The effect of ENSO-induced rainfall and circulation changes on the direct and indirect radiative forcing from Indonesian biomass-burning aerosols

Emissions of biomass-burning aerosols from the Indonesian region are known to vary in response to rainfall anomalies associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For the severe El Nino-related drought in 1997, there have been several attempts to estimate the direct radiative forcing from increased aerosol emissions over Indonesia, as well as the associated feedbacks on climate. However, these estimates have not considered indirect aerosol effects. Another question that has not been addressed is whether the effect of ENSO-related circulation and rainfall anomalies on radiative forcing is significant relative to the effect of changes in emissions. In this study, we analyse the direct and first indirect radiative forcing from El Nino-related increased emissions of Indonesian biomass-burning aerosols, with and without the influence of ENSO-related rainfall and circulation anomalies. We compare two experiments that are performed with the CSIRO-Mk3.6 atmospheric global climate model (GCM). The first experiment (AMIP) consists of a pair of runs that respectively represent El Nino and La Nina conditions. In these runs, the distribution of aerosols is simulated under the influence of realistic Indonesian biomass-burning aerosol emissions and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for 1997 (El Nino) and 2000 (La Nina). The second experiment (CLIM) is identical to AMIP, but is forced by climatological SSTs, so that in CLIM meteorological differences between 1997 and 2000 are suppressed. The comparison of AMIP and CLIM shows that the aerosol radiative forcing anomalies associated with ENSO (El Nino minus La Nina) are substantially stronger when ENSO-related SST anomalies are taken into account. For the first indirect effect, the influence of SST-induced changes in rainfall and circulation exceeds that of changes in emissions. For the direct aerosol forcing, the influence of changes in SSTs and emissions are of comparable magnitude. Averaged over the Indonesian region (5.6° N–11.2° S, 96.6° E–150.9° E), the first indirect forcing is −0.7 Wm−2 in CLIM and −2.2 Wm−2 in AMIP during the months July to November. The direct aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere (surface) is −1.0 (−5.3) Wm−2 in CLIM and −1.8 (−9.1) Wm−2 in AMIP during the same period. Our results suggest that (a) the indirect aerosol effect from biomass-burning aerosols is strong enough to play an important role for impact assessments, and (b) that impacts of biomass-burning aerosols would be considerably underestimated if feedbacks of ENSO-related SST variations on radiative forcing are not taken into account.

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title: Observational evidence for the radiative impact of Indonesian smoke in modulating the sea surface temperature of the equatorial Indian Ocean
abstract: The smoke aerosol plume produced by intense forest fires over Indonesia during September–November 1997 provided a unique opportunity to investigate the radiative impact of aerosols on sea surface temperature (SST), primarily due to its episodic nature and occurrence of high aerosol optical depth (>0.8) for ∼2 months over the east equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO). The aerosol radiative effect was well discernible in SST because the month-to-month variation in shortwave aerosol direct cooling (ADC) was so large while the corresponding variations in the other governing factors such as surface wind and sea surface upwelling were less significant during this period, when the net cloud radiative forcing had a positive anomaly at the surface. The present study clearly shows that from September to October 1997, ADC at surface has increased by more than −46 Wm−2 over east EIO resulting a decrease in SST by >1°C. This might have provided a positive feedback to the Indian Ocean dipole influencing the meteorology of the south Asian region.

title: Indonesian Rainfall Variability: Impacts of ENSO and Local Air-Sea Interaction
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title: The 1997 fires in Kalimantan and Sumatra, Indonesia : Gaseous and particulate emissions
abstract: Extensive and widespread vegetation and peat fires swept throughout Kalimantan and Sumatra, Indonesia, from August 1997 through March 1998. The fires resulted from routine burning for land clearing and land-use change. However, the severe drought conditions resulting from El Nino caused small land-clearing fires to become large uncontrolled wildfires. Analysis of SPOT images indicate that a total of 45,600 km² burned between August and December 1997. In this paper, the gaseous and particulate emissions resulting from the 1997 fires are estimated. On a daily basis, the calculated emissions of CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, and particulates from the Kalimantan and Sumatra fires of 1997 significantly exceeded the emissions from the Kuwait oil fires of 1991.

title: Impact of Indonesian forest fires during the 1997 El Nino on the aerosol distribution over the Indian Ocean
abstract: The El Nino event of 1997–1998 followed by the La Nina in 1998–1999 was the strongest of its kind encountered in the 20th century. Associated with this event Indonesia experienced severe drought leading to large-scale forest fires. Large aerosol plumes from these fires advected over the equatorial Indian Ocean region. Development and decay of this plume and its regional transport are studied using the aerosol optical depth derived from the NOAA14-AVHRR data along with the tropospheric circulation and meteorological conditions derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The study shows that associated with the large-scale fires in the Indonesian region, a substantially large aerosol plume formed over the equatorial Indian Ocean in the latitude range of 5°N to 10°S, during September–November period of 1997. This plume was confined to the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean in September, and reached up to about 60°E by October. The westward transport of this aerosol plume was driven by the anomalous easterly winds over the tropical Indian Ocean during the El Nino period. A close association is observed between the aerosol optical depth over equatorial Indian Ocean and the fire counts over Southeast Asia derived from Along Track Scanning Radiometer data.

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abstract: Inventories for global aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions have been collected (based on published inventories and published simulations), assessed and prepared for the year 2000 (present-day conditions) and for the year 1750 (pre-industrial conditions). These global datasets establish a comprehensive source for emission input to global modeling, when simulating the aerosol impact on climate with state-of-the-art aerosol component modules. As these modules stratify aerosol into dust, sea-salt, sulfate, organic matter and soot, for all these aerosol types global fields on emission strength and recommendations for injection altitude and particulate size are provided. Temporal resolution varies between daily (dust and sea-salt), monthly (wild-land fires) and annual (all other emissions). These datasets benchmark aerosol emissions according to the knowledge in the year 2004. They are intended to serve as systematic constraints in sensitivity studies of the AeroCom initiative, which seeks to quantify (actual) uncertainties in aerosol global modeling.

title: Simulation of the tropospheric sulfur cycle in a global climate model
abstract: Emission, transport, chemistry and rainout of the sulfur species DMS, SO2 and sulfate are calculated on-line with the meteorology in a global atmospheric circulation model. The model simulates the main components of the hydrological cycle, including the liquid water content of clouds, and hence it allows an explicit treatment of cloud transformation processes and precipitation scavenging. The importance of the different oxidation pathways of DMS and SO2 is estimated. About 2 3 of the sulfate is produced within clouds, with H2O2 being the most efficient pathway (59%) and with a minor contribution due to oxidation with O3 (7%). Predicted atmospheric surface concentrations of SO2 and sulfate and the deposition fluxes are compared with the observations. Over most parts of the globe the agreement between simulated and observed annual averages is within a factor of 2. A significant underestimate of the simulated sulfate concentrations was found in high latitudes in winter. This bias may be attributed to a too slow oxidation in clouds. The calculated global mean turn-over times for DMS (2.2 d), SO2 (1.6 d) and sulfate (4.4 d) are within the range of previous estimates.

title: Simulation of the tropospheric sulfur cycle in a global model with a physically based cloud scheme
abstract: rewritten to better reflect the different properties of liquid and frozen precipitation, and the treatment of these in the model’s cloud microphysical scheme. The model is able to reproducetheobservedfinding thatwetdepositionofsulfuroverEuropeandNorthAmerica is larger in summer than in winter, but the seasonal cycle of sulfate over Europe is not well simulated. The latter is improved when the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of European emissions is increased. Below-cloud scavenging makes an important contribution in our scheme: On omitting it, the global sulfate burden increases from 0.67 to 0.93 Tg S. On reverting to the less efficient scavenging treatment used in ECHAM, the global sulfate burden again increases from 0.67 to 0.93 Tg S, and excessive sulfate concentrations are obtained in Europe and North America. Some deficiencies in the simulation are investigated viafurthersensitivitytests.Inparticular,duringtheArcticwinter,themodeledsulfurdioxide (SO2) concentrations are too large, and the modeled sulfate concentrations are too small (as in most global sulfur-cycle models). Recent laboratory experiments suggest that SO2 oxidationinicecloudsisnonnegligible.WeobtainamuchimprovedArcticsimulationwhen a simple treatment of SO2 oxidation in ice clouds is included.  Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801); 0320 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Cloud physics and chemistry; 3337 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Numerical modeling and data assimilation;  sulfur cycle, global climate model, sulfate aerosol, scavenging, cloud, precipitation Citation: Rotstayn, L. D., and U. Lohmann, Simulation of the tropospheric sulfur cycle in a global model with a physically based cloud scheme,  4592, doi:10.1029/2002JD002128, 2002.

title: Economical Determination of Departure Points for Semi-Lagrangian Models
abstract: An Eulerian procedure that avoids both interpolation and iteration is proposed for determining the departure points of trajectories. It is applicable to semi-Lagrangian models formulated either on the plane or on the sphere. The technique can achieve a high degree of accuracy; it is also simpler and more economical than other schemes, especially when applied on the sphere. The technique is applied to the cone advection test on the plane, as well as to a “Gaussian hill” problem on a rotating sphere.

title: A Mass Flux Convection Scheme with Representation of Cloud Ensemble Characteristics and Stability-Dependent Closure
abstract: The convection scheme used at the UK Meteorological Office in large-scale numerical models is described. The scheme uses a “bulk” cloud model to represent an ensemble of convective clouds and aims to represent shallow, deep and midlevel convection. A simple closure is employed, the initial convective mass flux being related to the stability of the initial convecting layer. The ability of the scheme to represent convective processes in a variety of situations is evaluated using GATE, BOMEX, and ATEX data. In each case realistic heating rates are simulated and although the closure of the scheme does not demand a balance between convective and large-scale forcings as in many other types of convection scheme (for example the Arakawa–Schubert scheme), a quasi-equilibrium is established while retaining realistic atmospheric structure. The performance of the scheme in an 11-layer atmospheric general circulation model used in climate research at the UK Meteorological Office is also evaluated by comparing...

title: A physically based scheme for the treatment of stratiform clouds and precipitation in large-scale models. I: Description and evaluation of the microphysical processes
abstract: A stratiform-cloud and precipitation scheme, incorporating prognostic variables for cloud liquid water and cloud ice, has been developed for the CSIRO global climate model (GCM). the scheme includes physically based treatments of key microphysical processes, turbulent mixing and semi-Lagrangian advection of cloud-water species and interactive cloud radiative properties. Objectives in the development of the scheme were to improve upon the physical realism of parametrizations used in earlier schemes, whilst also trying to provide a scheme with moderate computational overheads. 
 
The parametrized microphysical processes are evaluated in relation to observations and theory, and are compared to treatments used in earlier schemes in a series of short GCM experiments. It is argued that the treatment of precipitation formation in warm, and mixed-phase, stratiform clouds is more realistic in the present scheme than in earlier schemes, which used crude methods for the parametrization of autoconversion, and did not treat key ice-processes in a consistent way. In the present scheme, accretion processes are more important, whereas autoconversion is less important than in earlier schemes. 
 
To determine whether the cloud scheme requires the use of a reduced (split) time-step, the sensitivity of the various terms to the time-step is evaluated in another series of short GCM experiments. It is shown that the various terms are not very sensitive to the time-step, so the scheme can be efficiently implemented without the use of a split time-step. Overall, analytical or time-centred treatments perform better than implicit or explicit schemes, especially in the calculation of the precipitation of cloud ice, where only an accurate analytical treatment is found to perform satisfactorily at large time-steps. 
 
As a preliminary validation of the scheme, zonal-mean fields from a six-year model-run are presented for the month of July. the results generally agree well with observations; in particular, the modelled cloudiness and long-wave cloud-forcing fields are more realistic than those obtained with the standard version of the CSIRO GCM.

title: Erratum: ``Prediction of the number of cloud droplets in the ECHAM GCM''
abstract: In this paper a prognostic equation for the number of cloud droplets (CDNC) is introduced into the ECHAM general circulation model. The initial CDNC is based on the mechanistic model of Chuang and Penner [1995], providing a more realistical prediction of CDNC than the empirical method previously used. Cloud droplet nucleation is parameterized as a function of total aerosol number concentration, updraft velocity, and a shape parameter, which takes the aerosol composition and size distribution into account. The total number of aerosol particles is obtained as the sum of marine sulfate aerosols produced from dimethyl sulfide, hydrophylic organic and black carbon, submicron dust, and sea-salt aerosols. Anthropogenic sulfate aerosols only add mass to the preexisting aerosols but do not form new particles. The simulated annual mean liquid water path, column CDNC, and effective radius agree well with observations, as does the frequency distributions of column CDNC for clouds over oceans and the variations of cloud optical depth with effective radius.

title: Simulated enhancement of ENSO-related rainfall variability due to Australian dust
abstract: Australian dust emissions are highly episodic, and this may increase the importance of Australian dust as a climate feedback agent. We compare two 160-year coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations of modern-day climate using the CSIRO Mark 3.6 global climate model (GCM). The first run (DUST) includes an interactive treatment of mineral dust and its direct radiative effects. The second run (NODUST) is otherwise identical, but has the Australian dust source set to zero. We focus on the austral spring season, when the correlation between rainfall and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is strongest over Australia. The ENSO-rainfall relationship over eastern Australia is stronger in the DUST run: dry (El Nino) years tend to be drier, and wet (La Nina) years wetter. The amplification of ENSO-related rainfall variability over eastern Australia represents an improvement relative to observations. The effect is driven by ENSO-related anomalies in radiative forcing by Australian dust over the south-west Pacific Ocean; these anomalies increase (decrease) surface evaporation in La Nina (El Nino) years. Some of this moisture is advected towards eastern Australia, where increased (decreased) moisture convergence in La Nina (El Nino) years increases the amplitude of ENSO-related rainfall variability. The modulation of surface evaporation by dust over the south-west Pacific occurs via surface radiative forcing and dust-induced stabilisation of the boundary layer. The results suggest that (1) a realistic treatment of Australian dust may be necessary for accurate simulation of the ENSO-rainfall relationship over Australia, and (2) radiative feedbacks involving dust may be important for understanding natural rainfall variability over Australia.

title: Sensitivity of the first indirect aerosol effect to an increase of cloud droplet spectral dispersion with droplet number concentration
abstract: Observations show that an increase in anthropogenic aerosols leads to concurrent increases in the cloud droplet concentration and the relative dispersion of the cloud droplet spectrum, other factors being equal. It has been suggested that the increase in effective radius resulting from increased relative dispersion may substantially negate the indirect aerosol effect, but this is usually not parameterized in global climate models (GCMs). Empirical parameterizations, designed to represent the average of this effect, as well as its lower and upper bounds, are tested in the CSIRO GCM. Compared to a control simulation, in which the relative dispersion of the cloud droplet spectrum is prescribed separately over land and ocean, inclusion of this effect reduces the magnitude of the first indirect aerosol effect by between 12% and 35%.

title: Dispersion bias, dispersion effect, and the aerosol–cloud conundrum
abstract: This work examines the influences of relative dispersion (the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean radius of the cloud droplet size distribution) on cloud albedo and cloud radiative forcing, derives an analytical formulation that accounts explicitly for the contribution from droplet concentration and relative dispersion, and presents a new approach to parameterize relative dispersion in climate models. It is shown that inadequate representation of relative dispersion in climate models leads to an overestimation of cloud albedo, resulting in a negative bias of global mean shortwave cloud radiative forcing that can be comparable to the warming caused by doubling CO2 in magnitude, and that this dispersion bias is likely near its maximum for ambient clouds. Relative dispersion is empirically expressed as a function of the quotient between cloud liquid water content and droplet concentration (i.e., water per droplet), yielding an analytical formulation for the first aerosol indirect effect. Further analysis of the new expression reveals that the dispersion effect not only offsets the cooling from the Twomey effect, but is also proportional to the Twomey effect in magnitude. These results suggest that unrealistic representation of relative dispersion in cloud parameterization in general, and evaluation of aerosol indirect effects in particular, is at least in part responsible for several outstanding puzzles of the aerosol‐cloud conundrum: for example, overestimation of cloud radiative cooling by climate models compared to satellite observations; large uncertainty and discrepancy in estimates of the aerosol indirect effect; and the lack of interhemispheric difference in cloud albedo.

title: Possible impacts of anthropogenic and natural aerosols on Australian climate: a review
abstract: A review is presented of the aerosol-climate interaction with specific focus on the Australian region. The uncertainties associated with this interaction are much larger than those associated with greenhouse gases or other forcing agents, and are currently a major obstacle in climate-change research. However, new research suggests that aerosol effects are of comparable importance to greenhouse gases as a driver of recent climate trends in the Southern Hemisphere, including Australia. A significant new result from climate modelling is that anthropogenic aerosol over Asia affects meridional temperature gradients and atmospheric circulation, and may have caused an increase in rainfall over north-western Australia. Global ocean circulation provides another mechanism whereby aerosol changes in the Northern Hemisphere can affect climate in the Southern Hemisphere, suggesting an urgent need for further targeted studies using coupled ocean-atmosphere global climate models. To better model climate variability and climate change in the Australian region, more research is needed into the sources of aerosol and their precursors, their atmospheric distributions and transformations, and how to incorporate these processes robustly in global climate models (GCMs). The following priorities are suggested for further research in Australia linking aerosol observations and modelling: natural aerosol over the Southern Ocean, tropical biomass-burning aerosol in Indonesia and Australia, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from volatile organic compounds (VOCs), wind-blown dust and modulation of rainfall by anthropogenic aerosol.

title: A New Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Boundary Dataset for the Community Atmosphere Model
abstract: A new surface boundary forcing dataset for uncoupled simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model is described. It is a merged product based on the monthly mean Hadley Centre sea ice and SST dataset version 1 (HadISST1) and version 2 of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weekly optimum interpolation (OI) SST analysis. These two source datasets were also used to supply ocean surface information to the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40). The merged product provides monthly mean sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration data from 1870 to the present: it is updated monthly, and it is freely available for community use. The merging procedure was designed to take full advantage of the higher-resolution SST information inherent in the NOAA OI.v2 analysis.

title: Emission of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning
abstract: A large body of information on emissions from the various types of biomass burning has been accumulated over the past decade, to a large extent as a result of International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme/International Global Atmospheric Chemistry research activities. Yet this information has not been readily accessible to the atmospheric chemistry community because it was scattered over a large number of publications and reported in numerous different units and reference systems. We have critically evaluated the presently available data and integrated these into a consistent format. On the basis of this analysis we present a set of emission factors for a large variety of species emitted from biomass fires. Where data were not available, we have proposed estimates based on appropriate extrapolation techniques. We have derived global estimates of pyrogenic emissions for important species emitted by the various types of biomass burning and compared our estimates with results from inverse modeling studies.

title: On overestimation of tropical precipitation by an atmospheric GCM with prescribed SST
abstract: We investigate how an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) can reproduce atmospheric aspects of climate, when the boundary conditions are prescribed. The AGCM is integrated with sea surface temperature (SST) specified from an integration of a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). A systematic difference in the mean climate is found between the AGCM and the CGCM in the tropical Pacific. This difference is apparent when and where local SST is warmest. In the CGCM, precipitation does not last long due to SST and cloud-radiation feedback. Precipitation in the AGCM, however, tends to persist longer. Results of this experiment imply that caution is needed when using an AGCM with boundary conditions derived from a CGCM for climate change studies.

title: Local Air–Sea Relationship in Observations and Model Simulations
abstract: The present study compares the local simultaneous correlation between rainfall–evaporation and sea surface temperature (SST)–SST tendency among observations, coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, and stand-alone atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. The purpose is to demonstrate to what extent the model simulations can reproduce the observed air–sea relationship. While the model-simulated correlation agrees with the observations in the tropical eastern Pacific, large discrepancies are found in the subtropics, midlatitudes, and tropical Indo-western Pacific Ocean regions. In tropical Indo-western Pacific Ocean regions and the midlatitudes where the atmosphere contributes to the observed SST changes, the specified SST simulations produce excessive SST forcing, whereas the CGCM captures the atmospheric feedback on the SST, but with somewhat of an overestimation. In the subtropics, both the AGCM and CGCM produce unrealistic positive rainfall–SST correlations. In th...

title: The Relationship between Tropical Warm Pool Precipitation, Sea Surface Temperature, and Large-Scale Vertical Motion in IPCC AR4 Models
abstract: AbstractA regime sorting analysis is used to identify Caribbean and western Pacific precipitation, sea surface temperature, and large-scale vertical circulation relationships and biases within coupled and uncoupled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) general circulation models. This analysis shows that an oversensitivity of precipitation to both SST and vertical circulation (as represented by ω500) is inherent in the atmospheric models in both regions, with models using a spectral-type convective parameterization performing best in the Caribbean, but less separation between convective parameterization groups is seen in the western Pacific. The error in magnitude of precipitation for a given SST and vertical circulation causes uncoupled models to overestimate Caribbean and western Pacific mean precipitation. In coupled models, however, errors in the frequency of occurrence of SSTs (the distribution is cold biased in both regions) and deep convective vertical circul...

title: The Diurnal Cycle in the Tropics
abstract: A global archive of high-resolution (3-hourly, 0.58 latitude‐longitude grid) window (11‐12 mm) brightness temperature (Tb) data from multiple satellites is being developed by the European Union Cloud Archive User Service (CLAUS) project. It has been used to construct a climatology of the diurnal cycle in convection, cloudiness, and surface temperature for all regions of the Tropics. An example of the application of the climatology to the evaluation of the climate version of the U.K. Met. Office Unified Model (UM), version HadAM3, is presented. The characteristics of the diurnal cycle described by the CLAUS data agree with previous observational studies, demonstrating the universality of the characteristics of the diurnal cycle for land versus ocean, clear sky versus convective regimes. It is shown that oceanic deep convection tends to reach its maximum in the early morning. Continental convection generally peaks in the evening, although there are interesting regional variations, indicative of the effects of complex land‐sea and mountain‐valley breezes, as well as the life cycle of mesoscale convective systems. A striking result from the analysis of the CLAUS data has been the extent to which the strong diurnal signal over land is spread out over the adjacent oceans, probably through gravity waves of varying depths. These coherent signals can be seen for several hundred kilometers and in some instances, such as over the Bay of Bengal, can lead to substantial diurnal variations in convection and precipitation. The example of the use of the CLAUS data in the evaluation of the Met. Office UM has demonstrated that the model has considerable difficulty in capturing the observed phase of the diurnal cycle in convection, which suggests some fundamental difficulties in the model’s physical parameterizations. Analysis of the diurnal cycle represents a powerful tool for identifying and correcting model deficiencies.

title: Diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation in a general circulation model
abstract: Hourly averaged precipitation rates from an ensemble of the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) simulations for the 44-month period from January 1998 through August 2001 are compared to observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. In order to have adequate sampling by the satellite, comparisons are made for 15° longitude × 10° latitude boxes and for larger geographical areas within the tropics. The temporally and spatially averaged hourly precipitation rates from CCM3 and from TRMM are fit to the diurnal harmonic by the method of linear least squares regression, and the phases and the amplitudes of the diurnal cycles are compared. The model's diurnal cycle is too strong over major land masses, particularly over South America (200% too large), and is too weak over many oceans, particularly the northwestern tropical Pacific (57% too small). The model-satellite phase differences tend to be more homogeneous. The peak in the model's diurnal harmonic consistently precedes that of the observations nearly everywhere. Phase differences are large over Australia, Papua New Guinea, and Saharan Africa, where CCM3 leads TRMM by 4 hours, 5 to 6 hours, and 9 to 11 hours, respectively. The model's phase and amplitude biases likely have effects on its hydrologic cycle and its surface and atmospheric energy budgets. Thus the causes for the model's biases need to be investigated.

title: The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present)
abstract: The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version-2 Monthly Precipitation Analysis is described. This globally complete, monthly analysis of surface precipitation at 2.5° latitude × 2.5° longitude resolution is available from January 1979 to the present. It is a merged analysis that incorporates precipitation estimates from low-orbit satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit satellite infrared data, and surface rain gauge observations. The merging approach utilizes the higher accuracy of the low-orbit microwave observations to calibrate, or adjust, the more frequent geosynchronous infrared observations. The dataset is extended back into the premicrowave era (before mid-1987) by using infrared-only observations calibrated to the microwave-based analysis of the later years. The combined satellite-based product is adjusted by the rain gauge analysis. The dataset archive also contains the individual input fields, a combined satellite estimate, and error estimates for each field. This m...

title: Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP Version 2.1
abstract: The GPCP has developed Version 2.1 of its long-term (1979–present) global Satellite-Gauge (SG) data sets to take advantage of the improved GPCC gauge analysis, which is one key input. As well, the OPI estimates used in the pre-SSM/I era have been rescaled to 20 years of the SSM/I-era SG. The monthly, pentad, and daily GPCP products have been entirely reprocessed, continuing to require that the submonthly estimates sum to the monthly. Version 2.1 is close to Version 2, with the global ocean, land, and total values about 0%, 6%, and 2% higher, respectively. The revised long-term global precipitation rate is 2.68 mm/d. The corresponding tropical (25°N-S) increases are 0%, 7%, and 3%. Long-term linear changes in the data tend to be smaller in Version 2.1, but the statistics are sensitive to the threshold for land/ocean separation and use of the pre-SSM/I part of the record.

title: Global Precipitation: A 17-Year Monthly Analysis Based on Gauge Observations, Satellite Estimates, and Numerical Model Outputs
abstract: Gridded fields (analyses) of global monthly precipitation have been constructed on a 2.5° latitude–longitude grid for the 17-yr period from 1979 to 1995 by merging several kinds of information sources with different characteristics, including gauge observations, estimates inferred from a variety of satellite observations, and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. This new dataset, which the authors have named the CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), contains precipitation distributions with full global coverage and improved quality compared to the individual data sources. Examinations showed no discontinuity during the 17-yr period, despite the different data sources used for the different subperiods. Comparisons of the CMAP with the merged analysis of Huffman et al. revealed remarkable agreements over the global land areas and over tropical and subtropical oceanic areas, with differences observed over extratropical oceanic areas. The 17-yr CMAP dataset is used to investigate the annual and interannual variab...

title: Sensitivity of multiangle imaging to the optical and microphysical properties of biomass burning aerosols
abstract: The treatment of biomass burning (BB) carbonaceous particles in the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) Standard Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm is assessed, and algorithm refinements are suggested, based on a theoretical sensitivity analysis and comparisons with near-coincident AERONET measurements at representative BB sites. Over the natural ranges of BB aerosol microphysical and optical properties observed in past field campaigns, patterns of retrieved Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), particle size, and single scattering albedo (SSA) are evaluated. On the basis of the theoretical analysis, assuming total column AOD of 0.2, over a dark, uniform surface, MISR can distinguish two to three groups in each of size and SSA, except when the assumed atmospheric particles are significantly absorbing (mid-visible SSA � 0.84), or of medium sizes (mean radius � 0.13 mm); sensitivity to absorbing, medium-large size particles increases considerably when the assumed column AOD is raised to 0.5.  These results suggest specific refinements to the MISR Standard Aerosol Algorithm complement of component particles and mixtures. They also highlight the importance for satellite aerosol retrievals of surface reflectance characterization, with accuracies that can be difficult to achieve with coupled surface-aerosol algorithms in some higher AOD situations.

title: Multiangle imaging spectroradiometer (MISR) global aerosol optical depth validation based on 2 years of coincident Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) observations : Global aerosol system
abstract: Performance of the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) early postlaunch aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrieval algorithm is assessed quantitatively over land and ocean by comparison with a 2-year measurement record of globally distributed AERONET Sun photometers. There are sufficient coincident observations to stratify the data set by season and expected aerosol type. In addition to reporting uncertainty envelopes, we identify trends and outliers, and investigate their likely causes, with the aim of refining algorithm performance. Overall, about 2/3 of the MISR-retrieved AOT values fall within [0.05 or 20% x AOT] of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). More than a third are within [0.03 or 10% x AOT]. Correlation coefficients are highest for maritime stations (∼0.9), and lowest for dusty sites (more than ∼0.7). Retrieved spectral slopes closely match Sun photometer values for Biomass burning and continental aerosol types. Detailed comparisons suggest that adding to the algorithm climatology more absorbing spherical particles, more realistic dust analogs, and a richer selection of multimodal aerosol mixtures would reduce the remaining discrepancies for MISR retrievals over land; in addition, refining instrument low-light-level calibration could reduce or eliminate a small but systematic offset in maritime AOT values. On the basis of cases for which current particle models are representative, a second-generation MISR aerosol retrieval algorithm incorporating these improvements could provide AOT accuracy unprecedented for a spaceborne technique.

title: Laboratory investigation of photochemical oxidation of organic aerosol from wood fires 1: measurement and simulation of organic aerosol evolution
abstract: Experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of photo-oxidation on organic aerosol (OA) emissions from flaming and smoldering hard- and soft-wood fires under plume-like conditions. This was done by exposing the dilute emissions from a small wood stove to UV light in a smog chamber and measuring the gas- and particle-phase pollutant concentrations with a suite of instruments including a Proton Transfer Reaction Mass Spectrometer (PTR-MS), an Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) and a thermodenuder. The measurements highlight how atmospheric processing can lead to considerable evolution of the mass and volatility of biomass-burning OA. Photochemical oxidation produced substantial new OA, increasing concentrations by a factor of 1.5 to 2.8 after several hours of exposure to typical summertime hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations. Less than 20% of this new OA could be explained using a state-of-the-art secondary organic aerosol model and the measured decay of traditional SOA precursors. The thermodenuder data indicate that the primary OA is semivolatile; at 50°C between 50 and 80% of the fresh primary OA evaporated. Aging reduced the volatility of the OA; at 50°C only 20 to 40% of aged OA evaporated. The predictions of a volatility basis-set model that explicitly tracks the partitioning and aging of low-volatility organics was compared to the chamber data. The OA production can be explained by the oxidation of low-volatility organic vapors; the model can also reproduce observed changes in OA volatility and composition. The model was used to investigate the competition between photochemical processing and dilution on OA concentrations in plumes.

title: Methyl-nitrocatechols: atmospheric tracer compounds for biomass burning secondary organic aerosols.
abstract: Detailed chemical analysis of wintertime PM₁₀ collected at a rural village site in Germany showed the presence of a series of compounds that correlated very well with levoglucosan, a known biomass burning tracer compound. Nitrated aromatic compounds with molecular formula C₇H₇NO₄ (M(w) 169) correlated particularly well with levoglucosan, indicating that they originated from biomass burning as well. These compounds were identified as a series of methyl-nitrocatechol isomers (4-methyl-5-nitrocatechol, 3-methyl-5-nitrocatechol, and 3-methyl-6-nitrocatechol) based on the comparison of their chromatographic and mass spectrometric behaviors to those from reference compounds.Aerosol chamber experiments suggest that m-cresol, which is emitted from biomass burning at significant levels, is a precursor for the detected methyl-nitrocatechols. The total concentrations of these compounds in the wintertime PM₁₀were as high as 29 ng m⁻³, indicating the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) originating from the oxidation of biomass burning VOCs contributed non-negligible amounts to the regional organic aerosol loading.

title: Inverse modeling of biomass burning emissions using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index for 1997
abstract: We present results from an inverse model study to determine biomass smoke emissions for the year 1997 by comparison of modeled aerosol index (AI) with that measured by the EP TOMS instrument. The IMPACT model with Data Assimilation Office (DAO) meteorology data in 1997 is utilized to obtain aerosol spatial and temporal distributions. Then a radiative transfer model is applied to generate the modeled AI. A Bayesian inverse technique is applied to optimize the difference between the modeled AI and the EP TOMS AI in the same period by regulating monthly a priori biomass smoke emissions in seven predefined regions. The modeled AI with a posteriori emissions is generally in better agreement with the EP TOMS AI. The a posteriori emissions from Indonesia increase by a factor of 8–10 over the a priori emissions due to the Indonesian fires in 1997. The annual total a posteriori source increases by about 13% for the year 1997 (6.31 Tg/yr black carbon and 67.27 Tg/yr smoke) in the base scenario, with a larger adjustment of monthly emissions. The sensitivity of this result to the a priori uncertainties, the height of the smoke layer, the cloud screening criteria, the inclusion of an adjustment of emissions outside the main biomass burning regions, and the inclusion of the covariances between observations in different locations is discussed in a set of sensitivity scenarios. The sensitivity scenarios suggest that the inverse model results are most sensitive to the assumed uncertainty for a priori emissions and the altitude of aerosol layer in the model and are less sensitive to other factors. In the scenario where the uncertainty of a priori emissions is increased to 100% (300% in Indonesia), the total annual black carbon emission is increased to 6.87 Tg/yr, and the smoke emission increases to 73.39 Tg/yr. The a posteriori emissions in Indonesia in the scenario with increased uncertainty are in better agreement with both the TOMS AI and with previous estimates for the Indonesian fires in 1997. In the scenario where biomass smoke from large fires are elevated by 1 km in altitude, the annual total black carbon emissions are 5.68 Tg/yr, and the smoke emissions are 60.44 Tg/yr, almost unchanged from the a priori emissions.

title: CERES Edition-2 Cloud Property Retrievals Using TRMM VIRS and Terra and Aqua MODIS Data—Part II: Examples of Average Results and Comparisons With Other Data
abstract: Cloud properties were retrieved by applying the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project Edition-2 algorithms to 3.5 years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Visible and Infrared Scanner data and 5.5 and 8 years of MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from Aqua and Terra, respectively. The cloud products are consistent quantitatively from all three imagers; the greatest discrepancies occur over ice-covered surfaces. The retrieved cloud cover (~59%) is divided equally between liquid and ice clouds. Global mean cloud effective heights, optical depth, effective particle sizes, and water paths are 2.5 km, 9.9, 12.9 μm , and 80 g·m-2, respectively, for liquid clouds and 8.3 km, 12.7, 52.2 μm, and 230 g·m-2 for ice clouds. Cloud droplet effective radius is greater over ocean than land and has a pronounced seasonal cycle over southern oceans. Comparisons with independent measurements from surface sites, the Ice Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite, and the Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System are used to evaluate the results. The mean CERES and MODIS Atmosphere Science Team cloud properties have many similarities but exhibit large discrepancies in certain parameters due to differences in the algorithms and the number of unretrieved cloud pixels. Problem areas in the CERES algorithms are identified and discussed.

title: Particle Growth and Drop Collection Efficiency of Warm Clouds as Inferred from Joint CloudSat and MODIS Observations
abstract: This study describes an approach for combining CloudSat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations to investigate the microphysical processes of warm clouds on the global scale. MODIS column optical thickness is vertically distributed between the cloud top and cloud bottom according to adiabatic and condensational growth assumptions and used as a vertical coordinate system to analyze profiles of CloudSat-observed radar reflectivity. The reflectivityprofiles thus rescaled as a function of the in-cloud optical depth clearly depict how the cloud-to-rain particle growth processes take place within the cloud layer and how these processes vary systematically with variations in MODIS-derived effective particle radius. It is also found that the effective radii retrieved using two different wavelengths of MODIS tend totracethe microphysical change of reflectivity profiles in a different way because of the difference in the layer depth that characterizes these two effective radii. The reflectivity profiles as a function of optical depth are also interpreted in terms of drop collection processes based on the continuous collection model. The slope of the reflectivity change with optical depth provides a gross measure of the collection efficiency factor. The systematic changes of reflectivity profiles with MODIS-derived particlesizesaretheninterpretedasdemonstratingastrongdependencyofthecollectionefficiencyonparticlesize. Theseresultsprovideaquantitativeinsightintothedropcollectionprocessofwarmcloudsintherealatmosphere.

title: Influence of the 2006 Indonesian biomass burning aerosols on tropical dynamics studied with the GEOS-5 AGCM
abstract: The direct and semidirect effects of aerosols produced by Indonesian biomass burning (BB) during August–November 2006 on tropical dynamics have been examined using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5, (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Simulations were driven by two sets of aerosol forcing fields calculated offline by a separate aerosol transport model, one that included Indonesian BB aerosol emissions and one that did not. In order to separate the influence of the aerosols from internal model variability, the means of two ten-member ensembles were compared. Diabatic heating from BB aerosols increased temperatures over Indonesia between 150 and 400 hPa. The higher temperatures resulted in strong increases in upward grid-scale vertical motion, which increased water vapor and CO over Indonesia. In October, the largest increases in water vapor were found in the midtroposphere (∼25%) while the largest increases in CO occurred just below the tropopause (80 ppbv or ∼50%). Diabatic heating from the Indonesian BB aerosols caused CO to increase by 9% throughout the tropical tropopause layer in November and 5% in the lower stratosphere in December. The results demonstrate that aerosol heating plays an important role in the transport of BB pollution and troposphere-to-stratosphere transport. Changes in vertical motion and cloudiness induced by aerosol heating can also alter the transport and phase of water vapor in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere.

title: Black carbon semi-direct effects on cloud cover: review and synthesis
abstract: Absorbing aerosols (AAs) such as black carbon (BC) or dust absorb incoming solar radiation, perturb the temperature structure of the atmosphere, and influence cloud cover. Previous studies have described conditions under which AAs either increase or decrease cloud cover. The effect depends on several factors, including the altitude of the AA relative to the cloud and the cloud type. We attempt to categorize the effects into several likely regimes. Cloud cover is decreased if the AAs are embedded in the cloud layer. AAs below cloud may enhance convection and cloud cover. AAs above cloud top stabilize the underlying layer and tend to enhance stratocumulus clouds but may reduce cumulus clouds. AAs can also promote cloud cover in convergent regions as they enhance deep convection and low level convergence as it draws in moisture from ocean to land regions. Most global model studies indicate a regional variation in the cloud response but generally increased cloud cover over oceans and some land regions, with net increased low-level and/or reduced upper level cloud cover. The result is a net negative semi-direct effect feedback from the cloud response to AAs. In some of these climate model studies, the cooling effect of BC due to cloud changes is strong enough to essentially cancel the warming direct effects.

title: Chemical and dynamical effects on cloud droplet number: Implications for estimates of the aerosol indirect effect: CHEMISTRY, DYNAMICS, AND DROPLET NUMBER
abstract: Most aerosol-cloud-climate assessment studies use empirical aerosol number/droplet number relationships, which are subject to large variability. Historically, this variability has been attributed to unresolved variations in updraft velocity. We revisit this postulation and assess the effects of both updraft velocity and chemical composition on this variability. In doing so we utilize an inverse modeling approach. Using a detailed numerical cloud parcel model and published aerosol characteristics, with published correlations of cloud droplet versus sulfate and cloud droplet versus aerosol number as constraints, we determine a most probable size distribution and updraft velocity for polluted and clean conditions of cloud formation. A sensitivity analysis is then performed to study the variation in cloud droplet number with changes in aerosol chemistry and updraft velocities. This addresses the need to estimate the importance of chemical effects on spatial scales relevant for global climate models. Our analysis suggests that the effect of organic surfactants can introduce as much variability in cloud droplet number as the effect of expected variations in updraft velocity. In addition, the presence of organics seems to further enhance the sensitivity of droplet concentration to vertical velocity variability. The variability from organic surfactants is seen to be insensitive to variations in aerosol number concentration, implying that such effects can affect cloud droplet number consistently over large spatial scales. Our findings suggest that organics can be as important to the aerosol indirect effect as the effect of unresolved cloud dynamics, and they illustrate the potential and complex role of chemical effects on aerosol-cloud interactions.

title: Fire parameterization on a global scale
abstract: We present a convenient physically based global-scale fire parameterization algorithm for global climate models. We indicate environmental conditions favorable for fire occurrence based on calculation of the vapor pressure deficit as a function of location and time. Two ignition models are used. One assumes ubiquitous ignition, the other incorporates natural and anthropogenic sources, as well as anthropogenic fire suppression. Evaluation of the method using Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research temperature and relative humidity, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Leaf Area Index as a proxy for global vegetation density gives results in remarkable correspondence with global fire patterns observed from the MODIS and Visible and Infrared Scanner satellite instruments. The parameterized fires successfully reproduce the spatial distribution of global fires as well as the seasonal variability. The interannual variability of global fire activity derived from the 20-year advanced very high resolution radiometer record are well reproduced using Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation models climate simulations, as is the response to the climate changes following the eruptions of El Chichon and Mount Pinatubo. In conjunction with climate models and data sets on vegetation changes with time, the suggested fire parameterization offers the possibility to estimate relative variations of global fire activity for past and future climates.

title: Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model
abstract: Fire is an integral Earth System process that interacts with climate in multiple ways. Here we assessed the parametrization of fires in the Community Land Model (CLM-CN) and improved the ability of the model to reproduce contemporary global patterns of burned areas and fire emissions. In addition to wildfires we extended CLMCN to account for fires related to deforestation. We compared contemporary fire carbon emissions predicted by the model to satellite-based estimates in terms of magnitude and spatial extent as well as interannual and seasonal variability. Long-term trends during the 20th century were compared with historical estimates. Overall we found the best agreement between simulation and observations for the fire parametrization based on the work by Arora and Boer(2005). We obtained substantial improvement when we explicitly considered human caused ignition and fire suppression as a function of population density. Simulated fire carbon emissions ranged between 2.0 and 2.4 Pg C/year for the period 1997–2004. Regionally the simulations had a low bias over Africa and a high bias over South America when compared to satellite-based products. The net terrestrial carbon source due to land use change for the 1990s was 1.2 Pg C/year with 11% stemming from deforestation fires. During 2000–2004 this flux decreased to 0.85 Pg C/year with a similar relative contribution from deforestation fires. Between 1900 and 1960 we predicted a slight downward trend in global Correspondence to: S. Kloster (silvia.kloster@zmaw.de) fire emissions caused by reduced fuels as a consequence of wood harvesting and also by increases in fire suppression. The model predicted an upward trend during the last three decades of the 20th century as a result of climate variations and large burning events associated with ENSOinduced drought conditions.