Modeling co-infection of Ixodes tick-borne pathogens.

Ticks, including the Ixodes ricinus and Ixodes scapularis hard tick species, are regarded as the most common arthropod vectors of both human and animal diseases in Europe and the United States capable of transmitting a large number of bacteria, viruses and parasites. Since ticks in larval and nymphal stages share the same host community which can harbor multiple pathogens, they may be co-infected with two or more pathogens, with a subsequent high likelihood of co-transmission to humans or animals. This paper is devoted to the modeling of co-infection of tick-borne pathogens, with special focus on the co-infection of Borrelia burgdorferi (agent of Lyme disease) and Babesia microti (agent of human babesiosis). Considering the effect of co-infection, we illustrate that co-infection with B. burgdorferi increases the likelihood of B. microti transmission, by increasing the basic reproduction number of B. microti below the threshold smaller than one to be possibly above the threshold for persistence. The study confirms a mechanism of the ecological fitness paradox, the establishment of B. microti which has weak fitness (basic reproduction number less than one). Furthermore, co-infection could facilitate range expansion of both pathogens.

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title: Coinfecting deer-associated zoonoses: Lyme disease, babesiosis, and ehrlichiosis.
abstract: The heightened worldwide recognition of the health burden of tickborne infection derives largely from the increasing incidence of Lyme disease, human babesiosis, and human granulocytic ehrlichiosis, both individually and in concert. Because these infections share the same rodent reservoir and tick vector hosts, they can be cotransmitted to human hosts. Indeed, human coinfections involving various combinations of these pathogens are common, and some tend to be particularly severe. Diagnostic procedures and clinical management of the resulting disease syndrome is rendered complex by the diversity of pathogens involved and by the unusual diversity and duration of symptoms.

title: Immunoserologic evidence of coinfection with Borrelia burgdorferi, Babesia microti, and human granulocytic Ehrlichia species in residents of Wisconsin and Minnesota
abstract: In Wisconsin and Minnesota, Ixodes scapularis (Ixodes dammini) ticks are the vector of three microorganisms that may cause significant disease in humans and lower mammals. These diseases include Lyme borreliosis, which is caused by Borrelia burgdorferi, babesiosis, which is caused by Babesia microti, and human granulocytic ehrlichiosis (HGE), which is caused by an apparently new species in the genus Ehrlichia. Immunoserologic testing was performed on sera from patients with a diagnosis of one of these diseases to determine if there was evidence of coinfection with one or more of the other agents. Of 96 patients with Lyme borreliosis, 9 (9.4%) demonstrated immunoserologic evidence of coinfection: 5 (5.2%) with the agent of HGE, 2 (2.1%) with B. microti, and 2 (2.1%) with both microorganisms. Of 19 patients diagnosed with HGE, 3 (15.8%) showed immunoserologic evidence of coinfection: 1 (5.3%) with B. burgdorferi, 1 (5.3%) with B. microti, and 1 (5.3%) with both microorganisms. One patient diagnosed with babesiosis was also seropositive for ehrlichiosis. These results provide evidence for coinfection, perhaps explaining the variable manifestations and clinical responses noted in some patients with tick-transmitted diseases. In certain clinical settings, laboratory testing for coinfection is indicated to ensure that appropriate antimicrobial treatment is given.

title: Risk maps for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis, in Canada now and with climate change
abstract: BackgroundLyme disease is the commonest vector-borne zoonosis in the temperate world, and an emerging infectious disease in Canada due to expansion of the geographic range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis. Studies suggest that climate change will accelerate Lyme disease emergence by enhancing climatic suitability for I. scapularis. Risk maps will help to meet the public health challenge of Lyme disease by allowing targeting of surveillance and intervention activities.ResultsA risk map for possible Lyme endemicity was created using a simple risk algorithm for occurrence of I. scapularis populations. The algorithm was calculated for each census sub-division in central and eastern Canada from interpolated output of a temperature-driven simulation model of I. scapularis populations and an index of tick immigration. The latter was calculated from estimates of tick dispersion distances by migratory birds and recent knowledge of the current geographic range of endemic I. scapularis populations. The index of tick immigration closely predicted passive surveillance data on I. scapularis occurrence, and the risk algorithm was a significant predictor of the occurrence of I. scapularis populations in a prospective field study. Risk maps for I. scapularis occurrence in Canada under future projected climate (in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s) were produced using temperature output from the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model 2 with greenhouse gas emission scenario enforcing 'A2' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.ConclusionWe have prepared risk maps for the occurrence of I. scapularis in eastern and central Canada under current and future projected climate. Validation of the risk maps provides some confidence that they provide a useful first step in predicting the occurrence of I. scapularis populations, and directing public health objectives in minimizing risk from Lyme disease. Further field studies are needed, however, to continue validation and refinement of the risk maps.

title: Coinfection by Ixodes Tick-Borne Pathogens: Ecological, Epidemiological, and Clinical Consequences.
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title: Modeling malaria and typhoid fever co-infection dynamics.
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title: Modelling Co-Infection with Malaria and Lymphatic Filariasis
abstract: Malaria and lymphatic filariasis (LF) continue to cause a considerable public health burden globally and are co-endemic in many regions of sub-Saharan Africa. These infections are transmitted by the same mosquito species which raises important questions about optimal vector control strategies in co-endemic regions, as well as the effect of the presence of each infection on endemicity of the other; there is currently little consensus on the latter. The need for comprehensive modelling studies to address such questions is therefore significant, yet very few have been undertaken to date despite the recognised explanatory power of reliable dynamic mathematical models. Here, we develop a malaria-LF co-infection modelling framework that accounts for two key interactions between these infections, namely the increase in vector mortality as LF mosquito prevalence increases and the antagonistic Th1/Th2 immune response that occurs in co-infected hosts. We consider the crucial interplay between these interactions on the resulting endemic prevalence when introducing each infection in regions where the other is already endemic (e.g. due to regional environmental change), and the associated timescale for such changes, as well as effects on the basic reproduction number R0 of each disease. We also highlight potential perverse effects of vector controls on human infection prevalence in co-endemic regions, noting that understanding such effects is critical in designing optimal integrated control programmes. Hence, as well as highlighting where better data are required to more reliably address such questions, we provide an important framework that will form the basis of future scenario analysis tools used to plan and inform policy decisions on intervention measures in different transmission settings.

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title: Delay differential systems for tick population dynamics
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title: Developing a temperature-driven map of the basic reproductive number of the emerging tick vector of Lyme disease Ixodes scapularis in Canada.
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title: Range expansion of Ixodes scapularis ticks and of Borrelia burgdorferi by migratory birds
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title: A PERIODIC ROSS-MACDONALD MODEL IN A PATCHY ENVIRONMENT.
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title: Modelling Malaria Control by Introduction of Larvivorous Fish
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title: Co-Infection of Blacklegged Ticks with Babesia microti and Borrelia burgdorferi Is Higher than Expected and Acquired from Small Mammal Hosts
abstract: Humans in the northeastern and midwestern United States are at increasing risk of acquiring tickborne diseases – not only Lyme disease, but also two emerging diseases, human granulocytic anaplasmosis and human babesiosis. Co-infection with two or more of these pathogens can increase the severity of health impacts. The risk of co-infection is intensified by the ecology of these three diseases because all three pathogens (Borrelia burgdorferi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Babesia microti) are transmitted by the same vector, blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis), and are carried by many of the same reservoir hosts. The risk of exposure to multiple pathogens from a single tick bite and the sources of co-infected ticks are not well understood. In this study, we quantify the risk of co-infection by measuring infection prevalence in 4,368 questing nymphs throughout an endemic region for all three diseases (Dutchess County, NY) to determine if co-infections occur at frequencies other than predicted by independent assortment of pathogens. Further, we identify sources of co-infection by quantifying rates of co-infection on 3,275 larval ticks fed on known hosts. We find significant deviations of levels of co-infection in questing nymphs, most notably 83% more co-infection with Babesia microti and Borrelia burgdorferi than predicted by chance alone. Further, this pattern of increased co-infection was observed in larval ticks that fed on small mammal hosts, but not on meso-mammal, sciurid, or avian hosts. Co-infections involving A. phagocytophilum were less common, and fewer co-infections of A. phagocytophilum and B. microti than predicted by chance were observed in both questing nymphs and larvae fed on small mammals. Medical practitioners should be aware of the elevated risk of B. microti/B. burgdorferi co-infection.

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title: Co-infection of Ticks: The Rule Rather Than the Exception
abstract: Ticks are the most common arthropod vectors of both human and animal diseases in Europe, and the Ixodes ricinus tick species is able to transmit a large number of bacteria, viruses and parasites. Ticks may also be co-infected with several pathogens, with a subsequent high likelihood of co-transmission to humans or animals. However few data exist regarding co-infection prevalences, and these studies only focus on certain well-known pathogens. In addition to pathogens, ticks also carry symbionts that may play important roles in tick biology, and could interfere with pathogen maintenance and transmission. In this study we evaluated the prevalence of 38 pathogens and four symbionts and their co-infection levels as well as possible interactions between pathogens, or between pathogens and symbionts.  A total of 267 Ixodes ricinus female specimens were collected in the French Ardennes and analyzed by high-throughput real-time PCR for the presence of 37 pathogens (bacteria and parasites), by rRT-PCR to detect the presence of Tick-Borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) and by nested PCR to detect four symbionts. Possible multipartite interactions between pathogens, or between pathogens and symbionts were statistically evaluated. Among the infected ticks, 45% were co-infected, and carried up to five different pathogens. When adding symbiont prevalences, all ticks were infected by at least one microorganism, and up to eight microorganisms were identified in the same tick. When considering possible interactions between pathogens, the results suggested a strong association between Borrelia garinii and B. afzelii, whereas there were no significant interactions between symbionts and pathogens.  Our study reveals high pathogen co-infection rates in ticks, raising questions about possible co-transmission of these agents to humans or animals, and their consequences to human and animal health. We also demonstrated high prevalence rates of symbionts co-existing with pathogens, opening new avenues of enquiry regarding their effects on pathogen transmission and vector competence.

title: Spatial Invasion Threshold of Lyme Disease
abstract: A mathematical model of Lyme disease is formulated to incorporate a spatially heterogenous structure. The basic reproduction number $R_0$ of the disease and its computational formulae are established. It is shown that $R_0$ serves as a threshold value between extinction and persistence in the evolution of Lyme disease. Numerical simulations indicate that spatial heterogeneity of the disease transmission coefficient increases the basic reproduction number, but spatial heterogeneity of the carrying capacity of mice alleviates the value of $R_0$. Moreover, the influence of host population in size, destruction of tick habitats, and deployment of vaccinations is studied to give insights into optimal control of the disease.