Impact of hazard-consistent ground motion duration in structural collapse risk assessment

This study evaluates the effect of considering ground motion duration when selecting hazard-consistent ground motions for structural collapse risk assessment. A procedure to compute source-specific probability distributions of the durations of ground motions anticipated at a site, based on the generalized conditional intensity measure framework, is developed. Targets are computed for three sites in Western USA, located in distinct tectonic settings: Seattle, Eugene, and San Francisco. The effect of considering duration when estimating the collapse risk of a ductile reinforced concrete moment frame building, designed for a site in Seattle, is quantified by conducting multiple stripe analyses using groups of ground motions selected using different procedures. The mean annual frequency of collapse (λcollapse) in Seattle is found to be underestimated by 29% when using typical-duration ground motions from the PEER NGA-West2 database. The effect of duration is even more important in sites like Eugene (λcollapse underestimated by 59%), where the seismic hazard is dominated by large magnitude interface earthquakes, and less important in sites like San Francisco (λcollapse underestimated by 7%), where the seismic hazard is dominated by crustal earthquakes. Ground motion selection procedures that employ causal parameters like magnitude, distance, and Vs30 as surrogates for ground motion duration are also evaluated. These procedures are found to produce poor fits to the duration and response spectrum targets because of the limited number of records that satisfy typical constraints imposed on the ranges of the causal parameters. As a consequence, ground motions selected based on causal parameters are found to overestimate λcollapse by 53%.

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title: Quantifying the Influence of Ground Motion Duration on Structural Collapse Capacity Using Spectrally Equivalent Records
abstract: This study examines the influence of ground motion duration on the collapse capacities of a modern five-story steel moment frame and a reinforced concrete bridge pier. The effect of duration is isolated from the effects of ground motion amplitude and response spectral shape by assembling sets of “spectrally equivalent” long and short duration records and employing them in comparative nonlinear dynamic analyses. For the modern steel moment frame, the estimated median collapse capacity is 29% lower when using the long duration set, as compared to the short duration set. For the concrete bridge pier, the collapse capacity is 17% lower. A comparison of commonly used duration metrics indicates that significant duration is the most suitable metric to characterize ground motion duration for structural analysis. Sensitivity analyses to structural model parameters indicate that structures with high deformation capacities and rapid rates of cyclic deterioration are the most sensitive to duration.

title: Effect of ground motion duration on earthquake-induced structural collapse
abstract: Although the influence of ground motion duration on liquefaction and slope stability is widely acknowledged, its influence on structural response is a topic of some debate. This study examines the effect of ground motion duration on the collapse of reinforced concrete structures by conducting incremental dynamic analysis on nonlinear multiple-degree-of-freedom models of concrete frame buildings with different structural properties. Generalized linear modeling regression techniques are used to predict the collapse capacity of a structure, and the duration of the ground motion is found to be a significant predictor of collapse resistance. As a result, the collapse risk of the analyzed buildings is higher on being subjected to longer duration ground motions, as compared to shorter duration ground motions having the same ground motion intensity. Ground motion duration affects the collapse capacity of highly deteriorating (non-ductile) and less deteriorating (ductile) concrete structures. Therefore, it is recommended to consider the duration of the ground motion in addition to its intensity and frequency content in structural design and assessment of seismic risk.

title: The Influence of Strong-Motion Duration on the Seismic Response of Masonry Structures
abstract: The influence of strong-motion duration on the response of saturated soils is clearly recognised and accounted for in the assessment of liquefaction potential. The degree to which duration of shaking influences damage to structures, however, remains a topic of debate, with resolution of the issue complicated by the variety of definitions of duration and the variety of structural behaviours, as well as the difficulty of decoupling the specific effect of duration from other features of the ground motion. A suite of seven structural models with strength and stiffness degrading characteristics, designed to reflect the seismic behaviour of masonry structures commonly encountered in many parts of Europe, are analysed using a suite of almost 500 strong-motion accelerograms. Correlations are explored between the damage, measured in terms of the strength degradation, and a range of strong-motion parameters, demonstrating that Arias intensity and spectral acceleration at the fundamental initial period of the structure are both reasonably good damage indicators for such structures. A significantly improved correlation is obtained by using the elastic spectral accelerations averaged over a period range from the initial period of the structure to a value approximately three times greater, reflecting the stiffness degradation as the shaking progresses. The scatter in the correlation is shown to be partially explained by differences in duration.

title: A State-of-Knowledge Review of the Influence of Strong-Motion Duration on Structural Damage
abstract: The important role played by the duration of ground shaking in the response of saturated soil deposits is universally acknowledged, but no such consensus exists regarding the degree of influence that duration exerts on structural damage. There are several hundred papers in the literature that link structural damage to parameters related either directly or indirectly to the duration of strong ground motion. The conclusions of these studies differ widely with regard to the influence of strong-motion duration on structural demand. This paper provides a summary and critical review of the literature on this subject. It is found that studies employing damage measures related to cumulative energy usually find a positive correlation between strong-motion duration and structural damage, while studies employing damage measures using maximum response generally do not find strong correlations between duration and damage.

title: Ground motion duration effects on nonlinear seismic response
abstract: The study presented in this paper addresses the question of which nonlinear demand measures are sensitive to ground motion duration by statistical analyses of several case studies. A number of single degree of freedom (SDOF) structures were selected considering: (1) four oscillation periods; (2) three evolutionary and non-evolutionary hysteretic behaviours; (3) two target ductility levels. 
 
Effects of duration are investigated, by nonlinear dynamic analysis, with respect to six different demand indices ranging from displacement ductility ratio to equivalent number of cycles. Input is made of six real accelerogram sets representing three specific duration scenarios (small, moderate and large duration). For all considered demand quantities time-history results are formally compared by statistical hypothesis test to asses the difference, if any, in the demand concerning different scenarios. Incremental dynamic analysis curves are used to evaluate duration effect as function of ground motion intensity (e.g. spectral acceleration corresponding to the SDOF's oscillation period). Duration impact on structural failure probability is evaluated by fragility curves. 
 
The results lead to the conclusion that duration content of ground motion is statistically insignificant to displacement ductility and cyclic ductility demand. The conclusions hold regardless of SDOF's period and hysteretic relationship investigated.

title: Using spectral matched records to explore the influence of strong-motion duration on inelastic structural response
abstract: There is considerable debate in the technical literature regarding the influence of the duration of earthquake strong motion on structural damage. If duration is an important consideration, care must be taken to use ground motions with appropriate duration in engineering design and assessment. This study analyses an 8-storey RC wall-frame building under the action of 30 accelerograms with different durations. The primary influence of the response spectral amplitude is homogenized by scaling and adjusting the accelerograms using wavelets so that they have a good match to the same smooth response spectra. Comparison of the correlation between the duration of the ground motion and different damage measures reveals that duration has no influence on damage measures using the peak response, such as inter-storey drift, but is correlated to cumulative damage measures, such as absorbed hysteretic energy and fatigue damage.

title: Hazard-consistent earthquake scenarios
abstract: Earthquake-resistant design and seismic analysis often require the earthquake action to be represented in the form of acceleration time-histories. Real accelerograms can be selected based on matching an earthquake scenario, defined by magnitude and distance, and scaled if necessary. The scaled accelerograms should reflect the hazard in terms of the parameters that characterise the inelastic demand on structures, including response spectral ordinates, duration and energy content. In order to maintain realistic ground motions, the scaling factors should not differ greatly from unity. It is found that in many cases, where the hazard is influenced by more than one seismic source, it is impossible to define a single earthquake scenario that is compatible with the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Even if a hazard-consistent scenario can be defined, there are difficulties encountered in using the results to select and scale real accelerograms.

title: THE USE OF REAL EARTHQUAKE ACCELEROGRAMS AS INPUT TO DYNAMIC ANALYSIS
abstract: The increasing availability of strong-motion accelerograms, and the relative ease with which they can be obtained compared to synthetic or artificial records, makes the use of real records an ever more attractive option for defining the input to dynamic analyses in geotechnical and structural engineering. Guidelines on procedures for the selection of appropriate suites of acceleration time-series for this purpose are lacking, and seismic design codes are particularly poor in this respect. Criteria for selecting records in terms of earthquake scenarios and in terms of response spectral ordinates are presented, together with options and criteria for adjusting the selected accelerograms to match the elastic design spectrum. The application of both geophysical and response spectral search criteria is illustrated using compatible scenarios, and the selected records are analysed and adjusted to produce suites of acceleration time-series suitable for dynamic analyses. The paper concludes with suggestions for making use of real records in engineering analysis and design, and recommendations are given for improving the current guidelines provided in seismic design codes.

title: Selection of earthquake ground motion records: A state-of-the-art review from a structural engineering perspective
abstract: This paper reviews alternative selection procedures based on established methods for incorporating strong ground motion records within the framework of seismic design of structures. Given the fact that time history signals recorded at a given site constitute a random process which is practically impossible to reproduce, considerable effort has been expended in recent years on processing actual records so as to become ‘representative’ of future input histories to existing as well as planned construction in earthquake-prone regions. Moreover, considerable effort has been expended to ensure that dispersion in the structural response due to usage of different earthquake records is minimized. Along these lines, the aim of this paper is to present the most recent methods developed for selecting an ‘appropriate’ set of records that can be used for dynamic analysis of structural systems in the context of performance-based design. A comparative evaluation of the various alternatives available indicates that the current seismic code framework is rather simplified compared to what has actually been observed, thus highlighting both the uncertainties and challenges related to the selection of earthquake records.

title: Earthquakes, Records, and Nonlinear Responses
abstract: The estimation of MDOF nonlinear structural response given an earth-quake of magnitude M at distance R is studied with respect to issues such as the benefits and harms of (1) first scaling the records, (2) selecting records from the “wrong” magnitude, (3) alternative choices for how to scale the records, and (4) scaling records to a significantly higher or lower intensity, etc. We find that properly chosen scaling can reduce the necessity of the number of nonlinear analyses by a factor of about four, and that proper scaling does not introduce any bias. Several global and local nonlinear damage measures are considered. A five-DOF model of a steel structure is used; other cases are under study. The paper finishes with a demonstration of the use of such results in the estimation of the annual probability of exceeding a specified interstory ductility (drift) or other damage measures.

title: Vector-valued ground motion intensity measures for probabilistic seismic demand analysis
abstract: ................................................................................................................................. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................................................................... iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ..............................................................................................................v LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................... xiii LIST OF TABLES .....................................................................................................................xxv

title: Conditional Mean Spectrum: Tool for Ground-Motion Selection
abstract: A common goal of dynamic structural analysis is to predict the response of a structure subjected to ground motions having a specified spectral acceleration at a given period. This is important, for example, when coupling ground motion hazard curves from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with results from dynamic structural analysis. The prediction is often obtained by selecting ground motions that match a target response spectrum, and using those ground motions as input to dynamic analysis. The commonly used Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS) is shown here to be an unsuitable target for this purpose, as it conservatively implies that large-amplitude spectral values will occur at all periods within a single ground motion. An alternative, termed a Conditional Mean Spectrum (CMS), is presented here. The CMS provides the expected (i.e., mean) response spectrum, conditioned on occurrence of a target spectral acceleration value at the period of interest. It is argued that this is the appropriate target response spectrum for the goal described above, and is thus a useful tool for selecting ground motions as input to dynamic analysis. The Conditional Mean Spectrum is described, its advantages relative to the UHS are explained, and practical guidelines for use in ground motion selection are presented. Recent work illustrating the impact of this change in target spectrum on resulting structural response is briefly summarized.

title: A Computationally Efficient Ground-Motion Selection Algorithm for Matching a Target Response Spectrum Mean and Variance
abstract: Dynamic structural analysis often requires the selection of input ground motions with a target mean response spectrum. The variance of the target response spectrum is usually ignored or accounted for in an ad hoc manner, which can bias the structural response estimates. This manuscript proposes a computationally efficient and theoretically consistent algorithm to select ground motions that match the target response spectrum mean and variance. The selection algorithm probabilistically generates multiple response spectra from a target distribution, and then selects recorded ground motions whose response spectra individually match the simulated response spectra. A greedy optimization technique further improves the match between the target and the sample means and variances. The proposed algorithm is used to select ground motions for the analysis of sample structures in order to assess the impact of considering ground-motion variance on the structural response estimates. The implications for code-based design and performance-based earthquake engineering are discussed.

title: Earthquake Accelerogram Selection and Scaling Procedures for Estimating the Distribution of Drift Response
abstract: The problem of selecting a suite of earthquake accelerograms for time-domain analyses is of particular practical and academic interest. Research in this field has led to numerous approaches for compiling suites of accelerograms that may be used to robustly estimate the median structural response. However, many applications in earthquake engineering require the estimation of the full distribution of a structural response parameter for a particular predefined scenario. This article presents an efficient procedure whereby the distributions of interstory or roof drifts may be well approximated. The procedure makes use of three-point approximations to continuous distributions and the strong correlation that exists between the spectral acceleration at the initial fundamental period of the structure and the drift response. The distributions obtained under the proposed approach are compared with a reference distribution assumed to represent the true underlying distribution of drift response. The reference distrib...

title: Conditional Hazard Maps for Secondary Intensity Measures
abstract: Vector-valued ground-motion intensity measures (IMs) have been the focus of a significant deal of research recently. Proposed measures are mainly functions of spectral ordinates, which have been shown to be useful in the assessment of structural response. This is especially appropriate in the case of structures following modern earthquake-resistant design principles, in which structural damage is mainly caused by peak displacements experienced during nonlinear dynamics. On the other hand, there may be cases in which the cumulative damage potential of the earthquake is also of concern, even if it is generally believed that integral ground-motion IMs, associated with duration, are less important with respect to peak parameters of the record. For these IMs, it seems appropriate to develop conditional hazard maps, that is, maps of percentiles of a secondary IM (e.g., duration-related) given the occurrence or exceedance of a primary parameter (e.g., peak acceleration), for which a design hazard map is often already available. In this paper, this concept is illustrated, and conditional hazard is developed for a parameter, which may account for the cumulative damage potential of ground motion, the so-called Cosenza and Manfredi index ( I D ), given peak ground acceleration (PGA). To this aim, a ground-motion prediction relationship was derived for I D first. Subsequently, the residuals of PGA and I D were tested for correlation and for joint normality. Finally, the study obtained analytical distributions of I D conditional on PGA and on the corresponding design earthquake in terms of magnitude and distance from hazard disaggregation. As shown by the application to the Campania region (southern Italy), I D maps conditional on the code design values of PGA may be useful, for example, for a more refined ground-motion record selection as an input for nonlinear dynamic analysis of structures.

title: A generalized conditional intensity measure approach and holistic ground motion selection
abstract: A generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach is proposed for use in the holistic selection of ground motions for any form of seismic response analysis. The essence of the method is the construction of the multivariate distribution of any set of ground-motion intensity measures conditioned on the occurrence of a specific ground-motion intensity measure (commonly obtained from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis). The approach therefore allows any number of ground-motion intensity measures identified as important in a particular seismic response problem to be considered. A holistic method of ground-motion selection is also proposed based on the statistical comparison, for each intensity measure, of the empirical distribution of the ground-motion suite with the ‘target’ GCIM distribution. A simple procedure to estimate the magnitude of potential bias in the results of seismic response analyses when the ground-motion suite does not conform to the GCIM distribution is also demonstrated. The combination of these three features of the approach make it entirely holistic in that: any level of complexity in ground-motion selection for any seismic response analysis can be exercised; users explicitly understand the simplifications made in the selected suite of ground motions; and an approximate estimate of any bias associated with such simplifications is obtained.

title: Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and design earthquakes: Closing the loop
abstract: Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is conducted because there is a perceived earthquake threat: active seismic sources in the region may produce a moderate-to-large earthquake. The analysis considers a multitude of earthquake occurrences and ground motions, and produces an integrated description of seismic hazard representing all events. For design, analysis, retrofit, or other seismic risk decisions a single “design earthquake” is often desired wherein the earthquake threat is characterized by a single magnitude, distance, and perhaps other parameters. This allows additional characteristics of the ground shaking to be modeled, such as duration, nonstationarity of motion, and critical pulses. This study describes a method wherein a design earthquake can be obtained that accurately represents the uniform hazard spectrum from a PSHA. There are two key steps in the derivation. First, the contribution to hazard by magnitude M , distance R , and ɛ must be maintained separately for each attenuation equation used in the analysis. Here, ɛ is the number of standard deviations that the target ground motion is above or below the median predicted motion for that equation. Second, the hazard for two natural frequencies (herein taken to be 10 and 1 Hz) must be examined by seismic source to see if one source dominates the hazard at both frequencies. This allows us to determine whether it is reasonable to represent the hazard with a single design earthquake, and if so to select the most-likely combination of M, R , and ɛ (herein called the “beta earthquake”) to accurately replicate the uniform hazard spectrum. This closes the loop between the original perception of the earthquake threat, the consideration of all possible seismic events that might contribute to that threat, and the representation of the threat with a single (or few) set of parameters for design or analysis.

title: Prediction Equations for Significant Duration of Earthquake Ground Motions considering Site and Near-Source Effects
abstract: For engineering systems having a potential for degradation under cyclic loading (e.g., landslides, soil profiles subject to liquefaction, some structural systems), the characterization of seismic demand should include the amplitude and duration of strong shaking within the system. This article is concerned with significant-duration parameters, which are defined as the time interval across which a specified amount of energy is dissipated (as measured by the integral of the square of the ground acceleration or velocity). We develop ground-motion prediction equations for significant-duration parameters as a function of magnitude, closest site-source distance, site parameters that reflect shallow geologic conditions as well as deep basin structure, and near-source parameters. The relations are developed using a modern database and a random-effects regression procedure. We find significant duration to increase with magnitude and site-source distance (effects that had been identified previously), but also to decrease with increasing shear-wave velocity of near-surface sediments and to increase with increasing basin depth. Parameters that principally measure the duration of body waves were also found to decrease in near-fault areas subject to forward rupture directivity, although such effects were not apparent for other duration parameters that tend to reflect the combined duration of body and surface waves.

title: Empirical Equations for the Prediction of the Significant, Bracketed, and Uniform Duration of Earthquake Ground Motion
abstract: The complete characterization of earthquake ground motion includes the length of the interval of strong shaking as well as the amplitude and frequency content of the time series. There are relatively few published equations available for the prediction of strong-motion duration from earthquakes, which may in part be a consequence of the fact that the duration of shaking has generally not been considered in structural engineering. Recognizing that there are many applications for which an estimate of the duration of ground motion is needed, this study presents new empirical predictive equations for a number of definitions of strong-motion duration using the records from the Next Generation of Attenuation (NGA) global database of accelerograms from shallow crustal earthquakes. The equations can be used to estimate ground-motion durations from shallow crustal earthquakes of magnitude between M w  4.8 and 7.9 at distances up to 100 km from the source.

title: Correlation of Significant Duration with Amplitude and Cumulative Intensity Measures and Its Use in Ground Motion Selection
abstract: This manuscript examines, and develops parametric equations for, the correlation of significant duration with several amplitude- and cumulative-based ground motion intensity measures. The correlations are determined using ground motions from active shallow crustal earthquakes in the Next Generation Attenuation database, and recently developed ground motion prediction equations. It is found that significant durations tend to be negatively correlated with high-frequency amplitude-based intensity measures, weakly negatively correlated with moderate-frequency amplitude-based intensity measures, and weakly positively correlated with low-frequency amplitude-based intensity measures and cumulative absolute velocity. Particular attenuation is given to the physical interpretation of the observed correlations, which can largely be explained as a result of: (a) the 5–75% significant duration ( ) representing approximately the duration of body wave arrivals; and (b) the limited amount of energy contained in a ground motion time history. Finally, the practical application of the developed correlation equations in determining conditional distributions of ground motion duration for use in ground motion selection is demonstrated.

title: Conditional spectrum-based ground motion selection. Part I: Hazard consistency for risk-based assessments
abstract: The conditional spectrum (CS, with mean and variability) is a target response spectrum that links nonlinear dynamic analysis back to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for ground motion selection. The CS is computed on the basis of a specified conditioning period, whereas structures under consideration may be sensitive to response spectral amplitudes at multiple periods of excitation. Questions remain regarding the appropriate choice of conditioning period when utilizing the CS as the target spectrum. This paper focuses on risk-based assessments, which estimate the annual rate of exceeding a specified structural response amplitude. Seismic hazard analysis, ground motion selection, and nonlinear dynamic analysis are performed, using the conditional spectra with varying conditioning periods, to assess the performance of a 20-story reinforced concrete frame structure. It is shown here that risk-based assessments are relatively insensitive to the choice of conditioning period when the ground motions are carefully selected to ensure hazard consistency. This observed insensitivity to the conditioning period comes from the fact that, when CS-based ground motion selection is used, the distributions of response spectra of the selected ground motions are consistent with the site ground motion hazard curves at all relevant periods; this consistency with the site hazard curves is independent of the conditioning period. The importance of an exact CS (which incorporates multiple causal earthquakes and ground motion prediction models) to achieve the appropriate spectral variability at periods away from the conditioning period is also highlighted. The findings of this paper are expected theoretically but have not been empirically demonstrated previously.

title: A STUDY ON THE DURATION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE GROUND MOTION
abstract: A simple definition of the duration of strong earthquake ground motion based on the mean-square integral of motion has been presented. It is closely related to that part of the strong motion which contributes significantly to the seismic energy as recorded at a point and to the related spectral amplitudes. Correlations have been established between the duration of strong-motion acceleration, velocity, and displacement and Modified Mercalli intensity, earthquake magnitude, the type of recording site geology, and epicentral distance. Simple relations have been presented that predict the average trend of the duration and other related parameters as a function of Modified Mercalli intensity, earthquake magnitude, site geology and epicentral distance.

title: Conditional Spectrum Computation Incorporating Multiple Causal Earthquakes and Ground-Motion Prediction Models
abstract: The conditional spectrum (CS) is a target spectrum (with conditional mean and conditional standard deviation) that links seismic hazard information with ground-motion selection for nonlinear dynamic analysis. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) estimates the ground-motion hazard by incorporating the aleatory uncertainties in all earthquake scenarios and resulting ground motions, as well as the epistemic uncertainties in ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) and seismic source models. Typical CS calculations to date are produced for a single earthquake scenario using a single GMPM, but more precise use requires consideration of at least multiple causal earthquakes and multiple GMPMs that are often considered in a PSHA computation. This paper presents the mathematics underlying these more precise CS calculations. Despite requiring more effort to compute than approximate calculations using a single causal earthquake and GMPM, the proposed approach produces an exact output that has a theoretical basis. To demonstrate the results of this approach and compare the exact and approximate calculations, several example calculations are per- formed for real sites in the western United States. The results also provide some in- sights regarding the circumstances under which approximate results are likely to closely match more exact results. To facilitate these more precise calculations for real applications, the exact CS calculations can now be performed for real sites in the United States using new deaggregation features in the U.S. Geological Survey hazard mapping tools. Details regarding this implementation are discussed in this paper.

title: A ground motion selection algorithm based on the generalized conditional intensity measure approach
abstract: An algorithm is presented for the selection of ground motions for use in seismic response analysis. The algorithm is based on the use of random realizations from the conditional multivariate distribution of ground motion intensity measures, IM|IMj, obtained from the generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach. The algorithm can be applied to the selection of both as-recorded amplitude-scaled and synthetic/simulated ground motions. A key feature is that the generality of the GCIM methodology allows for ground motion selection based on only explicit measures of the ground motions themselves, as represented by the various IM’s considered, rather than implicit causal parameters (e.g., source magnitude, source-to-site distance) which are presently used in other contemporary ground motion selection procedures. Several examples are used to illustrate the salient features of the algorithm, including: the effect of intensity measures considered; and the properties of ground motions selected for multiple exceedance probabilities. The flexibility of the proposed algorithm coupled with the GCIM methodology allows for objective and consistent ground motion selection as a natural extension of seismic hazard analysis.

title: 2014 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps
abstract: The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps are revised every six years, corresponding with the update cycle of the International Building Code. These maps cover the conterminous U.S. and will be updated in 2014 using the best-available science that is obtained from colleagues at regional and topical workshops, which are convened in 2012-2013. Maps for Alaska and Hawaii will be updated shortly following this update. Alternative seismic hazard models discussed at the workshops will be implemented in a logic tree framework and will be used to develop the seismic hazard maps and associated products. In this paper we describe the plan to update the hazard maps, the issues raised in workshops up to March 2012, and topics that will be discussed at future workshops. An advisory panel will guide the development of the hazard maps and ensure that the maps are acceptable to a broad segment of the science and engineering communities. These updated maps will then be considered by endusers for inclusion in building codes, risk models, and public policy documents.

title: NGA-West2 Ground Motion Model for the Average Horizontal Components of PGA, PGV, and 5% Damped Linear Acceleration Response Spectra
abstract: We used an expanded PEER NGA-West2 database to develop a new ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for the average horizontal components of PGA, PGV, and 5% damped linear pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra at 21 periods ranging from 0.01 s to 10 s. In addition to those terms included in our now superseded 2008 GMPE, we include a more-detailed hanging wall model, scaling with hypocentral depth and fault dip, regionally independent geometric attenuation, regionally dependent anelastic attenuation and site conditions, and magnitude-dependent aleatory variability. The NGA-West2 database provides better constraints on magnitude scaling and attenuation of small-magnitude earthquakes, where our 2008 GMPE was known to be biased. We consider our new GMPE to be valid for estimating horizontal ground motion from shallow crustal continental earthquakes in an active tectonic domain for rupture distances ranging from 0 km to 300 km and magnitudes ranging from 3.3 to 7.5–8.5, depending on source mechanism.

title: Correlation of Spectral Acceleration Values from NGA Ground Motion Models
abstract: Ground motion models (or “attenuation relationships”) describe the probability distribution of spectral acceleration at an individual period, given a set of predictor variables such as magnitude and distance, but they do not address the correlations between spectral acceleration values at multiple periods or orientations. Those correlations are needed for several calculations related to seismic hazard analysis and ground motion selection. Four NGA models and the NGA ground motion database are used here to measure these correlations, and predictive equations are fit to the results. The equations are valid for periods from 0.01 seconds to 10 seconds, versus similar previous equations that were valid only between 0.05 and 5 seconds and produced unreasonable results if extrapolated. Use of the new NGA ground motion database also facilitates a first study of correlations from intra- and inter-event residuals. Observed correlations are not sensitive to the choice of accompanying ground motion model, and intra-event, inter-event, and total residuals all exhibit similar correlation structure. A single equation is thus applicable for a variety of correlation predictions. A simple example illustrates the use of the proposed equations for one hazard analysis application.

title: Seismic performance of wood‐frame houses in south‐western British Columbia
abstract: The seismic performance of conventional wood-frame structures in south-western British Columbia is analytically investigated through incremental dynamic analysis by utilizing available UBC-SAWS models, which were calibrated based on experimental test results. To define an adequate target response spectrum that is consistent with information from national seismic hazard maps, record selection/scaling based on the conditional mean spectrum (CMS) is implemented. Furthermore, to reflect complex seismic hazard contributions from different earthquake sources (i.e. crustal events, interface events, and inslab events), we construct CMS for three earthquake types, and use them to select and scale an adequate set of ground motion records for the seismic performance evaluation. We focus on the impacts of adopting different record selection criteria and of using different shear-wall types (Houses 1–4; in terms of seismic resistance, House 1>House 2>House 3>House 4) on the nonlinear structural response. The results indicate that the record selection procedures have significant influence on the probabilistic relationship between spectral acceleration at the fundamental vibration period and maximum inter-story drift ratio, highlighting the importance of taking into account response spectral shapes in selecting and scaling ground motion records. Subjected to ground motions corresponding to the return period of 2500 years, House 1 is expected to experience very limited extent of damage; Houses 2 and 3 may be disturbed by minor damage; whereas House 4 may suffer from major damage occasionally. Finally, we develop statistical models of the maximum inter-story drift ratio conditioned on a seismic intensity level for wood-frame houses, which is useful for seismic vulnerability assessment.

title: Collapse Risk of Buildings in the Pacific Northwest Region due to Subduction Earthquakes
abstract: Subduction earthquakes similar to the 2011 Japan and 2010 Chile events will occur in the future in the Cascadia subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest. In this paper, nonlinear dynamic analyses are carried out on 24 buildings designed according to outdated and modern building codes for the cities of Seattle, Washington, and Portland, Oregon. The results indicate that the median collapse capacity of the ductile (post-1970) buildings is approximately 40% less when subjected to ground motions from subduction, as compared to crustal earthquakes. Buildings are more susceptible to earthquake-induced collapse when shaken by subduction records (as compared to crustal records of the same intensity) because the subduction motions tend to be longer in duration due to their larger magnitude and the greater source-to-site distance. As a result, subduction earthquakes are shown to contribute to the majority of the collapse risk of the buildings analyzed.

title: HYSTERETIC MODELS THAT INCORPORATE STRENGTH AND STIFFNESS DETERIORATION
abstract: This paper presents the description, calibration and application of relatively simple hysteretic models that include strength and stiffness deterioration properties, features that are critical for demand predictions as a structural system approaches collapse. Three of the basic hysteretic models used in seismic demand evaluation are modified to include deterioration properties: bilinear, peak-oriented, and pinching. The modified models include most of the sources of deterioration: i.e. various modes of cyclic deterioration and softening of the post-yielding stiffness, and also account for a residual strength after deterioration. The models incorporate an energy-based deterioration parameter that controls four cyclic deterioration modes: basic strength, post-capping strength, unloading stiffness, and accelerated reloading stiffness deterioration. Calibration of the hysteretic models on steel, plywood, and reinforced-concrete components demonstrates that the proposed models are capable of simulating the main characteristics that influence deterioration. An application of a peak-oriented deterioration model in the seismic evaluation of single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems is illustrated. The advantages of using deteriorating hysteretic models for obtaining the response of highly inelastic systems are discussed.