1990. Predominant land uses in the Brazilian Amazon. pp. 235-251 In: A.B. Anderson (compilador) Alternatives to Deforestation: Towards Sustainable Use of the Amazon Rain Forest. Columbia University Press, New York,   The original publication is available from: Columbia University Press, New York, U.S.A.

title: Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia: the effect of population and land tenure
abstract: LANDSAT data for 1978, 1988, 1989, 1990 and 1991 indicate that by 1991 the area of forest cleared had reached 426.000 km2 (10.5 of the 4 million Km2 originally forested portion of Brazil's 5 million km2 legal Amazon Region). Over the 1978-1988 period, forest was lost at a rate of 22.000 km2 yr-1 (including hydroelectric flooding), while the rate was 19.000 km2 yr-1 for 1988-1989, 14.000 km2 yr-1 for 1989-1990 and 11.000 yr-1 for 1990-1991. The reduction in the rate since 1987 has mostly been due to Brazil's economic recession rather than to any policy changes. The number of properties censured in each size class explains 74 of the variation in deforestation rate among the 9 Amazonian states. Multiple regressions indicate that 30 of the clearing in 1991 can be attributed to small farmers (properties

title: Soybean cultivation as a threat to the environment in Brazil
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title: Crossing spatial analyses and livestock economics to understand deforestation processes in the Brazilian Amazon: the case of Sao Felix do Xingu in South Para
abstract: The Amazon is the largest tropical forest area on Earth, and has been undergoing rapid deforestation for the last four decades. In the Brazilian Amazon, large-scale pasture for cattle ranching and soybean production are the main land uses, leading to a yearly deforestation rate of 0.5%. These conversions are mostly located in frontier areas distributed along the so-called "arc of deforestation". Within this large zone, various land use change processes are interacting through several modes of land valuation and organisation. From several case studies in the State of Para (Brazil), the current project aims at analysing how landscape dynamics are related to infrastructure development, ecological conditions, zoning policies and to the evolution and the organisation of the production, consumption and marketing chains of livestock products. This paper presents the results for one test site, the region of Sao Felix do Xingu, South of Para. This region is the focus of land speculation, cattle expansion, and deforestation. Road construction, investments in electrical energy, financial credit for cattle, and the land reform policies have all fuelled this process. All these factors make this region one of the most dynamic agricultural frontiers in the Brazilian Amazon. The main objective of the paper is to improve our understanding of deforestation processes by crossing spatial analyses and livestock economics studies, and to characterise the role and impact of various natural and anthropic factors in the location and development of the main types of farmers, and their policy implications.

title: Crossing spatial analyses and livestock economics to understand deforestation processes in the Brazilian Amazon: the case of Sao Felix do Xingu in South Para
abstract: The Amazon is the largest tropical forest area on Earth, and has been undergoing rapid deforestation for the last four decades. In the Brazilian Amazon, large-scale pasture for cattle ranching and soybean production are the main land uses, leading to a yearly deforestation rate of 0.5%. These conversions are mostly located in frontier areas distributed along the so-called "arc of deforestation". Within this large zone, various land use change processes are interacting through several modes of land valuation and organisation. From several case studies in the State of Para (Brazil), the current project aims at analysing how landscape dynamics are related to infrastructure development, ecological conditions, zoning policies and to the evolution and the organisation of the production, consumption and marketing chains of livestock products. This paper presents the results for one test site, the region of Sao Felix do Xingu, South of Para. This region is the focus of land speculation, cattle expansion, and deforestation. Road construction, investments in electrical energy, financial credit for cattle, and the land reform policies have all fuelled this process. All these factors make this region one of the most dynamic agricultural frontiers in the Brazilian Amazon. The main objective of the paper is to improve our understanding of deforestation processes by crossing spatial analyses and livestock economics studies, and to characterise the role and impact of various natural and anthropic factors in the location and development of the main types of farmers, and their policy implications.

title: Deforestation and Cattle Ranching in the Brazilian Amazon: External Capital and Household Processes
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title: Large-scale impoverishment of Amazonian forests by logging and fire
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title: The effects of structural adjustment on deforestation and forest degradation in lowland Bolivia
abstract: Bolivia's structural adjustment policies, initiated in 1985, increased poverty among certain groups, but this did not lead to widespread migration to the agricultural frontier. Nor did adjustment greatly affect the average area planted in annual crops by small lowland farmers. Structural adjustment contributed to large-scale forest clearing for soybean production for export and, to a lesser extent, forest degradation by lumber companies. The economic benefits generated by soybean and timber expansion may have outweighed the environmental costs, but alternative policies might have reduced those costs and improved the distribution of the benefits.

title: National Forests in the Amazon
abstract: Brazil9s government is currently implementing a policy for sustainable forest production within an expanded system of National Forests (Flonas). By 2010, 50 million hectares of new Flonas will be created. The scale of this initiative is equivalent to the 1908 establishment of the U.S. National Forest system and is unprecedented in the tropics. The resultant mosaic of conservation areas, combining Flonas with fully protected parks and indigenous reservations, will enhance biodiversity conservation and economic stability throughout the Amazon. Establishment of these Flonas will foster development of large-scale sustainable forestry and make Brazil a world leader in conserving natural resources.

title: Extent of nontimber resource extraction in tropical forests: Accessibility to game vertebrates by hunters in the Amazon Basin
abstract: Extractive activities targeting a wide range of nontimber forest products ( NTFPs ) are ubiquitous in tropical forests, yet the extent of structurally intact forests in a given region affected by this form of cryptic disturbance is poorly documented. We conducted a basin-wide geographic information system analysis of the nonmotorized accessibility of Amazonian NTFP extraction and estimated the proportion of the Amazon drainage basin within Brazil ( 3.74 million km 2 ) that can be accessed on foot from the nearest navigable river or functional road. We use a long-term series of standardized line-transect vertebrate censuses conducted throughout the region to illustrate the effects of physical accessibility on wildlife densities in terms of hunting pressure as a function of distance from the nearest point of access. Population abundance in large-bodied, prime-target species preferred by game hunters tended to increase at greater distances from the access matrix, whereas small-bodied species ignored by hunters usually showed the reverse trend. In addition, we estimated the proportion of presumably inviolate core areas within nature, extractive, and indigenous reserves of Brazilian Amazonia that are prohibitively remote and unlikely to be overhunted; for instance, only 1.16% of the basin-wide area is strictly protected on paper and is reasonably safe from extractive activities targeted to game vertebrates and other valuable NTFPs. Finally, we discuss the concept of truly undisturbed wildlands in the last major tropical forest regions by distinguishing potentially overharvested areas from those that remain largely or entirely pristine and that maintain viable populations of a full complement of harvest-sensitive species.

title: Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: Comparing the Impacts of Macroeconomic Shocks, Land Tenure, and Technological Change
abstract: The paper examines the current relevance of the set of variables reported in the literature as driving deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The analysis uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE)model adapted to capture regional economic structures and the environmental processes specific to tropical areas. The paper compares the impact on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon of: changes in real exchange rate; modifications in agricultural tax and support policies; reductions in transportation costs arising from investment in infrastructure in the Amazon; changes in land tenure regimes; and technological change in agriculture affecting productivity and agronomic sustainability.

title: Biodiversity as an environmental service in Brazil's Amazonian forests: risks, value and conservation
abstract: The environmental service provided by the great biodiversity of Amazonian forests is one of several factors leading to the conclusion that much greater efforts are warranted to reduce the destruction of these forests. Risks to biodiversity in Amazonian forests include deforestation, logging, fires, fragmentation, depletion of fauna, invasion by exotic species, and climate change. Financial values assigned to biodiversity depend strongly on the purposes of valuation. Utilitarian benefits include the values of presently-marketed and presently-unexploited forest products, and the monetary value of environmental benefits. Non-monetary values of Amazonian forests are also essential components of decision-making on conservation. Measures of ‘willingness to pay’ and ‘willingness to accept’ can be useful as indicators of potential financial flows, but should not be confused with the true values of the forests to society. Valuation for the purpose of setting penalties for destruction of biodiversity is an important legal question in Brazil and must take into consideration additional factors. Conservation of biodiversity in Brazil includes creation of various types of protected areas. The status of these areas varies greatly, with practice frequently deviating from official requirements. Creating reserves that include human occupants has a variety of pros and cons. Although the effect of humans is not always benign, much larger areas can be brought under protection regimes if human occupants are included. Additional considerations apply to buffer zones around protected areas. The choice and design of reserves depends on the financial costs and biodiversity benefits of different strategies. In Brazil, rapid creation of lightly-protected ‘paper parks’ has been a means of keeping ahead of the advance of barriers to establishment of new conservation units, but emphasis must eventually shift to better protection of existing reserves. Indigenous peoples have the best record of maintaining forest, but negotiation with these peoples is essential in order to ensure maintenance of the large areas of forest they inhabit. The benefits of environmental services provided by the forest must accrue to those who maintain these forests. Development of mechanisms to capture the value of these services will be a key factor affecting the long-term prospects of Amazonian forests. However, many effective measures to discourage deforestation could be taken immediately through government action, including levying and collecting taxes that discourage land speculation, changing land tenure establishment procedures so as not to reward deforestation, revoking remaining incentives, restricting road building and improvement, strengthening requirements for environmental impact statements (RIMAs) for proposed development projects, and creating employment alternatives.

title: Predictors of Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon
abstract: Aim and Location 
 
We assessed the effects of biophysical and anthropogenic predictors on deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia. This region has the world's highest absolute rates of forest destruction and fragmentation. 
 
 
 
Using a GIS, spatial data coverages were developed for deforestation and for three types of potential predictors: (1) human-demographic factors (rural-population density, urban-population size); (2) factors that affect physical accessibility to forests (linear distances to the nearest paved highway, unpaved road and navigable river), and (3) factors that may affect land-use suitability for human occupation and agriculture (annual rainfall, dry-season severity, soil fertility, soil waterlogging, soil depth). To reduce the effects of spatial autocorrelation among variables, the basin was subdivided into >1900 quadrats of 50 × 50 km, and a random subset of 120 quadrats was selected that was stratified on deforestation intensity. A robust ordination analysis (non-metric multidimensional scaling) was then used to identify key orthogonal gradients among the ten original predictor variables. 
 
 
 
Results 
 
The ordination revealed two major environmental gradients in the study area. Axis 1 discriminated among areas with relatively dense human populations and highways, and areas with sparse populations and no highways; whereas axis 2 described a gradient between wet sites having low dry-season severity, many navigable rivers and few roads, and those with opposite values. A multiple regression analysis revealed that both factors were highly significant predictors, collectively explaining nearly 60% of the total variation in deforestation intensity (F2,117=85.46, P < 0.0001). Simple correlations of the original variables were highly concordant with the multiple regression model and suggested that highway density and rural-population size were the most important correlates of deforestation. 
 
 
 
Mainconclusions 
 
These trends suggest that deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is being largely determined by three proximate factors: human population density, highways and dry-season severity, all of which increase deforestation. At least at the spatial scale of this analysis, soil fertility and waterlogging had little influence on deforestation activity, and soil depth was only marginally significant. Our findings suggest that current policy initiatives designed to increase immigration and dramatically expand highway and infrastructure networks in the Brazilian Amazon are likely to have important impacts on deforestation activity. Deforestation will be greatest in relatively seasonal, south-easterly areas of the basin, which are most accessible to major population centres and where large-scale cattle ranching and slash-and-burn farming are most easily implemented.

title: Rainforest Cities: Urbanization, Development, and Globalization of the Brazilian Amazon
abstract: Amazonia has undergone a significant urban transformation since the late 1970s. This is the first comprehensive analysis of urbanization in the Brazilian Amazon. Drawing on comparative household and sectoral survey research, the authors find that the growth of Amazon cities fits no single current theory of urbanization; instead they propose a pluralistic theory of "disarticulated urbanization" to explain the region's varied and volatile settlement patterns.

title: Spatial and temporal patterns of Amazon rainfall. Consequences for the planning of agricultural occupation and the protection of primary forests.
abstract: The spatial and temporal pattern of annual rainfall and the strength of the dry season within the Amazon region are poorly known. Existing rainfall maps are based on the data from full-scale, long-term meteorological stations, operated by national organizations linked to the World Meteorological Organisation, such as INMET in Brazil. Stations with 30 or more years of uninterrupted and reliable recordings are very few, considering the size of the region, and most of them are located along the major rivers. It has been suggested that rainfall conditions away from these rivers are substantially different. An analysis has been made of the records of a network of simple pluviometric sites in the Brazilian part of the region as maintained by the National Agency for Electric Energy (ANEEL) since 1970. The latter data sets were used to draw more detailed maps on annual rainfall, and on the strength of the dry season in particular; average number of consecutive months with less than 100 mm, 50 mm, and 10 mm, respectively. Also, some data were obtained on the spatial expression of El Niño events within the region. Subregional differences are large, and it is argued that they are important for the success or failure of agricultural settlements; for the hazard of large-scale fire damage of the still existing primary forest vegetation; for the functioning of this land cover as stock and sink of CO2, and for the likelihood that secondary forests on abandoned agricultural lands will have less biomass. The effects of past El Niño rainfall anomalies on the biodiversity of the natural savannahs within the forest region are discussed.

title: 
Avança Brasil: Environmental and Social Consequences of Brazil's Planned Infrastructure in Amazonia
abstract: “Avança Brasil” (Forward Brazil) is a package of 338 projects throughout Brazil; the portion of the plan to be carried out in Brazil's Legal Amazon region totals US$43 billion over 8 years, US$20 billion of which would be for infrastructure causing environmental damage. Brazil's environmental impact assessment system is not yet capable of coping with the challenge presented by Avança Brasil. Generic problems with the licensing process include stimulation of a lobby in favor of construction before decisions are made on the advisability of the projects, the “dragging effect” of third parties, whereby economic activity is attracted to the infrastructure but escapes the environmental impact assessment system, a tendency for consulting firms to produce favorable reports, a bureaucratic emphasis on the existence of steps without regard to the content of what is said, and the inability to take account of the chain of events unleashed when a given project is undertaken.The environmental and social costs of forest loss are high; among them is loss of opportunities for sustainable use of the forest, including loss of environmental services such as biodiversity maintenance, water cycling, and carbon storage. The benefits of export infrastructure are meager, especially from the point of view of generating employment. Much of the transportation infrastructure is for soybeans, while the hydroelectric dams contribute to processing aluminum. The example of Avança Brasil makes clear the need to rethink how major development decisions are made and to reconsider a number of the plan's component projects.

title: Is deforestation accelerating in the Brazilian Amazon?
abstract: Recent studies suggest that deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon could increase sharply in the future as a result of over US$ 40 billion in planned investments in highway paving and major new infrastructure projects in the region. These studies have been challenged by several Brazilian ministries, which assert that recent improvements in environmental laws, enforcement and public attitudes have fundamentally reduced the threat posed to forests by such projects. The notion that hazards to Amazonian forests have declined over the last decade was assessed using available data on deforestation rates from 1978 to 2000. Although the alarmingly high rate of forest loss during 1978–1989 (1.98 million ha yr−1) declined somewhat in 1990–1994 (1.38 million ha yr−1), it rebounded to a high level in the period 1995–2000 (1.90 million ha yr−1). Moreover, correlation and regression analyses reveal that both absolute and per caput rates of forest loss accelerated significantly over the last decade. These trends fail to support the assertion that deforestation pressure in Amazonian forests has been brought under control. Poor enforcement of existing environmental laws, rapidly expanding logging and mining industries, increasing population pressure and other challenges are greatly hindering efforts to limit the environmental impacts of development activities in Brazilian Amazonia.

title: Development of the Brazilian Amazon
abstract: In their discussion of “the future of the Brazilian Amazon” ( Science 's Compass, Policy Forum, 19 Jan., p. [438][1]), W. F. Laurance and his co-authors offer a serious contribution to a very serious subject. Nevertheless, we reject their projections of extensive deforestation in the Brazilian

title: Conservation Policy in Brazilian Amazonia: Understanding the Dilemmas
abstract: Conservation policy in Brazilian Amazonia is rapidly evolving. The dynamics of different interest groups affect the political economy of land use. Choices include allocation of effort between completely and partially protected areas and between creation of new conservation units versus consolidation of existing units. Tensions between different levels of government, different groups of nongovernmental organizations, and between the public versus private sectors are evident. While the conflicting interests of such groups present many barriers, they also offer conservation opportunities. Negotiation with indigenous peoples represents one of the most critical areas for the long-term future of natural ecosystems in the region.

title: Forests and global warming mitigation in Brazil: opportunities in the Brazilian forest sector for responses to global warming under the ''clean development mechanism''
abstract: The Kyoto Protocol created global warming response opportunities through the clean development mechanism that allow countries like Brazil to receive investments from companies and governments wishing to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases. Brazil has a special place in strategies for combating global warming because its vast areas of tropical forest represent a potentially large source of emissions if deforested. A number of issues need to be settled to properly assign credit for carbon in the types of options presented by the Brazilian forest sector. These include definition of the units of carbon (permanent sequestration versus carbon-ton-years, the latter being most appropriate for forest options), the means of crediting forest reserve establishment, adoption of discounting or other time-preference weighting for carbon, definition of the accounting method (avoided emissions versus stock maintenance), and mechanisms to allow program contributions to be counted, rather than restricting consideration to free-standing projects. Silvicultural plantations offer opportunities for carbon benefits, but these depend heavily on the end use of the products. Plantations for charcoal have the greatest carbon benefits, but have high social impacts in the Brazilian context. Plantations also inherently compete with deforestation reduction options for funds. Forest management has been proposed as a global warming response option, but the assignment of any value to time makes this unattractive in terms of carbon benefits. However, reduced-impact logging can substantially reduce emissions over those from traditional logging practices. Slowing deforestation is the major opportunity offered by Brazil. Slowing deforestation will require understanding its causes and creating functional models capable of generating land-use change scenarios with and without different policy changes and other activities. Brazil already has a number of programs designed to slow deforestation, but the continued rapid loss of forest highlights the vast gulf that exists between the magnitude of the problem and the efforts to address it. The ups and downs of Brazil’s deforestation rate have so far had little to do with deliberate programs to control or influence the process. Achieving this control will require a major effort in which contributions from the private sector will be needed. Mechanisms are needed to make contributions to such programs eligible for carbon credit.

title: NET CARBON FLUXES FROM FOREST CLEARANCE AND REGROWTH IN THE AMAZON
abstract: Estimates of net carbon exchange resulting from forest clearance and re- growth were made for three areas in the Brazilian and Bolivian Amazon. The study areas, ranging in size from 600 to 10 000 km 2 , include communities that practice a range of land uses from small-scale, rotational agriculture to long-term pasture. Carbon emissions from deforestation were estimated based on rates of deforestation derived from Landsat satellite data and published estimates of mature forest biomass. Estimates of carbon uptake by secondary forest regrowth were based on area estimates from the satellite data and biomass estimates from field surveys. Estimates of carbon emissions from the clearance of secondary forest were included. The total carbon emissions were partitioned into that immediately released by biomass burning during clearance and that from subsequent decomposition and burning of felled biomass. A range of net carbon fluxes from secondary forest regrowth and clearance was estimated by extrapolating land-use patterns in each study area to the entire area of deforested landscape in Amazonian Brazil and Bolivia, and by varying average biomass accumulation rate of regrowing forest and fallow period. Over 60 km 2 of forest were cleared from 1988 to 1995 in each of the Brazilian study areas, and over 940 km 2 were cleared from 1986 to 1996 in the Bolivian study area. This resulted in 30-200 Mg C/yr emitted from biomass burning during deforestation. If the carbon that is committed to subsequent burning and decomposition of felled biomass is included, total committed emissions of 75-650 Mg C/yr resulted from deforestation in each study area. The carbon uptake by secondary forests was 33-435 Mg C/yr. However, emis- sions from the reclearance of secondary forests were nearly as large: 17-365 Mg C/yr. Extrapolation of these results to the Brazilian and Bolivian Amazon suggests that, at the national level, carbon uptake by secondary forests offset less than one-fifth of the carbon emissions from deforestation. Despite differences in land-use pattern, average fallow period, and rate of biomass accumulation used in the extrapolation, net carbon uptake by secondary forests was consistently small when compared to the total emissions from deforestation.

title: The faint promise of a distant market: a survey of Belém's trade in non-timber forest products
abstract: Increased trade in non-timber forest products (NTFPs) has been promoted as one possible means to slow tropical deforestation by increasing the economic value of intact forest. A market survey of NTFPs occurring in the Capim River basin in eastern Amazonia, Brazil demonstrated that the reality for many smallholder communities in frontier and remote regions includes chronic transportation difficulties, high variability in fruit production, perishable products and lack of market expertise. In some communities, declining abundance of NTFPs due to logging and fire has resulted in a lack of forest products to even meet subsistence needs. In areas close to cities where transportation is assured and where forest clearing has eroded the natural occurrence of some valuable native NTFPs, smallholders who manage and successfully market native fruit and medicinal species are overcoming these obstacles. In frontier regions undergoing rapid transformation, however, decline in locally used and regionally marketed NTFPs currently pose detrimental consequences for communities. Findings suggest that an overemphasis on NTFP marketing has diverted attention from local livelihood, resource access and subsistence issues.

title: Experiments in Forest-Based Development in Western Amazonia
abstract: The state government of Acre, Brazil, has integrated ecological, cultural, social, and economic forest values into a comprehensive forest policy to manage Acre's abundance of comparatively pristine forests, while couching specific goals and the processes for achieving them within a broader sustainable development framework. Inspired by the rubber tapper culture and social movement, policy implementation has been advanced with broad support from national and international allies. While these experiments in forest-based development serve as a hopeful alternative to the steady deforestation observed in Amazonia, many long-term ecological, economic, cultural, and political challenges remain for sustaining and adapting these policy initiatives.