System Development of Estimated Figures of Volume Production Plan

The relevance of this problem is primarily determined by a necessity of improving production efficiency in conditions of innovative development of the economy and implementation of Import Substitution Program. The purpose of the article is development of set of criteria and procedures for the comparative assessment of alternative volume production plans and choice of optimum alternative. The leading method of the study of the problem is economic mathematical modeling, providing the variability of volume plan development on the basis of different factors and variables, which reflect actual operating standards of a particular study subject. The results of the study: In the article, economic mathematical model for development of aggregate production plan was presented, on the basis of which alternatives was produced, estimated figures, characterizing efficiency of derived alternatives, were justified, the key factors, which determine a specific set of variables and constraints, were considered. The article materials can be useful for experts, which are specialized in planning of production and distribution of the production program in choosing optimum alternative of aggregate production plan.  dealing with production output optimization, providing compliance between production capacity and market demand level, effective using of working hours. In the most general meaning, volume plan provides the conversion of annual (or quarterly) current plans in more detailed production plans, specifying volume of production output, and based on the checking out compliance with the existing enterprise resources. Theoretical basics of volume production planning in the national literature and practice were laid by K.G Tatevosov (1985) Aggregate planning issues have been further developed in the works of authors, among which the most promising, in our opinion, are the results of scientific researches of R.I Kurlyandchik (1989) V.V Tsarev (2002) and P. Alac (2015) Noticing the authors' considerable contribution in solution of the problem, it should be noted that the issues of providing compliance between production capacity and market demand level require further development of theoretical basics, as well as application aspects. Thus, the methods and techniques for solution of volume planning problems, proposed in the monograph (Kurlyandchik, 1989) have not lost their relevance in market economy, but unfortunately, they are increasingly aimed at solution the problem of distribution of existing production program of schedule date. There is no doubt, that a presented variety of economic and mathematical models (Tsarev, 2002) which deserve attention, was reduced to development of production program based on various criterion of estimation. Key purpose of any industrial enterprise is the most effectively meet the needs of target market, which means promptitude of product delivery in required volume with appropriate quality level based on rational use of resources. In its turn, it leads to the problem solution of clear proportions compliance between market demand level and using of production capacities. The process of achievement such an optimal combination has rather controversial character (Brazhnikov, 2007) At least due to the fact that the result of predictable market demand level can only be expressed in probabilistic assessments, and flexibility of enterprise production capacity is limited by configuration and structure of installed equipment. The basis of allocation of development process of volume plans from the general planning system is based on a hierarchy of sequential managerial decision making for development of enterprise production capacity. The advantage of sequential hierarchical planning consists in decentralization of decision making process. Each level of plan development uses smaller volume (in comparison with full database of production plan development system) of source data and has a simple structure. Development of such a detailed schedule for providing problem solution of production capacity compliance rests on the impassable barrier market demand structure. In conditions of multiply of stock items planning process causes serious contradictions. Nowadays, the overwhelming majority of enterprises, which are concerned about decision of problem of production program distribution, make process of plan volume development by giving the intuition behind, its own "past experience" by attempts and mistakes. W. Stevenson (1998) sharing the view of many practitioners, rightly points out that mathematical approaches have not received proper spread due to different reasons 6878 M. A. BRAZHNIKOV ET AL. The first is complexity of the mathematical rationale and calculation, as well as a high difficulty in preparation of source information. For example, in one method called "linear solution rule" it is development of production cost function. Secondly, due to a number of economic assumptions, which make mathematical model not quite realistic. The main constraints of linear programming is the necessity in providing linear relationship between different variables, as well as presence of one criterion for solving the problem, but in practice, an enterprise pursues several goals at once The third is that some methods lead to solutions, which are not feasible in practical conditions. It refers to simulation modeling methods, which consider manufacturing enterprise as a close, rather than an open system. The main problem, which limits the spread of the presented methods, is "closeness" of algorithm for solving the problem due to mathematical complexity (Kozlowsky, Markina Makarov, 1998) The manager usually seeks to understand how and why models work, and in what decision making algorithm is concluded. It allows to justify their choice in favor of one or another alternative solution more accurate. At the same time, when process of decisionmaking is confidential, a manager does not feel himself belonging to the established alternative, moreover he cannot explain why we should take the proposed (by a model) version of a plan as a basis. By the reason of such "distrust" to mathematical methods and models, many managers use an intuitive approach for development of aggregate production plan for choice of appropriate managerial decision. It is the most convenient approach, which can be used by a manager, which is responsible for volume plan development. Due to the fact, that this method is based on experience and intuition, so it allows to take into account a lot of different (and often controversial) factors in development process. In quantitative methods (mathematical models) a part of factors is ignored in order to simplify a situation. At the same time, result validity of such an approach usually is in doubt. Certain company services mostly project their own interests. Understanding the difference in purposes, we can say with confidence that production plan, based on intuitive approach, would be largely subjective and not optimal. A key problem of volume planning lies not only in development of "transparent" algorithm for production scheduling, but also in justifying choice of "unique correct one" alternative. Choice of estimated criteria should be based on achievement of purposes of operating strategy.