Prognostic value of disability on mortality: 15-year follow-up of the Bambuí cohort study of aging.

Disability is a concern in the context of population ageing. The extent of an individual's disability is a major determinant of whether or not they require long-term care or survival time. We investigated the effect of three disability domains as predictors of all-cause mortality over 15-year follow-up in a Brazilian socioeconomically disadvantaged and multiracial older adult population.



We estimated Cox proportional hazards models using data from 1333 community-dwelling individuals aged 60 and older from the Bambuí Cohort Study of Ageing. Disability was defined as a great difficulty or not being able to perform one and two or more activities in each domain: mobility, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and basic activities of daily living (BADL).



The overall mortality rate was 46.1 per 1000 person-years at risk (pyrs) and it was higher in men. Among men, the fully adjusted Hazard Ratios (HRs) were 1.92 (95%CI: 1.43-2.58), 2.07 (95%CI: 1.53-2.79) and 1.65 (95%CI: 1.11-2.45), and among women 1.75 (95%CI: 1.38-2.21), 1.43 (95%CI: 1.11-1.84) and 1.43 (95%CI: 1.05-1.95), for two or more disability in mobility tasks, IADLs and BADLs, respectively, compared to those with no difficulty or some difficulty to perform all the tasks.



A similar risk of death for mobility, IADL and BADL in both genders was found, suggesting that any of these domains can be used to identify risk of all-cause mortality among older adults. The number of activities with limitations in each domain was an important factor.

Related papers:

title: Risk factors for functional status decline in community-living elderly people: a systematic literature review.
abstract: To lay the groundwork for devising, improving and implementing strategies to prevent or delay the onset of disability in the elderly, we conducted a systematic literature review of longitudinal studies published between 1985 and 1997 that reported statistical associations between individual base-line risk factors and subsequent functional status in community-living older persons. Functional status decline was defined as disability or physical function limitation. We used MEDLINE, PSYCINFO, SOCA, EMBASE, bibliographies and expert consultation to select the articles, 78 of which met the selection criteria. Risk factors were categorized into 14 domains and coded by two independent abstractors. Based on the methodological quality of the statistical analyses between risk factors and functional outcomes (e.g. control for base-line functional status, control for confounding, attrition rate), the strength of evidence was derived for each risk factor. The association of functional decline with medical findings was also analyzed. The highest strength of evidence for an increased risk in functional status decline was found for (alphabetical order) cognitive impairment, depression, disease burden (comorbidity), increased and decreased body mass index, lower extremity functional limitation, low frequency of social contacts, low level of physical activity, no alcohol use compared to moderate use, poor self-perceived health, smoking and vision impairment. The review revealed that some risk factors (e.g. nutrition, physical environment) have been neglected in past research. This review will help investigators set priorities for future research of the Disablement Process, plan health and social services for elderly persons and develop more cost-effective programs for preventing disability among them.

title: Risk Factors and Precipitants of Long-Term Disability in Community Mobility
abstract: Relatively little is known about why older persons develop long-term disability in community mobility.



To identify the risk factors and precipitants for long-term disability in walking a quarter mile and driving a car.



Prospective cohort study from March 1998 to December 2009.



Greater New Haven, 
641 persons, aged 70 years or older, who were active drivers or nondisabled in walking a quarter mile. Persons who were physically frail were oversampled.



Candidate risk factors were assessed every 18 months. Disability in community mobility and exposure to potential precipitants, including illnesses or injuries leading to hospitalization or restricted activity, were assessed every month. Disability that lasted 6 or more consecutive months was considered long-term.



318 (56.0%) and 269 (53.1%) participants developed long-term disability in walking and driving, respectively. Seven risk factors were independently associated with walking disability and 8 were associated with driving disability; the strongest associations for each outcome were found for older age and lower score on the Short Physical Performance Battery. The precipitants had a large effect on long-term disability, with multivariate hazard ratios for each outcome greater than 6.2 for hospitalization and greater than 2.4 for restricted activity. The largest differences in absolute risk were generally observed in participants with a specific risk factor who were subsequently hospitalized.



The observed associations may not be causal. The severity of precipitants was not assessed. The effect of the precipitants may have been underestimated because their exposure after the initial onset of disability was not evaluated.



Long-term disability in community mobility is common among older persons. Multiple risk factors, together with subsequent precipitants, greatly increase the likelihood of long-term mobility disability.

title: Mortality risk associated with disability: a population-based record linkage study.
abstract: We assessed the association between mortality and disability and quantified the effect of disability-associated risk factors.



We linked data from cross-sectional health surveys in the Netherlands to the population registry to create a large data set comprising baseline covariates and an indicator of death. We used Cox regression models to estimate the hazard ratio of disability on mortality.



Among men, the unadjusted hazard ratio for activities of daily living, mobility, or mild disability defined by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development at age 55 years was 7.85 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.36, 14.13), 5.21 (95% CI = 3.19, 8.51), and 1.87 (95% CI = 1.58, 2.22), respectively. People with disability in activities of daily living and mobility had a 10-year shorter life expectancy than nondisabled people had, of which 6 years could be explained by differences in lifestyle, sociodemographics, and major chronic diseases.



Disabled people face a higher mortality risk than nondisabled people do. Although the difference can be explained by diseases and other risk factors for those with mild disability, we cannot rule out that more severe disabilities have an independent effect on mortality.

title: Predictors of mortality in men and women aged 90 and older: a nine-year follow-up study in the Vitality 90+ study.
abstract: information about the predictors of mortality among the oldest-old is limited. Also possible gender differences are poorly known.



to examine the predictors of mortality among individuals aged 90 and older, focusing on differences between men and women. We also analysed gender differences in survival at different levels of mobility and activities in daily living (ADL).



this 9-year follow-up study is part of the Vitality 90+ study, a population-based study of people aged 90 and older.



all inhabitants aged 90 and older in the area of Tampere, Finland were contacted, irrespective of health or dwelling place. The study population consisted of 171 men and 717 women.



data were collected with a mailed questionnaire asking questions concerning ADL and mobility, self-rated health, chronic conditions and socio-economic factors. The participation rate was 79%. Cox regression enter models were used for the analysis.



older age, male gender, disability in ADL and mobility, poor self-rated health and institutionalisation increased the risk of mortality in the total study group. In age-adjusted Cox regression models, ADL and mobility were stronger predictors in men than in women (gender interactions, P < 0.001). Among those who were partly but not totally dependent in ADL or mobility women survived longer than men.



the same health indicators that are important at younger old age also predict mortality in the oldest-old. Disability increases the likelihood of death more in men than women. At a very old age, women survive longer with moderate disability than do men.

title: Gender differences in trajectories of health limitations and subsequent mortality. A study based on the German Socioeconomic Panel 1995-2001 with a mortality follow-up 2002-2005.
abstract: Although research on health limitations has investigated gender differences in health and mortality, gender differentials in individual-level trajectories have been studied less frequently. Moreover, there are no studies on the relationship between course types and subsequent mortality. We investigate course types, explore confounding by socioeconomic and demographic correlates, and pose the question of whether the gender gap in morbidity results from differences in the onset of, and/or survival with, health limitations.



Using the German Socioeconomic Panel, we identify individual trajectories of health limitations and use multinomial logistic regressions to explore confounding and the relationship with mortality.



The frequency of stable trajectories without limitations is lower among women because they tend to experience courses that involve extended periods of limitations and deteriorating health. Women also experience more frequently improvement after deterioration. The female mortality advantage is particularly large after health deterioration.



Health limitations do not make men and women more equal in the face of death. Our results are consistent with earlier studies showing that mortality selection and differences in chronic conditions may explain the gender gap in health and mortality. We extend previous research showing that the female health disadvantage is largely the result of their mortality advantage.

title: Ability to Walk 1/4 Mile Predicts Subsequent Disability, Mortality, and Health Care Costs
abstract: ABSTRACTBackgroundMobility, such as walking 1/4 mile, is a valuable but underutilized health indicator among older adults. For mobility to be successfully integrated into clinical practice and health policy, an easily assessed marker that predicts subsequent health outcomes is required.ObjectiveTo determine the association between mobility, defined as self-reported ability to walk 1/4 mile, and mortality, functional decline, and health care utilization and costs during the subsequent year.DesignAnalysis of longitudinal data from the 2003–2004 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, a nationally representative sample of Medicare beneficiaries.ParticipantsParticipants comprised 5895 community-dwelling adults aged 65 years or older enrolled in Medicare.Main MeasuresMobility (self-reported ability to walk 1/4 mile), mortality, incident difficulty with activities of daily living (ADLs), total annual health care costs, and hospitalization rates. ResultsAmong older adults, 28% reported difficulty and 17% inability to walk 1/4 mile at baseline. Compared to those without difficulty and adjusting for demographics, socioeconomic status, chronic conditions, and health behaviors, mortality was greater in those with difficulty [AOR (95% CI): 1.57 (1.10-2.24)] and inability [AOR (CI): 2.73 (1.79-4.15)]. New functional disability also occurred more frequently as self-reported ability to walk 1/4 mile declined (subsequent incident disability among those with no difficulty, difficulty, or inability to walk 1/4 mile at baseline was 11%, 29%, and 47% for instrumental ADLs, and 4%, 14%, and 23% for basic ADLs). Total annual health care costs were $2773 higher (95% CI $1443-4102) in persons with difficulty and $3919 higher (CI $1948-5890) in those who were unable. For each 100 persons, older adults reporting difficulty walking 1/4 mile at baseline experienced an additional 14 hospitalizations (95% CI 8-20), and those who were unable experienced an additional 22 hospitalizations (CI 14-30) during the follow-up period, compared to persons without walking difficulty.ConclusionsMobility disability, a simple self-report measure, is a powerful predictor of future health, function, and utilization independent of usual health and demographic indicators. Mobility disability may be used to target high-risk patients for care management and preventive interventions.

title: Disability and all-cause mortality in the older population: evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing
abstract: Despite the vast body of literature studying disability and mortality, evidence to support their association is scarce. This work investigates the role of disability in explaining all‐cause mortality among individuals aged 50+ who participated in the English Longitudinal Study of Aging. The aim is to explain the gender paradox in health and mortality by analysing whether the association of disability with mortality differs between women and men. Disability was conceived following the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF), proposed by the WHO, that conceptualizes disability as a combination of three components: impairment, activity limitation and participation restriction. Latent variable models were used to identify domain-specific factors and general disability. The association of the latter with mortality up to 10 years after enrolment was estimated using discrete-time survival analysis. Our work confirms the validity of the ICF framework and finds that disability is strongly associated with mortality, with a time-varying effect among men, and a smaller constant effect for women. Adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic and behavioural factors attenuated the association for both sexes, but overall the effects remained high and significant. These findings confirm the existence of gender paradox by showing that, when affected by disability, women survive longer than men, although if men survive the first years they appear to become more resilient to disability. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the gender paradox cannot be solely explained by gender-specific health conditions: there must be other mechanisms acting within the pathway between disability and mortality that need to be explored.

title: Country of birth, instrumental activities of daily living, self-rated health and mortality: a Swedish population-based survey of people aged 55-74.
abstract: There is scant knowledge of the effects of country of birth on the health of individuals in the years prior to and after retirement. The aim of this study was to consider country of birth in relation to health status, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and all-cause mortality when adjusted for socioeconomic status (SES). Cross-sectional data were collected between 1986 and 1991 on 8959 individuals between the ages of 55 and 74. Self-reported data were analysed using a logistic regression model while the mortality data were analysed by means of a proportional hazard model. In the present study, immigrants from Southern Europe, Eastern Europe and Finland carried significantly increased risks of poor health even after adjustment for SES. Southern Europeans, refugees from Developing countries and Finns exhibited an increased risk of impaired IADL compared to Swedes, even after adjustment for SES. In conclusion, country of birth was associated with poor health status and impaired IADL. This association remained after adjustment for SES. In accordance with pre-study expectations, mortality was predicted by impaired IADL and male gender. Country of birth was not associated with all-cause mortality.

title: High-level activities of daily living and disease-specific mortality during a 12-year follow-up of an octogenarian population
abstract: Little is known about the relationship between disease-specific mortality and high-level activities of daily living in the elderly. We examined whether mortality is associated with high-level activities of daily living in an octogenarian population.  We conducted a population-based cross-sectional and prospective cohort study in 693 older persons aged 80 years and living in Japan’s Fukuoka Prefecture. We then evaluated the association between 12-year disease-specific mortality and high-level functional capacity as measured by the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of Competence, which is a standardized multidimensional 13-item instrument; items 1 through 5 are classified as instrumental self-maintenance activity, items 6 through 9 as intellectual activity, items 10 through 13 as social roles activity, and all 13 items together yield total functional capacity.  By the 12-year follow-up of the 693 participants, 413 had died, 242 survived, and 38 were unable to be located. Of the 413 who died, 105 died of cardiovascular disease, 73 of respiratory tract disease, 71 of cancer, and 39 of senility. Of the other 125 deaths, 59 were due to other diseases, and the cause of death for 66 participants is not known. The hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality, adjusted for confounding factors with multivariate Cox analyses, fell by 6% (HR 0.937, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.899–0.978, P = 0.003) with each one-point increase in participants’ scores on the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of total functional capacity. With one-point increases in instrumental self-maintenance activity and in intellectual activity, the HRs for all-cause mortality decreased by 14% (HR 0.856, 95% CI 0.787–0.930, P = 0.000) and 12% (HR 0.884, 95% CI 0.794–0.983, P = 0.023), respectively. Respiratory mortality with HR adjustment fell by 11% (HR 0.887, 95% CI 0.804–0.978, P = 0.016) and 24% (HR 0.760, 95% CI 0.627–0.922, P = 0.005) with one-point increases in the scores of total functional capacity and instrumental self-maintenance activity, respectively. Similarly, mortality due to senility fell by 16% (HR 0.838, 95% CI 0.743–0.946, P = 0.004), 29% (HR 0.707, 95% CI 0.564–0.886, P = 0.003), and 29% (HR 0.710, 95% CI 0.522–0.966, P = 0.029) with one-point increases in the scores of total functional capacity, instrumental self-maintenance activity, and intellectual activity, respectively.  These findings suggest that high-level activities of daily living may be an independent predictor of mortality due to all causes, respiratory disease and senility in older persons.

title: Dementia and physical disability as competing risks for mortality in a community-based sample of the elderly Japanese.
abstract: To examine whether an excess mortality due to dementia is independent of coexisting physical disability, a probability-sample of the non-institutionalized elderly (n = 3,308) living in Sendai City, Japan was followed between 1988 and 1991. Of those, 128 were diagnosed as dementia in 1988 by psychiatrists, using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition-Revised as a diagnostic standard. Information on the ability to perform activities of daily living (ADL) was collected by self-report of the study subjects in 1988 baseline survey. The survival status was investigated three years later. The risks of dementia and co-existing ADL disability for mortality was examined by Cox proportional hazard models. The results indicated that the relation between dementia and mortality was two-fold, depending upon the physical functions. Dementia increased the risk for mortality among those without ADL disability, but it did not so among those with ADL disability, rather ADL function was a stronger predictor for mortality among the latter individuals. Prevention and treatment of physical disability would be important for improving the survival of the demented people.

title: STUDIES OF ILLNESS IN THE AGED. THE INDEX OF ADL: A STANDARDIZED MEASURE OF BIOLOGICAL AND PSYCHOSOCIAL FUNCTION.
abstract: The Index of ADL was developed to study results of treatment and prognosis in the elderly and chronically ill. Grades of the Index summarize over-all performance in bathing, dressing, going to toilet, transferring, continence, and feeding. More than 2,000 evaluations of 1,001 individuals demonstrated use of the Index as a survey instrument, as an objective guide to the course of chronic illness, as a tool for studying the aging process, and as an aid in rehabilitation teaching. Of theoretical interest is the observation that the order of recovery of Index functions in disabled patients is remarkably similar to the order of development of primary functions in children. This parallelism, and similarity to the behavior of primitive peoples, suggests that the Index is based on primary biological and psychosocial function, reflecting the adequacy of organized neurological and locomotor response.

title: Assessment of Older People: Self-Maintaining and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living
abstract: THE use of formal devices for assessing function is becoming standard in agencies serving the elderly. In the Gerontological Society's recent contract study on functional assessment (Howell, 1968), a large assortment of rating scales, checklists, and other techniques in use in applied settings was easily assembled. The present state of the trade seems to be one in which each investigator or practitioner feels an inner compusion to make his own scale and to cry that other existent scales cannot possibly fit his own setting. The authors join this company in presenting two scales first standardized on their own population (Lawton, 1969). They take some comfort, however, in the fact that one scale, the Physical Self-Maintenance Scale (PSMS), is largely a scale developed and used by other investigators (Lowenthal, 1964), which was adapted for use in our own institution. The second of the scales, the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale (IADL), taps a level of functioning heretofore inadequately represented in attempts to assess everyday functional competence. Both of the scales have been tested further for their usefulness in a variety of types of institutions and other facilities serving community-resident older people. Before describing in detail the behavior measured by these two scales, we shall briefly describe the schema of competence into which these behaviors fit (Lawton, 1969). Human behavior is viewed as varying in the degree of complexity required for functioning in a variety of tasks. The lowest level is called life maintenance, followed by the successively more complex levels of func-

title: A hierarchical model of domains of disablement in the elderly: a longitudinal approach
abstract: the aims of this paper are to verify that a hierarchical relationship exists between the concepts of Activities of Daily Living (ADL), Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) and mobility and to use this hierarchical model to describe the evolution of disability.  3751 elderly community dwellers were followed-up 3 and 5 years after baseline interview. A hierarchic disability scale was computed by summing up the number of domains (ADL, IADL, mobility) in which a subject was dependent. Coefficients of scalability and reproducibility of the scale were computed. The hierarchic scale was used to describe transitions between states at each follow-up.  the hierarchical model fitted 99.3% of the subjects at baseline. At each follow-up most transitions were towards contiguous grades of disability in survivors, whatever their age. There was a significant trend towards increasing disability. Death rates were higher in subjects aged 75 and over, whatever their disability level. The patterns of evolution differed according to gender.  the cumulative disability scale can be used to describe the evolution of disability with time in elderly community dwellers.

title: A hierarchical categorisation of tasks in mobility disability
abstract: In the field of long-term care, disability usually refers to difficulties in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) or basic activities of daily living (BADL); this term may also refer to difficulties in mobility for those more interested in preventive intervention or general health promotion. The aims of this study were to (1) categorise a complete set of mobility tasks according to a revealed hierarchy, and (2) examine the relationship between this mobility hierarchy and IADL/BADL disabilities. We categorised nine mobility tasks according to appearance order in self-reported difficulties data obtained from a Taiwanese national database of community-dwelling elders aged over 65. We also performed correlation tests to explore the relationships of these mobility tasks with six tasks each of IADL and BADL. The results revealed a three-level hierarchy of mobility disability: (1) mild disability indicated by difficulties in four mobility tasks, which correlated with difficulty in one IADL task; (2) moderate disability indicated by difficulties in three mobility tasks, which correlated with difficulties in most IADL tasks; and (3) severe disability indicated by difficulties in two mobility tasks, which correlated with difficulties in all BADL tasks. The same hierarchy was observed for males and females. There is a clear hierarchical structure of mobility disability that correlates differently with IADL and BADL disabilities. These results suggest that different mobility tasks should be included in disability assessments to suit specific purposes.

title: Longitudinal study of physical ability in the oldest-old.
abstract: Based on 1984 data from the Longitudinal Study on Aging, one-third of White persons aged 80 or older living in the community (N = 1,791) were defined as having no difficulty in walking 1/4 of a mile, in lifting 10 pounds, in climbing 10 steps without resting, or in stooping, crouching or kneeling. Physical ability was associated with lower risk of death over two years mean follow-up; Relative odds (RO) = .4 (95 percent confidence interval = .4, .6) and in survivors, lower utilization of hospitals RO = .4 (CI = .3, .7), physicians RO = .6 (CI = .5, .8) and nursing homes RO = .3 (CI = .2, .5) compared with those having difficulty on any of the four functional measures included in the definition of physical ability. Fifty percent of the women and 42 percent of the men physically able at the time of the baseline survey in 1984 remained physically able at follow-up. Continued physical ability in this group was associated with never having had cardiovascular disease RO = 2.1, (CI = 1.2, 3.7), never having had arthritic complaints RO = 1.9 (CI = 1.2, 2.7), a body mass index less than the 75th percentile RO = 1.8 (CI = 1.2, 2.9), younger age (for each decade of age, RO = 2.0 (CI = 1.1, 3.6), and higher level of education (greater than 13 years versus 0-6 years) RO = 2.4 (CI = 1.2, 4.7). These correlates include factors amenable to preventive measures and highlight the need to consider the heterogeneity of the oldest-old in formulating programs aimed at prevention and postponement of disability.

title: Disability transitions in the oldest old in the general population. The Leiden 85-plus study
abstract: Transitions between disability states in older people occur frequently. This study investigated predictors of disability transitions in the oldest old and was performed in the Leiden 85-plus study, a population-based prospective cohort study among 597 participants aged 85 years. At baseline (age 85 years), data on sociodemographic characteristics and chronic diseases were obtained. Disabilities in basic activities of daily living (BADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) were measured annually for 5 years with the Groningen Activities Restriction Scale (GARS). Mortality data were obtained. A statistical multi-state model was used to assess the risks of transitions between no disabilities, IADL disability, BADL disability, and death. At baseline, 299 participants (50.0 %) were disabled in IADL only, and 155 participants (26.0 %) were disabled in both BADL and IADL. During 5-year follow-up, 374 participants (62.6 %) made >1 transition between disability states, mostly deterioration in disability. Males had a lower risk of deterioration [hazard ratio (HR), 0.75 (95 % CI, 0.58–0.96)] compared to females. No gender differences were observed for improvement [HR, 0.64 (95 % CI, 0.37–1.11)]. Participants with depressive symptoms were less likely to improve [HR, 0.50 (95 % CI, 0.28–0.87)]. Participants with depressive symptoms [HR, 1.46 (95 % CI, 1.12–1.91)], >1 chronic disease [HR, 1.60 (95 % CI, 1.27–2.01)], and with cognitive impairment [HR, 1.60 (95 % CI, 1.20–2.13)] had the highest risk of deteriorating. Disability is a dynamic process in the oldest old. Deterioration is more common than improvement. Older men are less likely to deteriorate than women. The presence of depressive symptoms, chronic disease, and cognitive impairment predicts deterioration.

title: Men: good health and high mortality. Sex differences in health and aging
abstract: This review examines sex differences in health and survival, with a focus on the Nordic countries. There is a remarkable discrepancy between the health and survival of the sexes: men are physically stronger and have fewer disabilities, but have substantially higher mortality at all ages compared with women: the so-called male-female health-survival paradox. A number of proposed explanations for this paradox are rooted in biological, social, and psychological interpretations. It is likely to be due to multiple causes that include fundamental biological differences between the sexes such as genetic factors, immune system responses, hormones, and disease patterns. Behavioral differences such as risk-taking and reluctance to seek and comply with medical treatment may also play a role. Another consideration is that part of the difference may be due to methodological challenges, such as selective non-participation and under-reporting of health problems, and delayed seeking of treatment by men. The Nordic countries provide a unique opportunity for such studies, as they have good-quality data in their national health registers, which cover the whole population, and a long tradition of high participation rates in surveys.

title: Predictors of 10-year mortality in a population of community-dwelling Brazilian elderly: the Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging.
abstract: We used data on 1,399 participants aged 60 and over from the Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging to examine predictors of mortality in a socioeconomically disadvantaged population. From 1997 to 2007, 599 participants died and 6.2% were lost to follow-up, leading to 12,415 person-years (pyrs) of observation. The death rate was 48.3 per 1,000 pyrs. Age (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 1.40), male gender (HR = 1.80), never married (HR = 1.78) or a widow (HR = 1.26), poor self-rated health (HR = 1.31), inability to perform four or more activities of daily living (HR = 3.29), number of cardiovascular risk factors (HR = 1.51 for two and HR = 1.91 for three or more), Trypanosoma cruzi infection (HR = 1.27), and number of medications (HR = 1.06) were each significantly (p < 0.05) and independently associated with mortality. The Mini-Mental State Examination score showed a protective effect (HR = 0.96). Except T. cruzi infection, other predictors of mortality were highly consistent with those found in more affluent elderly populations.

title: Dependence in Activities of Daily Living and Cognitive Impairment Strongly Predicted Mortality in Older Urban Residents in Brazil: A 2‐Year Follow‐Up
abstract: To identify a set of predictors of mortality among residents in the community, before any physical, biochemical, or image examination is performed, that could be collected on a routine standardized basis, to help the clinician define a patient follow‐up strategy and the health planner make decisions regarding the care of older people.

title: Cohort profile: the Bambui (Brazil) Cohort Study of Ageing.
abstract: Ageing of the population is the most important demographic change facing many countries around the world. The speed of demographic ageing in Latin American and the Caribbean, however, will be unprecedented in comparison with Western European and North American countries. This demographic change will generate populations with large numbers of elderly who at some time in their lives have been exposed to infectious diseases. Infections may affect ageing in different ways. Most important postulated mechanisms include enhanced inflammation, pathogen-dependent tissue destruction or accelerated cellular ageing through increased turnover. Most epidemiological studies of ageing have, understandably, focused on non-communicable diseases and related conditions. To our knowledge, no previous population-based cohort study had examined the consequences of the double burden of non-communicable diseases and a parasitic chronic infection in old age. Chagas disease, which is caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, is endemic in Latin American countries, with about 8 million people infected. As a consequence of immigration from endemic countries, Chagas disease is an emerging issue in North America and Europe, and an example in the era of globalization of how infectious diseases extend beyond endemic areas. Chagas disease is related to poor socio-economic circumstances in early life. In endemic areas, the main source of infection is a bloodsucking triatomine insect that colonizes poor households. Most individuals in these areas acquire the infection at <20 years of age, and 30% develop chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy. The ageing of the population, together with a cohort effect observed in endemic areas where the household insect transmission has been interrupted, will lead to increases in the number of older adults who are already infected by T. cruzi. The main objective of the Bambui Cohort Study of Ageing is to examine the separate and joint effects of chronic T. cruzi infection and non-communicable diseases on health outcomes in old age.

title: Mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults (The ELSA and Bambui cohort ageing studies)
abstract: The main aim of this study was to quantify and compare 6-year mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults. This study represents a rare opportunity to approach the subject in two different social and economic contexts.  Data from the data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Bambuí Cohort Study of Ageing (Brazil) were used. Deaths in both cohorts were identified through mortality registers. Risk factors considered in this study were baseline smoking, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Both age–sex adjusted hazard ratios and population attributable risks (PAR) of all-cause mortality and their 95% confidence intervals for the association between risk factors and mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models.  Participants were 3205 English and 1382 Brazilians aged 60 years and over. First, Brazilians showed much higher absolute risk of mortality than English and this finding was consistent in all age, independently of sex. Second, as a rule, hazard ratios for mortality to smoking, hypertension and diabetes showed more similarities than differences between these two populations. Third, there was strong difference among English and Brazilians on attributable deaths to hypertension.  The findings indicate that, despite of being in more recent transitions, the attributable deaths to one or more risk factors was twofold among Brazilians relative to the English. These findings call attention for the challenge imposed to health systems to prevent and treat non-communicable diseases, particularly in populations with low socioeconomic level.

title: Mobility in older adults: a comprehensive framework.
abstract: Mobility is fundamental to active aging and is intimately linked to health status and quality of life. Although there is widespread acceptance regarding the importance of mobility in older adults, there have been few attempts to comprehensively portray mobility, and research has to a large extent been discipline specific. In this article, a new theoretical framework for mobility is presented with the goals of raising awareness of the complexity of factors that influence mobility and stimulating new integrative and interdisciplinary research ideas. Mobility is broadly defined as the ability to move oneself (e.g., by walking, by using assistive devices, or by using transportation) within community environments that expand from one's home, to the neighborhood, and to regions beyond. The concept of mobility is portrayed through 5 fundamental categories of determinants (cognitive, psychosocial, physical, environmental, and financial), with gender, culture, and biography (personal life history) conceptualized as critical cross-cutting influences. Each category of determinants consists of an increasing number of factors, demonstrating greater complexity, as the mobility environment expands farther from the home. The framework illustrates how mobility impairments can lead to limitations in accessing different life-spaces and stresses the associations among determinants that influence mobility. By bridging disciplines and representing mobility in an inclusive manner, the model suggests that research needs to be more interdisciplinary and current mobility findings should be interpreted more comprehensively, and new more complex strategies should be developed to address mobility concerns.

title: 2011 Compendium of Physical Activities: a second update of codes and MET values.
abstract: The Compendium of Physical Activities was developed to enhance the comparability of results across studies using self-report physical activity (PA) and is used to quantify the energy cost of a wide variety of PA. We provide the second update of the Compendium, called the 2011 Compendium.



The 2011 Compendium retains the previous coding scheme to identify the major category headings and specific PA by their rate of energy expenditure in MET. Modifications in the 2011 Compendium include cataloging measured MET values and their source references, when available; addition of new codes and specific activities; an update of the Compendium tracking guide that links information in the 1993, 2000, and 2011 compendia versions; and the creation of a Web site to facilitate easy access and downloading of Compendium documents. Measured MET values were obtained from a systematic search of databases using defined key words.



The 2011 Compendium contains 821 codes for specific activities. Two hundred seventeen new codes were added, 68% (561/821) of which have measured MET values. Approximately half (317/604) of the codes from the 2000 Compendium were modified to improve the definitions and/or to consolidate specific activities and to update estimated MET values where measured values did not exist. Updated MET values accounted for 73% of all code changes.



The Compendium is used globally to quantify the energy cost of PA in adults for surveillance activities, research studies, and, in clinical settings, to write PA recommendations and to assess energy expenditure in individuals. The 2011 Compendium is an update of a system for quantifying the energy cost of adult human PA and is a living document that is moving in the direction of being 100% evidence based.

title: Energy expenditure through physical activity in a population of community-dwelling Brazilian elderly: cross-sectional evidences from the Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging.
abstract: The aim of this study was to estimate physical activity energy expenditure among older adults. The study comprised 1,585 residents in Bambuí, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, aged > 60 years (91% of the town's total elderly), and examined the frequency and duration of 23 types of physical activity among them. Median energy expenditure was 975 MET.min/week (1,195.8 among men and 803.1 among women), declining significantly with age in both sexes. The prevalence of sedentary lifestyles (< 450 MET.min/week) was 31.2%. Unhurried walking accounted for about 1/3 of total energy expenditure. Multivariate analysis based on ordinal logistic regression showed inverse associations between energy expenditure and age and hospitalizations in both sexes. Among men, inverse associations were observed with smoking, number of chronic diseases and number of medical appointments. These results emphasize the need for effective strategies to increase physical activity in older elderly, and underscore the high prevalence of walking in this group.

title: Physical function and self-rated health status as predictors of mortality: results from longitudinal analysis in the ilSIRENTE study
abstract: BackgroundPhysical function measures have been shown to predict negative health-related events in older persons, including mortality. These markers of functioning may interact with the self-rated health (SRH) in the prediction of events. Aim of the present study is to compare the predictive value for mortality of measures of physical function and SRH status, and test their possible interactions.MethodsData are from 335 older persons aged ≥ 80 years (mean age 85.6 years) enrolled in the "Invecchiamento e Longevità nel Sirente" (ilSIRENTE) study. The predictive values for mortality of 4-meter walk test, Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), hand grip strength, Activities of Daily Living (ADL) scale, Instrumental ADL (IADL) scale, and a SRH scale were compared using proportional hazard models. Kaplan-Meier survival curves for mortality and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were also computed to estimate the predictive value of the independent variables of interest for mortality (alone and in combination).ResultsDuring the 24-month follow-up (mean 1.8 years), 71 (21.2%) events occurred in the study sample. All the tested variables were able to significantly predict mortality. No significant interaction was reported between physical function measures and SRH. The SPPB score was the strongest predictor of overall mortality after adjustment for potential confounders (per SD increase; HR 0.64; 95%CI 0.48–0.86). A similar predictive value was showed by the SRH (per SD increase; HR 0.76; 95%CI 0.59–0.97). The chair stand test was the SPPB subtask showing the highest prognostic value.ConclusionAll the tested measures are able to predict mortality with different extents, but strongest results were obtained from the SPPB and the SRH. The chair stand test may be as useful as the complete SPPB in estimating the mortality risk.

title: [Life expectancy with functional disability in elderly persons in São Paulo, Brazil].
abstract: For persons 60 years of age or older living in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, in the year 2000 to estimate four characteristics: (1) life expectancy free of functional disability, (2) life expectancy with functional disability, (3) life expectancy with functional disability but without dependence, and (4) life expectancy with functional disability and dependence.



The estimates of the four characteristics were calculated by means of a life table constructed based on the method proposed by Sullivan. The basic data used for the calculations were the elderly population estimated for the city of São Paulo as of mid-2000, obtained from the demographic censuses of 1991 and 2000, and deaths in the elderly population, obtained from the State Data Analysis System Foundation (Fundação Sistema Estadual de Análise de Dados, or SEADE) of the state of São Paulo. The prevalences of functional disability and of functional dependence were calculated based on data concerning activities of daily living collected in the city of São Paulo as part of a project called Health, Well-being, and Aging in Latin America and the Caribbean (the "SABE project"). The activities of daily living considered were: dressing, eating, bathing, using the bathroom, lying down on the bed and getting up from it, and walking across a room. Functional disability was defined as difficulty in performing one or more of the activities of daily living. Dependence was defined as the need for help in performing at least one of the activities of daily living.



In 2000, 60-year-old men from the city of São Paulo could expect to live, on average, 17.6 years, of which 14.6 years (83%) would be free of functional disability. Women of the same age could expect to live 22.2 years, of which 16.4 years (74%) would be free of functional disability. Men would have a functional disability and be dependent on others for 1.6 years (9%), while the comparable period for women would be 2.5 years (11%).



Despite their longer life expectancy, the women faced more years with functional disability. The number of years with functional disability and dependence was also higher for the women. Public policies should take into account the differing needs of elderly women and of elderly men as well as other specific characteristics of this older population.

title: Disability in activities of daily living: patterns of change and a hierarchy of disability.
abstract: This paper examines longitudinal data over 6 years to evaluate incidence rates of disability and the pattern of dependency in activities of daily living.



The Longitudinal Study of Aging (n = 5151) was used to evaluate incidence of disability in activities of daily living; biennial interview data from 1984 through 1990 were used. The median age to disability onset for individual activities was estimated from survival analysis. A prevalent ordering of incident disability was identified from patterns of disability onset within individuals.



The progression of incident disability among the elderly supported by longitudinal data, based on both the ordering of median ages to disability onset and patterns of incident disability, was as follows: walking, bathing, transferring, dressing, toileting, feeding. Gender differences were found in disability incidence rates.



This study provides a mathematical picture of physical functioning as people age. These findings, based on longitudinal data, indicate a different hierarchical structure of disability than found in previous reports using cross-sectional data. Furthermore, the study documents gender differences in incident impairment, which indicate that although women outlive men, they spend more time in a disabled state.

title: Explaining the Effect of Gender on Functional Transitions in Older Persons
abstract: Women live longer but experience greater disability than men. The reasons for this gender difference in disability are not well understood.  Our objectives were to determine if the higher prevalence of disability in women is due to greater incidence of disability, longer duration of disability, or both, and to identify factors that potentially explain these gender differences.  754 community-living persons aged 70 and older who were non-disabled (required no personal assistance) in four essential activities of daily living (ADLs) were assessed monthly for disability for up to 6 years. A multi-state extension of the proportional hazards model was used to determine the effects of gender on transitions between states of no disability, mild disability, severe disability, and death, and to evaluate potential mediators of these effects.  Women were more likely to make the transition from no disability to mild disability and less likely to make the transitions from mild to no disability and from both mild and severe disability to death. The gender difference in the transitions between no disability and mild disability was largely explained by differences in gait speed and physical activity, but gender difference in transitions to death persisted despite adjustment for multiple potential mediators.  The higher prevalence of disability in women versus men is due to a combination of higher incidence and longer duration, resulting from lower rates of recovery and mortality among disabled women.