English: Table of contents INTRODUCTION ________________________________________________________________________ iii CHAPTER 1 EARTH’S NATURAL CLIMATE __________________________________________ 1 The natural global climate system ____________________________________________1 The global heat engine ________________________________________________1 Incoming solar radiation ______________________________________________2 Outgoing heat radiation ______________________________________________3 Climatic balance __________________________________________________________4 Climate of the past ________________________________________________________5 Reconstructing climate ________________________________________________5 The past million years ________________________________________________7 The last 2000 years __________________________________________________9 The last hundred years ________________________________________________9 CHAPTER 2 ENHANCING THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT ______________________________13 Carbon dioxide __________________________________________________________13 Methane ______________________________________________________________17 Other greenhouse gases __________________________________________________18 Other human influences __________________________________________________19 CHAPTER 3 PREDICTING CLIMATES ________________________________________________21 Mathematical climate models ______________________________________________21 Model projections for the future ____________________________________________23 Are humans already causing the Earth to warm?________________________________26 CHAPTER 4 A WARMER WORLD __________________________________________________29 Natural terrestrial ecosystems ______________________________________________29 Agricultural ecosystems __________________________________________________30 Coastal regions __________________________________________________________31 Other impacts __________________________________________________________33 Implications for global security ____________________________________________33
French: Table des matières INTRODUCTION ________________________________________________________________________ iii CHAPITRE 1 LE CLIMAT NATUREL DE LA TERRE______________________________________ 1 Le système climatique naturel de la Terre ______________________________________1 Le moteur thermique de la planète ______________________________________1 Le rayonnement solaire incident ________________________________________2 Le rayonnement thermique sortant ______________________________________3 L’équilibre du climat ______________________________________________________4 Les climats du passé ______________________________________________________5 La reconstruction du climat ____________________________________________5 Le dernier million d’années ____________________________________________7 Les 2000 dernières années ____________________________________________9 Les 100 dernières années ______________________________________________9 CHAPITRE 2 L ’AMPLIFICATION DE L ’EFFET DE SERRE ________________________________13 Le dioxyde de carbone ____________________________________________________13 Le méthane ____________________________________________________________17 Les autres gaz à effet de serre ______________________________________________18 Les autres influences humaines ____________________________________________19 CHAPITRE 3 PRÉVOIR LE CLIMAT __________________________________________________21 Les modèles mathématiques du climat________________________________________21 Les modélisations pour l’avenir ____________________________________________23 L’homme est-il responsable du réchauffement de la Terre? ________________________26 CHAPITRE 4 UNE PLANÈTRE PLUS CHAUDE ________________________________________29 Les écosystèmes terrestres naturels __________________________________________29 Les écosystèmes agricoles __________________________________________________30 Les régions côtières ______________________________________________________31 Les autres impacts ______________________________________________________33 Les implications pour la sécurité mondiale ____________________________________33